Ahead of the 2026 Osun governorship election, it is incontrovertible that a consensus candidate has been chosen for the All Progressives Congress (APC). He is Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO).
While Oyebamiji’s emergence signals a strong, focused start for the APC, it might be interpreted – or perhaps, misinterpreted – that the disqualification of seven out of nine aspirants during the December 5, 2025, screening exercise is, without doubt, an indication of a wobbly institutional mechanism within the party. A revamp of the procedure used is worth undertaking to prevent a recurrence. A repetition should be prevented, going forward, to lessen the possibility of disaffection, which could lead to unintended consequences. As the Good Book warns, “… lead us not into temptation” (Matthew 6:13).
We must account for personal sensitivities, commitments, and bruised egos. These are human beings, not robots. Every serious aspirant has gone the extra mile in pursuit of what he or she perceived as a legitimate ambition. Consequently, the APC must initiate a damage control act – and do so very urgently and unpretentiously!
One particularly contested line of reasoning centres on the importance of a leader’s strong mandate in the governance structure. To this end, one must commend the party’s titular leader for using his influence as a soothing balm. So, the ‘kì-í-gbó-kì-í-gbà, (I-no-go-gree) aspirants who wear their egos on their sleeves should go and sit down! Yes, they should find something else to do!
But what are the consequences of President Bola Tinubu’s endorsement of a consensus APC candidate? The answer is clear: it will be an overwhelmingly positive development for the party, mainly by consolidating power and silencing internal dissent. The sheer weight of a presidential intervention means those who had hitherto been contemplating leaving the party will no longer have the courage to do so – after all, who would dare challenge a decision backed by the ultimate power brokers?
It will therefore be in the best interest of the less influential aspirants to quickly accept their fate and move on. If one or two juicy appointments, or contracts, come their way, they should swiftly accept and thank God. To do otherwise is to risk incurring the wrath of Aso Rock – and that’ll not be too good to contemplate!
But that’s not all; and that’s not where I am headed! The governorship election in Osun is likely to be a three-way horse race and the possibility of a runoff cannot be discarded. For its own good, Osun APC must go into the race, which is just months away, as a united front. Complacency will be dangerous to the party. Nothing must be taken for granted in the twists and turns of a very unpredictable political situation in a politically savvy state.
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Beyond all efforts, there must be intellectual humility and moral circumspection in the current sequence of events. To put it succinctly, the victor must demonstrate profound magnanimity. He must embrace genuine unity over triumph. It is to the eternal glory of Umaru Yar’Adua that he accepted that there were flaws in the process that threw him up as Nigeria’s 13th president and Head of State. He said so publicly and started to make amends, and Nigerians forgave him, even before death took him away.
For Osun APC to stand strong against any challenges that might come its way, unity is paramount. The most critical lesson from the 2022 defeat was the devastating cost of internal wrangling, which, if repeated, guarantees loss of victory at the polls. Since only a fool gets burnt twice by the same fire, the party must be prepared to rise up against internal discord and destructive rivalries, for no organization thrives or wins a battle where there is division. A seed does not bear fruit unless it is rooted deep into the ground. Unity is not optional! It is foundational!
In the Yoruba wisdom, “Kàkà kí eku má je sèsé, á á fi se àwàdànù” (Rather than the rat not eating the hard beans, it will waste it). A conciliation strategy is very key for the Tajudeen Lawal-led Osun APC, for some of the disaffected have influence in the local governments and the areas of contagion. The disaffected can, if not pacified, exact revenge, and that may be too toxic for the overall health of the party. The meaningful hymn is that the consensus candidate will be reconciling from a position of undeniable strength. It is left for those contacted to choose between the carrot of inclusion and the stick of isolation.
A good historical precedent is the outcome of the contentious primary election of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1992. Angered by what they thought was imposition, the members revolted, and the party imploded, which ultimately led to the election of Sir Michael Otedola as the Governor of Lagos State. No betting man could have thought in his wildest dreams that any National Republican Convention (NRC) candidate would have come close to being elected as the Governor of Lagos State, not even in a Nollywood movie.
Otedola won because of a mass rejection within the rank and file of the SDP. So, APC would be well-advised to learn the critical lessons from the SDP’s debacle of 1992. History does not repeat itself. The problem is that human beings do not learn the lessons of history. At a time like this, Osun APC must save itself from a potential debacle. The preponderance of the Osun electorate is at the moment in a state of mind akin to what the late Bola Ige famously described as ‘siddon look’. There is everything to play for, and complacency will be ill-advised.
Oyebamiji has to act with a strategic focus. First, he must, without hesitation, initiate a genuine peace accord with the disaffected to prevent the possibility of mutually assured destruction (MAD). Second, he must have a clear, effective media strategy to rally the support base of the unhappy members and, simultaneously, the electorate of the state around a programme offering a pro-people alternative to the present Dance-a-Thon contraption in the state. The media strategy must provide the medium to present the APC candidate as the champion of a hard-pressed people, suffering from an economic downturn and disenchantment.
This means a strategic, data-driven, and creative media thrust is vital for the consensus candidate, replicating the successful model recently deployed by the APC in Ekiti State. That instance not only ensured immediate stability but also allowed the party to swiftly pivot and focus its energies, in earnest, on the core objective: rescuing Ekitis from the doldrums of degradation.
The candidate must tailor the media message to specific focus groups across the three senatorial districts and the thirty local government areas (plus one area office). There cannot be a universal media campaign. The message must directly address the demographic bases of voter registration and be customized to ensure a maximum turnout. Furthermore, the choice of medium is key; the candidate has to work out which one will convey the message to maximum effect.
Again, to dig up a Yoruba aphorism, Èhìnkùlé lòtá wà, inú ilé laseni ńgbé” (The enemy lives in the backyard, while the evil doer lives within the house). Those who do not – and will not – leave the party could be more dangerous operating as a fifth column to undermine the party from within. Beware of the Ides of March! Julius Caesar ignored the forewarning about the Ides and the enemies within to his immortal peril!
May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!
