Tag: forex

  • Mastering the Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Our Forex Trading App

    Mastering the Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Our Forex Trading App

    In the shifting world of online trading, having a reliable and user-friendly mobile trading app is essential. HFM, a leading online forex and commodities broker, offers a feature-packed mobile app that empowers traders to stay connected to the markets anytime, anywhere.

    In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explore the HFM app’s key features, functionalities, and provide step-by-step instructions to help both beginners and experienced traders navigate the platform with ease.

    Getting Started

    Download and Installation: Start by downloading the HFM app for forex trading from the App Store (for iOS) or Google Play Store (for Android). Once downloaded, follow the on-screen instructions to install the app on your device.

    Account Registration: New users need to register for a HFM trading account. The registration process involves providing essential details, completing identity verification, and agreeing to the terms and conditions.

    Account options include the cent, zero, pro and premium accounts.

    Key Features

    User-Friendly Interface: The HFM app boasts an intuitive and user-friendly interface, making it accessible for traders of all levels. The design ensures a smooth navigation experience, with easy access to essential features.

    Real-time Market Data: Stay ahead of the market with real-time quotes, charts, and market analysis. The app provides comprehensive information on a wide range of financial instruments, empowering traders to make informed decisions.

    Trading Functionality

    Instrument Variety: HFM offers a diverse range of trading instruments, including forex pairs, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies. The app for forex trading allows users to trade and monitor multiple instruments simultaneously. Traders have access to low pips of 0.0 pips and high leverage of 1:2000.

    Order Execution: Execute trades quickly and efficiently with the HFM app’s one-click trading functionality. Users can place market orders, limit orders, and stop orders with ease.

    Risk Management

    Risk Warning and Education: The app includes risk warnings to remind traders of the inherent risks in trading. Additionally, educational materials are available within the app to help users enhance their trading knowledge and skills.

    Account Management: Effectively manage your trading account with features like fund deposits, withdrawals, and transaction history. The app ensures a secure and seamless financial management experience.

    Advanced Tools

    Technical Analysis Tools: Utilize a variety of technical analysis tools, indicators, and charting options to enhance your trading strategies. The HFM app empowers users with the tools needed for in-depth market analysis.

    Customizable Alerts: Stay informed about market movements by setting up customizable price alerts. Receive notifications for specific price levels, helping you never miss an important trading opportunity.

    Security

    Secure Login: Protect your account with secure login methods, such as biometric authentication (fingerprint or face recognition). HFM prioritizes the security of user accounts to ensure a safe trading environment.

    Final Thoughts

    The HFM app stands out as a powerful tool for traders looking to engage in the dynamic world of online trading.

    Its user-friendly interface, real-time market data, diverse trading instruments, and advanced tools make it an ideal choice for both beginners and experienced traders. By following this comprehensive guide, users can confidently navigate the HFM app and make the most of its features to achieve their trading goals.

  • Domestic carriers’ fleet dips over forex crisis

    Domestic carriers’ fleet dips over forex crisis

    The number of aircraft in the fleet of local carriers has dipped over the operators’ inability to access foreign exchange from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through the official window.

    Besides, the soaring exchange rate is forcing them to cough out huge sums to pay for offshore maintenance of their aircraft.

    It was learnt that many local carriers could not raise the funds for aircraft maintenance in South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Europe and the United States.

    Sources hinted that without payment from airlines, the managers of such facilities do not accept to undertake major repairs of aircraft.

    Investigations by The Nation show that many local carriers like Max Air, which a few years ago, operated six Boeing 737 aircraft, has only two aircraft – United Nigeria Airlines – which had six airplanes consisting four Embraer ERJ 145 and two Airbus 320-300 aircraft (wet-leased),  operates two ERJ 145 and the two A320 wet-leased aircraft.

    Checks showed that Aero Contractors airline operates three aircraft – two B737 (Cally Air operated by Aero) and a Dash 8 aircraft and one rotary wing. The airline, about a few years ago, had seven aircraft.

    Arik Air’s fleet has depleted from 14, comprising B737, Bom­bardier CRJ-900, Fokker 50/60, Dash 8, to two, including a B737.

    For Dana Air operates two aircraft – MD 82 and B737.  About two years ago, it had a fleet of six aircraft, con­sisting of MD and Boeing fleet.

    The most hit of the econom­ic crunch and dollar scarcity is Azman Airlines, which for almost a year, has not operated.

    At its peak, the airline had sev­en aircraft, including leased air planes, which were Airbus A320 and A330, while the others were Boeing 737 aircraft, but suffered gradual depletion until it no longer has an airplane to oper­ate with.

    The airline, which commenced scheduled flights 10 years ago, had last August sent its staff on compulsory leave due to its fail­ure to return its aircraft for main­tenance aboard.

    Of the four aircraft, two were taken out to Turkey for C-checks in a maintenance, re­pair and overhaul (MRO) facility recognised by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), while the others remained in an MRO facility in-country.

    While the leased aircraft had been returned to their original owners, the other aircraft owned by the airline were due for main­tenance, but the management could not raise funds to conduct checks on them.

    The airline had attributed the fluctuating Nigerian currency and its crash in recent times to the failure of the airline to raise the funds to bring back the aircraft to operation.

    Also, Green Africa Airways op­erates a fleet of ATR 72/42 aircraft. At its peak, the airline had three aircraft, but at the moment operates two airplanes as the third is on maintenance checks.

    Our correspondent also gath­ered that Overland Airways fleet, comprising seven aircraft of ATR 42/47 and Embraer E175, had de­pleted to five.

    Ibom Air with about six air­craft at its peak of A320 and Bom­bardier CRJ-900), oper­ates about four airplanes – A220 and CRJ-900.

    Also, Value Jet with four air­craft of Bombardier CRJ 100, CRJ-900LR) at its peak, operates three aircraft, while the controversial NG Eagle, which commenced operations last December with three B737, now operates just one wet-leased aircraft.

    Capt. Ado Sanusi, the Chief Executive Officer, Aero Contractors, said the  industry’s capacity had been  declining due to various challenges.

    Sanusi observed that some of the aircraft taken out for checks in the past five months were yet to return because of the exchange rate.

    He regretted that the exchange rate had increased probably by 30 permcent in recent months, while the costs of spare parts had also increased by about 20 per cent within the same period.

    To address the challenges, Sa­nusi proposed the domestication of leasing companies, stable curren­cy and economy.

    He said: “We are facing the greatest economic challenge in my lifetime. The naira is still falling. Inflation is still high and food security is still there and the disposable income is dwindling. It is going really low. The airlines are looking for business and lei­sure travel. Companies need to be prosperous to travel for meetings, but that is being reduced because of the economic activities in the country.

    Read Also: Two foreigners held for ‘forex manipulation’

    “One of the things we should be looking at as an industry is how we can domesticate leasing com­panies. What are the hindrances stopping leasing companies from coming in? How can we give them the leeway to flourish? Whatever it is, we must identify it. We must get the leasing companies to come in.

    “Why are the Nigerian air­lines finding it difficult to do dry lease of aircraft, instead of wet-lease? Wet-lease is supposed to be a stopgap and we can’t develop the aviation industry and human cap­ital and the economy with that. We are just a dumping ground. We are just getting small commissions and giving the rest to the companies that we leased the aircraft from.”

    He, however, assured that the fixed wing of Aero Contractors fleet would increase from three to five before the end of June as another aircraft is expected to join the growing fleet in the com­ing month.

    Chairman, United Nigeria Airlines, Obiora Okonkwo said the volatility of the foreign exchange market and increased expenses of maintaining aircraft has led to the grounding of 30 per cent aircraft in Nigeria in the last two months.

    Okonkwo said about 50 per cent of the aircraft operating in the country may go out of service in the next  few months, if adequate measures were not taken to address the situation.

    Okonkwo lamented that aircraft parts’ prices were on the increase while the number of passengers were diminishing.

    He explained that airline operators depend primarily on the large sales of tickets to fuel the aircraft and pay service providers.

    Okonkwo said: “However, due to the rising costs and exchange rate challenges, aircraft capacity has reduced by about 30 per cent in the past two months. If the situation persists, up to 50 per cent of aircraft may be out of service in the next months.’’

    Also,  Chief Executive Officer, SY&T Communications, Mr. Simon Tumba attributed the major challenges to the forex crisis and the continu­ous rise on importation levy by the CBN.

    According to him,  the sordid situation had made fleet retainer by airlines impossi­ble, while depletion had continued non-stop.

    He lamented that the forex scarcity and the unstable economy had virtually collapsed every business organisation, while the government seemed helpless in addressing the challenges.

    He said: “The forex issue has affected the airlines not only in fleet expansion, but fleet retainership. Most of the airlines can no longer retain their fleets. This is difficult and I am not sure if anyone can maintain his or her current fleets, not to talk of fleet expansion.

    “It is a macro issue and not just a sectorial challenge. Every sector is affected and the only people probably smiling to the banks are the banks them­selves. Whether you are talking about the petroleum and gas sec­tor, manufacturing, agriculture and others, everyone is bleeding. Unfortunately, for agriculture, the security challenge has further compounded it. The government is helpless, the airlines are help­less too.’’

    “The government cannot do much for the aviation sector, even the public sector players are crying because the value of naira is decreasing every day. You can look at the value of the dollar yesterday and see the value again today. It chang­es daily.”

    He explained that at the current airfares, the airlines are subsidizing the airfares for air travellers, stressing that the cur­rent return economy tickets are still less than $150, despite the fact that the sector is about 80 percent dollarised for airlines.

  • Two foreigners held for ‘forex manipulation’

    Two foreigners held for ‘forex manipulation’

    • ‘Saboteurs will not be spared’

    Two Binance executives — an American and a British- Pakistani — have been detained on the orders of National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu over alleged involvement in foreign exchange manipulations.

    Their names were not made available.

    It was learnt last night that the Federal Government obtained a Court Warrant to detain the men for 12 days, pending further investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

    They were taken into custody at a Guest House operated by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA).

    The duo allegedly flew into Nigeria yesterday following the Federal Government crackdown on Cryptocurrency exchange. The government plans to ban Cryptocurrency trading owing to alleged sharp practices through their websites.

    Speaking on Tuesday after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, claimed that billions of dollars had passed through the channel from unidentified sources.

    The CBN boss said: “In the case of Binance, in the last one year alone, $26 billion passed through Binance Nigeria from sources and users who we cannot adequately identify.

    “We are concerned that certain practices go on that indicate illicit flows going through a number of these entities and suspicious flows, at best.”

    The NSA has asked Binance to provide the data on its operations in Nigeria in the past seven years.

    The arrested executives declined a request to delete all Nigerian information from their platform, insisting that they would not do so until they are taken to their (countries’) embassies.

    Also yesterday, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, clarified reasons for the clampdown on Binance and other cryptocurrency trading websites.

    He declared that failure to stop Binance will lead to the destruction of the economy.

    He said: “If we don’t clamp down on Binance, it will destroy the economy of this country. They just fix the rate,” he stated.

    Read Also: CBN okays $15.7m forex sale to 785 BDCs

    “We have saboteurs. Look at what Binance is doing to our economy. That is why the government moved against it. Some people sit down using cyberspace to dictate even our exchange rate, hijacking the role of the CBN.

    “They just sit down and fix anything they like. We are trying to prevent that from happening henceforth.”

    He urged Nigerians to quit patronising the black market for foreign exchange rates, stating that the official website of the Central Bank is the only authorised source.

    Arguing that the parallel market is not the real gauge of Nigeria’s economic health but an illegal market, Onanuga said: “I don’t even know why Nigerians and the media are feeding on the parallel market. That is not where we should go; what’s the CBN rate? As at Friday, the rate for the dollar was about N1, 600.”

    “Even in the so-called parallel market, the exchange rate is stabilising there and that is what this needs.”

    On the dollarization of the economy, he said:  “Importers are looking at the exchange rate and using it to fix prices, some of them arbitrarily, some of them actually profiteering.”

    The presidential aide assured that the prices of goods in the nation would return to normal as soon as the top financial regulator stabilises the exchange rate.

     “Things are not going to get worse, they are going to get better in the next few weeks,” he added.

  • ‘Peg Customs’ forex rate at lower rate’

    ‘Peg Customs’ forex rate at lower rate’

    Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, has commended the decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to approve the use of the exchange rate reflected on the import documentation (Form M) at the onset of import transaction.

    He described the move as a laudable response to the grievances of investors, saying it would reduce the uncertainty around imports and related transactions.

    He however observed that the CBN intervention did not address the bigger and more troubling issue of the prohibitive cost of cargo clearance at the ports which had risen by over 40 per cent in the last two months. 

    “The high exchange rate for import duty assessment is fueling the already high inflation, increasing production and operating costs for manufacturers and other businesses, worsening the cost-of-living crisis and putting thousands of maritime sector jobs at risk.There is also the added risk of cargo diversion to neighbouring countries and heightened smuggling which could jeopardise the realisation of customs revenue target,” Yusuf stated.

    He urged the apex bank to peg the customs duty exchange rate at N1,000 per dollar for the rest of the year in line with the Federal Government’s commitment to its advocacy of ease of doing business and to relief the current hardships on the citizens and the burden on businesses.

    Read Also: Dangote, Soludo, Abiodun, Elumelu, Rewane in Tinubu’s Economic Advisory Team

    “The customs duty exchange rate of N1,488.9/$ is still too high in the context of the galloping inflation and difficulties facing businesses and the citizens. Instances of abandoned cargo is on the increase as a consequence of escalating trade cost.These are not good outcomes for an economy seeking to ensure recovery, drive growth, promote inclusion and guarantee social stability.

    “Businesses are grappling with multiple macroeconomic and structural headwinds which are negatively impacting profitability, competitiveness, job creation, retention of existing jobs and business sustainability,” Yusuf further said.

    He argued that pegging the customs duty exchange rate resonates with the intervention measures to mitigate the hardships in the country, adding that this proposition does not detract from the economic reform agenda of the administration. “If anything, it would complement the economic transformation measures because of the expected positive impact on competitiveness, productivity, cost reduction, deceleration of inflation and employment generation,” Yusuf added.               

  • ‘Incentivise local production to end perennial forex crises’

    ‘Incentivise local production to end perennial forex crises’

    Managing Director, Cadbury Nigeria Plc, Oyeyimika Adeboye, supervises the West African operations of Mondelēz International, one of world’s largest snack companies. In this interview with Deputy Group Business Editor, Taofik Salako, Adeboye provides incisive insights on the Nigerian operating environment, regional integration and other issues

    Why did you choose debt conversion instead of options like rights issue that affords all shareholders equal opportunity?

    We were not looking for money, we were looking to pay a debt. A rights issue meant we were going to get naira from Nigerian shareholders, which was not what we were looking for. What we were looking for was to liquidate an existing debt that was created by the system in Nigeria. How did we get into the situation of this debt? The debt came by because we had a Letter of Credit (LC) that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) failed to honour. When we want to import, let’s say we want to import spare parts for our equipment, we raise an LC, which the CBN is supposed to honour, the supplier brings in the spare parts, and we pay the supplier through the CBN.That’s the normal process. With that process, there is no need to go into any foreign debt or anything. We had the naira, but these LCs kept accumulating from the transactions. The CBN kept telling us, they will honour it, they will honour it, year upon year. We were talking of transactions dating back to 2021 and the CBN has had no enough dollars to pay those banks, and those banks are coming to us to pay up. So, it was a matter of we needed to pay dollars, not that we needed to pay naira. My holding company came in essentially to bail us out, when they saw the situation we were in with the expectation that we would be able to pay back. But then it has taken many years, up to four years, and the CBN was not forthcoming. Our holding company then said it looked like your central bank was struggling; then the CBN also came out to say that there were no reserves. So, it was a case of how do we pay back our holding company. We started buying dollars from the market through our local banks and even then, they were struggling to get us enough dollars. With the delay and scarcity of dollars, we were running huge costs. At the beginning of the transaction, the exchange rate was roughly around N370 per dollar. We had the naira then at that rate to pay, but with the scarcity and delay, by the time we were paying our holding company, the naira had depreciated to N1, 000 to a dollar. So, whatever naira we had then had already depreciated and we were then looking for more naira to pay them. That was at the point that our holding company suggested the option of converting the debt to equity. So, the conversation around rights issue was not even an option when it comes to something like this.

    …. So, that conversion was in favour of local shareholders too?

    Absolutely, like I explained to shareholders when we met at the extraordinary general meeting, if we had not done that conversion in December 2023 when the exchange rate was about N1, 000 and we had done it in February when we met, the exchange rate would have been N1, 400, the amount would have been bigger, our liabilities would have been bigger and the interest we would have been paying while we were waiting for all these approvals, would have been bigger. It would have been worse for the shareholders, because if we did not do this debt conversion, we won’t be able to pay any dividend until we pay down the debt, because we would have had a massive debt with accruing interest that we need to service. You’ve seen what devaluation is causing to our profit and loss accounts. We made good operating profit but it was absorbed by financial costs, essentially exchange rate difference.

    What’s your view on the changes in the forex market from multiple rates to market-driven rate?

    My assessment is that so long as the forex is available, it works. If there is still scarcity of forex and demand is bigger than supply, then, all we are doing is chasing further devaluation. Unfortunately, CBN does not have the dollars to intervene, the only people that have the dollars are in the market, and where there is no form of proper intervention, it’s a free market and the price will go anywhere. If there is no enough supply to meet the demand, the rate will keep going up, it’s simple economics.

    How do we ensure dollar liquidity?

    I can tell you some things from the manufacturing side.The government needs to encourage non-oil exports, it needs to incentivise people that can produce and export. Also, the government needs to incentivise those who are producing locally to feed local. We import almost everything in Nigeria because some other countries had invested and we don’t want to invest. But we need to wake up to the hard truth of reality and encourage local manufacturing. Let me give you a simple example: packaging materials. A lot of packaging materials are imported. We have their components here but the infrastructure to make them isn’t here. What stops our government from encouraging the people to put the infrastructure in place here, so that they can make them here? There are lot of ingredients that we are importing. When I look at those ingredients, the basics are here in Nigeria, but the incentive to do them is not here. If government puts in place what I called measures to encourage local production; that will help a lot. Unfortunately, today, government sees local producers mainly for revenue generation, we are being taxed left, right and centre, and as you do that, you are like killing the hand that feeds you, because we are the real sector and what we need is the encouragement in a manner to benefit the economy. We employ a lot of people, we use ingredients locally, we use suppliers locally, encourage all the value chains to work locally. That’s going to bring enormous change. Look at it this way, we have operations across the world and I always ask my colleagues in other countries why are ingredients cheaper in their countries. India makes Bournvita. Bournvita in India is cheaper than Bournvita in Nigeria. You know why? Very simple, India has its own sugar, they grow sugar, they mill sugar, they refine sugar, they don’t import sugar. India has its own flour, they don’t import any wheat, they have wheat grown locally, milled locally; the government encourages it. Packaging materials, they have them locally. So, they aren’t spending dollars or anything. Everything is done in Indian Rupees in India. By the time they finished making everything, it’s cheap, so they can afford to export and make money from export. But in Nigeria, our sugar is imported, we are paying dollars for sugar. Yes, there are three sugar suppliers approved by the CBN in Nigeria – BUA, Dangote and Golden Penny; they are not growing sugar and making it in Nigeria, they bring in milled sugar and refine it in Nigeria. It’s imported. Flour is imported in Nigeria. Skimmed milk powder, dairy, is imported, we don’t have dairy in Nigeria, whatever we have is not enough, in India, they have milk, their government encourages dairy locally. That’s the true essence of backward integration, using your resources internally to feed internally. All those things help. So, the government needs to look at ways to incentivise local manufacturing. Yes, you can tax them, but then encourage them first. You can give them moratorium. We used to have pioneer status but now it has disappeared because people don’t see the benefit in it. People are doing things that truly can benefit Nigeria but because Nigeria is not rewarding that, the incentive to do it is not there.

    Talking about incentives, can you please elaborate more on these in practical terms?

    There are many ways to incentivise people. Let me use farmers and dairy farming as examples. You can have facilities given to them that are subsidised so they can invest in mechanised farming, they can grow their farms, because they don’t have the capital on their own to do that. A lot of our farming in Nigeria is manual, and we have good arable land. When I was growing up, we had mountains of groundnuts, cocoa and so on, all those things have disappeared. We think government needs to go back and do that, for local manufacturers.Then, for exports, we used to have Export Expansion Grant (EEG), years back when I joined this business, it was something that the government encouraged for genuine exporters with proofs of exports. For instance, at Cadbury Nigeria, we were processing cocoa beans, getting cocoa butter out; which we don’t use in Nigeria, it’s exported, it’s a globally traded commodity, people are demanding for it; back then, government was encouraging us with scaled incentives, such that when you export a certain quantity, you get certain incentives; that’s no longer there. Even as at now, 2024, we are still struggling to get claims for incentives that we had done some years ago. So, it doesn’t incentivise anyone to want to do such because the process is ridiculous and the more painful thing is that when you finally get it back, you can only use the document for duty, you can’t use it for tax, you can’t set it off against anything beyond duty. This makes the whole thing counterproductive. Let me give you an example: if you are in a business where you have duty certificate of about N7 million and your import duty is only N1 million, that means you get N6 million sitting around that you can’t use for anything, then it’s not worth it. So, the government needs to put a structure in place to promote exports, and there are people who can advise the government on this. We need a structure that incentivises exports, incentivises local manufacturing, incentivises farming in Nigeria, to put in place a structure that is manageable. And this is not about fertiliser alone, because that’s the common noise out there, we need mechanised farming. To feed 200 million people is not easy and for a man to take a hoe and be digging, that cannot feed 200 million people.

    With mechanised farming, we will feed our population and export the rest, and we will get the dollars we are looking for. I asked our cocoa people to get some information about cocoa in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, two of the biggest cocoa exporters in the world and was wondering why Nigerian was not there in the top chart. What I found out, I was disheartened. We exported cocoa to Ghana, some of the seedlings that Ghana used to grow, came from Nigeria, but Ghana organised itself, focused on what it needed to do, established a cocoa board and put a structure in place to manage their exports. In Nigeria, we don’t have that. Many years ago, we had a cocoa board that was working and we were able to manage things better, but that board has literally disappeared and has no power. The people that are importing cocoa globally want structure, they want quality, they want to know who they are paying to; that’s what Ghana has done, that’s what Cote d’Ivoire has done, same for Brazil, all the countries that are the biggest cocoa exporters have structures; Nigeria can get in there because we have the land, but we are not focused on the structure. For us at Mondelēz for instance, last year we brought our Cocoa Life project to Nigeria to support farmers, to teach them how to grow, how to treat, how to preserve, how to dry, all the things they do in cocoa farming, we taught them. But you see, that’s like a drop in the ocean, because you can have the best cocoa in the world, if you don’t have people coming to buy their cocoa in the right way, the government will not be benefiting from it. Today, most of the cocoa money that is coming is not going to the government, it’s going to buying agents and middlemen that are working with farmers. In Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, there are no middlemen, you sell your cocoa to the government, who exports the cocoa to all the buyers, that way the revenue is in the hand of the government. Government pays the farmers, in fact, the farmers are well looked after. About five years ago when cocoa price dropped significantly, the big cocoa countries – Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, – came and demanded that they should be given an amount to be added to the cost of cocoa, so that their farmers could get a bit more, they got an extra pay beyond the price of cocoa then. Those governments could do that because they took charge of the processes.

    But we’ve been having many subsidised interventions in trillions of naira without much to show for it, how do we ensure that these interventions actually get to the intended beneficiaries?

    Simply, put in place a structure that has integrity, that is accountable, that’s what other countries had done. Then, we need to get ourselves to a place as a nation where people that are found to have done what they are not supposed to do or didn’t do what they ought to do are punished, I call that consequence management. Part of our problems in Nigeria is that we have all a lot of resources but they are wasted from all fronts; money disappearing into the pockets of people. We need strong consequence management. Corruption is all over the world, it’s not unique to Nigeria, we don’t have the bragging right to corruption, everywhere; whether it is America, Europe, England, anywhere in the world there is corruption. Where other countries have an advantage over us is that they have a process to make sure that you are brought to book, if you are caught stealing public money, you are brought to book, we don’t have that here, we have what I call a pretense but not a reality. When people start being properly penalised for doing the wrong thing, things will improve. Even if we have some structures in place as you said, but there is no accountability, put accountability in place, bring to book those that are not able to account for what they have been given and be serious about it. When you start making scapegoats of two to three persons, and people see that the government is serious, we will make progress. We have huge potential as a nation, we are blessed with huge resources; I keep going back to this arable land thing because you know we have countries in our region who are living in the desert, yet they are making money, so how much more we?

    What happened to your cocoa subsidiary?

    We still have the cocoa factory in Ondo, we just removed it from being subsidiary for convenience to be part of us. So, it is still processing cocoa beans, some we export, some we use internally, it’s still there, there is backward integration for us. The reality is that the export business benefits from our factory in Ondo, we buy cocoa beans from local farmers, we process these, and we are supporting local farmers who are on Cocoa Life Scheme as well.

    So, in terms of local content, what percentage of your operations is local?

    We don’t operate like that, I won’t give you a percentage that’s locally sourced. For example, all our people are local, and in terms of our input, cocoa bean is local; how do you define sugar that you buy in Nigeria but it’s imported, it’s local; skimmed milk powder, it’s local, we buy soya, we buy sorghum, all these things are local. But, are they really local? Because when you asked me about local input, I can tell you that the things I’m buying in naira are all local, my packaging materials are all local, but they are not made in Nigeria, I’m buying them from Nigerian suppliers, who bring them in. In the strict sense of what you are looking for, we’ve never calculated it because it will be difficult to do so until we get to a situation where some of those ingredients are being made locally. I won’t call the packaging material local, even though I’m buying it from the local supplier and paying in naira when I know for sure the component is not made in Nigeria.

    We’ve seen a whiff of some companies that had been in Nigeria for decades exiting the country in recent period, is there any discussion about Cadbury Nigeria leaving Nigeria?

    There is no any discussion about leaving Nigeria. If we had wanted to leave Nigeria, we won’t have done the debt-to-equity conversion, we would have had the debt and our holding company would have insisted in us paying the whole debt because if they were interested in leaving Nigeria, why would they want to hold more shares? At this point in time, there’s nothing like leaving Nigeria. We’ve been here for over 60 years, we are proud to be in Nigeria, we believe Nigeria is a good source for us, there are 200 million people, we are a snacking company, we have the consumers here, why would you want to run away? 

    If you were special adviser to the government, what are those things that you think will jumpstart the local manufacturing industry?

    I could give you a long list, but let me start with power, which is a massive requirement. For us, for example, we are working with an independent power provider at the back who has a gas line and the facility to provide power for us. Power is so important. Our factory operates 24/7, when there is power failure it costs us money, so getting reliable power is very important. Reliable, affordable, sustainable power; I know that’s asking for a lot of thing, but it’s very important.

    Read Also:Forex: Nigerian Breweries posts N106b loss

    Then, the right infrastructure. We have a factory in Ikeja, to move products from Ikeja to my customers in Kano, the trucks take them, it takes the trucks one to two weeks; the trucks break down on the road because the roads are bad, we should explore train haulage, we should make the roads better. Then, security, some of the drivers do hire police with them because of insecurity. How does an operator operate in Nigeria when there is such level of insecurity? Security is very important. I can go on and on, I had already talked about local incentives for manufacturers; put incentives in place that will enable us to get ingredients locally, we can’t make everything ourselves. In Cadbury Nigeria we have several input, some of these input can be made in Nigeria if manufacturers in Nigeria are incentivised to do so.

    Then, put incentives in place for schools. In our recruitment process, we go round to talk to students and we found out many students don’t want to come and work in a factory because they don’t see it as attractive. Our education system has been structured in such a way not to encourage students to come into manufacturing, it’s only those who are desperate that want to come here. They see sports and entertainment as big money, quick easy money. Then you go to medicine, but even now, our student doctors are leaving the country. And as manufacturers, we need all those scientists. In the back here, we need food technology scientists, we need engineers and we have so much need here. But the way we are growing our talents is somehow. As a manufacturer, the biggest thing is to have the right talent pipeline for the future, we don’t. The government needs to spend money in motivating education. When I look at the budget for education, it’s not small, but when I look at what we are getting out of education, I wonder how the money was spent. So, education is also very important for the future of manufacturing in Nigeria. Otherwise, what will happen is that people will bring their factory, bring their engineers, that’s what some companies do. China is investing in its talents and exporting its talents, we should invest in our talents too and use our talents here in Nigeria.

    How do we improve the operating environment, from the legislative point of view?

    Things like multiple taxes, they need to look at how these things are done. We pay corporate tax, withholding tax, education tax, we have all sorts of levies. We don’t have a problem, for example, paying education tax if we see where the funds are going, but we don’t see it. Is it spent on education, who is accounting for it? We have a Police Trust Fund, why are we paying police fund when we still need to put security on our vehicles going out, people don’t feel safe, our customers don’t feel safe, we’ve had a few of our distributors kidnapped, yet we are paying police fund for security. There are couple of multiple taxes out there that need to be checked. Then, you want to encourage manufacturing, at some point you need to look at how to tax. I’m in favour of indirect taxes, because indirect taxes mean everybody pays, direct taxes mean that only those you can catch will pay. It means companies like ourselves pay a lot of taxes, but the informal sector, are they paying taxes? Does the government have the statistics of the informal sector, I don’t think so. And then, some environmentally geared legislations to support the people who are doing the right things for the environment will be good as well. I know that Nigeria is now beginning to catch up on the recycling conversation, we need to do more of that.           

    Is merger and acquisition part of your growth strategy?

    Yes, at Mondelēz globally, mergers and acquisitions is big for us and where the opportunity arises we will do so. We’ve explored some in the past in the last four years, we discussed some acquisitions, they didn’t work out right because the portfolio didn’t match what we want. As a going concern and in terms of our growth, acquisition is one of the things on our agenda absolutely. If we see companies that fit into our strategy, we will definitely talk to them.

    Talking about regional integration and trades, how do you find these?

    We have an operation in Ghana and ECOWAS works for us, we export TomTom to Ghana, we import Hot Chocolate from Ghana, generally it works. There is a banking process (Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) that hasn’t worked, we hope that as the (new) CBN Governor settles to work, they can bring that back to life, which affords us the need not to pay dollars. If we are in ECOWAS, we should not be paying dollars to Ghana and Ghana should not be paying dollars to us, there’s a way we can trade with ourselves without involving dollars. The previous CBN team had started the process but that process is yet to come to fruition. It needs to work because until that works, we are still stuck with this dollar issue, which we should get ourselves out of, at least for ECOWAS. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), that’s yet to kick off, we are expectant, and we are ready as a business. Currently we import Clorets from Egypt. Like I said, we export some things to other countries across West Africa; we have a business operation in South Africa, there is chocolates coming from South Africa that we could bring to Nigeria, there is Bournvita from Nigeria that we can take to South Africa; but right now because there is no free trade zone, it’s expensive. There is demand for products from Nigeria but with the duty rate now, at 40 per cent, it’s not worth it, it’s too expensive. So, we need to get those things working for us to operate on a bigger scale, we will benefit. The same way as you look at Europe and European Union (EU), when they put a system in place and the entire group benefits, as a continent we need to do same for Africa.  

    Besides, then you have issues of Visas and all that. Other global free trade zones like Europe are successful because of less restrictions and people are able to trade across. But here, if I want to go and do business in Ghana, even though it’s ECOWAS, the requirements are cumbersome. We should make it easier. We should put a process in place to facilitate this. A classic example, we were at NAFDAC the other day and talking about approvals of some products. While Ghana accepted that NAFDAC approvals are enough for Nigerian made products for the Ghanaian market, NAFDAC was opposite, with a long list, like visiting the factory, carrying out inspection and all those things that make you wonder why does Ghana have a FDA; we have FDA in Ghana, we have NAFDAC in Nigeria, there should be some collaboration between entities like that.

    Where do you see the company over the medium-to-long term?

    I see growth. As I said, we are a snacking company, the population of Nigeria is growing and we hope that every other home in Nigeria will have our product in one way or the other, whether it’s a snack, beverage, biscuits, chocolates; we are a global company, we have global brands and some of these global brands we are beginning to bring to Nigeria. We are hoping that more people can afford our products and that more people will buy our products. In terms of focus, we have four main pillars: growth, execution, sustainability is very big for us and you’ll see that I talked about Cocoa Life and what we are doing around cocoa life, recyclable packaging material is also big for us; culture, we just won Top Employer Award, our investment in people is around our culture, what are the things we need to do to ensure we have the right brains, the right talents in our business as we continue to grow our business. For us, those four strategic pillars define us, how we see ourselves moving forward in Nigeria and it’s same thing in almost every country that we operate in, those are the key things that we use to lay the foundation of our growth in any country we are operating.

    Any plan to expand your product portfolio?

    Yes, we will continue to grow our product portfolio, we’ll look for what’s relevant to our market. In the last three years, we brought some new candies-coffee candies, caramel candies; Clorets is about five years old, fresh lime is also about three years old, we bring things in based on consumer demand, sometimes when we see what consumers want, we bring it, we are a very consumer-centric business, we shape our portfolio to what we believe are the things being demanded by the consumers.

    What does it mean to be categorised as top employer?

    One thing for us as a business is that we know that for the business to operate the people matter. Our people are our biggest assets, we can have all the money in the world, all the machinery, if we don’t have the right people, the people are not happy, we can’t keep them, we can’t retain them, then you know we have a problem. So, our focus has always been to make sure that in the area within your control, make sure people are happy and are well looked after. That’s what has helped us. Continuous focus, we have a good people team that know the importance of people to the business is critical.

    In terms of technology transfer, how much of your technological operations are domiciled in the domestic workforce?

    Our people are well-trained, we have a training tool from Mondelēz International University where people are learning online through a platform called Workday, there is a lot of training for our people through that platform. Then, there is hand-on, on-the-job training that we implement. When you say technology transfer, let me give you an example, our Bournvita factory in the back here, the technology there was introduced in 2016, we had engineers coming to support our team, it’s been a journey but our team are now handling the equipment themselves. Of course, when it comes to big maintenance and overhaul, we have to bring in equipment owners to come and loot at it themselves. There’s quite element of transfer that we have here. There are some things that we share with our global company because it makes sense in terms of cost, we call these shared services and there are some things that we do directly ourselves here.

    What’s the future of the company from investors’ perspective?

    We are not allowed to make forward-looking statements because we are a publicly traded company, any statement I make can be deemed to be a forecast and it’s not fair in the market, so we don’t make forward-looking statements. What I can say is that we’ve been here thus far, we are investing in Nigeria, and we will continue to invest in Nigeria because we believe in Nigeria.

    In the area of corporate social responsibility, what has been the impact of company in the communities?

    Today, I’m wearing this Bournvita shirt because we just gave awards to three schools in Nigeria, which won in a talent competition, it’s a pan-Nigeria competition with transparent conditions and any school is allowed to enter. The first three winning schools receive many awards; first, we throw a Christmas party for their children; second, the children get to choose the charity of their choice where they want us to invest in on their behalf and third, the school wins an amount of money that they can plough back into the school – they want to buy computers, they want to fix their labs and whatever they may want to do. That’s part of our social responsibility. We have what we call social mission through our brands, where we use our brands to support our communities. We have TomTom Breathe for it. Today in Nigeria, music and art is a big deal, Nollywood and all of that. Breathe for It Academy is basically something we created to sponsor people who want to invest in the arts. We have people who will teach them how to do the agreements, how to set up contracts, how to set up a studio, what you need to do to get an agent or a manager, all of the things an artist needs, those are investments we make. In our immediate community of Agidingbi (Ikeja), we have pipe borne water for the community which they can use in their homes everyday. We do quite a lot for our communities.

  • Forex crisis: Ex-lawmaker mulls legislation against local transaction in dollar

    Forex crisis: Ex-lawmaker mulls legislation against local transaction in dollar

    As naira extends losses at forex markets, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Bamidele Faparusi has called on the federal government to introduce a legislation that would criminalise local transactions in dollars or any other foreign currencies other than Naira.

    Speaking in an exclusive interview with The Nation in Lagos, at the weekend, the former lawmaker traced the appetite for dollar demands to politicians who are corruptly enriching themselves in government.

    The naira fell to a new all-time-low of N1,590/$ on the official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market during the week, the worst official exchange rate since the Central Bank of Nigeria floated the national currency in June 2023.

    Faparusi said to save Naira from the continuous downward trend, the Central Bank of Nigeria, as a matter of urgency, needed to also seek legislation that would prohibit commercial banks from paying out dollars on the counter.

    He argued that this development would lead to a sharp rebound of the national currency in the official market and reduce the activities of Bureau De Change operators in Nigeria.

    Read Also: Forex crisis: Travel allowances by cash now prohibited – CBN

    He also urged the CBN and the security agencies to beam their searchlights on politicians and government officials who are hoarding dollars in their homes.

    While lauding the recent decision of President Tinubu to instruct the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to take control of crude oil sales proceeds from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), he said the implementation of the new policy regime on oil receipts would be a game changer of some sorts.

    “If there is government policy through the CBN, that allows dollar deposits and prohibits paying in dollars, the government officials that want to get bribes or kickbacks will get it in Naira, and it would be easier to trace corrupt practices among them.

    “One of the reasons corrupt politicians crave for dollars is because they don’t want to be traced. So, they will collect their bribes and kickbacks in dollar cash, and that’s where Bureau De Change operators make their money,” he stressed.

  • Govs plan measures to address hardship, insecurity, boost forex

    Govs plan measures to address hardship, insecurity, boost forex

    Governors have resolved to implement measures to cushion the effect of the current economic hardship on the citizens and raise foreign exchange earnings.

    The governors came up with the resolution at an emergency virtual meeting of the Nigeria Governor’s Forum (NGF) held on February 6.

    In a communique after the meeting by the Chairman of the NGF and Governor of Kwara State, 

    AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, the Governors also considered ways to address rising insecurity.

    Part of the communique reads: “Following a briefing by National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and the representative of the Director General of the Department of State Service (DSS), members deliberated on the security situation and food stability in the country and resolved as follows:

    Read Also: Kwara Gov appeals for patience on food, forex crisis

    “Recognised the need to address the connection between food inflation, naira depreciation and rising insecurity across parts of the country from a systemic perspective and called for urgent discussions with and synergy amongst stakeholders in improving the situation in the shortest possible time.”

    The Governors agreed to reduce foreign exchange demand by use of moral suasion to reduce

    dependence on foreign exchange, imported goods and services.

    They also agreed to work on ways to improve foreign exchange supply by easing commodity export requirements to encourage export and supply of foreign exchange, curbing illegal export of solid minerals and increasing crude oil

    production to earn more foreign exchange.

    The Governors resolved to support improved enforcement efforts by reviewing the extant criminal

    justice laws in the states to ensure quick dispensation of justice on perpetrators of insecurity in the States.

    They resolved to work with the office of the National Security Adviser in States to enhance the nature and quality of intelligence.

  • Reps to investigate bank’s non-compliance with CBN directives on Forex

    Reps to investigate bank’s non-compliance with CBN directives on Forex

    The House of Representatives is to investigate the non-compliance by banks and financial institutions in the country with directives from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the Net Open Position Limits for foreign exchange.

    This followed a motion of urgent public importance sponsored by Babajimi Johnson (APC, Lagos).

    Benson said that Section 8 (4) and (5) of the CBN Act require that the CBN Governor is expected to brief the relevant Committees of the National Assembly during the semi-annual hearings as well as provide periodic reports on the performance of the economy to the National Assembly.

    He expressed concern about the steady rise in the rate of the dollar in comparison to the naira with the dollar climaxing at about N1,520 in the last week.

    He said this astronomical rise has been caused by diverse market forces and certain economic policies adopted by the government, including the liberalisation of the dollar.

    The lawmaker said commercial banks and certain financial institutions in Nigeria usually hold back a large part of the forex they obtain either through purchase, borrowing, or allocation from the CBN rather than lending to their customers to sell it when the exchange rate is high.

    Worried that this speculative activity by commercial banks and certain financial institutions has further exacerbated the harsh economic situation in the country and led to difficulty for legitimate businesses to obtain forex for their business transactions;

    According to him, the CBN has intervened by introducing new monetary policies to check the rise in the rate of the dollar among which are the Net Open Position Limits and holding excess long foreign exchange.

    Read Also: Forex reforms attracting FDIs, says Cardoso

    He said further that commercial banks and certain financial institutions are reluctant to implement the monetary measures put in place by the apex bank to check this unwholesome practices by banks and other financial institutions in the country;

    He stressed that unless drastic legislative measures are taken to enforce the implementation of these directives, the country will continue to experience dire economic hardship as a result of continuous rise in foreign exchange rates.

    He said the effect of the fluctuation of the dollar rate especially in the last two months has been harsh on the Nigerian economy, leading to difficulty in accessing needed foreign exchange by legitimate businesses and other users. It has also led to a rising cost of living and hardship for millions of Nigerians.

    He maintained that while the liberalization of the dollar i.e leaving the rate for market forces to determine, is, in itself, not a bad policy, sharp practices by many banks and financial institutions have continued to worsen the forex liquidity problem being experienced in the country and has led to massive distortion in the FX market especially as it concerns the rates.

    He said the most common of these practices is “speculation” – a situation where banks retain much more foreign exchange than they actually should, thereby creating unnecessary scarcity and leading to a spike in the rate.

    He alleged that records show that GTB, Zenith Bank, UBA, and First Bank have a cumulative excess holding of over five billion dollars as of January 2024, with Stanbic IBTC being the only fully compliant bank and has made all FX in its reserve available to their clients.

    He said: “It is important to note that these banks often obtain the foreign exchange either through purchase, borrowing, or allocation from CBN at the official rate of N461.5 to a dollar for their various customers but will hoard them as part of their bank balances or reserves. They eventually sell at higher rates to make extra profit.

    “It is this speculative practice that has prompted the CBN to issue a fresh directive centered around the Net Open Position (NOP) for all commercial banks.

    “Simply put, the NOP measures the difference between a bank’s foreign currency assets (what it owns) and foreign currency liabilities (what it owes). Investigations have shown that banks hold far more forex than they require thereby creating artificial scarcity and an increase in the exchange rate.

    “The new CBN directive will help to limit how much foreign exchange banks can hold and for how long. The aim is to discourage hoarding of forex thereby making it available for intended users at reasonable rates.

    “Despite measures adopted by CBN in the past and based on previous experiences with CBN policies directives, many banks are in default of its implementation.

    “This explains why eight banks currently hold a huge NOP of over $6bn while there is a biting scarcity. This motion will provide the legislative impetus for the required action to compel them to fully comply with the directive.

    “This motion is therefore aimed at exercising the constitutional powers of this House to compel compliance by banks with the CBN directives. This will help to stabilize the naira–dollar rate and make it available to clients who require them for their legitimate businesses”.

  • PwC: Inflation, forex, others may impact manufacturing this year

    PwC: Inflation, forex, others may impact manufacturing this year

    Rising inflation, lower consumer purchasing power, global supply-chain bottlenecks, and forex shortages may continue to impact manufactured output in 2024.

    Professional services firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC Nigeria) made this projection in its latest Nigeria Economic Outlook, which highlights the seven key trends that will shape the nation’s economic trajectory in 2024.

    PwC, in the report, said, for instance, that headline inflation rose steadily from January to December 2023 reaching an 18-year peak of 28.92 per cent in December, from 28.2 per cent in November 2023.

    The report stated that the rise in inflation was fueled by food (33.9 per cent) and transportation inflation (26.7 per cent).

    “The aggregate drivers of inflation in Nigeria include naira devaluation, increased food prices, high import bill, rising energy and logistic costs,” PwC said.

    It also predicted that consumer spending may remain pressured in 2024, decreasing non- essential spending.

    “Consumer spending may be pressured in 2024 due to rising prices of goods and services (increasing food and transportation costs), coupled with lower disposable income. However, private consumption is expected to be marginally better than 2023,” PwC said.

    According to the report, which was made available to The Nation, continued rise in food prices may further squeeze purchasing power in 2024 if fiscal reforms remain slow.

    PwC said despite the low unemployment rate in the country, low consumer spending and purchasing power remains an issue, especially in the absence of commensurate increase in minimum wage to mitigate the inflationary growth in the economy.

    It, however, stated that the government’s conditional cash transfers and projected slight decrease in inflation might offer temporary relief in 2024.

    PwC also said global supply-chain bottlenecks may impact manufacturing output this year. According to it, geopolitical, economic, environmental, political and trade trends will shape the dynamics and outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2024.

    It noted, for instance, that if the on-going Russia-Ukraine war intensifies, it could lead to increased global energy and commodity supply risks.

    “Nigeria may experience increased inflation and food security challenges due to grain import disruptions and high petroleum product cost,’’ the report said.

    It also said Nigeria may face the continued risk of dampened investor sentiment despite the reduction in global benchmark interest rate due to FX liquidity challenges and high inflation rate.

    Nigeria, PwC also stated, may be impacted by a disruption in global supply in the event of a conflict that could impede the flow of goods through the critical Taiwan strait route, which is vital for half of the world’s shipping traffic.

    Besides, the outcome of elections in several countries globally, especially USA, UK, and Taiwan may shape the dynamics of trade and capital flows around the world in 2024.

    On the issue of forex, PwC predicted that despite various efforts aimed at stabilising the FX market, the illiquidity challenges may continue to limit investors’ ability to repatriate capital.

    According to the professional services firm, FX illiquidity challenges persist due to limited foreign exchange inflows to the country.

    It listed other challenges to include lower proceeds from crude oil inflows due to decline in oil production.

    Read Also: Forex reforms attracting FDIs, says Cardoso

    “The average oil production from January to November 2023 stood at 1.25 mbpd, falling short of both the budgeted 1.69 mbpd and the Organsation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production quota of 1.78 mbpd.

     “Another challenge is the reduced FDI flows; capital importation declined by 43.6% to $654.65 million in Q3 2023 from $1,159.67 million in Q3 2022 due to several factors such as difficulty in funds repatriation abroad, insecurity, infrastructural deficit, etc,” PwC said.

    To address these issues, PwC said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) implemented various strategies aimed at attracting foreign exchange inflows.

    The strategies include the continuous clearance of FX backlogs, liberalising the FX market, and removing restrictions on 43 banned items from accessing FX, among other reforms.

    However, uncertainty in the FX environment may persist in 2024 if supply challenges are not met,’ PwC predicted.

    It, however, said: “Key short and medium term policy initiatives may result in an improved FX market. The key drivers of stable FX market include better price discovery, liquidity, and reduced friction in access.”

    The report concluded that manufacturing exports may remain low as the country’s export complexity is significantly skewed and concentrated on raw materials and commodities.

    It, however, said successful implementation of fiscal reforms could have a positive impact on the sector.

    “Opportunities abound to boost manufacturing exports with the $3.4 trillion African Continental Free trade Area (AfCFTA) market potential, if economic and structural challenges are addressed by the government,” it added.

  • Insecurity, Forex: Tinubu’ll have to go for broke

    Insecurity, Forex: Tinubu’ll have to go for broke

    In one dizzying week, the Bola Tinubu administration has experienced probably its most challenging moment so far. Last Monday, gunmen believed to be kidnappers killed two travelling Ekiti State traditional rulers, while a third escaped the dragnet. On Thursday, the outlaws, but perhaps a different set, also killed another monarch in Kwara State, not too far from where the first set of killings took place. The killers acted like sleeper cells activated by remote control. They seemed to be saying that if other abductions and killings in different parts of the country would not ruffle the feathers of the president, these latest killings should. Hatred for the eight-month-old Tinubu administration is gradually ossifying in the North, while the Southeast has really never been placated, and the South-South remains unsure. With minor exceptions, the Southwest had remained a bastion of support for the administration; but now the killing of monarchs and abduction of schoolchildren may begin to stir passions.

    In the same horrendous week, foreign exchange dealers took their speculative lunacy to insane heights thus making Nigeria’s puzzled monetary authorities frantic about the plunging naira which fell to an abysmal low of N1,482 on Tuesday and N1,435 on Friday against the US dollar. Before the week ended, exchange rate for cargo clearance, which had been about N952/$ in December rose to N1,356/$. By last week, the news on the economic front was virtually apocalyptic, sending dangerous signals about an impending economic disaster. In addition, last Sunday, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Republic announced their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) without the mandatory notice. To complete his nightmare, President Tinubu is the current chairman of the regional body. But there is no need to placate the three military regimes. Just develop the remaining 12 contiguous member states, and make them a regional showpiece. Despite the security implications, the errant three which replaced French hegemony with Russian oligarchy simply lack the smartness to appreciate the implications of their actions.

    However, it is when things look dark that the true character of a man shows through. The economic/forex crisis had been simmering for decades unattended to, and the insecurity crisis has lasted for more than 15 years. The crises were expected to get much worse before the country turns the corner. However, because there are really no social safety nets, and the nets hastily cobbled together in the past few months had been poorly executed or even exploited by both elected and appointed public officials, the discontent among the poor may be threatening to boil over to the streets to the satisfaction of disaffected opposition forces. Worsening the crises are powerful elites and regional interests, many of them still hoping that somehow the whole democratic experience could be scuttled or truncated. Clearly, President Tinubu does not have the luxury of time. He needs to act now both to save his presidency as well as to deliver the country. He had tried to mollify the opposition, trodden gingerly over complex economic and social issues, and spoken cautiously to the powerful and highly connected, perhaps with an eye on future elections. Now, he will have to go for broke if insecurity and forex speculators are not to break him. Those angling for a collapse of the system foolishly think that once the process is triggered it can be controlled like specimens in laboratories. They are unrealistic.

    Read Also; Tinubu’s quest for living wage for Nigerian workers: 37 to the rescue

    Firstly, the president must convince himself that the economic crisis, particularly the Forex logjam, has been handled with dexterity and the best expertise available in the country. Does he have a group of economic experts and advisers, other than appointed officials, with whom he meets minds and debates the dominant themes of the economy? He needs to rejig his staff. At first view the panaceas applied by the administration, including palliatives, have been eclectic, reactive and often incoherent. The panaceas give the impression of a lack of surefootedness. Yet, the problems ought to be profoundly understood and clearly enunciated, and the solutions affirmed beyond a shadow of doubt, regardless of the maliciousness of economic exploiters and saboteurs implementing the scripts of opposition forces. The president must be keenly aware already that the economic condition of the people is indeed very dire, and he has a little time to remedy the problem. Yes, it must get worse before getting better, and it is also true that he is trying to grapple with issues and decisions evaded by his predecessors for decades, predecessors who opted for the low hanging fruits while jauntily passing on the rest of the nuisance to successors. President Tinubu wants to be different. That should be lauded; but he must let wisdom direct him as he calibrates what the people can absorb without threatening the safety of his administration and the stability of the country.

    Secondly, he has the more pressing and far more difficult job of stanching the flow of blood as a result of insecurity all over the country. Here he must really, really go for broke. He has to break tables and break eggs. In fact, he has little or no choice, for should the situation continue for a few more months, he will not only lose respect, even the myth of his invincibility will be shattered and the stability of the country threatened. One, a rash of informal state police imitations are springing up in many states in response to unremitting insecurity. President Tinubu should retake the initiative and kick-start the constitutional process of devolving state policing powers. This measure is urgent and cannot wait for comprehensive restructuring deals. Regional emotions are still too fragile and combustible, especially in the midst of economic storm and silly arguments about relocations of departments of federal agencies and ministries, to be added to the far more complex and sensitive restructuring process.

    Two, while the state police devolution measure is being worked out, the president needs to assemble a tactical mix of police and military squads in all the states and designate them as rapid deployment forces to fight kidnapping. Previous measures have become impotent. He should also put the legal machinery in motion to enable him and state governors activate a statewide lockdown when kidnappers strike in order to hem them in and fish them out. Had this system been in place, when kidnappers took the schoolchildren in Ekiti or killed monarchs, Ekiti would immediately have been put on lockdown, and squads in surrounding states put on red alert patrolling Ekiti boundaries until the abductors are fished out. This process must not be terminated even after the release of the captives; it must continue until the kidnappers are apprehended. The president should also consider the legal imperative of setting up special courts to try kidnappers, a trial that should terminate at the Court of Appeal, while the cases must be disposed of in a few months, say three months. This process should be applied to Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue where gunmen have continue to rampage and carry out ethnic cleansing. Lock the states down when killings occur, and the government must not rest until the perpetrators are fished out, even if it takes weeks. If former administrations were fond of sending condolences and promising to rebuild destroyed communities, the Tinubu administration should toe a completely different line.

    The president should also set up a panel to resolve why big-time kidnappers who keep captives for months and negotiate with victims’ families endlessly could mystify and wrong-foot the intelligence and security services. Are security agents complicit? There should be no excuses. The kidnappers are known to communities which replenish them, some out of fear, others out of financial inducements. The Tinubu administration should be interested in why the intelligence services have proved both inept and impotent in the face of such open challenges to the peace and stability of the country. The president should be tired of playing the rule book of his predecessors who summon security chiefs to Aso Villa when preventable tragedies occur. He should sit with them, formulate ironclad plans, task new and old agencies with arresting the situation, local hunters included, and saddle communities with the responsibility of overseeing their forests. Failure is not an option. It is time to stop the madness. With devolved policing, states should take part of the blame for insecurity. Old measures have clearly proved nugatory; it is time for a bold and innovative administration to find and apply new weapons of lifting the siege to which the nation has been subjected by nomadic criminals and their local accomplices. It is time for the president to fiercely combat the menace and set a six-month or one-year target to impose peace.

    Wike’s difficult and imposing dilemma

    Former Rivers State governor and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, Nyesom Wike, will sooner or later have to face and resolve the terrible dilemma that has dogged his path since he opted to side with the All Progressives Congress (APC) in last February’s presidential election. He was a natural Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) man and politician, not to say leader and financier when others played ducks and drakes with the affections of the opposition party. But he threw his weight behind the APC in 2022 when a few PDP hierarchs led the party to renege on its unwritten presidential zoning formula and for effect cap it up by emasculating him. That weight tilting, it must be admitted, was crucial to the success of the APC last February. But that tilting has also put Mr Wike in a quandary, unsure how to proceed politically and how best to hedge his electoral bets in the turbulent months and years ahead. He is a ministerial appointee of the APC-led federal administration, but his roots are still firmly, as far as the eyes can see, in the PDP. In short, he is the classical personification of the idiomatic expression of running with the hare, and hunting with the hounds. How far he can walk that tightrope remains to be seen.

    For Mr Wike, a part of the problem is that the APC in Rivers State is still embroiled in some kind of leadership and identity crisis, though they have invited him to defect to the party and assume leadership. Since the APC is still crisis-ridden in the state, becoming a member or assuming its leadership is fraught with a lot of uncertainties. Should Mr Wike defect, there is no proof he can quieten the storm raging in the party. Former governor Rotimi Amaechi is a part of the storm, and he still breathes down the neck of the party despite defecting to the PDP and was outmanoeuvred by Mr Wike. Mr Amaechi’s men are, however, still in the APC and are fomenting trouble and waiting for an opportunity to revenge the humiliation of their mentor. They sense that Mr Wike cannot walk the tightrope forever. They believe that he cannot stay as minister in an APC government and be fighting guerrilla wars in the PDP. They assume, with plenty of common sense, that he cannot have his cake and eat it. But the boisterous Mr Wike may soon discover that proving an idiom wrong is far easier than proving his bilious enemies wrong. The reasons are legion.

    One, a titanic battle for the soul and leadership of the PDP is afoot. At the centre of that battle is the party’s former presidential candidate, the geriatric Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president and footloose party defector. Alhaji Atiku is a vicious and vengeful political fighter who brooks no opposition, despite his geniality, nor gives quarters, despite his glib talk. Notwithstanding his age and baffling lack of substantial investment in advancing the cause of the PDP, not to talk of inspiring the refinement and reformation of the party’s essence and modus operandi, the former vice president seems bent on reusing the PDP as a special purpose vehicle for his sixth or seventh bid for the presidency. Mr Wike was his nemesis in the last election, probably the main reason he lost, if the spoiler role played by the upstart Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is discounted. Alhaji Atiku is eager to demand his pound of flesh from Mr Wike. Fighting the former vice president off while remaining a minister in the APC administration will be difficult for Mr Wike. Indeed, Alhaji Atiku will make it doubly difficult for the fence-sitting former Rivers governor to get a foothold in the party to fend off his enemies.

    Two, Mr Wike will find it somewhat comforting that the main opposition to Alhaji Atiku is constituted by the former Group of Five (G-5) governors who broke rank with the main PDP before the last presidential election as well as those who sympathised with the power shift argument which Mr Wike and the G-5 advocated. Led by Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed, who is himself interested in running for the presidency sometime in the future, the anti-Atiku group is determined to neutralise the influence of the former vice president. They have labeled him a serial presidential election loser and harbinger of bad luck. In addition they do not see him as an inspiring and refining force in the party, nor do they see him as a committed democrat and ideologue capable of rebuilding the party into a formidable electoral machine. Eager to rebuild a party that has now been thrice defeated in the polls, the PDP governors have had it up to their necks with the kind of politics and ideas Alhaji Atiku represents. Importantly too, the opposition governors know that Mr Wike has no interest in contesting the presidency on the platform of the PDP, and would probably lend a helping hand in their fight against the former vice president. In short, Alhaji Atiku’s enemies in the party, who are beginning to rouse themselves, are many, implacable and regicidal. Decapitating him is cakewalk.

    All things considered, Mr Wike is perched precariously on the horns of a dilemma. He will have to make up his mind whether to defect to the APC or stay put in the PDP. But staying in the PDP is becoming more and more untenable, as his unseemly fights in Rivers State are indicating. If he keeps his PDP membership, how would he play his politics in 2027? And if he leaves the PDP, how would he keep Rivers upon within his orbit? Mr Wike is not in an enviable position at all. Not taking the ministerial appointment would have opened him up to a terrible drubbing by the tactless Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State. Indeed the former governor’s dilemma would have been largely inexistent had he turned down the FCT appointment; but his hands would have correspondingly been weakened. Are his friends and enemies underrating his political skills? Perhaps. Maybe the feisty politician is after all more ambidextrous than most people guess.