The stage is set for the governorship polls in Ekiti and Osun states. Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi and his Osun State counterpart, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, are seeking second term on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Their challengers are Mr Ayo Fayose and Senator Iyiola Omisore, who are running on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI and Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examine their chances at the polls.
EKITI and Osun states are warm-ing up for governorship elec-tions.
On June 21, voters would troop out in Ekiti for the exercise. On August 9, the people of Osun would have another opportunity to elect a governor.
The two elections are a prelude to the next year’s general elections.
In the Southwest geo-political zone, three parties are on the track. They are the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).
Going by contemporary political history of Ekiti State, Governor Kayode Fayemi faces a herculean task in the electoral contest. For one reason or the other, successive governors in the state were not able to secure a second term. So, the question on the lips of many observers is: Can Dr. Fayemi break the second term jinx?
The PDP wants to regain control of the two states, where it was dislodged four years ago. The drafting of Mr Ayo Fayose into the race in Ekiti, eight years after he was impeached under controversial circumstances, to face Fayemi has been greeted with mixed feelings. For some observers, it suggests that the PDP is desperate to stage a comeback. This is based on Fayose’s antecedents in Ekiti politics.
For others, it indicates that Fayose is in the race to serve as a spoiler for Fayemi by collaborating with the candidate of the Labour Party, Opeyemi Bamidele. If this happens, analysts reckone the governor must put in extra effort to retain his seat.
Fayose’s tenure in office as governor was largely bedeviled by controversies, which ultimately culminated in his ouster through impeachment. The former governor, however, maintains that it was former President Olusegun Obasanjo who masterminded his removal. Analysts say youthful exuberance and arrogance were his greatest undoing. Fayose saw himself above others and talked down on power brokers, including the Ado-Ekiti monarch, it was said. As a result, he stepped on toes and cared less about what the victims felt about it.
Those conversant with Ekiti politics say Fayose is a cat with nine lives. “He is a man who is used to pulling surprises; he has the ability to survive under the most severe and adverse conditions,” one of such observers noted. For instance, in 2003, when he entered the race to unseat Otunba Adeniyi Adebayo of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), no one gave him a chance. He was widely regarded as a greenhorn, who was pitched against a party that literarily had the entire Southwest under its firm grip. But, Fayose surprised everyone, when he successfully unseated Adebayo.
But, how far Fayose can go in securing another four-year mandate is another matter. He was declared winner of the primary election, amidst protests from other aspirants, who boycotted the poll, based on the allegation that the leadership of the party had skewed the process to favour Fayose. Such aggrieved PDP members have vowed to stop him.
A member of the PDP said: “I’m a card carrying member of PDP and I can tell you with all sense of responsibility that with Fayose, we would not even come third in Ekiti election. This is a state that is well enlightened and would never tolerate a Fayose because of his antecedents during his first term.”
He added: “All my friends working for Fayemi popped Champagne when they received the announcement of Fayose’s candidacy,” the source who pleaded for anonymity said.
The permutation of close watchers of Southwest politics is that there may be more to the emergence of Fayose in Ekiti and Omisore in Osun than meets the eye. Against the backdrop of what played out in Ondo and Anambra states, where the PDP candidates played the spoiler roles, they say a similar game plan may be in the offing in Ekiti and Osun. During the Anambra governorship election, for instance, Tony Nwoye, who was the PDP candidate, did not get adequate support to guarantee his electoral success from his party. The same fate befell Olushola Oke in Ondo State. Funds needed to prosecute the election did not come to them on time. In the two states, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the LP won the elections with alleged tacit support from the PDP and the Federal Government.
Ahead of 2015 general elections, indications are that the PDP is strategising to reclaim the Southwest from the APC. It was learnt that President Goodluck Jonathan had commissioned the LP to dislodge the APC in the region. LP, according to sources, is to infiltrate the APC and win some of its disenchanted members to the LP, particularly after primaries. Governor Olusegun Mimiko, the only LP governor, it was said, was to join the ruling PDP early this year, but has changed his mind. There are strong indications that under the new plan, he is to stay put in the LP and extend the party’s tentacles to other states in the Southwest.
In Ekiti, a member of the House of Representatives, Opeyemi Bamidele, has dumped the APC for the LP, where he has picked the governorship ticket to run against Fayemi . In Osun State, Omisore was reportedly favoured by the LP to run for the governorship on its platform. Though Omisore is running on the platform of the PDP, he was said to be in alliance Dr Olusegun Mimiko, with the Ondo State governor, who has been a long term friend of the former since their university days.
Indeed, it is believed that what is happening in Ekiti and Osun is part of the party’s build up towards the 2015 general elections.
In Ogun, the President has picked former governor Gbenga Daniel, who has already defected to the LP with his supporters as the arrow head to present a formidable candidate against the APC Governor, Ibikunle Amosun, in 2015 general elections. In Oyo State, the LP has been working with the opposition Accord Party (AP) led by Senator Rasheed Ladoja to stop the re-election of Governor Abiola Ajimobi in 2015.
A source disclosed that the alternative plan put in place by the President’s strategists is that, where a consensus candidate cannot be agreed upon within the PDP, the platform of the LP would come in as a back-up. In this wise, the PDP and the LP have a working agreement for the LP to declare their support for the PDP when election comes. The source added that, in return for the working relationship, the Presidency would bank roll LP activities in the zone to ensure that the party gives the APC a run for its money.
But, a social critic, Bernard Briggs, described the PDP’s plan to regain power in the Southwest as wishful thinking. According to him, no amount of money PDP would make the it gain power. Briggs said the PDP has never had any stronghold in the Southwest. “What happened in 2003 was that Obasanjo as President used the federal might to rig the election, so that, he, as the President, could have a political base,” he added.
Against this background, what really is the PDP up to in the Southwest, particularly in Ekiti and Osun states? The party is believed to be facing a crisis of credibility in the Southwest for two reasons. One: its performance while it was at the helm of affairs in the region is being called to question by the ruling party in the region. Secondly, the region appears to be marginalised, in terms of the distribution of elective offices and federal appointments. Besides, former President Olusegun Obasasnjo and his followers in the region do not belong to the mainstream of the party.
Briggs said the performance of the APC governors has made the region a no-go area for any other party. In Lagos, Ogun, Oyo to Osun and Ekiti, the governors have raised the bar of governance in this country. “You need to visit these states for you to appreciate the superlative performances of these progressive governors,” he said, adding: “What has PDP governors done in their state that would attract the Yoruba, the most enlightened set of people in the country to dump APC? What has the Jonathan administration achieved in the last six years to sell the PDP in the Southwest? He said the outcome of the 2015 general elections would be decided by the performance of the political parties and not the amount of money doled out to bribe people. “Nigerians are wiser now. If you give them money or bags of rice, they will take and vote according to their conscience,” he added.
However, former Southwest PDP Caretaker Committee Chairman Chief Ishola Filani said the party can win elections in the zone in 2015, provided it takes advantage of the situation on ground. He said: “we are greater in population than the opposition parties put together. Our problem has been our inability to harness our strength and counter the propaganda of the opposition.” Filani said that, with the leadership restructuring, proper mobilisation and propaganda machinery that would match that of the APC, the party would capture the Southwest.
“The President’s performance is a plus for us in the Southwest. He is doing well. He is a humble and determined person, who does not believe in flamboyance. That is why some people are under assessing him. But, when you look at what he has been able to achieve and his developmental programmes in education, agriculture, aviation and creation of job opportunities, you would realise that President Jonathan is a very good leader.
A student activist, Mr. Lanre Adisa, disagreed with Filani’s postulation. He said:” PDP’s plan to reclaim the Southwest in 2015 is a mirage. What did the party achieve in the zone when it was in power for eight years? It was an era of retrogression. No sensible person in the Southwest would pray for a return of the dark era.
“PDP never had a foothold in the Southwest. The elections it claimed to have won in 2003 and 2007 were shamelessly rigged in connivance with the electoral commission under the supervision of Professor Maurice Iwu. That was why the PDP’s victory didn’t last. The party stole the peoples mandate, which it relinquished when it’s time was up.
Fayemi kicked-off his re-election campaign before a mammoth crowd in Ado Ekiti two weeks ago. At the rally, he canvassed for the support of the people based on his achievements in the infrastructural development, education, healthcare and youth empowerment. In terms of performance, the governor said he towers above his rivals in other parties. Alluding to the antecedents of his major opponent, Fayemi noted that he has brought transparency and accountability to governance adding, that no official of his administration has been summoned by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, (EFCC).
He said: “The advantage I am having is that I am running on record and there are people who will promise heaven and earth but I can tell you what I have done in education and how I have banished poverty among our elderly people.” The governor added: “I can tell you what I have done in infrastructure, how we have transformed Ikogosi Warm Spring to an international tourist centre, how we have empowered our women, how we have revived our industries.” Fayemi called on the people of Ekiti to be mindful of where they were coming from, adding: “We don’t want to return to the dark days of one week, one trouble.”
But, the PDP is not impressed by Fayemi’s track record. The party insists that, contrary to the impression being created in the media, the administration has not really impacted positively on the lives of Ekiti people. “The government of Kayode Fayemi has incurred a huge debt that the state may not be able to repay in the nearest future because the funds were used for very wasteful and unnecessary projects like building a new Government House. They are not revenue-yielding projects that would help to repay the debts and ultimately impact on the lives of the people,” said PDP supporter.
However, the PDP is in crisis in Ekiti and Osun. Their governorship primaries were rancorous.
The internal wrangling in the party may mar its chances at the polls. The 13 aggrieved governorship aspirants in Ekiti, have told the party’s national leadership to forget about reclaiming the state, since it has decided to ratify the election of Fayose as its candidate. Tunji Olatunde, the campaign manager of one of the aspirants, Senator Gbenga Aluko, said categorically that “the PDP cannot win Ekiti State with Fayose and I am sure they know it”.
Many believe that the LP candidate and member of the House of Representatives, Bamidele, is also a factor.
But one thing that will work in Fayemi’s favour is the incumbency factor. A stakeholder, Jegede Akano, said: “The devil you know is better than the angel you do not know. The governor has the opportunity to say this is what I have done in the state, which others do not have. This goes to say that Fayemi has better chances.” At the last APC membership registration in Ekiti State, over 200,000 members were said to have been registered. Meanwhile, the total number of registered voters in Ekiti is 649,000. The result of the last election in the state put the total numbers of votes polled by the two leading candidates in excess of 200,000. If the APC membership registration figure is anything to go by, it would not be arithmetically wrong, to place the chances of the governor high.
Traditionally, the Southwest is the base of the progressives. Right from the First Republic the politics of the region was dominated by the Action Group (AG) founded by the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a party that prided itself of good welfare pro-grammes, including free education and free medical service. Analysts contend that it was the welfare programme of the AG, which transformed the region. It also made the people of the Southwest to embrace the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) led by Chief Awolowo in the Second Republic. UPN won election in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ondo and even Bendel states. The four cardinal programmes of UPN – free education at all levels, free medical service, gainful employment and rural integration development – became household words in the region while its implementation endeared the people to the part leadership.
In the aborted Third Republic, the Yoruba pitched their tent with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), whose manifesto was identical with Awolowo’s philosophy. It was not surprising therefore, that, in 1999, when the military lifted ban on politics, the Yoruba embraced the Alliance for Democracy (AD) because its ideology was similar to ideology of the AG, the UPN and the SDP. Thus, in 1999, the AD swept the polls in the Southwest.
But, in 2003, the PDP hijacked power in the zone, using the federal might. Only Lagos State survived the onlaught. The AD chieftains claimed that the polls were rigged in Ogun, Oyo. Ondo, Osun and Ekiti states.
In 2007, the Action Congress (AC), which later became the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), won elections in Lagos, Osun and Ekiti states. But, victory was alloted to the PDP. In 2010, the stolen mandates were retrieved from the interlopers.
Also, in 2011, the ACN, which has now transformed into the APC, won the governorship pols in Oyo and Ogun states.
