The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has registered two more political parties. Assistant Editor AUGUSTINE AVWODE examines the implications of their emergence for the polity.
What I see is a party that is not strong enough to make any appreciable impact on its own. I see it joining the APC, that will change the more visible two-legged arrangement of Buhari-Tinubu to a Buhar- Tinubu – Atiku. Such a tripod arrangement will sweep any other party out of the way in 2015. Since 1998 till now, a lot of things have happened and so much changes have taken place. The PDM of 1998 which installed Atiku Abubakar as vice president is not the PDM of today.
Those who had looked forward to the possibility of two mega parties slugging it out in the 2015 general election must now reconsider their opinions. With the registration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by the Independent Nation Electoral Commission (INEC), analysts and commentators had raised the hope of a likely emergence of two dominant parties, as it was in the days of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC). But with the registration by INEC of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), a political party believed to have been sponsored by close political associates of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, that may not be for now. Besides, INEC also registered another party, the Independent Democrats (ID). Their registration was made public in a statement signed by the Secretary to the commission, Augusta Chinwe Ogakeu.
Two-party system not feasible
Speaking with The Nation in a telephone interview Professor of Political Science and former Information and Culture Minister, Sam Oyovbaire said the sociology of the Nigeria political process was not considered by those who envisaged a two-party situation following the emergence of APC, which they claim would square up with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
“First there has been an unnecessary hype and exaggeration of the possibility of two major parties. We have failed to take into consideration what I call the sociology of the Nigerian political process in the sense of the fragmentation of interest and the ethnicisation or regionalization of the overall landscape.
Oyovbaire argued that the registration of the PDM, may not significantly alter the political equation in the country. He claimed that with the de-registration of some fringe parties, one would have thought that they would move and join the PDP or the APC, which already had visible image and structure, but that was not the case.
“I was thinking that with the de-registration of some of the old parties, they will find themselves in either the PDP or APC. But that has not happened because a large number of what you call the political parties have their real certificates in the pockets of people. You notice that once there is a quarrel in one of the bigger parties, people just go and buy the certificate, just for the purpose of contesting election. So, I can tell you that it is too early to talk of a two major or mega parties in the country. Though it is the ideal, nothing dramatic has happened in the sociology of the political landscape of the country that would throw up such a development”.
PDP in turmoil
With the registration of the PDM, the two leading parties must watch itheir back. Unlike the ID, the PDM struck an instant chord in the minds of Nigerians. Described as a “fairly strong movement that cuts across the country”, Oyovbaire attributed the seemingly huge image of the party to the late Gen Shehu Yar’Adua. He said the PDM could have emerged as a party if it had not joined the G34, to form the PDP. “It was curious that it did not really emerge as a party in those days because it was a very strong political movement, which was built around the late Gen. Yar’Adua. Now that it has becme a party, it will send all kinds of signals to the national process. The arrowheads are from the PDP. It is true that Atiku Abubakar has denied being a member, but it is not a bad thing for the polity”, he said.
The registration of the PDM did not come as a surprise to followers of political developments in the country. It happened against the backdrop of a complain of marginali-sation by Atiku in the scheme of things in PDP. Early last week, Atiku cried out that he was being denied his dues in the party. He cited the ommission of his name from the list of Adamawa State delegates to the planned August 31 mini- convention of the party as one of the many cases of marginalisation he has suffered.
But when the news of the registration was, he insisted that he was still a member of the PDP. He however, added that while he remains in the PDP, there was nothing he could do to stop his associates from forming a new party, if that was their wish.
According to him, the “freedom of association as enshrined in the constitution is the beauty of democracy and that he wouldn’t dissuade any of his followers from seeking a platform to promote their programmes.” The statement signed by Mallam Garba Shehu, Abubakar’s media aide read in part: “Following press enquiries on the reported registration of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) as a political party, the former Vice President said he would always welcome the expansion of the political space to accommodate all shades of opinions or political hue.
Garba Shehu, like Oyovbaire, acknowleged the role the late Gen Yar’Adua played in enthroning the PDM and the political exploits it made in those days.
“The PDM which was founded by late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, provided the impetus for his impressive performance across the country during the September 1992 Presidential primaries, which were later cancelled by the military regime. The late Yar’Adua came close to becoming President, thanks to the formidable PDM structure,” the statement said.
Nine PDP governors were also alleged to be sympathetic to the new political party. Some governors of the party, particularly, from the North, have been going round the country visiting and consulting with former Heads of State and other stakeholders on the way forward for the party. At a point Governor Nyako issued an ominous warning to the PDP that if care was not taken, it would die, and they will help to bury it.
Nyako who spoke through his Director of Press and Publications, Sajoh Ahmed, said: “We have held consultations with former the Head of State and former BoT chairman of the PDP, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, on the need for him and other major stakeholders to save the party from dying.
“We will continue to make our efforts to save the party. But if our efforts do not work, we have no alternative than to fold our arms, and see PDP die and help in burying it.”
Oyovbaire warned that the PDP must immediately retool itself, following the emergence PDM, otherwise, it will face serious challenges. According to him, there is the need for the party to learn how it operates from top to bottom. The signals coming from the different wards of the party across the country are not good enough.
“The PDP need to learn some lessons now following the registration of the PDM. And the lessons must be from top to bottom. If we use the ward as the bottom, the kind of signals coming from the ward’s level of the party across the country is not good enough. So, the emergence of the PDM should provide a lesson for the PDP to retool itself. It should not be a party for the smart guys or people with money. We need candidates with integrity, who the people can believe and have trust in; individuals that the electorate can believe in. If you follow what is happening across the nation in the party where primary elections are held or to be held, you will believe that the party has serious need of retooling. If that is not done, it should be ready to face real challenges which would come from the party that is coming out of it,” he said.
For the APC, the former minister said it must go beyond being a platform for election only to being a serious political party.
“As for the APC, the emergence of the PDM should make it think seriously about how to be a political party that transcends just being a platform for the purposes of contesting elections and getting power. It has the spread but it must be able to prove that it is not a platform for people to come and contest elections only but a serious party”, Oyovbaire said.
But another political scientist and public affairs analysts, Mallam Moyo Jaji dismissed the PDM as a force that could upset the APC. He sees the PDM as a group that will, at the end of the day, dissolve into the APC and Atiku leading the pack to the APC.
“What I see is a party that is not strong enough to make any appreciable impact on its own. I see it joining the APC. That will change the more visible two-legged arrangement of Buhari-Tinubu to a Buhar- Tinubu – Atiku. Such a tripod arrangement will sweep any other party out of the way in 2015.
“Since 1998 till now, a lot of things have happened and so much changes have taken place. The PDM of 1998 which installed Atiku Abubakar as vice president is not the PDM of today. So, let nobody deceive you, the party is not going to overtake either of APC or PDP. Many of the bigwigs that were in the PDM in those days are well established today in other parties and they won’t give up their comfort zone to start building another tower in the twilight of their political careers”, Jaji argued.
2015 may be like 2011
But the development is being interpreted to be a disservice to the electorate in the run up to 2015. Analysts say there may be no clear cut choice for the electorate who are largely illiterate. Many people expect a situation where the election that will produce the president of the country will afford the people with simple clear choice of either two or at the most three.
Just now, the United Progressives Party (UPP) has made it clear that it would give its presidential ticket to the Southeast. National Chairman of the UPP, Chief Chekwas Okorie has severally maintained that the party’s presidential ticket has been reserved for the region.
In like manner, observers say the PDM, if it decides to go solo, will likely give the ticket to a northerner. A chieftain of the PDP from the Southsouth zone informed The Nation on condition of anonymity that the PDM was registered solely to checkmate the second term ambition of President Goodluck Jonathan by northern element.
“From all indications, the emergence of PDM is for a singular purpose and that is to stop President Goodluck Jonathan. Though he has not told anybody that he would contest in 2015, many people have concluded that he will surely run and that he is only bidding his time. Of course, they know he will get the ticket if he chooses to run. So, they realised that they cannot make it in the PDP, they have gone to create another platform to realize that.
“There are some people from the North who do not want to see him run. Take for instance, the interim National Chairman of the new party, Bashir Ibrahim Yusuf, he is not just a former political adviser to Atiku Abubakar, he is the Secretary of the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF).”
Yusuf said the formation of the party was give Nigerians more choices and provide a paradigm shift from the existing structure.
“We formed the party because we are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs in the country. We believe that the existing political parties do not offer voters and Nigerians as a whole enough choices and do not advance their interests and we believe and have seen that all the existing political parties are united in upholding the current order and the status quo and we believe that since we have been on this path for these many years without any progress, that there is need for a paradigm shift.”
Nigerians will decide the fate of the old and new parties in 2015.
