Somebody once said that, “The main lesson of history is that we do not learn the lessons of history!” How true. Two weeks ago, the United Nations (UN) released a damning report on the ongoing conflict in South Sudan. Until recently, the conflict has gone off the international radar. The report says soldiers on both sides were allowed to rape women as a form of payment of salaries! As an oil producing nation, the country is also hit by the volatility of global oil price; its situation is worsened by a senseless civil war.
When it gained independence from Sudan after a brutal civil war in July 2011, there was high expectation for growth and many believed they would not see another conflict in the country they fought so hard and so long for. While the jubilation was on, I read an op-ed written by a British journalist raising some concerns on why he thinks the country may go the way of other post-colonial/conflict African nations.
One of his major concerns was on the level and maturity of governance. He raised concern over the high number of expensive sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and other exotic cars that were purchased by politicians and government officials immediately after independence in a country with a dearth of infrastructure – especially road networks. He warned that if this continues the post-independence jubilation may be short lived; and short lived it was.
The UN investigation – that culminated into the report- accused all sides in the civil war of targeting civilians for murder and rape but said the army and government-allied forces were most to blame for what it described as “one of the most horrendous human rights situations in the world.”
The report contains harrowing accounts of civilians suspected of supporting the opposition, including children and the disabled, killed by being burned alive, suffocated in containers, shot, hanged from trees or cut to pieces. More than 1,300 rape cases were recorded in just one of South Sudan’s states – the oil-rich Unity state – over a five-month period last year, the report said.
One woman was quoted telling the UN investigators she had been stripped naked, raped by five soldiers in front of her children on the roadside, then raped again by more men in the bushes only to return and find her children missing.
“Credible sources,” the UN further said “indicate groups allied to the government are being allowed to rape women in lieu of wages but opposition groups and criminal gangs have also been preying on women and girls. The prevalence of rape suggests its use in the conflict has become an acceptable practice by government SPLA soldiers and affiliated armed militias.”
Conflict began almost as soon as independence was achieved. The most serious and currently ongoing conflict was sparked by a political dispute between President Salva Kiir, of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), and his former Vice President Riek Machar, after President Kiir dissolved his cabinet and dismissed Mr. Machar. The dispute quickly boiled over into open conflict between forces loyal to each side. It has been exacerbated by long running ethnic tensions, with the largest ethnic group, the Dinkas, mostly siding with President Kiir and the second largest, the Nuer, primarily siding with Mr. Machar.
Tribal tensions among southern groups plagued the region prior to independence, but Dr. John Garang, then Chairman of SPLM/A, urged unity and emphasized that, “this is a rare opportunity to create greater unity of our people.” This honeymoon period has come to a close following the lengthy transition period and eventual independence of South Sudan.
President Salva Kiir’s order to Major General Marial Ciennoung, commander of the Presidential Guard (The Tiger Battalion) to disarm the troops also aggravated the tension when Marial allegedly ordered that the Dinka members be re-armed. His deputy – from the Nuer ethnicity – began to question this order and a fight ensued. Kiir blamed Machar for instigating the “coup attempt,” but no evidence has been established. He announced that the “coup” had been put down the next day. Riek Machar denied a coup attempt and instead blamed Kiir for “playing power politics.”
The conflict has thus left about 1.5 million people internally displaced. 760,000 people have fled to Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda. After the crisis broke out, many families were displaced from their homes and left without food, income, or any means to acquire them.
2.4 million people are currently severely hungry in the conflict-affected states with an estimated 235,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition. More than 55 per cent of the people in South Sudan do not have access to safe water. The country recently faced a cholera outbreak and the crisis is still not over. Food prices are rocketing and local markets are being disrupted by the ongoing conflict.
What are some of the lessons we can learn from the conflict? We should never idolise a rebellion and assume that the people who are fighting against an injustice will not commit an injustice of their own. For years, the people of South Sudan – under the charismatic leadership of late John Garang – battled the government of Sudan for the grave injustice it meted out on its dark skinned southern citizens. Who would’ve anticipated a situation where those who for over two decades fought against injustice are themselves the perpetrators’ of the same injustice they fought against in the past?
Another lesson is this: strong leadership matters. Like most Africans who monitored development in the Sudan, I was saddened when Garang died in a helicopter crash months before independence. He was able to hold the people together despite their ethnic differences to fight for a common cause which was why the people voted overwhelmingly in a referendum for independence. I think that what we see in South Sudan is the weakness of civil institutions and a weakness of the political party system unable to deal with and resolve the rivalry of President Kiir and his vice president, Machar. Immature leadership should be partly blamed for the war.
Not allowing the urgency created by the human cost of conflict to overwhelm the process is another lesson. Conflicts with high human costs can evoke strong interest from the international community, but while well-meaning and potentially helpful, that community also presents potentially conflicting interests that must be carefully managed. There were differences that Garang was able to manage, but his sudden death robbed the process of his unifying abilities. Some of these problems and concerns were merely glossed over.
Another lesson is to look out for excesses in leadership. The weakness of the parliament in being able to stand up to the usurpation of power by the president and the failure of the army to integrate the various militias, which split apart almost immediately, between them have created some horrific human rights violations. Again, the absence of a unifying leadership is to blame.
Yet another lesson is to manage the exploitation of natural resources, especially oil. The presence of oil in the conflict-affected states, which provides the primary source of state revenue, has further exacerbated the conflict. Among them is Unity State, a Nuer stronghold, where Mr. Machar’s wife previously challenged incumbent Governor Taban Deng, an ally of President Kiir.
There may still be hope as some progress has been made toward implementing a peace accord signed in August last year which called for the establishment of a transitional government of national unity. Kiir’s decree giving Machar the newly created post of first vice president is also seen a major step toward resolving the conflict.
But Machar is waiting for 1,400 of his troops to be settled in the capital, Juba, before making his return to the city. Restoration of trust and assurances of mutual security will be required and necessarily will take time to establish, but it’s a necessary first step.
However, my concern with the arrangement is that the transitional government will operate without a binding constitution. A permanent constitution – in my opinion – is critical in addressing some of the fundamental institutional weaknesses that led to the war in the first place.
