The 2026 Osun State gubernatorial election readily presents the All Progressives Congress (APC) with both a challenge and an opportunity. While some have advocated zoning the ticket to Osun West, a detailed examination of political realities, party performance data, and the current administration’s failures reveals that the Osun East Senatorial District represents the APC’s most strategic path to victory.
Since assuming office in 2022, Governor Ademola Adeleke’s PDP led administration has failed to advance Osun State despite substantial resources at its disposal. The evidence is stark:
Education in Crisis: Osun State University (UNIOSUN), once a beacon of academic excellence, has deteriorated to subpar levels compared to peer institutions in the region. Also the governor’s decision to sack 1,500 teachers without replacement has created a vacuum in the education sector that undermines the future of Osun’s children.
Employment Scandals: Successful job applicants who paid application fees remain in limbo, with the administration delaying their employment indefinitely. This betrayal of young Osun residents speaks to a government more concerned with political optics than delivering tangible results.
Health and Security Decline: Both sectors have witnessed measurable deterioration under the current administration, with citizens feeling increasingly vulnerable and underserved.
Governance by Performance: While Governor Adeleke has earned the moniker “dancing governor,” his penchant for celebration has not translated into policy substance. Allegations of crass hedonism and lack of focus have overshadowed any meaningful governance achievements.
This record of failure creates an opening for the APC—but only if the party makes the right strategic choice.
As the countdown to Osun 2026 draws nigh, several opinions have reared their heads or rent the political atmosphere. A minority like analysis have sprung up in favour of zoning the ticket to Osun West where the wobbling incumbent hails from. These yesmen naively tout the “ Edo Template” but have failed to see that the factors which favoured a Monday Okpebholo’s emergence as Edo State Governor is lacking or non-existent in the Osun scenario. I will give a few examples here.
First, Governor Adeleke will definitely run for a second term as the constitution permits him, in the Edo Template, Okpebholo was running not against an incumbent but a newbie in Asue Ighodalo, even a five year old can differentiate between the two scenarios. In addition to this, let us note that Senator Okpebholo was a sitting senator, something Osun West APC presently lacks.
Third, is the fact that Obaseki was at war with the powerful Oba of Benin, his estranged predecessor, Adams Oshiomole and his erstwhile loyal deputy, Philip Shuaibu amongst many other interest groups within the PDP at both national and state levels( Wike and Dan Orbih respectively), the same cannot be said of Adeleke who maintains strong traditional relationships and controls the party machinery.
Then there is the reputed voting strength of the Adeleke’s in Osun West, particularly in Ede North and South, such voting patterns witnessed in the days of the late Isiaka Adeleke( Serubawon) in 1992 , 2007, 2011, 2014 and then in 2017, both Isiaka and Ademola Adeleke have dominated Osun West with overwhelming margins.Both figures did consistently deliver crushing victories with massive margins which resemble some sort of cult following, the verdict is simple: any APC candidate from Osun West would face Adeleke’s home advantage without any meaningful end result. The APC has no strong man from Osun West, who can match Adeleke’s gubernatorial incumbency advantage.
While it is agreed that the principle of zoning exists to ensure equity for politically disadvantaged areas, however, Osun West has produced two governors since state creation—both from Ede Federal Constituency. Now, if fairness guides zoning, the logical approach would be: Zone to other areas within Osun West, either to Ikire or Iwo Federal Constituencies (never represented),and yet even with the number disparity, the stark reality is that Adeleke’s dominance in Ede and Osun West as a whole will readily take the wind out of such sails. In addition to this, why would the rest of Osun readily vote another son from Osun West for a possible tenure of eight years when they can pitch their tent with Adeleke, and have power shift to another zone or district? After all 4 will always be better than eight!
Again, the principle of zoning exists to ensure equity for politically disadvantaged areas. Osun West haven produced two governors since state creation—both from Ede Federal Constituency should require that another zone be presented for the election proper. If indeed fairness guides zoning, the logical approach would be to recognize zones or constituencies that have not produced a governor. Constituencies like —Ile-Ife, Ijebu-Jesa and Osogbo. This makes the equity argument favor Osun East much more stronger than any claim from Osun West, since another term for Adeleke will give Osun West three stints in Government House Oshogbo, Osun East would have only had two compared with Osun Central which has also had three stints.
The Omisore Factor?
Senator Iyiola Omisore as a political juggernaut embodies the required experience and structure to give Adeleke a good fight and return Osun APC to power. A one time deputy governor, senator, two time guber candidate and party scribe, we can readily recall how as the ‘beautiful bride’ in 2018, he helped rescue Oyetola and the APC from the jaws of defeat and it did not just end there, Omisore’s Osun East Senatorial District was the only district that delivered victory for APC in 2022 with the same Oyetola winning five local governments in Osun East.
In addition to this, readers must note that Osun East is the only district where all National Assembly members belong to APC—the senator and all representatives; why should APC then reward another zone that cannot boast of such credentials with a guber ticket?
Osun East also boasts of huge voter populations with Ife East ranking second (114,404) and Ife Central (113,232) ranking third respectively in voter strength statewide, trailing only Osogbo, a combination of these factors and
decades of Omisore’s commanding presence in Osun’s politics is the fillip for an Osun APC victory in 2026. An Omisore candidacy should guarantee that all 10 local governments in Osun East would be in the APC ‘ s kitty and serve as a springboard to the party’s victory.
In conclusion, the APC must nominate an Osun East candidate, specifically Iyiola Omisore, to defeat the incumbent in 2026. Osun East offers not only strong APC institutional presence across all legislative seats, but also proven party loyalty, electoral resilience, and high voter concentration in strategic areas. The zone can maximize margins while competing effectively in Osun Central and making inroads in Osun West.
In contrast, Osun West presents Adeleke’s overwhelming incumbency advantage in his home zone, weak APC infrastructure, and the risk of splitting the home district while failing to dominate elsewhere. Omisore has likewise demonstrated unwavering APC loyalty through total commitment and unequivocal sacrifices, along with the ability to mobilize Osun East while building coalitions in Central and West districts.
The victory formula requires maximizing margins in Osun East to create an insurmountable lead, competing strongly in Osun Central by leveraging senatorial and ministerial influence, and targeting disaffected voters in Osun West by exploiting Adeleke’s performance gaps. Drawing lessons from past elections, the APC must prioritize strategy and political realities above zoning sentiments. These considerations are indeed essential for reclaiming Osun State via an Omisore candidacy.
