A combination of record of sterling performance in office, ability to bond with the grassroots and campaign messages that resonated with voters helped Governor Rauf Aregbesola of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to defeat his main challenger and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyiola Omisore. In this report, Assistant Editor ADEKUNLE YUSUF examines other factors that shaped the election.
The governorship election in Osun State was widely expected to end in bloodshed, particularly if the electoral sovereignty of the people was subverted. But, rather, the state erupted into wild jubilation in celebration of the re-election of Governor Rauf Aregbesola. It was perceived as a well-deserved victory for the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Except in Ile-Ife, where people were seen brooding over the loss of an opportunity of having a son of the soil on the number seat, men and women – old and young — took to the dancing floor as if a statewide party had been declared. From Ikirun to Osogbo, capital of Osun State, and almost all major towns and communities, it was partying galore. Many residents drank to stupor, while some drove recklessly, waving the broom, the symbol of the APC.
To secure another four years in office, Aregbesola polled a total of 394, 684 votes to defeat his main challenger and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyiola Omisore, who got 292,753 votes. In an election that was adjudged to be generally peaceful and credible, Aregbesola trounced Omisore in 22 out of 30 local government areas in the state, which satisfied the constitutional requirements of winning in at least two-thirds of the councils. With this feat, Aregbesola has become the first governor in the history of the 23-year old state to win a re-election.
Addressing thousands of residents who had gathered at the popular Freedom Park in Osogbo, Aregbesola said he is humbled by the victory, promising that the show of genuine love and appreciation by the people will make him to further rededicate himself to the service of the state. “I have never doubted your love and genuine appreciation. I can only thank you. I thank you all,” he said in an emotionally charged tone. The equally ecstatic audience responded by waving of broomsticks and shouts of “change, change, change.”
Tortuous road to victory
Although Aregbesola won the election convincingly, the road to victory was not smooth for him. Since the resurgence of the PDP in the state since last year, Aregbesola has battled to maintain the firm grip his party initially enjoyed on Osun politics. He had had to continually explain and re-explain policies of the administration, which the opposition sought to discredit to curry favour. Omisore, who had spent time and stupendous resources to breathe life into tattered remnants of the PDP left behind by former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, was often busy taking policies and actions of the state government to the cleaners — which some say worked to some extent.
For example, the PDP worked very hard to profit from the demolition of several houses in Osogbo, which was done either to pave way for the dualisation of some roads or give the state a facelift through the government’s urban renewal intervention. The opposition also sought to reap from controversies that brewed over the school merging and reclassification policy of Aregbesola, by allegedly sponsoring and fanning the fire of acrimony between Muslims and Christians over wearing of hijab to public schools.
Campaigns of calumny
Throughout the campaigns, Aregbesola’s APC was incessantly lampooned by the PDP attack dogs as lacking in internal democracy. They did not just cast aspersions on him, his policies were derided and villified as anti-people, using propaganda that confused not a few. Diran Odeyemi, Director of Publicity of Omisore Campaign Organisation, bashed Aregbesola and his party to no end, labeling him a religious fundamentalist. Omisore and his team never acknowledged that anything good had been done by the sitting administration. The PDP also branded the APC as a party that is not domiciling the economy of the state. It alleged that all the plum contracts were being handled by those it called the Lagos Boys, and promised that the party would send them back to Lagos. “There is no water project anywhere. The roads are bad across the state. Government is a serious business; it is not for jobbers. It is not for unserious people. Look at our debt profile now; it is about N438 billion and there is nothing on (the) ground to show for it. He has no reason to owe any worker in this state. He has no business owing O’YES cadets or not funding the project he started. But because he has a master in Lagos, Bola Tinubu, it is an ajele relationship. He is repatriating our money to Lagos,” Omisore alleged in one of his interviews before the poll.
According to the PDP flag bearer, and his campaigners, almost all the laudable interventions of Aregbesola in education, health and other sectors will be changed, if not done away with outrightly, if given the chance to govern the state. Comrade Amitolu Shittu, who is the Director-General of De Raufs Volunteer Group, which championed the ideals and re-election Aregbesola, said the spin game of the PDP did not resonate with the people because they appreciate the changing face of Osun under the APC, especially those who believe that the state would be the loser if the numerous ongoing projects in the state are not completed due to lack of continuity in government. The notable human rights activist added that the “game would probably have been different had Omisore acknowledged the monumental achievements of Aregbesola and promise to improve on them,” for the people believe in Aregbesola who is generally perceived as a passionate leader.
But the PDP got its match in Kunle Oyatomi, state publicity secretary of the APC. In an equally vicious manner, Oyatomi constantly reminded the people that Omisore’s sudden adoption of local appellations, identifying and eating with the common people on the streets, buying items from petty traders and paying in multiple fold, as well as distributing foodstuffs to the electorate were barefaced baits to seduce voters. But the APC handlers, suspicious that Omisore’s sudden modesty might be a fraudulent tactic to gain undeserved advantage, effectively cast him in the mould of a thug, hooligan and devil — an antithesis of the Omoluabi ethos upon which the state prides itself.
Omisore’s antecedents
Perhaps buoyed by the easy electoral victory of Ayodele Fayose, the party’s Ekiti State governor-elect, Omisore’s campaign team laboured in vain throughout the electioneering exercise to make him look like Fayose. Although it is an undeniable fact that Omisore lacks Fayose’s charisma and touch with the masses, he was desperate to be portrayed as another Fayose in Osun. But the attempt flopped. Omisore, who won election into the Senate in 2003, while in the prison custody, uncharacteristically rode on a motorcycle and displayed two pieces of roasted corn he had bought on his way to the campaign ground. Despite having a huge war chest and the support of the PDP-led federal government, Omisore battled unsuccessfully to wriggle out of his Achille’s heel: his association with the assassination of Bola Ige, former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, who was a highly respected son of the state. Though he has been discharged and acquitted, the PDP candidate was sufficiently tainted by the accusation of his involvement in Ige’s murder. His bizarre and lacklustre campaign, which was a poor carricature of Fayose’s, was unable to wash him clean of this.
At the well-attended APC mega rally in Osogbo last Wednesday where Oyinlola defected from the PDP to the APC, the immediate past governor of the state delivered a speech extempore that further exposed Omisore’s character flaws. In the speech, Oyinlola described him an egoist and sadist. “Omisore is greedy and selfish. I don’t know who killed Bola Ige. But the person nominated by Omisore to replace me as national secretary of the PDP was with him in prison (when Omisore was standing trial for Ige’s murder); the person he nominated as minister of police affairs (Jelili Adesiyan) was with him in prison too; the person who is being nominated to run for Osun Central senatorial district seat (Kunle Alao) was also with him in jail); the state chairman (Gani Olaoluwa) was also with him in jail. It is only his deputy governorship candidate (Adejare Bello) that did not go to jail with them. Are we saying that if we don’t go to jail we cannot lead,” Oyinlola asked, which punctured in no small measure Omisore’s already fragile reputation.
Aregbesola’s performance
Rather than getting carried away by campaigns of calumny by the PDP, Aregbesola’s team embarked on a blitzkrieg of a campaign, largely issues-based, ably directed and coordinated by the irrepressible Senator Sola Adeyeye. The party flaunted its achievements, which the people can see, and used opportunities of its rallies to address controversial issues that could have spelt doom for the incumbent governor’s chances. The establishment of Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme (O‘YES), which is said to have employed over 40,000, was also a deft stroke that worsened Omisore’s chances. Not only were the youths engaged, they helped to broaden Aregbesola’s support base. So was his programme in education, which is unprecedented in the history of the state.
Besides building mega schools with super infrastructures and modern appurtenances that many residents found unbelievable, he equally introduced programmes such the O’Meals that feeds hundreds of thousand of students daily, and another for clothing of students. These populist programmes endeared the governor to parents and students alike. The construction on many township roads and ambitious dualisation projects embarked upon by the state gave Aregbesola a public perception as an excellent public administrator. At Biket Hospital junction in Osogbo, a boy of about 12 years was seen campaigning vigorously for the APC at night a day before the election. His reason for idolising Aregbesola is as a result of the government’s intervention in education, especially how the governor identifies with students by wearing their uniform.
However, rather than just basking in the euphoria of its record of sterling achievements in the last three and a half years, the APC campaign team, as a brilliant way of laying the issues bare before the electorate, framed the just-concluded election not just as a contest between Aregbesola and Omisore. It deftly primed the race as a competition between the forces of progress and backwardness, hope and despair, as well as those of light and darkness, asking people to choose whatever they wanted. As if it is the underdog in the race, the APC mounted a fierce campaign that took it to all the nooks and crannies of the state, beckoning residents to compare what has been achieved in almost four years under Aregbesola with the previous administration under the PDP that lasted more than seven years. Using all means available, the governor’s team sold his candidature to the public as a caring and pro-masses leader that can do more, if given the opportunity to do so.
In the words of Senator Jide Omoworare, representing Osun East, the election was a contest between popularity and notoriety, saying with aplomb that Osun State will not want to go back to Egypt — an apparent reference to Omisore’s antecedents, which many find not too attractive in a state that prides itself as the home of the Omoluabi. “We had no doubt about our chances to win. Our candidate is popular, while their own is notorious. If election is a popularity contest, we will win easily because we are confident that our people will not want to go back to Egypt,” he said.
Disunity in PDP
Apart from character differences between the two major candidates in the election, the perception in Yorubaland that the PDP-led federal government is anti-Southwest is another factor that hurt the prospects of Omisore. Residents were constantly reminded that this is the first time any administration at the federal level will relegate the zone to irrelevance in the scheme of things in the country. Oyinlola made it a huge campaign issue during the APC mega rally in Osogbo that President Goodluck Jonathan has been unfair to and disdainful of the Southwest, pointing to the lopsidedness that has characterised appointments and sharing of major political offices during the last four administration. APC chieftains and afficionados drummed it into people’s ears that the administration of the PDP under President Jonathan has not executed any project in the state. When this issue came up during the mega rally of the PDP, which took place before that of the APC, President Jonathan merely asked Osun residents to cast their votes for Omisore, saying he will tell them what he intends to do for the state by the time he comes back on a visit to the state.
Another masterstroke that fetched Aregbesola the victory song is the disunity in the PDP, which triggered mass defections from its fold to the APC. Due to irreconcilable differences and the general perception of Omisore as not the best for the state, many top chieftains of the party in the state left the fold specifically for that reason. Although the PDP spokespersons consistently maintained that the defections would not hurt the party, Omisore went into the poll with a battered army of followers without the requisite input of movers and shakers of the party in the state that made things tick in the past. Apart from Oyinlola who left the PDP with thousands of his followers, Isiaka Adeleke is another influential former governor who quit the self-styled largest political party in Africa to augment the camp of the APC. By the time the votes were counted, it was obvious that the PDP did not recover from the bruises left behind by a wave of mass defections that hit it. In Ede North and South, which traditionally were regarded as PDP strongholds, Aregbesola won resoundingly in the two local government areas — a feat partly made possible by Adeleke who is fondly called Serubawon by his people. Similar things happened in many other places that the APC would have found difficult to make an inroad.
Aregbesola’s grassroots
support
Being a man that is well schooled in the art of politics, Aregbesola has run an administration that is not defective in marrying governance and politicking. Right from his assumption of office in 2010, the governor has developed and implemented strategies that helped him bond with the people. Having branded himself as Oranmiyan, a progenitor the Yoruba respect and adore forever, the governor left no one in doubt that his is an unusual administration that does not want to leave any segment behind. Aregbesola, a fair-minded and God-fearing politician, is seen generally in the state as a governor that is always trying to please everybody and group — be it Muslims, Christians and traditionalists. That is perhaps why his candidature was backed by several organisations, including the labour unions. He also enjoyed the backing of several mushroom groups such as the De Raufs Volunteer Group, The Oranmiya, The Vanguard, Total Victory Group, among others, which worked tirelessly promoting his candidature.
Boasting about his chances before the election, Aregbesola said he is a product of the popular forces. “I am a product of the popular forces, the people, and I am part and parcel of them. I emanated from them and I am a product of their struggles. What is known as stomach infrastructure is what we know as interaction, engagement, living with the people and meeting their aspirations and needs. That is what I have been doing from the beginning of this administration. I identify with them on a daily basis in their struggle to live and they understand that everything we do is to make life easy for them. My administration does not suffer from alienation from the people; it is one and the same with the people and that is the basis of our confidence in their ever-ready support at all times,” Aregbesola said in an interview before the polls.
Osun’s geo-political
demographics
On the whole, another big factor that helped to sideline Omisore is the geography of birth of the two political gladiators. Interestingly, for the first time in the history of the state, both Aregbesola and Omisore hail from the same Osun East senatorial district, regarded as the largest in the state in terms of voting strength. However, while Omisore, a Christian, is from Ile Ife, Aregbesola, a devout Muslim, hails from Ilesa. The same district is populated mainly by Christians. Though Omisore won in Ile Ife, which has four local government areas and more voting strength than Ilesa, which has two local government areas, he could not get enough votes to dance the victory dance. The reason is that Aregbesola’s Ilesa, an Ijesa community, enjoys same historical, cultural and linguistic affinities with other comunities in Ijesaland such as those in Oriade, Obokun, Atatkunmosa East and Atakunmosa West local government areas — all comprising six local government areas. All these delivered a block vote for Aregbesola. A breakdown of the result announced by INEC showed that the APC won in the following local government areas: Ilesa East (16,106), Ilesa West (15,427), Oriade (12,523), Atakumosa West (6,928), Atakumosa East (9,287), and Obokun (11,696), while the PDP pocketed votes only in Ife South (12,811), Ife North (9,841), Ife Central (24,555), and Ife East (20,831).
Although the state is known for its liberal nature in terms of religion, it is an issue that sometimes plays a defining factor in the politics of the state. Aregbesola, a Muslim from a predominantly Christian-dominated section of the state, enjoys a statewide popularity. That is why Aregbesola was embraced in other parts of the state, especially in communities that are predominantly Muslim, who see him as one of their own. Unlike Omisore that garnered votes mainly in his areas, Aregbesola enjoys massive popularity and support outside his place of birth, especially in predominantly Muslim-dominated areas such as Osogbo, Ikirun, Iwo, Ede, Iragbiji, Ejigbo, Ila Orangun, Ikire and other communities, which backed him solidly with their votes despite the siege on the state by heavily armed security agents that the PDP-led federal government deployed to the state. All this and many more robbed Omisore, who had reportedly boasted that he would rather die if he did not win the election, of chances to sing the victory song.
