Tag: exchange rate

  • Economy: We’re doing everything to stem inflation, exchange rate crises – FG

    Economy: We’re doing everything to stem inflation, exchange rate crises – FG

    The federal government is deploying all required measures, including devoting various ministries and agencies under its control, to stemming the rising inflation as well as stabilizing the foreign exchange rates, for the prosperity and comfort of all Nigerians.

    Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris gave the assurance on Sunday, January 28, in a statement issued in Abuja.

    He also assured that all perpetrators of the resurgent violence and killings in Plateau state would be apprehended and prosecuted, especially as the government is currently facing the issue of security boldly.

    Idris, who attended the Daily Trust Dialogue on Thursday, emphasized President Bola Tinubu administration’s initiatives aimed at improving the quality of life for all Nigerians.

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    Meanwhile, at the same event, the President of the Nigerian Labour Congress, Comrade Joe Ajaero, criticized the administration’s policies and reforms, portraying them as detrimental to the populace.

    In an attempt to shed light on the government’s endeavors and strategies to alleviate the challenges faced by Nigerians, the Minister highlighted various programs and initiatives aimed at mitigating the impact of current circumstances.

    He also cautioned against fifth columnists who spread misinformation and sow division, emphasizing the need for unity.

    He said: “In the area of security, all threats are being boldly confronted. We are taking the fight to the criminals’ dens, with promising results. Within the last week, several bandits, kidnappers and militants have been neutralized or arrested.

    “The resurgent crisis in Plateau State is indeed highly regrettable, and we assure that all perpetrators of violence there, and everywhere else in the country, are being brought to book. Justice will be done, and peace will be restored in all affected communities. We salute the gallantry of security and intelligence agencies who are leaving no stone unturned to ensure that we are safe in our homes and on the highways, and that criminals have no breathing space.

    “Regarding the economy, all relevant Ministries and Agencies of the Federal Government are working in coordinated fashion, to bring down inflation, stabilize foreign exchange rates, and create a truly enabling environment for business and investment. The Nigeria that President Tinubu seeks to build is one where no one is left behind.

    “Impactful interventions are being rolled out, including a Students’ Loan Scheme, a Presidential Initiative to deploy lower-cost CNG mass transit buses to provide alternatives to petrol and diesel, and various low-interest loan schemes for businesses. The CNG interventions will bring down the cost of transportation by more than 50 percent. We urge Nigerians to take advantage of these opportunities as they emerge, as they have been designed for the benefit of all”, he said.

    Warning about elements focused on causing harm to the peace and progress of the country, he said: “Even as we tackle our challenges with urgency and dedication, it is also necessary to remind all Nigerians of the need to resist all forces and narratives of misinformation and division.

    “For example, it is not true that the relocation to Lagos of the Headquarters of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), and of certain departments of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), are political moves aimed at marginalizing a section of the country. These allegations are unfounded. Instead, these are pragmatic administrative steps to improve operational efficiency and reduce operating costs.

    “I would like to urge all Nigerians to be especially mindful of all persons and groups at home and abroad, who specialize in making false and inciting claims on radio, TV and social media, as well as in peddling altered videos and images for viral dissemination. We must all stand together as one, against these forces that constantly seek to test and break the bonds that hold us”, he said.

    He reminded Nigerians that achieving the desired society and living space in Nigeria is not an exclusive responsibility, but one requiring the active involvement and participation of all citizens.

    He also noted that being mindful of its role in achieving the model Nigeria, the federal government had introduced the Nigerian National Charter, spelling out the contract between Nigerians and the federal government.

    “Nigeria belongs to all of us, and the work of building the Nigeria of our dreams is one that must be done by everyone, regardless of our religious faith or ethnic group or geopolitical zone. It is for this reason that we have produced the Nigerian National Values Charter (NVC), a documentation of the social contract between Government and the citizens, as one of the ways to restore a national sense of hope, trust and solidarity”, he said.

    On the fight against corruption, Idris said “as part of this focus on earning the trust of Nigerians, the fight against corruption will continue, and will intensify. Determined to ensure that there are no sacred cows, and that public funds are applied wholly for the public good, President Tinubu is providing the anti-corruption agencies with the support required to fulfill their mandate.

    “We will not succeed at building the Nigeria of our dreams if we insist on focusing only on our challenges and problems, and not the abundant opportunities and positive narratives that we are surrounded by. We recognize the fact that the country continues to enjoy genuine enthusiasm for investment from local and foreign investors”, he said.

    On other successes and good news, he said “in the opening weeks of 2024, our Stock Market has already put us on the global map for the impressive returns being delivered. The Indian businesses that pledged $14 billion in new investment in Nigeria on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in India in September 2023 have since started making good on those pledges.

    “Across oil and gas, agriculture, consumer goods, renewable energy, healthcare, ICT and many other fields we are seeing global and local businesses demonstrating unshakable belief in the limitless possibilities that Nigeria embodies.

    “The heartwarming exploits of our beloved Super Eagles at the ongoing African Cup of Nations in Cote d’Ivoire are another case in point; a timely reminder that the things that bind us together as one are much deeper than the things that separate and divide us.

    “Let us never forget what is truly possible: that instead of division and hatred, we can live and thrive in unity and hope, assured that, despite the temporary challenges and setbacks that we face from time to time, a glorious dawn is just around the corner”, he said.

  • Inflation, exchange rate to decline, says CBN

    Inflation, exchange rate to decline, says CBN

    • Projects less revenue from oil export next year
    • ’N18.8b total trade balance in Q3 of 2023’

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), yesterday, declared in Abuja that rising inflation and exchange rates in the country will drastically reduce in 2024.

    The apex bank also projected less revenue from oil exports in the 2024 fiscal year, just as it declared that total trade from Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), stood at N18.804 billion in the third quarter (Q3) of 2023.

    The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, made the assertions in his presentation at the National Assembly joint committee on Banking, Insurance and other Financial Institutions.

    Cardoso explained to members of the committee from both chambers of the National Assembly, that the outlook for domestic economy in Nigeria for next year is very positive as both inflation and exchange rates would withstand fluctuating pressures on them and get stabilised.

    “The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and expected to maintain the positive trajectory for 2024.

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    “Inflationary pressures may persist in the short-term but is expected to decline in 2024.  Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of foreign exchange market,” Cardoso said.

    He told the committee that the unification of the exchange rate windows in June 2023 has ushered in a new approach to the management of the exchange rate, aimed at reducing arbitrage, rent seeking behaviour and speculation in the market.

    “The policy aims at creating a market where the demand and supply of foreign exchange determines the exchange rate.

    “The premium has narrowed and our focus on increasing the autonomous FX supply, would lead to more stability and further narrowing of the premium.

    “Total trade in the third quarter of 2023, stood at N18.804.68billion. Exports were valued at N10.346.60 billion while total imports stood at N8.457.68billion.

    “This represents positive trade balance which would lead to increase of the external reserves,” he said.

    He however stated that due to domestic prevailing factors, less revenue would be earned from oil exports in 2024.

    He said: “We expect less revenue from oil exports due to the production limit of 1.78mbpd in 2024. OPEC approved quota for Nigeria is 1.8mbpd, which is higher than the 2024 budget assumption.

    “However, the country’s production has been below these thresholds. The budget benchmark for 2023 was 1.69mbpd, but the highest level of production during the year was about 1.35mbpd in Q3 of 2023.

    “The reasons for the underperformance of the oil production target include crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, production shut-ins and divestments by major oil companies.”

    Earlier, before the CBN Governor’s presentation, the Chairman of the joint committee,   Senator Tokunbo Abiru (APC-Lagos East), said the interactive session was organized for statutory briefing by CBN in line with extant laws.

    Co-Chairman of the committee, Hon Bahir Bello El-Rufai, in his remarks, commended the CBN governor and the entire management team on measures being put in place to stabilise the economy generally.

  • Increase in Customs’ exchange rate will hurt businesses’

    Increase in Customs’ exchange rate will hurt businesses’

    The increase in Customs’ exchange rate from N783 to N952 per dollar by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would worsen production and operating costs for businesses in the country.

    Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the increase would inflict more pains on the citizens, erode profit margins, reduce purchasing power and put the survival of businesses at an elevated risk.

    According to him, the frequent changes in rates is creating serious issues of uncertainty for investors and making the international trade process increasingly unpredictable.

    The CBN had on June 24, 2023 adjusted the exchange rate from N422.30 per dollar to N589 per dollar. On July 6, 2023, it was re-adjusted to N770.88 per dollar and on November 14, 2023, it was re-adjusted to N783.174 per dollar. The latest review took the rate to N951.941 per dollar.

    Yusuf noted that businesses were already contending with an incredibly difficult operating environment arising from severe macroeconomic headwinds.

    “The persistent currency depreciation is making access to intermediate products very difficult for manufacturers, energy cost remains very high, purchasing power is weak, investors confidence is declining and consumer confidence is on the downward trend. 

    “This is not a good time for the CBN to increase the exchange rate for the computation of import duty and the clearing of cargo by importers. This review will impact the cost of all imports, including raw materials for manufacturers, pharmaceutical products, machineries, energy products, petroleum products and many more.  This will make a bad situation worse for investors in the economy.   It will worsen the misery of the citizens amid an excruciating inflationary condition,” Yusuf said.

    He urged the CBN and the Coordinating Minister for the Economy to review the increase noting that trade policy measures should not be subjected to the full vagaries of the philosophy of market forces.

    According to him, the CBN should allow for a concessionary rate for the computation of import duty to protect the economy and the citizens from the reality of unbearable inflationary pressures.

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    “We propose that going forward, CBN should fix the customs duty rate at 20 per cent less than the official exchange rate in the light of the prevailing harsh economic conditions,” Yusuf said.

    He argued that the recent review would make the cost of importation through official channels even more prohibitive and this may result in many unintended outcomes including greater incentives for smuggling, shutting down of more industries that depend on imported raw materials, decline in  Customs’ revenue and worsening the inflation situation.

    He said the increase could worsen the poverty situation and the welfare conditions of the citizens, heighten corruption vulnerabilities in the international trade ecosystem and increase influx of substandard products amid high and increasing cost of products.

    He pointed out that the CBN Governor should work in line with his policy objective of giving economic policies a human face.

    CBN Governor had recently stressed the “need to develop stronger frameworks for measuring the human condition and ensure that policymakers and business leaders pay as much attention to these measures as they do to macroeconomic indicators”.

    “In the light of these realities, the CPPE recommends that the CBN should review its decision to increase the exchange rate for customs duty computation.  The frequency of rate reviews should also be reduced to minimize uncertainty and risk for investors,” Yusuf said.

  • FG targeting N650/$ exchange rate by December, says Oyedele

    FG targeting N650/$ exchange rate by December, says Oyedele

    The Federal Government is targeting to see the Naira exchange for N650 to the dollar by December this year.

    Nigerian financial expert, Taiwo Oyedele while speaking with Bloomberg predicted that the true value of the naira will be reflected by December.

    He said the government will be introducing new foreign exchange rules (already part of the recommendations his committee made to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu), including a crackdown on illegal currency trading, to help the naira reach a “fair price” of N650-750 to the dollar by year-end.

    Oyedele revealed that the government plans to clear a backlog of dollar demand, bolster the naira forward market, and set transparent rules for the official market.

    He added that the government also wants to expand the official market to include all legitimate transactions, while snuffing out the illicit “black market” for foreign currency.

    If Oyedele’s predictions are accurate, the naira could appreciate significantly in the coming months. This would have a number of positive implications for the Nigerian economy, including: Reduced inflation; Increased economic growth; Improved purchasing power for Nigerians; Increased foreign investment and job creation.

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    Overall, a stronger naira would be a positive development for Nigeria and its citizens.

    Oyedele during a presentation on “Building Resilience Through Domestic Revenue Mobilisation” at the inaugural session of the annual African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF) meeting in Cape Town, South Africa, on Tuesday called on other African countries to adopt a robust tax system that can adapt to the constantly evolving global economic landscape.

    He stressed the importance of designing an efficient tax system that offers stability and adaptability to help nations navigate uncertain times.

    In his presentation, Oyedele outlined key approaches to building a tax system that can withstand challenges.

    He underscored the necessity of modernization and the utilization of technology to improve tax collection and administration.

    He emphasized the importance of aligning tax policies with the ever-changing global economic landscape.

    According to Oyedele, “A resilient tax system should possess flexibility and agility to respond to changing circumstances and global shifts. It should be grounded in principles of transparency, fairness, and efficiency.”

    He also advocated for international collaboration and the sharing of information to address tax-related issues in an increasingly interconnected world.

    Oyedele concluded by reiterating that a resilient tax system isn’t just a means of revenue collection but is a fundamental pillar for a nation’s economic resilience and sustainable growth.

  • ‘CBN took several actions to stabilise exchange rate’

    Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele has spared no efforts in addressing issues that confronted the economy, especially foreign exchange challenges. He has over the last five years initiated far reaching policies that have impacted manufacturing, agricbusiness and Small and Medium Enterprises, reports Group Business Editor SIMEON EBULU.

    Emefiele assumed the headship of the apex bank in June 2014. Notwithstanding the circumstances that brought him into office, he was in every respect qualified for the job, having been at the headship of one of Nigeria’s leading and thriving banks-Zenith Bank Plc. He hit the ground running.

    There were issues that arrested his attention on assumption of office and to which he immediately addressed his mind. Foremost amongst them was Nigeria’s staggering and undulating foreign exchange rate in relation to the naira. On the Exchange rate management, as Emefiele remarked in one of his outings, “the CBN took several actions to stabilise the exchange rate amidst escalated pressures from speculators, bettors, round-trippers and rent-seekers.”

     

     Licensing of IMTOs   

    To forstall any scarcity or shortfall, the apex bank encouraged increased forex inflows from remittances by licensing International Money Transfer Organisations (IMTOs), fostered more forex sales into the interbank market and established the Investors-Exporters (I&E) Window.

    Over the intervening period,  these policies yielded some positive developments, Emefiele said, adding that the CBN managed to stabilise the exchange rate thereby creating certainty for both household and business decisions. “We have largely eliminated speculators and rent-seekers from the Foreign Exchange Market,” Emefiele said at a forum of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria.

    In view of the forex challenge,  the CBN chief said, nine additional IMTOs were licensed. With the increased number, net-transfers through these organisations rose steadily from about $600 million in 2014 to over $1.7 billion as at end-October 2018. He said in the face of resumed capital outflows due to rising yields globally, the CBN “maintained and, where necessary, fine-tuned these policies throughout the year so as to sustain exchange rate stability.”

     

    Naira–Renminbi Currency Swap

    Another area the apex bank took a cognitive stand in favour of driving international trade, was in its introduction of the Naira–Renminbi Currency Swap.

    The CBN chief explained that given the increasing level of bilateral trade between Nigeria and China and the growing importance of the renminbi in global markets, the apex bank and the People’s Bank of China reached an agreement in April 2018 to swap 15 billion Renminbi for N720 billion (equivalent to about US$2.5 billion).

    This deal, he explained, created the option of renminbi denominated transactions alongside to the hitherto exclusive use of US dollars for international transactions. He said the measure is expected to circumvent the influence, or use  of a third currency in trades between Nigeria and China, reduce the pressure on the naira exchange rate, and potentially boost exports to China and ease trade transactions between both countries.

    The CBN’s Development Finance Initiative (DFI) in recognition of it’s role as an agent of development  aimed at ensuring self-sufficiency in reducing Nigeria’s excessive dependence on imports, has become a developmental watershed of some sort

     

    Anchor Borrower Programme

    Its interventions at specific high impact sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, Micro Small and Medium Enterprises, (MSMEs), among others, come into play. In the agriculture sector, the Anchor Borrower Programme (ABP) has ensured that Nigeria is gradually emerging from being a net importer of rice to becoming a major exporter. The ABP is also being extended to other agricultural products.

    As at October 2018, a total of 834,225 farmers cultivating about 835,239 hectares have so far benefited from the programme, with over two million jobs already created across the country.

    These programmes under  Emefiele’s leadership, are being supported by others like the Accelerated Agricultural Development Scheme (AADS) which designed to engage 10,000 youths in agricultural production across the country. The scheme seeks to promote national food security through sustained and deliberate increase in agricultural production along its value chain. The scheme is also expected to foster a collaboration between the CBN and  the states, and other stakeholders to create jobs in the agricultural sector by focusing on commodities of comparative advantage.

     

    Credit Allocation

    As part of its long-term strategy for strengthening the economy, the CBN established initiatives to resolve the underlying challenges to long-term GDP growth, economic productivity, unemployment and poverty that had pervaded the economy space over in the past decades.

    It established the Credit Bureau and the National Collateral Registry to improve access to credit in the domestic economy. It equally took specific measures to increase credit allocations to pivotal productive sectors of the economy with a view to stimulating increased output in these sectors, so as to create jobs on a mass scale and significantly reduce the country’s import bills.

     

    Ease of doing business

    A number of these CBN policies and initiatives contributed to improving the ease of doing business in Nigeria. Specifically, the establishment of the Credit Bureau and the National Collateral Registry which improved access to credit in the domestic economy, contributed significantly. Besides the introduction of the transparent I&E FX Window which increased investor’ confidence and eased market sentiments, it also boosted the nation’s ease of doing business indicator.

    These efforts have yielded immense results with the economy exiting recession during the second  quarter of 2017. This recovery has been sustained for five consecutive quarters, while the  economy witnessed 18 straight months of disinflation to 11.1 per cent in July 2018 following a period of rising inflationary pressure which peaked at 18.7 per cent in January 2017.

    Of tremendous value to growing trade and commerce in the economy is the exchange rate stability at the foreign exchange markets with evident convergence continuing across all segments. At the Bureau De Change segment, there was a significant appreciation of the Naira from over N525/US$ in February 2017 to about N359/US$ in 2018 and this stability has been maintained.

    The overall Balance of Payments (BOP) account, the Emefiele said,  has remained positive since the fourth quarter of 2016, driven largely by positive Current Account Balances (CAB). As a percentage of GDP, BOP increased from 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 5.7 per cent in Q2 of 2018. This reflects the oil sector driven trade balance which grew from $2.3 billion to $8.4 billion over the period. The CAB and overall balances are expected to remain positive over the short-term given the expected continuation of favourable developments in the international oil market.

    To avoid further depletion in the nation’s reserves, Emefiele said the the CBN took a number of countervailing actions, including the prioritisation of the most critical needs for foreign exchange. In this regard, and in order of priority, the CBN decided to provide the available but highly limited foreign exchange to meet the  Matured Letters of Credit from Commercial Banks,  Importation of Petroleum Products, Importation of critical Raw Materials, Plants and Equipment, and Payments for School Fees, BTA (Bsasic Travel Allowance), PTA (Personal Travel Allowance) and related expenses

    Buttressing the strides attained by the CBN under Emefiele’s leadership, the former President/Chairman of Council at Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), Uju Ogunbunka, said the economy was not in its best shape when CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele took over, but  that a combination of sound monetary and fiscal policies made the CBN Governor, achieved good results as seen in the marginal growth in the economy. He  said Emefiele’s projection that the Nigerian economy would grow by three per cent in 2019, higher than the 1.93 per cent it achieved in 2018 is plausible.

    He also applauded the apex bank’s plan to continue to maintain a tight monetary policy stance to rein in inflation which was expected to rise to 12 per cent in the course of the year before moderating.

    Ogunbunka, who is also President, Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN), said the economy, under Emefiele, also saw the increase in the export of locally produced goods and attained sufficiency in local food production due to the introduction of the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme. He said the policies have helped to stabilise the interest rates, exchange rates, and as well as the inflation rates.

    He said the forex rate under Emefiele did not go out of control, because of some measures introduced by the regulator, including the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters (I&E) forex window.

    Ogunbunka said that Emefiele was also able to stabilise the banking sector by ensuring that no bank failed in the last five years, pointing out that the CBN’s decision to protect depositors’ funds in the defunct Skye Bank and its smooth takeover by Polaris Bank Limited, have raised bank customers’ confidence in the sector.

    The defunct Skye Bank relied on CBN’s intervention to stay afloat. The takeover and injection of N786 billion into Polaris Bank have kept it running efficiently. Emefiele had assured depositors that their funds were safe in any Nigerian bank, stressing that the banking sector’s stability remained a priority for the CBN.

    The regulators’ target was to save depositors’ funds and ensure the bank continued as a going concern, being a Systemically Important Bank (SIB).

    “I think the bridge bank option worked very well, and sometimes, the takeover of ailing banks by stronger ones ensured that the confidence in the banking sector is maintained,” Ogunbunka said.

     

    Forex Restrictions on 42 Items

    He said the CBN’s  restriction on 42 items from accessing foreign exchange (forex) impacted positively on manufacturing and real sector growth. More than two years after the policy, its objectives, such as encouraging local production of the items and boosting local industries suffocated by the importation of competing products, are being realised.

    He said the policy implementation was part of the home-grown solutions introduced by Emefiele to sustain forex market stability and ensure the efficient utilisation of available forex to grow critical segments of the economy. The policy implies that those who import these items can no longer buy forex from the official window to pay their suppliers, rather, they will have to source forex from the parallel market or Bureaux De Change (BDCs) to pay for imports.

    Emefiele had said the bank had been developing home-grown policies to surmount challenges that confronted the economy lately. “As I have always emphasised, it is our collective duty to ensure that the potential and prospects of the economy are optimally realised. The ongoing economic recovery requires the joint efforts and wise counsel of everyone, if we must take giant strides forward. The CBN is more determined now than ever to remain at the forefront of efforts to ensure that the rebound is not overturned,” he said.

    He said the political-economy had experienced significant challenges over the last few years, revealing its structural deficiencies, particularly with regards to its dependence on crude oil, as a major source of its revenue and foreign exchange. The 60 per cent decline in crude oil prices between 2015 and 2016 helped shape the trajectory of the economy, triggering the recession in the first quarter of 2016.

    The CBN chief assured that the regulator will always act in good faith, with the best available information and in cognizance of current economic conditions, to pursue the goals of price and financial system stability.

    “After a wave of scathing criticism that trailed some of our past policies, many of these measures are today widely applauded as brilliant and conscientious actions. As policymakers, our perspectives are typically different from those of the public; but our data, information and outlook remain superior. I therefore enjoin our critics to avoid being hasty in their condemnation of our policies”.

     

    Real sector support

    The N300 billion Real Sector Support Facility (RSSF) unveiled by the CBN under Emefiele is expected to enhance the flow of credit in the private sector and lift the economy. The facility will be used to support large enterprises for start-ups and expansion financing needs of N500 million and up to a maximum of N10 billion.

    Emefiele listed the real sector   targeted  by  the  facility  to include manufacturing,  agricultural  value  chain  and  select service sub-sectors.

    He said the facility is expected to improve access to Nigerian Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to fast-track the development of manufacturing, the agricultural value chain, as well as the services sub-sectors of the economy. It is also meant to increase output, generate employment, diversify the revenue  base, increase foreign exchange earnings and provide input for the industrial sector on a sustainable basis, he said.

    Emefiele explained that the fund will be managed by the Development Finance Department of the apex bank. He listed the activities to be covered under the facility as new startups and/or expansion projects in the manufacturing, agricultural value chain (non-primary product), pointing out that services and trading shall not be accommodated under this facility.

     

    CRR refunds

    The CBN under Emefiele has also boosted SMEs funding. The apex bank is pushing this by refunding Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to banks that fund projects in agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

    The CBN is also encouraging banks to lend to companies that are doing new capital expenditures and expansions to factories, using some of their CRR at nine per cent. These are not short-term loans, but long-term loans of seven years’, with two years’ moratorium on principal.

    This is about the first time in the history of this country where manufacturers would be able to take fixed interest rate loans for seven years. This will definitely give room for for long-term planning. The CBN has also made allowance for banks to apply for this facility if the objective of the intended investment for the loan is in projects that would lead to job creation.

    As an additional incentive, the CBN said it can refund the CRR of a bank that has engaged in lending in a new project, or an existing one in the agriculture or manufacturing sector as a way of utilising the CRR. So, anytime a bank lends to manufacturing or agric at the rate the CBN has prescribed, it would have its CRR refunded up to the amount it has lent. The guidelines incorporating these provisions are coming up any moment, Emefiele assured.

     

    Financial Inclusion

    The CBN’s policies on financial inclusion are yielding results. According to a report released by Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access (EFInA), about 2.6 million more people have embraced financial services. Under Emefiele, CBN’s policies and processes have led to improved financial access in various states.

    The apex bank’s policies on mobile money, agency banking, Know-Your-Customer (KYC),  insurance, and recently, Payment Service Banks (PSBs) expected to takeoff this year have helped to bring 2.6 million new customers to the financial system.

    The CBN chief has continued to take steps meant to deepen banking services in the economy, with the expectation that in Nigeria about 80 per cent financial inclusion rate could be attained  by the year 2020. The outcome of the Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access (EFInA) report released last year, is almost lending credence to this.. The survey showed that 63.6 per cent of Nigeria’s adult population now has access to financial services and only 36.6 per cent are now financially excluded.

    EFInA is a non-governmental organisation and a financial sector development organisation funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation towards promoting financial inclusion in Nigeria. The firm conducts surveys every two years so as to determine the situation of things regarding financial inclusion in the courtly.

    EFInA’s 2018 report came after a painstaking research carried out across the country, with 750 respondents in each of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and 27,470 interviews, which represents 97 per cent of the target samples of 28,380.

    The survey was anchored on several indicators, including banked population, remittances, savings with a bank, payments, received income, loan with a bank, and banking agents, among others.

    An increase of 1.4 per cent in the banked population from the 2016 to 2018 was found, a decrease of 2.2 per cent in remittances between in two years, and another decrease of 6.7 per cent in saving with a bank within the period. The indicators of payments, received income and banking agents all recorded increases of 3.4 per cent, 1.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectably, while loan with a lank remained static at 1.3 per cent.

     

    Agriculture:

    Under the CBN’s wide-ranging policies to propel the nation’s economy, certain intervention programmes have been put in place to catapult growth in given sectors of the economy. The aim is to improve domestic supply of these commodities and eventually moderate pressure on foreign reserves. The CBN’s Anchor Borrowers’ Programme which was piloted in Kebbi is about to pump one million metric tonnes of rice into the Nigerian market. This represents 20 percent of total consumption. By the time this is fully implemented nationwide, Nigeria will not only be self-sufficient in rice, but would become a major global producer of rice.

     

    Boosting Tomato Production

     The CBN believes in the need for Nigeria to attain self-sufficiency in the production and processing of tomatoes. In fact, the extant macroeconomic policy stance of the bank, is to support self-sufficiency in food production with the derivative benefits of increased job creation, poverty alleviation, economic growth and development. To boost local production and reposition Nigeria towards self-sufficiency in the country, the apex bank restricted forex access to importers of certain listed goods so they would not injure the interest of local producers of those goods.

     

    Forex allocation to key domestic manufacturing/ agric ventures.

    Ihe CBN has  extended its Anchor Borrowers’ Programme to the tomato industry by supporting key players in the Industry  through direct interventions and FX dispensations. Emefiele said development financing schemes have so far provided N10.7 billion in bridge financing for a number of companies in this order: Erisco Foods (N3.0 billion), Dangote Farms Limited I & II (N2.0 billion), Tropical General Investments (N1.99 billion), Savannah Integrated (N1.6 billion), Vegefresh Company (N1.5 billion), and others.

    He also indicated that the Firms in this industry also qualify for the 60:40 FX concession for domestic manufacturing businesses, which allows them increased access to FX needed to import critical and domestically unavailable inputs and raw materials.

    He restated the CBN’s readiness to continuing these efforts and also collaborating with relevant agencies to achieve these common objectives.

     

    Power

    With regards to power, the apex bank  is acting in conjunction with stakeholders in the power sector, and has established a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in the form of a low interest facility, to discharge existing legacy gas debts that had undermined gas supply to generating power plants in the country. This fund, which is about N213 billion, is aimed at improving investment and production in the power value chain.

     

    Micro, Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises

    These are recognised globally as the nucleus of sustainable growth, job creation and poverty reduction. In Nigeria, the greatest challenge confronting the 17.3 million MSMEs in operation, is constrained access to affordable financing; leading to an estimated financing gap of about N9.6 trillion. In view of this, the CBN established a N220 billion Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund (MSMEDF) to provide concessionary finance to MSMEs.

     

    Infrastructural Assistance for States

     On infrastructural support, the CBN chief said the apex bank has advanced N10 billion each to all 36 states  total N360 billion to finance specific infrastructural development projects in their states.

     

    Emergency Fiscal Spending

     In addition to the above, the apex bank disbursed about N350 billion to the Federal Ministry of Finance for emergency spending to boost the economy the  period the  economic was under recession.

     

    Improving Foreign Exchange Supply:

    In recognition of the enormous potential of Nigerians in Diaspora to adequately fund the FX market, the CBN has adopted the underlisted measures

    • Transfers and remittances through IMTOs are now sold via local banks to BDCs in order to sustain FX supply to other segment of the market. Banks that do not wish to sell directly to BDCs return such monies to the CBN for transmission to the BDCs;
    • Licensing of more IMTOs to ease the flow of inwards remittances and encourage much more inflows into the country;
    • Adoption of Travelex, which is an internationally known BDC, as a conduit for disbursing the remittances to BDCs, a decision totally accepted by the BDCs;
    • In addition to its Lagos office, Travelex will open outlets in Abuja and Kano to facilitate this role;

    On this basis, we have seen a gradual but consistent appreciation of the Naira in the BDC segment of the FX market.

    The Director-General, Africa Rice Center, Benin Republic, Dr. Harold Roy-Macauley has said Nigeria has overtaken Egypt as the largest rice producer in Africa, thereby lifting Nigeria as the largest rice producer at 4 million tonnes a year.

    The latest development is testament to the Federal Government and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) efforts to vastly improve the production of rice in the country.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, a financing model for small-holder farmers, is part of the Federal government’s efforts to boost the nation’s rice production, supply, distribution and consumption value chain.

    According to Roy-Macauley, Egypt was producing 4.3 tonnes annually but production has reduced by almost 40 per cent this year, attributing it to the Egyptian government decision to limit cultivated to preserve water resources.

    Egypt’s rice cultivation requires about 1.8 billion metres of water in evaporation, transpiration and irrigation each year.

    While Africa produces an average of 14.6 million tonnes of rough rice annually, Roy-Macauley said there were efforts to increase overall rice production in Africa but expressed doubts that it will curb rice importation as population has increased across the continent.

    He said consumers are looking for rice that is safe and certified.

    Roy-Macauley said, to meet expectations, his centre is ready to partner with Nigeria and other governments in Africa to train farmers, extension officers and exporters on best practice’s in cultivation and post- harvest care and to understand market requirements.

    He stressed the African rice value chain needs to be better integrated and be capable of competing with imported rice in terms of quality.

    The Director-General added that the goal to achieving rice self sufficiency is not just about on farm assistance but also involves introducing rice varieties that fit the diverse African agro-ecologies, improve irrigation facilities and disseminate rice growing techniques to farmers.

    Anchor Borrowers Program (APB); an initiative of the nation’s apex bank, has empowered thousands of rice farmers in the country, while working hand-in-hand with the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) to reach the farmers.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in January 2018 said it is determined to make Nigeria one of the largest rice producers and exporters in the world, making her less dependent on petroleum money.

    Speaking with journalists in Abia state, the apex bank’s Acting Director, Corporate Communication, Issac Okoroafor, underlined the preparedness of the CBN to make the dream come true, saying the country’s apex bank is determined to make Nigeria join other countries in the production and exportation of rice, so that there will be food security and more jobs for the teeming youths.

    He said: “This year, we are expecting that we will be self- sufficient in rice production, Nigeria will become a net exporter of rice because we have seen that most families now eat made-in-Nigeria rice.

    “We now eat rice grown fresh in Nigeria, not the rice we used to import from India, Vietnam, and Thailand, rice that was between seven to nine years old. Now we are eating farm fresh rice, grown, milled and packaged in Nigeria. You see, we are very proud of Nigerians because they responded to this.”

    Okoroafor said the Anchor Borrowers programme has been one of the most successful programs in this country, adding that it goes to show that, “when our people think well and we invest well, we can achieve a revolution, which is what Anchor Borrowers programme has achieved. We are continuing with it, we are expanding it.”

     

    Nigeria’s FX market is at its most liquid in four years

    …As foreign investors flood into bond market after Buhari victory…I & E window trades climb 120% to $4bn in one week

     

    Last updated Mar 10, 2019

    There are reasons to suggest that Nigeria’s foreign exchange market is at its most liquid since 2015.

    FX trading activity between Nigerian banks and their clients rose to a four-year high in February, as foreign investors pile into the bond market after a somewhat successful presidential election that saw President Muhammadu Buhari secure a second term in office.

    Total foreign exchange transactions in the month of February settled at a record $8.15 billion, implying a daily turnover of $407.38 million, according to figures released by FMDQ OTC, a securities trading platform.

    That’s about the most liquid the fx market has been since 2016 when acute foreign exchange shortages sent foreign investors fleeing and contributed to the country’s first economic contraction in a quarter of a century. The situation has been much better since then, and on the evidence of the recent fx activity, investor confidence is probably at its best since then.

  • Exchange rate will remain stable, says Cordros Capital

    Cordros Capital Limited, a Lagos-based investment group, has said Naira will continue on a stable curve through the remaining months of this year, although the slowdown in the catalytic oil sector could dampen overall economic growth.

    In its fourth quarter economic outlook, Cordros Capital stated that elevated dollar sale by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will persist on the back of sustained pent-up foreign exchange demand occasioned by continued offshore sell-offs.

    Analysts at Cordros Capital however noted that increased CBN inflow driven by higher crude oil price and prospects of $2.8 billion Eurobond, combined with strong foreign exchange reserves, currently at some $43.9 billion, would provide the apex bank with the back-up to sustain foreign exchange stability.

    “We believe the CBN has more than enough legroom to keep the naira at current level through the rest of the year,” Cordros Capital stated.

    The investment banking group however cut its Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth projection for 2018 to 1.9 per cent, citing slower-than-previously expected oil sector growth, flood-induced cutback in agriculture output, and the absence of structural reforms to propel sturdy manufacturing sector growth even as the forex market remains stable.

    “With the gains from base effect already dissipated, together with our expected higher month-on-month inflation over fourth quarter 2018 compared to 2017, we expect the year-on-year headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to sustain upward trajectory through the rest of the year. We now look for headline CPI of 11.54 per cent year-on-year in September and 12.71 per cent in December, with full year 2018 average of 12.37 per cent,” Cordros Capital stated.

    Inflation had resumed uptick in August 2018 as the impact of base effect induced gains waned. Notably, amidst sustained forex stability, the renewed pressure stemmed from food inflation which jumped 31 basis points to 13.16 per cent on year-on-year basis, while core inflation sustained its deceleration, driven by stable energy and electricity prices.

    According to analysts, going forward, the efforts of the Federal Government at ensuring continued cease-fire in the Niger-Delta region – especially with elections around the corner – combined with improved oil production following the lifting of force majeure on Forcados, will aid rebound in oil GDP.

    Cordros Capital expected crude production to average 2.00mb/d through the rest of year, hinged on expected crude production ramp up in the Trans-Forcados Terminal which has already resumed activities. Against that backdrop, analysts projected oil GDP growth of 1.5 per cent year-on-year and 2.5 per cent year-on-year for third quarter 2018 and fourth quarter 2018 respectively.

    On the other hand, crop and livestock outputs are expected to remain pressured, with the herdsmen and farmers clash largely unresolved, and exacerbated by the recent reported cases of flooding in the food producing areas. The reverberating effect will continue to drag Agriculture GDP. However, sustained momentum of Service GDP, combined with strong Construction GDP, is expected to neuter sluggish Agriculture GDP, with knock-on effect driving strong non-oil GDP. On Service sector, ICT and Transportation sector will dictate the pace of growth, with ICT playing the lead role. Specifically, for ICT, analysts estimate that active subscribers for voice and data usage over third quarter 2018 surged 15.7 per cent and 13.0 per cent respectively.

    “Overall, we project non-oil GDP growth of 1.87 per cent year-on-year and 2.08 per cent year-on-year for third quarter 2018 and fourth quarter 2018 respectively. On balance, we now look for third quarter 2018 and fourth quarter 2018 GDP growth of 1.83 per cent year-on-year, leaving full-year2018 estimate at 1.9 per cent as against 0.82 per cent in 2017,” Cordros Capital stated.

     

  • Textile workers seek reduction of exchange rate

    •’200 firms have shut’

    The Textile, Garments & Tailoring Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (TGTSSAN) has appealed to the Federal Government to reduce the exchange rate, particularly for the the textile sector.

    Its President, Ambi Karu, said the  textile sector has been performing dismally for many years,  attributing it to the difficulty in sourcing foreign exchange at affordable rate to enable investors import machines and other equipment for operation.

    He said: “More than 200 textile firms have been shut as a result of systemic challenges, while some have reduced their production, staff strength and remuneration of workers.

    “In fact, more than half of the surviving firms are classified as ailing, thus posing serious threat to the survival of the manufacturing sector. Without much discussion on this, you can see that the major challenge facing the sector is the inability of manufacturers to access foreign exchange as a result of its exorbitant rate coupled with its acute scarcity, which has been restricting the ability of manufacturers to import raw materials for production, as well as import necessary machines and spare parts.”

    Kanu said inadequate infrastructure, especially power, has resulted to the closing of many textile firms since they could not operate at high cost of production and remain in business.

    On the  influx of textile materials  the union chief said there was nothing stoping the government from putting a legislation in place to support the industry.

    He said there should be a policy to ban cheap textile materials imports, saying the borders should be patrolled by Customs officials to prevent smuggling.

    “The Nigeria Customs Service should be patriotic enough and eschew the act of conniving with smugglers to ruin the industry by allowing smuggled materials into the market,” he said.

    He pointed out that the ban foreign materials import would protect  indigenous firms, which would in turn,  strive to produce textiles of international standard. He urged the government to encourage made-in-Nigeria products, adding that this would boost the sector.

    He said: “You will recall that the “Made-in-Nigeria policy as applied to the auto industry was an aspect of the National Automotive Industry Plan.

    “That plan received broad-based acceptability by stakeholders, including the auto-producers. As good as that plan may be, it was not implemented to its letter and spirit. In our sector, it is not going to be the same given the fact that the cost of buying textile materials is never the same as that of buying automobiles. And don’t forget that our local textile manufacturers are really competing with their foreign counterparts.”

    Karu said there was the need for the government to formulate policies that would guarantee continuous survival of the textile industry in the country and ensure the effective implementation of the policies through the declaration of a “National Dressing Day” in local fabrics.

    “The implementation would boost the textile industry through influencing Nigerians to wear and decorate African fabrics. Apart from a special day, Nigerians should be encouraged to be adorning locally made textile such as Ankara to work during the week days; not only on Fridays, and weekends.”

    He said there was nothing wrong for the government to give the local textile firms a 90 per cent rebate on cost of generated power.

    He said this was necessary because between 30 per cent and 35 per cent of textile and garment manufacturing costs were energy-related.

    “In fact, the government should even consider giving the textile plants zero percent CBN interest loan to build embedded power plants or pipelines to get gas to their factories,” he said.

  • How to manage exchange rate regime, by Soludo

    How to manage exchange rate regime, by Soludo

    Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Charles Soludo yesteday advised the Federal Government to sustain the ban imposed on 41 items from access to foreign exchange (forex) through the official windows.

    He said instead of banning and unbanning the importation of goods, the government should increase tariff and there will be competitive exchange rate.

    Prof Soludo, who fielded questions from reporters on the sideline of the eighth Annual Pan-African 1:1 Investor Conference organised by Renaissance Capital at Intercontinental Hotel, Lagos, also said the trillions of naira warehoused with the CBN through the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) ought to have been used to provide liquidity in the economy that is in “avoidable” recession.

    He lamented that the fiscal side of the economy had become broken and dormant, adding that the era of multiple exchange rate must end.

    He said: “The first step in that direction, the mechanism is very clear and simple and the very first step in that direction is to eliminate the so- called 41 items that you said are ineligible for forex. You cannot unify the forex market with those kinds of things. Once you begin to discriminate and do all those kind of things for eligible transactions, you have two ways; if you don’t want those things to come in, you  use the exchange rate and then you use the commercial and trade policy.

    “Raise the tariffs on them but have a competitive exchange rate. If it is expensive for people to import, they would not import them but we have had this regime before, this whole concept of multiple array of this and that which is a huge distortion in the system and  we have just one policy today and another tomorrow. Eliminate that and have one single market for all these, and then you have the interbank market, it would work, period.

    “It has been done before, it is not rocket science, but the moment you allow these varying windows to arbitrarily determine them pegged and so on, the system will continue to hemorrhage.”

    To Soludo, what had happened in the last two months was akin to  taking 100 steps backward and now taking 10 or 15 forward. “That’s a good thing to applaud; it’s a good progress but it doesn’t remove the fact that you are still 90 to 85 steps short of where you ought to be; so the first step is to eliminate distortions, unify the market.

    “This has implications for what you call fiscal broken public finance. In a regime where you have the total re- current expenditure in excess of your total revenue, you know people talk about recurrent being 70 per cent of the budget, they are including the debt, but as a percentage of your total revenue, your recurrent expenditure is over 100 per cent which means as it is today, part of our borrowing is actually to finance recurrent expenditure.

    “I do not know any country, at least in the last 40 years, that has been able to achieve the kind of transformation that we desire in terms of the investment requirement that is needed to jumpstart (this economy). Our recurrent expenditure actually is in far excess of our fiscal revenue..and we are borrowing to consume so to speak. “That’s a fair sign that you see and you also see the borrowing thing, part of the borrowing requirement, the escalating borrowing by the government is also linked to the forex regime because government revenue is also partly dollar-denominated oil earnings.

    “What you have is that you get the earnings and convert it into naira for  the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) at may be between the range of 305 to 315; that’s the rate of the interbank, and whereas the general price level has adjusted at the rate of the parallel market rate. Now that gap will continue. And you keep borrowing, because if the exchange rate were to be much more determined,  it would not be 305 and the fiscal buffer that you would immediately get can actually close that gap.

    “So the huge borrowings that you keep having at all levels of government can be eliminated. The price level has already adjusted because that’s the primary price indicator in the market. The prices that people hear, the exchange rate that people talk about is the parallel market rate. Anybody who says  it is irrelevant is not discussing Nigeria as an economy. The official one is like the time when you had the price control regime.

    “Even those who had accessed forex at the official rate, when they are fixing their prices, they are fixing their prices in comparison with the imported ones which are taking signals from the parallel market rate. So the general price level has adjusted there. This is redundant. This is just for rent for the arbitrary allocations. So, in other words, you know that there are also implications for the fiscal.”

    Prof Soludo lamented that at politics has constrained  economic managemnt, adding that the aggregate of Federal Government revenue is between three and  five  per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) which is one of the lowest in the world.

  • BDC directors move to close exchange rate gaps

    BDC directors move to close exchange rate gaps

    •CBN sells $768m to manufacturers, airlines 

    Directors of over 3,000 Bureaux De Change (BDCs) will meet today, in Lagos, to agree  on ways to force down dollar rates and narrow the rising gaps between official and parallel market rates.

    The emergency meeting followed last week’s sudden depreciation of the naira against dollar, which the BDCs said was against their business interest and economy. The naira closed last Friday at N395/$ in the parallel market, after stabilizing at N380/$ the previous week. With official rate at N306.15/$, gap between it and parallel market rate widened to N88.85 as at Friday.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) statement  yesterday showed it sold $768 million to airlines, agriculture, petrol and raw material/machineries importers, among others at the marginal rate of N310/$. Details of the transactions showed that the retail and Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS) got $418 million while $350 million went to wholesale auction, Business Travel /Personal Travel Allowances, and school fees. The BDCs bought at N360/$ while short-tenured Forwards of 7-30-day maturity will be sold this week to meet demand of manufacturers and all other forex users.

    President, Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) Aminu Gwadabe, said today’s BDC Directors Meeting with the theme: Role of BDCs in Price Stability- Realities and Compliance would be used to warn erring BDC directors on the consequence of violating operating guidelines.

    He said the BDCs would continue to support CBN’s exchange rate stability objective and ensure that official and parallel market rate convergence was achieved.

    “We want BDC Directors to know the gains of price stability, rate harmonisation and regulatory compliance. Operators with infractions will face penalties. We did it in 2006 when the BDC window was first opened. We helped the CBN to narrow the huge gap between official and parallel market rates. We are ready to do it again,” he said.

    Gwadade said the BDCs helped the CBN to narrow the exchange rate gap from N520 to the present rate, and will continue to achieve better results as the CBN continues to fund BDCs with increased dollar allocations.

    “We are ready to partner with the CBN to ensure there is rate convergence. We want to make the market transparent, accountable and secure for the economy, investors and Nigerians in Diaspora so that more dollars will be attracted into the economy to strengthen the local currency,” he said.

    Gwadabe said the BDC directors the owned the business, and should understand they carry corporate governance burden, and will be sanctioned when their operations run contrary to CBN’s guidelines.

    “We want the BDC directors to fully take charge of their businesses, because they will be punished if anything goes wrong. We also want the public to know that BDCs are not criminals, but remain critical partner of the CBN in ensuring that price and exchange rate stability are achieved,” he said.

    The ABCON boss said BDCs’ capital is eroded anytime exchange rates go up, and naira is depreciated.  “We suffer financial losses anytime the naira depreciates. We want a better and harmonised exchange rate,” he said.

    He praised the CBN for giving each BDC $20,000 last week, adding that the funds will help to further strengthen the naira against the dollar. “We expect that the $20,000 given to us will go a long way to douse the tension in the market even as we urge the CBN to continue to boost liquidity in the market,” he said.

  • Recession, exchange rate adjustment and growth

    Recession, exchange rate adjustment and growth

    For more than two years now, Nigeria has been in a recession, one of the worst in its recent economic and financial history. Last year, the economy contracted by 1-3 per cent, the exchange rate of the naira against the US$ fell sharply as a result of falling oil revenues, and the inflation rate rose to nearly 18 per cent. All these economic and financial indicators caused much concern in our country. The direct consequences of the sudden downturn in the domestic economy included massive job losses, large federal budget deficits, a resort to both internal and external borrowing to cover the huge deficits, and a loss of investors’ confidence in our economy.

    Obviously, something radical and drastic needed to be done to stabilise the domestic economy and bring it back into equilibrium. In all this, domestic factors are clearly important. Some of these include our high population growth rate (averaging 3 per cent), mass poverty, high rate of unemployment, high infant mortality rates, low literacy rates, terrorist activities, a fragile political system and institutional weaknesses. All these make it more difficult to effect the necessary structural adjustment to tackle the recession in our economy and adjust to external factors. In view of Nigeria’s high import dependency, we needed to cut back on imports by introducing a barrage of fiscal and monetary measures. Of these, the most crucial is the exchange rate adjustment of the naira, the national currency.

    This is the economic and financial situation the CBN has been battling with in the last two years. Its strategy was one of managed exchange rate adjustment, instead of a free floating exchange rate adjustment. But the practical and predictable effect of its strategy was the wide divergence of exchange rates of the official market and the so-called black market, with the latter forcing the official rate down. This divergence in exchange rates has led to policy distortions. Instead of a uniform exchange rate, we have had at least five different exchange rates. These multiple exchange rates, including a different one for religious pilgrimage, indicate a form of subsidy, a negation of the policy and strategy of the removal of all forms of subsidies from the domestic economy. Now, these distortions in exchange rates lead to a loss of investors’ confidence in the economy. It makes planning of any kind virtually impossible and constrains growth in the economy.

    More recently, the increase in oil exports and revenue has allowed the CBN to increase its supply of forex into the economy. It has begun to drop its resistance to the nominal devaluation of the naira, a policy that was doomed to failure in the light of the sharp fall in oil revenues and forex. The naira remained overvalued. One indicator of overvaluation of any currency is the difference between official nominal exchange rates and parallel market rates. Where, as in Nigeria, the parallel market rate is a third higher than the official rate, there is a case of overvaluation involved. As was expected, the divergence in exchange rates between the official inter-bank market and the bureaux de change has narrowed considerably because of the increased supply by the CBN into the economy. It is reported that the CBN’s strategy and target is to get the exchange rate down to N250 to the US dollar. This is commendable and, if sustained, will be a shot in the arm for the economy.

    However, despite the obvious signs of a contraction in the recession, and the narrowing of the divergence in the exchange rates of the official and parallel markets, it is not yet UHURU. The IMF is not always right in its advice and prescriptions to poor countries that are facing a recession. Its blanket advice to cut public spending tends to intensify a recession rather than ease it. It does not take account of the variability in the economic conditions of the countries to which it is offering advice. To get out of a recession, governments need to spend more through internal and external borrowings to stimulate economic activities and create more jobs. However, our fiscal and monetary authorities cannot completely ignore advice from the IMF and the World Bank on how to end the recession and resume growth. In addition to our forex strategy, the economy needs complementary fiscal and monetary measures to bring it out of recession and resume modest growth.

    In its recent review of the economic situation in Nigeria, while commending the CBN for its forex management, the IMF advised the Nigerian authorities to ‘remove the remaining restrictions and multiple currency practices, thus unifying the foreign exchange market’, and this strategy ‘should be supported by tighter monetary policy and fiscal consolidation to anchor inflation expectations”. This is advice that should not be ignored. Inflation is now close to 18 per cent as a result of the sharp increase in money supply. Inflation undermines economic growth and tends to reinforce the divergence in exchange rates between the official and parallel markets. In addition, the injection of forex into the economy should be measured and not done too hurriedly as it has the potential of ‘overshooting’ the stability needed in the exchange rates.

    There is already a slum in the demand for forex, a clear indication that some of the demand was speculative. There is also some evidence of round tripping in the sale and disbursement of forex by the banks. It was reported recently that two directors of the CBN were implicated in the fraudulent round tripping of forex to the BDCs. Too much supply of forex to the banks will reinforce this criminal tendency in the sale of foreign exchange. Besides, there is a lot of stolen money being hurriedly converted into forex to conceal it from prying eyes, particularly the EFCC.

    In addition, it is difficult to predict how long the increase in oil exports and revenue will last. A crisis in oil exports and revenue is always around the corner. The CBN will, in the circumstances, be well advised to keep the sale of forex to its barest minimum so as to avoid getting again into a situation of wider divergence in exchange rates.