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Tag: President Goodluck Jonathan

  • Is anyone really subverting Jonathan’s govt?

    Is anyone really subverting Jonathan’s govt?

    President Goodluck Jonathan pursues red herrings with relentlessness that shames his security forces’ pusillanimous effort to exterminate the Boko Haram menace he now says threatens his government. Dr Jonathan’s dilemma is clear: in his uncomplicated philosophy, he had expected to run a presidency that would not be challenged beyond its normal capacity, that would not be threatened by any force, overt or covert, that would have easy ride into fame and acclaim. His delicate worldview explains why he constantly sees plans to bring down his government when all he is confronted with is simple criminality committed by extremists, sponsored or self-motivated. If anyone, therefore, expects the Jonathan government to rise up to the challenges confronting his government with the seriousness and brilliance great leaders muster, such expectations are obviously misplaced.

    Speaking at the Democracy Day interdenominational church service in Abuja last Sunday, Dr Jonathan said this of Boko Haram: “You can imagine if this government had not been facing these distractions within this period, definitely, we would have moved farther than this. All these distractions are planned to bring this government down and since they failed, terror will also fail. We have been witnessing terror attacks for two years plus, but the Chibok incident has added a major dent on the security of the country. There is nothing God cannot do. With your prayers, our girls will be seen by our security personnel. Terror will not stop this country from progressing. We know that these terrorists are human and they are evil men. Definitely, they are among those we categorise as evil forces. Forces of evil will never prevail. Forces of darkness will never prevail. I call on all Nigerians, Christians and non-Christians who pray, to continue to pray and I believe that God is on our side. Forces of evil and darkness will never prevail.”

    His view on the Boko Haram insurgency is a disingenuous variant of the conspiracy theories he and some of his aides began to nurture when all their puny efforts to rein in the sect failed. He had tried propaganda, but this weapon failed because the art of propaganda, a common denominator in many dictatorships, proved too arduous and complex for him and his cabinet. Then he tried prayer, but his prayers and those of others he was able to rally when the insurgency started to take on fierce urgency fell flat on his discredited theology, a theology he characteristically anchored on nothing resembling personal, public or governmental fidelity to truth, justice and equity. And rather than find ingenious ways of ending the rebellion, he first considered it as nothing bigger than a routine challenge to a secular government, then turned round to clothe it with religion to enable him preach and proffer the anodyne effects of more prayers.

    But even if it were true that someone, not the least Boko Haram, conspired to bring down his government, should his response be to assail the problem with lethargy and unending dissimulation? It was expected he would reorganise his security forces, adopt a scientific approach to combating the terrorists, and execute his counterterrorism strategies with conviction and determination that admit no chance of failure. Rather than inspiringly lead the charge, however, he has sought to curry sympathy, mine religious emotions, lather them with ethnic sentiments propagated by his sabre-rattling and rabble-rousing supporters, and top them with wasteful, uncoordinated and ineffective style of governance. He and his commanders can’t even agree on strategy, with him ruling out negotiation, and his officers expediently counselling and countenancing anything but force.

    More than six weeks after the abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls, and well after the president and his aides had finally managed to persuade themselves against their natural instincts that an abduction took place, neither he nor his commanders are sure how many schoolgirls were actually abducted, let alone calibrate their strategies to match the information at their disposal. Dr Jonathan must understand that the Boko Haram menace is less about bringing down his government than subverting the entire country and its constitution. The terrorists are not so stupid to think that by deposing Dr Jonathan, the decadent system that enrages them would unravel. They know that in spite of what Dr Jonathan thinks of himself, he is irrelevant in their calculations. It is time the president began to de-emphasise himself in the equation and appreciate that the peace and security of the country transcend his feeling of self-importance. He must understand that his government’s appalling tactics of sponsoring countervailing “Bring Back Our Girls” demonstrations to focus on the terrorists rather than his failing presidency is cheap and counterproductive.

  • ‘Fed Govt may borrow N1trillion’

    ‘Fed Govt may borrow N1trillion’

    THE Federal Government may overshoot its borrowing estimates by some N429 billion this year as its fiscal deficit widened.

    President Goodluck Jonathan last Friday handed over the signed 2014 budget to the Coordinating Minister of the economy and Minister of Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, five months after initial budget presentation to the National Assembly.

    The N4.7 trillion 2014 budget indicates fiscal deficit of N912 billion, slightly higher than N887.1 billion recorded last year.

    An investment report by leading securities firm, Afrinvest West Africa, stated that the increasing fiscal deficit could lead to higher-than-expected debt issuance in 2014, given the trend of public finance in recent years.

    According to the report, the increasing fiscal deficit from N887.1bn in 2013 to N912.0bn in 2014 highlights the likelihood of a higher debt issuance to augment spending in 2014.

    The report noted that in 2013, the government intended to borrow N577.1 billion but overshot the estimate and issued a total of about N900 billion, 55.9 per cent above the estimated debt issue.

    “As a result, we anticipate the government will borrow over N1 trillion by the end of 2014 relative to the planned N571.1 billion proposed. The late signing of the budget implies the implementation rate maybe significantly lower than the average 40 per cent in addition to the likely impact of the build-up to the 2015 election which is may delay the execution of capital projects,” the report stated.

    The Nation’s investigation indicated that the government has been exceeding its debt estimates and running widely against its Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) 2012-2015. The MTFF 2012 to 2015 outlines government’s incomes and expenditure profiles over the four-year period.

    During the course of the four-year fiscal plan, government had planned to borrow N2.59 trillion through the domestic debt market with an average yearly borrowing of N648 billion. Domestic borrowings were expected to trend downward from N794.4 billion in 2012 to N752.9 billion in 2013 and subsequently to N578.72 billion and N461.75 billion in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

    The MTFF showed that government would use N1.93 trillion to service domestic debts while another N180 billion would be used to service foreign debts. Government planned to gradually reduce amounts for debt servicing gradually from N511.98 billion in 2012 to N543.38 billion in 2013 and subsequently to N446.62 billion and N423.39 billion in 2014 and 2015.

    Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has said that Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa and 14 other Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries under its rating services will borrow an equivalent of $61 billion from long-term domestic or global commercial sources in the year.

    This would be a 49 per cent increase in long-term commercial debt issuance compared with 2013. Standard & Poor’s (S & P) expects that $48 billion of the total commercial borrowing of $61 billion will be raised in local currencies.

    In its “Sub-Saharan African Sovereign Debt Report 2014”, S & P indicated that the end of the year, the stock of total outstanding sovereign debt from commercial sources by rated countries would have risen to $315 billion from $273 billion in 2013.

    “We expect that Nigeria and South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies, will issue the lion’s share of government debt in the region, at $36 billion in total, or about three-fifths of the total. Nigeria will issue $14 billion while South Africa will issue $22 billion,” S & P said.

    According to the report, about 26 per cent, or $16 billion of the sovereigns’ total gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement for new debt of $45 billion.

    “Consequently, we project that rated sub-Saharan African sovereigns’ commercial debt stock will reach an equivalent of $315 billion by the end of 2014, and that the total commercial and concessional debt stock will reach $392 billion, up from $342 billion, a year-on-year increase of $50 billion, or 14.6 per cent,” S & P stated.

    The report projected that during 2014 the share of commercial speculative rated sovereign debt will stand at 47 per cent of total sub-Saharan commercial debt, while the share of rated investment-grade debt–primarily issued by South Africa–will stand at 53 per cent of total commercial issuance.

    The report added that if borrowing from official lenders is included, the overall long-term borrowing will be $74 billion in the year as the share of non-commercial official borrowing, including bilateral and multilateral, is set to reach $13 billion.

    “According to our calculations, Nigeria and Ghana will face the highest debt rollover ratios, including short-term debt, as a percentage of total debt among rated sub-Saharan African sovereigns, reaching 28 per cent and 26 per cent. The rollover ratios of sovereigns with a higher proportion of official debt tend to be lower, because official debt typically has longer maturities than commercial debt,” S & P stated.

    S & P said it believes that the conditions for debt issuance in the year will become less favourable because United States (US) Federal Reserve tapering may make emerging market issuance less attractive. It however noted that frontier markets have fared better than major emerging markets and this trend is likely to continue in the year.

    The S & P’s estimates focus on debt issued by a central government in its own name and exclude local government and social security debt, as well as debt issued by other public bodies and government-guaranteed obligations. This means, for example, that in Nigeria’s case, S & P did not include the issuance of Nigeria’s Asset Management Company (AMCON) to Nigeria’s borrowing figures. In terms of commercial debt instruments, S & P’s estimates for long-term borrowing include bonds with maturities of more than one year issued either on publicly listed markets or sold as private placements, as well as commercial bank loans.

    “Our estimates are informed by our expectations regarding central government deficits, our assessment of governments’ potential extrabudgetary funding needs, and our estimates of debt maturities in 2014,” the report stated.

    It pointed out that an increasing number of sub-Saharan African sovereigns have begun accessing international debt markets. South Africa has been issuing for many years. In 2007 Ghana and Gabon also issued debt, of $750 billion and $1 billion. Senegal followed in 2009 with $500 million issuance, followed in 2011 by Nigeria, also with $500 million. In 2012, Zambia issued $750 million, while Angola issued a $1 billion structured transaction. The following year, issuance was led by Rwanda with a debut Eurobond of $400 million, followed by Ghana ($1 billion, including a $250 million buyback), Nigeria ($1 billion), and Gabon ($1.5billion). Of the sub-Saharan African sovereigns not rated by Standard & Poor’s, Namibia issued $500 million in 2011 and Tanzania issued $600 million in early 2013. This year, it expects that Kenya will lead issuance, with a $1.0$1.5 billion bond, possibly followed by Ghana with an issue between $750 million and $1 billion.

  • PHOTO: Jonathan in Congo

    PHOTO: Jonathan in Congo

  • Jonathan inaugurates Advisory Committee on NIRP

    Jonathan inaugurates Advisory Committee on NIRP

    • Over 100m Nigerians to go above poverty line

    President Goodluck Jonathan, yesterday, inaugurated the President Advisory Committee (PAC) on the implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP).

    Speaking at the event, the president said the NIRP PAC is expected to, among other things, discuss the quarterly progress of the NIRP and provide feedback and advice on how to maximise the programme’s impact.

    He said the Committee will also provide input into the NIRP work plan for subsequent quarters, and  bring international perspective on industrialisation based on the experiences of other countries.

    He said the members will also serve as ambassadors to the larger private sector and the international community, adding that Nigeria is on the path of economic reform and industrialisation.

    Jonathan also noted that members were carefully selected from strategic sectors of the  economy, adding that the NIRP would fast-track the nation’s march towards industrialisation.

    The Committee, which comprises mainly representatives from strategic Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of the government, as well as leading private sector industrialists, will be chaired by the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Olusegun Aganga, with foremost industrialist and Africa’s richest man Alhaji Aliko Dangote, serving as Alternate Chairman.

    Other PAC members from the public sector include the Minister of State for Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr.Samuel Ortom; Minister of Works, Mike Onolemenmen; Minister of Power, Prof. Chinedu Nebo and his Transport counterpart,  Idris Umar, as well as  the Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr. Sarah Alade.

    The private sector representatives include the President, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Chief Kola Jamodu,Chairman, Honeywell Group, Oba Otudeko; President, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Alhaji Mohammed Abubarkar and the Nigeria Country Head of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), Dr. Patrick Kormawa, among others.

    The President reffered to  members of the Committee as “our best minds and the most dauntless investors in Nigeria’s Industrial sector,” saying they represent the best of the Nigerian Industry.

    He said they have been carefully selected across strategic industrial sectors of the NIRP, including cement, basic steel, cocoa processing, petrochemicals, textiles, foods and beverages, among others.

    He explained that the selection also ensured adequate national coverage, North, South, East, West, and International; and we have representation from key stakeholder groups.

    He said” “I am emboldened by the achievements we have already recorded while implementing parts of the NIRP over the last three years.

    “The NIRP is a journey Nigeria must undertake. I am confident that this plan will industrialise our great country and that it will create the jobs and wealth. We can, and we must Industrialise Nigeria. No country has become rich by only producing and exporting its raw materials. This is an economic policy that leads nowhere.”

    He said NIRP is aimed at building a strong manufacturing base and to lift more than 100 millions Nigerians out of poverty.

    The 25-man Presidential Committee, chaired by the Minister of Trade and Investment, Dr Olusegun Aganga and alternate Chairman, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has majority of its members from the private sector.

    According to the President, Nigeria is taking after China with the introduction of NIRP, which he claimed has successfully transformed to a global player through industrialisation.

    He said: “China has effectively through its industrial and manufacturing sector becomes the largest economy in the world. Nigeria can also do the same not necessarily be the largest economy in the world but our target is to be among the top 20.”

    “From the information I gathered, manufacturing and services in China has lifted over 500 million people out of poverty. With industrialisation, at least we can lift less than 200 million people out of poverty.”

    With half a trillion dollar economy, which is the largest in Africa and the 9th largest workforce in the world, he said that Nigeria possesses the entrepreneurial spirit.

    He stressed that the Industrialisation Revolution Plan is the agenda of the government to achieving the goal.

    “If China can do it I believe we can also do it. To accomplish this however, we must do things differently; we must begin to add value to our resources through research development. We must industrialise.” He added

  • Jonathan and Chibok: the nonsense about conspiracy theories

    Jonathan and Chibok: the nonsense about conspiracy theories

    Touched by massive and unalloyed support from more than five powerful nations, President Goodluck Jonathan has at last found his voice on the Chibok abductions. Addressing the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Abuja on Thursday, the president declared that Boko Haram terrorism was in its last gasp. His latest hyperbole stands in stark contrast to his waffling and dithering at the height of the Chibok saga between mid-April and first week of May, when he, his wife and PDP women leader Kema Chikwe characteristically insinuated that the abductions, if they took place, were more of politics than reality. The president had pleaded for victims’ parents to cooperate with him, while his meddlesome wife and Mrs Chikwe suggested incredulously that there was probably no abduction anywhere.

    It seems now that Dr Jonathan is finally persuaded that hundreds of schoolgirls were indeed abducted, even if he is uncertain of their number, and he is upbeat that given the magnitude of international support, the girls will be rescued and Boko Haram will be vanquished. World support has also seemed to galvanise Dr Jonathan’s men. The National Security Adviser, the Chief of Defence Staff and other security chiefs have visited Chibok, as they put it, on a fact-finding tour of the affected town. Perhaps they were accompanied by senior military commanders who in all the weeks the abductions struggled to arrest world attention failed to visit the scene of tragedy. Many more officials will probably be visiting the town in the coming days, in a sort of tragicomic tourism. Maybe, too, Dame Patience, who had threatened to march on Borno State Government House, will find the good grace to visit that state, if indeed her doubts have been finally dispelled. Then to cap a spectacular volte face, perhaps the immovable and often imperturbable Dr Jonathan will find the nobility to visit the afflicted parents of the victims.

    With the acceptance of responsibility for the mass kidnap by Boko Haram, and given massive international support for Nigeria and the increasing number of grieving parents who have been interviewed by the press, it is likely that there will no longer be any debate as to the veracity of the abductions. From all indications, the debate may be moving towards a more sinister direction, one probably encouraged by the dithering Jonathan presidency and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The new suggestion is that Boko Haram terrorism, not to say the abductions in particular, is a ploy by the North to pressure Dr Jonathan to abandon his re-election plan. This shocking argument is further divided into two areas: first is that the North, loosely defined, believes the presidency is its birthright and is therefore loathed to staying out of power for too long; and second is that there really is a subterranean religious agenda undergirding Boko Haram with the intent to annihilate other religions and helped the North promote Islam nationally.

    Sadly, the Jonathan government has recklessly exploited these arguments and fears by adducing facts to corroborate the notion of northern and religious dominance. Only a few days ago, the Southern Nigeria Peoples Assembly (SNPA), an amorphous group purporting to represent the South as a whole, underscored these fears by affirming its opposition to a government produced by what it described as the dynamics of insurgency and blackmail. The group boasts members like former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, represented by Dozie Ikedife, Edwin Clark, an elder statesman, and Bolanle Gbonigi, a retired bishop of the Anglican Church. The group was in other words saying that Dr Jonathan was being pressured to either abjure re-election or, if he goes ahead to contest, lose on account of his failure to curb the insurgency. A former minister from the South-South zone, Alabo Tonye Graham-Douglas, also identified with this trenchant and rampant falsehood by suggesting that Dr Jonathan was a victim of orchestrated manipulations by shadowy northern forces.

    The SNPA’s conclusion is inelegantly couched in uninterrupted fallacy. It said: “Let it be known that the people of Southern Nigeria shall not allow themselves to be ruled by any government that is a product of insurgency or blackmail if the sponsors of insurgency in this country think they can brow-beat and pummel the government of President Goodluck Jonathan to abdicate the authority and mandate freely given to him by Nigerians to rule this country.” This farcical reasoning is not an aberration. It is rampant even in the supposedly enlightened Southwest, where many have allowed themselves to be seduced by such far-fetched and unfounded ideas about the country’s power dynamics and power equation. In addition, this farcical reasoning forms the overwhelming logic and bedrock of the Jonathan presidency, where officials unable to provide answers to Dr Jonathan’s abysmal failure as president have sought diversionary and emotive explanations both to explain contemporary events and to anticipate and possibly deflect what looks certain to be an electoral disaster.

    It is, therefore, clear that Dr Jonathan rests his present and future political fortunes on the divisive tripod of alleged northern hegemonic machinations manifesting through Boko Haram insurgency, religion, and his ethnic status as a minority. Both he and his supporters downplay, if not excuse, his failures, his lack of charisma, his stark inability to provide leadership in moments of crises, his miscomprehension of the economic and social dynamics engendering crises in the country, his poor judgement and uninformed choices, and his preference for insular, retrogressive and parochial company. Dr Jonathan has often accused his opponents of politicising the insurgency. But he is in fact more disposed than anyone else to evoking politics as an explanation for his lack of a sense of urgency in national affairs. It is not surprising that the world press has dismissed him as a weak and ineffective politician presiding over a massively corrupt government.

    Examined closely, the silly argument that the insurgency is a ploy to weaken and discourage Dr Jonathan does not hold water. If Boko Haram was designed to undermine Dr Jonathan, why was it founded before he assumed the presidency? It is known that the group, which was first described as the Taliban equivalent of the Afghanistan Taliban movement, had its beginnings in the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. It later became virulent under the Umaru Yar’Adua government during which time its former leader, Mohammed Yusuf, was extra-judicially murdered by policemen. Not only was it clear that the last two governments misunderstood the sect, they also underestimated the social, economic and religious forces that drove it into extremity.

    Dr Jonathan cannot also be exculpated from mismanaging the revolt. Apart from his failure in appreciating the threat constituted by the sect to national cohesion and stability, he also vacillated for a long time on whether to fight or mollify the sect. Even when he was encouraged by analysts to declare the sect a terrorist organisation, and foreign governments were prepared to take a lead in that direction, Dr Jonathan led a campaign to dissuade foreign categorisation of the sect as terrorist, while he also tried to pacify the group and describe it as a part of the Nigerian family. He left matters too late until the sect became a fierce ogre. Now he is encouraging the tendentious opinion that Boko Haram is a northern scheme designed to humiliate him as a southerner and Christian, an opinion strangely embraced uncritically by many in the South and elsewhere, an opinion that is sadly gaining foolish currency.

    If indeed Boko Haram is a northern scheme to defeat or undermine Dr Jonathan, is the military also a northern army? Dr Jonathan has twice changed the leadership of the army. On both occasions, he opted for southerners. And since his army commanders and rank and file are not only northerners, why have they not devised brilliant tactics to defeat the sect? Are the factors hindering the army the making of northerners only? The truth is that the military is demoralised, and its equipment, sometimes in quality, and at other times in volume, do not match those of the insurgents. As testified by grieving Chibok parents, and contrary to what the military would have the people believe, when the insurgents raided Chibok, the army was forewarned and the detachment defending the town radioed for help. No help came. Soldiers have also told of tactical inadequacy and corruption in the war efforts, even as Chibok natives confirmed that the military never embarked on hot pursuit of the insurgents after the abductions.

    Blaming intrigues and northern blackmail for Dr Jonathan’s evident inadequacies and poor leadership is an elaborate ruse. While it is true that some politicians might have connived at the insurgency in its early years and even sponsored it, and while religion and ethnicity have become depressing and distortionary factors in Nigerian politics, these do not explain the president’s idiosyncratic failures. And whether the schoolgirls are rescued or not, or whether Dr Jonathan gets a second term or not, nothing will redeem him from his staggering lack of vigour and accomplishment in the face of stirring national challenges. He is one of a few damned by both their successes and failures. Nor will the multinational help he is receiving rescue his presidency from total failure or even imbue it with the right mix of policies required to rebuild Nigeria and make it a great nation. If they are capable of it, Nigerians must assess the Jonathan presidency more scrupulously than ethnic and religious jingoists have done. If in spite of themselves they manage to do that, Nigerians will uncover unsightly evidence that would lead them to punish this failed government severely in the 2015 polls. But if they don’t, the consequences will be inescapable and dire.

  • The real terror of Chibok

    The real terror of Chibok

    Today, world attention is riveted on Nigeria for all the wrong reasons. As you read this 276 girls snatched by Boko Haram insurgents from their dormitory beds in a government secondary school in Chibok, Borno State remain in captivity.

    Their kidnapping has triggered a string of protests from women and civil society groups across the country. It has produced the usual promises of deliverance from President Goodluck Jonathan. The military high command have weighed in with assurances that they were doing everything to set the captives free.

    But neither the demonstrators’ outrage nor the threadbare platitudes of government officials have brought the prospect of freedom any closer for the unfortunate girls.

    Reports say three of the girls may have died, while some others are in very poor health. No one really knows what is happening to the rest. Once upon a time we would have been stunned by reports of 20 people killed in a single terror attack. These days not even the killing of hundreds causes us or our leaders to pause in shock.

    That is why the Chibok kidnapping represents something of a watershed in Nigeria’s dark hour. It has galvanised the country in ways that huge body counts and gory pictures have failed to do. This is no longer about North or South, Muslim or Christian – it is about a shared humanity. Imagine if one of these hapless teenagers was your daughter?

    Chibok is a sad chapter, but it is also a metaphor about present day Nigeria. For starters, it speaks about a country where confusion reigns. For close to two weeks we have been working with the assumption that 234 girls were missing. Now, Borno State Police Commissioner, Tanko Lawan, says well over 300 were actually spirited away on the night of April 14, 2014. Of that number 53 managed to escape – leaving as many as 276 in captivity.

    In the early days after the abduction, the picture of confusion was best captured by the fiasco that saw the military claiming that the bulk of the girls had been rescued. They were forced to retract after the principal of the school attacked by the insurgents spoke up.

    The ordeal of the Chibok girls underlines the embarrassing helplessness of a country the size of Nigeria. So far, everything that has been thrown at the insurgents militarily has only had limited effect. In the days and weeks after President Jonathan declared a state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, a bombing campaign that targeted the militants’ camps in the Sambisa forest seemed to have broken their spine. Now we know better.

    Even the prospect of a special operation to rescue the girls cannot proceed for fear that they have been converted into human shields by their captors in anticipation of an attempt to free them militarily.

    As recent as two years ago administration officials were still arguing at the US State Department that Boko Haram was a Nigerian phenomenon that could be brought to heel using local solutions. Increasingly there is talk of getting foreign assistance to secure the release of the girls. This would suggest that the administration is finally admitting it lacks that capacity to prosecute this special fight.

    We are coming to that realisation five years after it became evident that we had a serious problem on our hands. In that time we could have built our capacity to fight the terrorists more effectively. Rather than do that we were seduced by the delusion that we could sweet talk a maniacal band of killers who had made it clear over and again they had no interest in talking to a government they regarded as illegitimate.

    Even if the limited Boko Haram of 2009 had not transformed into today’s full-blown insurgency, we had sufficient warnings that because of her endowments, her strategy place in Africa and the world, Nigeria would become a prime target for jihadi groups that were already active in the Maghreb.

    That should have informed a change in our defence and security planning and expenditure. There is no evidence to show a shift from the conventional. At a time when terrorists are using cells of a few people to inflict massive damage on cities and communities, we are still stuck in the thinking that just driving tanks into the Sambisa will be enough to solve the problem.

    For me the real worry is whether the nightmare will end in Chibok. Once terrorists conceive of some evil, they will seek ways to actualise it. They have shown that their preferred targets are vulnerable places like Chibok and Nyanya. Just thinking of other potential Chiboks is terrifying. What is our contingency plan?

    The abduction drama should not stop us from thinking about preventing a repeat. The territory over which the terrorists operate is wide and hard to police. How do we guarantee that similarly vulnerable schools are not visited with such terror again?

    Posting solitary military guards to watch over the institutions is a non-starter because they can be easily overwhelmed by the terrorists who operate in large numbers. We don’t have enough soldiers in the Nigerian Army to post platoons to protect every secondary school in the North East. In any event what sort of learning environment would that be with soldiers all around?

    The key is to take out the terrorists before they can organise and launch their operations using better intelligence and technology. The repeat bombing of Nyanya, Abuja less than two weeks after an earlier attack that killed close to 100 people is confirmation that for as long as the perpetrators walk free these crimes will continue.

    Nigeria needs help with intelligence and know-how. For all of the size of our conventional military we still don’t have the capacity and expertise to contain the terrorist campaign being waged by Boko Haram. We need help and must swallow our pride to get it.

    It may even mean signing a pact with the United States to allow its drones to target these terrorists. The advanced intelligence assets that such an arrangement would provide will enable us strike hard at the killers where we can’t presently reach. Sure, the drone policy has its flaws and has taken out many innocents; still it has proven its potency from Yemen, to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    Such drastic steps need to be taken on the military front while we are thrashing around for more permanent solutions. But let there be no doubt that the help we need now is from countries with proven experience and success in containing terrorists.

  • A tale of two empathisers

    A tale of two empathisers

    President Jonathan and Gov Shettima’s reactions to recent national tragedies as case study

    President Goodluck Jonathan would appear to have left undone what he ought to have done, only to do what he ought not to have done immediately after the Nyanya bomb blasts of April 14 in which, officially, 75 people were reported killed (unofficial sources quoted over 200), and 170 injured, some critically; and the abduction of 234 students of Government Girls Secondary School, Chibok, Borno State, in the night of the same day. These were serious developments that should have put not just the government but the entire nation in a somber mood in societies where human lives are valued.

    But not here. President Jonathan travelled to Kano the day after the bomb blasts, and a few hours after the abductions, to attend a political rally. Mr Labaran Maku, information minister, was to stoutly defend the president’s trip and also restate the usual government’s assurance (that assures no one). He said many things, including the usual belated closing of the door after the horse has bolted. “We will make it very difficult for people with bad intensions to penetrate our parks. Certainly, we are going to bring bomb detectors and we are going (emphasis mine) to work with our security to guide us on how to make our schools, parks, markets and other public places safe for our people,” he said. In our five years of fighting the insurgents, is it just occurring to the government that these public places must be protected?

    Mr. Maku said the President has directed the FCT Minister to begin surveillance and provision of security around the Nigerian capital, Abuja. How come it is now that they are to begin these, in spite of the fact that Abuja had been attacked again and again by Boko Haram? What happened to the CCTVs in the city? Obviously Mr. Maku himself must have lost count of the number of times he had made similar statements and given similar assurances on behalf of the government since he became information minister.

    Perhaps the worst of it all was his statement that President Jonathan made the Kano trip to drum it to the numbskulls that they (terrorists) cannot paralyse the government, whatever they do. Hear Maku: “I think going to Kano was a statement, a loud statement that terrorism will not stop the administration of this country”. Nothing could be more harebrained. It was the kind of defence that worsens matters when silence would have been golden.

    Not only did President Jonathan go to Kano, he danced at the rally with many of his party’s supporters. Could they have been dancing on the graves of the Nyanya victims? Or could they have been thrilled that some 234 innocent girls had been abducted by Boko Haram members? What could have warranted such celebratory mood? Someone who “has suffered psychologically as a result of this criminality,” as Mr Maku wanted us to believe, could not have been in a dancing mood barely a few hours after these horrible incidents. Mr. Maku himself said journalists used some gory pictures of the bombing which I am sure the president saw. How come he still found the feet to dance after seeing such pictures, if indeed they were gory, and if indeed he was not insensitive?

    Even the British High Commissioner to Nigeria, Dr Andrew Pocock, donated blood for the Nyanya victims, a thing that the minister of state for health said was a major challenge. If the president was as touched by the incidents as Mr. Maku said, could he not have made blood donation or something relevant a major aspect of his Kano rally, instead of launching an attack on the state governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, over campaign funds that he accused the governor of misappropriating? If the rally was so sacrosanct that it could not be postponed so that Ibrahim Shekarau, a former governor of Kano State that the president went to receive into the ruling party would not change his mind, there were better ways of empathising with the relatives of the dead as well as the parents of the hapless girls.

    Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima gave an example of this when he said: “I have seen very serious moments since I became governor of Borno State in 2011 at a period of insurgent crisis. I have seen many innocent lives lost for no reason and I mourn every life lost with empathy and high sense of responsibility. But the last one week has been my worst days as a governor and even the worst in my life. I am troubled as a father, as a leader and as a politician”.

    Shettima is not done yet, “ First, as a father, any time my young daughter comes around me in the last one week at the Government House, my heart beats very fast, my heart becomes so heavy and I develop serious headache when I look into the eyes of my young daughter, I wonder how the parents of those students feel when faced with the harsh reality that their daughters are either in the hands of abductors in fear and desperation for freedom, or wandering somewhere looking for safety while parents do not know the status of their children”. This sums it up.

    Someone who sees his daughter and remembers the reality that some other girls probably her age are out there in the hands of people that cannot be trusted can never find the time to dance so soon; it is just not possible. The talk about not grinding governance to a halt is rubbish. Is it by receiving a former governor into the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that you prove to insurgents that they cannot stop government business? Couldn’t Shekarau have been received by the party’s chairman? Why the president who was supposed to be the chief mourner then? Even Mr. Maku that was defending the indefensible could not have found that same excuse pleasant if his daughter was among those abducted. I do not need to ask him the question the typical Hausa man would ask on whether one has experienced something before if it is true that it is only someone who had experienced it that would know how it feels.

    Governor Shetima said it all when he added that “I took a sympathetic note of one particular parent who reportedly said he preferred seeing his daughter’s body to the trauma of having her abducted”. Did this occur to Mr. Maku that it is the height of lack of faith in the system that would make a parent come to this sort of conclusion? It was for the same reason that the parents of the abducted girls had to go to the forest in search of their loved ones themselves. Dance will be a luxury that these parents cannot afford at this point in time; so, for the government to tell them that the president travelled for a political rally barely hours after their daughters were abducted to prove a point would only further alienate the parents from the government and reduce their faith in the country. “I pledge to Nigeria my country” is at this point so meaningless to them because it is not just a question of what they can do for Nigeria but also a question of what Nigeria can do for them. The same applies to the relatives of the victims of Nyanya blasts.

    We seriously have to be wary of those advising the president; these goofs are just too many and too frequent. It is important to probe whether they are not the Boko Haram within that the president himself spoke of sometime ago because the quality of their advice is suspect. One is not suggesting that President Jonathan should engage the services of professional criers to weep over these sad developments before we will know that he is worried. But there are by far better ways to mourn the dead in the Nyanya bomb blasts in a way that it would not look like one is dancing on their graves. And, as for the abducted girls, I leave you with the words of Dr Nze Anizort:”Just imagining the horrors those children will be passing through is enough to send shivers down one’s spine. But all we can do is to imagine it; the girls will be living it.”

  • 2015: North Central turns battle ground

    2015: North Central turns battle ground

    Ravaged by unabated ethnic violence, the North Central geo-political zone once considered President Goodluck Jonathan’s biggest hopes of capturing northern votes come 2015, based on religious and political antecedents, has suddenly become very tricky and dicey with the opposition fracturing the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) strongholds, reports Sunday Oguntola

    It should be a fait accompli. With four incumbent governors out of a possible six and a fourth-term Senate President in its kitty, the re-election bid of President Goodluck Jonathan come 2015 should be a resounding success in the North Central. In the entire North, it is the region that boasts of the fiercest support base and foot soldiers for the President’s re-election campaign. It has traditionally been a conservative, establishment region with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) having a smooth ride across the states.

    But these are indeed changing times. The political climate across Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), constituting the North Central zone is evolving with dire consequences for the President’s chances of carrying the region. A series of high-powered defections, internal wrangling, communal crises, general disenchantments and strategic penetrations by the opposition are conspiring to sweep the carpets off the feet of the president and his foot soldiers.

    Key political realignments and the influences of heavyweights have also dimmed the President’s chances in the bastion of the PDP. From Kwara to Kogi, Benue to Niger and Nasarawa State, the PDP’s firm grips on the region are crumbling, fuelling concerns over the number of votes the President can garner at the poll.

    The fact that Governors Jonah Jang (Plateau), Gabriel Suswam (Benue) and Muazu Aliyu (Niger) are second-termers who might be unable to superintend during the presidential polls would also further dwindle the votes Jonathan can secure from their states. The three governors are eyeing senatorial seats and will be fighting the political battles of their lives on the same day with the President.

    A political analyst, James Ibe, said the governors would be so pre-occupied with their senatorial ambitions that they would have no time to deliver critical votes to the President. Ibe said: “It’s a fact that when you are up against formidable oppositions, you consider your interests first before helping your friends and allies. If you have a senatorial election on the same day as the President, it is just logical that you will be more committed to securing your future first before looking out for the President, regardless of how friendly you are with him.”

    According to the election time table released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Presidential and National Assembly polls hold on February 14, 2015. Of the other three governors in the region, Idris Wada (Kogi), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Umaru Almakura (Nasarawa), only Wada is in the PDP. Ahmed and Almakura belong to the All Progressive Congress (APC) and will be motivated to deliver their states to the party at the presidential polls to guarantee their second term bids.

    Kwara State

    This is the state that will give the President’s re-election bid the fiercest opposition. The political leader of Kwara State, Senator Bukola Saraki, has dumped PDP for the APC with his political structures. The governor followed suit, taking nearly all the Assembly members along. It is said that Saraki has a personal score to settle with Jonathan, who has been unrelenting on his assaults against the former governor.

    At a recent rally in Ilorin, the capital city, Jonathan vowed that the PDP will regain the state. He promised those who defected from the PDP that they will live to regret their actions. When his arrowhead in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya, led members of the Kwara PDP to the Presidential Villa on a thank-you visit, Jonathan reiterated his determination to recapture the state.

    He said: “We remain very grateful and from what we saw that day, I do not think we need a soothsayer to say that Kwara is totally for the PDP. In 2015, we will know who owns Kwara. And if God gives us the opportunity, which I believe, probably we will even test our strength before 2015.

    “All stolen mandates will return to PDP. And those who think they can run away with our mandates, as a member of the Assembly who refused to defect, you will have nothing to regret. Just celebrate it. If they think that PDP will allow them to run away with it, they will see it.

    “We must take over the state structures of the party, the governor and the state Assembly, we must take all, because it is easy to reach the grassroots through the states than the center because the country is so big that by the time we distribute positions, you will not be noticed. But at the state level, we can touch more people”.

    Saraki, on his part, said such dream remains only wishful. According to him, the election in the state will be a walkover for the APC. The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment and Ecology said: “We do not want to give any vote; we want to win the total votes. We want to send a message across Nigeria, we want to send a message to the pretenders that, in Kwara State; we are not seasonal politicians.

    ”For those that still want to learn in history, be rest assured that Kwara is solidly an All Progressives Congress (APC) state. Here, we are one family, here we are committed to delivering the entire Kwara State for the APC family”.

    With the governor following his political leadership and the entire Assembly members and local government chairmen behind him, it is hard to see how Jonathan can boast any significant vote in Kwara come 2015. Among the President’s foot soldiers in Kwara include Senator Simeon Ajibola, Gbemi Saraki, Special Adviser to the President on National Assembly Matters, Suleiman Ajadi and Special Adviser to the President on Ethics, Sarah Jibril.

    Prediction: A landslide defeat for Jonathan

    Benue State

    Home to Senate President, David Mark, Benue State has traditionally been a PDP state. But in 2011, it lost a senatorial seat to the APC along with many House of Representatives seats. The APC has been making spirited efforts to break the PDP’s strongholds in the state with relative successes. But the internal wrangling in the PDP and the hot battles for Suswam’s successor could turn out to work in APC’s favour.

    Former governor and Senate Minority Leader, George Akume, is leading the APC’s army in the state. On the PDP’s side are Suswam, Mark, Lawrence Onoja and the deputy governor, Chief Steven Lawani. In the governorship race, the agitation by the Idoma ethnic group might be the game changer for the APC.  The argument is that with components such as: Jemgbagh, Minda Kwande, Sankera and Jerchira in the Zone A and B districts of the Tiv land, there is no intention to relinquish power in the next dispensation until the last in the Tiv component, the Minda, has taken its turn.

    The issue is tearing the PDP apart with Lawani, one of the main candidates from the Idoma-speaking part of the state said not to be enjoying the support of Suswam for the race. Barrister Emmanuel Jime, a House of Representatives member, is the only candidate for now to have indicated interest in the race under the platform of the APC. Before representing Makurdi/Guma Federal Constituency at the House, he was Speaker of the Assembly.

    A grassroots mobiliser and popular figure, Jime’s scholarship scheme has garnered supports for him in all the three senatorial zones. The fact that he is married to an Idoma woman could also swing votes in his favour, should he win the APC ticket. The APC boasts of many of such political figures across the state, a development that is reducing PDP’s influence.

    But the greatest threat to Jonathan’s victory is the recent Fulani herdsmen invasion in the state. Several communities and villages have been sacked and destroyed by the herdsmen, leading to massive displacement of indigenes. Investigations revealed the displaced indigenes, mostly Christians, have expressed shock over the inability of the Federal Government to come to their rescue.

    A community head, last week, wondered if all they have gained from the current administration is the orgies of violence unleashed against them. “We voted PDP and Jonathan, then we get all these. Yet, nothing is being done. These cattle rustlers are ravaging and ransacking us and no one is doing anything,” he began. “In 2015, we are going to try another party. Maybe they will secure us and give us better security”.

    Such general disenchantments over insecurity are rife in Benue with many considering seeking alternative government. With the seeming inability of the federal government to arrest the insurgency and herdsmen’s attacks with Benue worst hit, the state is becoming an unclear coast for a Jonathan’s victory in 2015. Prediction: 50-50 for Jonathan

    Plateau State

    With a reliable supporter like Jonah Jang, Jonathan is losing no sleep over winning Plateau State. The governor is the recognised Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) by the presidency, a telling testimony to his loyalty. The entire state structure will be Jonathan’s for asking come 2015. Of all the states in the region, Plateau is the most guaranteed for the President. There, he has the strongest supporters, ever loyal and reliable. The Christian inclination of the state is also a big plus for the president’s re-election bid.

    Prediction: Landslide victory for Jonathan

    Nasarawa State

    With two of the three senators belonging to the APC, Nasarawa remains a swing state for the President. The governor has lost his deputy, Dameshi Luka, to the PDP. The House of Assembly is also not entirely in Al Makura’s control. But the APC remains strong in Nasarawa, especially with the arrival of former governor, Abdullahi Adamu. Al Makura is in charge of virtually all the chairmen, swelling the grassroots support of the APC.

    The Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, is leading the president’s men and the PDP’s machinery. Maku is believed to be nursing governorship ambition, which means he will come face-to-face with Al-Makura who will also be seeking second term. He will be a real test for the governor with the federal structure and war chest at its disposal. Jonathan has vowed to recapture Nasarawa come 2015, ostensibly to promote his re-election bid.

    While registering as a member of APC, Abdullahi said: “I want Nigerians to join APC and register. I am calling on them all to be part of the great change to wrest power from the PDP. We are a party out to salvage the country from years of tortuous backwardness. Nigerians should join the change team to defeat President Jonathan in 2015.”

    That defeat for the President in Nasarawa is neither here nor there. Who wins the presidential votes will be largely determined by whoever the APC fields as its presidential aspirant. Should it be a candidate with mass appeal in the north, Jonathan’s votes would be almost nil. But if otherwise, the President could carry the day. It is a swing state where anything can happen.

    Prediction: 50-50 against Jonathan

    Kogi State

    Despite the February 21 Supreme Court judgement, which affirmed his candidature, Kogi State Governor, Idris Wada, is still in the eyes of the storm. The PDP remains divided under his watch with his main challenger for the governorship ticket, Jibril Isah, popularly known as Echocho, seriously embittered. Isah, unfortunately for Wada, has large followership across the state.

    During a reception in his honour after the Supreme Court affirmation, Wada appealed to Isah not to leave the party. He said his victory was a no victor, no vanquished verdict, urging Isah to join him in moving the party forward. Some sources alleged that Isah has resolved to work against the PDP within any election in the state.

    Though the APC has reportedly made overtures to Isah, it was learnt that his men thought it would be better to fight as an insider for now to prove his political mettle and popularity. If he chooses to work with the APC, which boasts of former governor, Abubakar Audu and ex-Reps member, Dino Melaye, Isah will constitute a great impediment to a PDP’s victory in the state come 2015.

    The APC has a senatorial seat in the state and the agitation by the Yoruba-speaking areas for the governorship slot could also work in the party’s favour.  As things are, the state remains difficult to call in terms of where it will go during the presidential race in 2015.

    Prediction: 50-50 in Jonathan’s favour

    Niger State

    The servant-governor, Muazu Aliyu, has publicly declared President Goodluck Jonathan will win the 2015 election. But political observers believe he is simply playing to the gallery. The governor, who was vociferously against the President, is suddenly singing a different tune because he was blackmailed with financial reports by the presidency, many allege.

    Aliyu, who is chairman of the Northern Governors Forum, it was gathered, is simply playing along. When the chips are down, it is believed, he will never move against Northern agitation for power shift. Besides, he is nursing senatorial ambition, a development analysts say, will make him to be careful of moving against the tides.

    The race for his succession is tearing the PDP in the state apart. Some are advocating for rotation while others believe the best candidates should be allowed to emerge.

    By the zoning arrangement of the PDP, the Kontagora zone, aka Zone C should produce the next governor. Zone A (Bida) was in power in 1999- 2007 while Zone B (Minna) will conclude its two four-year terms in 2015.

    Leading contestants include the deputy governor, Hon. Ahmed Ibeto; Commissioner of  Finance, Muazu Bawa; Abubakar Sani Bello (Habu), former Commissioner of Commerce and son of retired Colonel Sani Bello and son-in-law of former head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar; PDP state secretary, Aminu Yusuf and former Minister of Commerce, Engineer Mustapha Bello.

    Of the lot, Bello seems to be enjoying the support of key godfathers in the state though it was alleged the governor is against his choice. Bello has moved to the APC over a spat with the governor on policy matters. He is from Kontagora where the rotational policy favours. He has connections in high places with General Ibrahim Babangida, his late father’s course mate said to be rooting for him. Former FCT Minister, General Gado Nasko, is also there for him.

    Should the PDP pick an aspirant from outside the Kontagora’s favoured zone, the coast might just be clear for Bello to emerge the next governor of the state. This will be more so if he goes for a running mate from Bida, which has the most voting numbers.

    With Aliyu preoccupied with winning a seat to the Senate, like his many colleagues, the state might just go to the opposition for the first time in its history. The disposition of the two Heads of State, Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, who are believed to be unimpressed by Jonathan’s performances, will also certainly affect the President’s chances.

    Prediction: 70-30 against Jonathan

  • 2015: Jonathan’s re-election bid splits South-East leaders

    2015: Jonathan’s re-election bid splits South-East leaders

    Re-election bid of President Goodluck Jonathan is deepening the division among political leaders and elites of the South-East geo-political zone, reports Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan

    Ahead of 2015 general election, the alleged re-election bid of President Goodluck Jonathan is deepening the division amongst political leaders and elites of the South-East geo-political zone. Following indications that the president who received massive support from the zone in the last presidential election, is seeking another term in office, leaders of the zone have been unable to agree on either to produce a presidential candidate who will be from the region or still put their weight behind Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

    Sources within the zone said determined to retain his support base in the region, the President has embarked on underground mobilisation to seek the support of prominent leaders and elites in the zone. According to findings by The Nation, it is the efforts of this underground campaign train, made up of PDP chieftains and other loyalists of the President that have divided the rank and file of Igbo leaders.

    While the Governors’ Forum of the region is in crisis following what sources described as an attempt by some loyalists of the President to get the body to officially endorse his re-election bid, observers of the politics of the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the apex pan Igbo organisation in the region, said the pro-Jonathan campaign train has infiltrated the leadership of the Igbo socio-cultural organisation and polarised its ranks.

    Also sources within the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) says the lingering leadership tussle in the pro-Igbo party is a fallout of effort by Jonathan’s men to sell his re-election bid to the people of the South-East at all cost. Like Ohanaeze, the party’s leadership is said to have been infiltrated and polarised.

    “The unending disagreement between Chief Victor Umeh, the National Chairman of the party and former Governor Peter Obi’s faction would have been resolved if not for their alleged differences on the issue of Jonathan’s 2015 presidential bid. While Umeh wants a free party that will field its own candidates, Obi is committed to Jonathan’s re-election bid,” our source said.

    Signs that the division in the region may be deepening emerged shortly before the last visit of the President to the zone when according to sources, governors of the region disagreed sharply over an attempt to make the Governors’ Forum announce its endorsement of Jonathan’s re-election bid during the visits.

    Sources said the South-East Governors Forum was divided along party lines when some governors suggested that the forum should officially endorse the president’s ambition. Several meetings called to discuss the issue reportedly ended in stalemates as some governors vehemently opposed the idea.

    The last of such meeting, held in Enugu few days before the April 11, 2014 presidential visit, was boycotted by two governors while one other governor left the venue before the end of the meeting, which according to sources, witnessed heated arguments over the plot to get the forum to endorse Jonathan.

    “The meeting ended the same way like the others before it although the Imo State Governor, Chief Rochas Okorocha, boycotted the meeting and Governor Willie Obiano of Anambra State left before the end of the meeting. In spite of all their efforts, the pro-Jonathan governors could not get the forum to officially endorse the President’s re-election bid. Even one PDP governor kicked against the idea.

    “Eventually, they hurriedly conveyed a PDP governors’ meeting where they announced the endorsement of the President’s re-election ambition. The development has finally polarised the Forum and it is uncertain if the gulf created will ever heal because the likes of Governor Okorocha seems to be viewing the forum cautiously ever since,” a source said.

    The situation within the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, sources say, is not better off. “The Ohaneze Ndigbo may not survive the current crisis over Jonathan’s ambition. You will recall the fierce battle for the leadership of the organisation that culminated into several court cases and disputed elections before we finally managed to get the current leadership into office.

    “One thing that is obvious now is the fact that those crises were all about 2015. Now, Ohanaeze is finding it difficult to speak with one voice. While the leadership is saying Ndigbo will support Jonathan, some of our revered founding fathers are saying the man should not run. What we have on our hands now is a situation where our leaders are singing discordant tunes on the issue of Jonathan’s re-election bid,” Ralph Obidike, an ex-officio member of the body in Imo State told The Nation.

    Recently, the Ohanaeze Ndigbo told constitutional lawyer, Professor Ben Nwabueze, (SAN), and Imo State governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha, in plain language that they were not qualified to speak for Ndigbo on any issue. The duo got into trouble with the organisation when they expressed their opposition to Jonathan’s re-election bid.

    Addressing reporters in Awka, Anambra State, President of Ohanaeze, Dr. Chris Eluemunoh, described the two Igbo sons as selfish persons, adding that they had no locus to claim being Igbo leaders. According to him, both Okorocha and Nwabueze have been making utterances that created the impression that there was disunity in Ohanaeze when there was none.

    He accused Nwabueze of printing leaflets and pamphlets aimed at discrediting the apex Igbo body in recent times which, he observed, was not expected from such a highly reputed legal luminary.

    The face-off, The Nation learnt, is fallout of lingering disagreement over how the Igbos should view Jonathan’s 2015 ambition. The leadership of the Ohanaeze recently said the region will once again support the ambition of the President to rule the country beyond 2015. There were even reports that the Ohanaeze Ndigbo had endorsed Jonathan during the annual Igbo Day Celebration in Enugu State last year.

    But Nwabueze had reportedly said Jonathan must shun the urge to seek re-election in 2015 and concentrate on his transformation agenda. The legal icon insisted that it was practically impossible for the President to combine efforts aimed at national transformation with contesting election. He said although the President was eligible to contest in 2015, he could become an instant national hero if he summoned enough courage not to do so.

    “I still believe that the problem of this country is national transformation; that you cannot combine national transformation with contesting election. The two are so different because once you get involved in electioneering, you undermine your authority to lead the nation for national transformation and I said if I were the President, I would restrict myself to serving the nation, transforming this country and creating a new Nigeria. These would be my concern and I would go down in history as a hero.

    “So, if Mr. President does that, he would become an instant hero in this country; but it is for him to choose. If I were him, I would choose to become a hero to lead the country into transformation and abandon the ambition of a second term. That is what I said and I still stand by it and that is what I would do if I were the President of this country, but unfortunately, I’m not,” he said.

    Also the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the South-East warned Ohanaeze Ndigbo not to allow itself to be dragged into partisan politics ahead of the 2015 general election. In a statement by a chieftain of the party, Mr. Osita Okechukwu, the APC said the South-East was yet to get a quarter of the campaign promises made to them by President Jonathan.

    “We salute the President-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Gary Igariwey, his cabinet, Ime-Obi and the entire members of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, home and abroad, for this time putting on the most-needed thinking-cap and strategising on how best to advance the collective interest of over 40 million Igbos.

    “We recall with regrets how the former leadership of Ohanaeze Ndigbo hurriedly endorsed President Goodluck Jonathan before the 2011 presidential election without due strategic plan or negotiation.

    “The outcome is the erroneous impression, where other zones assumed that Ebele Azikiwe is Igbo candidate; yet one quarter of President Jonathan’s campaign promises to the South-East is yet to be actualised.

    “APC South-East would candidly propose that Ohanaeze Ndigbo, as we approach the 2015 general election, should harvest the opportunity provided by the emergence of two dominant political parties – APC and PDP – hence negotiate with both before casting their net.

    “In summary, Ohanaeze Ndigbo should be guided by the old adage of our ancestors which posits that, if the first route is beneficial, we pass through the route again and if not we take the alternate route,” the APC said.

    Similarly, the United Progressives Party, UPP, and the Igbo World Assembly, IWA, were recently sharply divided over the same issue. The two groups canvassed different views at the last World Igbo Congress held at the Crystal Palace Hotel, Enugu.

    While the IWA, a group of Ndigbo outside Nigeria, expressed belief that Igbos should not contest in 2015 if Jonathan indicated interest, National chairman of UPP, Chief Chekwas Okorie, insisted that whether Jonathan indicated interest or not, Igbos must contest for president in 2015.

    In his speech at the occasion, the chairman of IWA, Dr. Nwachukwu Anakwenze, stated that Ndi Igbo must be ready to win the presidency in 2019, giving room for Jonathan’s interest in 2015 rather than wait to be handed the exalted position by those that always use Ndi Igbo as pawn in a chess game. He said it was shameful that even zones with less human and capital endowments are now laughing at the political ambition of Ndigbo.

    But the UPP National Chairman, who received an award from IWA at the occasion, said it was unfortunate that prominent Igbo leaders had continued to postpone the actualisation of Igbo Presidency in Nigeria. He therefore promised that UPP would be a platform that would give Ndigbo the opportunity to actualise a president of Igbo extraction.

     

  • A short history of Nigerian terror, by PDP

    A short history of Nigerian terror, by PDP

    A politician’s grief is often very brief – especially when he or his kin are not on the receiving end of some tragic happening. When they make their public shows of empathy, it is often with an eye on the photo opportunity or to pre-empt any criticism about being unfeeling.

    But this week Nigeria’s apex leadership outdid itself. What President Goodluck Jonathan did in scurrying to Kano to preside over a reception for defecting ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau barely 24 hours after 80 innocent Nigerians were blown to smithereens by terrorist bombs at Abuja’s Nyanya motor park is beyond the pale.

    We are talking of 80 souls, for God’s sake, blown away in one moment of madness in the nation’s capital! How does the president react? One photo-opportunity at the bedside of a victim and quick as a flash he’s off to Kano for a bout of singing and dancing.

    Politicians must truly be remarkable people who can switch from one emotion to another the way we turn light bulbs on and off. It just shows how desensitised we have become and what low stock we now set by human lives that rather than accept that he had made a mistake, the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) spokesman, Olisah Metuh, launched into an inane defence of the shameful outing.

    In search of rationalisation, he embarked on time travel – landing in 1984 where he pounced on the fact that the then British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, continued with the Tory Party conference in Brighton after a terrorist attack that killed five.

    What he did not tell us was whether Britain was under the kind of siege that has seen hundreds of people blown to bits by bombs in Nigerian villages and towns every week. It is always convenient to throw such isolated examples.

    The PDP spokesman should tell us how the leadership of Norway reacted in 2011 when a gunman killed 77 young people on the island of Utoya. Aside other actions, the nation declared 30 days of mourning. That was just one incident! Here such things happen every other day and we react by going dancing.

    No one is saying the government should shut down – because that would be impractical and pointless. But we have to show that we value human life and respect our people; and that as leaders our actions are not driven only by naked ambition and lust for power. In any event, the Kano excursion had nothing to do with governance: it was purely partisan politics – an occasion for Jonathan to inveigh against his arch foe, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.

    While we were still digesting this, the nation woke up to the shocking news that barely 24 hours after that brutal Nyanya attack, Boko Haram insurgents invaded an isolated secondary school in Borno and abducted over 100 girls.

    These days barely a week goes by without one such outrage or another. Leaders who respect their people would understand that these are not ordinary times and keep a low profile – especially when they cannot provide solutions to the evil ravaging the land.

    Instead we continue to be assaulted by the arrogant and illogical statements from the likes of the PDP’s National Publicity Secretary, Olisah Metuh. In his latest offering he accused the All Progressives Congress (APC) leadership, governors – even Rotimi Amaechi of being the sponsors of Boko Haram. Others whom he has identified as being the founders and financiers of the sect include former Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari and suspended Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.

    It is only in frontier territory that this sort of outrage can happen. You impugn people’s character in such a manner in the name of politics! Buhari has threatened to go to court if he doesn’t get an apology within seven days. Hopefully, Metuh and the PDP would be inundating the courts with proof soon.

    The volatile partisan air that has overtaken the land cannot obliterate historical facts. Credible chronicles have been written tracing the emergence of what is now known as Boko Haram to the influences of the defunct radical Islamist group Maitatsine which flowered in parts of northern Nigeria in the 80s and was eventually wiped out in the early 1990s.

    The present incarnation of the sect emerged from a radical group that met at the Ndimi Mosque in Maiduguri around 2002. They were led by the sect founder, Mohammed Ali, and were implacably opposed to the government of the then Borno State Governor, Mala Kachalla, who they viewed as irredeemably corrupt. Ali would later extend his activities to the Kanama community in Yobe State where he met his end in 2003 after clashes with the police and army.

    It was the survivors of this battle who regrouped in the Ndimi mosque under the leadership of Mohammed Yusuf. Up until the clash between sect members and the administration of the then Borno State Governor, Ali Modu Sheriff, in February 2009 over the use of helmets by motor cycle riders, they remained largely a local phenomenon.

    But in July 2009, the sect would have a pivotal run-in with law the enforcement agents who stopped a procession of the group on their way to bury a prominent member of the sect. The clashes from that one incident snowballed into a massive orgy of burning and looting across Bauchi, Borno and Yobe States.

    In the process, several policemen were killed. The intervention of the military brought the situation in Maiduguri under control and led to Yusuf being apprehended. Unfortunately, after soldiers handed him over he would be killed by extra-judicial means whilst in police custody. From that point on the thirst for revenge against federal government led by then President Umaru YarÁdua seemed to imbue the sect with a new zeal for mayhem that very few would have predicted.

    As Nigerians thrashed around looking for explanations for the enduring power of the sect, many recalled a pregnant statement made in the heat of the 2011 PDP residential contest. So much has been made of the statements by Alhaji Lawal Kaita to the effect that the North would make Nigeria ungovernable if the PDP forced Jonathan down their throat as presidential candidate in 2011.

    Metuh has also referred to comments made at the party’s convention that year by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to the effect that those who make peaceful change impossible make violence change inevitable.

    These statements are now the lazy and convenient explanations for the scourge of terror sweeping the land. Unfortunately, these things don’t add up. Anyone who has followed the rise of Boko Haram and the emergence of its leaders like Yusuf and Abubakar Shekau would know that mainstream northern politicians had very little influence or contact with the group.

    If anything, the sect’s leaders had only contempt for them. We seem to forget that it is this same sect that has threatened to kill everyone from the Sultan of Sokoto to former President Ibrahim Babangida, Buhari and others. A few days ago, they killed a monarch who dared complain about their activities.

    Indeed, if anybody should be accused of being the driving forces behind the Boko Haram, it is those from within the ruling party. We have the weighty testimony of a President Jonathan to that effect! Speaking during an inter-denominational service to mark the 2012 Armed Forces Remembrance Day, he shocked the world by claiming that the sect had infiltrated his government.

    “Some of them are in the executive arm of government; some of them are in the parliamentary/legislative arm of government while some of them are even in the judiciary.

    “Some are also in the armed forces, the police and other security agencies. Some continue to dip their hands and eat with you and you won’t even know the person who will point a gun at you or plant a bomb behind your house.”

    Before it became fashionable to accuse the APC of terrorism, this same administration fought attempts in 2012 by the United States government to declare Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO). The excuse? Such designation cause travelling inconveniences for Nigerians at foreign airports. The administration also argued that it was capable of resolving the problem with its own local solutions and didn’t need the American action.

    Fast forward to 2013 when the US went ahead anyway and labelled Boko Haram an FTO. Without any sense of shame, the same government that was so keen to give comfort to the sect it claimed to be talking to, tripped over itself to welcome the move.

    A couple of weeks ago, President Jonathan told an African Union Conference of Ministers of Finance, Economic and Planning in Abuja, that terrorists  like Boko Haram and others who had access to very expensive weapons were clearly receiving external support.

    All of this flies in the face of the partisan charges being levelled against the opposition. If indeed the government and PDP know what they claim, then it is a mystery that decisive action is yet to be taken. A government that has all this information about the ‘terrorist’ activities of opposition leaders and has not apprehended and prosecuted them, can only be described as a joke.

    But then, recent Nigerian history is replete with such antics. It was standard practice under the regime of the late General Sani Abacha to accuse every opponent or critic of the junta of coup-plotting. Many were jailed for participating in phantom coups that existed only in the imagination of the dictator’s goons.

    The antics and utterances of the PDP and the government show that they still don’t grasp the gravity of the insurgency. If Jonathan and his men think that partisan posturing is the way out, then they should go ahead and solve the problem. But commonsense suggests that this is a time to rally the nation rather than demonising the opposition.