The Nation Newspaper

Tag: NESG

  • NESG forecasts 7% growth for economy

    NESG forecasts 7% growth for economy

    The Nigerian Economic Summit Group(NESG) has predicted a seven per cent growth for the economy in the year. This is slightly above the six per cent projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union.

    Driven by non-oil sector growth, Nigeria’s economy grew 6.28 per cent in the second quarter of last year, up slightly from the 6.17 per cent attained in the first quarter. Historically, from 2005 until last year, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate averaged 6.8 per cent. It reached an all-time high of 8.6 per cent in December of 2010, and a record low of 4.5 per cent in March 2009.

    The GDP growth rate provides an aggregated measure of changes in value of the goods and services produced by an economy.

    Also, the NESG said inflation rate would hover around an average of 10 per cent in the year, with potential for single digit inflation by the second quarter. It said the IMF had predicted 9.5 per cent inflation rate for the country.

    The body in a report entitled: Nigeria: Macroeconomic outlook and themes for 2013, said the economy would continue with its steady growth this year, adding that the non-oil sector will grow by an average of 8.5 per cent per quarter and drive the economic growth.

    The NESG said: “Agriculture, trading, telecoms, power,  transport and building,  are the sectors to watch.

    In 2012, these sectors collectively accounted for over 70.44 per cent of GDP, and also grew by 4.12 per cent, 31.85 per cent, 3.05 per cent, 6.49 per cent and 12.59 per cent  in real terms.”

    It said the oil and gas sector would show a mild recovery  if production leakages from oil theft and vandalism are contained in the year.

    “We see up to two per cent rise in production capacity unlike the government’s projection of 8.02 per cent rise from 2.37 bpd average in 2012 to a 2.56 bpd target in 2013,” NESG added.

    It projected between 25 per cent and 30 per cent gains on the All-Share Index in 2013, stressing that this would help in consolidating the 37 per cent market recovery witnessed in 2012.

    It said, at that rate, the All-Share Index will likely outperform emerging market indices as it did in 2012, adding that capital market will perform strongly, similar to 2012.

    NESG said the banking sector would be the market driver of the year, given its dominant 26 per cent share of market capitalisation, high liquidity, cleaner asset bases and relatively attractive valuations.

    It said domestic bond market would enjoy increase in both local and foreign participation as Nigeria looks to join Barclays emerging market local currency government bond index in March.

    Nigeria, it said, would maintain its BB- ratings upgrade by S&P and Fitch on account of the Federal Government’s decision  to consider  Diaspora and infrastructural bond this year.

     

  • Nigeria may miss Vision 20: 2020 target, says NESG

    Nigeria may miss Vision 20: 2020 target, says NESG

    • Jonathan seeks transparency in oil sector

    Nigeria may miss the primary target of being one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2020 unless it significantly accelerated reforms and pace of economic growth to cover a whooping gap of about $730 billion.

    This was one of the highpoints of the Nigerian Economic Score Card presented yesterday at the ongoing Nigeria Economic Summit (NES) in Abuja by the Director-General, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Mr Frank Nweke Jr.

    Minister of National Planning, Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, however, said the Vision 20: 2020 was not a prediction but an inspirational roadmap towards attaining improvement in Nigerian economy.

    According to him, irrespective of Nigeria’s position by 2020, substantial progress would have been made by 2020 given ongoing reforms.

    After extensive review of the economic achievements, reports, goals and global and domestic scenarios, Nweke said Saudi Arabia would likely beat Nigeria to become the 20th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a GDP of US$1.2 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP).

    Also, President Goodluck Jonathan yesterday vowed to ensure transparency and accountability in the oil sector and prosecute those involve in the oil theft.

    Deregulation, he said, must be followed with views of Nigerians.

    Jonathan, who was represented by the Vice-President Namadi Sambo at the 18th Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja, said: “We must deregulate totally. This is the best answer. We believe that Nigerians will come to realise what we mean by deregulation. We are not in the right economic position. And the best way is to open up and deregulate the oil and gas sector. The blueprint and the transformation agenda of Vision 20: 2020 are living testimony of this collaboration.

    “The cost of governance and the Nigerian economic prospect capture the essence of our transformation agenda. The goal is to work on the critical sector of the economy that will accelerate job and wealth creation in our country. This same captures our commitment to good governance and efforts to full realise our huge economic potential.

    “In keeping with my promise two years ago. The recommendation of the last economic summit were received and considered by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) as potential imputes into government’s policy framework.

  • Insecurity threatens growth, says NESG

    Nigeria’s economic think-tank, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), has decried growth in the economy that does not translate to development, lamenting that the security situation in the country has also become worrisome.

    The body spoke in Lagos when members of the Communication sub-Committee of the Group, led by Tunji Olugbodi, co-chairman and Essiet Essien, also a co-chairman and Chris Ubosi, member, paid a courtesy visit to the Headquarters of Vintage Press, publishers of The Nation.

    Olugbodi, who spoke about the forthcoming 18th summit of the Group billed for Abuja between today and Wednesady, said it is a paradox that the economy is said to be growing while there are signs of ravaging poverty in the country.

    “There are so many things that are not adding up. There is a heavy paradox of growth without development. It is clear there is so much poverty in the land (in the midst of plenty),” he said, adding that whatever the average Nigerian earns, there are people who are dependent on the income.

    He described the state of insecurity in the country, arguing that even during war time in Afghanistan, the situation was not as bad as it is in the country now with sporadic attacks on military targets carried out with clinical precision.

    According to him, the recent attack on the headquarters of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in Abuja and another in at a military cantonment (Command and Staff College, Jaji, Kaduna State), which is also the power-house of military intellectualism, make frightening statements about the security in the country.

    Speaking on the Summit proper, he said the title for this year’s summit is titled: ‘Deregulation, Cost of Governance and Nigeria’s Economic Prospects’ is consistent with the Group’s commitment to continually focus on contemporary issues of public policy which does not only constrain improvements in the nation’s governance system but undermine economic development and the welfare and well-being of the citizens of the country.

     

  • Nigeria needs N32t for infrastructure, housing

    The Federal Government requires N32 trillion to provide infrastructure and housing, the National Pension Commission (PenCom) and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) have said.

    They made this known in a statement issued at the end of the Stakeholders’ Forum on Nigeria’s Pension System in Abuja.

    The highlights from the presentations and discussions at the forum indicated that Nigeria’s pension sector has 5.32 million registered contributors.

    PenCom said though there is N2.93 trillion in pension assets, with 5.3 million registered pension contributors, about 64 per cent of whom are below 40 years, only about 30 per cent of quoted stocks are active on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

    The Commission also said about that same percentage meets the minimum criteria for pension funds investment and this is about 80 per cent of the trading in the market.

    It also said countries with large pool of funds have better developed economies, with developing countries holding only three per cent of long-term funds (LTFs) globally while developed countries hold 34 per cent and emerging economies hold the majority 63 per cent.

    It hinted that global LTFs range from a size of $300 billion in foreign direct investments to $3 trillion in private equity funds with Nigeria having 15 per cent sub-optimal growth gap, going by the difference between nominal output growth of 22 per cent and real output growth seven per cent.