As the clock ticks daily to the D-Day for the Ondo State gubernatorial election and the flurry of political activities and intrigues that accompany it, the question on the lips of observers is; can Mimiko win? The answer is hanging in the air but the reason for asking the question is not far-fetched. Olusegun Rahman Mimiko, Governor of Ondo State and until recently, the candidate to beat in the October 20, gubernatorial election in the state, is the candidate of the Labour Party. He is the only governor produced by Labour Party in Nigeria. His major contenders are Olusola Oke of the PDP and Rotimi Akeredolu of the ACN.
Watching the debate of the candidates on AIT last Thursday, Mimiko looked troubled, emaciated and forlorn. Olusola Oke of the PDP was in his best element while Rotimi Akeredolu did not do badly. Recently, a poll watch that gave victory to Akeredolu popularly called Aketi with 40.28 percent; Mimiko came a distant second with 24.84 while Olusole Oke came third with 22.84. This may be correct considering the turn of events in Ondo State in the last few weeks. What led to the turn of events for Mimiko who three months ago was sure to beat other candidates silly in a free and fair election?
Mimiko rode to power with a lot of goodwill arising from the 2009 landmark judgment of the Court of Appeal, Benin division which returned him as the duly elected governor of the state while stripping the then incumbent, Olusegun Agagu of the PDP the certificate of return already issued by INEC. Mimiko was so popular that his inauguration witnessed multitudes of supporters from within and outside the state. Overwhelmed with the crowd and level of support, he wept. He promised to work for them and they believed him. But shortly after he assumed the reins of power, the real Mimiko manifested. He reduced governance in Ondo State to a family affair by alienating leaders of his party and his close aides in major decisions of government.
The first sign of trouble was when a Senator from his party defected to the ACN. But when the state chairman of the party, Olaiya Oni resigned, it was a sign that all is not well with Mimiko. Recently, five of his closed aides resigned in a day while others followed in quick succession. His party members have left in droves. The trouble was however temporarily mitigated by the seeming performance of Mimiko especially the N5billon street lighting of Oba Adesida road and the water dispensing roundabout. This soon pale into insignificance when the scale fell off the eyes of Ondo people that Mimiko only did the grandiose project on Oba Adesida road and nowhere else in the state capital not to talk of other major towns like Ikare, Owo, Okitipupa and Ore. He ought to have taken a cue from neighbouring Ekiti and Osun states where construction work is going on in other local governments in the states.
The Mega school project of Mimiko is a colossal waste of money as a general renovation of schools as recently done in neighbouring Ekiti State would have been more cost effective and result oriented. He embarked on a dome project of N2.9 billion which is now abandoned. On health, his N4 billion Kaadi Igbeayo project has been abandoned. Agagu claimed he left a sum of N38 billion naira in the treasury but Mimiko claimed he met a debt of N117 billion. He was alleged to have thrown the state into huge indebtedness to the tune of about N100 billion naira by borrowing and yet he has received in three and a half years about 300 billion from the federation account. He owes many contractors without any hope of paying back if he does not secure a second term. The Sunshine Liberation Movement has exposed many shady deals of the Mimiko administration and they have provided documents to back this up which the government has not been able to debunk till date. The sharp practices include contract inflation, over invoicing and frivolous awards of non-existing contracts to family members and cronies.
What observers regard as the greatest undoing of Mimiko is his treacherous nature. He was alleged to have betrayed Ajasin, Adefarati, Agagu, Obasanjo and Tinubu. He had a pact with Tinubu who bankrolled his bid to reclaim his mandate with the understanding that he would join ACN thereafter but reneged on the agreement and even castigated Tinubu his benefactor. Mimiko could not be trusted. He once shocked a colleague governor from a neighbouring state when he sponsored hoodlums to disrupt the venue of a lecture for late Adefarati after he has assured his colleague that there would be no problem.
Another problem confronting Mimiko is that he is in the midst of performing governors in the South-west from Lagos to Edo State. Like a bad dream, his popularity has drastically waned in the last one month when Ondo State people started comparing the state which earns an average of N6 billion from the federation account monthly as an oil producing state to Ekiti, a non-oil producing state with just N2.5 billion. The level of work in Ekiti’s 16 local government areas is stupendous and this made Mimiko’s supposed achievement juxtaposed with the resources available to him pale into insignificance.
Governor Raji Fashola recently took him to the cleaners when he gingered Ondo State people to wake up from their slumber and chase Mimiko out. He said it is shameful that Ondo had not fared better than when Mimiko took over more than three years ago despite the resources available to him. As if Ondo people have been waiting for Governor Fashola to show them the way, they turned the table against Mimiko. The first sign that Mimiko is no longer the candidate to beat was the Ikare rally that was well attended to the chagrin of Mimiko. The crowd at Ore rally of the ACN was more than that of Ikare. Ondo rally of the ACN was an embarrassment to Mimiko who hails from the town. It was a mammoth crowd. From that moment, it was clear that Mimiko is in trouble.
In Akure last week, 400 members of his Labour Party defected to the ACN saying Mimiko would lose the election this Saturday. We all know huge crowds at rallies don’t win elections but for ACN to record such a huge crowd, the signs are bad for the government of the day. Ondo State people also wanted to be part of development in the rest of the South-west states and would not want to be left out in the impending greater benefits that would come with the regional integration of the region which Mimiko has shunned.
The analysis of the election proper is also a cause of worry for Mimiko and his genuine supporters. In Ondo Central which has the largest number of voters and where Mimiko has the strongest support base, he is not sure of total victory except in Ondo town. Akure, Ile-Oluji and Iju Ita Ogbolu is likely to be won by the ACN. Ondo South comprising of Ore, Odigbo, the riverine areas of Ilaje, Ikale and the Mahin and Arogbo clans is for former Governor Agagu and by extension, the PDP but the ACN will have a good showing having made in-roads into the area recently.
Ondo North comprising of Akoko and Owo is Akeredolu’s base and he is sure of victory. Mimiko is in for a shocker as most of his trusted aides and friends are working for the opposition and are still the men he relies on to deliver votes for him on October 20. It is so for Mimiko because of his politics of exclusion. He does not trust his aides and his aides don’t trust him but are only waiting to collect whatever he has to offer before bolting. The Mimiko ship is already leaking and it is a matter of time before it sinks. Only the Nigerian factor can ensure victory for Mimiko on Saturday given the fact that it is near impossible for him to win in a free and fair election. With this scenario, the question comes up again, can Mimiko win?
• Ibraheem writes from Ore.
