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  • Imported commodity inflation rises by 0.14% in Q2

    Imported commodity inflation rises by 0.14% in Q2

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has stated that All – commodity Group Import Index increased by 0.14 per cent in second quarter of the year.

    The NBS attributed the increase to changes in import prices.

    In its report, entitled: “All-Commodity Group Price Indices and Terms of Trade (Q2 2023)”, the Bureau attributed the increase to changes in import prices mainly in the price of base metals and articles, products of the chemical and allied industries, textiles and textile articles, and ‘plastic, rubber, and articles.

    The NBS also explained that the index increased by 0.02 per cent points in second quarter of the year.

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    According to the report, the increase was majorly attributed to changes in the prices of papermaking material; paper and paperboard, articles, boilers, machinery and appliances; prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits, and vinegar; tobacco and vehicles, aircraft and parts thereof and vessels, among others.

    NBS noted that the All Products Terms of Trade (TOT) Index on average decreased by 0.13 per cent points.

  • Inflation rises to 25.8% in August, says NBS

    Inflation rises to 25.8% in August, says NBS

    • Public debt stock rises to N87.38trn in Q2 2023

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Friday said inflation rate rose from 24.08% in July 2023 to 25.80% in August 2023.

    This was contained in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) August 2023 Report, which the bureau released on its website.

    The report noted that in the period under review, headline inflation soared by 1.72% points when compared to that of the preceding month.

    NBS said, “In August 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 25.80% relative to the July 2023 headline inflation rate which was 24.08%.

    “Looking at the movement, the August 2023 headline inflation rate shows an increase of 1.72% points when compared to the July 2023 headline inflation rate.”

    The report attributed the rise to increases in food, fuel, gas and transportation costs.

    NBS said on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.27% points higher compared to the rate recorded in August 2022, which was 20.52%.

    It further explained that this shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in August 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., August 2022).

    Similarly, the bureau said, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in August 2023 was 3.18%, which was 0.29% points higher than the rate recorded in July 2023 (2.89%).

    It added that this means that in August 2023, on average, the general price level was 0.29% higher relative to July 2023.

    On food inflation, NBS said the rate in August 2023 was 29.34% on a year-on-year basis, which was 6.22% points higher compared to the rate recorded in August 2022 (23.12%).

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    According to the data, the rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, fish, fruit, meat, vegetables and potatoes, yam and other tubers, vegetable, milk, cheese and eggs.

    NBS said with 31.50%, inflation was highest in Kogi, while Lagos was 29.17% trailed closely by Rivers with 29.06%.

    On the other hand, the report said inflation was slowest in Sokoto with 20.91%, Borno 21.77% and Nasarawa 22.25%.

    The report said, “In August 2023, all items inflation rate on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (31.50%), Lagos (29.17%), and Rivers (29.06%), while Sokoto (20.91%), Borno (21.77%) and Nasarawa (22.25%) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis.”

    It noted that on a month-on-month basis, however, August 2023 recorded the highest increases in Kwara (6.07%), Osun (4.36%), and Kogi (4.35%), while Sokoto (1.38%), Borno (1.73%) and Ogun (1.89%) recorded the slowest rise in month-on-month inflation.

     NBS said in August 2023, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (38.84%), Lagos (36.04%), and Kwara (35.33%), while Sokoto (20.09%), Nasarawa (24.35%) and Jigawa (24.53%) recorded the slowest rise in Food inflation on a year-on-year basis.

    On a month-on-month basis, however, the bureau said August 2023 food inflation was highest in Rivers (7.12%), Kwara (5.89%), and Kogi (5.80%), while Sokoto (0.50%), Abuja (1.30%) and Niger (1.40%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.

    The NBS also yesterday said the country’s   public debt stock increased from N49.85 trillion (108.30 billion dollars) in the first quarter of 2023 to N87.38 trillion (113.42 billion dollars) in the second quarter of 2023.

    The NBS said this in its Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt Report for Q2 2023 released in Abuja.

    The report said Nigeria’s public debt stock, which included external and domestic debt, grew by 75.27 per cent in Q2 of 2023.

    It said that external debt stood at N33.25 trillion (43.16 billion dollars) in Q2 2023, while domestic debt was N54.13 trillion (70.26billion dollars).

    “However, the share of external debt to total public debt stood at 38.05 per cent in Q2 2023, while domestic debt was recorded at 61.95 per cent.”

    In a breakdown by states, the bureau said that Lagos State recorded the highest domestic debt of N996.44 billion in Q2 2023, followed by Delta at N465.40 billion.

    The report showed Jigawa recorded the lowest domestic debt at N43.13 billion, followed by Kebbi at N60.94 billion.

    In addition, it stated that Lagos State recorded the highest external debt with 1.26 billion dollars, followed by Kaduna State with 569.38 million dollars.

    “Borno recorded the lowest external debt with 18.75 million dollars, followed by Taraba with 21.92 million dollars,” the NBS stated.

  • Much ado about NBS’ unemployment rate

    Much ado about NBS’ unemployment rate

    • By Ayodele Okunfolami

    Sometime ago, I had a friend from Togo who was teaching me French. I visited him the Sunday after the general elections in 2003 (20 years ago). While in his house, the results of the elections were being announced. He was shocked that Nigerians were complaining that the polls were rigged despite the electoral body detailing how it came about each result. This is how he put it, “You Nigerians are funny. They are showing you on television the results of what each candidate and political party got from each polling unit, yet you say it was rigged. If it was my country, you will just hear ‘Eyadéma is the winner of the elections’.

    It is that kind of feeling Nigerian institutions battle with; doing their constitutionally assigned responsibility judiciously, using all the apparatus of the law and equipment available to them to a distrusting audience that does not fully understand the details behind the results. Sleeping through half a day listening to judges that had committed themselves for months going through tomes of materials to come up with what judgement only for the public to disregard all their efforts.

    So it happened that, using a different methodology it claims is the new global measuring standard, the agency responsible for collecting, compiling, analysing, interpreting, publishing, and disseminating statistical information relating to the socio-economic life and conditions of the people of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, came up with 4.1% as Nigeria’s unemployment rate. NBS has tried, like INEC and the tribunal to explain with evidence.

    The science behind figures is correct because NBS practically redefined employment to a minimum of one hour per week from 40 and left the labour force bracket open instead of closing it at 64. Why fault NBS now if we reasoned with them when they told us nearly 133 million Nigerians are multi-dimensionally poor, when they release inflation figures or when they told us Nigeria was in a recession?

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    First, just as one does not need a meteorologist to tell him the rain is about to fall or an economist to tell one the future of his finances if spending patterns remain unchanged, similarly Nigerians do not need any statistical body to tell it the unemployment situation. A simple look at the crowds at accident scenes, motor parks, crusade grounds, political rallies and betting shops is enough to tell the unemployment rate of the country. The fact that, virtually every Nigerian family has had to feed at least one unemployed graduate for more than a year before he or she finds something to do is enough. It is that “something” that NBS is calling employment even if it means being under an umbrella booth for one hour weekly. There is no mention of the worth of the job financially or morally because percentages hide the actual volume and details behind the data.

    For example, the NBS itself says less than 7% of Nigerians work in the formal sector. This tells you the “something” that is defined as employment. 

    Besides, these definitions change from time to time. There was a time unemployment was defined as those within the employment bracket seeking work but cannot find; implying that one must be willing to work before he can be termed unemployed.

    Aside the academic, who listens to NBS? Is it the policymakers that do not know how much crude Nigeria produces, how much petrol it consumes or can’t agree on the number and names on its poverty list that would listen to NBS? Governors didn’t listen when NBS revealed state-by-state unemployment two years ago. The ordinary man on the street is too bothered about the bare necessities of life that all these bar charts and graphs with upward green arrows or downward red arrows to know whether the POS business he is doing or the hair she is plaiting under the tree is termed employment.

    So, like other institutions that tell us about upcoming environmental hazards or health epidemics, the NBS performs to viewers who only become attentive when their findings can be used for political reasons. And this is the perception that NBS might have been arm-twisted to tweak the figures to suit a political slant. Although I disagree and would always encourage that we must as a society continue to believe in our institutions. However, NBS’ inconsistency in releasing the employment figures calls for questioning.  

    Why should a quarterly report last published in 2020 with 56.1% unemployment rate miss seven straight quarters only to come now with a new formula to give 4.1%? These suspicions would not have arisen had NBS been more consistent in its publications and forthcoming with its methodologies and not giving us the answer before showing the workings.

    It is good and advisable to always use best practices to derive our data but caveating with World Bank or other international bodies to justify its methods does not always cut it. NBS should be seen to be working for Nigeria and Nigerians. America for example releases its employment figures monthly irrespective of which political party is in power. This is what you find in its NBS equivalent website: The Employment Situation for September 2023 is scheduled to be released on October 6, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. It is regular. It has nothing to do with the temperament of the boss. Like every other research worth its onions, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics in its August report came with all the academic jargons but most importantly gave life to its numbers by stating specifically that unemployed persons increased by 514,000. It was scientific and at the same specific and didn’t need a global best practice method to sound patronising. Its goal is to the Americans. NBS should make their numbers more relatable.

    But do I blame a poorly funded NBS? How it comes up with its numbers in a country that does not have periodic censuses should be commendable. 

    In summary, people don’t care what the thermometer says, if they are hot, the weather is bad. NBS figures is just another academic exercise to that jobless guy that works one hour in a week.

    Secondly, NBS should continue to do its constitutionally assigned functions more diligently, consistently, transparently, and responsibly. Data is the ammunition any society needs to get ahead. Good enough, there are other private statistical bodies operating in the Nigerian space that NBS can be peered against. 

    To government at all levels, it should not even attempt to cash in on the NBS figures to score cheap political points. GlaxoSmithKline and other multinationals cannot be leaving Nigeria and they remain comfortable. Indigenous companies are folding up; high employing industries are becoming non-existent while warehouses and depots are converted to religious centres. Those and more are enough data for our administrators to know that there is fire on the mountain. 

    Palliatives won’t solve it neither will handing out sewing nor grinding machines in the name of empowerments schemes. And governors directing the recruitment of 4,200 people into civilian JTF would neither solve banditry nor improve employment figures. What is needed is fixing Nigeria’s overall infrastructure beginning with electricity and finding ways of expanding the formal sector to facilitate more taxable employment. The Minister of Labour should not only be seen to be negotiating industrial actions, but to be initiating policies and programmes that would generate jobs for Nigeria’s teeming population. It is then that NBS’s numbers can make sense.

    •Okunfolami writes from Festac, Lagos.

  • NBS 4.1% jobless data: Myth or reality?

    NBS 4.1% jobless data: Myth or reality?

    t is not for nothing that recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics NBS, which put unemployment rate in the first quarter of this year at 4.1 per cent stirred up the hornets’ nest. Not only is the figure at variance with known trends in the country’s unemployment market, the abrupt drop raised more challenges than it was meant to resolve.

    In its Nigerian Labour Force Survey (NLFS) released last week, NBS said the figure is the outcome of recalibration in methodology using the standards set by the  International Labour Organization ILO and not that the government had performed better.

    The new survey methodology classified employed individuals as those who are working for pay or who profit and who worked for at least one hour in the last seven days. NBS said the figure aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed. It also bears close semblance with the figures in neighbouring countries- Ghana (3.9 per cent), Niger (0.5 per cent) Chad (1.4 per cent) and Cameroun (4.0 per cent).

    Going by this configuration, Nigerians are classified as gainfully employed if they worked for at least one hour in the last seven days even if the pay they received is not a living wage. This would at once sound absurd going by the peculiarities of the Nigerian labour market.

     Not unexpectedly, the new figure has attracted a deluge of criticisms with the immediate past Statistician General of the Federation/ Chief Executive Officers of the NBS, Dr. Yemi Kale leading the campaign. He picked holes with the one hour benchmark instead of the 20 hours previously adopted in calculating the unemployment rate in the country.

    Kale said he resisted the pressure during his tenure to reduce downwards the minimum number of hours to count as being employed on two counts. The first was based on the fact that the income generated within one hour was not necessarily a living wage while the other relates to the glaring inadequacies in deploying data so generated for general planning purposes.

    The 20 hours was decided because “if you work for that duration, you might be able to generate enough income that might sort of equate to what working one hour in the US is. Then you have a bit of more comparison”, the former NBS chief said. This makes better sense.

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    But the spokesman of the NBS, Wakili Ibrahim surprisingly launched a diatribe on the person of Kale seeking to discredit his tenure for daring to question the new calibration system. Though the NBS dissociated itself from Ibrahim’s invective as personal to him and not the official position of the organization, it came as a huge disappointment that Ibrahim left the substantive issues only to hurl personal insults.

    It is not just enough for the organization to dissociate itself from that poor outing of its erring staff, he needs to be reprimanded for the vituperation he heaped on the informed observations of the former NBS boss. At the least, he owes him apology for speaking in the very careless manner he did.

    But his harangue did not resolve in any significant way, the salient objections raised by Kale against the new parameter for calculating the unemployment rate. Not with the facts of the unemployment statistics on the ground.  Not with extant data released by the organization in the fourth quarter of 2020 which put the unemployment rate at 33.3 per cent.

    That figure placed Nigeria second in a global list of 82 countries monitored by Bloomberg along their unemployment standing. Namibia led in the unemployment list with 33.4 per cent while South Africa placed third after Nigeria. Key indicators including a report from KPMG estimates Nigeria’s unemployment rate at about 40 per cent with a projection that it could climb higher by the end of this year.

    Additionally, in its multidimensional report towards the end of last year, the same NBS had said 63 per cent of Nigerians were poor due to lack of access to health, education, living standards, employment and security. Before then, the World Poverty Clock had in 2018 rated Nigeria as the poverty capital of the world with 86.9 million of its people living in extreme poverty.

    Given the nexus between poverty and unemployment, it is startling that a country housing the poorest of the poor could all of a sudden, post unemployment data that compares favourably with those of the industrial and developed countries of the world. It completely lost sight of glaring disparities in working conditions, remunerations, purchasing power of different currencies and the standard of living in countries being so compared.

     Kale was on point when he observed the absurdity in comparing one hour pay in Nigeria with the US for instance. Is there really anything like one hour income in at least, the last seven days in our own clime? And what difference will such a meagre amount make in the life of the earner in a country where the average worker takes care of many non-working dependants?

     The new unemployment rate looks more of a myth. Sadly, this myth has been dressed as reality courtesy of a new parameter adopted by the NBS which classified employed individuals as those who worked for at least one hour in the last seven days.

    Apparently conscious of the limitations of the new parameter, NBS was quick to caution the government not go to sleep with the data as it does not indicate it has performed better in that sector. And we ask, if the data is not a good measure of the performance of the government in the unemployment sector, of what use is it then? That is the contradiction in adopting a methodology that is at utter variance with the peculiarities of our local situation.

    There are also issues with the sample adopted by the organization to arrive at the contentious figure. A sample that only relied on 35,520 households in a country of more than 200 million people cannot be said to be truly representative of the population.

     It is not just enough to plead that the new calibration aligns with the standards adopted by the ILO; neither does its allure lie in the argument that it conforms to the expectations of the World Bank or similar international institutions. What we should be craving for are country-specific guidelines that capture the unique situation in our country. Ironically, that is not the situation we are presented with.

    By what the NBS did, the new figure puts Nigeria in the bracket of countries of the world with the lowest unemployment rates in 2023 such as China 4.1 per cent, UK 4.15 per cent and USA 3.83 per cent. This paring is as ridiculous as it is deceptive given its glaring inability to isolate our peculiar job challenges to make for effective planning.

    We are exposed to the duplicity and inadequacies of the new method. Such pairing neither factors in wage disparities nor the yawning yaps in the development levels of the countries being so compared. Before now, the danger in sticking to economic and development models recommended by multilateral institutions irrespective of their suitability to our local situations had been eminently identified.

    That had been the driving force for agitations against the deregulation of the oil sector and the floating of Naira at the foreign exchange market despite promptings from multilateral organizations. Nigerians have since been living with the harsh realities of the two policies.

    Their capacities to further drive more of our people down the lowest rung of the poverty ladder have been manifest in spiralling inflation and untold hardship unleashed on the people. The situation will further swell the army of the unemployed and render worthless the new job projection by the NBS.

    If the NBS is serious to produce reliable data to aid policy makers defuse the unemployment time bomb, it must discard the new calibration system which classifies one hour work at least, in the last seven days as employment. One hour work is patently alien to our system. Its adoption can only produce counterproductive outcomes.

  • Unemployment and NBS statistics

    Unemployment and NBS statistics

    • By Omale Omachi Samuel

    Sir: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the fourth and first quarters of 2022 and 2023 labour force statistics respectively. It was reported that the new rate of unemployment in Nigeria is now 4.1%, while 13.4% are on wage employment, and 75.4% are operating their own businesses or engaging in farming in the first quarter of 2023. A new methodology was said to have given birth to the shocking figures and not that anything has changed with respect to employment generation.

    Before now, the unemployment computation was 40 hours of work per week, and later moved down to 20 hours of work per week as a minimum to qualify someone as employed. However, the new methodology recognized the minimum of one hour of work in a week as gainfully employed. Again, the labour force age limit has been increased from the range of 15-65 to the range of 15 and above. It then means people who have the grace of living up to 95-100 years are part of the labour force in Nigeria by implication.

    The argument of one-hour minimum work a week as the basis to qualify someone as employed in the new methodology of labour force survey calls for deliberation, and requires further conversations, considering our peculiarity. Is one hour of work good enough if someone chooses not to do more jobs? Does the minimum of one hour of work for a week really make any sense? Is the income generated within one hour of work in a week in Nigeria realistic to justify this new methodology?

    With all sincerity, can two hours of work feed someone for a week in Nigeria? Does Nigeria have an hourly pay rate? Let’s assume one uses the Nigerian minimum wage of N30,000 a month, 30 days in a month, and eight hours a day; one can only generate N125 for one hour of work. Don’t forget that not all the states are paying the minimum wage of N30,000. Even if they all agreed to pay, can this amount feed someone for two hours, not to talk for one week?

    What is the value of a guideline, or new methodology if it cannot be practicalised? There are so many questions begging for answers.

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    It appears that the National Bureau of Statistics did not weigh the implications before accepting the new methodology from the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

    The next question is, how do we reconcile this new methodology with economic theories, the practical and everyday reality of Nigerians? If the new methodology is a subtle way of saying we are fine, if even we are not, then, we need to think it through again.

    Surveying 35,520 households out of 200 million population requires a rethink. I have never been surveyed nor did I know anybody that had ever been surveyed. So, it will be difficult to rule out cynicism in a situation like this.

    Continuing with this new methodology, which many scholars have faulted, including the former Statistician-General, Yemi Kale will amount to ridiculing ourselves, the jobless population, and a sign of insensitivity. The future implications will include distrust of the NBS data if urgent action is not taken to salvage the situation. Again, aside from looking into the sampling size, NBS need to expand and spread the geographical coverage of the survey for proper understanding and public buy-in.

    •Omale Omachi Samuel,

    Centre for Social Justice, Abuja.

  • Making sense of NBS data on unemployment

    Making sense of NBS data on unemployment

    Explaining the new methodology behind Nigeria’s 4.1 per cent unemployment figure, NBS said the latest figure doesn’t change current jobs crisis and that the methodology used in collecting labour market data is in line with the latest guidelines of the International Labour Organisation

    By the time the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the labour report for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022 and the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 last week, little did it know it was courting controversies. The report averred that the new methodology sanctioned by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) was used in data gathering. Under the old methodology, the NBS pegged Nigeria’s unemployment rate at 33.3 per cent as at Q4 2020, but the revised methodology put it at 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023.

     In simpler terms, the NBS said the unemployment rate stood at 4.1 per cent in the first quarter, down from 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022. The NBS last published unemployment data in March 2021, where it reported a record high 33.3 per cent jobless rate in the fourth quarter of 2020. Under the revised system, the NBS defines employed persons as those in paid jobs and who worked for at least one hour in the last seven days, and considers underemployment as those working less than 40 hours a week and declaring themselves willing and available to work. The NBS said the revised data “aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.”

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     As defined by the ILO, an unemployed person is a person aged 15 or over who simultaneously meets three conditions: being unemployed for a given week; being available to take a job within two weeks; having actively sought a job in the last four weeks or having found one starting in less than three months.

     The latest Nigeria unemployment report has raised some believability questions. The Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, gave the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS), Q4 2022 & Q1 2023. Critics were quick to raise issues about how unemployment could suddenly decline from 33.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 to 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 4.1%. NBS Director, Publications and Public Relations, Mr. Wakil Ibrahim, explained that the data was not of unemployment but that of hours at work. He explained that the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) was conducted by the NBS in collaboration with the World Bank (WB) and the ILO in response to the labour market dynamics. According to him, the report covers the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, presenting an in-depth analysis of key labour market indicators including unemployment, underemployment, informal employment and hours worked.

    Explaining the

    new methodology

    The NBS, in April 2023, announced that it would be changing the way it calculates the unemployment rate. It said the new approach, which would align with the International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) guidelines, was expected to reveal a sharp drop in the country’s job data. Since it was released, the report has drawn flaks, with many analysts quizzing the accuracy of the new methodology. The new figures may lead to an underestimation of the true level of unemployment crisis in the country, they argued.

     In the old methodology, the ‘unemployed’ were categorised as people of working age who worked below 20 hours or did not work but searched and was available in the reference week. However, under the new NBS methodology, if you have not worked in the past seven days, have been looking for work in the past four weeks, and are ready to start work, you are considered unemployed.  Also, in the old methodology, the NBS sampled 33,300 households quarterly; while the new approach adopted a sample size of 35,520 households spread across 12 months. The old system data collection was between 17-21 days every quarter; while data was collected continuously for a period of 12 months under the new methodology.

     The NBS said some people who were previously classified as unemployed are now categorised as employed. How?  The new methodology does not require people to have worked for at least 20 hours per week to be considered employed. As a result, people who are working in the informal sector, or who are only able to find part-time work, are now classified as employed.

    The NBS, he said, embarked on a revision of the methodology through the adoption of the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) “Resolution concerning statistics of work, employment, unemployment, and labour under-utilisation,” and the latest International Labour Organisation (ILO) model questionnaire which includes unemployment among persons engaged in “Own Consumption work.” He explained that the revised methodology aligns with that of Nigeria’s neighbours in Africa such as Ghana, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Benin Republic, Gambia, etc., in line with international best practices.

     The NBS boss explained further that the enhanced methodology, which was informed by the need to produce comparable labour statistics, focuses on the review of definitions and concepts, data collection, coverage, etc. According to him, “the revised methodology defines employed persons as those working for pay or profit and who worked for at least one hour in the last 7 days, and considers underemployed persons as those working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more. Unemployed persons are those not in employment but actively searching and are available for work (i.e. did nothing for pay or profit). In addition, working-age population covers ages 15 and above, and a distinction is made between commercial and subsistence agriculture in the revised methodology.”

     He also added that the old methodology defines the working-age population as those within the age bracket of 15-64 years, considering those working between 20 and 39 hours as underemployed, and those working between 1 and 19 hours as unemployed (including those who did nothing). Continuing, Adeniran explained that subsistence agriculture and temporary absentees from employment work were not properly represented in the old methodology. These improvements, among others, captured in the revised computations will make Nigeria’s Labour Force data comparable with other countries.

    Key highlights of the report

    The report showed that about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6% in Q4 2022 and 76.7% in Q1 2023. This indicates that most people were engaged in some type of job for at least one hour in a week, for pay or profit during the time under review. “The unemployment rate was 5.3% in Q4 2022 and 4.1% in Q1 2023.” This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.

     “Active search for employment in the NLFS refers to specific action individuals take within the previous four weeks to actively seek a job or start a business. Examples of such actions could include submitting job applications, attending job fairs, networking, reaching out to potential employers, and registering with employment agencies amongst others,” the NBS report said.

     The NBS boss said the share of wage employment was 13.4% in Q4 2022 and 11.8% in Q1 2023, while more Nigerians operate their own businesses or engaged in farming activities, recorded at 73.1% in Q4, 2022 and 75.4% in Q1, 2023. The report also revealed that about one-third (36.4% in Q4 2022 and 33.2% in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas. It pointed out that underemployment rate, which is the share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more, was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023.

     The rate of informal employment including agriculture among the employed Nigerians was 93.5 per cent in Q4 2022 and 92.6 per cent in Q1 2023.  “The report not only offers a snapshot of the current employment landscape but also provides a foundation for evidence-based policymaking. It’s an insight into labour market statistics to empower stakeholders to make informed decisions that can shape the country’s labour market and economy.”

     The Bureau in a similar the Bureau revealed that in the first quarter 2023, about 76.7% working – age Nigerians were employed. It added that the figure rose from the 73.6% recorded in the preceding quarter. This was contained in its summary of: “Nigeria Labour Force Survey Q4 2022 & Q1 2023.” The document explained that NBS has enhanced its methodology of collecting labour market data through the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS) in line with ILO guidelines. It noted that the data collection for the revised NLFS is based on a sample of 35,520 households nationwide.

     According to NBS, it is conducted continuously throughout the year, with national-level results produced quarterly and state-level results at the end of a full year. “The results presented in this report are for the reference periods of Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. About three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6% in Q4 2022 and 76.7% in Q1 2023.”

     The International Labour Organisation (ILO) sees an hour at work in a week as employment, yet backtracking to submit that the data is not about employment but about hour at work. In other words, the NBS seems to have lost its believability in the framework of semantics. Following the ILO standard, NBS reduced the hours from 20 to an hour. Alluding to the ILO, Ibrahim submitted that whoever works for an hour in a week is deemed employed. “We were using 20 hours before. And the ILO has passed that one. They have brought it to one hour. If you work for one hour in a week, then you are employed,” he said.

    According to him, one hour at work was used to calculate the rate that culminated in 4.1 per cent. “It is the hours that were reduced from 20 hours as working hours to one hour. That is what was released. And we got that figure from which unemployment reduced from 33% to 4.1 per cent. It is the hours that were reduced from the 20 hours as working hours to one hour. That is what was reduced and we got that figure. There are different methodologies. It is not the same methodology. It is from one hour employment that we got 5.3% and from 20 hours we got 33.3 per cent.”

     The NBS spokesman pointed out that the methodology served as a peer review mechanism to put Nigeria on a labour scale with its counterparts in Africa: Ghana, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Benin Republic, and Gambia. He said from 20 hours at work, the NBS arrived at 33.3 per cent unemployment rate which ought to have been the news. That is the news but the way you people (media) reported it that it reduced from 33.3 per cent to 4 per cent, it is incorrect. It is not unemployment. We are talking about hours of work. From 20 hours to one hour as it is from the ILO International as definition of labour.”  

  • NBS: Inflation rises to 11.40% in May

    Inflation rate rose to 11.40 per cent (year-on-year) in May 2019 according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report.

    According to the report, this is 0.03 per cent points higher than the rate recorded in April 2019 (11.37 per cent).  Increases were recorded in all 12 Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions, that yielded the Headline index. On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.11 per cent in May. This is 0.17 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in April 2019 (0.94 percent).

    “The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12 months period ending May 2019, over the average of the CPI for the previous 12 months period was 11.30 per cent, 0.01 per cent points from 11.31 per cent recorded in April 2019. The urban inflation rate increased by 11.76 per cent (year-on-year) in May 2019 from 11.70 per cent recorded in April 2019, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.07 per cent in May from 11.08 per cent in April. On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.15 percent in May, up by 0.15 points from 1.00 per cent recorded in April 2019, while the rural index also rose by 1.07 per cent in May 2019, up by 0.17 from the rate recorded in April 2019 (0.90 per cent).

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    “The corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index was 11.66 per cent in May. This is less than the 11.69 per cent reported in April, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in May is 10.99 per cent compared to 11.00 per cent recorded in April.

    The composite food index rose by 13.79 per cent in May 2019 compared to 13.70 per cent in April 2019. This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of meat, oils and fats, bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, milk, cheese and egg, and vegetables. On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.41 percent in May 2019, up by 0.27 percent points from 1.14 percent recorded in April 2019. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending May 2019 over the previous twelve-month average was 13.37 percent, 0.03 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2019 (13.34 percent),” NBS said.

    The ”All items less farm produce” or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 9.0 per cent in May down by 0.3 per cent when compared with 9.3 per cent recorded in April. On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.75 per cent in May. This was up by 0.05 per cent when compared with 0.70 per cent recorded in April. The highest increases were recorded in prices of domestic and household services, tobacco, actual and imputed rentals for housing, medical, dental and hospital services, cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, repair and hire of footwear and repair of household appliance. The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 9.77 per cent for the twelve-month period ending May 2019; this is 0.14 percent points lower than 9.91 percent recorded in April 2019.

  • NBS says Akwa Ibom had highest unemployment in Q3, 2018

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Akwa Ibom reported the highest unemployment rate of 37.7 per cent in third quarter 2018.

    NBS said this in its Labour Force Statistics – Volume 2: Unemployment and Underemployment by State for Third Quarter, 2018 posted on its website.

    The bureau said that Rivers was the second highest reported unemployment rate with 36.4 per cent followed by Bayelsa with 32.6 per cent.

    Also, Abia recorded 31.6 per cent and Borno reported 31.4 per cent unemployment rate in the quarter under review.

    The report said the top five states with the highest unemployed population were Rivers (1,673,991), Akwa Ibom (1,357,754), Kano (1,257,130), Lagos (1,088,352) and Kaduna with (940,480).

    It said among these five states with the highest unemployed population, Lagos state reported the lowest rate of 14.6 per cent during the quarter.

    Meanwhile, the bureau said Katsina State, Jigawa, Kaduna State and Yobe recorded the highest underemployment rates of 39.5, 38.1, 31.0 and 30.0 per cent.

    It said the national unemployment rate for the quarter was 23.1 per cent while the underemployment rate was 20.1 per cent.

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    The report said between third quarter, 2017 and third quarter of 2018, only nine states recorded a reduction in their unemployment rates despite an increase in the national unemployment rate.

    The states included: Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Imo, Kaduna, Kogi, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ondo and Rivers; the same states recorded reduction in their combined unemployment and underemployment rates.

    The report said six states recorded the highest gains in net full time employment between third quarter, 2017 and second quarter, 2018.

    The states were Lagos adding 740,146 net full time jobs, Rivers (235,438), Imo (197,147), Ondo (142,514), Enugu (122,333), Kaduna with 118,929 jobs.

    The report presents the state breakdown of the results of the Labour Force Survey earlier published by NBS.

    According to NBS, unemployment and underemployment rates vary across states due to the nature of economic activity predominant in each State.

    States with higher focus on seasonal agriculture tend to have higher rates of underemployment compared to unemployment.

    This may swing from high full-time employment during periods of planting and harvest, when they are fully engaged on their farms to periods of high underemployment and even unemployment at other periods in between.

    Meanwhile, states with a higher propensity for women to be housewives or stay home husbands or that have negative attitudes to working tend to have lower unemployment rates.

    The women tend to have lower unemployment rate as they are not considered part of the labour force in the first place and as such have no bearing on the rate of unemployment.

    On the methodology for arriving at the figures, the bureau said the total population in Nigeria was divided into labour force (currently active) and non-labour force (not currently active).

    The labour force population covers all persons aged 15 years to 64 years who are willing and able to work regardless of whether they have a job or not.

    The definition of unemployment, therefore, covers persons (aged 15–64 years) who during the reference period were currently available for work, actively seeking for work but were without work.

    The non-labour force includes population below 15 yearsvor older than 64 years as well as those within the economically active population. (NAN)

  • Price of imported rice drops in March – NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said average price of one kilogramme (kg) of rice (imported high quality sold loose) decreased month-on-month in March.

    The NBS said this in its “Selected Food Price Watch (March 2019)’’ report released on its website.

    The bureau said rice price decreased year-on-year by -0.39 per cent and decreased month-on-month by -0.68 per cent to N361.90 in March from N364.38 in February.

    Similarly, the bureau said average price of one kg of yam tuber decreased year-on-year by -21.07 per cent and month-on month by -2.71 per cent to N200.88 in March from N206.48 in February.

    Also, it said average price of one dozen of Agric eggs medium size decreased year-on-year by -12.80 per cent and month-on-month by -0.96 per cent to N459.80 in March from N464.26 in February.

    In addition, it said average price of piece of Agric eggs medium size (price of one) increased year-on-year by 1.73 per cent and decrease month-on-month by -0.74 per cent to N41.91 in March from N42.23 in February.

    According to the report, the average price of one kg of tomato decreased year-on-year by -10.03 per cent and month-on-month by -6.32 per cent to N240.29 in March from N256.50 in February.

    The NBS said field work for the report was done by over 700 NBS staff in all states of the federation supported by supervisors who were monitored by internal and external observers.

    Prices were collected across all the 774 local governments of the federation and the FCT from over 10,000 respondents and locations; they reflected actual prices households stated they actually bought those items.

    The average of all these prices was then reported for each state and average for the country was the average for the state.

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  • Inflation drops by 0.06 % in March – NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the country’s inflation measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March was 0.06 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in February.

    The NBS said this in its “CPI and Inflation Report’’ released on Tuesday in Abuja.

    The bureau said the CPI which measures inflation decreased to 11.25 per cent (year-on-year) in March, 2019.

    According to the bureau, this is 0.06 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in February, 2019 (11.31) per cent.

    It, however, said increases were recorded in all Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the Headline index.

    On month-on-month basis, the bureau said the Headline Index increased by 0.79 per cent in March 2019, this was 0.06 per cent rate higher than the rate recorded in February 2019 (0.73) per cent.

    The Report said the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the period of 12 months ending in March over the previous 12 months was 11.40 per cent.

    It said the figure showed 0.16 per cent point from 11.56 per cent recorded in February.

    Meanwhile, the bureau said the urban inflation rate increased by 11.54 per cent (year-on-year) in March from 11.59 per cent recorded in February 2019.

    It said the rural inflation rate increased by 10.99 per cent in March from 11.05 per cent in February.

    On a month-on-month basis, it said the urban index rose by 0.81 per cent in March 2019, up by 0.05 from 0.76 per cent recorded in February.

    Also, it said the rural index rose by 0.77 per cent in March, up by 0.06 from the rate recorded in February (0.71) per cent.

    According to the report, the corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 11.78 per cent in March.

    This is less than 11.95 per cent reported in February while the corresponding rural inflation rate in March is 11.08 per cent compared to 11.23 per cent recorded in February.

    The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living.

    The construction of the CPI combines economic theory, sampling and other statistical techniques using data from other surveys to produce a weighted measure of average price changes in the Nigerian economy.

    The weighting occurs to capture the importance of the selected commodities in the entire index.