Tag: Jega

It would appear the controversy trailing the conduct of the 2015 elections will have no end. And no end seems in sight as its eventual outcome might present more challenges than what we are currently facing.

Two basic considerations inform this seemingly damning conclusion. The first relates to the history of elections on these shores. Even at the best of times, hardly had there been elections whose outcome was not highly disputed.

Our politicians find it difficult to accept defeat even when it is clear they had very slim chances. Matters are not helped by glaring cases of malpractices, irregularities and shortcomings that have become a recurring decimal in our electoral process. All these combine to whittle down the confidence of the people in the credibility of elections.

The cycle of violence which sometimes leads to the destruction of lives and property in some volatile sections of the country is a logical consequence of loss of confidence in the electoral process. That feeling is still much with us.

The second reason is that this election comes with very peculiar challenges. It is true that election periods by their very nature, are very trying times. But it is also no less correct to posit that the coming elections are potentially very explosive. The stakes are very high and no group will let go. There are genuine fears that its outcome could make or mar the country as the issues involved are at the very heart of our corporate existence.

That perhaps, accounts for the unending controversy that has dogged the preparations of the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC since the countdown to the elections commenced. The focus has been on the preparedness and credibility of INEC to conduct generally acceptable elections. The shoddy distribution of the Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVC’s) appears to have provided the platform for the plethora of attacks and criticisms that have trailed INEC’s activities in the last couple of months. The commission did not help matters when it claimed it was fully prepared to conduct the election in February as previously scheduled. A Council of State meeting was convened in which its Chairman Attahiru Jega insisted the commission was ready to go ahead with the polls.

But Jega was later to inform the nation that though he was very ready for the election, he had to postpone it on the advice of Service Chiefs who said they had a major operation in the north-east that will not allow them offer the needed assistance to the body were the elections to proceed as scheduled. Going by the way Jega spoke, he left no one in doubt that he was only succumbing to security pressure by deferring the elections. In effect, he had a mission to exculpate the electoral body from any complicity in the events leading to that postponement.

Not unexpectedly, the Jonathan administration was heavily lampooned for inadvertently simulating the chain of events that led to that pass. This was evident in the reactions of the international community and civil society groups among others.

No less a person than former president Olusegun Obasanjo had in reaction, alleged that the postponement was to enable Jonathan buy time so as to win the election by hook and crook. He drew parallels with events in Cote d’voire when Laurent Gbagbo, faced with stiff opposition had to postpone elections until he was sure he was going to win. Such have been the level of suspicion and antagonism that followed the postponement.

Curiously, events since then have been at variance with the electoral body’s claim that it was really prepared to go on with the election. On the contrary, the challenges of the poor distribution of the PVC’s have since put a lie to Jega’s claim that he was ready for the elections. At the time the Council of State met, the rate of collection was put at less then 40 per cent. Jonathan said that much in his last Media interview.

If that was not enough evidence, the admission by Jega at the floor of the senate a week after the postponement that over one million PVCs were yet to be printed in far away China, is all one needed to substantiate the position.

Since then, the date of collection has been shifted thrice and will now end six days to the presidential and national assembly elections.

Now, if INEC was prepared for the elections as Jega claimed, how do we reconcile these developments? Could the body have gone ahead to conduct a free, fair and flawless election when millions of Nigerians stood to be disenfranchised? And what are the likely consequences of millions of registered voters denied their inalienable right to vote due to no fault of theirs. These are the moot questions. And they are at the center of the increasing suspicion trailing INEC’s activities.

There is also the issue of card readers- an innovation the commission said is designed to increase the credibility of the election outcome. The device was just tested last week- a clear one month after the postponement of the elections. The question is whether the commission intended to use that device for the postponed elections? If the answer is in the affirmative, then it further complicates the situation. Some of the challenges that have just been dictated could have created problems that would detract substantially from the credibility of that election. These are some of the dangers that faced INEC if that election had proceeded as scheduled. Some of these issues topped the grouse of the PDP Governors’ Forum that met last week in Lagos. They seemed to have struck the right chord when they asked “Nigerians to reconcile the purported readiness of INEC for the February 14, elections with the testing of card readers more than a month after the postponement”

This observation should not be ignored especially given the bad blood the postponement generated. The electoral body will regain the confidence of Nigerians by coming public on why it is so. It also has a responsibility to explain why it has continued to postpone the collection date for the PVC’s nearly five weeks after the election was rescheduled. This is necessary for Jega to regain the confidence of the electorate. The imperative of confidence building in ensuring the overall success of any election can only be discounted at a grave risk.

Undoubtedly, Jega faces a big burden in the current elections. The challenges of the PVC’s have been considerably reduced by the postponement. He has tested the card readers with varying degrees of success. The matter is not all about the INEC’s right to deploy the device but how to ensure its efficacy during elections. If the electoral body feels sufficiently satisfied that the device will work and produce the desired result, it could go ahead and deploy them.

But it stands the risk of being discredited if there is system failure either on account of network problems or other extraneous variables. These are some of the issues. It is a calculated risk. Jega and his group should be prepared to face the verdict of history for any acts of omission or commission. That appears to be the message the PDP governors are sending across.

The buck stops at Jega’s table. He will rise and fall together with what he decides to do. But rational calculations instruct that faced with uncertain circumstances, the right option is to minimize ones losses in the event of the worst outcome. It is akin to laying landmines for the elections to introduce innovations whose reliability and efficacy cannot be guaranteed especially when prior suspicion was raised.