Is there a link between the escalating insecurity in the country and the quest by politicians for power? This question has been seeking for answers since the reign of terror was officially unleashed in the country about 15 years ago.
It featured prominently when Boko Haram insurgency reared its ugly head and took monstrous dimensions as the 2015 general elections approached. It is also being talked about even in hushed tones with the rising security challenges across the country as the momentum of the 2027 elections gathers.
The suicide bomb attacks at St Theresa’s Catholic Church, Madalla and the United Nations building in Abuja and other security infractions that peaked as the 2015 elections drew closer had raised suspicion as to whether a nexus existed between these events. But by far, the abduction of 276 Chibok Secondary School girls in Borno State, the circumstances surrounding it as well as the blame game it engendered were issues that accentuated this suspicion further.
Attempts by the then government of Goodluck Jonathan to tame the monster curiously generated so much opposition and vile allegations from the north. The acerbic letter written by the then governor of Adamawa State, Muritala Nyako in which he bandied wild allegations including an attempt to depopulate the north as the reasons for inventing the Boko Haram ‘phantom’ cannot be forgotten in a hurry.
That letter injected so much complications to the Jonathan administration’s resolve to wage a decisive war against the insurgents such that today, Boko Haram has not only remained active and strong, but metamorphosed into some splinter groups with vague ideological leanings.
The Islamic State for West Africa Province (ISWAP), an offshoot of Boko Haram reported to have acted as an umbrella organisation for Islamic State (IS) factions in West Africa including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS-GS) has been involved in terror attacks in the country. It largely operates in the northeast where it has been engaging the military is serious fight.
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The federal government blamed ISWAP for the bloody Catholic Church suicide bombings in Owo, Ondo State. The military are reported to have thwarted their plans to establish bases in Plateau and Bauchi states.
There is also the Ansaru terror group said to be active in the northwest and north-central where bandits and kidnappers add to the reign of terror. Ansaru is said to be a faction of Boko Haram that rejected the leadership of Abubakar Shekau after the death of Yusuf, the founder of Boko Haram.
Towards the end of last year, a new terror group the Lukarawa emerged in the forests of Sokoto and Kebbi states. The group which is said to have affiliates in Mali and Niger was said to have been initially invited by locals in those states for protection against attacks by bandits from Zamfara State. But it turned into a Frankenstein monster when they began to haunt the very communities they were engaged to protect.
The federal government has since declared the Lukarawa a terrorist organisation following its atrocious activities in some states of the northwest. In the list of terror organisations is yet, another called the Mahmuda. It is said to be a breakaway faction of Boko Haram with suspected links to extremist cells in Niger and Mali.
The group last week, killed 15 vigilantes and villagers in an attack on Kemaanji, a community in Kaiama Local Government Area of Kwara State. Mahmuda is reputed to have been carrying out attacks including killings and kidnapping in rural communities around the Kainji Lake National Park which spans parts of Kwara and Niger states. It also attacked some communities in Baruten LGA of Kwara including taking control over areas within the Babana and Wawa districts of Borgu LGA in Niger State. Mahmuda is the latest addition to terrorist organisations operating in the country.
It is significant to note that perhaps, apart from the Lukarawa terrorist group, the rest have their roots in Boko Haram. From one terror group, the country is now contending with five. This does not include such other terrorist groups as militia herdsmen, bandits and sundry criminal kidnappers.
In the last two weeks or so, militia herdsmen unleashed a reign of terror in Plateau and Benue states leaving in their trail humongous destruction in human lives and property. Plateau alone had 52 innocent people murdered in their homes with about 2000 others displaced in the Bokkos Local Government Area of the state. The well-coordinated attacks saw no less than 20 communities in the LGA attacked by the terrorist herdsmen.
Benue State also lost 51 people when killer herdsmen attacked the Logo and Gbagir communities in Ukum Local Government Area of the state penultimate week. The attacks followed the pattern of previous killings that led to the displacement of people from their ancestral homes. Ironically, the two states in the northcentral were the epicentre of constant killings and despoliation of local communities before the 2015 general elections.
So, the attacks by the militia herdsmen are not entirely new. But why they peak each time national elections draw closer must worry all those genuinely committed to the peace, progress and development of this country. Mass abductions of secondary school girls including that of Dapchi and their suspicious return did a lot to inject political angle to the insecurity in the northeast then.
Insecurity was a major campaign programme of Muhammadu Buhari as the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). It can be argued that it played a significant role in the swing of votes against Jonathan especially in the north. Buhari had promised to tame insecurity within a few months of assuming power.
After about six months in office, he gleefully announced to the nation that his regime had significantly diminished Boko Haram. According to him, Boko Haram was so degraded that it can no longer muster the capacity to mount serious onslaught against military formations.
But events were soon to put a lie to that claim. Though the military has been fighting hard to contain the spread of Boko Haram, the reality is that it is far from being defeated. Series of events since Buhari’s claim of its degradation in December 2015 bear eloquent testimony to this. Not only there have been complaints of their control of some local governments, they have continued to engage our armed forces in deadly combats. Their attacks have resonated in the last couple of weeks.
Again, its splinter groups continue to terrorise parts of the country. Perhaps, Boko Haram was able to give birth to splinter groups and spread because of the dissonance between and among politicians regarding what interests it really represented when it emerged in the Nigerian scene. Then Jonathan, a southerner was in power and the north was hell-bent in capturing political power from him.
It was a verity of war situation and all seemed fair in that encounter. Then also, his attempt to raise the price of petrol was massively resisted through mass protests and arguments that today betray the true intentions of their canvassers. Ironically, such disagreements threw spanners in the wheels of a collective fight against the threat of terror and economic progress.
President Bola Tinubu is about to enter the second lap of his four-year tenure and election manoeuvres are about gaining considerable momentum. He is a southerner just like Jonathan. The question the upsurge in insecurity raises is whether history is about to repeat itself? In other words, is there any connection between the rise in insecurity in the country and the coming elections? Is insecurity going to play a role in the unfolding political campaigns as the jostle for the 2027 elections heats up?
The Director General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s position on this could be helpful. She had at the 2024 Annual General Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association said the country’s insecurity is weaponized by politicians for political and selfish reasons.
“We have politicians who believe that the best way to make their opponents look bad is to instigate insecurity, making it look like they can’t govern, regardless of whether this leads to loss of lives and property of innocent Nigerians” she had said.
This may well be the reason insecurity peaks each time general elections drew nearer especially with a southerner in the saddle. The solution to the festering insecurity in the country may in part, be located in this angle.
