In Ogun State, the governorship contest will be hotly contested, reports Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan
AHEAD of the 2015 general election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its main rival, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are locked in a fierce battle over which political party will form the next civilian administration in Ogun State.
Given the political scenario in the state, following the last gubernatorial election that saw Governor Ibikunle Amosun thrashing the then ruling PDP, analysts say an epic battle is underway in the state as voters in all the nooks and crannies of the Gateway state will be filing out next month to elect a governor.
While the All Progressives Congress (APC), which incidentally is the ruling party in the state, has vowed not to allow what happened to it in Ekiti last year, when it lost to Ayo Fayose of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), repeat itself in Ogun State, the PDP on its own is determined to increase the tally of the state under its control in the zone.
Currently, the APC is in control of the four states of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun and Osun. The PDP is in charge of Ekiti and Ondo states following Fayose’s surprise victory and Governor Olusegun Mimiko’s recent cross-carpeting from the Labour Party, on which platform he got elected twice, into the PDP.
The coming of both Fayose and Mimiko no doubt, is responsible for the renewed vigour with which the PDP is pursuing its aspirations in the South-West. Specifically, Mimiko has severally been credited with efforts aimed at reconciling warring factions in the Ogun State chapter of the PDP. It was his numerous efforts that reportedly resulted in the unity rally held by the party few months back.
Also, hardly had Fayose been elected governor of Ekiti State than he stormed Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, with Ogun PDP leader, Prince Buruji Kashamu, on a sensitisation rally meant to urge party leaders and members in the state to be prepared to dislodge APC from office in the 2015 gubernatorial election.
Fayose also met other PDP chieftains, including former Governor Gbenga Daniel, ex-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole, amongst others. According to sources within the party, both Mimiko and Fayose have been mandated by the national leadership of the PDP to do ‘everything possible’ to assist the Ogun state chapter of the party in clinching victory at the next polls.
Amosun looks good
However, analysts are of the opinion that winning the 2015 governorship election in the state for PDP may be a tall order. This is because, to majority of the people of the state across political party lines, Governor Ibikunle Amosun has performed well in his first term.
“Given Governor Amosun’s track record of achievements in the last four years, I don’t see how the opposition parties will convince the people of the state to deny him a second term. The governor has shown with his actions that he is committed to rapid development of the state.
“If you go round the state and sound out the people concerning what they feel about his performance, especially in the area of urban renewal, which has seen the massive construction of roads and bridges across the state, you will see how pleased the people are with him. Even in the rural areas, his electrification and water projects have endeared him to the people.
“With this scenario, it will be an uphill task for the PDP or the Labour Party or the SDP to defeat him next month. While I agree there could be surprises in politics, the current situation in Ogun State does not favour an upset,” Barrister Bayo Biobaku, human rights activist and state coordinator of Joint Action Congress (JACON), told The Nation.
It is a widely shared opinion in the state that beyond rhetoric, the likes of Gboyega Isiaka of the PDP will have to convince the people that they have what it takes to surpass the sterling performance of the current governor, who is incidentally seeking another term to, according to him “consolidate on our transformation agenda.”
“We have listened to many candidates and their parties seeking our votes. They have told us many things Amosun didn’t do well. But we have also seen many things he did well. So, beyond mere promises, his opponents need to tell the people, especially the common folks, why they should vote for them at next year’s polls, instead of the man who has within three years, shown us all that government can actually serve the people.
“What Governor Amosun has achieved in the area of infrastructural development and empowerment is unprecedented in the history of governance here in our state. It will be a miracle if any of his opponents get half of the votes I expect him to get during the election. Ogun people are not bothered by the intrigues and politics going on amongst politicians and other political gladiators. They will be voting based on what they have seen,” Comrade Lukman Banjoko, an official of Sagamu Community Development Council (SCDC), said.
Aside his widely perceived good performance, Amosun may also benefit from the unending internal crisis that has rocked the main opposition party, the PDP, since it was ousted from government in 2011. Given the state of the party today, it is unlikely that it can muster enough strength to give APC a good fight, not to talk of defeating Amosun in the governorship contest.
The crisis that followed the emergence of Gboyega Isiaka from Ogun West, as the candidate of the party is still simmering with ex-Speaker Bankole threatening to dump the party unless he is presented with the ticket without delay. Talks that the Bankole/OGD faction may be heading towards the Aremo Segun Osoba-led Social Democratic Party (SDP) any moment from now continue to unsettle chieftains and members of the party.
Efforts, even by the national leadership of the party, to end the stalemate, failed as Daniel and Kashamu are also currently locked in a fierce battle over who should fly the senatorial banner of the party in Ogun East. While Kashamu insists he won the senatorial primary election of the party, Daniel says the national leadership of the party asked him to contest the senatorial election as part of a peace deal.
PDP’s dilemma
But with Isiaka and Kashamu’s names submitted to INEC by the party, Bankole and Daniel, surprised to be left in the cold, are embittered and unwilling to back the party’s flag-bearers ahead of next month’s polls. The situation, according to a chieftain of the troubled party, Honourable Dave Salako, who served two terms in the National Assembly representing Remo North Federal Constituency, may once again cost the PDP another opportunity to win the state.
“All is not well and this is because of the actions of the party organs at the top; that is the leaders of the party. It starts from the national chairman, to the National Working Committee (NWC) and whoever that is in the party’s hierarchy. This is because they have seen all that is happening in Ogun State and they are not applying the right antidotes to solve these problems. It seems they are turning away their eyes from the reality.
We have been inundated with calls everywhere after we found that wrong names were being published as the PDP candidates. Our problem started from the congresses as you are aware, to the primaries and to where we are now. You should know that there were no primaries in Ogun State. Then, how come there was the emergence of candidates? That is a big question. So, all is not well in Ogun State PDP and we can only tell our people to be calm until we have these problems resolved.
“From the way it is, the solution is far-fetched and I can only speak for myself that come rain, come shine, I will still be in the PDP. Our followers, the electorate, are very angry and they want to move to another party. There is no amount of appeal one can make to them unless the party does the right thing and do justice, fairness and equity,” Salako said.
Lamenting what he called the “Buruji fire” in Ogun PDP, Salako said he and others had the opportunity of joining Daniel in Labour Party but chose instead to convince the former governor to return to the PDP.
“In order for us to come together, almost three years to put things together, I relinquished my senatorial ambition to Gbenga Daniel. I wanted him to come back to PDP at that time. Only God knows what it took us to bring them back. Thank God they are back but unfortunately, they are back into the fire of Buruji again.
“It is a hard thing to say, Daniel was lobbying us to come to the Labour Party. If we had known, we would have joined him there. We would have had a rest of mind and peace and we would be confident of winning the coming election.
“I relinquished that position and said I will take anything as long as we win, even if it is ordinary board appointment. They asked, what about deputy, I said anything,” Salako added.
Some chieftains of the party in the state insist that the Adamu Mu’azu-led NWC has not helped matters. To many of the aggrieved party men and women, should the PDP lose the state, Mu’azu and his team should be blamed for pandering too much to the whims and caprices of Buruji Kashamu as against the opinions of the majority in the party.
“The worst thing that happened to our party was the decision of our leaders to give Kashamu more recognition than any other chieftain of the party here in Ogun State. That was the beginning of the end for us as a political party. How many people here in Ogun already lined up behind Kashamu politically?
Even in his Ogun East Senatorial District, his candidacy will affect the party negatively. Recently, a leading traditional ruler from the area vowed to resist the emergence of Kashamu as senator representing the area. What that means is that such an Oba is ready to work against the PDP.
The monarch asked why the PDP deemed it fit, of all its chieftains and aspirants, to give the people of Ogun East someone like Kashamu as senatorial candidate. This is an Oba from Kashamu’s own zone. If he is unacceptable to his own people, what magic can he and his candidates wrought to win across the state? With the current situation in the PDP, I am sad to say Amosun will have it easy getting re-elected,” Fola Coker, a chieftain of the party told The Nation.
Speaking on the Kashamu issue, Hon. Salako said unless the party addresses certain fundamental issues, the problem in Ogun PDP will affect its chances in the election.
“I am blaming them for not doing what is right. They are the cause of our problem and I want to stand by it that unless the party addresses that area, there are going to be problems. You cannot stop people from moving because there is freedom of association but some of us stakeholders will remain in the party until we get justice to our side.
“I don’t have any serious axe to grind with Buruji. The only axe I have to grind with him is that he should be honest and that he should be far away from anything that is politically wrong. He has done so many things that I have seen that are very politically wrong and he is getting away with them. I have pointed them out several times. I have taken him to court but instead of him backing out, he is bringing another weird dimension to the politics of Nigeria. He would get a black document and he wants to call it white to everybody. I verily believe that the man doesn’t want us to win in Ogun State.
“I have it in my mind that he is working for the APC because if you look at all the candidates he fielded in his so-called order, they are all weak ducklings that can never stand any election and win, though with due respect to those candidates. I challenge him: can he win the Ogun East Senatorial seat for us? He cannot. He is not even qualified. We will challenge him when the time comes. We cannot be under the same umbrella with him unless he mends his ways. Don’t you think the situation on ground appears a playback of the 2011 episode when internal crises contributed to PDP’s defeat??
“Absolutely, it does. This is a replica of what actually happened in 2011. Let us look at what happened then. Buruji and his cohorts at that time made sure that Otunba Gbenga Daniel and others were sent out of the party. He went to the PPN and the result is here. We lost the election.
“I am sure if we are not careful, the same thing will repeat because people are itching to move to another party and not to stay under the same umbrella with Buruji. And if they do, we cannot stop them and we will lose that election again. We thought this is a great opportunity for us to claim back our lost glory in Ogun State,” he said.
Jonathan, Buhari factors
The February election in Ogun State will also be affected by acceptability and otherwise of the two frontline presidential candidates, President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari. According to reports, there is serious anxiety within the PDP over Buhari’s soaring popularity amongst the people of the state.
APC’s choice of Yemi Osibajo, an indigene of Ikenne-Remo in Ogun State as Buhari’s running mate has also increased the worry of Kashamu, Isiaka and their party men and women, The Nation learnt.
“If we as a party are not careful in some of our states, we are in trouble, especially when Major General Muhammadu Buhari has picked his running mate from South-West, specifically from Ogun State, Ogun East and indeed from my own constituency, Remo. We have to work harder,” Salako admits.
But a member of the national campaign committee of the President Goodluck Jonathan 2015 Campaign Organisation, Elder Joju Fadairo, said Osibajo’s candidacy notwithstanding, the PDP stands a good chance of winning in Ogun state come February.
Fadairo, a former state chairman of the party, said that with the impact of the Jonathan transformation agenda in the state, he is confident that PDP will perform well in the state in spite of all the odds.
“We have done a lot with the transformation agenda. It is my belief that PDP will do well in Ogun State in spite of all the odds against us as a party. We have good candidates and Mr. President’s achievement will work in our favour. The people of Ogun State are for PDP,” he said.
But a former national auditor of the PDP, Chief Bode Mustapha, said such optimism on the part of PDP is wishful thinking.
“Where are they going to get that? Well, let us wait and see. The Buhari-change syndrome is spreading to every nook and cranny of the state. The achievements of the incumbent governor here shall complement the votes here. It is going to be maximum votes here for APC,” Mustapha assured.
“Our people are wise now. APC is the party to beat in Ogun State and February is just days away, we shall see,” Mustapha said.
SDP as a spoiler
Although many would say Amosun is poised to be re-elected, there are fears in some quarters that he may have to contend with the threat posed by the sudden emergence of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on the scene few months back.
The SDP, founded and led by former governor of the state, Chief Olusegun Osoba, an erstwhile political ally of Governor Amosun’s, according to pundits, should not be underestimated in the politics of the state. This position is based on the fact that Osoba’s faction of the APC, which moved into the APC, is made up of many notable political heavyweights as far as the politics of Ogun State is concerned.
Not a few were shocked when Osoba led eminent members of the ruling party, including the deputy governor, national and state assembly members, party officials and notable chieftains, to defect to the SDP, after months of intractable differences with the governor.
And on November 12, 2014, the three senators from the state, Adegbenga Kaka (Ogun East), Akin Odunsi (Ogun West) and Gbenga Obadara (Ogun Central) formally announced their defection from the APC to the SDP on the floor of the Senate. The three senators backed their action with the presentation of their letters of defection to Senate President David Mark.
Same day, seven out of the nine House of Representatives members from the state also notified the National Assembly of their defection to the SDP in Ogun. The House of Representatives members include Adekunle Adeyemi, Abiodun Abudu-Balogun, Kehinde Odeneye, Bukunola Buraimoh, Babatunde Ogunola and Olumide Osoba.
Back home in Abeokuta, three members in the Ogun House of Assembly dumped the ruling APC for the SDP. The state legislators, who jumped on the bandwagon of defection to the SDP, include Oludaisi Elemide, Olufemi Allen-Taylor and Elizabeth Anifowoshe.
And following the primary elections of both the APC and the PDP, aspirants, who lost in the primary elections for the various elective positions due to the alleged imposition of candidates, have defected to swell the ranks of the SDP across the state.
It is this happenings within the SDP that is fuelling the fear of a re-enactment of the 2011 situation when the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) broke away from the then ruling PDP in the state, culminating in the loss of power to the then Action Congress of Nigeria.
However, Senator Kaka said it is wrong to see the SDP as a party out to spoil the chance of another party. According to him, the party will contest and win the February elections.
“SDP is not out to spoil anybody’s chances. We are out to win elections because we are the true representatives of the people. So, if we have promoted some people and they have failed the people, we still have to go back to the people and tell them that it is not the message we sent them. That is not the direction we want them to go. This is the direction; this is the way forward and that is the exact thing we are doing and we are so confident that the people know their leaders and they know those that they have tried and they have their trust in them. So, by the grace of God, we are far from playing any spoiler role. We are out to win and win handsomely to the chagrin of those who are destroying the state,” Kaka said.
But the Deputy Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Tola Banjo, has allayed fears of the SDP spoiling the chances of the ruling party in next year’s poll. According to the lawmaker, the SDP is a non-issue that should not give anyone any headache.”
