The Nation Newspaper

Tag: Inflation

  • Access Bank: inflation to dip to 15.06%

    Access Bank: inflation to dip to 15.06%

    January inflation rate (year-on-year) will dip lower to 15.05per cent, compared to the 15.37 per cent recorded in December last year,  the Economic Intelligence Group of Access Bank  has said

    This would mark the 12th consecutive month of moderation from a peak of 18.72 per cent attained in January 2017, the bank stated in a report released yesterday.

    “Our methodology adopts an autoregressive analysis of past prices, while it recognises all the assumptions used by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its computation of monthly composite consumer price index (CCPI),” the group said.

    On inflation forecast drivers, the lender said looking in more detail at the drivers, its analysis indicates that the downward trend in inflation rate in January reflected drop in food prices and stability in the currency.

    In January, prices of food and non -alcoholic beverages, the largest component in the CPI basket (with a weight of 51.8 per cent) nudged lower supported by ample agricultural supply. According to the survey, prices for staple food commodities notably fish, grains, garri, tomatoes, and tubers ticked downwards in January.

    The stabilisation of the naira (on both the official and the parallel rates) amid consistent CBN USD supply in its auctions kept the core index subdued in January. The local unit remained largely flat in the month, averaging N363.68/$ in January at the parallel market relative to N363. 83/$ in December.

    “We expect to see continued moderation of fixed income and treasury yields as the inflation rate trends lower. Average 90-day Treasury Bills yields ticked lower to 13.83 per cent in January 2018, compared to 14.86per cent in December 2017. Equities market will continue to benefit in a regime of sustained falling yields on money market investments,” the report said.

    Although the naira has stabilised on the parallel exchange rate in recent months, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will likely remain wary of cutting rates prematurely for fear of triggering any weakness in the local currency.

    With no change in the benchmark rate anticipated, we expect the CBN to continue issuance of Open Market Operation (OMO) and stabilisation securities with focus on curbing naira liquidity to reduce speculative USD demand.

  • Inflation rate down 10 times in a row, says NBS

    Inflation rate down 10 times in a row, says NBS

    Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, decreased to 15.90 per cent making it 0.01 per cent lower than the 15.91 per cent recorded in October, 2017.

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which stated this in a report published on it’s website, however said despite the month-on-month decrease, the inflation rate increased year-on-year by 15.90 per cent in November 2017.

    The report said: “Increases were recorded in all Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose, COICOP, divisions that yield the Headline Index. On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.78 per cent in November 2017, 0.02 per cent points higher from the rate of 0.76 per cent recorded in October.

    NBS said this represents the first rise in month-on-month inflation following five consecutive months on month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017.

    It pointed out that the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve month period ending in November 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve month period, was 16.76 per cent, showing 0.21 per cent point lower from 16.97 per cent recorded in October 2017.

    The report added that urban inflation rate rose by 16.27 per cent year-on-year in November from 16.19 per cent recorded in October, while the rural inflation rate also eased by 15.59 per cent in November from 15.67 per cent in October.

    On month-on-month basis, the report indicated, the urban index rose by 0.85 per cent in November, up by 0.03 from 0.82 per cent recorded in October, while the rural index rose by 0.724 per cent in November, up by 0.009 when compared with 0.715 per cent in October.

    The corresponding twelve month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.26 per cent in November.

    This is less than 17.57 per cent reported in October 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in November is 16.29 per cent compared to 16.41 percent recorded in October 2017.

    High year-on-year food prices and food price pressure continued into November though consistently at a slower pace month-on-month.

    The Food Index decreased marginally by 0.01 per cent from the 20.31 recorded in October and increased by 20.30 per cent year-on-year in November 2017, NBS said.

    On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased to 0.88 per cent in November, causing a 0.03 per cent increase from the 0.85 per cent recorded in October, 2017.

     

    The report showed that this represents the first rise month on month, following five consecutive disinflation in month on month inflation since a 2017 high of 2.57 per cent in May 2017.

    The average change of the Food sub-index annual rate for the twelve-month period ending in November 2017, over the previous twelve month average, was 19.39 percent, thereby resulting in a 0.25 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change, 19.14 per cent recorded in October.

    “The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereal, milk, cheese, eggs, coffee, tea, cocoa, fish and Oil and fats,” the report explained.

    All items inflation in November 2017 was highest in Bauchi at 23.63 per cent, Nasarawa at 19.90 per cent and Kebbi at 19.22 per cent on a year-on-year basis; while Kogi, Edo and Delta States recorded the slowest rise in headline year-on-year inflation at 11.27 per cent, 13.11 per cent and 13.75 per cent respectively.

    However, on a month-on-month basis, all items inflation was highest in Bauchi at 1.6 per cent, in Katsina at 1.44 per cent and Oyo 1.43 per cent; while Plateau, Edo, and Benue recorded the lowest month-on-month all item inflation in November 2017 at 0 per cent, 0.07 per cent and 0.21 per cent respectively.

    Food inflation, in November 2017, was highest in Kwara, Ebonyi and Nasarawa states at 28.11 per cent, 25.03 per cent and 24.95 per cent respectively, while Kogi at 13.25 per cent, Benue at 15.19 per cent and Bauchi at 15.42 per cent recorded the slowest rise in food inflation in November 2017.

    On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Oyo and Ebonyi at 1.96 per cent and the Federal Capital Territoty, Abuja at 1.93 per cent. Also, Akwa Ibom, Plateau and Benue at the decreased rates of 0.69 per cent, 0.13 per cent, and 0.06 per cent respectively, recorded food price deflation or negative inflation in November.

  • Inflation drops by 15% in 11 months, says Emefiele

    Inflation drops by 15% in 11 months, says Emefiele

    The Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele has said inflation rate declined by about 15 per cent over the past 11 months as fiscal and monetary reforms continue to impact positively on the Nigerian economy.

    Delivering the 47th Convocation Lecture of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, (UNN) entitled “A Mindset for Succeeding in Today’s Nigeria” yesterday, Emefiele pointed out that inflation had declined from a peak of 18.7 per cent in January 2017 to 15.9 per cent in November.

    The apex bank chief lauded the improvements in the macro economy noting that the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) recovered after five quarters of continuous contraction, recording positive growth of 0.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively in second and third quarters of 2017.

    He added that the exchange rate has appreciated significantly from N525/$1 in February 2017 to about N360/$1 now, tapering premium across various windows and segments of the market.

    “Foreign exchange supply has improved since the establishment of the Investors & Exporters Window, with autonomous inflows of over $10 billion through this window alone from April 2017 to date. Foreign Exchange Reserve has recovered significantly from a low of just over $23 billion in October 2016 to about $35.2 billion by November 27, 2017,” Emefiele said.

    He pointed out that the World Bank’s “Doing Business Indicators” for 2018 indicated improvement in Nigerian macro economy as Nigeria rose by 24 places to rank 145 out of 190 countries.

    According to him, there has been a significant boost in local production, which is due to CBN’s development finance efforts and the dogged implementation of its foreign exchange policies.

    “Today many local manufacturers are reporting major boosts to their revenue and profit,” Emefiele said.

    Emefiele said that the growing Nigerian population presents additional opportunities for economic empowerment for Nigerians.

    He noted that Nigeria is now estimated to have a population of over 180 million people and this population is predicted by the United Nations to grow to 398 million people in 2050, which would make Nigeria, the third largest in the world by that time.

    According to him, the population trend presents a significant opportunity for Nigerian graduates to turn whatever challenge they may be facing into opportunities that can harness these demographic shifts.

    “Imagine what would happen if Nigeria and Nigerians cannot provide food, shelter, clothing, health, education, and other basic things for this teeming population. Even though these trends should already begin to bother current leaders in our country today, I believe that young Nigerians can begin today to see these trends as opportunities and think of what they can do take advantage of the situation,” Emefiele said.

  • Inflation drops to 15.91%

    Inflation drops to 15.91%

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has dropped to 15.91 per cent in October  from 15.98 recorded in September.

    The NBS made this known in its “Consumer Price Index (CPI), October, 2017 Report’’ released  yesterday in Abuja.

    The CPI, which measured inflation, increased by 15.91 per cent (year on Year) in October 2017

    According to the bureau, this is 0.07 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in September (15.98) per cent.

    It said the index made it the ninth consecutive decline or slowdown in the inflation rate, though still positive in headline year-on-year inflation, since January.

    According to the report, increases have been recorded in all the classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the Headline Index.

    The NBS  said there was an average headline year on year inflation for the first five months of the year (January to May 2017) which stood at 17.45 per cent.

    It said average headline year on year inflation for the next five months of the year (June to October 2017) also stood at 16.01 per cent.

    The report further said the values indicated disinflation from June to date, compared to from January to May 2017.

    On a month-on-month basis, the report noted that the headline index increased by 0.76 per cent in October 2017, 0.02per cent points lower from the rate of 0.78 per cent recorded in September.

    The report said this development represented the fifth consecutive month-on-month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017.

    It said average headline month-on-month inflation for the first five months of the year (January to May 2017) stood at 1.54 per cent.

    The NBS said the average headline month-on-month inflation for the next five months of the year (June to October 2017), stood at 1.06 per cent, indicating disinflation from June to date, compared to from January to May 2017.

    “While average month on month food inflation for the first five months of the year (January to May 2017) stood at 2.01 per cent, average month on month food inflation for the next five months of the year (June to October 2017), stood at 1.27 per cent indicating a general slowdown in the rise in food prices from June to date compared to from January to May 2017, though the rate of price increases has remained generally higher on a year on year basis,” NBS said.

    Headline inflation was highest in Bauchi state (23.87 per cent) while the lowest was recorded in Kogi state (9.83 per cent). Food inflation was highest in Kwara state at 26.27 per cent and lowest in Kogi state at 11.61 per cent.

    The federal government set the inflation benchmark for 2018 at 12.4 per cent in the proposal submitted to the National Assembly by President Muhammadu Buhari on November 7.

  • Inflation drops but food prices rise

    Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday showed that  inflation again dropped to 15.98 per cent from 16.01 per cent for the month of September.

    It is the eighth consecutive time the country’s inflation rate is dropping this year.

    However, all major food sub-indexes increased by 20.32 per cent year-on-year during the period under review, an increase from the 20.25 per cent recorded in August.

    The report also showed that on a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.78 per cent during the month, 0.19 per cent lower than the 0.97 per cent recorded in August.

    The report reads: “This  (inflation rate drop) was 0.03 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in August (the 16.01) per cent making it the eighth consecutive decline in the rate of headline year on year inflation since January 2017.

    “Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index.

    “On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.78 per cent in September 2017, 0.19 per cent points lower from the rate of 0.97per cent recorded in August.

    “The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in September 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 17.17 per cent, showing 0.16 percent point lower from 17.33 per cent recorded in August 2017.

    “The Urban index rose by 16.18 per cent (year-on-year) in September2017, up by 0.05 per cent point from 16.13 per cent recorded in August and the Rural index increased by 15.81 per cent in September down from 15.91 per cent in August.

    “On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.84 per cent in September 2017, down from 0.99 per cent recorded in August, while the rural index rose by 0.74 percent in September 2017, down from 0.95 per cent in August.

    “The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index decreased from 18.15 per cent in August to 17.87 per cent in September, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in September was 16.52 per cent compared to 16.58 per cent recorded in August 2017.

    “The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of potatoes, yams and other tubers, milk cheese and eggs, bread and cereals, coffee tea and cocoa, soft drinks, fish, meat and oil and fats.

    “On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.87 per cent in September, down from 1.14percent recorded in August.”

  • MPC to consolidate forex, inflation gains

    MPC to consolidate forex, inflation gains

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will consolidate on the gains of the foreign exchange policy which has ensured stability as well as the continuous drop in inflation rate at its meeting today and tomorrow.

    The committee is likely to maintain the status quo on all rates according to analysts.

    The decision at the meeting, the fifth this year, is likely to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which is the benchmark interest rate, unchanged at 14 per cent, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR)at 22.5 per cent, Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent and the Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR- benchmark interest rate.

    Managing Director, Afrinvest West Africa Limited Ike Chioke explained at the weekend that the committee members had agreed on the need for more fiscal-monetary policy coordination to sustain improvements in domestic macroeconomic fundamentals.

    He said with the economy now running out of high base effect driven moderation in headline inflation, there is likelihood that inflation rate will rise for the first time since the start of the year in September.

    He said given supposed price-anchored monetary policy regime, the MPC is not likely to cut benchmark rate in a period of rising inflation expectation.

    “MPR has become a less effective Monetary Policy Tool: the case for easing via benchmark rate reduction becomes weaker if the current disparity between the benchmark rate and short-term fixed income yields is taken into consideration. Although the recent bullish streak in the fixed income market has narrowed this spread, it is not enough to justify a cut in interest.

    “While our medium term outlook favours a gradual monetary easing, we believe the stabilisation of the forex market is paramount to achieving monetary policy objectives. The forex market, despite improvements recorded so far in the year, is still in a fragile state as the CBN is yet to harmonise all rates at the official market. As such, in the event that a unified rate is not achieved, monetary easing poses a threat for forex stability”.

    He said the current realities of Nigeria’s budget deficit, suggests the need for the fiscal authorities to continuously fund this disparity, which present tightening stance enhances; though at a higher cost to government.

    Managing Director Cowry Assets Management Limited Johnson Chukwu agreed with Chioke that the MPC will keep rates unchanged.

    “They will keep the rates the way they are. Inflation has moderated to 16.01 per cent and the economy has wriggled out of recession. So, this is not the right time to tamper with rates especially as the economic indicators are moving to positive direction,” he said.

    At the official market, the CBN continued with its weekly Small and Medium Ebterprises sales worth $100 million for spot and short tenured forwards under 60 Days while the Official rate improved from N305.95/$1 the preceding Friday to N305.90/$1 on Monday before eventually closing the week at N305.85/$1.

    This implies a marginal 3bps appreciation Week-on-Week. Similarly, at the interbank market, the domestic currency depreciated from N354.99/$1.00 on Monday to N356.99/$1 on Wednesday, but strengthened to N353.50/$1 by the close of the week, up 0.4 per cent Week-on-Week.

    At the parallel market, the naira exchanged for N369.70/$1 on Monday, strengthened to N367/$1.00 on Tuesday and traded flattish till the end of the week, up 0.5 per cent Week-on-Week.

    Despite the spate of forex interventions by the CBN, the external reserves have remained on the uptrend, reaching a 31-month high of $31.9 billion on September 19. This accretion to the reserves has been largely due to the stability in oil prices as well as improved production volumes and we believe this will give the CBN more impetus to continue with its interventions.

  • Inflation drops to 16.01%

    Inflation drops to 16.01%

    Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has shown that inflation has dropped for the seventh consecutive month this year.

    “Consumer price index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 16.01per cent (year-on-year) in August 2017.

    “This was 0.04per cent points lower than the rate recorded in July (16.05per cent) making it the seventh consecutive decline in the rate of headline year on year inflation since January 2017.

    “The urban index rose by 16.13per cent (year-on-year) in August 2017, down by 0.09per cent points from 16.04 per cent recorded in July, and the rural index increased by 15.91per cent in August from 16.08per cent  in July,” the NBS report showed.

    The data however showed that food prices reached an eight-year high in July.

    “Food price pressure continued into July as all major food sub-indexes increased. The food index increased by 20.28per cent (year-on-year) in July, up by 0.37per cent points from the rate recorded in June (19.91per cent).

    “This represents the highest year on year increase in food inflation since the beginning of the new series in 2009,” NBS said.

    According to the NBS, food index reduced by 0.03 per cent to stand at 20.25 per cent as against 20.28 per cent recorded in July.

    “Food price pressure continued into August as all major food sub-indexes increased. The Food Index increased by 20.25per cent (year-on-year) in July, down marginally by 0.03 per cent points from the rate recorded in July (20.28 per cent).”

    Inflation rate declined from 18.72per cent in January to stand at 16.01per cent in August 2017.

  • Inflation drops to 16.05, says NBS

    Inflation drops to 16.05, says NBS

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, dropped to 16.05 per cent last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has said.

    In its CPI July 2017 report released yesterday in Abuja, the NBS explained that the fall recorded was 0.05 per cent points lower than the 16.10 recorded in June, making it the sixth consecutive decline in the rate of headline inflation since January.

    The bureau  stated that the headline index increased by 1.21 per cent in July, 0.37 per cent points lower from the rate of 1.58 per cent recorded in June on a month-on-month basis.

    On food inflation, it stated that food price pressure continued into July with 20.28 per cent (year-on-year) from 19.91 per cent.

    It stated that the figure represented the highest year on year increase in food inflation since the beginning of the new series in 2009.

    The NBS, however, stated the food sub-index increased by 1.52 per cent in July, down by 0.47 per cent points from 1.99 per cent recorded in June on a month-on-month basis.

    It stated that core inflation, which excluded the prices of volatile agricultural produce eased by 0.30 per cent in July to 12.20 per cent points from 12.50 per cent recorded in June.

    It stated that core inflation similar to overall/headline inflation had declined consecutively since January 2017.

    On a month-on-month basis, it stated that the core sub-index increased by 1.00 per cent in July, 0.32 per cent points lower from 1.32 per cent recorded in June.

  • Inflation drops to 16.05% in July – NBS

    Inflation drops to 16.05% in July – NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says the country’s inflation as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), further dropped to 16.05 per cent in July from 16.10 per cent in June.

    The NBS disclosed this in its CPI July 2017 report released on Monday in Abuja.

    The report stated that the headline inflation again reduced to 16.05 per cent (year-on-year) in July compared to 16.10 per cent in June 2016.

    According to the bureau, this makes it the sixth consecutive decline in the rate of headline year on year inflation since January.

    The bureau  stated that the Headline index increased by 1.21 per cent in July, 0.37 per cent points lower from the rate of 1.58 per cent recorded in June on a month-on-month basis.

    On food inflation, it stated that food price pressure continued into July with 20.28 per cent (year-on-year) from 19.91 per cent.

    It stated that the figure represented the highest year on year increase in food inflation since the beginning of the new series in 2009.

    It, however, stated the Food sub-index increased by 1.52 per cent in July, down by 0.47 per cent points from 1.99 per cent recorded in June on a month-on-month basis.

    Meanwhile, it stated that core inflation which excluded the prices of volatile agricultural produce eased by 0.30 per cent in July to 12.20 per cent points from 12.50 per cent recorded in June.

    It stated that core inflation similar to overall/headline inflation had declined consecutively since January 2017.

    On a month-on-month basis, it stated that the core sub-index increased by 1.00 per cent in July, 0.32 per cent points lower from 1.32 per cent recorded in June.

  • Nigeria’s inflation drops to 16.10 % in June – NBS

    Nigeria’s inflation drops to 16.10 % in June – NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that the country’s inflation as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) further dropped to 16.10 per cent in June from 16.25 per cent in May.

    The NBS made this known in its CPI June 2017 report released on Monday in Abuja.

    According to the bureau, this is the fifth consecutive decline in the rate of inflation since January.

    This, it stated was 0.15 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in May -16.25 per cent.

    On a month-on-month basis, the bureau stated that the Headline index increased by 1.58 per cent in June 2017, 0.30 per cent points lower than the rate of 1.88 per cent recorded in May 2017.

    It stated that month on Month inflation had cumulatively risen by 9.28 per cent since January 2017.

    The bureau stated that the Food Index increased by 19.91 per cent (year-on-year) in June 2017, down by 0.64 per cent points from the rate recorded in May (19.27 per cent), indicating continued pressure in food prices.

    It stated that Price movements recorded by All Items less farm produce or Core sub-index rose by 12.50 per cent (year-on-year) in June, down by 0.50 per cent points from rate recorded in May (13.00) per cent.

    This, the bureau stated represented the 8th straight month of decline in the core index since November 2016.

    Meanwhile, the Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) Price Watch for June, released by NBS said that an average price paid by consumer for petrol increased by 1.2 per cent year-on-year.

    The bureau stated that the average price paid by consumers for the product decreased by -0.3 per cent month-on-month to N150. 3 in June 2017 from N150.7 in May 2017.

    It stated that states with the highest average price of petrol were Yobe (N168), Gombe (N167.50) and Adamawa (162.50).

    The bureau, however, stated states with the lowest average price of petrol were Abuja, Edo, Ekiti ,Ogun, and Osun which sold for N145 in the month.

    Also, Ondo and Kano sold for N145.3 while Kwara and Oyo sold the product for N145.5.