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  • NESG projects 5.5 per cent GDP growth for Nigeria

    NESG projects 5.5 per cent GDP growth for Nigeria

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.5 per cent for this year, contingent on implementation of what it called the “Consolidation Phase” of the Federal Government‘s economic transformation roadmap. This is a major highlight of the Group’s latest macroeconomic outlook and marked a significant improvement from the estimated 3.8 per cent growth recorded in 2025.

    The Chief Executive, NESG, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, noted: “Nigeria enters 2026 at a crucial point in its economic journey. Two years of bold and often challenging reforms are beginning to deliver results: inflation is easing, and the foreign exchange market is stabilising. These improvements signal a clear break from the crisis conditions of the past.”

    However, Aduloju cautioned that stabilisation alone is insufficient. “The choices made in 2026 will determine whether recent reforms are institutionalised and translated into broad-based welfare improvements, or whether fragile gains are eroded by policy inconsistency, reform fatigue, and implementation gaps,” he warned.

    The report highlighted remarkable progress in controlling inflation, which fell from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 14.5 per cent by November 2025—a striking 20-percentage-point improvement. This represents the lowest inflation rate since May 2022.

    Read Also: Raw materials bill dangerous for trade, says CPPE

    Under the optimal consolidation pathway, the NESG forecasted inflation will decline further to 16 percent in 2026, eventually reaching single digits by 2029. The trajectory, it indicated, depends on maintaining tight monetary policy, improving agricultural productivity, and ensuring exchange rate stability.

    According to it, the Central Bank has already begun adjusting its stance, cutting the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points in 2025 to balance inflation control with the need to support credit growth. Following this, it observes that business cost pressures have also moderated significantly, with the NESG’s Cost of Doing Business Index falling to 54.7 points by December 2025, firmly in the “deceleration zone.”

    The report noted that the s foreign exchange market has shown marked improvement following the controversial unification reforms implemented in mid-2023. “The naira stabilised at approximately ₦1,505 to the dollar in the official market by end-2025, with the gap between official and parallel market rates narrowing to less than 3 per cent. Foreign reserves reached a seven-year high of $45.5 billion in 2025, up from $40.9 billion in 2024, driven by successful oversubscribed Eurobond issuance and improved investor confidence. S&P Global upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating from stable to positive in 2025, reflecting renewed confidence in the reform trajectory.”

    While overall growth has improved, the report revealed significant disparities across sectors.

    The services sector led growth, contributing 60.4 per cent to GDP expansion in 2025, while industry contributed 21.8 per cent and agriculture just 17.8 per cent.

    The oil sector, it added, posted robust growth of 9.4 per cent, reflecting increased production. However, manufacturing growth remained anaemic at around 1.5 per cent, hampered by high borrowing costs, unreliable power supply, and infrastructure deficits.

    “Growth remains below the level required for meaningful job creation and poverty reduction. Fiscal pressures continue to constrain development spending, productivity in agriculture and manufacturing sectors is subdued, and cost-of-living pressures remain elevated,” the report noted.

    According to it, federal government revenue improved to ₦13.7 trillion in the first seven months of 2025, with non-oil tax revenues performing strongly at 93.2 per cent of targets. However, oil revenue significantly underperformed, reaching only 37.8 per cent of projections.

    More troubling is the fiscal burden of debt servicing, which reached ₦9.8 trillion in the same period—exceeding budgeted allocations by 16.7 per cent. Meanwhile, capital expenditure was slashed, falling 73.7 per cent below projections. Public debt reached a historic high of ₦152.4 trillion by mid-2025, up from ₦144.7 trillion in 2024. The NESG’s Debt Burden Index increased to 71.6 points, signalling heightened repayment pressures and refinancing risks.

    The report outlined two starkly different scenarios for the nation’s economic future. The “Optimal Consolidation Pathway” assumes rigorous implementation of reforms across four pillars: macroeconomic anchoring, structural transformation, institutional strengthening, and social inclusion. “This pathway would deliver 5.5 per cent growth in 2026, rising to 8.5 per cent by 2029—sufficient to lift approximately 100 million Nigerians out of poverty. It requires sustaining positive real interest rates, expanding manufacturing and agricultural productivity, operationalising special economic zones, and dramatically expanding social protection. The alternative “Sub-Optimal Pathway” assumes weak or fragmented implementation, resulting in renewed macroeconomic fragility, slower growth, and persistently high inflation. Under this scenario, investor confidence weakens, fiscal and external buffers come under renewed pressure, and social tensions rise as reform benefits fail to materialise.”

    For this year, the NESG identified several urgent priorities including introducing a clear inflation-targeting framework by the Central Bank, implementing new tax laws transparently through stakeholder consultation, continuing foreign exchange market liberalisation, and fast-tracking infrastructure projects through public-private partnerships.

    The report also called for launching a National Apprenticeship and Skill-Transfer Programme, providing tax breaks for companies establishing certified apprenticeship programmes to address youth unemployment.

    “The task before all stakeholders is to transform stabilisation into shared prosperity, restore confidence in long-term investment, and ensure that economic progress translates into improved livelihoods for all Nigerians,” Aduloju said.

  • EU, NESG unveil framework for food security

    EU, NESG unveil framework for food security

    The European Union (EU) and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) have unveiled policy frameworks and documents aimed at revitalising agricultural production, strengthening food security and raising farmers’ incomes, signalling a decisive shift toward more interventionist strategies to cushion agriculture from global volatility.

    In Europe, the push follows an extraordinary meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers on January 7, where the European Commission elevated food security to a core pillar of the Union’s broader security and sovereignty agenda. Confronted with market uncertainty, climate pressures and persistently high input costs, the Commission announced a mix of financial backing and regulatory safeguards to stabilise farm incomes while sustaining large-scale production.

    At the centre of the plan is the protection of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) budget, including a proposed National and Regional Partnership Fund of 293.7 billion euros to ensure predictable income support and long-term investment capacity for farmers across the bloc.

    The Commission also moved to double its crisis reserve through a new €6.3 billion Unity Safety Net to shield farmers from natural disasters, climate shocks and animal diseases.

    READ ALSO; Still on Nigeria’s re-designation as ‘country of particular concern’

    Recognising the strategic importance of farm inputs, Brussels proposed temporary tariff reductions on ammonia and urea to ease fertiliser costs and improve availability. Member States will also be able to strengthen rural development spending through new National and Regional Partnership Plans, while a semi-automatic “handbrake” mechanism will allow the EU to respond swiftly to import surges that threaten domestic producers. An implementation dialogue scheduled for the first quarter of 2026 will assess the cumulative impact of environmental regulations on farmers.

    EU Commissioner for Agriculture and Food, Christophe Hansen, stressed that farming remains central to Europe’s strategic autonomy. “Farming and the agri-food sector are essential for European sovereignty and strategic autonomy. And the Common Agricultural Policy is our core instrument to support farmers. In the future CAP, farmers’ income support is safeguarded and guaranteed,” he said.

    Hansen explained that, beyond a minimum €300 billion ring-fenced for farmers in the next EU budget, at least 10 per cent of each National and Regional Partnership Plan would be dedicated to rural development, amounting to about €49 billion, and potentially rising to almost €63 billion when catalyst loans are included. “We also proposed to Member States to mobilise an additional €45 billion to support farmers and rural communities,” he added, noting that agriculture would further benefit from the European Competitiveness Fund and a €40 billion research programme covering biotech, the bioeconomy, health and agriculture.

    On fertiliser policy, EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maroš Šefčovič, warned that costs remain dangerously high despite recent stabilisation. “While prices have stabilised, fertiliser costs remain around 60 per cent higher than in 2020. That is simply not sustainable,” he said. According to him, the Commission will propose the temporary suspension of remaining MFN tariffs on ammonia, urea and, where necessary, other fertilisers. “Robust safeguards will ensure that this relief is well-targeted and that its benefits flow directly to farmers,” he added.

    In Nigeria, a parallel sense of urgency emerged at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31), where policymakers and business leaders rallied around agriculture and agribusiness as engines of industrialisation and competitiveness. The summit concluded with a mandate to build a prosperous and inclusive Nigeria by 2030, anchored on a shift from a consumption-driven economy to a production-based one.

    The NESG framework prioritises infrastructure, innovation and regional integration, with a strong emphasis on value-chain development rather than raw commodity exports. Participants underscored the need to institutionalise policy coherence and execution discipline to end frequent reversals that have long undermined agricultural growth. Digital tools, improved access to finance and targeted reforms were identified as critical to unlocking agribusiness potential.

    To ensure that reforms deliver tangible gains for farmers, the NESG called on federal and state governments to deepen decentralisation, empower local governments and strengthen accountability frameworks for agricultural funding. The group also advocated a decisive shift toward value-added processing and agro-industrial development.

    As part of its reform push, the summit proposed scaling up a Citizen Delivery Tracker to monitor government performance on agricultural commitments, while integrating socio-economic interventions with security operations to protect farming communities from regional disparities and exclusion.

  • NESG: Mixed picture on business confidence

    NESG: Mixed picture on business confidence

    Nigeria’s business environment extended its expansion streak into a twelfth consecutive month in December 2025, although rising uncertainty and mounting structural constraints softened the pace of growth, according to the latest Business Confidence Monitor released by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).

    The report, titled “Rising Uncertainty Dampens Nigeria’s Current Business Conditions,” showed that the Current Business Performance Index moderated to 112.0 points in December from 113.3 points in November, but remained firmly above the expansion threshold and stood 11.2 points higher than its level a year earlier.

     NESG said the outcome confirmed that “Nigeria’s business environment sustained its 12-month consecutive expansion streak, although the Current Business Performance Index moderated slightly in December 2025.”

    Despite the expansion,  the group said businesses faced what the report described as “binding constraints,” including limited access to finance, inadequate power supply, policy uncertainty, high rental costs and persistent exchange-rate pressures.

    READ ALSO: Reading Nigeria’s governance signals

    These factors, NESG noted, combined to dampen confidence and slow activity across several sectors even as overall performance stayed positive.

    Agriculture ,it noted ,emerged as the standout performer, with its business performance index rising sharply by 9.6 points to 112.9, driven by seasonal sales and stronger activity in crop production, livestock and agro-allied segments. The report observed that the rebound reflected “heightened business activities within key food-producing segments and underscores the high seasonal demand for agricultural output in this period of the year.”

    According to it, manufacturing also recorded a modest improvement, climbing to 117.9 points, supported by food and beverages, textiles, plastics, paper products and electricals. However, NESG cautioned that manufacturers continued to grapple with “inadequate electricity supply, persistent insecurity, shortages of raw materials, rising input prices, and weakening sales,” challenges that were eroding margins and constraining investment.

    By contrast, Trade, Services and Non-Manufacturing sectors all saw slower momentum compared with November. Trade remained the most upbeat in absolute terms at 123.8 points, but the index eased as “weak consumer demand and cautious spending dampened business performance during the month,” despite seasonal sales.

     Services slipped for a second straight month to 104.3 points, reflecting weaker activity in broadcasting, real estate and professional services, while Non-Manufacturing moderated to 110.2 points amid lingering structural bottlenecks.

    Key sub-indices such as production, demand conditions, supply orders, access to credit and cash flow all recorded moderate declines, pointing to what NESG described as “a more cautious business stance and subdued consumer demand.” At the same time, the cost of doing business climbed sharply to 61.6 points from 54.3 in November, underscoring the pressure from rising operating expenses.

    Looking ahead, it indicated that optimism about near-term conditions remained intact but softened.

    The Future Business Expectation Index dipped to 132.6 points from 134.8, still above its December 2024 level.

    NESG said the outlook reflected “uncertainty around anticipated policy reforms, a less supportive operating climate, and negative spillovers from electoral developments,” even as higher production levels and improved supply orders offered some offset.

    According to it,trade recorded the highest future optimism, followed by manufacturing, while services posted the weakest expectations.

    Overall, the report concluded that cautious optimism persists, supported by seasonal activity, relative exchange-rate stability and infrastructure investment, but warned that sustaining momentum would depend on tackling long-standing constraints that continue to weigh on the  business climate.

  • Nigeria must create 27 million new jobs by 2030 — NESG warns

    Nigeria must create 27 million new jobs by 2030 — NESG warns

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that Nigeria must create at least 27 million new formal jobs by the year 2030—equivalent to 4.5 million jobs annually—to prevent unemployment from worsening as the nation’s working-age population expands to 168 million within the decade.

    This was contained in a new report by the NESG titled “From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria,” launched at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31) in Abuja.

    The report calls for an urgent and coordinated national response to tackle unemployment, raise productivity, and drive economic transformation. It warned that without decisive action, unemployment and underemployment could double by the end of the decade, trapping millions of Nigerians in low-skilled, low-paying, and vulnerable work.

    According to the NESG, the future of Nigeria’s workforce depends on how quickly the country can move from a “hustle economy” dominated by informal activities to one that delivers decent and productive employment.

    Speaking at the summit, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, Chairman of the NESG, said Nigeria’s next phase of reform must focus on job creation, productivity, and inclusive growth.

    “The challenge before us is to move decisively into the consolidation phase, embedding reforms in ways that drive jobs, growth, and inclusion, while simultaneously laying the foundations for long-term transformation that secures prosperity for every Nigerian,” Yusuf said.

    He stated that while past policies had concentrated on macroeconomic stabilization, the time has come to translate those efforts into sustained job creation and real improvements in living standards.

    Presenting the report, Dr. Wilson Erumebor, Senior Economist at the NESG, said the jobs crisis in Nigeria has gone beyond the question of employment numbers and now represents a fundamental development challenge.

    “This is not just a labour market issue; it is a huge development challenge,” Erumebor said. “Without decisive reforms to create decent and productive jobs, an entire generation risks being trapped in vulnerable work that neither lifts families out of poverty nor moves the nation forward.”

    He warned that the structure of Nigeria’s economy has created a situation where the vast majority of citizens depend on informal, insecure work to survive.

    “The weak private sector capacity and reliance on the government for wage employment in some states have left millions of Nigerians with the option of finding work in the informal economy,” he said. “The informal sector has become the default employer, absorbing a significant share of the country’s workforce.”

    Erumebor noted that informal jobs, often characterised by low pay, limited security, and minimal productivity, accounted for 92.2 percent of total employment in 2023 and rose to 93 percent in the second quarter of 2024.

    He described this trend as alarming, adding that it reflects “the limited private and public investment in sectors that can deliver quality jobs at scale.”

    Citing data from the report, Erumebor revealed that “a review of informality across the country shows that in more than 18 Nigerian states, informal employment accounts for over 94 percent of total employment. In states such as Kebbi, Abia, Benue, and Borno, the shares are as high as 98 percent, 97.4 percent, 97.3 percent, and 97.3 percent, respectively.”

    According to him, “this scale of informality has huge implications. Not only does it limit the country’s productivity growth, but it also undermines revenue mobilisation, particularly taxes.”

    He added that workers in the informal economy “often lack social protection, healthcare, pensions, and legal rights, leaving them highly vulnerable to economic shocks. For many workers, daily earnings are not stable, and job security is not guaranteed.”

    To tackle these challenges, the report introduced the Nigeria Works Framework, a blueprint designed to reposition Nigeria’s economy around productivity, enterprise, and inclusive growth.

    The framework lays out a comprehensive Jobs and Productivity Agenda, focusing on the development of skills for productivity, sectoral engines of growth, enterprise-led development (especially for small businesses), upgrading the informal economy, strengthening data and institutional systems, and promoting productivity as the foundation of national prosperity.

    According to the report, the framework will serve as a guide for policymakers, the private sector, and development partners to create quality jobs and raise living standards over the next decade.

    Erumebor said the NESG envisions “a Nigeria where productivity becomes the central metric of national competitiveness—tracked, measured, and elevated as the foundation of shared prosperity.”

    The report identified manufacturing, construction, information and communications technology (ICT), and professional services as the sectors with the greatest potential for large-scale job creation and productivity growth.

    It stressed that investing in these sectors could accelerate industrialization, drive innovation, and generate millions of decent jobs, particularly for young Nigerians entering the labour market each year.

    The NESG urged the Federal Government, state governments, and the private sector to treat job creation and productivity improvement as national priorities, noting that these are the true pillars of economic resilience and social stability.

    “The scale of the challenge demands bold, coordinated action,” the report stated. “Nigeria must adopt a productivity-led growth strategy that expands decent work opportunities and ensures that no citizen is left behind.”

    The report also reaffirmed the NESG’s commitment to supporting the implementation of practical policy measures that will strengthen the link between economic growth and employment outcomes.

    “Nigeria’s population will reach 275 million by 2030,” it stated. “To stabilise unemployment at current levels, the country must create 27 million new jobs between 2025 and 2030. Productivity must therefore become the central focus of national planning.”

  • NES #31 to spotlight infrastructure as key driver of competitiveness

    NES #31 to spotlight infrastructure as key driver of competitiveness

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has disclosed that this year’s deliberations at the Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31) will place infrastructure at the heart of Nigeria’s economic reform agenda.

    The summit, scheduled for October 6th to 8th, 2025, under the sub-theme “Building Infrastructure for Competitiveness,” will examine how modern and resilient infrastructure can reduce business costs, attract investment, and improve the quality of life for citizens.

    NESG, in a statement by its Acting Head, Strategic Communication & Advocacy, Ayanyinka Ayanlowo, stressed that infrastructure development extends beyond physical structures, serving as the foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.

    According to the statement, inadequate facilities in transport, power, water supply, and digital connectivity have long hampered productivity and discouraged private sector participation.

    It noted that the NES #31 will focus on unlocking practical solutions to Nigeria’s infrastructure deficits while positioning infrastructure as a driver of industrial productivity, regional trade, and improved social outcomes.

    “The Summit is expected to highlight innovative financing models, public-private partnerships, and climate-smart technologies as pathways to closing Nigeria’s infrastructure gap.

    In alignment with the overarching theme, “Sustaining Reforms for Prosperity and Inclusive Development,” the infrastructure sessions will address: mobilising capital and private sector expertise for infrastructure delivery, leveraging reforms to streamline procurement and project execution.

    Read Also: NESG seeks reforms to sustain growth, development

    Also, expanding climate-smart and digital infrastructure investments, strengthening institutional capacity in planning and governance and advancing regional integration and interoperability across Africa.

    The NESG emphasised that building competitive infrastructure is not solely the responsibility of the government but requires collaboration with private stakeholders.

    “NES #31 will provide a platform to foster such partnerships, to deliver high-impact projects that transform the economy and promote social inclusion.

    “This year’s discussions align with its arc of the possible strategy, which prioritises infrastructure development as a short-term focus (2025–2026), a medium-term driver of productivity (2025–2030), and a foundation for long-term reforms to achieve inclusive prosperity.

  • Nigeria’s development depends more on values than policies – NESG

    Nigeria’s development depends more on values than policies – NESG

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), in partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, on Thursday convened the Kaduna edition of its Development as Attitude: A National Dialogue Series, stressing that Nigeria’s growth depends more on values and collective mindset than on policies alone.

    Held at the historic Arewa House, the dialogue drew policymakers, academics, private sector leaders and development experts to interrogate the cultural, institutional and attitudinal factors driving—or stalling—national development.

    The series is anchored on Development as Attitude, a book by Prof. Osita Ogbu, Co-Chair of NESG’s National Economic Advisory Council, who insisted that development is not just an economic process but a societal mindset shift.

    Prof. Ogbu said his decades of research show that Nigeria’s persistent challenges stem less from lack of ideas and more from failure to cultivate values of accountability, responsibility and shared purpose.

    “Professors are supposed to write, but sometimes you find even professors not concerned with welfare,” he noted. “When I reflect on the work I did 30 years ago, I still see the same misalignment and unemployment. What has been missing is a deeper understanding of how people themselves are getting into problems.”

    Governor Uba Sani, represented by Mr. Lawal Al-Hassan Habib, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Finance, said the Hamilton Project strongly aligns with Kaduna’s reforms in governance, fiscal responsibility and inclusive growth.

    Read Also: NESG to spotlight industrialisation at 31st Nigerian Economic Summit

    He stressed that true progress goes beyond financial management, noting that “our destiny is shaped by how Nigerians think, act and pursue excellence collectively.” He expressed confidence that the dialogue would inspire fresh ideas and reinforce a culture of accountability, innovation and resilience.

    Former Presidential Adviser, Dr. Habiba Lawal, urged leaders to build consensus and use resources equitably, warning that development without integrity, transparency and honesty is unsustainable. She said courageous leaders must be willing to take tough but necessary decisions for the long-term good.

    Economist and former Minister, Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, acknowledged Nigeria’s 26 years of uninterrupted democracy as progress but lamented the absence of a true social contract. He argued that governments must provide security, education and healthcare in exchange for citizens’ taxes and civic responsibility.

    Prof. Maryam Abdu of Kaduna State University cautioned against leadership without vision or accountability, stressing that the lack of integrity fuels corruption and undermines development. She insisted leadership must be a deliberate choice guided by foresight and structured plans.

    President of Kaduna Chamber of Commerce, ESV Ishaya Idi, added that without visionary leaders and a coherent national plan, development efforts risk being “poorly designed and ineffective.”

    Participants agreed that Nigeria’s development requires a collective mindset shift—from dependence to responsibility, from rhetoric to action, and from short-term fixes to long-term solutions. The Kaduna dialogue reinforced the Hamilton Project’s goal of embedding development as a lived culture rather than a distant aspiration.

  • NESG to spotlight industrialisation at 31st Nigerian Economic Summit

    NESG to spotlight industrialisation at 31st Nigerian Economic Summit

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has said Nigeria’s economic prosperity depends on a deliberate shift from a consumption-driven model to a production-based economy.

    As a result, the NESG said it will dedicate the upcoming 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES #31) to charting this transition.

    The summit is scheduled to gather industry leaders, policymakers, financiers, development partners, and entrepreneurs, who will focus on how the country can develop globally competitive industries anchored in innovation, local content, and enabling infrastructure.

    In a statement issued on Tuesday in Abuja, Ms. Ayanyinka Ayanlowo, Acting Head of Strategic Communication and Advocacy at the NESG, said the decision to invite such a broad range of stakeholders was informed by the urgent need to reposition Nigeria’s economy for sustainable growth.

    “Nigeria’s path to prosperity hinges on its ability to transition from a consumption-driven to a production-based economy,” she said.

    Ayanlowo noted that despite Nigeria’s large population and abundant natural resources, the country continues to contend with deindustrialisation, an overdependence on imports, and limited value addition in critical sectors.

    “IIndustrialisation offers a strategic solution to these challenges by unlocking the country’s manufacturing potential, enhancing productivity, and strengthening linkages across agriculture, extractives, and services,” she explained.

    Read Also: NESG wants oil and gas to drive Nigeria’s industrial growth

    According to her, the NES #31 will address these concerns under the theme Driving Industrialisation-led Growth. The discussions will include how to review and modernise Nigeria’s industrial strategies to align with contemporary global and regional developments, particularly the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the growing importance of digital transformation. Participants will also consider ways to improve the competitiveness of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), recognising them as vital drivers of innovation, job creation, and industrial diversification.

    The summit will further examine how to promote backwards and forward integration in key sectors such as agribusiness, mining, and pharmaceuticals, to maximise local content and increase export potential. Another focus area will be leveraging Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies to boost productivity and enhance the competitiveness of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. Discussions will also explore how to catalyse private sector investment and deploy innovative financing models to unlock the capital required for sustained industrial growth.

    Ayanlowo said the summit’s strategic pillars—Reforms, Resilience, and Results—will guide all sessions, with particular attention on creating the regulatory and infrastructural foundations required for industrial take-off. “From streamlined business processes and improved power supply to trade facilitation and skills development, Nigeria must build resilient systems that deliver tangible results,” she stated.

    She stressed that industrialisation is not limited to setting up factories but is about fostering a national productivity ecosystem where skilled labour, reliable infrastructure, accessible finance, and supportive policies combine to generate wealth and opportunities for millions of Nigerians.

    “The journey to industrialisation requires more than rhetoric—it demands intentional collaboration across the public and private sectors,” Ayanlowo said.

    The NESG expressed confidence that NES #31 will provide a platform for concrete commitments and partnerships aimed at positioning Nigeria as the industrial powerhouse of West Africa.

  • FG decries delay in GDP rebasing, says it hampers policy planning, data credibility

    FG decries delay in GDP rebasing, says it hampers policy planning, data credibility

    The federal government has raised concerns over the delay in rebasing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), warning that it undermines policy effectiveness and compromises the reliability of economic data crucial for national decision-making.

    Speaking during a webinar hosted by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), themed “X-Raying the Data: Insights from the Rebased GDP Data”, Dr. Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, said the rebasing—last done in 2014—was long overdue.

    He emphasised that GDP rebasing should be conducted every five years in line with global best practices, noting that the updated figures now capture emerging sectors such as e-commerce, digital content creation, modular refineries, the blue economy, and informal trade.

    While the revised GDP significantly increases the economy’s reported size, Fasua suggested that it still underrepresents the true scale. “With all these new sectors factored in, our actual GDP could be closer to N500 trillion,” he said.

    Fasua highlighted the rising impact of digital platforms like YouTube, Spotify, and other content-based services in driving economic activity—areas previously excluded from national data but now incorporated into the services sector.

    He added that the larger GDP base provides room for a more accommodative monetary policy. With Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio now around 40 percent—well below the ECOWAS threshold of 60 percent and the World Bank’s 70 percent ceiling—there is increased fiscal space.

    According to him, this improved outlook could allow the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to consider reducing interest rates to spur industrial growth and support productive sectors of the economy.

    However, he cautioned that the space created by the larger GDP should not be interpreted as a license for indiscriminate borrowing. He stressed that any increase in debt must be paired with improvements in tax policy and government spending. Recent tax legislation, he noted, is beginning to reduce the burden on small businesses and low-income earners, while redirecting obligations toward higher-income individuals and more profitable enterprises. Additionally, he pointed to tighter restrictions on tax waivers, which previously allowed undue benefits for powerful interests.

    Fasua compared the GDP to a company’s balance sheet — a measure of borrowing capacity — but warned that this capacity must be used wisely. He called for the new economic data to be leveraged for structured development financing, not simply as a talking point or political win.

    He also urged greater institutional collaboration among ministries, departments, agencies, and the private sector in data collection and sharing. Reliable and timely statistics, he argued, are critical for effective economic governance and policy coherence.

    Yinka Babalola, Country Director Nigeria International Budget Partnership, took a more cautious view. While acknowledging the importance of accurate national statistics, she said the increase in GDP does not automatically improve the lives of everyday Nigerians. Rising economic numbers, she argued, do not mean food is cheaper, healthcare is better, or wages are higher.

    She described GDP as a limited metric that must be interpreted alongside other indicators to assess true social progress. While the updated GDP may improve Nigeria’s fiscal metrics — for example, by lowering the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP — it does not directly generate additional revenues or improve expenditure outcomes.

    According to Babalola, revenue mobilisation remains Nigeria’s most urgent fiscal challenge. Without better tax collection systems and broader coverage of the tax base, especially among middle- and high-income earners, the government risks relying too heavily on borrowing.

    She also drew attention to what GDP figures often leave out — particularly unpaid care work, which disproportionately involves women, and the country’s growing inequality. These exclusions, she said, contribute to a distorted view of national progress and obscure the challenges facing the majority of citizens.

    On the expenditure side, Babalola pointed to recurring issues with budget execution. She noted that many agencies fail to use their full allocations, not due to lack of need but because of weak capacity and poor project implementation. As a result, budget increases often fail to translate into real development impact.

    To address this, Babalola called for greater transparency in procurement, increased citizen involvement in budgeting processes, and more effective legislative and audit oversight. She argued that simplified, accessible budget information would enable communities to monitor public spending more effectively.

    Dr. Ekundayo Mesagan, Senior Faculty, Pan Atlantic University, welcomed the rebasing as a technical improvement that gives a more accurate picture of the economy’s structure. “The updated GDP figure has raised Nigeria’s per capita income from $800 to around $1,000.” Although he cautioned that this statistical shift does not imply a tangible improvement in living conditions.

    Mesagan said the inclusion of sectors such as information and communications technology (ICT), entertainment, and real estate makes the economy appear more diversified — a useful development for sector-specific planning and policy targeting. With better data on where growth is occurring, he said, policymakers can develop more precise interventions, particularly in youth-driven sectors.

    He advocated for a shift toward bottom-up economic planning that prioritises small businesses, informal enterprises, and emerging industries with strong employment potential. These segments, he argued, have a more direct impact on poverty reduction and household income growth.

    Read Also: FG commissions 100-bed Renewed Hope mother, child hospital in Akwa Ibom

    Mesagan backed recent tax reforms that exclude businesses earning below N50 million annually from corporate income tax, calling it a positive step. He proposed additional fiscal incentives and tailored credit schemes for micro-enterprises and low-income producers, which often face structural barriers to growth.

    He also urged policymakers to use the rebased data to improve poverty targeting and asset mapping, especially in underserved communities. According to Mesagan, accurate identification of vulnerable populations is key to ensuring that social intervention programmes are both efficient and impactful.

    While recognising the importance of updated data, he warned against mistaking statistical improvements for actual progress. Until broader issues like food insecurity, joblessness, and service delivery are addressed, the figures remain largely cosmetic.

    The consensus among the three experts is clear: the rebased GDP is a necessary statistical correction, but its real value will only be realised if it leads to meaningful policy change. Accurate data can help guide development, but without institutional reform, fiscal transparency, and inclusive planning, the benefits will remain largely on paper.

  • NESG wants oil and gas to drive industrial growth

    NESG wants oil and gas to drive industrial growth

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has called for urgent steps to use Nigeria’s oil and gas resources to boost industrial development, create jobs, and grow the economy in a more inclusive way.

    This call came during a high-level Pre-Summit dialogue held in Abuja with the theme, “Unlocking Industrial Growth Series: The Evolving Oil and Gas Ecosystem.”

    Engr. Mansur Ahmed, who serves as the Private Sector Co-Chair of the NESG Industrial Policy Commission, said the ongoing reforms in Nigeria provide a chance to rethink how the oil and gas industry can support long-term development and help the country move closer to building a strong industrial base.

    Mr. Kelvin Emmanuel, the Thematic Lead for Oil and Gas at NESG, pointed out that Nigeria still lags behind other African countries in industrial development. He lamented that Nigeria is ranked 8th on the African Industrialisation Index and 98th in the world on the UN’s Competitive Industrial Performance Index.

    In addition, Nigeria’s manufacturing value per person is just $216, compared to $645 in South Africa and $524 in Egypt. He explained that instead of helping the country grow its industries, Nigeria’s oil wealth has mostly supported a system where crude oil is extracted and exported without much local processing. He said this needs to change and called for proper implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and better alignment with Africa’s Agenda 2063.

    Read Also: NESG backs $1tr economy target

    Ms. Laura Ani, a legal expert and Co-Lead on Mining at the NESG Industrial Policy Commission, said Nigeria is at a turning point. She urged the country to stop seeing oil and gas only as a source of government revenue.

    According to her, the sector must now be used to support industries and innovation. She said this requires better planning and strong links between how Nigeria manages its natural resources and how it grows its economy.

    Speaking from an academic perspective, Dr. Aminu Abdullahi Isyaku of the University of Abuja said there is a need for stronger partnerships between government, universities, and private companies. He said research and development (R&D) should be a priority, not a luxury.

    Dr. Isyaku also called for better local content, meaning more goods and services in the sector should come from Nigerian businesses, and university courses should be designed to meet the needs of the industry.

    Mrs. Funmi Ogbue, CEO of Zigma Limited, shared insights from the private sector. She said Nigeria can learn from countries like Norway, where oil has been used to support industrial growth and technological development.

    She said Nigeria needs consistent policies, long-term contracts, support for exports, and serious investment in research and development. Ogbue warned that efforts that are poorly planned or influenced by politics will not achieve the desired results. Instead, government, industry, and researchers must work closely together for real progress to happen.

    Dr. Taiwo Ogunleye, a law professor at the Nigerian Institute of Advanced Legal Studies, said the main problem in the oil and gas sector is not the absence of good laws but the failure to implement existing ones.

    He said the Petroleum Industry Act already provides tools for industrial development, especially in areas like local business participation, licensing, research, and infrastructure.

    According to him, fully enforcing these parts of the law can help move the country toward its industrial goals.

    At the end of the session, participants agreed on the need to push forward a strong and clear industrial policy that makes the oil and gas sector a foundation for technology-driven growth. They also said Nigeria must align its plans with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to compete effectively across the region.

  • NESG wants oil and gas to drive Nigeria’s industrial growth

    NESG wants oil and gas to drive Nigeria’s industrial growth

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has called for urgent steps to use Nigeria’s oil and gas resources to boost industrial development, create jobs, and grow the economy in a more inclusive way. 

    This call came during a high-level Pre-Summit dialogue held in Abuja with the theme, “Unlocking Industrial Growth Series: The Evolving Oil and Gas Ecosystem.”

    Engr. Mansur Ahmed, who serves as the Private Sector Co-Chair of the NESG Industrial Policy Commission, said the ongoing reforms in Nigeria provide a chance to rethink how the oil and gas industry can support long-term development and help the country move closer to building a strong industrial base.

    Mr. Kelvin Emmanuel, the Thematic Lead for Oil and Gas at NESG, pointed out that Nigeria still lags behind other African countries in industrial development. He lamented that Nigeria is ranked 8th on the African Industrialisation Index and 98th in the world on the UN’s Competitive Industrial Performance Index. 

    In addition, Nigeria’s manufacturing value per person is just $216, compared to $645 in South Africa and $524 in Egypt. He explained that instead of helping the country grow its industries, Nigeria’s oil wealth has mostly supported a system where crude oil is extracted and exported without much local processing. He said this needs to change and called for proper implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and better alignment with Africa’s Agenda 2063.

    Ms. Laura Ani, a legal expert and Co-Lead on Mining at the NESG Industrial Policy Commission, said Nigeria is at a turning point. She urged the country to stop seeing oil and gas only as a source of government revenue. 

    According to her, the sector must now be used to support industries and innovation. She said this requires better planning and strong links between how Nigeria manages its natural resources and how it grows its economy.

    Speaking from an academic perspective, Dr. Aminu Abdullahi Isyaku of the University of Abuja said there is a need for stronger partnerships between government, universities, and private companies. He said research and development (R&D) should be a priority, not a luxury. 

    Dr. Isyaku also called for better local content, meaning more goods and services in the sector should come from Nigerian businesses, and university courses should be designed to meet the needs of the industry.

    Mrs. Funmi Ogbue, CEO of Zigma Limited, shared insights from the private sector. She said Nigeria can learn from countries like Norway, where oil has been used to support industrial growth and technological development. 

    She said Nigeria needs consistent policies, long-term contracts, support for exports, and serious investment in research and development. Ogbue warned that efforts that are poorly planned or influenced by politics will not achieve the desired results. Instead, government, industry, and researchers must work closely together for real progress to happen.

    Dr. Taiwo Ogunleye, a law professor at the Nigerian Institute of Advanced Legal Studies, said the main problem in the oil and gas sector is not the absence of good laws but the failure to implement existing ones. 

    Read Also: NESG backs $1tr economy target

    He said the Petroleum Industry Act already provides tools for industrial development, especially in areas like local business participation, licensing, research, and infrastructure. 

    According to him, fully enforcing these parts of the law can help move the country toward its industrial goals.

    At the end of the session, participants agreed on the need to push forward a strong and clear industrial policy that makes the oil and gas sector a foundation for technology-driven growth. They also said Nigeria must align its plans with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to compete effectively across the region.