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Tag: Gen Muhammadu Buhari

  • Tortuous road to victory

    Tortuous road to victory

    Gen Muhammadu Buhari probably scaled fewer hurdles throughout the 24 years that his military career lasted than the ones he was made to scale between October 2014 and last Saturday. Deputy News Editor Bunmi Ogunmodede captures the bumps that were placed before the President-elect to frustrate him out of the race.

    The road to victory for the All Progressives Congress (APC) was tortuous. There were landmines from the formation of the party to the polls which eventually held last Saturday.

    It took the opposition forces in the three parties that passed for regional movements to come together under the APC to give the self-acclaimed largest party in Africa the challenge.

    The parties, now defunct are: the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) as well as a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by Imo State Governor Owelle Rochas Okorocha.

     

    Registration bumps

     

    An amorphous group laid claim to the APC franchise and approached the court to stop the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from registering the new party. The association claimed both the name and the logo belonged to it.

    But the APC under the interim chairmanship of Chief Bisi Akande convinced the court that INEC had no such name and logo in its records when the party approached it for registration. The court declined the prayer of the association and INEC eventually listed APC in its register of political parties.

    As soon as it secured INEC’s Certificate of Registration, the APC became a platform for the opposition – some genuine, others fair-weather politicians and many strange bird fellows.

     

    The Abuja Convention

     

    The Convention which at the Eagle Square, Abuja where the party elected its officials forced the spies and fifth columnists to leave the same way they came into the party. They were bitter that they failed to clinch vital party positions.  For instance, former Foreign Affairs Minister Chief Tom Ikimi returned to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) after his kinsman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, clinched the APC chairmanship. Though Ikimi alleged that he was being treated as an outsider in the party he helped to form, the party said it was risky to give those it described as moles leadership positions. Former Borno State Governor Ali Modu Sherrif also defected to the PDP. But the victory of the APC at the presidential and National Assembly elections has clearly showed that the exit of some characters was of no political consequence on the APC.

     

    The Lagos Convention

     

    The belief was that the APC would go into extinction after its National Convention at the Teslim Balogun Stadium, Surulere, Lagos. But the process that led to the emergence of Gen Muhammadu Buhari, a former Head of State, as the party’s standard bearer for the presidential election, further united all the contenders in line with the undertaking they had signed to rally support for whoever emerged as long as the process was transparent.

     

    Running mate

     

    It took the APC six clear days after it picked Gen. Buhari to name Prof Olayemi Osinbajo as his running mate. The choice of Osinbajo, a law teacher and a Senior Pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) unsettled the ruling party. Osinbajo laid to rest speculations that the APC would pair Muslims on its ticket.

     

    Religion

     

    The APC presidential candidate was labelled a jihadist who will drag Nigeria into the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC), if elected. He was portrayed as a religion bigot who has a soft spot for Islamic militants. But the stain failed to stick. His driver and cook of 20 years according to reports, are devoted Christians. Besides, his running mates during the three previous attempts   – at the presidency in 2003, 2007 and 2011 – are Christians.

     

    Ethnicity

     

    Those opposed to the Gen. Buhari presidency branded him as an ethnic jingoist, whose passion is limited to the North. This also failed to convince discerning Nigerians, who insited on change – the APC slogan.

     

    Certificate

     

    At a point, the issue of Gen. Buhari’s educational attainment was brought up and his opponents said he had not satisfied the educational requirement to run for the presidency. The statutory prerequisite is the West Africa School Certificate (WASCE). He had filled in his INEC intent form that a copy could be obtained in its file with the Military Secretary. But the issue became a subject of controversy when the military said it only has a recommendation letter from his erstwhile principal that he was qualified to be enlisted into the army in 1961. It took the incumbent principal of Government College (Pilot), Katsina to re-issue a file copy of Buhari’s WASCE Statement of Result before the matter was laid to rest, even the aggrieved rushing to court rooms to have him disqualified.

     

    Health

     

    Even when his doctor certified him medically fit, his opponents insisted he was terminally ill and urged Nigerians not to vote for him.

     

    Hate Adverts

     

    When all failed to stop him, Gen. Buhari’s opponents resorted to hate documentaries and publication of hate adverts to cast aspersions on his person. Several billions went into the drains to sponsor such advertisements, many of which never achieved their intended aims.

     

    Postponement

     

    Exactly a week to the presidential and National Assembly elections, the electoral umpire, on the advice of security chiefs, announced a six-week postponement of the elections from February 14 and 28 to March 28 and April 11.

    Beyond the security challenges that were cited in the Northwestern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe as reasons for the polls’ shift, the measure was to allow the ruling party some space to do some damage control taking the advantage of the six-week window. It was also believed that the opposition would have run out of campaign funds to sustain the tempo.

     

    SCRs/PVCs

     

    When it dawned on those bent on manipulating the electoral process that the use of the SCRs and the PVCs will not allow electoral fraud, they mounted a campaign against the devices. The biometric verification of the PVCs prevented the illegal use of ware-housed PVCs to vote.

     

    Manipulation

     

    The figures returned from some states created an impression that they were doctored and allocated to the 14 political parties that were on the ballot.

     

  • Can Jonathan win this election?

    Can Jonathan win this election?

    The stage is set for the presidential poll. Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and his main challenger, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, are on the last lap of mobilisation across the six geo-political zones. Unlike in 2011, the President faces more hurdles. Amid the popular clamour for change, can he weather the storm? Group Political Editor Emmanuel Oladesu highlights the major issues that will shape the contest.

    NIGERIA, the most populous African nation-state, will decide on its future on Saturday. Consensus may be difficult at the critical poll. This is due to its plurality and inherent conflicts of interests among stakeholders. There are divergent perceptions about the issues on the front burner. These may be moderated by such stronger factors as ethnicity and religious leanings. There seems to be a balance of strength and wit. But, at the close of polls, it is expected that voters would have either voted to retain the status quo or change for a better future.

    The election is taking place at a critical period. The nation is in despair. The economy is on crutches. Other sectors are ailing. Electricity is beyond reach. Other social infrastructure have collapsed. Many of the states cannot pay salaries. Many graduates face a bleak future. The jobs are not just  there. Corruption is soaring in high places. Nigeria has almost become a laughing stock in the international community. Insecurity has driven away investments. It is the tragedy of a promising country; a country endowed with vast human talents and natural endowment, but lacking the right leadership.

    According to the House of Representatives Committee on Legislative Budget and Research, N360 billion is spent on the procurement of generators and diesels for 708 Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). In this years Budget, 84 per cent is earmarked for recurrent expenditure while 16 per cent is for capital expenditure. Irked by these figures, the Chairman of the Committee,  Opeyemi Bamidele, said that the President has bad advisers.

    “Who are the people advising the President? These figures are scaring and scandalous. Nigeria is bleeding,” he said.

    Four years ago, the choice before Nigerians was narrow. However, the diverse people of the highly heterogeneous country now have two options. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), President Goodluck Jonathan, who assumed the reins, following the death of his predecessor, Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua. He is fighting for survival. His second term bid appears to be a Herculean task, unlike in 2011, when certain factors worked in his favour. His challenger, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), seems to be waxing stronger as the rallying point for the formidable opposition party – the All Progressives Congress (APC).

     

    Core issues

     

    In 2011, many factors shaped the presidential election. These included the succession battle following Yar’Adua’s demise, the voting history of the electorate, states and regions; ethnic leaning, political sentiment, perception of the people about the leading candidates, and Southwest sympathy for the President. But, some of the factors have faded away.

    When Yar’Adua died after a protracted illness, the mantle fell on Dr. Jonathan. Although Northern elements in the ruling PDP demanded for a successor from the North, the agitation was devoid of logic and it ran contrary to the constitution. The doctrine of necessity was invoked to elevate the former vice president to an acting president in his principal’s long absence. When he was eventually catapulted to the front seat, preparations for the general elections of 2011 had started. The PDP considered him as the proper person to fly its flag, owing to the incumbency factor.

     

    Ethnicity

     

    Ethnic jingoism was another key factor. The sentiment was fueled in the Southsouth that the son of the soil was thrown up by fate at a time the region was clamouring for a sense of belonging under the fragile federation. It was a taboo for any Southsoutherner to raise a dissenting voice. The President appropriated the bloc goodwill flowing from regional solidarity. Today, that sentiment has evaporated. Addressing some youths in Abuja, Festus Keyamo, a lawyer- politician, said Nigerians will not vote for any candidate because of his tribal background. He said the pattern of voting will reveal that people have rejected ethnic sentiment. The lawyer, who is from the oil-rich Niger Delta, said Nigerians will vote for intelligent leaders who can perform.

    The ethnic card being played by the President in this electioneering may have also backfired. How to share the carrot thrown at the pan-Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, Ndigbo groups, the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) and monarchs in the Southwest is now a bone of contention. The strategy became counter-productive in the Southwest. As the OPC was on rampage, vandalising APC campaign posters, billboards and other materials, many people contented that a vote for the PDP will be a vote for terror.

     

    Religion

     

    Also gone with the wind is the religious bigotry of 2011. There was a campaign of calumny, which was to the advantage of the PDP candidate. Christians demanded for power shift based on religion. Spin doctors went into town, sensitising people into the barriers being mounted by Muslims against a Christian candidate. The South caught the bug.

    According to analysts, the strong sentiment and sympathy for the President in the politically conscious Southwest was hinged on regional altruism. The people of the Southwest rose up as defenders of the minority interest, which Dr. Jonathan represented. In their view, the President has just settled down, after men of goodwill liberated his administration from the jaw of cabals. Thus, he deserved the opportunity to try his luck at the polls as a matter of right, and in accordance with the constitution.

    Reality may have dawned on the zone that it had a wrong perception of the Commander-in-Chief. The number one citizen had evoked passion when he humbly approached voters for support. He described himself as the poorest of the poor; a shoeless boy from Otuoke, Bayelsa State, who through the grace of education, dint of hard work and sheer fate, rose to stardom. Many Nigerians deiced to identify with his aspiration. But, it appeared that they had deluded themselves into thinking that the poor boy from the pauperised clan would redress the injustice of poverty and make life abundant for all.

     

    Serious competition

     

    At the presidential election, President Jonathan got 22.5 million votes. Despite all these factors, Gen. Buhari, who contested on the platform of a seemingly fragile party, the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), scored 12.2 million votes. The former military Head of State’s performance in the South was woeful. The candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, was like a spectator on poll day. He got 2.1 million votes.

    The analysis of the pre-2015 voting pattern showed that Dr. Jonathan benefitted from multiple goodwill. He was a formidable candidate. Many thought that he had the experience, having served as deputy governor, governor, vice president, acting president and president. Then, the PDP was also a formidable platform. Indeed, other parties trembled before the ruling party because of its indomitable arsenal, structure and resources.

    When the North objected to the President’s candidature, former President Olusegun Obasanjo became his armour bearer in that region. He was his campaign manager. The former President wielded enormous influence among PDP leaders in the North. He was instrumental to the ascension of many governors, senators and ministers in the zone. It was therefore easy for the former PDP Board of Trustees (BOT) Chairman to pacify  aggrieved  chieftains pushing for power shift in the post-Yar’dua period. Obasanjo was also Dr. Jonathan’s coach up to the presidential primaries. To neutralise his opponent at the shadow poll, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Obasanjo would rise from his seat to speak some words into the President’s ears at that moment of anxiety and tension. Thus, President Jonathan defeated the Turaki Adamawa at the primaries.

    On the election day, Ribadu was no match for him. But, Gen Buhari put up a good fight. Many factors worked against the retired General. His CPC was very weak in the South. The former Head of State was like a lone ranger. He mooted an alliance with the defunct ACN, but it floundered. When the ACN/CPC deal collapsed, it was said that the General has not learned the ropes. According to sources, he was deficient in partisan negotiation and political abnegation. He was less inflexible and more condescending. Gen. Buhari had no foot soldiers beyond some states in the North, where he had fanatical loyalists. The media rated him as a candidate who would struggle, but without success.

     

    Strong opposition

     

    Also, Gen. Buhari’s campaigns were not vigorous. The CPC was hurriedly put together, following the contradiction in the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). It was a defective structure in the sense that it lacked a national outlook. The CPC was a sectional platform. The CPC standard bearer was not perceived as a formidable opponent across the six geo-political zones. Despite his success in some Northern states, he could not muster an equivalent electoral strength below the Niger.

    In 2011, many perceived Gen. Buhari as a Northern irredentist and a religious bigot. No effort was made to debunk the allegations. The propaganda, in part, succeeded. But, he made a spirited appeal to populism. He mounted the rostrum, calling attention to his personal lifestyle. He said he has not made money at the expense of the country while in public service. Only a few cared to listen to his message.

    When Buhari also selected a running mate, it was a wrong choice. His running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare, a lawyer-turned preacher and a Senior Pastor, Latter Rain Assembly is not in the class of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN). A brilliant commentator, he is not known to be a politician. Bakare was not a political asset, despite his popularity in the pro-democracy family.

     

    Break from the past

     

    But, it is a clean break from the past. Things are changing.  Gen. Buhari now has foot soldiers. On his side are veterans in the art of winning elections. His party, the APC, is bigger, solid and more formidable than the CPC. The merger has been successful. Unlike the PDP, it is not troubled by crisis. Defections from the APC has not decimated it in a way that its chances will be grossly affected at the polls.

    In contrast, PDP has not recovered from the mass defection. The party is a shadow of itself. Since the President has not lived up to expectation, the incumbency factor is waning. The collapse of the incumbency factor is underscored by the way and manner the President and other PDP chieftains have been running from pillar to post. In the past, President Jonathan never experienced much stressful campaigns. It is a different ball game in this electioneering.

     

    New permutations

     

    The permutations in the battle ground states of Edo, Rivers, Ekiti and Ondo may have also been altered, to the consternation of the PDP. In Edo, the calculus has changed. Between President Jonathan and Governor Adams Oshiomhole, there is a clash of interests. The governor is in charge, despite the PDP’s rebellion. In 2011, the comrade-governor could not move against Dr. Jonathan. The state could not dump a kinsman from Bayelsa for an opponent from Adamawa. In the Southsouth state, governorship election will not hold. But, for Oshiomhole to survive in the post-2015 era, APC parliamentary candidates must scale through at the polls. Indded, the ruling party in Edo has formidable candidates for the elections. It is relatively easier for the governor to approach voters for support because he has performed.

    Stakeholders have applauded the governor for his giant strides. The same has not been said of the President. In fact, last week, the Benin royal palace denied that it has endorsed the President for a second term.

    In Rivers, PDP has been balkanised, ahead of the polls. The defection of the governor, Rotimi Amaechi, and prominent chieftains to the APC, has decimated the chapter. Unlike 2011, when the PDP harvested a miraculous two million bloc votes, there will be a stiff competition for power in the oil-rich state at the general elections. In Rivers, APC has formidable governorship and parliamentary candidates.

    Ondo State will also be an interesting battle field. In 2011, Governor Olusegun Mimiko worked for the President as a chieftain of the Labour Party (LP). Few months ago, he defected to the PDP. His defection enlarged the PDP’s coast. But, the party also became fractionalised. Aggrieved chieftains have been grumbling that the governor has come to lord it over them. During the primaries, there was confusion. Reconciliation has not been effected. Besides, the presidential election is not standing alone. As people vote for the presidential candidates, they are also expected to elect lawmakers. The arrangement may confuse rural voters.

    The election will not be a walk over for any of the candidates. But, unlike 2011, the President will not have an easy ride.

  • Disability not a death sentence, says Buhari

    Disability not a death sentence, says Buhari

    •Promises commission for the disabled

    Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.), has a message for Nigerians with disabilities.

    Their disabilities, he said yesterday, do not amount to a death sentence.

    He said with strong power and will power they can surmount any obstacles on their way.

    Buhari, who spoke at a town hall meeting with people with disability and the physically challenged in Lafia, the Nasarawa State capital, promised to set up a National Ombudsman to look after the welfare of people with disabilities.

    He pointed at the late American President, Franklin Roosevelt, and Professor Steven Hawking, astrophysicist of Cambridge University, England as example of physically challenged figures who rose to prominence. The presidential hopeful said nobody with disabilities has any good reason not to succeed and contribute to humanity.

    According to him: “Physically challenged people have rights and also have contributions to the national efforts.

    “If, by the grace of God, APC wins the elections next week, we will fulfill our electoral promise to appoint a Federal Ombudsman for people with disabilities to combat discrimination against the disabled.

    “The Ombudsman will take care of rehabilitation, employment of disabled persons and participation in public life, among others.”

    The Director, Disability APC Presidential Campaign Council, Dr. Sam Ankeli, said this was the first time any presidential candidate was interfacing with people with disabilities.

    He stressed it was a clear sign that the APC will run an inclusive government.

    Ankeli said: “APC has shown us that they are compassionate, faithful and have integrity. They are fair and powerful.

    “Nigerians with disabilities are more than 23 million. But no government has remembered us.

    “We are confident that APC because they have included us at this level will remember us when they form government.”

  • Jonathan versus Buhari: The final permutations

    Jonathan versus Buhari: The final permutations

    In six days, Nigerians will file out for the long-awaited poll. The past six weeks has been dotted with intense bickering, lobbying, ‘naira and dollar rains’, and outright hate campaigns. Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo, Assistant Editor and Sunday Oguntola review the outlook in the 36 states and the FCT and project likely outcomes.

    This Saturday Nigerians will determine who will lead them in the next four years. Out of the 55,904, 272 eligible voters who had collected their permanent voter cards (PVCs) as at Friday, March 20, 2015, 31, 957, 327 will vote in the 19 Northern states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

    Before the February 7 postponement the momentum was clearly on the side of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. The six-week shift pushed through by the Presidency was supposed to enable President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) regain the initiative.

    However, certain unscripted interventions may have worsened the case of the incumbent in certain regions. First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan may have gravely damaged her husband’s chances in the North when she accused Northerners of poor family planning. She said: Wetin him dey find again? Him dey drag with him pikin mate…Old man wey no get brain, him brain don die pata pata. Our people no dey born shildren wey dem no dey fit count . Our men no dey born shildren throway for street. We no dey like the people for that side.”

    Not even the successful military campaign against the insurgents in the North-East has altered the dynamics of the race in the North. A status report on the presidential contest from state to state follows – beginning with those in the North.

    KEBBI

    The tide is much more in favour of APC because many stalwarts or match-winners of PDP have defected to the opposition. They include leaders like ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleuiman Mohammed Argungu and even APC governorship candidate, Sen. Atiku Bagudu.

    The signs of the APC increasing acceptance emerged when the outgoing First Lady, Zainab Dakingari, personally took on the former FCT Minister who handed her over to the governor.

    The depth of APC’s grassroots support was underlined by the action of an 80-year old woman came out openly to donate her life savings worth N1million to Buhari after waiting for nine hours to meet the former head of state.

    The situation has degenerated to the extent that angry citizens of the state now heckle Governor Saidu Dakingari at rallies. To win election, most candidates of PDP for National Assembly and State House of Assembly elections have refused to identify openly with Jonathan.

    A source said: “The PDP is having it rough because of the poor performance of the governor; imposition of candidates for elective offices; mass defection to APC by grassroots politicians; and lack of unity. With all these problems, APC is in the blood of everyone in this state.”

    Verdict: An 80-20 vote spread likely in favour of APC.

    NIGER

    Despite spirited moves to deny his association with the opposition and disparage Buhari at the PDP presidential campaign rally, Governor Babangida Aliyu knows the game is up for his party in the state. Even the manner in which Aliyu was panting and making unsolicited and irrelevant remarks suggested he was facing some electoral challenges.  PDP’s fortunes further slipped down with the defection of the Deputy Governor, Musa Ibeto to APC. This is in addition to the loss of Niger East Senatorial District by-election seat to APC’s David Umar. The National Assembly Election Tribunal declared Umar as the validly elected senator instead of Nuhu Zagbayi of PDP. The refusal of the governor to handover to his deputy while going for lesser Hajj has boosted APC’s chances.

    Verdict: A 60-40 spread in favour of APC.

    KWARA

    Kwarans are still celebrating the tumultuous crowd which welcomed APC’s presidential campaign train to the state. The crowd doubled a similar one for PDP. Rather than allowing campaign to move on smoothly, the PDP has resorted to violence with the attack on some APC leaders and members including the campaign convoy of the wife of APC presidential candidate, Mrs. Aishat Buhari.

    The presidency is covertly trying to woo the gamesmaster of Kwara politics, Dr. Bukola Saraki, to its side but with its recourse to media blackmail of APC leaders, the battle line is drawn. The only survival straw of PDP now is to reach out to the church and make it to believe that the general election is a religious war. The APC is trying to discountenance the propaganda.

    Verdict: APC to win the state in a 70 to 30 vote spread.

    BAUCHI

    The war between Governor Isa Yuguda and the FCT Minister, Bala Mohammed, since the stoning of the presidential convoy in Bauchi has further polarised PDP in the state. The leaders are now working at cross-purposes in a political terrain that is not entirely under the control of PDP. At a point, the governor was accused of producing both the PDP and APC governorship candidates in a deft political move to win either way during the general election. PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, has been accused of not working hard enough for the victory of Jonathan. In fact, Mu’azu on Thursday was quick to tell party members that “…I do not see a landslide coming.” The state has always been a political stronghold of Buhari in the last 12 years.

    Verdict: APC to win by 70-30 per cent.

    SOKOTO

    Governor Aliyu Wamakko and the APC are gaining more ground in the state. Known as “Alu Sai Alu”, Wamakko strongest points are ability to relate freely with the poor at the grassroots; ability to deliver on his promises; and a performance which has overshadowed the records of his predecessors, especially ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. The internal crisis in PDP has buoyed the governor and APC’s chances of  coasting home to success. As at press time, thousands of supporters of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari had chosen to work for APC rather than the party’s governorship candidate, Ambassador Abdallah Wali.

    Verdict: APC victory in an 80-20 vote spread.

    KOGI

    A major headache of PDP in the state is the poor performance of Governor Idris Wada which has been attributed to inherited debts from the administration of ex-Governor Ibrahim Idris. The relapsing health challenge of the governor has slowed him down in gaining electoral advantage for the president. The non-payment of minimum wage to primary school teachers’ has pitched PDP against the masses. This is also creating electoral threat to the ruling party’s success. The PDP is sticking to old jokers of ethnic, cultural and religious prejudices.

    The fact that there is no governorship poll in Kogi State has made the battle very close between the PDP and APC. Also, the defection of major stakeholders in Kogi East and Kogi Central has given APC a slight edge above PDP. The stakeholders from Kogi East are Alh. Linko Ocheje (the strong man of Ankpa politics); Mallam Sani Egwu; Gen. Salifu Atawodi; Chief John Odawn (the long-serving state PDP chairman); Sen. Alex Kadiri; Sen. Yahaya Ugbane; Hon. Ikani; Hon. Gowon (IGN); Hon. Ismail Ina Hussein; Hon. Adejoh Akowe; Hon. Musa Idoko; and Hon. Aduku Ojodale.

    Those who left PDP for APC in Kogi Central are Sen. Mohammed Ohiare; Sen. Salihu Ohize; ex-Speaker Abdullahi Bello; Chief Michael Ozovehe;  Alh. Idris Ozi Shuaibu; Hon. Sule Kokori; Hon. Kabir Ajanah; and Hon. Bashir Sani Omolori. In Kogi West, some PDP chieftains who have defected to APC and other parties are  ex-Yagba West LGA chairman, Hon. Tunji Aro;  former Chairman, Yagba East, Hon. Abdulkadir Jimoh Salahudeen(a.k.a Erukutu);  former Chairman, Mopamuro LGA, Hon. Pedro Obadofin; Hon. Salifu Akawu Sule; ex-Chairman, Kotonkarfe LGA, Hon. Shaba Mohammed; and Commodore Foluso Daniels.

    Those trying to salvage PDP in Kogi State now are Sen. Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West) and the Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Mohammed Bello Adoke (SAN), who can no longer afford to remain in the background as a technocrat. The rescue mission of the Minister to Kogi Central Senatorial District for the PDP has made the game difficult for APC in the area. Adoke had offset the SSCE fees of all final year secondary school students in the five local government areas in the district. Kogi is now 50-50. A top source said: “We are not voting for Jonathan because of his failure to fulfill any of the promises made to leaders of Kogi West/ Okunland, led by the late Chief S.B. Daniyan at his pre-2011 election meeting with them at the Presidential Villa.

    “Also, several critical PDP stakeholders have refused to defect openly to other parties and have vowed to give surreptitious support to the opposition to ensure the decimation of the PDP at the polls. And very much like Mr. President, Governor Wada has not been able to come to grips with his mandate, nearly four years in office.

    Verdict: Too close to call.

    TARABA

    Despite his bombshell against some ex-militants, a former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, holds the ace for PDP victory in Taraba State. But APC and SDP are giving PDP some headache in the state. When the Acting Governor, Alhaji Abubakar Danladi, kicked off his senatorial campaign in Karim Lamido; he was greeted with chants of “Ba mu yi”. The yeoman’s job of Sen. Aishatu Alhassan (Sai Mama) has improved the prospects of APC. The religious factor is being exploited by PDP to secure its reign in the state. One thing is certain: Buhari will secure the mandatory 25 per cent of the total votes cast.

    Verdict: PDP to win

     KADUNA

    The disastrous campaign outing of the PDP presidential campaign train to the state indicated that the party is unpopular in the state. With some empty seats at the stadium and the shout of Sai Buhari,   President Jonathan and members of the PDP presidential Campaign team were rattled. Findings revealed that APC and Buhari are in control of the northern part of Kaduna like Zaria and Lere. The opposition has always controlled the Central Senatorial District too especially Birnin Gwari, Kaduna North, Kaduna South and Igabi.

    Disunity is the bane of PDP in the state with 80 per cent of supporters and loyalists of ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi defecting to APC.

    The spate of killings in Southern Kaduna, the removal of the former GMD of NNPC, and the sack of a former chairman of SURE-P, Lt. Gen. Martin Luther Agwai (rtd) might make it difficult for PDP to retain its grip on the state.

    The anger in Southern Kaduna against the PDP is much and it will be difficult for Jonathan to assuage it. To add to the burden of PDP, the choice of the APC Deputy Governorship candidate, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex has made the ruling party in the state to run helter-skelter. Bantex is loved by the people of Southern Kaduna and he is said to be a rallying point for them

    Unfortunately for the President, he is being careful in directly intervening in the party’s affairs in Kaduna State because it is the domain of his deputy. The race appears headed towards victory for APC unless Vice-President Namadi Sambo overhauls his party’s campaign machinery.

    Verdict: APC to win 60-40.

    PLATEAU

    Unknown to many Nigerians, the race is tighter in Plateau State this time around between PDP and APC because of the manner in which the PDP primaries were rigged in favour of some candidates and the demand for power shift. The people of Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition of another governorship candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North on them after eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang. Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the PDP picked its candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central.

    More PDP leaders and members have also moved over to APC forcing most political office holders from Plateau State, like the Minister of Water Resources, Mrs. Sarah Ochekpe, to relocate home to salvage the situation. Out of the 16 governorship aspirants in PDP, 13 defected to APC, two remain neutral and Pwajok is on his own. Though the defectors have succeeded in shaking PDP, the ruling party in the state has a narrow edge over APC due to the population advantage of Plateau North. Governor Jang has sustained religious and tribal politicking to checkmate the growing influence of APC in the state.

    Verdict: Battleground

     ZAMFARA

    Ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political son, Abdulaziz Yari, have continued to enjoy more grassroots support in the state. They are having an easy ride because the politics in the state has followed the same pattern since 1999. The State Publicity Secretary of APC, Sani Ahmed Gwamna, said the party has no opposition in the state. “Everybody knows that since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999, PDP has never won an election to form government in Zamfara,” he said. The aloofness of the Minister of Defence, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, to the presidential campaign has foreclosed any good outing for PDP.

    Verdict: A 70-30 vote spread in favour of APC.

    ADAMAWA

    The centre no longer holds in Adamawa PDP to the extent that President Jonathan made an emergency shuttle to the state last Saturday. He got more than he bargained for when stakeholders only promised to vote for him during the presidential poll. Overwhelmed by the challenge at hand, Jonathan paid a nocturnal visit to ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar for help. Instead, Abubakar shunned his invitation to return to PDP.

    The party is locked in a cold war following the failure of its recent reconciliation over the choice of ex-EFCC chairman, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the party’s governorship candidate. Ribadu’s olive branch is yet to be accepted by stakeholders who are embittered about the conduct of the party’s primaries in Abuja.  The PDP’s headache is how to heal all wounds and defeat the PDM candidate, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo and the APC candidate, Sen. Jibrilla Bindo. It is certainly an open race in Adamawa where Buhari’s wife hails from. Adamawa is 50-50 for the presidential election.

    Verdict: Battleground

     BENUE

    More than any period in his political career, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State is fighting for his own survival such that he finds it difficult to take the party’s governorship candidate, Terhemen Tarzor along. Suswam is in a cul-de-sac because of inability to pay workers minimum wage; owing of workers six months’ salaries; prolonged strikes in the state which led to closure of schools for eight months and a sharp drop in popularity rating.

    The defection of ex-Minister Samuel Ortom and Chief Barnabas Gemade to APC is still haunting the PDP. This development has forced Suswam to embark on aggressive dusk- to- dawn campaign. With a high prospect of winning two out of the three senatorial districts in the state, APC is giving PDP sleepless nights. The game remains 50-50 in the state because of ethnic and religious factors which Suswam may latch on. Otherwise in a free and fair atmosphere, it is APC’s.

    Verdict: Battleground

    GOMBE

    Notwithstanding the denial of security threats in Gombe State by Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo at the National Council of State meeting, the state is prone to political violence because the ruling PDP is feeling the competitive heat of the opposition. The formidable structure of ex-Governor Danjuma Goje, which produced the governor in 2011, is formidable to the extent that attempts were made to set Goje up on phantom security offences. The situation now is such that APC and PDP are in a 50-50 rating.

    Verdict: Battleground

    BORNO

    Despite insurgency, the  massive turn-out at APC presidential campaign rally in Maiduguri has destabilized PDP and Jonathan camp. The PDP’s woes in the state worsened on Wednesday when a Federal High Court in Abuja  declared Gambo Lawan as the authentic governorship  flag-bearer of the party in Borno State. Justice Ahmed Mohammed ordered the PDP to substitute the name of Alhaji Mohammed Imam with Lawan. The judgment was a setback for ex-Governor Modu Ali Sheriff whose candidate Imam was. A party source said: “We are in disarray; we were devastated by the judgment. Supporters of Imam will rather work for APC than Lawan.”

    Though the state is still one of those classified as facing security threats at the last Council of State meeting, it remains APC territory. The campaign so far has revealed that the PDP is depending on federal might to capitalize on the insurgency in the state to manipulate the electoral process. The APC relies on the integrity and achievements of Governor Kashim Shettima, despite all odds, to retain the control of the state.

    Verdict: APC to win by an 80-20 per cent vote spread.

     YOBE

    With two out of the three senatorial districts in its kitty, Yobe remains firmly hooked to APC because the state had pitched tent with the opposition since 1999. Ex-Governor Bukar Ibrahim, the political godfather of the state, has been the pivot. With the achievements of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam, retaining the state is easier for APC. The PDP, which initially had challenges over the choice of its governorship candidate, Adamu Maina Waziri, is coming up stronger but is unlikely to displace APC. The decision of Major Hamzat Al-Mustapha, a former CSO to the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha, to lie low has diminished the electoral fortunes of PDP in the state. The permutations that Al-Mustapha will be an electoral asset have failed for PDP.

    Verdict: A 70-30 scenario in favour of APC is likely here.

    JIGAWA

    In spite of the ranting of Governor Sule Lamido against APC leaders, the opposition will win the presidential poll in the state. One of the reasons Lamido is begrudging Buhari is the fact that the latter controls large following in Jigawa State. Even under ANPP and CPC platforms, Buhari had always won Jigawa hands down in 2003, 2007 and 2011. Since January, the governor’s comments have given advantage more to Buhari than Jonathan. In January, Lamido told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) that “I agreed like every other person that Buhari is an incorruptible, honest, clean and patriotic Nigerian. My concern has always been defectors who our party, PDP, had made ministers, governors, speakers and members of the National Assembly and left us after benefiting so much.” For the presidential race, Buhari is the man to beat in Jigawa. But the governor will cling to any straw to retain the state for PDP in other strands of election.

    Verdict: A 70-30 vote spread in favour of APC.

    KATSINA

    This remains an APC enclave because it is the home of Buhari.  During the week, many PDP members tucked their membership cards into big bags and burnt them. The elite forces are also overwhelmingly against PDP.  These are prominent Katsina sons seeking power shift, APC strong leaders, those who defected from PDP to APC, and the loyalists of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua working for Buhari. Though the PDP is trying to survive, the people of the state will vote for APC because they want the presidency which they lost in 2010, due to the death of ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua, to return to the state. The removal of the Acting Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service(FIRS), Mallam Kabir Mashi, at the prompting of some PDP stalwarts, is a minus for Jonathan in the state because it will lead to protest votes against PDP in some parts of the state.

    Verdict: APC likely to win the state in a 70-30 format.

    KANO

    This is still a tough terrain for Jonathan and the PDP. For almost a week, Vice President Namadi Sambo was in Kano to woo opinion leaders and voters. He got more than he bargained for during an interactive session with academic staff who gave the Jonathan administration a low mark.

    The Kwankwassiya political dynasty has successfully managed its succession plan which has given APC an advantage to consolidate. The commissioning of some projects in Kano State in recent weeks has added more pep to the score sheet of Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. The fresh call by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the NNPC account for the controversial $20billion oil funds might seal the fate of PDP in the state. But the Minister of Education, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau is trying his best to salvage the PDP although he can only hope to secure the required 25 per cent of the total votes cast for the President.

    Verdict: An 80-20 per cent victory for APC.

    NASARAWA

    The combined forces of Governor Tanko Al-Makura and a former Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu have upstaged  the PDP and APGA in the state. Though the APGA governorship candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku is whipping up religious sentiments, the outcome of the marathon campaign tours of APC has shown that Al-Makura remains the candidate to beat. His selling point is what a source described as his “humility.” If there was any hope left for Maku, it was shattered by the Director-General of PDP Campaign Organization, Dr. Ahmadu Ali, who described the former Minister as an ingrate. The exit of Maku from PDP has altered the game strongly in favour for APC. Up till now, the PDP campaign in the state has no bite as if the party has resigned to fate.

    Verdict: APC to win

    FCT

    The PDP is leading because it controls the government machinery in the six area councils and it has the biggest war chest for campaign in the territory. The subtle wooing and recognition of traditional rulers has also made the party to penetrate the grassroots. The Vice Presidential Candidate of APC, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo went on campaign tour of the six councils about a week ago but the area is still leaning towards the ruling party.

    Verdict: It is still 60-40 in favour of PDP.

    ABIA

    In Abia State, President Jonathan and PDP are very hopeful of recording a landslide victory. This is because of his unshaken relationship with Governor Theodore Orji, who controls the party machinery. Aside the hope of utilising Orji’s incumbency factor, First Lady Patience Jonathan’s mother hails from the state and this has been used to mobilize support for Jonathan. Also, the PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics over the years mainly because of Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he has succeeded in rendering opposition parties redundant in the state.

    Even now that some of opposition parties are gathering steam, most of them like All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PPA are campaigning for Jonathan.

    Our investigation confirms that while governorship and other legislative elections would be a close contest between the ruling PDP and the opposition, Jonathan is likely to win the presidential election here but not with 98 percent as was the case in 2011. In fact, most respondents are optimistic that APC’s candidate, Buhari may get 25 percent votes here unlike 0.31 percent he got in 2011.

    Verdict: PDP to win.

    ANAMBRA

    Anambra State is an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)-led state but for the presidency, the state has consistently voted for PDP. In 2011, Jonathan, the PDP flagbearer got 98.96 percent of all the votes cast at the presidential contest.

    If not for recent political developments, one would have predicted the same trend, since APGA, as it did in 2011, has no presidential candidate but has pledged to queue behind Jonathan. But unlike what happened in 2011, APC’s Buhari will get reasonable votes from the state.

    As Ekwueme, a political father in Anambra State, pointed out, all is no longer at ease with PDP. The elder statesman said “Anambra and Igbo vote can no longer be taken for granted. This is even so as Senator Chris Ngige-led state APC has taken the state by storm thereby popularizing the opposition party there.  There is no doubt that APC is very popular in Anambra State and so Buhari seems poised to take advantage of it. Buhari’s major setback in this state and most of the other South-East states is PDP’s continuous campaign that the former Head of State hates Ndigbo and singled out Igbo leaders like Ekwueme, Sam Mbakwe and Jim Nwobodo for imprisonment.

    Verdict: Jonathan

    EBONYI

    Ebonyi State is a traditional PDP state which gave Jonathan 95.57 percent of its votes in 2011. However, some observers say it has become a major battle ground in this election.

    The ripple effects from the crisis in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi is poised to change the state’s political game.

    It seems the only things that may guarantee Jonathan success here are Senator Pius Anyim Pius’ determination to market Jonathan’s ability to retain Elechi’s support for the presidency.

    Left to the supporters of the embattled governor, who have already moved over to Labour Party, both Jonathan and his party would have been humbled in this state. Many of them would have gladly released protest votes in favour of Buhari. This would have been most feasible because of the increasing strength of the rival APC in the state, where Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu’s influence has come to play.

    Verdict: Jonathan

    ENUGU

    Following alleged reconciliation of the Senator Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, Jonathan’s supporters are optimistic he will easily win in the state, where he got 98.54 percent votes against Buhari’s 0.36 percent in 2011.

    While it may not be out of place for PDP to be optimistic in Enugu, insiders in the state’s politics said many interests have been hurt in the pre-election politicking. This includes but not limited to the bitterness of the Senator Ayogu Eze’s camp of the PDP.

    Added to this is the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC, which is poised to serve as a boost to Buhari’s political fortunes in the state. With its Catholic dominated population, there is also the fear in the PDP camp that Father Mbaka’s recent sermon may sway precious votes to Buhari’s box.

    Verdict: Jonathan

    IMO

    Currently, Imo State is an APC state where Governor Rochas Okorocha’s influence is a major boost for General Buhari.

    But The Nation learnt that the PDP’s campaign has been tailored to diminish Buhari’s influence as he was lavishly described as an Igbo hater, who singled out Igbo leaders like Chief Sam Onunaka Mbakwe, for jail. The former governor of old Imo State is so adored in the state that this singular campaign may swing the presidency to Jonathan in the state.

    So, while APC seems certain to win the governorship election, the presidency may be too close to call or slightly in favour of Jonathan.

    Verdict: Too close to call

    AKWA IBOM

    As far as Governor Godswill Akpabio is concerned, President Jonathan can go to bed regarding the state. He has good reasons to be that optimistic. The state organised the most boisterous campaign event when the President’s team came calling. Almost everyone in Akwa Ibom attended the campaign.

    The state has also been a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), winning every electoral office since 1999. Having been elevated contentiously to becoming the highest earning state from the federal allocation, Akwa Ibom indigenes will consider voting for Jonathan a favour returned.

    But it would be too simplistic to dismiss Buhari’s chances just yet. The APC has been making serious incursions in Akwa Ibom since Obong Umana Umana emerged its governorship candidate. His Uyo senatorial district has the highest voting population in the state and should be angling for their own.

    Observers however said the APC might not make much impact at the presidential elections, saying most Akwa Ibom voters will consider the ethnic and religious factors in the choice. Based on these and with an incumbent governor armed with heavy war chests, Jonathan is expected to carry the state easily. But Buhari may be in contention to win at least 25% owing to the Umana’s factor. The defection yesterday of former governor Victor Attah to APC could also be significant.

    Verdict: Jonathan

    CROSS RIVER

    The state should be an easy pie for Jonathan. He is considered a son of the soil and a friend of the state. The proximity of his native Bayelsa state will be an added incentive for voters to pick him in the state.

    The PDP has been dominant at all levels in the state since the return of democratic rule. An implosion during the party’s governorship primary that produced Senator Ben Ayade has been well-managed to the amazement of the opposition.

    Jonathan, seen as a fellow Christian and South-South brother, will certainly garner massive votes in the state. It is hard to tell how much weight the APC can pull to win votes for Buhari, a Muslim northern. It is even harder to contemplate him winning as much as 25% in the state. Given the ongoing scenario, Jonathan will carry the state without much ado

    Verdict: Jonathan wins

    RIVERS 

    If there is a state that can define this presidential election, it would be no other than Rivers. The two leading candidates have gladiators here, sparing no effort or design to make them win. On the side of APC is Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is Director General of the Muhammadu Buhari’s campaign.

    Amaechi, a dogged fighter, is a political veteran. He knows Rivers politics like the palms of his hands. He’s a two-time governor and an ex-Speaker. It has taken nothing more than sheer willpower and doggedness to fight a President and then defect to the opposition party without as much as scratch. For every weapon fired at him, Amaechi returns the salvo with ten deadlier canisters.

    The APC has gained much ground since the governor made it his new abode. The governorship candidate, Dakuku Peterside, has a followership capable of intimidating even the bravest opposition.

    The party’s chapter has been giving the PDP a run for its money, insisting that Jonathan cannot win the state. APC’s chairman in Rivers, Davies Ikanya, said Jonathan had committed 25 grievous sins for which the state will never vote for him.

    The sins, according to him, include neglect, stalling of some projects envisaged to develop the state, lack of implementation of some projects, violence and corruption among others.

    The party has been mobilising against Jonathan and pushing Buhari’s candidature with remarkable results, going by attendance at rallies and campaigns.

    But the PDP is no pushover yet in Rivers. Not when its governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, is still around. Wike has fought Amaechi to a standstill, using federal might and presidential connections. He also attracts crowds.

    Besides, First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, is also from the state. She has been mobilising for her husband among her people. But many are not happy with her role in the standoff in the state. There may protest with votes against Jonathan at the poll.

    Being a cosmopolitan state with an incumbent governor rooting for Buhari, the APC presidential candidate may carry the state. Jonathan, on his own, will also make serious impact among voters based on ethnic and religious considerations as well as the influence of his wife.

    Verdict: Battleground

    EDO

    That the 2011 presidential election in Edo State was a stroll in the park for President Jonathan is stating the obvious. The president garnered 542, 173 votes as against 17, 795 votes for Buhari.

    The president’s victory in 2011 was largely due to the ‘home boy’ factor, coupled with the maximum support offered him by the state governor, Adams Oshiomhole, who mobilised the people in support of Jonathan.

    But next Saturday’s election in the state is likely to be a different ball game, as the governor has turned his back against the President. In the last couple of weeks, he has embarked on a vigorous campaign for the APC presidential candidate and other candidates of the party across the nooks and crannies of the state.

    While the Edo governor has intensified campaign for Buhari, no one seems to be doing same for the President, as the acclaimed leader of Edo PDP, Chief Anthony Anenih, appears to be spending more time in Abuja thus delegating the task of campaigning for the president to less influential party chieftains.

    During his campaign stumps across the state, the governor’s campaign message that the PDP-led federal government has neglected the state in terms of infrastructural projects has resonated well with the people, many of whom have keyed into the change mantra being propagated by the APC.

    The influence of traditional institutions – especially the respected Oba of Benin is also a factor to watch. Sources say a crisis of confidence has broken out among prominent Benin chiefs over who to endorse between the two major candidates.

    With just seven days to the election, what has become apparent is that Edo election would be a close call between Buhari and Jonathan who may still be counting on South-South solidarity to prevail.

    Verdict: Too close to call

    DELTA

    In spite of recording a landslide victory in 2011, President Jonathan and the PDP are not taking anything for granted.

    And this is understandable. The ruling party is facing some tough challenges ranging from gradual resurgence of the APC in addition to inter-ethnic suspicion and rivalry in the state.

    Indeed, if there is one factor that could impact negatively on the President’s electoral chances in the state, it is the alleged disenchantment of some ethnic groups including Itsekiri and the Urhobos against the Ijaws, the President’s ethnic group.

    For the Itsekiris, their grouses are legion. First, is the controversy over the site of the $16 billion Delta Gas City project at Ogidigben in Warri South local government area with the Ijaws claiming ownership of the land said to belong to the Itsekiri.

    The groundbreaking of the project suffered several postponements until a few weeks ago when the President visited Warri and reportedly appeased the Itsekiri with his commitment to the commencement of the project.

    But not a few however believe that the President’s fence mending was borne not out of genuine love for the Itsekiri, but to win their votes in the presidential election.

    There are also others who are not happy with how the state governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, was “shabbily treated” by the PDP in the run-up to the party’s senatorial and governorship primaries early this year.

    The governor’s desire to have his preferred candidate emerge as the governorship candidate not only failed, he was also compelled to step down for an Ijaw man, Senator James Manager, who is running for another term to represent Delta South in the National Assembly.

    Among the Urhobos too, there is a sharp division within the influential Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), the umbrella body of all Urhobos. Some of its leading lights are reportedly drumming support for Jonathan, while others have allegedly pitched their tent with Buhari.

    As the largest ethnic group in Delta State, the Urhobos have the numbers to determine where the pendulum of victory would swing in the election.

    Verdict: Slim victory for Jonathan

    BAYELSA

    Four years ago, the opposition was practically non-existent in Bayelsa, the home state of the President. The result of the 2011 presidential election proved

    But the situation is different today, thanks to the defection of notable politicians to the APC, including the immediate former governor of the state, Timipre Sylvia, a former senator, Fred Oboro, former Security Adviser to Sylva, Chief Richard Kpodo, former Youth Leader of PDP in the South-South, Mr. Godwin Sidi and a former Chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government, Timipa Orunemigha.

    Since his parting ways with the President and PDP, Sylvia has slowly but steadily positioned the APC as a viable opposition, a development the Presidency is not comfortable with.

    Sources say the former governor, who is also contesting for the Senate on March 28 against media entrepreneur, Ben Bruce, is determined to prove a point that he remains a factor in Bayelsa politics.

    But more worrisome for the President’s camp, is the threat by some loyalists of the incumbent governor, Seriake Dickson, not to vote for the President over what they perceive as the overbearing influence of his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan, who has been at loggerheads with the governor.

    The homeboy factor in spite of the incursion of the APC, analysts argue, would come handy for the President when the chips are down.

    Verdict: Safe bet for Jonathan

    OSUN

    In Osun, which is firmly under the control of the APC, Jonathan will not have a good showing on election day. All through the electioneering campaign, the President found it difficult to get listening ears.  His visits to the state have receive no appreciable attention from the people considering the mammoth crowd that thronged the Osogbo City Sports Stadium to receive Buhari and his team twice when he visited the state in continuation of his presidential campaign.

    This will be no surprise in Osun where, in spite of his good showing in the region in 2011, the President still lost to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate by a wide margin. With Governor Rauf Aregbesola still in charge and the PDP declining in status by the day, Buhari is positioned to win massively in the state.

    Aregbesola’s convincing victory during last year’s governorship election and the rancour that saw PDP losing two former governors of the state, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola and former Speaker Olubunmi Etteh, to the APC in quick succession will also work against Jonathan.

    Verdict: APC 80%; PDP 20%

    EKITI

    Given current permutations in Governor Ayodele Fayose’s state after the six weeks shift in election date, President Jonathan may run away with a slight victory over Buhari. During the June 21, 2014 governorship election held in Ekiti State, the APC failed to retain the state. The surprise emergence of Fayose as governor is no doubt a boost for Jonathan and the PDP in the presidential election. If the preference of Fayose, an unrepentant Jonathan supporter is to count, then PDP will carry the day.

    Of course, the APC is not likely to go down without a good fight in the state given the fact that it is in the majority in the House of Assembly as well as National Assembly members in the state. The fact that it was in charge of the state for four years barely months back, is also an advantage for Buhari. In addition, the reconciliation of Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, gubernatorial candidate of the LP at the last election with the APC leadership will give PDP more troubles.

    But Fayose has shown that he’s willing to do all that in necessary to prevail. This may override all other factors and give the day to Jonathan in the state.

    Verdict: APC 40%; PDP 60%

    ONDO

    Few weeks back, the political drama that saw the massive decamping of major political actors from one political party to the other, which started in 2014 and continued into the new year, gave the impression that it may be too close to decide who wins in Ondo State. However, the unresolved intra party crisis that bedeviled the ruling PDP in the state following the entrance of Governor Olusegun Mimiko into the party may have given the APC a serious edge in the contest for presidential votes.

    In quick succession, the Mimiko camp lost the likes of Hon. Gani Daodu representing Akoko North West and East Federal Constituency at the National Assembly, Hon. Gbenga Edema representing Ilaje Constituency II and Hon. Folasade Olasehinde representing Ose Constituency to the APC. More defections were to follow as Mimiko battled old members of his new party for control of party structure.

    Although the coming of Mimko into Jonathan’s party initially boosted the chances of the president in the state considering the fact that Ondo was before now a Labour Party (LP) controlled state, his unending face-off with leaders of the party made nonsense of the political gains of his defection.

    This argument is premised on the calculation that it was a united PDP, adequately supported by the then ruling Labour Party that gave Jonathan 85.66% of the total votes counted in the state in 2011. With the now ruling PDP torn to shreds and the LP no longer in Mimiko’s kitty, coupled with a fast growing opposition APC in the same state, pundits say Jonathan may not be able to win the oil rich state on March 28.

    Jonathan and Buhari will fight hard for votes in Ondo State. Given that Ondo is now a PDP state following Mimiko’s defection and its proximity to the President’s native Bayelsa State as well as the large presence of Ijaw speaking communities in the oil producing area of the state, he will have a good showing in the southern part of the state.

    But with Buhari running on the platform of the APC this time and the general feeling of marginalisation among the Yorubas, his performance in the mainland and other parts of the state will receive a serious boost from what it was in 2011. The situation in Ondo is such that Buhari may just enjoy a very slight victory over Jonathan in a close race.

    Verdict: Narrow victory for Buhari and APC

    LAGOS

    Although President Jonathan in recent weeks made tremendous effort at swaying the electorate in Lagos in his favor, not much was achieved by his political maneuvers. If anything, the President and his team gave the people of the state ample opportunities to critically examine why they should vote for any of the two leading candidates.

    Before now, Lagosians were disappointed that the President merely coming to Lagos when he launched his campaign, to attack personalities and not to discuss issues. The people, it appeared would have loved the President to tell the people about his achievement in office and how he intends to improve on the achievements.

    Not even the recent attempt by the PDP to discredit APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appeared to have succeeded as polls continue to give the state to Buhari and his party. The near non-existing influence of Afenifere chieftains in the state is also a factor that made nonsense of the President’s effort to play the ethnic card in the state.

    Thus, contrary to the posturing of people like Bode George, the most popular position is that Buhari will outshine Jonathan at the polls in Lagos State. APC’s control of political structures in the state is massive – from state to local council levels. This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out the votes on polling day.

    PDP’s attempt to play the ethnic card appealing to certain non-indigenous ethnic groups has been neutralized by APC getting its governors and leaders like Kwankwaso, Na’Abba and Buhari to speak directly with other ethnic groups whose numbers are equally large in the state.

    Another terrible miscalculation was the pro-Jonathan rally held in Lagos by the Gani Adams-led Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) and other supporters of the president. The event turned into an orgy of violence with motorists being harassed by gun-totting OPC members and billboards of APC members being vandalized. Public reactions to the outing have been decidedly negative for Jonathan and PDP.

    By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises that have rocked the PDP in the state for years, Buhari is in pole position to prevail on March 28.

    Verdict: APC 75%; PDP 25%

    OGUN

    An array of PDP chieftains, including controversial Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo and Doyin Okupe, amongst others, are working round the clock to deliver the votes in the state to Jonathan. They are no doubt determined to beat the APC to second place.

    But matching the popularity of the ruling party and the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun is a huge task for Jonathan’s men. Consequently, Buhari’s visit to Abeokuta few days back was a huge success that saw the people of the Gateway State trooping out to see him.

    An earlier visit by Jonathan also saw a mammoth crowd but the frenzy that greeted the APC rally gave indication of where the votes may go. Amosun’s track record of achievements, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges will be an added advantage for his party.

    Also, the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders may work against Jonathan in the state unless something urgent is done.

    The indisputable political place of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo and his unhidden opposition to Jonathan’s aspiration, which peaked with his card-tearing exit from the party few weeks back,  will also work in favor of Buhari and his party.

    Verdict: APC to win with 70% to 30% vote spread

    OYO

    In Oyo state, the tattered state of Jonathan’s party may aid Buhari’s victory. APC also controls the state government. Pundits also say that aside, Oyo is a core Yoruba state where the feeling of marginalisation is deep-rooted.

    Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are of the opinion that the people will vote for the Presdient, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala remains an issue. Although it is believed that Ladoja and Alao-Akala are working for Jonathan’s candidacy unofficially.

    With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, Jonathan may find it difficult getting votes in Oyo.

    Verdict: APC 80% – PDP 20%

    CONCLUSION: General Buhari is projected to prevail in the North West, North East, North Central and South West, while President Jonathan would win in the South-South and South East.

     

  • Women mobilise for Buhari

    A vote for the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, next Saturday will guarantee a better future with stronger economy and security.

    This was the consensus last week during a town hall meeting by Pro-climate Federation for Buhari/Osinbajo Presidency 2015 in Surulere, Lagos.

    The founder of Women’s Pro-Climate Federation, Mrs. Ekaette Sanusi, said Buhari will restore the nation’s stolen glory and resources.

    She urged women to consider the election as a choice “that will determine how well or otherwise our children live in the future.”

    Sanusi, who lamented the parlous state of affairs in the nation, called on Nigerians, especially women to support the APC’s presidential candidate, assuring that he would make life better for them.

    According to her: “If it is about integrity, probity, transparency, job security and quality education, then Buhari is our man. He is the one that will take us to the Promised Land.

    “He will provide healthcare and security that will make us all proud and able to fend for bread.”

    She vowed to mobilise women and embark on door-to-door campaign to ensure the victory of Buhari at the poll.

    Speakers after speakers urged the women not to trade off their votes but ensure they acquire a better bargain for their offspring at the poll.

  • APC supporters march for Buhari in Enugu

    APC supporters march for Buhari in Enugu

    Members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) yesterday marched in Enugu streets to drum up support for the party’s presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari.

    The supporters came in their thousands, singing pro-Buhari songs.

    Spokesman for the APC in the Southeast Mr. Osita Okechukwu said the indigenes and other Southeast people had confidence in Gen. Buhari.

    Okechukwu, who is also a member of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, said: “Gen. Buhari has pledged to revamp Enugu coal, utilise the coal to generate electricity and create one million jobs in four years.

    “He stands by the pledge he made on January 10 at the Enugu State rally of our great party. His word is his bond.

    “Gen. Buhari is passionate to create jobs for our youths and feels that the best way to create jobs in this region is to revamp the Enugu coal, which has been abandoned since the Civil War.

    “His visit to Taichung Coal-Fired-Power-Plant in Taiwan, the largest in the world, motivated his interest to revamp the Enugu coal.”

    He added that besides the coal project, “Gen. Buhari believes that no matter how vast our resources, if they are not efficiently utilised, they will only benefit a privileged few, leaving the majority in poverty. This, he wants to avoid by all lawful means and this is why he has repeatedly said that ‘if Nigeria does not kill corruption, corruption will kill Nigeria’.

    “To achieve this, he will publicly declare his assets and liabilities and encourage his political appointees to follow suit immediately he is sworn-in.

    “Secondly, he will work with the National Assembly to cut down the cost of governance; because he feels the amount expended on running the Presidency, the National Assembly and the state Assemblies cannot be reasonably justified with the poverty on ground.

    “Thirdly, he will inaugurate the National Council on Procurement as stipulated in the Procurement Act, so that the Federal Executive Council, which has been turned to a weekly session of contract bazaar, will concentrate on its core mandate of policy-making.

    “My dear compatriots, General Buhari served our dear country meritoriously in the military to the highest level, as a major- general and as a commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. He crushed the Maitasine insurgents, a violent rabid sect as the Boko Haram and chased away the Chadian Army.

    “He will do so again, if you vote for him as the president and commander-in- chief; and not the current President, who just woke up from slumber after the elections were postponed.

    “In sum, Gen. Buhari subscribes to the fine tenets of social justice, the rule of law and the welfare of the greatest number of our citizenry. This is the celestial bond he has with the masses and the middle-class.”

  • APC lambasts Fayose for attack on Buhari

    APC lambasts Fayose for attack on Buhari

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ekiti State has said Governor Ayo Fayose lacks the moral rectitude to query the right of its presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, to occupy the nation’s highest office.

    The party, in its reaction to Fayose’s description of Buhari as a liar, said the governor’s action gave him away as an “unconscionable character who ought to hide his head in shame for activities that marked him as a dishonest fellow”.

    The APC Publicity Secretary, Taiwo Olatubosun, in a statement yesterday described Fayose as “the most integrity-challenged governor in Nigeria”, saying the Ekiti chief executive is not competent to impugn on Buhari’s integrity and character.

    Olatubosun said Fayose’s first stint as governor witnessed incidences of violence, attacks and murder attempts on the lives of many Ekiti citizens and cases of fraud that are still in the courts.

    He said the governor’s “second coming” has been marred by attacks on  courts, judges, lawyers, judiciary staff, emasculation of the legislative arm and acts of impunity.

    Olatubosun said: “Lying is a question of integrity. A liar does not have integrity. Lying leads to deceit, stealing, conspiracy, murder and other vices.

    “Buhari has never and would never be associated with any of these vices, same cannot be said of Fayose.

    “His latest lie is the denial of his involvement in the  Ekitigate scandal.

    “Fayose ‘led’ thugs to attack the judges and tear court records in the chief judge’s office last year.

    “On May 29, 2005, he  led thugs to attack the Alliance for Democracy (AD) rally at Mugbagba in Ado-Ekiti.

    “Chiefs Ojo Falegan and Segun Oni nearly died of teargas fumes after they were beaten by government agents.

    “Taiye Fasuba, the Chairman of Ado-Local Government, was illegally removed after he refused to surrender council funds for a fraudulent poultry project.

    “The late Atta of Ayede-Ekiti, Oba Adeleye Orisagbemi, was arrested for his  alleged refusal to support Fayose.

    “The Elekole of Ikole-Ekiti, Oba Adetunla Adeleye, was forcefully dragged out of his car for his alleged refusal to support the governor.”

    Olatubosun said only an “integrity-challenged” man could have all these “vices” around his neck and still seek leadership position or criticise leaders with impeccable records.

    He advised Fayose to start thinking of how to plan a life after paying for his alleged crimes, noting that Buhari’s presidency was a reality that could not be stopped by Fayose’s tantrums.

  • Why Buhari remains best alternative, by ex-Abia governor Onu

    Why Buhari remains best alternative, by ex-Abia governor Onu

    Abia State’s ex-Governor Ogbonnaya Onu told Nigerians yesterday why the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) is the best to rescue the nation.

    Dr. Onu, who speaking in an interview in Abuja, described the APC standard flag bearer at the rescheduled March 28 as a man of honesty and sincerity with the prerequisite knowledge on how to get Nigeria out of the woods.

    According to him, Gen. Buhari, with great antecedents and good virtues that speak volumes, has capacity to fight corruption, adding that his commitment to the war against corruption would trickle down to reducing violence and insecurity.

    He said the APC was established to create competition in politics and to achieve good governance,.

    “We felt we needed the competition in the political arena and we believe things have not been going on in the right way. The level of insecurity has never been as bad as it is now in the country as well as unemployment, corruption and poor infrastructure,” he said.

    Onu also disclosed that the plan was for the APC to offer a better alternative to the people.

    “If Nigerians have not enjoyed 16 years of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led administration, the people now have a better alternative where they can exercise their franchise,” Onu explained.

    Restating the party’s commitment to provide good governance, the former Abia governor said the APC will return the country to its rightful position in the comity of nations.

    He urged Nigerians to give the party that opportunity to govern them in other to witness genuine change.

    His words: “We’ll ensure the level of corruption is brought down and we w’ll draw a line. The reason it is important to reduce corruption in the country is that if we do not do that, we will not have enough resources to work on infrastructures, schools, create jobs and we are committed to ensure that those who cannot help themselves are taken care of.”

    Speaking on how the party’s objectives will be organised,  Onu stated that all the presidential aspirants signed an undertaking to ensure that whoever emerged at the polls will be supported to implement manifestoes of the party.

    He lauded the military for recapturing some of the local government areas hitherto held captive in the Northeast by Boko Haram insurgents.

    Onu however berated the Federal Government for waking up to its responsibility rather too late, pointing out that lives and properties would have been saved if such steps had been taken at the appropriate time.

    ”With what has happened, I feel very bad that we had to allow so much sufferings, a lot of sufferings and unimaginable sufferings. It is really sad what they have been allowed to go through,” Onu added.

     

  • Scandinavia APC mobilises for Buhari

    Scandinavia APC mobilises for Buhari

    The Co-ordinator of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Scandinavia, Europe, Lawal Ayoola, has described its party’s presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, as the best man to make Nigeria a better place for all.

    Ayoola said in a statement in Lagos that Buhari is the best candidate  desired by Nigerians, because he is a man of integrity that can be trusted to deliver on his promises.

    He said other Nigerians in the Nordic countries of Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Iceland, left their businesses to join the bandwagon for change because of the credentials of the standard bearer.

    On the effects of the postponed elections, Ayoola said that it sent a wrong signal to the international community. “The postponement is a very dangerous step for our democracy because it sent a wrong signal to Nigerians in Diaspora and the international community general,” he added.

    The coordinator said Nigerians in Diaspora are not comfortable with the attitude of the present administration and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) because “they tend to do things for personal interest without considering the ripple effects in a larger perspective.”

    He added: “I think they are very myopic in their thinking and this is one of the reasons why Nigerians should say no to this present administration”

    According to the APC coordinator: ”The general perspective in the Scandinavia is that if anything goes wrong in Nigeria, it may affect almost the whole world. This is a general view of the superpowers since Nigeria is the most populous black nation in the world.

    “When things are normal in your country, many foreign countries will be willing to trade with you, but otherwise, like it is now, expatriates will keep moving to other countries with stable economic outlook.”

    The Interim Secretary, APC Scandinavia, Finland Chapter, Balogun Kamorudeen, said that political interference with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is totally unacceptable.

    He said: “It runs contrary to the principle of making INEC an independent electoral umpire, which had in a seven-hours meeting with the Presidency and the National Council of State assured on its readiness for the February 14 and 28 general elections.

    “In actual fact, the INEC chairman stated in a press conference that they have made provisions for displaced electorates in the Northeast to exercise their civic duties, towards electing their candidate of choice.”

    Kamorudeen also said that many Nigerians, civil society groups, human right activists, as well as the U.S. Department of State frowned at this unfortunate coup-like postponement, stressing that countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria and Iraq conducted general election despite facing more violence than Nigeria.

    Lamenting the insecurity and the alarming rate of corrupt practices among public office holders, Ayoola said: “We live in the paradise on earth, but we are always sad when we remember our country.

     

  • Chatham House: Buhari’s performance proves APC readiness to rescue Nigeria

    Chatham House: Buhari’s performance proves APC readiness to rescue Nigeria

    Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola, has hailed the performance of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari at the lecture delivered at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), which, he noted, has further reinforced the readiness of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to rescue Nigeria from its current state.

    He said Buhari’s articulate presentation of the development agenda of the APC has shown that the party is prepared for the rescue mission to salvage Nigeria from underdevelopment.

    In a statement by his Director, Bureau of Communication and Strategy, Mr. Semiu Okanlawon, the governor said Buhari’s presentations on the scourge of corruption and terrorism aptly captures the slogan of change being propagated by the APC.

    He said, “Nigeria has on her laps at the moment the tragedy of a party that has no idea of how to take the country out of the woods; a party and its government at a loss on how to confront the horror of terrorism, which is unfortunately fuelled by the poverty its anti-people policies have also bred and the endemic corruption which has been elevated to the level of state policy.

    “There is no doubt that the Jonathan administration is too fickle-minded to surmount the many areas of urgent needs which our people are craving for. This is why the clamour for change has attained this all-time high in the history of our country.”

    Congratulating Buhari and the party for a robust presentation, Aregbesola said after the Chatham House talk, even Buhari’s worst critics must have come to terms and embraced the positive change ideas that he and the APC represent.

    “Nigerians and the international community by now understand the determination of Buhari, the fecundity of his ideas and the clarity of his vision to take Nigeria out of the present morass,” he added.