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Tag: Inflation

  • Inflation, naira depreciation, others erode pension assets value

    Inflation, naira depreciation, others erode pension assets value

    • By Omobola Tolu-Kusimo

    Rising inflation at 33.5 per cent eroded pension asset values and retirees’ purchasing power last year, The Nation has learnt.

    Similarly, continued naira depreciation during the year under review undermined foreign investment returns and increased operational costs even as employer defaults persisted, threatening scheme stability and necessitating stronger enforcement on the pension fund assets which stood at N22.51 trillion during the period under review.

    These among others were cited by the newspaper in the National Pension Commission (PenCom) Fourth-Quarter 2023 Report as the macroeconomic risks and sectoral challenges that faced the country’s pension fund assets as at Quarter Four, 2024.

    Additionally, PenCom stated that the uneven implementation of the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) across States continues to limit nationwide coverage and inclusivity.

    Disclosing strategic priorities, the commission said to address emerging risks and strengthen the pension system, key priorities were outlined for Quarter One, 2025.

    These include intensifying enforcement and recovery efforts, expanding the Micro Pension Plan through increased awareness and simplified enrolment, and enhancing data integrity and transparency.

    The Commission said: “It also intends to provide targeted support to States implementing the CPS, while offering supervisory guidance (where necessary) to PFAs in adjusting investment strategies to mitigate inflation and currency risks. These efforts reinforce the Commission’s unwavering commitment to protecting pension assets, broadening coverage, and fostering a resilient, transparent, and inclusive pension system.

    “The Nigerian pension industry continued on a growth trajectory in Q4 2024, reflecting sustained stakeholder confidence, increased compliance, and expanding coverage across formal and informal sectors. During the quarter, Retirement Savings Account (RSA) registrations grew to 10.58 million, with 84,495 new enrolees, reinforcing the relevance of the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) as a dependable vehicle for retirement planning.

    “The industry’s financial strength was further demonstrated by a N1.13 trillion increase in the Net Asset Value (NAV) of pension fund assets, which rose from N21.38 trillion in Q3 to N22.51 trillion in Q4 2024. This was largely driven by increased pension contributions, improved capital market conditions, and higher investment income across key asset classes.

    Read Also: FG reports N6.9tn revenue in first four months of 2025

    “Progress was also recorded in deepening financial inclusion through the Micro Pension Plan (MPP). A total of 8,905 new contributors were onboarded, raising total enrolment to 172,936, with contributions of N89.38 million received and N17.36 million paid out in contingent withdrawals during the period. Pension contributions remained strong, amounting to N342.22 billion for the quarter, with the Public Sector contributing N174.77 billion and the Private Sector N167.45 billion, indicating broad-based commitment to retirement funding obligations,” PenCom stated.

    On compliance, the Commission said a total of 2,530 Pension Clearance Certificates (PCCs) were issued and recovered N407.97 million from 30 defaulting employers. Legal action was initiated against eight employers, highlighting the Commission’s intensified enforcement efforts to protect pension rights.

    “Despite these gains, the sector faced macroeconomic headwinds. Inflation rose sharply to 33.5per cent, adversely affecting the real value of pension assets and threatening the adequacy of retirement benefits. Similarly, continued naira depreciation and currency volatility disrupted investment planning and returns on foreign-denominated assets. Employer defaults and non-uniform CPS implementation across States also posed challenges to nationwide coverage and scheme sustainability.

    “Looking ahead, the Commission remains focused on strategic interventions to enhance sector resilience and integrity. Key priorities for Q1 2025 include strengthening compliance enforcement, accelerating MPP growth, improving data quality and reporting transparency, deepening engagement with non-compliant States, and guiding Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) on responsive investment strategies that mitigate inflationary and currency risks. The Commission remains committed to fostering a secure, inclusive, and sustainable industry that delivers value to contributors and retirees, even in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty,” the Commission said.

  • Inflation rate drops to 22.97 per cent

    Inflation rate drops to 22.97 per cent

    Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso met yesterday as part of efforts to deepen fiscal and monetary policy coordination and consolidate the gains of the macro-economic reforms.

    The meeting at the CBN headquarters in Abuja came as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing inflation rate dropped for the second consecutive month.

    Headline inflation eased to 22.97 per cent in May 2025 from 23.71 per cent in April 2025. It was 24.23 per cent in February 2025.

    Experts agreed that the stability in the foreign exchange (forex), reduction in energy costs and improved agricultural activities contributed to the sustained decline in average costs of goods and services.

    The meeting between the two leading members of the economic management team focused on strategies to consolidate the continuing improvements in prices.

    The meeting also addressed ways to ensure that macroeconomic gains are not only sustained but translated into tangible benefits for the broader economy.

    According to the statement issued after the meeting, the officials reviewed ongoing policy reforms and examined how closer coordination between fiscal and monetary levers can help stabilise prices, restore investor confidence, and unlock new pathways for private-sector-driven growth.

    Read Also: Inflation shrinks for second consecutive month

    The CPI report showed a general decrease in prices across the sectors. Food inflation dropped by 12 basis points from 21.26 per cent in April 2025 to 21.14 per cent in May 2025. Core inflation-all items excluding farm produce and energy, also eased by 110 basis points to 22.28 per cent in May from 23.39 per cent in April.

    On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in May 2025 was 1.53 per cent, which was 0.33 per cent lower than 1.86 per cent recorded in April 2025.

    NBS reported that three major contributors to the headline inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages: 9.20 per cent, restaurants and accommodation services: 2.97 per cent, and transport: 2.45 per cent; while the least contributors were recreation, sport, and culture: 0.07 per cent, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics: 0.09 per cent, and insurance and financial services: 0.11 per cent.

  • JUST IN: Inflation drops to 22.97% in May, says NBS

    JUST IN: Inflation drops to 22.97% in May, says NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday said inflation declined to 22.97 per cent in May 2025 from the 23.71 per cent recorded in April 2025.

    Statistician General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, made this known in a press statement issued at Abuja.

    He said, “The headline inflation rate for May 2025 decreased to 22.97 per cent compared to the April 2025 rate of 23.71 per cent. This represents a decline of 0.74% from April 2025.”

    He said on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in May 2025 was 1.53 per cent, which was 0.33 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2025 (1.86 per cent).

    According to him, contributions to Headline Inflation at the divisional level, the three major contributors to the headline inflation were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages: 9.20 per cent, Restaurants & Accommodation Services: 2.97 per cent, and Transport: 2.45 per cent; while the least contributors were Recreation, Sport, and Culture: 0.07 per cent, Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco, and Narcotics: 0.09 per cent, and Insurance and Financial Services: 0.11 per cent.

    The food inflation rate in May 2025, said Adeniran, was 21.14 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

    He said on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in May 2025 was 2.19 per cent, which rose by 0.13 per cent compared to April 2025 (2.06 per cent).

    The NBS boss said the increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in average prices of items such as Yam, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon), Cassava Tuber, Maize Flour, Fresh Pepper, Sweet Potatoes, etc.

    On Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, NBS said it stood at 22.28 per cent in May 2025 on a year-on-year basis.

    He said on a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.10 per cent in May 2025, down 0.24 percentage points from April 2025 (1.34 per cent).

    Read Also: Inflation shrinks for second consecutive month

    Adeniran said the inflation rate of the newly introduced sub-indices for May 2025 shows that both Farm Produce and Goods stood at 22.38 per cent and 9.39 per cent compared to April 2025, which were 0.95 per cent and 1.89 per cent respectively.

    He added that conversely, Services and Energy stood at 1.79 per cent and -0.43 per cent compared to 2.20% and 13.6% recorded in the previous month, respectively.

    He said on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in May 2025 was 23.14 per cent.

    According to him, on a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 1.40 per cent in May 2025, up by 0.22 per cent compared to April 2025 (1.18 per cent).

    Adeniran said the rural inflation rate in May 2025 was 22.70 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

     On a month-on-month basis, according to him, the rural inflation rate in May 2025 was 1.83 per cent, down by 1.72 per cent compared to April 2025 (3.56 per cent).

    Continuing, the statement noted that on

    State-Level Analyses: The State CPI for April 2025 for some states has been revised due to updated information.

    He said the change affected all states except for Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, and the FCT.

    He stressed that the revision, however, does not affect the National CPI for April 2025.

    In the period under review, NBS said the all Items Inflation all-item index on a year-on-year basis, was highest in Borno (38.93 per cent), Niger (34.97 per cent), and Plateau (32.35 per cent), while it recorded the lowest in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis in Katsina (16.25 per cent), Adamawa (18.20 per cent), Delta (18.41 per cent).

    He said on a month-on-month basis, May 2025 recorded the highest increases in Bayelsa (9.11 per cent), Bauchi (4.85 per cent), and Borno (4.42 per cent), while it recorded declines in Kaduna (-6.75 per cent), Jigawa (-4.40 per cent), and Edo (-2.94 per cent).

    He said State-level analyses of the food index in May 2025 show that food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Borno (64.36 per cent), Bayelsa (39.85 per cent), Taraba (38.58 per cent); while it recorded the slowest rise in Katsina (6.90 per cent), Rivers (9.18 per cent), and Kwara (11.31 per cent). On a month-on-month basis, in May 2025 food inflation was highest in Bayelsa (12.68 per cent), Cross River (11.15 per cent), and Anambra (9.10 per cent); while states like Katsina (-5.42 per cent), Jigawa (-4.02 per cent) and Kaduna (-3.27 per cent) recorded declines in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.

    The statement stressed, “The National Bureau of Statistics is pleased to announce the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May 2025. Following the completion of the recent rebasing exercise, this report is centred on a new CPI base year of 2024 and a weight reference period of 2023. Hence, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 121.35 in May 2025, and reflects a 1.83-point increase from the preceding month.”

  • Inflation shrinks for second consecutive month

    Inflation shrinks for second consecutive month

    A measured improvement on cost of living, stable naira and reduced energy cost have brought down headline inflation the second consecutive month, The Nation learnt last night.

    Economic intelligence reports by many economic and finance firms surveyed by this newspaper showed that headline inflation dropped by about 50 basis points to some 23.20 per cent last month, its second consecutive decline.

    The inflation rate had improved by 52 basis points to 23.71 per cent in April on the back of reduced food inflation.

    Composite inflation had for the first time after the January 2025 rebasing, risen by 105 basis points to 24.23 per cent in March as against 23.18 per cent recorded in February 2025.

    In January, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) updated the weight and price reference periods in calculation of the CPI to make the inflationary gauge more reflective of changes in consumption patterns and the economy generally. The rebasing not only brought the base year closer to the current period, from 2009 to 2024, it also introduced some critical methodology changes to improve the computation processes.

    READ ALSO; June 12: Remembrance and omissions

    After the rebasing, inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in the pre-rebased period of December last year to 24.48 per cent a month later.

    Ahead of today’s release of the report by the NBS, independent consumer surveys and econometric models indicated that inflationary pressure declined further, with most analysts expecting continuing disinflation over the second half.

    Several economic research and finance firms indicated a positive inflationary outlook, with more than three-quarter of reports showing continuing disinflation.

    Many analysts however warned that the emerging Israeli-Iran conflict poses a major downside risk. Other analysts saw the move by domestic refiner, Dangote Petroleum Refinery, to directly distribute fuels across the nation as support for further disinflation.

    Analysts expected the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain a dovish stance by maintaining the current monetary stance, cutting rate as inflation moderates.

    Bismarck Rewane’s Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) stated that inflation rate could drop as much as 56 basis points to 23.15 per cent in May, citing reduced energy costs and food prices.

    FDC expected other inflation sub-indices to mirror the headline inflation, with food inflation projected to decline to 20.73 per cent in May from 21.26 in April while core inflation is expected to ease to 22.85 per cent from 23.39 per cent.

    “The projected moderation in prices can largely be attributed to stability in the forex market and a reduction in diesel and premium motor spirit (PMS) prices,” FDC stated.

    According to FDC, if the disinflation trend continues into July, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will increase.

    Analysts however cautioned that heightened insecurity in Benue State and flooding in Mokwa, Niger State, both major food-producing states, could dampen the inflation outlook.

    Futureview Group economists warned that inflation could drop by more than 50 basis points to an average of about 23.15 per cent.

    According to analysts, the deceleration was largely attributed to softer PMS pump prices, the statistical impact of a high base from the prior year, and the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

    Analysts however stated that persistent insecurity in key food-producing regions, seasonal pressures from the ongoing planting season, global supply chain disruptions and ongoing global tensions could moderate inflation expectation.

    Managing Director, Arthur Steven Asset Management, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, the decision by Dangote Petroleum Refinery to undertake free distribution of petrol and diesel to large users across the country would further soften inflationary pressure.

    Dangote Refinery yesterday stated that it would, from August 15, 2025, begin the distribution of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and diesel to marketers, petrol dealers, manufacturers, telecoms firms, aviation, and other large users across the country, with free logistics to boost distribution network.

    To ensure smooth take-off of this scheme, the refinery said it has invested in the procurement of 4,000 brand-new Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)-powered tankers. This phase of the programme will continue over an extended timeframe.  The refinery is also investing in CNG stations, commonly referred to as daughter booster stations, supported by a fleet of over 100 CNG tankers across the country to ensure seamless product distribution.

    “This initiative could impact energy cost and drag inflation downward gradually,” Amolegbe said.

     Analysts at Cordros Capital Group stated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN may shift to monetary policy easing by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the latter part of the year.

    “Specifically, we believe that if inflation continues to moderate and global headwinds ease further, the MPC will likely initiate its first interest rate cut at its November policy meeting, reducing the MPR by 100 basis points to 26.50 per cent. This is expected to cause yields to moderate further towards the end of the year.”

    Cordros Capital however differed on the inflation outlook for May, citing elevated import costs and seasonal agricultural pattern.

    “For context, May typically marks the beginning of the planting season in Northern Nigeria, overlapping with the off-season harvest, while in the Southern region, planting activities began earlier in April and are expected to continue through May.

    Given these seasonal patterns, food supply is likely to remain constrained relative to demand in the near term, sustaining upward pressure on food prices. Therefore, headline inflation may likely increase in May, reflecting sustained pressure across both food and core components of the consumer basket,” Cordros Capital stated in its early forecast.

  • Inflation decline down to President’s economic reforms – Minister

    Inflation decline down to President’s economic reforms – Minister

    The  decline of  inflation rate  reported earlier in the week   by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is a direct result  of federal government economic reforms and focused interventions, Information and National Orientation, Alhaji Mohammed Idris, said yesterday.

     He said food prices which are  major drivers of inflation have been brought under control through the administration’s significant interventions, leading to a noticeable reduction in the cost of food items.

    Idris spoke during  the eighth edition of the Ministerial Press Briefing Session.

     His Works counterpart,  Dave Umahi,in an overview of his ministry’s performance, said it  completed 279 road projects, including 19 major capital projects and 260 palliative interventions, within the first   12 months of the administration,while Arts,Culture and Creative Economy Minister Hannatu Musawa,spoke of projected investment of  $100 billion including creation of  about 2.5 million jobs over the next five years.

    Quoting the NBS ,Idris said : “The headline inflation rate for April stood at 23.71 per cent, representing a decrease of 0.52 per cent from the 24.23 per cent recorded in March 2025.

     “Similarly, month-on-month inflation dropped by a notable 2.04 per cent-from 3.90 per cent in March to 1.86 per cent in April.

     “This has not happened by chance. The president’s focused interventions are clearly paying off.

     “The benefits of reform, though gradual, are real and measurable.”

     The minister said government would sustain the momentum of economic improvement by prioritising people-centered policies and promoting shared prosperity for all Nigerians.

     Besides,he said  the administration would sustain the momentum by providing relief and restoring economic stability.

    Umahi: We’ve completed  279 road projects nationwide

     Umahi  described government’s  achievements in the works sector as  signal  of a renewed push to overhaul the country’s transport infrastructure and catalyze economic growth.

     He said reforms  introduced by the ministry have gone a long way in improving project delivery.

    He said:”We’ve changed the approach to contractor mobilisation. Previously, contractors hesitated to accept mobilisation because the Procurement Act states that mobilisation is optional.

    “We now include clear terms in our contracts, if a contractor fails to mobilise within 30 days of signing, the project will be terminated.”

     He noted that this new policy has reduced delays and encouraged more responsible bidding, adding that contractors must now demonstrate sufficient liquidity before being awarded certain projects.

    “We are also classifying contractors to prevent mismatches in project scale and capacity,” he explained.

    Umahi also announced that the President had directed that local contractors and developers be encouraged  to grow the economy, saying, “We can’t continue to use foreign contractors to grow our economy. You go to China, you find out who is working. We have to grow our people’’.

    The  minister revealed that President Tinubu inherited 2,604 major road projects valued at ₦13 trillion when he assumed office in May 2023.

    However, due to policy decisions such as the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, the current value of these projects has surged to nearly ₦20 trillion.

    He explained that the President directed the ministry to re-prioritise and regionalise the existing projects in line with national economic corridors, which he said led to the identification of 440 high-priority projects for review, taking into account new economic realities and inflation in construction material costs.

    “We have completed 19 inherited capital projects across all zones. For example, in Kano, the Yakassi Road and the 105-kilometre Hadejia Road are now in use.

    “In Lagos, we have completed Section I of the Apapa-Oworonshoki-Ojota Expressway, a concrete road serving the Lagos Port, and extended the Third Mainland Bridge with CCTV coverage,” he said.

    Other completed projects include the 84-kilometre Lagos-Badagry Expressway, the reconstructed five-span Artisan Bridge in Enugu, the Angola Bridge, the Shendam Bridge in Plateau State, and the Jimeta Bridge in Adamawa, while cross-border infrastructure, such as the Nigeria–Cameroon Bridge, has also been delivered.

    Continuing, he said:“We’re seeing progress across all regions. For instance, in the South-South, the Lokoja–Benin Road is under construction across three segments handled by different contractors, including BUA and CCC.

    Read Also: Edun, Cardoso: FG targets single digit inflation, more FDI inflows

    “The terrain is challenging, and we have switched to reinforced concrete pavement to ensure durability,” Umahi explained.

    The  minister said work is progressing on the Benin–Auchi Road, which had previously suffered persistent gridlocks due to poor soil conditions.

    One carriageway has been completed and is now in use, while work on the second is ongoing.

    Also in the region, the minister said Section 2 of the East-West Road between Ahoada and Kaima, currently at 75 percent completion, is scheduled for commissioning in December.

    In Rivers State, he said a new reinforced concrete pavement is being used to redesign the Eleme Junction, one of the most congested parts of the Port Harcourt area.

    The Calabar–Itu–Ikot Ekpene Road is also being reconstructed in phases, with major progress recorded by contractors such as HITECH and REYNOLDS, he said.

    In the Southwest, he said the Federal Government has cleared 38.3 kilometres of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, with the first 10 kilometres almost completed.

    Umahi also confirmed that Section I of the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway, which was inherited by the current administration, has been completed, as well as major sections of the Seme–Badagry evacuation corridor.

    The Northwest, according to the minister, has also witnessed significant activity, Umahi said, citing the Abuja– Kaduna–Zaria–Kano Road is being reconstructed in phases.

    Sections 1 and 3, covering 118 kilometres, have been awarded for ₦252 billion, with solar-powered streetlights installed along the corridor, he said, adding that about five kilometres of rigid pavement are already in use.

    2.5m jobs coming in Arts, Culture  sector

    Musawa said  her ministry was collaborating with Creative Park Limited to establish in Abuja  Africa’s first hub to be called the Abuja Creative City.

    It is planned to occupy 26 hectares of land in the Idu Industrial Area.

    Also on the cards is the Nigerian Academy of Cultural Studies (NACUS),an initiative of  the National Institute for Cultural Orientation (NICO).

    It will have  four strategic campuses in Ogbomoso, Calabar, Lagos, and Abuja, offering specialised cultural education programs.

    Others include Renewed Hope Cultural Project’s infrastructure development, encompassing  restoration and conservation of historical sites, monuments, palaces, artifacts, and natural attractions, and the establishment of Renewed Hope Cultural Villages across all states of the federation, including the FCT as well as the renovation of the country’s national museums.

    The ministry, according to her, is also  partnering  with AFREXIM Bank for a $200 million funding commitment; Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) for asset monetization; Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) for tax framework development; and State Governments, Traditional Institutions, and Nigerian Universities for cultural preservation and development projects.

    She said:“The creative economy in Nigeria has long been a vibrant and resilient sector that has thrived independently without adequate government support. With the establishment of this Ministry by the present administration, it is clear that a new era has dawned. The Ministry therefore operates as a catalyst for innovation, a driver of growth, and a champion for the empowerment of Nigeria’s extraordinarily diverse and talented cultural and creative sector.

    “As part of its D30 data initiative, the Ministry is conducting a mapping exercise to offer a data-informed foundation for target setting, investment prioritization, and programme design across Nigeria’s creative economy. This evidence-based approach is fundamental to our strategic planning and decision-making processes.

    “We have identified five segments in the value chain, including Production, Marketing and Sales. Based on our draft report, we project that we will create over 500,000 new jobs in the sector by 2030.

    “Our mapping indicates that this sector will continue to thrive through self-employment and micro-enterprise pathways, with regional hubs like Edo, Delta, and Plateau playing key roles alongside Lagos. We are currently going through a validation process and should formally publish the mapping results in early June. These figures are not merely statistics; they represent real opportunities for Nigerian youth, women, and communities across our nation. They demonstrate the transformative potential of our creative industries when properly supported and strategically developed.”

  • Reduced cost of food drops inflation to 23.71%

    Reduced cost of food drops inflation to 23.71%

    • Experts on cautious optimism

    The average cost of living has improved over the recent period as reduction in prices of food items and stable energy pushed inflation rate down by 52 basis points to 23.71 per cent.

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing that headline inflation rate dropped from 24.23 per cent in March 2025 to 23.71 per cent in April 2025. On a month-on-month basis, inflation also declined to 1.86 per cent in April, compared with 3.90 per cent recorded in March.

    The decline in inflation rate was driven by board-based decrease in prices of food items and energy.

    Food inflation slowed by 53 basis points from 21.79 per cent in March 2025 to 21.26 per cent in April 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation eased by 12 basis points from 2.18 per cent to 2.06 per cent.

    Core inflation-which included all items excluding farm produce and energy, also declined by 105 basis points from 24.43 per cent in March 2025 to 23.39 per cent in April 2025. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation dropped by 239 basis points from 3.73 per cent in March 2025 to 1.34 per cent in April 2025.

    The decline in inflation was attributed to reduction in average prices of food items including maize flour, wheat grain, okro dried, yam flour, soya beans, rice, bambara beans and brown beans among others.

    Experts remained cautious on the outlook for inflation citing elevated concerns around continuous stability in food prices, foreign exchange and energy supply.

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    Managing Director, Arthur Steven Asset Management, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, said while the decline in inflation rate is a welcome relief, there are still concerns about stability of the trend.

    “It’s clear we do not have a trend in term of general direction of the rate yet as it has been fluctuating up and down in the last four months. This could be the reason why the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not yet adjusted its stance regarding monetary policy for now. We will need to see consistent drop in rates over the next few months before citizens can start heaving a sign of relief,” Amolegbe said.

    Analysts at SCM Capital said the headline inflation is expected to ease slightly in May 2025, supported by seasonal food supply improvements and base effects.

    “Although insecurity and foreign exchange (forex) volatility concern persists, moderating exchange rate pressure and improving economic activity offer some relief. Month-on-month inflation may rise modestly, but year-on-year figures are likely to continue trending downward.

    “The declining inflation, easing forex strain, and broader macroeconomic gains strengthen expectations that the CBN may soften its hawkish stance and adjust monetary policy parameters in third quarter 2025,” SCM Capital stated.

  • Rising cost of living pushes inflation to 24.23%

    Rising cost of living pushes inflation to 24.23%

    Inflationary pressure has reappeared as Nigerians grapple with increases in average costs of basic food items and energy.

    For the first time after the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline inflation spiked in March to 24.23 per cent –  105 basis points above the 23.18 per cent recorded in the previous month.

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday indicated that the rate of increase in the average price level was higher in March than the level in February.

    In January, the NBS updated the weight and price reference periods in calculation of the CPI to make the inflationary gauge more reflective of changes in consumption patterns and the economy generally.

    The rebasing did not only brought the base year closer to the current period from 2009 to 2024, it also introduced some critical methodology changes to improve the computation processes.

    After the rebasing, inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in the pre-rebased period of December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025. It dropped further to 23.18 per cent in February.

    In its latest report, NBS recorded 186 basis points changes between the monthly inflation rate, with the month-on-month rate rising from 2.04 per cent in February to 3.90 per cent in March.

    The NBS attributed the spike to the rise in costs of food and alcoholic beverages, fuels and electricity, among other items.

    Analysts at CardinalStone said the resurgence was due to renewed foreign exchange (forex) pressures amid heightened global risk-off sentiment.

    They pointed at foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) outflows and increased dollar demand, which saw naira dropping by 2.4 per cent in March.

    Read Also: Drop in food, gas costs reduces inflation to 23.18%

    Experts also cited increase in price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol, following the temporary suspension of the naira-for-crude swap arrangement.

    Food inflation rate stood at 21.79 per cent in March 2025. The composite food index decreased to 21.79 per cent from 23.51 per cent.

    Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce prices and energy, rose to 24.43 per cent from 23.01 per cent.

    Specifically, the month-on-month food inflation rose by 50 basis points from 1.67 per cent in February to 2.18 per cent in March.

    The NBS attributed the increase in food inflation to increases in the average prices of basic food items including ginger, garri, broken rice, honey, crabs, potatoes, plantain flour, periwinkle and pepper amongst others.

    On a state-by-state basis, food inflation was higher in Oyo with 34.41 per cent; Kaduna (31.14 per cent) and Kebbi (30.85 per cent).

    On the other side, the 9.61 per cent recorded by Bayelsa; Adamawa (12.41 per cent) and Akwa Ibom (12.60 per cent), were the lowest inflation rates.

    Analysts expressed concerns that the resurgent inflationary pressure might lead to renewed tightening stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, had at the end of the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in 2025, reiterated the apex bank’s commitment to orthodox monetary policies, noting that the apex bank’s stance will be reflective of the inflationary trend.

    With inflation rate dropping in February, the MPC had decided to maintain all key monetary policy parameters, including the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.50 per cent, the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 50.00 per cent for Deposit Money Banks and 16.00 per cent for Merchant Banks, and the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.

    Clarifying the impact of the rebased CPI, Cardoso had explained that the lower inflation figure should not be misinterpreted.

    He underlined the need to analyse more data before drawing comparisons, noting that the CBN is currently assessing the figures and will provide further guidance in due course.

    The CBN boss stressed the critical importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities in sustaining recent economic improvements.

    Addressing concerns about the impact of elevated borrowing costs on economic growth, the CBN governor assured that the apex bank’s primary objective is to stabilize the foreign exchange and financial markets.

    He expressed confidence that such stability would attract increased foreign investments, stimulating the much-needed economic growth.

    Cardoso also highlighted the competitiveness of the Nigerian currency, which has spurred growing interest from international investors.

  • Drop in food, gas costs reduces inflation to 23.18%

    Drop in food, gas costs reduces inflation to 23.18%

    Average cost of living improved further as declining food prices and costs of logistics pushed inflation rate lower at 23.18 per cent.

    Latest inflation report released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that headline inflation rate dropped by 130 basis points from 24.48 per cent in January to 23.18 per cent in February.

    The report attributed the decline in headline inflationary pressures to notable reductions in prices of general staples among others.

    According to the report,  compared to the month of January, there was an observed decline in the average prices of food items like yam tuber, potatoes, soya beans, flour of maize and cornmeal, cassava and dried bambara beans among others.

    The latest report is the second release after the NBS rebased the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and realigned its constituents to reflect historical changes in the economy. Prior to the rebasing, inflation had stood at 34.80 per cent in December 2024.

    Experts had commended the rebasing given changes in consumption patterns, as the new methodology and composition were seen as more reflective of the economic dynamics.

    The latest report also underlined a general improvement in living cost, with month-on-month inflation rate declining from 10.68 per cent in January to 2.04 per cent in February.

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    The report highlighted that on  a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 8.52 per cent lower than 31.70 per cent recorded in February 2024, though with a different base year.

    A breakdown showed  that while food and non- alcoholic contributed  0.82 per cent to the headline inflation, in the month under review, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 0.22 per cent to it.

    The NBS stated that the percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending February over the average for the previous twelve-month period was 30.09 per cent showing 3.91 per cent points increase compared to 26.18 per cent recorded in February 2024.

    On urban inflation, NBS stated that on a year-on-year, in February, the Urban inflation rate was 25.15 per cent, 8.51 per cent points lower to 33.66 per cent recorded in February 2024.

    It said on a month-on-month basis, the Urban inflation rate was 2.40 per cent in February.

    The report added that the corresponding 12-month average for the Urban inflation rate was 32.22 per cent in February. This was 4.28 per cent points higher compared to the 27.93 per cent reported in February 2024.

    On rural inflation, NBS said the rural inflation rate in February was 19.89 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

  • BREAKING: Inflation drops to 23.18 per cent in February – NBS

    BREAKING: Inflation drops to 23.18 per cent in February – NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday said headline inflation eased from 24.48 per cent in January 2025 to 23.18 per cent in February 2025.

    Its document titled Consumer Price Index (CPI) February 2025, which made this known, added that the headline inflation showed a decrease of 1.30 per cent compared to the January 2025 headline inflation.

    NBS said, “In February 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 23.18% relative to the January 2025 headline inflation rate of 24.48%.

    “Looking at the movement, the February 2025 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.30% compared to the January 2025 Headline inflation rate.”

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    The report also said on a year-on-year basis, the Headline inflation rate was 8.52% lower than the rate recorded in February 2024 (31.70%). 

    It further noted that this shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in February 

    2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., February 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.

    NBS also said on a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in February 2025 stood at 2.04%. 

    Details shortly…

  • Inflation rate reduces to 24.48 per cent in January

    Inflation rate reduces to 24.48 per cent in January

    Inflation reduced to 24.48 per cent in January 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    The Statistician of the Federation and the CEO of NBS, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, made this known in a briefing in Abuja on Tuesday.

    He also said food inflation was 26.08 per cent year-on-year.

    According to him, the new figure was as result of the rebasing of Nigeria’s inflation basket to keep it updated to international standard.

    He recalled that the country last rebased its inflation in 2009, thus using prices of goods prominent during the period.

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    He said this means the figure is outdated as the new rebasing has dumped some of the products and brought in new ones while maintaining those that are still relevant.

    Adeniran said the rebasing process also allows Statistical Offices to introduce methodological enhancements to their computation procedures and align with global best practices. 

    Under this process, according to him, NBS is not only bringing the base year closer to the current period from 2009 to 2024 “but we have also introduced some critical methodology changes to improve the computation processes and quality of the estimates.

    “Under the CPI, important enhancements have been made to the methodology. Some of the improvements include the transition to the latest version of the classification method, the Classification of Individual Consumption.”