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  • IMF forecasts ‘quickened’ growth for Nigeria

    IMF forecasts ‘quickened’ growth for Nigeria

    …‘Sub-Saharan Africa faces risk of capital outflows’

    The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it expected growth in Nigeria – Africa’s biggest economy to quicken as oil production picked up after recent supply disruptions.

    It stated that South Africa, now ranked second largest and which suffered anemic private sector investments in 2013 and mining strikes which persist, will post modest growth this year as demand picks up in its main advanced economy trading partners.

    The IMF said these in its latest Regional Economic Outlook released on Thursday.

    It affirmed that inflation will remain contained in most countries.

    Africa, the world’s poorest continent, needed to ensure growth was more inclusive, the IMF said, citing Mozambique where although the economy has expanded at the same pace as Vietnam, but poverty has declined far more slowly.

    Inflation in the region will accelerate to an estimated 6.2 percent in 2014 from 5.9 percent last year, before easing slightly in 2015, though currency depreciations may lead to renewed upward price pressures, the body said.

    It noted that investment in infrastructure and natural resources will continue to underpin economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa, although capital outflows sparked by tighter global financial conditions pose a risk to growth.

    “The main downside risk to this generally positive baseline scenario is the risk that growth in emerging markets might slow much more abruptly than currently envisaged,” the IMF said in the report.

    “As advanced economies tighten their monetary policies, frontier market economies will also face higher funding costs and a heightened risk of reversal of capital flows,” it stated.

    The IMF forecasts economic growth of 5.5 percent for sub-Saharan Africa this year, up from 4.9 percent last year.

    That is slightly more optimistic than the World Bank, which projects sub-Saharan Africa’s output will grow 5.2 percent this year, partly driven by rising household spending, Reuters says.

     

  • IMF predicts modest increase in interest rates

    IMF predicts modest increase in interest rates

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday published the global forecasts from its World Economic Outlook with an inkling that interest rates may rise moderately in future.

    A new study by the IMF’s Research Department indicated that real interest rates are expected to increase modestly with the normalisation of global economic conditions, reversing the decline into negative numbers after the financial crisis.

    According to the report, continued low real interest rates—the rate paid by borrowers minus the expected rate of inflation—will ease the burden of debt for borrowers but can also tie the hands of policymakers.

    The report noted that a low real interest rate environment also enhances the chances that in the future the nominal policy rate may hit the lower bound of zero, thereby losing a key monetary policy tool: lowering interest rates to stimulate growth. Because there is a risk that advanced economies will encounter continued very low growth, this limitation may materialise.

    The study outlined that any increase in real interest rates is expected to be modest because the main factors contributing to the decline in real rates are unlikely to be reversed.

    These factors, the report stated, included saving and portfolio with emerging market economies’ saving rate increasing significantly between 2000 and 2007, driving down interest rates. This increase is expected to be only partly reversed.

    The report pointed out that since the financial crisis, demand for safe assets has increased—bonds over the increasingly risky stocks and other equity noting that the trend, which was also driven by reserve accumulation in emerging market economies, is likely to continue unless there is a major unexpected change in policy. The decline in investment rates in advanced economies as a result of the global financial crisis is also likely to persist.

    Since the early 1980s, interest rates, or yields, on assets of all maturities have declined worldwide, well beyond the decline in inflation expectations. This means that real interest rates—the rates paid by borrowers corrected for expected inflation—have declined. Ten-year real interest rates across countries fell from an average of 5.5 per cent per cent in the 1980s to three and a half per cent in the 1990s, two per cent over 2001–08, and 0.33 per cent between 2008 and 2012.

    “With increased global economic and financial integration over the past three decades, real rates are now largely determined by common global factors, especially at longer maturities. While monetary policy dominated the evolution of real rates in the 1980s and early 1990s, improved fiscal policy in advanced economies was the main factor underlying the decline in real interest rates during the rest of the 1990s. More recently, however, the factors mentioned above have played a crucial role.

    ‘’In our study, we construct a new data set of real interest rates for a wide set of countries to examine these factors in detail and predict the future of real interest rates and, more generally, the cost of capital,” the report stated.

    The study noted that the decline in real interest rates in the mid-2000s has often been attributed to two factors of a glut of saving stemming from emerging markets economies, especially China; and a shift in investors’ preferences toward fixed income assets—such as bonds—rather than equity, such as stocks. Both these factors put downward pressure on real interest rates globally while the expected return to invest in equities increased.

    “Scars from the global financial crisis resulted in a sharp and persistent decline in investment in advanced economies. This too contributed significantly to the recent decline in interest rates. The effects of the crisis on saving have been more muted,’’ it added.

  • World Bank, IMF, AfDB move to improve Nigeria’s GDP

    World Bank, IMF, AfDB move to improve Nigeria’s GDP

    The World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) have begun data validation ahead of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebasing in May at the World Economic Forum.

    Head of Research, Standard Chartered, Razia Khan, said the rebased data would take Nigeria’s economy from $270 billion to about $400 billion, adding that GDP statistics have not been rebased since 1990.

    Khan said the low weights given to rapidly growing sectors, such as telecoms and financial services in current GDP measures, most likely meant that activity in the sectors was understated.

    She said key positive expectations from the rebasing implies that GDP would be revised substantially higher; the oil sector’s share of GDP is likely to rise from the estimated 14 to15 per cent while Debt-to-GDP ratios, which are already benign, are likely to fall further as a result of the rebasing.

    Khan also said the average per-capita income is likely to be revised higher which she sees as likely to be positive.

    According to her, some rating negatives are also likely to emerge. For instance, survey data suggests that as many as 64 per cent of Nigerians live on a dollar per day. The difference between average and median per-capita income is likely to widen, revealing greater inequality.

    Also, non-oil revenue as a percentage of GDP is likely to fall from an already-low seven per cent to below five per cent, showing how much work remains to be done on revenue mobilisation.

    Khan explained that even with much larger measured GDP, Nigeria will remain dependent on oil, its key commodity export.

    “The level of oil savings measured against GDP is likely to appear even more inadequate, and Nigeria’s current account surplus will be smaller as a percentage of GDP. Important vulnerabilities will remain. Passage of the 2014 budget is still awaited The IMF expects continued robust performance in Nigeria’s non-oil sector, with overall GDP growth of 7.3 per cent in 2014.

    “Our expectations are more subdued. The non-passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill and uncertainty over future fiscal terms mean that conditions will remain difficult for the oil sector. Delays in the passage of the 2014 budget are an additional source of uncertainty,” she said.

    Khan explained that under Nigerian law, at least 50 per cent of the recurrent budget expenditure allocated in the previous fiscal year can be used for spending in the new year without requiring a new budget to be passed. Also, should last year’s spending levels be maintained, this should be enough to see the country through the first six months of this year.

    Alternatively, if recurrent spending is set at half of 2013 levels, this could theoretically see the country through a whole year.

    “With elections approaching in February 2015, few stand to benefit from a postponement of capital expenditure plans. Officially, the 2014 budget aims to reduce the budget deficit to 1.9 per cent of GDP (from 2.17 per cent in 2013). Our higher estimates reflect our doubts over whether the oil output levels assumed in the budget, of 2.39million barrels per day, can be sustained. Augmentation of revenue, using windfall oil savings from the Excess Crude Account (ECA), is likely to be required. Ahead of an election, there is always a risk of further fiscal deterioration if spending plans are increased,” she said.

    Khan said revenue shocks arising from constrained oil output will cause the mix of recurrent to capital expenditure to fall short of plans in the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) which aims to create more room for investment spending.

    However, this is seen as a temporary departure from MTEF plans, as it is typically easier to cut capital than recurrent expenditure when revenue is pressured. She said efforts to mobilise non-oil revenue in more meaningful quantities in the coming years will be key to Nigeria’s credit strength, and the economy’s ability to reduce its oil dependence.

  • Nigeria’s economic growth to quicken, inflation to ease this year -IMF

    GDP to grow 7.3%, inflation to end 2014 at 7% -IMF

    Nigeria is set to witness economic growth this year while inflation will continue on a downward spiral, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected over the weekend.

    According to IMF, Nigeria’s economy is bound to grow at 7.3%, an increase from 6.4% in 2013, a figure greater than the projected 6.75% growth hitherto bandied by the minister of finance and the co-ordinating minister of the economy, Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

    IMF also disclosed that inflation is set to reduce, pegging the rate at 7% at the end of 2014, a figure lower than 7.9% at the end of 2013. This downward trend is attributed to tight monetary policy, the IMF said.

    “Economic growth is expected to improve further in 2014, driven by agriculture, trade, and services,” the IMF said in a report following consultations with Nigerian officials.

    “Inflation should continue to decline, with lower food prices from higher rice and wheat production and supported by a tight monetary policy and a budget execution that maintains medium-term consolidation objectives,” it said.

    The IMF said there were risks to its projections, including the uncertain pace of the global recovery, lower oil prices and production, slow implementation of reforms and the continuation of a bloody Islamist insurgency in the north.

    It also cautioned against draining fiscal buffers.

    Nigeria’s excess crude account, where Africa’s biggest oil exporter saves money from excess oil revenues not allocated for in the government’s budget, contained $2.28 billion at the end of last year, down from around $9 billion a year earlier.

    Forex reserves have also fallen, to a 19-month low of $40 billion, and the naira, which had been stable, is under pressure from the emerging market asset sell-off and since President Goodluck Jonathan unexpectedly suspended respected central bank governor Lamido Sanusi last month, hitting investor confidence.

    Reserves remain at a relatively comfortable 5.6 months of imports, the IMF noted.

    Nigeria will hold presidential and parliamentary elections next February and investors are concerned about a possible spike in government spending ahead of the vote and potential leakages in oil revenues, in a sector which has suffered a number of corruption scandals in recent months.

    “Policies should focus on rebuilding external and fiscal buffers, avoiding spending pressures from the political cycle, strengthening the transparency and governance of the oil sector,” the IMF said in its report.

    Nigeria estimated oil output would average 2.39 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, which oil industry experts think is overly optimistic and is likely to lead to an underfunded budget, as happened last year.

    Large scale oil theft, which can reach 400,000 bpd, and outages caused by ageing pipelines and other infrastructure deficiencies are keeping output well below the sector’s 2.7 million bpd capacity.

    Despite robust growth and an attractive investment outlook, Nigeria still suffers from gaping inequality, the IMF noted. Thousands of new millionaires are created each year but most of the country’s 170 million people live on less than $1 a day and unemployment is stuck at around 25 percent.

    “Despite significant job creation, unemployment and poverty are high and social indicators lag those of peers,” the IMF said.

    “Continued weaknesses in labour markets, access to electricity, cost of doing business, and small and medium enterprises’ access to finance have prevented a transition to a more robust and inclusive growth path,” it said.

  • IMF says emerging market turbulence raises concerns over liquidity

    IMF says emerging market turbulence raises concerns over liquidity

    The International Monetary Fund urged central banks at the weekend to ensure that financial market rout in the developing world does not lead to an international funding crunch.

    An IMF spokesman said some emerging market countries need to take “urgent action” to improve their economies threatened by a recent sell-off in markets from India and Turkey to Brazil.

    “The turbulence also underscores the need for vigilance among central banks over liquidity conditions in international capital market,” the spokesman said.

  • IMF, U.N. officials among 21 killed in Kabul suicide attack

    Gunmen burst into the restaurant spraying diners with bullets after the bomber blew himself up near the entrance around 7.30 p.m. on Friday evening.

    Thirteen foreigners were among those killed, according to police, and details of the victims began to trickle through Saturday.

    The U.S. embassy said in a post on Twitter that at least two U.S. private citizens were killed. Britain and Canada confirmed they had each lost two nationals, and Denmark said one of its citizens also died.

    After the initial blast, sporadic bursts of gunfire were heard over the next hour. The two gunmen inside the Lebanese restaurant, located in Kabul’s diplomatic enclave, were shot dead by police, an Afghan official said.

    Most foreign forces are preparing to leave Afghanistan this year after more than a decade of war, and there are fears that the Taliban will intensify attacks in the run up to an election in April to find a successor to President Hamid Karzai.

    At odds with Washington over the terms, Karzai is still deliberating whether to allow some U.S. troops to stay on. If no agreement is reached, Afghan forces could be left to fight the insurgents on their own.

    The Taliban claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack, calling it revenge for a U.S. airstrike earlier this week that had also drawn condemnation from Karzai as eight civilians were killed.

    Several kitchen staff survived by fleeing to the roof, where they hid until they were rescued by police.

    “When I was in the kitchen, I heard an explosion outside. Then all the guys escaped up and I went to the roof and stayed with my back to the chimney for two or three hours,” said Suleiman, a cook at the Lebanese restaurant.

    By midnight, a clearance operation was still underway, with police nervously flashing lasers at passing cars and people on the dark, dusty streets.

    The restaurant had been running for several years, and was a favourite haunt for foreigners, including diplomats, contractors, journalists and aid workers.

    A couple of armed guards were usually on duty at the front entrance, which led to a courtyard in front of the main ground floor dining room.

    The suicide bomb attack took place at the front entrance, but accounts differed over where the gunmen had entered from.

    “The target of the attack was a restaurant frequented by high ranking foreigners… where the invaders used to dine with booze and liquor in the plenty,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in an e-mailed statement, written in English.

    Karzai issued a statement on Saturday condemning the attack, using the opportunity to swipe at the United States for not doing enough to fight “terrorism”.

    “If NATO forces led by the United States of America want to be united and partner with the Afghan people, they have to target terrorism,” he said in a statement. Karzai is upset with Washington, believing it could do more to persuade the Taliban to begin direct peace talks with his government.

    The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) representative in Afghanistan, 60-year-old Lebanese national Wabel Abdallah, was one of the diners killed. He had been leading the Fund’s office in Kabul since 2008.

    “This is tragic news, and we at the Fund are all devastated,” Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. “Our hearts go out to Wabel’s family and friends, as well as the other victims of this attack.”

    The U.N. initially said four staff were killed, but had counted the IMF’s representative in the total. The three included a Russian, an American and a Pakistani.

    The Russian was the senior U.N. political officer in trying to negotiate a start to peace talks with the Taliban.

    “You can imagine the effect it has had on staff members here,” U.N. spokesman Ari Gaitanis told Reuters.

    A British Foreign Office spokeswoman said two Britons were killed in the attack. Del Singh, a British Labour Party candidate for the European Parliament was one of British victims, the other was serving with the EU Police Mission in Afghanistan. A Dane serving with the mission also died.

    Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said two Canadians were killed, but it was unclear which organisation they worked for.

    While the U.S. embassy Twitter post specified the dead Americans were private citizens, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said none of the dead included embassy staff.

    Foreign casualties were taken to a military base in Kabul. At a hospital morgue near the attack, Afghans screamed and cried as they mourned attack victims, some pressing scarves to their faces to stifle sobs. One young man, grieving for his dead father, kicked a wall and howled.

    “One of the restaurant’s cooks was wounded,” said a doctor, Abdul Bashir. “Two dead bodies have been taken to the morgue.”

    While the south and south east of Afghanistan have been the main theatres of action in a war that has dragged on for more than a decade, Kabul has suffered regular attacks.

    Taliban fighters mounted several attacks in the capital during the summer months last year, but the assault on Friday inflicted far higher casualties.

    With attacks still happening daily, Afghanistan and the United States are struggling to agree on a bilateral security pact, raising the prospect that Washington may yet pull out all of its troops this year unless differences are ironed out.

  • Falana seeks new approach to rights issues

    Falana seeks new approach to rights issues

    Lagos lawyer Mr Femi Falana (SAN) has called for a new approach to tackling human rights issues.

    In a statement yesterday in Lagos to mark the Human Rights Day, the frontline lawyer said: “Since most African countries obtained flag independence over 50 years ago the rate of poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, ignorance and diseases has been on the ascendancy. The situation in countries that are endowed with natural resources is nothing to write home about as official corruption, capital flight and currency devaluation have worsened the crisis of underdevelopment. “Instead of mobilising the people of Africa for development, the civilian and military wings of the political class have handed over the economy of most countries to Western development agencies, particularly the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

    “Notwithstanding that the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) prescribed for most African countries led to retrenchment of workers and withdrawal of subsidies from social services public assets were sold to the comprador bourgeoisie in the name of privatisation. While the members of the ruling class have engaged in economic sabotage to ward off poverty the masses of people have been left in the lurch. In Nigeria, socio-economic rights have been deliberately been made non-justiciable in the Constitution.

    “Consequently, the government cannot be dragged to court for its failure to provide adequate funds for education, health, housing, transportation and employment.

    However, some laws have been made towards the realisation of the

    Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy outlined in Chapter II of the Constitution. It has been held by the Supreme Court that such laws are enforceable by our courts. It is on record that our municipal courts and the Community Court of Justice (ECOWAS Court) have begun to enforce the socio-economic rights of Nigerians in accordance with the African Charter on Human and Peoples Rights (Ratification and Enforcement) Act Cap A9 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004.

    “As Nigeria joins the rest of civilised humanity today to celebrate the Human Rights Day I am compelled to call on the National Human Rights

     

    Commission and all non state actors involved in the defence and promotion of human rights to appreciate that political and civil rights are meaningless to the majority of our people who are battling with

    deprivation.

    “In other words, the right to life has no meaning to people who have no means of livelihood or who cannot afford medical expenses when they fall sick while freedom of expression is of no relevance to millions of illiterate people. Unlike human rights bodies in western countries which can concentrate attention on esoteric rights because there is social security for the vulnerable people it is high time human rights bodies in Africa paid due regard to the enforcement and implementation of socio-economic rights.”

  • Nigeria’s economy is doing well, says IMF

    Nigeria’s economy is doing well, says IMF

    The nation’s has performed well in the course of 2013, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has said.

    The verdict was based on IMF’s findings when its mission visited Nigeria last month to consult with the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okono-Iweala.

    In a statement, IMF said the mission visited Nigeria during November 13-26 to conduct discussions for the 2013 Article IV consultation, adding that it met with the Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, senior government officials, members of the Legislature and representatives of the private sector.

    It explained that at the conclusion of the visit, the Fund’s Mission Chief and Senior Resident Representative in Nigeria, Gene Leon, said:  “Nigeria’s economy has continued to perform strongly in 2013. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew by 6.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2013 (compared to third quarter 2012), supported by robust performances in agriculture, services, and trade.”

    He said oil theft/production losses, have adversely impacted export receipts and government’s revenues, leading to a significant drawdown from the Excess Crude Account.

    He said inflation declined to 7.8 per cent (end-September 2013) from 12 per cent at end 2012, in part owing to lower food prices and monetary policy implemented by the CBN. The exchange rate has been stable, and the banking sector is well capitalised with low levels of non-performing loans.

    Leon observed that although the outlook is positive, “risks need to be managed.  Growth is projected to increase to about 7 per cent in 2014, while inflation should remain subdued in the single digits.”

    He warned that Nigeria could be affected by a decline in oil prices, the pace of recovery in global economic and financial conditions, capital outflows, continued losses in oil production, or increased security concerns, assuring however that the economy can manage such shocks given a relatively flexible exchange rate regime, improved financial crisis management capacity, and a stable banking system.

    He said fiscal buffers are low and a sustained high rate of growth is needed to reduce unemployment, and poverty.  “Fiscal consolidation is progressing well, and the momentum needs to be preserved through the on-going election cycle.

    He said key public financial management reforms are underway, including the implementation of a Treasury Single Account (TSA) and integrated information management systems, but lower-than-budgeted oil revenues are impacting budgetary plans at the federal, state, and local levels;

    He highlighted the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers to manage oil revenue volatility, adding that moving towards a sustainable non-oil primary deficit path will require a resolve in continuing fiscal consolidation, including through resisting procyclical election spending, mobilizsing non-oil revenue, improving efficiency in the public sector, and strengthening transparency in oil sector governance.

    He said: “The current monetary stance is appropriate and should remain geared towards sustaining low inflation and a stable financial system. Managing liquidity in the banking system remains a priority, and will be aided by the implementation of the TSA and prudent fiscal management.

    “Likewise, the CBN has maintained stability of the naira, containing inflation and facilitating business confidence. However, the continued importance of oil receipts and the magnitude of portfolio flows, present potential vulnerabilities, and exchange rate flexibility may be a useful tool in the event of persistent pressures. Ongoing initiatives to strengthen the supervisory framework, including supervision of banking groups, should continue, and Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria’s activities phased out gradually.

    “To promote inclusive growth and mitigate the impact of vulnerabilities, on-going structural and institutional reforms should be pursued resolutely. The 20/20 Vision and the Transformation Agenda should provide a framework for on-going reforms, including the privatisation of the generation and distribution of energy, initiatives to increase food security and viability of agriculture, and programs funded through the Universal Basic Education Commission to improve human capital development.

    He said access to financial services for small-and medium-sized enterprises, which have been key in many countries to enabling all to benefit from growth, could be improved.

    He said other initiatives to improve the business environment and investment promotion could support diversification across sectors, but should be underpinned mainly by improvements in productivity and competitiveness. Growth in the next decade will need to rely on the continued implementation of reforms to strengthen institutions, improve efficiency, and prioritize quality infrastructure investments.

    “The mission would like to thank the authorities and technical staff for their excellent cooperation.”

  • IMF’s Zhu Sees Tapering as Key Risk to Growth in Emerging Asia

    IMF’s Zhu Sees Tapering as Key Risk to Growth in Emerging Asia

    Several emerging economies in Asia face a “key source of risk” in the eventual tapering of monetary stimulus in advanced nations, an International Monetary Fund official said.

    “Global growth is in low gear and downside risks persist,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Zhu Min said in prepared remarks for a conference in Port Vila, Vanuatu. He didn’t specify which countries were at risk from the scaling back of so-called quantitative easing policies that the central banks of Japan and the U.S. have adopted.

    “Advanced economies are recovering, but overall recovery is slow and is hindered by constraints on both the demand and the supply sides,” he said. “Emerging markets are still in the lead, although they are slowing down from elevated levels in recent years.”

    He said economic expansion in emerging Asia is expected to reach 6.25 percent to 6.5 percent this year and next.

  • IMF, World Bank stall Nigeria’s development, says don

    IMF, World Bank stall Nigeria’s development, says don

    A political scientist at Lead City University, Prof Chibuzo Nwoke, has accused the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and other international communities of causing underdevelopment in Nigeria and Africa.

    He said they are culpable because of the influence they wield over Nigeria’s leadership by controlling and dictating for them.

    The scholar spoke at the third inaugural lecture of the university held in Ibadan.

    According to him, the international communities recommend policies that would aggravate the problem inherent in the specialisation in raw materials export and foreign control over the enemy.

    He said: “Nigeria and Africa’s underdevelopment is the result of its engagement predominantly in primary resource production, which is controlled by foreign transnational entities, merely for export to metropolitan countries. This contrived and structural development of underdevelopment is, therefore, largely externally-induced.

    “Nigeria’s stagnation in the role of raw material exporter is regularly reinforced by the neo-classical economics principle of comparative advantage. It is an accepted fact that the IMF and World Bank are now involved in the control and management of Nigeria’s economy.”

    For a country that seeks development, the political scientist urged the government to develop Nigeria’s mineral resources, adding that it will facilitate economic transformation and eradicate misery and poverty.

    “There should be an urgent policy, the systematic mobilisation of our huge endowments of minerals, not primarily for export but, in the indigenous industrialisation process to attain self-reliance and to eradicate poverty, ignorance and diseases,” he said.

    In his opening remarks, the university’s Vice-Chancellor, Prof Olufemi Onabajo, said the institution has decided to establish the lecture series to bring integrity to the university.

    He urged other lecturers to aspire to the peak of their careers, noting that it is the fulfilment for any academic.