Seventeen political parties are fielding candidates for next Saturday’s governorship election in Ondo State, going by the list released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, it is likely to be a two-horse race between Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Agboola Ajayi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who are both former deputies to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI and Assistant Editor EMMANUEL BADEJO examine the factors that would determine the outcome of the contest and the chances of the two front-liners in the race
Next Saturday’s governorship election in Ondo State is a defining moment in the history of the Sunshine State. It is the first time major candidates in an election will hail from one senatorial district. It is a poll where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is expected to affirm its strength by winning another four years after eight years in power. Since 1999, no political party has ruled the state for more than eight years in power.
Seventeen political parties are fielding candidates in the election.
Contenders
The major contenders are Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Agboola Ajayi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP); Olugbenga Edema of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); Sola Ebiseni of the Labour Party (LP); Bamidele Akingboye of the Social Democratic Party (SDP); and Dr. Abbas Mimiko of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).
Others are Ajibola Falaiye of the Accord Party (AP); Omolere Akinuli of the Action Alliance (AA); Oluwaseyi Ajayi of the African Action Congress (AAC); Nejo Adeyemi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC); Emmanuel Akinnodi of the African Democratic Party (ADP); and Tunde Popoola of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
The list also includes Kolawole Ogunfeyimi of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM); Babatunde Fadoju of the Action Peoples Party (APP); Francis Alli of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP); Paul Adegoke of the Youth Party (YP); and Otitoloju Akinmurele of the Young Progressives Party (YPP).
Two-horse race
Nevertheless, the election is a two-horse race between Aiyedatiwa of the APC and Ajayi of the PDP, who are both former deputies to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Other political parties have no structure to match the PDP or unseat the APC. The PDP and APC have the membership and the structure for the election. They can mobilise voters and provide logistics. The two frontline candidates have crisscrossed the 18 local government areas of the state, to present their manifestos to voters.
The two former deputy governors have a point to prove in this election. Aiyedatiwa is leaving no stone unturned to retain the plum job. His closest rival, Ajayi is also making efforts to unseat the ruling party by leveraging on the current unsavoury economic situation across the nation. While the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has been working round the clock to ensure a credible election, the two major gladiators particularly have been combing every part of the state to canvas for votes.
Both hail from the Ondo South Senatorial District, favoured by the power-sharing arrangement or zoning to produce the next governor. However, Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje Local Government Area, while Ajayi is from Ese-Odo.
Incumbency
As the incumbent who controls all local, state, and federal elective positions, Aiyedatiwa has a formidable structure that can swing the contest in his favour. The incumbency factor at both the state and the federal level is expected to work in Aiyedatiwa’s favour. For example, the APC has utilised its advantage as the ruling party at the centre to effectively manage the internal conflicts that followed the emergence of Aiyedatiwa as its flag bearer in Saturday’s election. After the primary, significant efforts were made to unify the party. One notable move was the withdrawal of a court case by Senator Jimoh Ibrahim who initially challenged the conduct of the primary, describing it as a “mega fraud”. Ibrahim later withdrew the case, attributing his decision to the intervention of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The main opposition party has raised concerns about the potential misuse of incumbency. At the state level, the issues raised include the restriction of access to venues and intimidation of opposition by state security forces. For instance, the PDP has accused the Aiyedatiwa administration of denying them access to Democracy Park in Akure, where they had planned to kick off their campaign. Besides, Agboola has pointed out signals indicating plans for harassment against his party members by security forces aligned with the APC.
Referendum on APC
Be that as it may, Aiyedatiwa’s incumbency factor can also be a liability. This is because the election could result in a referendum on his performance in office so far. Ajayi has indicated that he is not intimidated by the incumbency factor. He said: “Yes, Aiyedatiwa is the incumbent governor. But that does not remove the fact that he is Lucky Aiyedatiwa and my name is Agboola Ajayi. Ondo State people know our capacity and will choose a better candidate than us.
“It will be interesting, but I will surely win the election. I have a lot of edge over him. I started at a very tender age as a ward chairman of the then Social Democratic Party (SDP). I later became the party’s secretary and supervisory councillor at the local government. I was the chairman of the local government before winning the election to become a member of the House of Representatives. I was a deputy governor and was acting governor at a time.”
Both of them have their peculiar challenges going into Saturday’s election. For instance, the emergence of Olugbenga Edema, who participated in the APC primary, as the NNPP candidate threatens the APC. Edema, who defected from the ruling party after alleging irregularities in its primary, has garnered substantial support, particularly from disaffected members, particularly allies of the late Governor Akeredolu. The presence of Edema — who hails from Ilaje Local Government Area, where Governor Aiyedatiwa also comes from — in the race has disrupted the traditional APC/PDP rivalry, turning it into a three-horse race; at least in that locality.
Be that as it may, Aiyedatiwa’s campaign gained momentum when Olusola Oke, another major contender in the primary, declared support for the APC candidate. Oke, who wields substantial influence in Ondo South Senatorial District, initially rejected Aiyedatiwa’s candidacy. However, after weeks of persuasion by the party leadership, he opted to back the governor, emphasising the importance of unity within the party and his desire to see the Ilaje community produce the next governor.
Determinants of victory
Besides, the APC has been receiving defectors from various opposition parties. Last week, for instance, the deputy governorship candidate of the SDP, Mrs Susan Alabi defected to the APC. Welcoming her to the APC at the party’s campaign in Oke Agbe, the headquarters of the Akoko Northwest Local Government Area, Aiyedatiwa urged party members to integrate the defector and work for the party to achieve victory next Saturday.
The PDP has been grappling with the wave of defections that followed its primary where Ajayi emerged as the candidate. The outcome has sparked discontent among many party members, leading to high-profile defections. Ondo APC Chairman, Ade Adetimehin said all former chairmen of the PDP in the state have defected to the APC. He said all gladiators in the PDP from across the political wards have joined the APC. Ebenezer Alabi, a former Ondo PDP chairman, accused unnamed leaders of exploiting the PDP for financial gain when he tendered his resignation. Alabi alleged that funds for election mobilisation were misappropriated, and that candidates were extorted during the primary. Other prominent members, such as Kolade Akinjo, a former governorship aspirant followed his departure. Akinjo, who enjoys considerable support within the fold, described the party as a “crumbling block”. Following his exit from the PDP, he led several leaders to join the APC.
The defections are a significant blow to the PDP before the election. Prominent figures close to former Governor Olusegun Mimiko, including former House of Representatives members and a former speaker of the state assembly, have also left the party, citing the need to support Aiyedatiwa’s candidacy and contribute to state and national progress under the APC.
The PDP has downplayed the defections, insisting that the party remains strong and unshaken. Its spokesman, Ayo Fadaka, dismissed the defectors as “excess baggage”. The PDP leadership in the Southwest has also downplayed the impact of the defections, calling it inconsequential.
Uneasy calm within PDP
The PDP has had its share of defectors crossing over. Ajayi indicated recently that he welcomed about 10,000. The defectors, he added, are from the APC, the SDP, the LP, and the NNPP. Oyo State’s Governor Seyi Makinde received the defectors at a campaign rally of the PDP in Ore, headquarters of Odigbo Local Government. The party has also welcomed a former Chairman of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Dr. Benson Enikuomehin, and over 200 others into its fold.
However, the PDP faces additional challenges beyond defections. Some still within the fold may work against the party during the election. Many of them are not happy with the emergence of Ajayi as the party’s candidate, which could further complicate the PDP’s chances in the election.
Several factors will determine the winner of the forthcoming election. The performance or the achievements of Aiyedatiwa in the last 10 months will determine if he will get the people’s vote on Saturday. So far, he has shown leadership and ability to lead the party to victory owing to the growing number of PDP chieftains that have defected to the APC.
Aiyedatiwa has reconciled with a good number of those who contested at the party primary against him. The Ondo APC is going into the election as a united entity, not a divided house. The same unity of purpose earned the party victory in 2020 and the 2023 general elections.
The defection of loyalists of former Governor Olusegun Mimiko to the APC in August is also expected to boost Aiyedatiwa’s victory. The defectors, about 29 in number, had previously worked with Mimiko during his eight-year tenure and now aim to support Governor Aiyedatiwa’s re-election bid. Mimiko himself, the only living elected former governor, has yet to make any clear moves. He is expected to tacitly support Aiyedatiwa but would not openly get involved in the race because of his brother’s candidacy on the platform of the ZLP.
A good omen for APC
A spokesman for the Ondo APC, Alex Kalejaiye, said the party’s victory in Edo State was a signal that Nigerians love the APC and that it may likely retain Ondo State. He said: “The APC has all these things in good measure. We have the structure, membership and ability to mobilise. We have been able to do so much for the people. We have set records that predecessors could only dream of.
“The APC has structure across the state. You have seen gladiators moving into the APC. Some of our members who joined the PDP will eventually return to the APC. The APC won 15 out of 18 local government areas four years ago. This time, it wants to win all 18 local government areas judging from the gladiators leaving the PDP to the APC. We should deliver. You do not expect the PDP to praise the APC. You expect the PDP to do propaganda. The essence of an opposition party is to bring down the government of the day. The APC has done well across all sectors.
“At the national level, economic indicators suggest the government is moving in the right direction. Economic analysts said Nigerians will benefit. There is no free lunch anywhere. What the president is doing might not be clear to some people. The PDP should not politicise everything. The party is not used to policies with long periods of gestation.
Their style is to share borrowed money. Tinubu is doing well. Times could be hard but it will not last.”
The PDP’s hope of winning the election hinges on the dissatisfaction of the general populace based on the reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The deteriorating economic situation in the country constitutes significant challenges for Aiyedatiwa. The public’s growing dissatisfaction with President Tinubu’s policies may undermine local support for the APC, with some voters likely to associate Aiyedatiwa with the economic hardships and controversies caused by the Tinubu administration. The dramatic rise in living costs has sparked numerous protests across the country with the latest and most widespread one being the hunger protest in August, demanding a reversal of Tinubu’s economic policies.
Why PDP is confident
Spokesman of the Ondo PDP, Kennedy Peretei, insisted that the state has been unlucky to have Aiyedatiwa as governor. He said Aiyedatiwa does not deserve another term in office in the face of the total collapse of the state economy, security and health sectors.
“The antecedents of the PDP in office and the personality and the general acceptability of Agboola Ajayi already give an idea of where the pendulum will swing. The PDP will have convincing victory in not less than 13 out of the 18 local governments in Ondo State.”
Also, a former chieftain of the Ondo APC, Alhaji Yusuf Abdulateef, gave reasons why farmers in Ondo South Senatorial District would vote against Governor Aiyedatiwa. Abdulateef said the farmers were unhappy with the APC-led administration because their farmlands were seized and sold to corporate organisations.
Abdulateef told our reporter: “I want to thank Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa for calling me. On meeting with the governor, he asked me if it was true that I had left the APC, and I answered in the affirmative. I told him I decided due to what was happening in the land, particularly the hardship. People are hungry and lamenting that the APC government brought nothing but pain to them.
“Farmers in Ore, Odigbo Local Government, are crying that their land has been destroyed and taken away from them. My followers, which are many, have been telling me that they can no longer bear the agony of the APC, and they appealed to me to move. Even those in Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo, Irele, Ilaje, and Okitipupa have indicated a willingness to defect.
“I want to thank Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa for calling me, but I want to let him know I’m now in the PDP. Although we have many political parties, our incoming governor, Agboola Ajayi, is a truthful and humble man. As deputy governor, he performed excellently well with party leaders and traditional rulers; Muslims and Christians are comfortable.”
An attempt to undermine Ajayi or the PDP ahead of the polls might spell doom for Aiyedatiwa and the APC. Ajayi has proven to be a grassroots politician who knows how to reach out to the common man.
He knows how to outspend his opponent during elections. Ajayi and the PDP are weaponising economic hardship and hunger to sway the electorates. Many APC chieftains have defected to the PDP to support Ajayi’s aspiration.
Akeredolu’s long shadow
The two major contenders are former deputy governors that served under the late Governor Akeredolu (SAN). Both had frosty relationships with their late boss. They, however, survived several impeachment attempts. With the election around the corner, pundits are studying the body language of the Akeredolu political dynasty and wondering where they will pitch their tent. Though the Akeredolus are members of the ruling APC, they have been at loggerheads with Governor Aiyedatiwa before and after he succeeded the late governor.
Pundits are also watching the camp of the former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, serving in the current APC administration, to see who the group will support. Wike is an ally of former Governor Mimiko. Both were part of the Integrity Group spearheaded by the G5 governors that supported Tinubu and rejected the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in last year’s general election. Will Wike support Ajayi, a PDP member or will he support Aiyedatiwa, the candidate of the APC and the ruling? During the recent governorship election in Edo State, Wike withdrew his support for his party’s candidate over irreconcilable differences. The development may have influenced the outcome of the election. However, the former Rivers governor, now the FCT minister, has maintained a grave silence on the forthcoming Ondo election.
Triumph of zoning
The two major parties bowed to the clamour for zoning by picking their candidates from Ondo South. With this development, zoning or power rotation appears to have been institutionalised in Ondo politics, as Ondo North where it began has had two terms under the late Akeredolu in its second cycle and the Ondo South is set to take a second shot; as all the major contenders in this election are from there. The cycle began in 1999, with Adebayo Adefarati from Ondo North (1999 to 2003); followed by Olusegun Agagu from Ondo South (2003 to 2009); then Olusegun Mimiko from Ondo Central (2009 to 2017). Akeredolu from Ondo North assumed leadership in 2017, and his re-election in 2020 strengthened the zoning arrangement. Previous governors were not successful in staying in office. When Mimiko became the first two-term governor in the Fourth Republic, this set a precedent that Akeredolu supporters referenced when he sought a second term four years ago.
Owing to the zoning factor, Ajayi, who also contested in 2020, faced limited support from his kinsmen then. This understanding of power rotation was further evidenced by Akeredolu’s selection of his deputies, who were always from the southern senatorial district, assumed to be next in line to assume the governorship.
Aiyedatiwa (APC)
Aiyedatiwa, 59, became deputy to the late Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, following the 2020 governorship election. He was sworn in as the seventh civilian governor of Ondo State on December 27 last year, following Akeredolu’s death on Wednesday, at 67.
His ascent to the Ondo State governorship seat was characterized by unexpected twists and turns. Like a cat with nine lives, he has survived different political traps, including an impeachment ploy and the allegation that his certificate and academic records were fake; all meant to stop him from contesting the primary. The attacks however increased public sympathy for him, a factor believed to have led to his emergence as the APC candidate.
Before becoming deputy governor, he has acquired considerable experience in diverse fields, having served as a federal commissioner at the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) from 2018 to 2019. As an entrepreneur, he was the managing director and chief executive officer of the Blue Wall Group of Companies.
Aiyedatiwa holds a Master’s in Business Administration from the University of Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Born on January 12, 1965, the APC candidate hails from Obe-Nla, an oil-bearing community in Ilaje Local Government Area. He became involved in active politics in 2011 as a card-carrying member of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which later merged with other political parties and became APC. He was one of the national delegates from Ondo State at the APC National Convention in Abuja in 2014. He contested for the House of Representatives for Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency in the 2015 election.
Ajayi (PDP)
Ajayi, 55, was deputy to the late Akeredolu during the latter’s first term in office. He served as Akeredolu’s deputy between 2017 and 2021. Ajayi left the APC on June 21, 2020, and joined the PDP following the feud between him and the late Akeredolu.
The PDP flag bearer is not a newcomer in the race; having earlier contested the PDP primary but lost to Eyitayo Jegede, who eventually became the candidate of the party in the 2020 election. After he failed to secure the ticket of the main opposition party, he headed to the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP). But, he later returned to the fold for the current election cycle.
Ajayi’s political experience and financial muscle were some of the factors that helped him to emerge as the winner of the PDP primary. He is reputed to be a grassroots politician who understands the game; he began his political career in the SDP during the aborted Third Republic. Stakeholders believe that other aspirants of the PDP who lost in the exercise did not have the support garnered by Ajayi and the financial muscle pulled into the exercise to have their way among the delegates.
The PDP flag bearer hails from Kiribo town in Ese Odo Local Government Area. He served as a member of the House of Representatives and represented the Ilaje/Ese Odo Federal Constituency on the platform of the PDP, serving as the chairman of the House Committee on the NDDC from 2007 to 2010, a position it was believed he used to warm his way into the hearts of the people of his area across different parties.
Edema (NNPP)
The NNPP flag bearer, Olugbenga Edema was a governorship aspirant on the APC platform. He was among the aspirants who alleged that the primary that produced Aiyedatiwa as the APC standard bearer for the forthcoming election was flawed. He said no primary took place in most parts of the state. Edema later announced his exit from the ruling party and defected to the NNPP. Subsequently, he secured the party’s ticket, following the voluntary withdrawal of its erstwhile candidate, Oluwatosin Ayeni, from the race.
Edema was born in the rustic village of Ogogoro, Ilaje Local Government Area on November 15, 1966. He had his early primary education at the L. A. Primary School, Ogogoro and Urban Community School, Abakaliki, Ebonyi State. For his secondary education, he attended Erinje Grammar School, Ode-Erinje, Ondo State and Doherty Memorial Grammar School, Ijero-Ekiti, Ekiti State between 1977 and 1982.
He holds a 1999 degree in law from the University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, and a 1990 Bachelor of Science degree in geography.
Edema had his early stint with politics when he became a member of the Peoples Solidarity Party (PSP), one of the many political associations that aspired for registration during the transitional programme prior to the aborted Third Republic. He later joined the SDP, one of the two political parties created by the Babangida military regime where he held a number of significant positions, including being a delegate to the party’s national convention where the late Chief Moshood Abiola emerged as its presidential candidate.
With the return to democratic rule in 1999, Edema became a member of the PDP. Subsequently, he joined the LP at a colourful ceremony held on May 24, 2010 in Igbokoda, Ondo State. He was elected to represent Ilaje Constituency II at the Ondo State State House of Assembly in 2011 on the LP platform. He joined the APC before the party’s triumph in the 2015 general election. He is a former chairman of the Ondo State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission (OSOPADEC).
Akingboye (SDP)
Otunba Bamidele Akingboye is a former governorship aspirant on the PDP platform. The SDP candidate, who hails from Okitipupa, Ondo South Senatorial District, like most of the candidates, is an alumnus of Lagos Business School (Pan-Atlantic University) and University of Heriot Watt University, Edinburg, Scotland.
Akingboye has reputable professional qualifications as a Chartered Accountant (UK) and Certified Fraud Examiner (USA) and has decades of experience as an entrepreneur. He envisions Ondo State as a hub for innovation and technology. His 10-point agenda prioritises infrastructure, education, technology, agriculture, security, and research and development, aiming to end suffering in the state.
Akingboye recognises the youths as central to the provision of change. He plans to establish coding boot camps, advanced technology centres, and community digital hubs with free Wi-Fi hotspots and charging stations, amid other innovative solutions that will make for growth and development across the entire state. He is a philanthropist, business tycoon and first-rate technocrat with decades of national and international experience.
Ebiseni (LP)
Olusola Ebiseni, more popularly known as Sola Ebiseni, is a human rights activist, lawyer, politician and chancellor of the Ilaje Diocese of the Anglican Communion. He was born and raised in Ogun State to parents of Ilaje Ondo State origin. He lived in Ibadan, Lagos, Nsukka and Ile-Ife in his formative years. His students’ activism in the 1980s, which started at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka and climaxed at the University of Ife took him to virtually all higher institutions in the country then.
Ebiseni, 60, has served as a commissioner three times in Ondo State. He was also a delegate at the 2014 National Confab, was born and raised in Ogun State to parents of Ilaje Ondo State origin and traversed Ibadan, Lagos, Nsukka, Ile-Ife in his formative years and in search of sound education, Chief Nehemiah Olusola Ebiseni is a blend of many cultures which prepared him for future national endeavors devoid of parochial, restricted end.
He served as commissioner for Environment under Gov. Adebayo Adefarati. He was later appointed as chairman of the Law Commission and later returned as the commissioner of environment by former Governor Mimiko.
