Are you surprised by the agitation for Biafra which is looking more “real” now than ever? Are you surprised about the “Kaduna Declaration” which gave Nigerians of Igbo extractions a deadline of October 1 2017 to leave the north? Do you wonder why the “Northern youth” chose the October 1 date, our Independence Day anniversary, for the “eviction” order? Better still, have you wondered why there seem to be challenges all over the world?
If you’re like this writer who keeps wondering about such things then you need to read “The Fix: How Nations Survive and Thrive in a World in Decline” by Jonathan Tepperman. The timing of this 307 page book could not be better. Critical thinking is needed now than ever. No one appears to agree on fundamental ideas about governing anymore. “Biafrans” say their problem is the “North” so they want out; the north says understand us, others say it is “restructuring,” still others say its true federalism. Sometimes, we’re not even sure what we’re arguing about.
The grand ideological debates of the 20th and early 21st centuries – capitalism versus socialism, democracy versus authoritarianism etc – today seem too broad, tired and pointless, and little has come along to replace them. Where there are replacements, it is often hate speech, agitations and ethnic tensions. Globalization, the economic paradigm of our era, has become an epithet in the mouths of insurgent politicians exploiting middle-class discontent on both the right and left.
The people in power, especially the so-called establishment, still seem surprised by the magnitude of the backlash – by Biafra, by Trump, by Brexit, by the deepening anger – and confused about how to respond. And with no one pointing a way through the labyrinth of confusion make situations even dare. Worse still, democracy – seen as the “best” system of governance – itself has seemed to curdle with people yearning for alternatives. But what alternative is the dilemma
We are in other words utterly adrift, ideologically speaking. It’s hardly a surprise the vacuum of ideas is being filled, in the political arena, by atavistic impulses like nationalism, racism and xenophobia. Jonathan Tepperman’s answer to this “gathering darkness,” as he calls it, is to take a giant step back from the larger, paralyzed debate.
In “The Fix,” Tepperman sets aside ‘Big Think’ in favour of small think: practical, microcosmic solutions to big problems in sometimes surprising places. From Brazil to Botswana, Indonesia to New York City Tepperman offers what he calls “a data-driven case for optimism” at a time when “most of us have glumly concluded that our governments are broken and our domestic and international problems are insurmountable.”
The book identifies “the Terrible Ten” and particularly difficult problems, including inequality, immigration, civil war, corruption, Islamic extremism, the resource curse, energy, the middle-income trap (the difficulty countries have in making the leap from developmental success to wealthy-nation status) and two kinds of political gridlock: what’s not working worldwide. He argues that they are “fixable” when leaders act boldly. For each problem, Tepperman finds a free-thinking and experimental leader (or leaders) who defied the odds and achieved success. In the early years of this century, for example, President Luiz Ina?cio Lula da Silva of Brazil developed a ground-breaking poverty-fighting program, Bolsa Fami?lia, which gave small monthly grants to mothers to feed and educate their families.
Almost to a tale, these are stories of political pragmatism in the midst of crisis, often involving battlefield conversions by unusually adaptable and able leaders unfettered by “ideological handcuffs.”
In Brazil, the business community and economists were initially horrified when Lula da Silva, a labour leader who had experienced extreme poverty as a child, was elected president. But the “rabble-rouser metamorphosed into the Great Conciliator,” Tepperman writes, and to address Brazil’s terrible income inequality Lula launched Bolsa Família, an innovative and relatively inexpensive cash-transfer program that didn’t just give people handouts but required “counterpart responsibilities,” including government demands to use some of the money to send one’s kids to school and ensure they are immunized and get regular checkups (along with their mothers).
Lula ended up winning over even conservatives in his country and dramatically reducing poverty, leading the former World Bank expert Nancy Birdsall to conclude that Bolsa Família is “as close as you can come to a magic bullet in development.” More than 60 countries sent experts to Brazil to study the programme.
Tepperman also finds successful leadership stories in Mexico, which despite its reputation for runaway corruption and drug violence has begun to recover under President Enrique Pena Nieto, who impressively exploited the despair of Mexico’s political elites to forge unprecedented cooperation. In just the first 18 months after his July 2012 election, Pena Nieto “managed to bust open Mexico’s smothering monopolies and antiquated energy sector, restructure the country’s education system and modernize its tax and banking laws,”
In Botswana, the “cleaner than a hound’s tooth” Seretse Khama lifted his country beyond its dependence on the “resource curse” of diamonds, building what was considered, for a time, one of the best-governed countries in the developing world – a system so structured against corruption that it is, for now, resisting the alleged abuses of his far less capable son, Ian Khama.
For the past two decades, the democratic leaders of post-Suharto Indonesia have steered their country toward a moderate form of politics that has undercut Islamist radicalism. From his fascinating travelogue, Tepperman offers lessons for a world in trouble: leaders need to think outside the box, embrace the possibilities that crises present, and respect systems of checks and balances. The pragmatic reform tradition that the book illuminates is apparently still alive.
Though the book is not long, Tepperman goes into impressive detail in each case study and delivers his assessments in clear prose, careful to describe most of his success stories as experiments that could still fail.
Tepperman has traveled the world to write this book, conducting more than a hundred interviews with heads of state – like Lula, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo and other leaders – and other innovators responsible for these unexpected success stories. His access and expertise make “The Fix” a work of unusual insight, focused on the people and leadership lessons behind the policies.
Meticulously researched and deeply reported, it presents practical advice for aspiring problem-solvers of all stripes, and stands as a necessary corrective to the hand-wringing and grim prognostication that dominates the news these days, making a data-driven case for optimism in a time of crushing pessimism.
It is easy to look at Nigeria, and indeed, the world today and see nothing but a spiral of disorder, dysfunction, and decline. In this wonderfully engaging book, Tepperman sorted out political success stories that cut against this gloomy outlook.
Perhaps the biggest question about Tepperman’s thesis is one he addresses but doesn’t fully answer: whether many of these programs are readily transferable to other places, or are unique to the political culture whence they sprang. In the end, for example, Bloomberg’s version of Bolsa Família failed to gain traction in New York, and there are indications it may work better in rural than in urban areas.
As we grapple with the myriad of “demons” tormenting Nigeria and try to make sense of them, it should be clear by now that these “demons” can be exorcised if there is the political will. Our “demons” are elite inspired, and the starting point is to stand back, take critical look at those talking or agitating and see where their interests lie. It will surprise the majority that some of these interests are driven more by personal aggrandisements than the collective good.
Yes, there are agitations and counter agitation everywhere; but I still believe Nigeria is better together than divided. Let’s not be scared to sit together and talk.
