Tag: GDP

  • Agric’s contribution to GDP low, says BOA MD

    Agric’s contribution to GDP low, says BOA MD

    Despite Nigeria’s highly diversified agro-ecological condition with a production possibility of a wide range of agricultural products, the agric sector’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and export revenue earnings remains low, the Managing Director, Bank of Agriculture, Mr. Mohammed San Turaki, has said.

    San Turaki expressed regrets that despite the nation’s resource endowment, the agricultural sector has been growing at a very low rate with the smallholder farmers constrained by many problems including poor access to modern inputs and credit, poor infrastructure, inadequate access to markets, land and environmental degradation, and inadequate research and extension services.

    He spoke at a one-day conference with the  theme: “National Dialogue on Agricultural Value Chain: Enhancing Agricultural Export Through Adequate Financing, organised by the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines & Agriculture (NACCIMA).

    He said the economy can only grow if agriculture is treated as a business where farmers produce what the market needs and can process for export.

    He said: “Unfortunately, no significant success has been achieved due to the several persistent constraints inhibiting the performance of the sector. From the perspective of sustainable agricultural growth and development in Nigeria, the most fundamental constraint is the peasant nature of the production system, with its low productivity, poor access to funding which ultimately leads to poor response to technology adoption strategies, and poor returns on investment.”

    The Bank of Agriculture boss stressed that agricultural commercialisation and investment are the key strategies for promoting accelerated modernisation, sustainable growth and development and, hence, poverty reduction in the sector. He said to attract investment into the agric sector, it is imperative that those constraints inhibiting the performance of the sector are first identified with a view to unlocking them and creating a conducive investment climate.

    He argued that it is only when Nigeria focuses on the whole agricultural value chain that the country can start exporting. He insisted that government needs to regulate the environment, land tenure system, research and development, marketing and consumers needs. The BoA boss regretted that banks will rather pay penalty than fund agriculture because of its high risk, noting that except this is addressed its contribution to the GDP will remain abysmal.

    He further stated that economic growth achieved through agriculture is three times more effective than other sectors of the economy.

    Director General, Federal Institute of Industrial Research, Dr. Gloria Elemo frowned at the weak infrastructure and budgetary provision to agric, insisting that such cannot encourage competitiveness of the sector. She also criticised the exportation of primary products at a cheap rate and importing it at a very high cost due to a little value added.

    Earlier, in his welcome address, President, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Alhaji Mohammed Badaru Abubakar said agricultural value chain is an important option for agricultural development, as higher financial returns can be realised through value enhancing inputs.

    Abubakar further said the value chain concept creates opportunities for farmers, agribusiness and entrepreneurs along the agricultural value chain to transform commodities into higher value products- a process that can play an important role in poverty reduction; creation of employment, provision of raw materials for industrial growth and generate income.

  • CBN may keep 12% interest rate as MPC meets tomorrow

    CBN may keep 12% interest rate as MPC meets tomorrow

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 12 per cent as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets tomorrow and next.

    If the MPC keeps the rate unchanged, it will be the 18th time in a row, it is taking such stance in an effort to control inflation and support the naira.

    This week’s MPC meeting will be the second chaired by the new CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, and will be closely watched by foreign investors and analysts.

    The former managing director of Zenith Bank, struck a dovish tone on rates two days after taking office in June, saying he would seek a gradual reduction in borrowing costs, which have been stuck at 12 per cent since late 2011.

    That is much higher than the 5.75 per cent in South Africa, which Nigeria overtook to become Africa’s largest economy earlier this year, and 8.50 per cent in Kenya.

    Inflation  rose to a 10-month high of 8.5 per cent in August, closer to the CBN’s upper limit of nine per cent, after rising for five straight months this year on higher food prices and excess liquidity.

    “Higher risk premiums and fiscal profligacy related to the election will keep pressure on the currency and price growth and Emefiele and his team will not want to exacerbate that by loosening policy too aggressively,” said Matthew Searle, sub-Saharan Africa Analyst at Business Monitor International.

    Also, an Economist at Vetiva Capital, Adedayo Idowu, said with the compression in fixed-income yields, as short-tenor maturities head south below the 10 per cent levels, the risks of negative real rates on Nigerian assets will again resurface.

    Meanwhile analysts at Renaissance Capital (RenCap), an investment and research firm,  have pre-dicted interest rate cuts by December next year to allow credit growth and boost real sector production.

    Global Chief Economist at RenCap Charles Robertson said in the “Sub Saharan Africa Macro Strategy” released on Monday,  that such step would allow interest rate move from high single digit, to mid-teens.

    “Post-elections, we expect interest rate cuts in the second-half of 2015, which we think will allow year-on-year credit growth to pick up from current high single-digits to the mid-teens. This is positive for equities and the banks.

    “Equally, it should give a lift to the consumer, as the effect of any pre-election wage hikes dissipates. We believe expansionary fiscal policy in 2015 is unlikely, due to capacity constraints and a desire to keep debt levels low,” he said.

    He said the 2015 elections, though very near, should not distract investors. “Yes, elections are almost upon us in February, 2015, but we do not think that should detract from Nigeria’s otherwise solid macro credentials – especially given our view that the electoral process and outcome will be relatively stable,” he said.

    Robertson explained that Nigeria is well ahead of the other countries under its coverage, given its improving external reserves position  which cover nine to 10 months imports,  and a small fiscal deficit of one to  two per cent of GDP.

    He said a recovery in the oil sector has led to stronger growth, which has been upwardly revised to 6.3 per cent and 6.5 per cent in 2014  and 2015, against prior forecasts of 5.7 per cent and 5.6 per cent.

    He said: “We prefer Nigerian banks to Kenyan banks on a valuation basis. Admittedly, the operating environment in Nigeria is tougher against other key Sub-Saharan Africa markets and this has led to a lower sector-wide Return on Equity.

    “The good news is, we see a recovery from December 2015, when we expect Nigeria’s monetary policy to ease, which is banks-positive.”

  • Identify opportunities, pharmacists urged

    Pharmacists have been urged to identify business potential in the sub-sector.The call was made at a preconference briefing of the Association of  Industral Pharmacists of Nigeria (NAIP) in Lagos

    According to the association, the sector contributes a paltry 0.5 per cent to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

    At a pre-conference briefing, the association said pharmacists need to show interest in business aspect of their profession.

    Its Conference Planning Committee Chairman, Mr John Adekoje, said many issues, such as the chaotic drug distribution and regulations, would be discussed.

    Adekoje said the 17th conference has the theme: Tapping the opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry for wealth creation.

    He said about 80 per cent of drugs are being imported, adding that investors can pull resources together to boost local drug manufacturing.

    Adekoje said more pharmaceutical companies should get the World Health Organisation’s (WHO’s) pre-qualifications to make them sell drugs internationally.

    Executive Secretary, NAIP, Mr Adebayo Temenu, said there was no enough production capacity.

    He said Nigeria needs to improve its drugs production to the level of countries, such as United States, India and Germany, for it to be able to satisfy local consumption and export medicines.

    Temenu said the Federal Government can initiate research grant for the development of mega companies for new products. “It is not proper for retailers to buy drugs from manufacturers directly rather from wholesalers who go through the distribution chain,” he said.

    Temenu said some of the problems of the sector would be addressed at 17th National Conference of NAIP in Lagos on today and tomorrow.

  • ICSAN seeks employment for youths

    The Federal Government has been told to provide employment for youths to reduce poverty.

    This would also remove them from the streets, as well as, being used for other negative tendencies, such as insurgency.

    The President, Institute of Chartered Secretaries and Administrators of Nigeria (ICSAN), Dr. Suleyman Ndanusa, made the call at a briefing in Abuja on the 38th Annual Conference and Dinner of the body billed for next Tuesday and Wednesday at Eko Hotel and Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos.

    According to Ndanusa, the conference has three sub-themes: “Shareholders activism: Any added value to governance? “Governance and security: the cost of doing business in Nigeria”; and corporate compliance: The role of the chartered secretary”.

    He said the provision of jobs would also reduce insecurity.

    He emphasised the need for education and the enunciation of economic policies that would  affect the citizens.

    The ICSAN boss said the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country should put smiles on the faces of Nigerians. He stressed the need for an impact assessment of government’s policies, pointing out that the country did not lack good policies but implementation.

    On energy, Ndanusa, also Chairman, Securities and Exchange (SEC), praised the Federal Government for taking the bold step in privatising the sector.

    He expressed confidence that the power sector would improve, adding that privatisation was a process.

    The ICSAN chief said the level of decay in the sector would take some time to address, urging Nigerians to be patient with the government.

    He called for the promotion of good Corporate Governance.

    The conference is expected to attract participants from both the private and public sectors, the academia, as well as, professionals both at home and abroad.

  • GDP stands at 6.5 per cent in second quarter of 2014

    GDP stands at 6.5 per cent in second quarter of 2014

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday said the growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at 6.54 per cent in second quarter of this year.

    In a statement  by the Statistician-General of the Federation, Dr Yemi Kale, in Abuja, Kale said the figure was 0.14 higher than 5.40 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013, and also higher than the 6.21per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2014.

    “In the second quarter of 2014, Nigeria’s Nominal GDP (at basic prices) was estimated at N 21.7 billion and16.1 billion in real terms.

    “In the corresponding quarter of 2013, nominal GDP was estimated N19.9 billion and N15.1 billion in real terms,’’ the statistician-general said.

    He said the average daily crude oil production in the second quarter of 2014 stood at 2.21 Million Barrel Per Daily (MBPD) as against 2.11 mbpd in the corresponding quarter of 2013.

    “This is an increase of 0.10 mbpd or 4.7 per cent. In addition, the US dollar price of crude increased significantly from an average price of 104.31 per cent in second (Q2) 2013 to 112.25 in Q2 of 2014, an increase of 7.6 per cent.

    “Consequently, Oil GDP was valued at N2.6 billion in nominal terms in the second quarter of 2014, compared to N2.6 billion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013,’’ he said.

    He said real growth in the oil sector was recorded at 5.40 per cent in Q2 2014 (-5.22% quarter-on-quarter), indicating better performance compared to -16.42 per cent growth recorded in Q2 of 2013.

    Kale said the non-oil real sector of the economy grew by 6.71per cent in the second quarter of 2014.

    “This is a decline of 2.17 percentage points from the 8.88 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2013.

    “Relative to Q1 of 2013, non-oil growth was also lower by 1.49 percentage points when growth was recorded at 8.21 per cent.’’

    Kale said the services sector accounted for the largest share of real GDP in the second quarter of 2014, amounting to N8.5 billion or 53.15 per cent.

    “Industry ranked second with a contribution of N4.2 billion or 25.96 per cent, while agriculture constituted the smallest sector in the second quarter, representing N3.4 billion or 20.89 per cent of GDP.’’

  • FAO sees fisheries, aquaculture grow GDP

    The fisheries and aquaculture sector contribute significantly to Africa’s overall economy, a new study by Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said.

    In a report, the value added by the fisheries sector as a whole – which includes inland and marine capture fisheries, post-harvest, licensing of local fleets and aquaculture – was estimated at more than $24 billion in 2011, representing 1.26 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of all African countries.

    A close look at the figures highlights the key role of marine artisanal fisheries and related processing, as well as inland fisheries which provide one third of the continent’s total catches.

    While aquaculture is still developing in Africa and is mostly concentrated in a few countries, it produces an estimated value of almost $3 billion yearly.

    As data on licence fees paid by foreign fleets were not easily available to the national experts participating in this study, an attempt was also made to estimate the value of fisheries agreements with Distant Water Fishing Nations (DWFNs) fishing in the exclusive economic zones of African states.

    Considering that 25 per cent of all marine catches around Africa are still by non-African countries, if also these catches were caught by African states in theory they could generate an additional value of $3.3 billion, which is eight times higher than the current $0.4 billion African countries earn from fisheries agreements

    All in all, the sector as a whole employs 12.3 million people as full-time fishers or full-time and part-time processors, representing over two per cent of 15-64 year olds in Africa.

  • NACCIMA urges Fed Govt to engage private sector in policy formulation

    NACCIMA urges Fed Govt to engage private sector in policy formulation

    The Vice President, Nigeria Association of  Chambers of Commerce Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Prince Billy Gillis-Harry, has urged the government to engage the private sector in policy formulation.

    He also emphasised the place of collaboration between public and private sectors in the provision of sustainable infrastructure needed for economic growth.

    Speaking with The Nation, he said the business environment is low, adding that the policies that should kick-start the growth of the economy are not not in place.

    He said: “Our government  is the biggest spender; to guarantee consistent growth and source of employment to deplete the rate of unemployment, but the government in Nigeria is still the biggest spender. All the major projects like construction of roads, airport, repairs, are all handled by the government.

    “Banks, of course, are still very slow in supporting businesses; banks only know how to keep money and charging high transaction costs. This is discouraging because shareholders invest in business to make profit, and the profit must be proactive, protected to protect new entrants, new ideas or innovation.”

    On the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) gathering dust on the floor of the National Assembly, he said it is a bill aimed at tackling the excesses in the industry, adding that local content is also vital to grow indigenous capacity in the oil and gas sector.

    “Local content, as a new law, which the Federal Government has enacted, is to boost indigenous participation in the nation’s oil and gas industry. I think it is the right way to go. If Nigeria must be industrialised and must be stable, not just in the oil and gas, but in all aspects of our national economy, local content should be a focus where a greater percentage of what is the component of anything we consume here is home-grown. They should be manufactured here with the intent of raising the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

    ‘’I think local content should be the way to go. The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) is doing well. I think, so far, they are doing as much as they can in the oil and gas industry, which is what the law says. However, I think they should be expanded to manufacturing and food production so that agriculture can come back as the mainstream of the economy.’’

  • GOtv: Creating values  through skill training

    GOtv: Creating values through skill training

    WHAT should ordinarily have elicited joy in most Nigerians clearly paned into utter incredulity from them. The source of their disbelief was the purported improvement in the economy due to a recent rebasing of the Gross Domestic Products, GDP.

    The exercise, a global practice, reportedly showed that the economy was worth $55 billion and leading all other economies in Africa. The new figure came about through a recalculation that took into account developing sectors, like the thriving film industry, which were missing from previous stocktaking.

    Although it is hard to deny that growing private sector participation has affected the economy in more positive ways than one, what seems difficult to prove is whether the effect has yielded more jobs for more people, particularly the majority of youths, now than in the previous years.

    With young people constituting over 60 percent of the country’s population and more than 75 percent of its active workforce, there is certainly a cause for worry.

    Sadly, attention to vocational skills training and entrepreneurial development has waned drastically, thereby creating a scarcity of skilled manpower and entrepreneurs. The situation last year drew the notice of the Federal Government that constituted a presidential working committee on the revamp of technical education in the country.

    That this conundrum is worth the bother of GOtv, the digital terrestrial pay TV service provider, is remarkable and worthy of emulation by other private sector players. Like its managing company, MultiChoice Nigeria, GOtv has created direct and indirect employment for many young Nigerians through its value chain. In this orbit are numerous freelance installers and technicians.

    GOtv’s latest effort called “Get Up and Go” aims at training the youths in skills related to its enterprise, with opportunity to become their own bosses. First launched in Jos, Plateau State, the trainees will be taught proper antenna installation and service activation on GOtv set-top boxes (decoders), among others.

    Experience gathered by the trainees will also enable them to respond to customers’ queries and resolve sundry secondary issues bothering on GOtv products. GOtv stated that the scheme would comprise “a formal training workshop, as well as hands-on practical sessions” handled by both in-house and external resource persons.

    Aside GOtv, notable youth-oriented non-governmental organisations (NGOs), will also give fillip to the training programme in collaborative capacity. The seasoning to the skills training is the unique branding of the newly minted technicians as sabi men, meaning “Men who know how to.”

    At the end of the exercise, the sabi men will receive certificates of completion and tools, Starter Parks, for their use. They, in turn, will deploy the “how-tos” they have learnt from practical instructions to servicing subscribers resident in their neighbourhoods.

    The “neighbourhood” weave to the programme, Gotv explained, was to ensure that subscribers do not experience delay in having their queries and enquires resolved, since a typical sabi man is possibly their next-door neighbour.

    This also puts boldly the reason GOtv is prioritising recruiting participants for its training from various neighbourhoods across the country where its signals are running.

    This, notwithstanding, the pay-TV provider is also saying that it is part of initiatives to position itself for the digital switch-over that will culminate next June.

    As part of the global technology phenomenon, Nigeria, which signed to the International Telecommunication Union( ITU) agreements in 2006 in Geneva, will revolutionise its broadcasting method. Simply put, it will abandon the analogue broadcast technology for the latest generation digital technology.

    On this score, GOtv, as well as its subscribers, already enjoys an advantage, since it has, from its inception, operated the technology known as digital terrestrial technology II, DVBT2.

    By adding the sabi men initiative, GOtv may have advertently created a mileage to mop  a considerably larger interest than its competitors in ordinary Nigerians, with appetite for digital terrestrial pay-TV service that offers premium contents.

    Elizabeth Amkpa, General Manager, GOtv, explained that the idea of Get Up and GO was not only to deliver quicker and more efficient services to subscribers, but to also “underscore the pay-TV’s resolve to creating shared values in its operating environments.”

    Amkpa’s clarification definitely syncs with  the Michael Porter and Mark Kramer theory of competitive strategy.

    According to Porter and Kramer, managing director of FSG, a non-profit consulting firm, businesses driven by a motivation for creating collective values and not predominantly profit-seeking will spur innovation and productive growth in the global economy.

    “The purpose of the corporation must be redefined as creating shared value, not just profit per se. This will drive the next wave of innovation and productivity growth in the global economy. It will also reshape capitalism and its relationship to society. Perhaps most important of all, learning how to create shared value is our best chance to legitimise business again,” Porter and Kramer said.

  • Nigeria eyes $900b GDP by 2020 to boost economy

    Nigeria eyes $900b GDP by 2020 to boost economy

    Nigeria is targeting a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of  about  $900 billion by 2020 to enable it realise its vision of being among the top world’s 20 economies.

    Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited Bismark Rewane said the objective was to enhance the economy.

    In a report titled: “Rebasing Nigeria’s economy and implications For FSS 2020”, the economist said GDP measures the size and activities in a country at a particular point.

    He said the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC) recommended that countries rebase their GDP every five years, adding that Nigeria has been using 1990 base year until the April 6, this year’s rebasing that took the economy size to nearly $510 billion.

    Rewane said the attention the rebasing attracted suggested a need for a more structured argument for the exercise, adding that investment is necessary for capital accumulation and economic growth.

    “In April 2014, Nigeria rebased its GDP and changed its base year to 2010 from 1990. As a result, Nigeria is now regarded as a medium income economy. The rebasing exercise helped incorporate the informal sector into the national accounts and this showed a great increase in activities of the service sector of the Nigerian economy,” he said.

    Rewane said the rebasing has enabled the service sector to be better covered and has shown that economic activities, such as wholesale and retail trade, information and communication, real estate services, human health and social services, professional, scientific and technical services have gained importance in the country.

    He said the service sector was expected to grow fastest and ahead of sectors, such as industry and agriculture. He noted that while Nigeria is becoming slightly more diversified, the country is heading towards a more service-oriented economy.

    Rewane said the FSS 2020 Vision was developed to make Nigeria the safest and fastest-growing financial system among emerging economies.

    “It is made to strengthen the Nigerian domestic financial markets; enhance their integration with external financial markets; and engineer Nigeria’s evolution into an international financial centre (IFC),” he said.

    “In terms of performance so far, highest levels of achievement might have been recorded in the areas of predictable exchange rate, single digit inflation and financial (banking) soundness. At the other extreme end however, achievements in the areas of integrating informal financial sector, achieving a strong knowledge-based capital market and creating enabling environment and finance for SMEs can still be described as low. Also, in the other remaining areas, the levels of achievement can still be described as marginal and requiring much effort,” he said.

    On investment, he said it entails additions to the economy’s capital stock, involving the purchase of goods that are not consumed today used in the future to create wealth.

    He said investment could also be classified into domestic and foreign. The components of domestic investments are private domestic investment and public domestic investment, the latter being investments by government and public enterprises on social and economic infrastructures, real estate and tangible assets. Equally, foreign investment can be foreign direct investment (FDI) or Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI). While the former is investment in tangible assets by foreigners, the latter is their investments in shares, bonds, securities among others.

    Rewane said all these forms of investments are complementary and necessary for economic growth and development of the nation.

    He said higher interest rate imply higher cost of capital and this tends to reduce domestic investment; however, it may also serve as an indication of return on the investments of foreigners thereby aiding foreign inflows. He said increase in GDP is expected to increase domestic investment through what is known as the accelerator principle; it also encourages market-seeking FDI since higher GDP imply higher market size.

  • HSBC raises China’s GDP

    Banking giant HSBC has upgraded its forecast for China’s yearly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 7.5 per cent from 7.4 per cent, saying recovery has been stronger than expected.

    The Chinese economy expanded 7.5 per cent year on year and 2 percent quarter to quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, China’s economy expanded 7.4 per cent from a year earlier.

    GDP growth in the second quarter “surprised on the upside relative to our forecast” owing to stronger-than-expected government support measures, HSBC Chief China Economist Qu Hongbin said in a report on Monday.

    Activity data suggests that most of the improvement came in June, with monthly fixed asset investment and industrial production growing 17.9 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively, compared with 16.9 percent and 8.8 per cent in May.

    Policy support has been instrumental in helping China’s economy recover more quickly and strongly than expected. Bank lending picked up greatly in June, and fiscal spending accelerated in May and last month. As a result, infrastructure investment and related manufacturing investment accelerated.

    Government policies, particularly fiscal policy, will likely be even more supportive in the second half as it is traditionally the spending season, Qu said. “We expect the cumulative impact of easing measures to continue filtering through and policymakers to maintain their accommodative stance.”

    Despite revision of the 2014 GDP forecast, Qu said HSBC’s broad outlook on the Chinese economy remains unchanged.

    In the near term, infrastructure investment will remain the policy of choice when it comes to supporting growth. Continued reform measures to expand the municipal bond market, regulate shadow bank lending and restructure state-owned enterprises will help reduce funding risks. Both monetary and fiscal policy will remain accommodative to consolidate the recovery, according to the report.

    The main downside risk to HSBC’s forecast for China remains the property sector. Although the contraction in sales eased in June, funding and investment growth remained depressed.

    However, Chinese policymakers can offset the negative impact given that they have a broad range of policy tools at their disposal, Qu said.