Tag: OPEC

  • OPEC may include output quotas for Nigeria, Libya – Oman Oil Minister

    OPEC may include output quotas for Nigeria, Libya – Oman Oil Minister

    OPEC and other oil-producing states could set quotas on oil production for Nigeria at 1.8 million barrels per day and for Libya at one million barrels per day, Oman ’s Minister of Oil and Gas Mohammed Rumhi said Thursday.

    Later in the day, the oil and energy ministers of all the parties to the oil output cut deal between the OPEC and a group of non-cartel states will hold a meeting in Vienna to discuss the future of the accord and its potential extension.

    Ahead of the meeting, the Austrian capital hosted the session of the Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee ( JMMC ) established to control the implementation of the accord.

    “I think they will try today to put a number for them [Libya and Nigeria], to try to get an agreement.

    “Like last [time] you remember, I think, [the quota of] Nigeria was 1.8 [million barrels per day], [and the quota of] Libya – like one million barrels per day.

    “So maybe today we will try to confirm that,” Rumhi said.

    The oil producers’ JMMC on oil output cuts has recommended to extend the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC states by nine months, the minister told reporters answering a corresponding question.

    OPEC and several non-cartel oil producers reached a deal in the Austrian capital of Vienna in 2016, agreeing to cut oil output by a total of 1.8 million barrels per day in an effort to stabilise global oil prices.

    Non-OPEC states pledged to jointly reduce oil output by 558,000 barrels per day, with Russia pledging to cut production by 300,000 barrels daily.

    In May, the deal was prolonged for nine more months, until the end of March 2018.

    Libya and Nigeria, both OPEC member states are exempted from the obligation to cut production within the deal.

    NAN

    Read Also: Budget 2018 at risk as OPEC mulls capping Nigeria’s output at 1.8m bpd

  • Budget 2018 at risk as OPEC mulls capping Nigeria’s output at 1.8m bpd

    Budget 2018 at risk as OPEC mulls capping Nigeria’s output at 1.8m bpd

    Today’s meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will debate whether or not to cap Nigeria’s output at 1.8million barrels per day, a source close to the meeting said yesterday.

    Libya’s output may also be capped at one million barrels per day, it was learnt.

    The two countries have so far been excluded from supply curbs due to falling production amid unrest.

    The 14-member OPEC meets to decide whether to extend production cuts until the end of 2018.

    Should this decision be taken, Nigeria’s 2018 budget projection of 2.3million barrels per day will become unrealistic. It may even render the entire budget invalid. Oil is the mainstay of Nigeria’s economy.

    Africa’s biggest oil producer and OPEC member was hit hard by the sharp drop in global oil prices in 2014 that pushed it into its first recession in 25 years. Nigeria returned to growth-mode in the second quarter.

    The NNPC is looking to set up a 3.5 to five billion dollars cash-for-crude prepayment with some of the world’s top commodity traders to fund oil and gas upstream projects as well as related infrastructure, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

    Already cash-strapped and weighed down by billions of dollars in old debts, NNPC has also been looking to bring in outside cash.

    The sources said Standard Chartered was hired to advise on the oil prepayment and a request-for-proposal was issued a few weeks ago for a 3.5 to five billion dollars loan to be repaid with crude over five to seven years, the sources said.

    A spokesman for Standard Chartered declined to comment. A spokesman for NNPC also declined to comment.

    The sources added that a decision was expected before the end of this year. Around seven trading firms were still in the running, one added, with top trading houses Glencore, Vitol and Trafigura as being among the active contenders.

    The trading firms declined to comment.

    The west African OPEC member is seeking three offtakers, one of the sources said, against 70,000 barrels per day of crude.

    Vitol already has a major presence in Nigeria after buying petrol stations via a joint venture with local producer Oando and private equity fund Helios.

    Vitol is also among a list of majors traders, including Trafigura, that participate in a swap scheme to deliver refined products in exchange for crude.

    Profit margins for trading firms have been slowly eroding over the last few years as transparency in oil markets has increased, reducing arbitrage opportunities, once based on privileged information.

    Increasing traded volumes is one way to raise profits and competition is fierce for prepayment deals with state oil firms.

    NNPC has had cash-flow problems for years and has been chronically behind payments for its stakes in upstream joint-ventures with Shell, Chevron, Total, Eni and ExxonMobil.

    After project development began to stall following the collapse in oil prices, Oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu reached a deal last year with its major foreign oil-producers to repay 5.1 billion dollars over five years, interest-free.

    NNPC has already leveraged over 300,000 barrels per day of crude to cover current fuel imports via a crude-for-product swap scheme as well as debts to traders dating back nearly a decade.

  • Developing countries to lead oil  demand growth till 2040, says OPEC

    Developing countries to lead oil demand growth till 2040, says OPEC

    The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said developing countries will lead oil demand growth in the next two decades.

    In its 2017 World Oil Outlook launched in Vienna, the cartel said oil demand is expected to grow in the developing countries, especially Asian and the Middle East countries by almost 24 million barrels per day (bpd), to reach 67 million bpd by 2040.

    The report said:“Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35 per cent in the period to 2040 and oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.

    “Long-term oil demand has been revised upward by 1.7 million barrels per day compared to the World Oil Outlook  of 2016, with total demand at over 111 million barrels per day by 2040. There is no expectation for peak oil demand over the forecast period to 2040.

    “Developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by almost 24 million bpd to reach 67 million bpd by 2040. The long-term demand growth comes mainly from the transportation sector – road transportation (5.4 million bpd), petrochemicals (3.9 million bpd) and aviation (2.9 million bpd)”.

    According to the report, oil demand in the road transportation sector is driven by the increasing car fleet in developing countries and declining oil use per vehicle in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The car fleet is anticipated to change smoothly over the forecast period. In the passenger car segment, electric vehicles are estimated to represent 12 per cent of the car fleet by 2040.

    It said: “Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to increase from 57 million bpd in 2016 to 62 million bpd in 2022, but in the long-term non-OPEC liquids output is anticipated to see a decline, dropping to 60.4 million bpd by 2040, with United States (US) tight oil estimated to peak just after 2025;

    “The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to  41.4 million bpd by 2040. The share of OPEC liquids in total global liquids supply is estimated to increase to 46 per cent by 2040, from 40 per cent in 2016.

    “Around half of the estimated refining capacity additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, which is projected to add 9.5 million bpd by 2040. Capacity rationalisation remains a long-term requirement, with some 6-8 million bpd of closures indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilisation rates of at least 80 per cent.

    “Global crude movements are expected to increase by around 6.5 million bpd between 2016 and 2040, mostly supported by Asia-Pacific imports and Middle East exports. In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion”.

    Speaking during the launch, Director, Research Division of OPEC, Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, said: “The multi-faceted nature of the oil industry and the continued interdependence of all nations; the impact of the ongoing market rebalancing process, specifically on the medium-term outlook; that oil will remain a fuel of choice for the foreseeable future; that security of supply and security of demand are very much two sides of the same coin; and the importance of exploring and evaluating the possible challenges, uncertainties, as well as opportunities, the industry might face.”

  • Oil cut : OPEC records highest conformity in Sept

    Oil cut : OPEC records highest conformity in Sept

    The OPEC-non-OPEC producing countries’ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) has said based on the report of its Joint Technical Committee (JTC) for September, OPEC and participating non-OPEC producing countries have achieved a record high conformity level with the voluntary production adjustments, reaching 120 per cent.

    The JMMC was established following OPEC’s 171st Ministerial Conference Decision of November 30 2016, and the subsequent Declaration of Cooperation at the joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Producing Countries’ Ministerial Meeting  on December 10, 2016, at which 11 (now 10 after Equatorial Guinea became a Member of OPEC ) non-OPEC oil producing countries cooperated with the 13 (now 14) OPEC member countries in a concerted effort to accelerate the stabilisation of the global oil market through voluntary adjustments in total production of around 1.8 million barrels per day.

    The resulting declaration, which came into effect on  January 1, 2017, was for six months. The second joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Producing Countries’ Ministerial Meeting, held on May 25, 2017, decided to extend the voluntary production adjustments for another nine months commencing  from July1, 2017.

    In September 2017, the OPEC and participating non-OPEC producing countries achieved an excellent conformity level of 120 per cent, the highest level since the start of the Declaration of Cooperation. This again underscores the resolute commitment of participating producing countries to cooperate towards the rebalancing of the market. The JMMC expressed satisfaction with the overall results and encouraged all participating countries to continue on the path towards conformity, for the benefit of producers and consumers alike.

    The JMMC noted that while some participating producing countries have consistently performed beyond their voluntary production adjustments, others are yet to achieve 100 per cent conformity.

    The JMMC took note of the recent developments in the market and expressed confidence that the oil market is moving in the right direction towards the objectives of the Declaration of Cooperation. Indicative of these positive developments are the recent upward revisions for global oil demand growth in both 2017 and 2018.

    Commercial oil stocks in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) fell further in September and the difference to the latest five-year average has been reduced by 178 million barrels since the beginning of this year, however, there remains another 159 million barrels of stock overhange to be depleted.

    The JMMC will continue to monitor other factors in the oil market and their influence on the ongoing market rebalancing process. All options are left open to ensure that every effort is made to rebalance the market for the benefit of all.

    The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for Vienna, on November 29 2017.

  • OPEC likely to extend cuts

    OPEC likely to extend cuts

    Oil prices have hovered around their highest levels of the year over the past few weeks, reaching a two-year high of $59 per barrel in late September. The bullish sentiment in the market reflects four major developments: higher global demand, the rising likelihood that OPEC will extend its production cuts until the end of 2018, the fading impact of hurricanes in the US and heightened geopolitical risks in Iraq and Iran.

    According to The Peninsula Qatar, non-OPEC output is expected to increase further in 2018 and we believe OPEC will therefore extend its production cut agreement from its expiry in Q1 2018 to the end of 2018 to support the market. As a result, we maintain our forecast for an average price of $58 per barrel for 2018.

    So, what is driving the recent bullish sentiment in oil prices? The first development is a firmer global demand outlook. In September, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand forecast for the whole of 2017 due to improving growth in the US and Europe. It now projects an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2017 compared to 1.4m b/d previously.

    The second major development has been increasing speculation of an extension of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts beyond Q1 2018. We first highlighted that OPEC was increasingly likely to extend its production cuts back in early July (see our commentary, OPEC’s 2018 dilemma). Recently, Russia and Saudi Arabia have had high level talks discussing the possibility of an extension and Saudi Arabia has also said that it will unilaterally cut production by an additional 0.3mb/d, over and above its existing OPEC agreed cuts, beginning in November to further support prices. At the same time, although inventory levels have declined since the start of the year, they have not fallen quickly enough to achieve OPEC’s stated target of bringing inventories down to their five-year historical average by Q1 2018. All of these factors have pushed markets to expect that an extension of the agreement is increasingly likely

    The third development is the fading impact of Hurricane Harvey on the US oil market. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the oil producing Gulf Coast region of the US, paradoxically resulted in lower and not higher crude oil prices in late August. This is because the hurricane disrupted refinery output and left crude oil production largely undisturbed. The end result was an increase in crude oil inventories in the US, depressing crude prices, and rapid draw down of refined product inventories. Now, prices have rebounded as refining capacity has mostly come back online and the crude oil inventory glut is being cleared by record high US crude oil exports.

    The fourth development is heightened geopolitical risks. The Kurdish independence referendum has created some uncertainty over the future flow of 500,000 bpd from Iraqi Kurdish oil fields to Turkey.

  • Oil cut: OPEC, others attain 116% compliance

    Oil cut: OPEC, others attain 116% compliance

    The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC partners, that agreed to cut oil production to stem supply glut, attained 116 per cent compliance last month, the highest since the implementation of the agreement in January.

    The Joint  OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) stated this at its last meeting.

    The committee said in the report of the Joint OPEC and non-OPEC Technical Committee (JTC) for August, that OPEC and participating non-OPEC producing countries recorded the highest conformity ever with their voluntary adjustments in production.

    This again underscored the commitment of participating countries to cooperating towards the rebalancing of the market. The JMMC expressed satisfaction with the results and steady progress towards full conformity with production adjustments. It encouraged the countries to continue on the path towards better conformity for the benefit of producers and consumers.

    The JMMC noted that while some participating countries have consistently performed beyond their voluntary production adjustments, others are yet to achieve 100 per cent conformity.

    Furthermore, the JMMC recommended that the JTC continue to build on the progress made at the JTC extraordinary session in Abu Dhabi on August 8, to support each participating country in its efforts towards achieving full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation.

    The JMMC noted recent market developments and expressed confidence that the oil market was moving  towards the objectives of the Declaration of Cooperation. Recent data confirmed that global oil demand growth in 2017 is now better than expected, while for 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to be robust.

    Commercial oil stocks in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) fell further last month, and the difference to the latest five-year average has been reduced by 168 million barrels since the beginning of this year. However, there remains another 170 million barrels of stock overhang to be depleted. Supported by the improving forward structure in the futures market, floating storage has also been on a declining trend since June.

    The JMMC will continue to monitor other factors in the oil market and their influence on ongoing market rebalancing process. Every effort will be made to rebalance the market for the benefit of all, it said.

    At its fifth meeting, which took place in Vienna, Austria, the JMMC welcomed the participation of Iraq, Libya and Nigeria, and the reaffirmation of their commitment to working closely with other countries to ensure the success of the Declaration of Cooperation.

    The President of the OPEC Conference, Khalid A. Al-Falih, minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, participated in the meeting by telephone. He expressed his solidarity with the JMMC, reiterated the commitment of Saudi Arabia to the success of the Declaration of Cooperation, and cautioned against complacency. Moreover, he reaffirmed the necessity of additional work by under-performing participating countries to bring their conformity levels to 100 per cent.  He thanked Libya and Nigeria for their positive engagement and their ongoing coordination with the participating countries in the Declaration of Cooperation.

    The JMMC was established following OPEC’s 171st Ministerial Conference Decision of November 30, 2016, and the subsequent Declaration of Cooperation made at the joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Producing Countries’ Ministerial Meeting on December 10, 2016, at which 11 (now 10) non-OPEC oil producing countries cooperated with the 13 (now 14) OPEC member countries to accelerate the stabilisation of the oil market through voluntary adjustments in total production of 1.8 million barrels per day. The Declaration came into effect on January 1, 2017, and was for six months.  It was extended for another nine months commencing July 1.

    The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for Vienna, on November 29, 2017.

  • Iran urges OPEC to act on Nigeria, Libya output

    Iran urges OPEC to act on Nigeria, Libya output

    The commitment of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cutting production to clear a global glut is working, but the group needs to address rising output from Libya and Nigeria, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has said.

    Compliance with the output cuts is “acceptable,” Zanganeh told reporters in Tehran. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries should focus on “the situation with Libya and Nigeria,” he said, referring to the two countries exempted from capping production due to their internal strife.

    “OPEC’s actions are working and compliance is acceptable overall, although there needs to be some change,” Zanganeh said, referring to OPEC members’ compliance with their pledges to pump less. “Changes are really related to Libya and Nigeria and the 100 percent compliance of everyone.” He didn’t elaborate.

    OPEC and other global producers including Russia agreed to maintain output cuts through March to end a price rout that has battered their economies since 2014. Iran was part of the deal reached last year, though it was given special permission to raise output by 90,000 barrels a day. Libya and Nigeria were not part of the deal and have since increased production, complicating the efforts of the suppliers to reduce the glut. Benchmark Brent crude has dropped by about half from its 2014 peak.

    OPEC backs any action to help stabilize the oil market, and if a meeting is needed for the group to decide whether to extend the cuts that expire in March, “we’ll arrange it,” Zanganeh said.

    Iran “will consider everything within the framework of our national interest and cooperation with OPEC,” he said when asked whether the country would adjust its output.

    Iraq supports OPEC’s efforts to pare oil output and clear a global glut even as the group’s second-biggest producer plans to expand its own capacity to pump more, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said Sunday at a news conference in Baghdad.

    The country’s plan to boost capacity to 5 million barrels a day by the end of the year won’t affect crude markets, he said. Iraq won’t export all of its additional output, he said. The nation pumped 4.49 million barrels a day in August, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

    “The oil market’s status is stable, and we don’t accept that any country exceed its share” under OPEC’s deal to cut production, he said. “We support OPEC’s position to stabilize markets.”

    Iraq is seeking to rebuild its energy industry after decades of conflict, and al-Luaibi sought to reassure oil markets a day before the country’s energy-rich, self-governing Kurdish area plans to vote on a referendum on independence. The central government opposes the vote, which many global powers say could create further instability in a region convulsed by war. The Kurds plan to include the disputed Kirkuk region, home to Iraq’s oldest producing oil fields, in the referendum.

    Oil should be left out of the political wrangling over control of Kirkuk, al-Luaibi said. Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens are all competing to control Kirkuk, making it a potential flashpoint for conflict. The Baghdad-run North Oil Co. is currently pumping 500,000 barrels a day in northern Iraq, he said.

    Iraq’s government is still in discussions with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which quit Iraq’s southern Majnoon field and plans also to withdraw from the West Qurna-1 deposit, al-Luaibi said. It’s not talking with any other oil companies about replacing Shell, he said.

    “We have no problems in finding international companies” to replace the oil major, al-Luaibi said, adding that Iraqi staff are capable of taking over from Shell.

    Iraq will soon sign a deal with Iran to jointly invest in two oil fields, he said, without giving a date. It’s also in talks with Kuwait to jointly develop four fields and to ship surplus natural gas to Kuwait, he said.

  • We’re winning battle to curb oil glut, says OPEC

    We’re winning battle to curb oil glut, says OPEC

    Output cuts by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers are clearing a supply glut that has weighed on crude prices for three years, ministers said at a meeting on Friday to review the pact that expires next March.

    The OPEC, Russia and several other producers have cut production by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January.

    The group is considering extending the deal beyond its March expiry, although two sources said Friday’s gathering was unlikely to make a specific recommendation on an extension.

    Ministers on a panel monitoring the pact, comprising Kuwait, Venezuela and Algeria, plus Russia and Oman, were meeting in Vienna after oil prices gained more than 15 percent in the past three months to trade above $56 a barrel. Since our last meeting in July, the oil market has markedly improved,” Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq said in an opening speech at the meeting he is chairing. “The market is now evidently well on its way towards rebalancing.”

    Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said OPEC and other producers now needed to work on strategy beyond March.

    “We need not only to keep up the pace but continue our coordinated joint actions in full, but also work out a strategy for the future, to which we will stick starting from April 2018,” he said, adding oil demand was rising at a “high pace”.

    Officials said before Friday’s meeting that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee would consider extending the supply cut pact. But two OPEC sources said the ministers were not likely to make a specific recommendation for an extension.

    The committee can make policy recommendations for the wider group of OPEC and non-OPEC producers, which meets in November.

    Global oil inventories have shown signs of falling, although OPEC-led efforts to cut stockpiles to their five-year average has taken longer than expected. Oil prices remain at only half their level of mid-2014.

    Kuwait’s minister said there were a “number of positives” in the market, including stock levels in industrialised OECD states in August that were 170 million barrels above the five-year average, down from 340 million barrels in January.

    He also said oil in floating storage was falling and cited a shift of benchmark Brent prices into backwardation, a market condition in which it is more attractive to sell oil immediately rather than storing it for later sale, indicating tighter supplies.

    The Russian minister said ministers would also discuss monitoring exports, although he said the main focus was still on production.

    OPEC officials have said exports have a more direct impact on the international supply than production.

  • OPEC exempts Nigeria from oil production cut

    OPEC exempts Nigeria from oil production cut

    The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Non-OPEC countries have approved Nigeria’s exemption from oil production cuts.

    A statement issued by the Director, Press Relations, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Mr. Idang Alibi, said the endorsement was given at a meeting of OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on Friday in Vienna.

    Nigeria was first granted production cuts at the November 2016 Ministerial Conference and this was later extended in May at another Ministerial Conference, until the country stabilizes its crude oil production.

    Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, said though Nigeria’s production recovery efforts had made some appreciable progress from October 2016, it was not yet ”out of the woods.”

    The statement quoted Kachikwu, who was at the Vienna meeting, as saying that “though Nigeria hit 1.8 million barrels production per day in August, it was not enough justification for call by some countries for Nigeria to be brought into the fold.”

    ”Nigeria as one of the older members of OPEC will continue to work for the good of the organisation and its member countries, respecting whatever agreements and resolutions are collectively made.

    ”Nigeria will be prepared to cap its crude production when it has stabilized at 1.8 million barrels per day.”

    The meeting noted that overall compliance by OPEC and Non-OPEC participating countries to the Agreement on oil production cut for August was 116 per cent, the highest since the agreement in January this year.

    It said the objectives of the accord were steadily being achieved with the gradual draw-down of inventories by nearly 50 per cent since the agreement came into effect.

    NAN

     

     

  • OPEC exempts Nigeria from oil production cut

    OPEC exempts Nigeria from oil production cut

    The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Non-OPEC countries have approved Nigeria’s exemption from oil production cuts.

    A statement by the Director, Press Relations, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Mr Idang Alibi, said the endorsement was given by at a meeting of OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on Friday in Vienna.

    Nigeria was first granted production cuts at the November, 2016 Ministerial Conference and this was later extended in May at another Ministerial Conference, until the country stabilizes its crude oil production.

    Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, said though Nigeria’s production recovery efforts had made some appreciable progress from October, 2016, it was not yet ”out of the woods”.

    The statement quoted Kachikwu, who was at the Vienna meeting, as saying that though Nigeria hit 1.8 million barrels production per day in August, it was not enough justification for call by some countries for Nigeria “to be brought into the fold”.

    ”Nigeria as one of the older members of OPEC will continue to work for the good of the organisation and its member countries, respecting whatever agreements and resolutions are collectively made.

    ”Nigeria will be prepared to cap its crude production when it has stabilized at 1.8 million barrels per day,” he said.

    The meeting noted that overall compliance by OPEC and Non-OPEC participating countries to the Agreement on oil production cut for August was 116 per cent, the highest since the agreement in January, 2017.

    It said that the objectives of the accord were steadily being achieved with the gradual draw-down of inventories by nearly 50 per cent since the agreement came into effect. (NAN)