Taking NBS to the cleaners
The NBS report on the unemployment situation in the country has always attracted scathing remarks from insiders who are more discerning.
One of those who have faulted the NBS is the former Cross River State governor, Donald Duke. Duke who raised his voice above the din, faulted recent figures released by the NBS on Nigeria’s unemployment and inflation rates insisting they can’t be trusted.
He described figures as not only unrealistic but unreliable, as they are not in tandem with the realities in the country.
Addressing a large crowd of mainly students, at the 2018 Dinner of the Law Students Association (LAWSA), University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus (UNEC), in Enugu, recently, the former governor who used the opportunity to unveil his presidential aspiration in next year’s general elections also raised the alarm that Nigeria was in great danger and needed a leader imbued with demonstrable strategies to steer the ship and rescue it from sinking.
Dwelling on the topic, “Nigeria in Clear and Present Danger”, he said the nation ran a rent economy; a dysfunctional system designed to create jobs and opportunities in foreign countries.
The former governor emphasised that government adjudged its ability to manage the economy on the basis of how low it can keep the exchange rate stable, which was attractive to their wealthy acolytes, rather than how many jobs were created in the real sectors of the economy.
“Comically, the NBS states the national unemployment rate at 14.2 per cent. This is comical because even the uninformed knows that perhaps seven out of 10 folks you meet are either unemployed or underemployed. Would the NBS claim the hawker on the street is employed? These are the sort of statistics we bandy around that make us look delusional. Another is Nigeria’s inflation rate.
The same bureau states that our national inflation rate is at 15.25 per cent, which is considered too high. In other words, there is too much money in circulation. My question is, where is this money, because most folks I know don’t have a dime, while a very few have too much,” Duke stated.
According to him, the wealthier people get, the less the consumer goods purchase. Rather, they indulge in luxury goods that are usually imported and of no multiplier effect or impact on the economy.
He added: “If the amounts of money in circulation were properly distributed and more people were income earning, there would certainly be a deflation and desperate need to reflate the economy. And to my mind, inflation in the context of Nigeria is a fancy word for government’s failure or inability to properly distribute wealth.”
Regardless, Duke posited that to remedy the disaster, which he said the country was walking into with eyes open, there was need to design an economy with a growth rate in the real sectors of about 15 per cent annually, consecutively for 10 years to bring it to terms with the projected population, need and place in the comity of nations.
‘Unemployment crisis worse than NBS new statistics’
While reacting to previous statistics detailing the unemployment situation in the country, Prof. Akpan Ekpo, a professor of economics and the current Director General, West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), noted matter-of-factly that the NBS has been calculating employment/unemployment statistics to guide policy over the years.
In a document obtained by The Nation, the professor who fell short of dismissing the NBS report said it failed in certain parameters.
“While one would agree to some extent that sentiments ought to be set aside but the issues of ideology, science and international best practices must be challenged in the interest of knowledge in general and the Nigerian economy in particular. In measuring unemployment, countries have adopted the concept to their peculiarities. For example, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) considers that a person who works for an hour a week is employed and often adduces reasons to support its position.
“The same organisation also calculates the rate of vulnerable unemployment. The USA Labour Agency assumes that if you register as unemployed and did not show up after a week, you must be employed. The same country considers the frequency, duration and incidence of unemployment in measuring the overall unemployment rate in the country. The USA economy also pays unemployment compensation to workers who lost their jobs among other welfare programmes. For the most part, the outcome of administered surveys in any economy depends on the coverage, the content (questions asked) in the questionnaire is crucial. In the Nigerian case, the number of Enumeration Areas is relevant.”
Specifically, he said, the NBS states that the working age goes from 15-65 years. But he deadpan, “One would ask why stop at 65? Why not 60 or 70? How many Enumeration Areas are covered by the NBS? About 28, is that adequate? How is rural employment/unemployment captured? Nonetheless, whatever the assumptions, one should be guided by economic theory and principle. Economics may be an inexact science but it uses scientific method. The other social sciences do the same. For example, in analysing the population structure within the context of the labour force, one may need a demographer, among other experts. In the epistemology of knowledge, the distinction between the natural sciences and social sciences is a false distinction. Every scientist/science deals with matter in motion.”
“It is interesting to note that certain laws in economics were based on casual observation. Hence, one would have expected that the wide variation of the unemployment rates between the old and the new methodology as well as the concern of all Nigerians would have alerted the experts in the NBS to re-examine their data, coverage, sampling techniques, among other variables. Not all variables observed in statistical sampling are based on objectivity. The experience of the policy-maker and the reality on ground are also crucial. In addition, there are no unemployment benefits in the Nigerian economy. There are tendencies and different schools of thought in economics.”
Waxing philosophical, he said, “The matter of full employment, is and has always been ideological in terms of conceptualisation, formulation and implementation. Within a market based economy, there exist debates as to whether full employment should be an objective as well as what should be the role of government during high rates of unemployment. The debate becomes intense if the economy is in a recession or a depression.
“It is interesting to note that even in Nigeria, economists have different tendencies. Their ideas are not homogenous despite the broad and technical training. The tendencies may not be perceived to be sharp because of the underdevelopment of the economy and the economics profession itself in the country.
“Regarding international best practices, the unemployment rates from the ILO suggest that the Nigerian economy has been at (average of 4.2 per cent) full-employment in the last five years. No active observer of the Nigerian economy would take those ILO figures seriously. Who determines the so-called International best practices?
“In the same vein, the NBS ‘new’ unemployment rates indicate that unemployment is not a serious challenge in the economy hence no need for urgent government policy to tackle unemployment. Is that really the case? One is not alluding that the NBS cannot fine-tune any of its methodologies including that of employment/unemployment.
“The worry is that not too long-ago, the NBS informed Nigerians that the incidence of poverty stood at almost 70 per cent in 2012 and projected future increase. The government challenged the figure of the NBS and invited the World Bank to calculate the incidence of poverty for the country.
“The Bank arrived at a rate of 33 per cent indicating that the poverty incidence decline sharply over the years. What the World Bank should have done was to use the formula and data of the NBS and see whether the result would be different. It is hoped that the rates of unemployment has not suffered the same panel-beating like the incidence of poverty measure. The NBS needs proper funding by government so that labour survey coverage would be extensive while the questionnaire design, testing and execution would be rigorous reflecting the Nigerian reality.
“Furthermore, State governments should also make efforts in computing employment/unemployment statistics in their jurisdictions. Notwithstanding the low unemployment rates published by the NBS, the new administration should see job creation (not seasonal employment) as a priority. The reserved army of the unemployed in the economy is too large.”
While noting that unemployment remains a ticking time-bomb and is the nation’s collective interest not to allow it to explode, he said, most governments in Europe and North America, Prof Ekpo emphasised, “Enacted laws mandating their governments to ensure that full employment was among the macroeconomic objectives of the State. Hence, the employment/unemployment matter should not be taken lightly. If a high per cent of the labour force is unemployed then that economy cannot be performing satisfactorily even if such an economy is registering positive growth rates.”
Thinking outside the box
In the view of Prof. Ajike Osanyin, Founder, Early Childhood Association of Nigeria (ECAN), a literate person should be knowledgeable in school work as well as acquire skill that is beneficial to him and the society.
She refereed to graduates these days as unemployable because they lack skill, ability and are being saturated with book work.
“If you look at the demands of employers they are not looking at your certificate but your ability.”|
Raising a poser, the university don queried, “Do our educated products have the ability, No; instead we store them with books and are saturated. They can be referred to what I now call damaged disposition because they are not motivated and there is no challenge. Parents seem to have done the job for them because basic amenities had been provided for them.
“That is why we have adults, who should be self reliant, but are still living with their parents because they do not have skills,’’ she said.
The don, who described a literate as being functional to oneself and the society, said that there was need for a change of attitude towards emphasis on school work and concentrate also on potential.
The professor said that there were lots of things to be acquired outside the school curriculum.
Osanyin said there was no effort in place to make the education a child gets in school relevant besides memorizing which was not literacy because it was not part of them.
“Literacy should be beneficial to one which is not so in most cases; that is why we have examination malpractice.
“It is because people think the end product is just the certificate; it is not all about the certificate.
“If you have been properly educated, you have your skills, you know what you want to do that makes you literate and basically self reliant,’’ she said.
She said that the situation could be rectified if the society should have a change of mind set and value of what we want our children to be.
How FG/AfDB partnership will ease unemployment
Expectedly, the Minister of Labour and Employment, Dr. Chris Ngige, has described the present trend of youth unemployment as unacceptable; adding that youth unemployment is very serious in Nigeria and other Africa countries.
Ngige gave this position as the Nigeria Government and the African Development Bank (AFDB) go into partnership to reverse the trend.
Already, the Federal Government, through the Ministry of Labour and Employment and the AFDB, has commenced work on a program plan termed: “Youth Employment and Skills Development in Nigeria, Public-Private Roundtable.”
Addressing a team of experts from AFDB, led by the Chief Development Economist, Human Capital Youth and Skills Development, Rosemond Offei Awuke, the minister said the partnership between the Federal Government and the bank is very imperative to reverse the trend of youth unemployment.
He said: “The youths constitute a larger proportion of Nigeria’s Population; the pertinent question, therefore, is how many of these youths are fully employed, underemployed and unemployed? Alarmingly, majority of Nigerian youths are in the underemployed and unemployed categories.”
Ngige emphasized that the Public-Private Sector roundtable is very important to identify the factors responsible for high youth unemployment and make recommendations that would address the daunting challenges associated with it.
Besides, he said it would also seek to implement most of the recommendations with a view to reverse the ugly trend of rising youth unemployment in Nigeria.
The Minister assured the African Development Bank that the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari is not relenting in its efforts at creating the much needed decent jobs for Nigeria youths, adding that the quantum jobs being created through various intervention programmes such, as the Npower further contribute to the gains.
“We assure you that the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari is committed to all efforts aimed at job creation for the teeming unemployed Nigerian youths. I have no doubt that from this roundtable, meaningful solutions will be provided on youth employment.” The Minister said.
In her remarks, the leader of the AFDB team, Rosemond Offei Awuke commended the commitment of Nigeria government to the fight against youth unemployment.
She assured of the determination of the African Development Bank to support the Nigerian government in its drive at job creation.
