The Nation Newspaper

Tag: President Goodluck Jonathan

  • A generator-driven economy

    A generator-driven economy

    Despite the coming of the electricity generation and distribution companies, power supply remains erratic. Offices, shops and homes are being powered by generators. In the manufacturing sector, rising energy cost remains the biggest threat to sustainability of business, reports Assistant Editor OKWY IROEGBU-CHIKEZIE.

    Two years ago, President Goodluck Jonathan boasted that by June 2013, Nigerians will not require the use of stand-by generators anymore, assuring that electricity supply would be stable.

    “I promise Nigerians we will stabilise power, “ the President said in an interview in February 2012.

    He said: “By the middle of next year (2013), you will ‘dash’ me your generator. I’ll send it out of this country because we won’t need it here anymore.” It was a promise that raised the hopes of many particularly manufacturers that electricity supply would improve soon.

    In making the promise, the President must have been encouraged by the privatisation and handover of power assets to private investors in November last year.

    However, the President’s promise is yet to be fulfilled, almost one year after. Nigerians are yet to see an improvement in electricity supply. Rather than improve, it has dropped abysmally, hovering between 3, 000 and 3, 200 Megawatts (MW), which is a far cry from the anticipated 14, 000 megawatts by 2013, under the administration’s power reform roadmap. The power roadmap targeted 40,000 MW by 2020.

    Because of the drop in electricity supply, the generator market has continued to boom. Several brands and sizes of generators are competing for patronage. Inn offices, market stalls and homes, generators have come to the rescue.

    In Lagos, which houses over  17 million people, for instance, generators are common sights. Today, a business plan incomplete the cost of generators and maintenance.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) estimates that Nigerians  spend a $13 billion yearly to fuel generators. Worst hit are manufacturers, industrialists, and small business operators that find succour in generators.

    For the President, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. Remi Bello, poor electricity supply remains the manufacturing sector’s major challenges. While noting that the power sector privatisation is yet to make the desired impact on the sector, he lamented that profit margin of manufacturing firms are still adversely affected due to rising energy cost. He said huge energy cost remains a major threat to business sustainability.

    Bello said although some multinationals and other conglomerates in the sector may have the resilience to cope, the situation remains a nightmare for most SMEs manufacturing outfits.

    He noted that the stagnation of the SME sector remains the tragedy of the country’s economy, as production is critical to economic and social stability.

    He said the business environment is generally not conducive for manufacturing enterprises, which is why the risk of industrial investment is high and continues to get higher. The various policy interventions have not had the desired impact on the sector. Unless there is an effective and sustained protection and support for the sector, it is difficult for any significant progress to be made in this regard,” Bello said.

    Chairman, DN Meyer Plc, Sir Remi Omotoso is also not finding the state of the nation’s power sector funny. “We all know that power is life. If you don’t have it you can’t move forward. Power is basic in manufacturing. As a company we generate close to 70 per cent of our energy needs and that makes a huge negative influence to our accumulation of cost. The power crisis is a  major issue. Unfortunately, as a former minister predicted that it may take 65 years to tackle the problem.”

    He stressed that his company, which has been around for decades, has the capacity to satisfy the needs of consumers in the entire Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region, but has been seriously hampered by the high cost of production , which makes the price of the end product more expensive than the imported ones. “We have not been able to satisfy our natural market because they (consumers) have alternatives and cheaper sources of paints and coatings from countries such as Dubai, Germany and Belgium,” he said.

    Executive Director, Agusto & Co., Yinka Adelekan regretted that Nigeria’s electricity consumption per capital has been adjudged to be the lowest in Africa. According to a report by the consulting  firm,  the country’s electricity consumption per capital, measured by the World Bank at 149 Kilowatts/hour (KWH) is low due to self generation by most of the citizenry which is often not captured “Typically, Nigerians resort to self-generation of electricity;  about 81 per cent of the national population (or 150 million Nigerians) generate electricity through alternative sources to compensate for irregular power supply,” she said.

    Adelekan also said that with an estimated annual economic growth of between 7 per cent and 13 per cent, as well as urbanisation rate of 3.8 per cent, the nation’s electricity demand is projected to grow from 15, 730 MW in 2014 to 41, 133 MW and 88, 282MW by year end 2015 and 2020, respectively. She disclosed that as at March 2014, electricity supply from the national grid stood at 4, 306 MW, far below the estimated demand of 12, 800 MW. This, Adelekan added, implies that currently Nigeria is only generating about 34 per cent of the country’s requirements, and this provides an enormous potential for new and existing players in the industry. She said access to electricity is low in the country, as only 40 per cent of the population has access to electricity, compared to the world average of 80 per cent.

    To make matters worse, the few who have access to electricity pay at a premium. For instance, Bello lamented that “most SMEs spend considerable sums on payment for power supply and often times these firms never get supply commensurate to payments made.” While calling on the National Electricity Commission (NERC), the electricity industry regulator, to urgently address the growing concerns of consumers over the outrageous bills, Bello said there is need for a review of fixed charges. He insisted that it is an unfair demand on power consumers.

    The National Vice-President of the Nigerian Association of Small Scale Industrialists, Chief Duro Kuteyi, is no less worried by the outrageous tariff charged consumers without a commensurate service delivery. He said the SME sector can only grow if the practice of fixed electricity charges to small scale industrialists is discontinued. He decried the impact of the high electricity charge of N186, 000 compared to actual usage of about N50, 000 and called for a proper billing system where industrialists are made to pay for what they use. He asked for a quick intervention on the power sector, noting that the burden of electricity on his members can best be imagined as may have closed shop.

    Why has there been no significant improvement in electricity supply despite the power sector privatisation? Adelekan said that Nigeria’s electricity generation capacity has fluctuated between 3, 500 MW and 4, 400 MW over the last two years due in part to shortage of gas supply. As she observed, a significant number of gas pipelines were vandalised across the country, which disrupted gas supply to power plants. Other factors contributing to the country’s low electricity generation output, she said, is the deplorable condition of some of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) successor generation and distribution companies (GENCOs and DISCOs), as well as high transmission/distribution losses.

    Indeed, apart from shortage of gas, the new core investors are faced with daunting challenges. For instance, The Nation learnt that shortly after the transaction and subsequent takeover of the power assets, the investors discovered that the privatisation was based on wrong assumptions because there was cash crunch in the sector and financial institutions were not willing to fund the projects, having committed about N1 trillion, which they (the lenders) are doubtful of recovering at the expected time. The exposure of the financial sector to the power sector, the investors said, is already heavy and the uncertainties arising from the situation increase their (financial sector) risk perception, which makes additional financing to cover the gaps identified in the sector difficult.

    The investors also felt bad that their projected revenue fell below expectation. They said that cash collected from customers (end users) of electricity is much lower than expected and was not enough to cover all costs in the sector. They said that the GENCOs and DISCOs face deviations between their projected business plans and the actual situation. The deviations, they said, are bigger than what can be handled within the limits of the official assumptions given for the privatisation.

    The investors also identified power equipment and facilities vandalism as a major challenge. Other challenges include energy theft, energy wastage by customers, and lack of urban planning whereby people build along the right of way of the utility companies and under high tension lines, among others.

    The challenges notwithstanding, Adelekan insists that the opportunities in the power sector are too numerous to be ignored by investors, given the wide supply-demand gap and the country’s huge population. Already, such advise as well as previous calls for increased private sector investment in the power sector, appear to be hitting the right chord. The management of Dangote Cement Plc, for instance, recently announced plans to invest $250million in coal-fired power plants in its Obajana, Ibeshe and Gboko plants.

    The Group Managing Director, Dangote Cement, Mr. Edwin Devakumar who announced this, said already the first consignment of coal has been imported from South Africa. He said the step was to address the poor power supply situation in the country. “As you know, the gas and fuel oil supply situation is going from bad to worse every day and all the manufacturing industries and all the power plants are affected,” he noted.

    The Group Managing Director regretted that the situation had reached such a critical stage that the company had been importing low Pour Fuel Oil (LPFO) due to its scarcity in the country, remarking that Nigeria normally used to export the product to other nations. According to Devakumar who disclosed that his company has taken delivery of three vessels of LPFO imported through the Apapa Ports, said each carried 30, 000 tones of the product while each of the coal plants would have capacity to generate 30 megawatts of electricity.

    He further stated that the company had to rent tank farms in Apapa, Lagos and Calabar, Cross River State to discharge the imported LPFO before transferring it to the cement plants. He particularly stressed the urgent need for the government to do something about the problems of gas and LPFO supply, noting that businesses cannot survive in the country without power and fuel and expressed fear that if the ugly situation is not resolved, it could compound the problem of unemployment and insecurity.

    “We have already lost about 10 per cent of our capacity and that means less cement in the market”, he said, adding however, that the company had also increased its production lines to take care of any shortfall. He explained that Dangote Group’s investment in coal-fired plants will give the company a lot of relief, stressing that the investment in coal has also created opportunities for the sector.

    Will other private investors take a cue from Dangote and save Nigerians and manufacturers the embarrassment of persistent poor electricity supply? Time will tell. But until and unless that happens, electricity consumers would continue to groan, while the rank of generator merchants continue to grow at the detriment of the economy generally.

  • Smirky Jonathan takes on conference sceptics

    President Goodluck Jonathan and his supporters are wildly exultant about the outcome of the national conference. In particular, the president has been irritably unsparing of his foes, whom he mocked furiously when he gave his remarks during the submission of the conference reports last Thursday. As far as he was concerned the conference succeeded, as he put it triumphantly, partly because he did not meddle in its deliberations and could not have meddled since he had no ulterior motives. Many trusting Nigerians, chiefly some voluble Southwest delegates who are battling their own private demons, echo the falsehood. The chairman of the conference, Idris Legbo Kutigi, a former Supreme Court justice, is however more restrained and magisterial, but Professor Bolaji Akinyemi even proffers reasons for what he described as the conference’s success.

    As a conference sceptic, and a proud one at that, one who unrepentantly distrusts Dr Jonathan’s motives, not to talk of his unprincipled conviction about and disinterestedness in the finer principles and building blocks of democracy, I find it difficult to explain the conference supporters’ hasty celebration. I do not understand why they are celebrating the very first step in the life of this boondoggle, as if all other conferences held since the 1970s miscarried during the discussions stage. Nor am I aware that conference sceptics predicted that the Jonathan conference would miscarry at the discussions stage, seeing that the delegates whose deliberations Dr Jonathan has falsely insinuated altruism, were handpicked.

    Dr Jonathan’s remarks show the depth of the problem confronting Nigeria. He has never been presidential in his approach to governance, and his statements have always been both uninspiring and inappropriate. In Thursday’s remarks, he spoke again with the boyish vendetta he is accustomed to, mocking and ridiculing his opponents, and failing to address their fears about why he convoked a conference he had moments earlier denounced in violent and acerbic language. He grinned mischievously, poked fun at his detractors, and indulged in fantasies about how the conference was an ambitious answer to the national question. He forgot that as imperfect as the current constitution is, the country’s problem is hardly caused by the letter of the constitution, nor even by its spirit. The problem has always been largely incompetent, immature, ignorant and selfish leaders. The conference did not address these other major attitudinal issues, nor could it have.

    In his remarks, Dr Jonathan had said: “The success of this conference has proved the cynics wrong in many respects. Those who dismissed the entire conference ab initio as a ‘diversion’ have been proved wrong as what you achieved has contrary to their forecast diverted our country only from the wrong road to the right direction. They said the conference would end in a deadlock as Nigeria had reached a point where the constituent parts could no longer agree on any issue.” It is not certain where the president got the misinformation that Nigeria’s constituent parts could not agree on anything, nor is it clear why he prematurely concludes that cynics have been proved wrong. As Justice Kutigi himself more wisely put it, previous conferences also successfully concluded their deliberations and submitted their reports.

    Though Dr Jonathan holds very high hopes for the conference report, so far, however, he has ruled like a tyrant, and, should he be re-elected, would continue to rule like one with unmitigated contempt for the constitution and the rule of law. If his supporters fail to see this, they are as entitled to live in denial as the president is entitled to nurture his chimera. However, the real battle over the conference will begin soon, going by how adeptly Dr Jonathan has prepared booby traps for Nigerians over the conference. First, he concocted the conference as a distraction, in spite of his tame denial, and designed it to raise political capital for himself for the 2015 polls. Second, as the most divisive president Nigeria has ever had, he is prepared to further divide Nigerians over the conference reports. He has said he will implement the conference recommendations that relate to policy matters, though his record in policy implementation and substantial reforms is questionable, and pass the constitutional recommendations, which are of course the most crucial of the conference’s three objectives, to the National Assembly. But both he and his voluble conference supporters, including jubilant and impetuous delegates, have already begun to insinuate that it would be unpatriotic for lawmakers to amend the recommendations substantially. Indeed, without legal basis, they even brusquely suggest that a referendum and a complete bypass of the legislature would not be out of place, irrespective of the fact that the legislature is already amending the constitution.

    How Dr Jonathan’s handpicked delegates can arrogate to themselves the supreme wisdom of knowing what we want, press ahead to suggest a silly, indefensible six-year tenure for the executive, and foolishly inspire the creation of 18 more states to compel acquiescence, all speak to their Nigerianness, if not Africanness, as a people without discipline, moderation, restraint, vision and commonsensical tolerance of the opposition. And with the collapse of the Labour Party, as witnessed in Ondo State, and also APGA in the Southeast into the PDP, the stage seems set for the massive betrayal and destruction of Nigeria by its short-sighted and ingratiating political elite. We owe it to future generations not to let them.

  • Fed Govt to create Devt Finance Institution

    Fed Govt to create Devt Finance Institution

    • CBN extends Agric Credit Scheme to 2025

    To support industrial development in the country, the Federal Government said it will establish wholesale Development Finance Institution (DFI) to provide long-term funds for industrial development.

    Also, the board of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has approved the extension of Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme from 2016 to 2025 to enable it fund more projects.

    Speaking yeterday in Abuja at the Eight Micro Small Medium Enterprises (MSME) Finance Conference where he also officially started the disbursement of N220 billion for medium, MSME development, President Goodluck Jonathan said the proposed institution was part of measures to enhance the contribution of MSMEs to the country’s economic growth and development.

    President Jonathan said the proposed DFI would provide long-term finance spanning up to 15 years for relevant entrepreneurs and industrialists especially people involved in tree crop production.

    He also disclosed that there were plans by the Federal Government to restructure existing DFIs for better performance and improved access to finance by MSMEs. He noted that as Africa’s largest economy with excellent prospects of becoming one of the world’s 20 largest economies by 2020, the challenges confronting MSMEs in  Nigeria must be addressed head on.

    He said: “MSMEs are recognised all over the world as engine of growth in any development oriented economy. Besides their inherent labour intensive production processes, they also provide a viable platform for job creation globally.

    “All over the developed world the contributions of MSMEs to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) average about 47 per cent; this shows clearly how important MSMEs are to us.”

    The president said a vibrant MSME sub-sector was indispensable for achieving sustainable transformation of the economy.

    The N220 billion MSME Development Fund, the president said will be received by participating financial institutions and state governments for onward lending to MSMEs across the country.

  • CBN begins disbursement of N220b MSME cash

    CBN begins disbursement of N220b MSME cash

    President Goodluck Jonathan will today launch the disbursement of the N220 billion Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund (MSMEDF) initiated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), last year.

    Speaking during the 8th MSME Conference and Entrepreneurial Awards, which commenced yesterday in Abuja, the Governor of the  CBN Godwin Emefiele, said the the CBN has instituted an ‘Entrepreneurship Clinic’ where aspiring young entrepreneurs will be trained and mentored and provided with required tool-kits to start and grow their businesses.

    To this end, Emefiele said that 60 enterprising graduates have been specifically invited to the programme to be trained and mentored on how to identify business opportunities and source finance.

    He explained that “the young entrepreneurs participating at the session will be monitored with respect to the progress and achievements recorded before the next Conference.”

    He said Nigeria has achieved remarkable economic growth and development in recent years as a result of the resilience of our people, the innovativeness of our enterprises and the programmes of our governments at all levels.

    He said in the last seven years, the Nigerian economy expanded by an average of seven per cent, while sub-Sahara Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product’s growth averaged 5.2 per cent, adding that in the first quarter of 2014, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 6.2 per cent, mainly driven by an 8.2 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

    He however said that sustaining this development, and economic growth, will depend largely on the provision of affordable and efficient financial services to the MSMEs, particularly the micro entrepreneurs who account for more than 90 percent of the MSMEs in Nigeria.

    “It is imperative that this segment of the financial system be strengthened in order to forestall the inevitable adverse socio-economic consequences of financial exclusion,” he stated, adding access to finance “has a significant multiplier effect on the economy because of its catalytic effect on job creation and poverty reduction.

    Emefiele, said it is in realisation of this fact that the CBN launched the N220 billion MSME Development Fund to provide financial resources to the entrepreneurs across the country through Participating Financial Institutions (PFIs).

    With the official flag off today, it is expected that full disbursement of the fund, launched last October would take off in earnest and many states have expressed interest in accessing the fund for their peculiar MSMEs.

  • Osun: Oju ti owo (money is shamed) and the fascists are put to shame

    Osun: Oju ti owo (money is shamed) and the fascists are put to shame

    Ministers of Yoruba extraction became couriers and guardians of money meant to swindle elections in two southwest states, yet it failed in Osun’s case.

    A few reactions to my last week’s article questioned my fidelity to the cause of progressivism when they saw me give hints as to how President Goodluck Jonathan could brighten his chances in the 2015 presidential election without him having to ride roughshod on the rights of the electorate by unduly militarising elections and putting opposition party members through untold torture. Let me confess that I did that because I know that the man is not intrinsically bad; nor is he a Pharaoh but being too sold on his re-election, he has permitted himself  to be dominated by two groups of Yoruba politicians, namely, the elders, whose politics is now being  solely driven by their enmity towards the former Lagos State governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who they never cease to claim they made, but now looms a million times larger than them politically and so had to be stopped in his tracks by their being on the coattails of whoever is Lord of Abuja while the  other group is the rambunctious power mongers I have dubbed the fascists in the title of this article and who would not mind Nigeria going to perdition. These are the two groups that recommended the total clamp down on APC members in both Ekiti and Osun, a scenario that was completely absent in the militarisation of both Edo and Anambra elections simply because, for them, Jonathan must, willy nilly, be re-elected.  A clear attestation to this was Dr Okunrounmu’s fervent prayer to God, in a newspaper interview, that Aregbesola should lose the Osun election but which prayer the all-knowing God returned to his laps in ringing hollowness because they do not mean well for the Yoruba.

    Lest I forget, I must quickly point out that the first part of this title, OJU TI OWO, is in deference to a very distinguished retired General who called me first thing on the Monday after Ogbeni shamed them all, to suggest that title for the week. As for the elders, distinguished men in all respects, what also drives them is excessive bile. When was this one born and didn’t we make him governor in the first place? That is their regular refrain about Tinubu and it accounts for all the troubles President Jonathan is putting us through in Yoruba land. I will actually not be surprised if some of these elders elect to go meet their maker than see Tinubu’s party holding the reins of federal power. It should be remembered that they were publicly led to the Villa by the duo of Olusegun Mimiko and Gbenga Daniel, two men that can never serve the president enough.

    It has been suggested in serious circles that it is to enhance President Jonathan’s re-election that these elders mooted the idea of the just concluded National Conference and got their in-house academic to write the enabling memo complete with a word as to how to ‘work’ the membership so that the president could be gifted a fresh term of six years. All they needed to do, going forward, was to be vigilant and ensure that from start to finish, a member of the group was on the ringside, missing nothing. Only problem, it turned out, was how to finally turn the resolutions of a conference that was only a presidential proclamation without any legal backing to a draft constitution. That ended up causing the ruckus at the end of the conference because they did try to force it through, pretending not to know that constitution making requires a different set of modalities.

    Then come the fascists and I challenge any Nigerian to tell me where, in this country today, there is a greater assemblage of the type of characters that mill around the president claiming to be the PDP poster-boys than the Southwest; those former governor OIagunsoye Oyinlola so uncannily described. These are men who have quite easily made an angel of the once swashbuckling Chief Bode George of the Obasanjo era and who will not mind seeing Nigeria to Armageddon. No wonder there is the whispering news that PDP leaders from both the Niger-Delta and the South-East hate their arrogance with a passion. I have no doubt they sold election militarisation in the Southwest to the president. They had earlier conned him to cede to them, the macho ministries of Police Affairs and Defence in the belief that Yoruba are weaklings, a suggestion to which the president easily agreed. And money was never their problem as this was being ferried, a day to each election, in millions from Abuja by choppers accompanied by Yoruba ministers of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. It does not get more sickening.

    If we were caught unawares in Ekiti with militarisation, torture and pre-programmed ballot papers which they, of course, could no longer deploy in Osun having been busted, not so in Osun where our compatriots showed them that the Yoruba are no weaklings, after all. Indeed, they were so determined to shame the ‘Ode Apanias’ –as one called himself after he slapped a former governor of the state – that they trouped out in mammoth numbers and ended up recording the highest percentage at any election in Nigeria since June 12.

    To demonstrate what exactly these power mongers are turning the president to all because they claim they would deliver the votes of a region where they are loathed like a leach come 2015, I reproduce below the notes of Wole Olujobi, a journalist and Media Adviser to the Rt. Honourable Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, on how these desperadoes led soldiers, policemen and hooded others to deal with APC leaders, members, and Ekitis in general:

    “At a press conference attended by about 40 journalists a few days before the election, the State Chairman of APC, Chief Jide Awe, gave the names of members marked for arrest. Governor Fayemi was himself tear-gassed and the MOPOL Commander Gabriel Selenkere, from the Niger-Delta, was quoted as saying that he was “acting on orders from above”. But the siege was yet to come as members  slated  for  arrest included the  Chairman  himself, the Chief of Staff to the governor, Yemi Adaramodu; Richard Apolola , Hon Sunday Ibitoye, Niyi Adedipe, Tope Olanipekun, Rotimi Olambiwonu, Otunba Femi Olanrewaju, Peter Oladosu and Speaker, the Rt. Hon. Dr. Adewale Omirin, Speaker of the Ekiti State House of Assembly, Hon  Olurotimi Odu, Member of the state House of Assembly; Oladipo Ige, Hon Taiwo Olatunbosun Former Deputy Speaker, the Jamiu brothers, the Security Adviser to the governor,  Col Babatunde  Oluwayose (rtd),  Special Adviser to the governor, Kayode Akinyemi, Hon. Peter Adekunle, Ojo Olanipekun, Kayode Ojo, Femi Aluko,  Tayo Egunlusi. Caroline Egunlusi and Thomas Ajewole.

    “APC members were to be shocked into knowing that that was only the beginning when Chief Dapo Awojolu, a 70-year-old APC leader was seized. The Director General of Kayode Fayemi Campaign Organisation, Hon. Bimbo Daramola,MHR,  was arrested and his father thrown into an army jeep and driven away. Finance Commissioner, Dapo Kolawole, Chief Bisi Egbeyemi, Oodua Board member;  State Protocol Officer, Tade Aluko, Special Adviser, Tope Osatoyinbo and others too numerous to mention were all arrested and kept incommunicado until voting was over. Hon. Femi Awe, an LG Chairman had to scale the fence of his house to escape the early morning. Sunday Adeyanju was pointed out by a PDP member, himself in mask inside a soldiers’ truck. Earlier, Vice President Namadi Sambo had declared Ekiti election a war.

    “Eight PDP members were arrested thumb-printing ballot papers in Dipo Ani’s, (Ayo Fayose’s campaign manager) hotel at Are-Ekiti. Yet nothing came of it even after the then AIG confirmed their arrest. A week before election, a vehicle with voting materials was intercepted by soldiers who were alarmed to see 2014 stamps for Ekiti election among the materials. Till today, nothing more has been heard. In Ekiti soldiers were under instruction to respond with maximum force to any reaction by the people and the soldiers did not leave Ekiti until the House of Assembly passed a resolution to that effect.”

    This was the torture chamber these reprobates cooked Ekiti APC leaders, members and Ekiti people in general in and they are here gloating all over the place that they won an election and Marilyn Oga continues with her joke of the century.

  • Fed Govt position on Boko Haram? Why, it’s guesswork all the way

    Fed Govt position on Boko Haram? Why, it’s guesswork all the way

    The Council of State will not be the first body to set a deadline of sorts for ending the Boko Haram menace. The police, military and President Goodluck Jonathan himself had before this latest surge of enthusiasm set their own deadlines, all of them assured that the sect would be vanquished on a given date. They have all been spectacularly wrong, of course, with Boko Haram repeatedly putting the noses of these casual soothsayers out of joint. But refusing to be discomfited by the failure of past soothsayers, the council has suggested that everything would be done to end the Boko Haram insurgency by December, some four or five from now.

    Addressing the press in company with a few other governors and top security officers on July 31, Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State suggested: “So, all the things came to the fore at the meeting and subsequently, each of us made it a deliberate resolution not to be bi-partisan or non-partisan, to support the President to make sure that we get rid of this insurgency and indeed suggesting that this should happen before December.” Why the governor and his colleagues, and indeed the entire council itself, do not realise the implication of setting a date is hard to fathom. Surely they must understand that the benefit of inspiring the public with unguarded optimism is less harmful than setting a date and Boko Haram provocatively exposing their impotence. Well, they have set a date; they must head to the guillotine and lose their heads or return with the heads of the Jacobins by December.

    But what is even more troubling about the Council of State resolution is this wisecrack from Governor Aliyu: “We must understand the boundaries of leadership and also the responsibilities that are involved. Leadership is not about beauty contest. In leadership, you must take difficult decisions and really go about implementing them.” The governor is nearly right. It is true that leadership has its responsibilities, and often these call for the taking of difficult decisions. But the problem with governments in Nigeria, as virtually all of them in the council are guilty of, and President Jonathan is even guiltier of, is that often the so-called difficult decisions are nothing but unwise decisions. Public policy in Nigeria is replete with foolish decisions. In short both the president and governors have taken more unwise decisions than they have taken difficult decisions.

    Take for instance the so-called difficult decision that confronts President Jonathan on the Chibok abductions. The president has at various times, and depending on his audience, minced his words, hesitated or despaired. Less than two weeks ago, newspapers quoted him voicing out his dilemma on that unsavoury topic of abductions. He argued he was unsure what to do; for whether he swapped the girls, and was accused of setting a dangerous precedent, or he attacked the girls’ captors, and was accused of reckless endangerment, he was certain to be damned. It appeared to mean he was more comfortable perching on the safe horns of a dilemma than deciding one way or the other what options he could live with. Alas, but almost certainly not finally, the president has for the umpteenth time conceded he had begun negotiating with Boko Haram through third parties. He had perished the inadaptable Sri Lankan ‘Total War’ strategy, which he briefly toyed with, and any other strategy for that matter.

    What is now clear is that whatever strategy would be found to resolve the Chibok abductions and end the Boko Haram war would come as a result of the president’s considerable fumbling and wobbling. There will be no scientific or rational plan to end the war, thus rendering the Council of State’s timetable capricious, insulting and provocative. Success cannot be ruled out, but it would be undeserving and probably against the run of play. Indeed, the remarks made by governors and state officials after the meeting raised more apprehension than it resolved fears. It became obvious why the country is misgoverned, and more especially why the president, upon whom officials doted and fawned, has become increasingly tyrannical.

    It is on occasions such as this, when the president seems to have his way without the restraining voice, conscience or remonstrances of the Council of State, that Nigerians appreciate the gratuitous rebuke past leaders like Chief Obasanjo and Gen Muhammadu Buhari sometimes hurl at Dr Jonathan. Rebuke is clearly not enough, as the mismanaged Boko Haram menace shows, but it can amount to something if politicians recognise the danger of supporting the president only because he appears to be punishing their regional or state enemies. It is also significant that Gen Buhari and Chief Obasanjo excused themselves from the meeting. They did not indicate why they were absent, whether inadvertently or deliberately. But their absence was significant. There are sadly too many members of the Council of State who can’t look the vengeful Dr Jonathan in the face and tell him he is wrong or insensitive. Nor, apparently was there any former president in last week’s council meeting able to tell the president he had misplaced his priorities and was leading the country down the blind alley of arbitrary rule.

    The president often encourages himself that the Boko Haram menace would soon end. He is right. Whatever has a beginning must end one day. But the fact is that he has done precious little to end the war or to even limit the sufferings the victims and the economy are enduring. Since he inherited the insurgency, the only seemingly bright idea he had brought into it is to set up the victims support fund, which some days ago raised the implausibly high figure of nearly N60bn. But both the fund and the amount raised pose two disturbing questions. To raise such a staggering amount, even in the cause of public good, should make economy watchers and tax analysts ponder just what kind of economic structure we run, and just how proficiently the system compels philanthropists to respect their obligations.

    Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it is incredible that to fulfill its obligations to society, especially in emergencies and great moments of national distress, the government has often relied on the public-spiritedness of the rich segment of the society. Both in the great flood of 2012 and in the current insurgency, the Jonathan government has relied almost exclusively on donations, some of which are not even honoured, thus giving the impression of governmental benevolence. Rather than put legislation in place to compensate victims of terrorism as other societies do, the government has nothing in place to recompense the public for government’s failure to perform its constitutional duties of protecting citizens. This is why in Abuja and elsewhere, victims of terrorism find themselves lacking the funds to access the right medical care, even after the president or governor had visited and given empty promises. The government has no business organising charity for its people. That should be left to individuals, private organisations and NGOs.

    The country yearns for a concise and possibly multifaceted approach to quelling the insurgency. The strategy should include the speedy rescue of the girls from Boko Haram captivity, a captivity that has blighted the country’s image and sullied the reputation of the president himself. It should also include caring for victims of terrorism at government expense, while not ignoring victims who have become internally displaced or have become refugees in Chad and other countries. It should also crucially include understanding the issues that predispose the country to insurgency and shape its responses, as well as finding panaceas for present and long term challenges, a task that appears beyond this divisive and insular government. In fact at the moment, the Jonathan government has approached the insurgency and other threats to national security with all the desultoriness it can manage, with all the guesswork at its disposal, and with such abject half-heartedness that nearly everyone is left with the impression the government is profiting from the misery of the people.

  • The choice before Osun

    The choice before Osun

    Next Saturday’s governorship election in Osun State is strictly speaking between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Any other party staking a claim to the state’s Government House is simply making up the number. Should PDP win, the party, and by inference, President Goodluck Jonathan, could create a roaring momentum that would be hard to stop going into the 2015 general elections. Not only would the party make a serious and plausible claim to reclaiming the Southwest for the PDP, as many of the party’s leading political philosophers suggest and desire, even Dr Jonathan, whose life and politics consistently defy gravity and logic, could feel considerably animated about his chances. The president’s life is full of happenstances; indeed, it relies on happenstances; and his politics, strangely energised by its mediocre pauses, now relies almost entirely on brute force, intimidation, harassment and constitutional subversion.

    But should APC win, as its beleaguered apparatchiks earnestly hope, it would check the heresy triggered by the Ekiti governorship poll, buoy up the party in general terms, create a fresh momentum for the opposition towards the 2015 polls, especially the presidential election, and arrest the PDP frenzy in the Southwest. In short, the APC needs Osun much more than the PDP does. Ekiti proved during the June governorship poll that the Southwest is not as ideologically driven as many analysts, including this columnist, hoped. Ideology is therefore unlikely to play a dominant role in shaping Osun’s electoral choices on Saturday. Instead, rather than party preference, Osun will more likely than not vote for personality. But secondarily, I suspect, Osun will also try to distance itself from the unwholesome factors that tarred the Ekiti poll, especially the specious reasons given to justify the revolt against Governor Kayode Fayemi.

    The contest in Osun will be narrowed down to a straight fight between Governor Rauf Aregbesola and Senator Iyiola Omisore. Both, it is obvious, have been tried in one office or the other; the former as governor, and the latter as a senator, former deputy governor, ruthless machinator, and maverick politician. Choosing between the two politicians should not present Osun with a hard task, though both gentlemen have an insatiable knack for courting controversy and for sailing near the wind. Governor Aregbesola is not unbeatable, for after all, I have had reasons to disagree with him vehemently, and still do; but it will require someone acutely cerebral, much calmer, more reflective and more genuine than the challenger. Senator Omisore is none of these, and no matter how hard he tries, can’t be. Indeed, the most poignant part of the challenger’s persona is his absolute lack of reflection, not to talk of his impatience, dangerous and intuitive iconoclasm, which he displayed in his numerous battles with the late Minister of Justice, Bola Ige, and complete vacuity. Like Ekiti’s Governor-elect, Ayo Fayose, who neither believes nor stands for anything substantial, Senator Omisore feigns disingenuous eclecticism by borrowing bits and pieces of disjointed ideas from all sources.

    In politics, it is said that you can’t beat something with nothing. But it happened in Ekiti last June where a hollow nothing beat a full something. The misfortune of Senator Omisore is to live in a state like Osun eager to buck the trend of the so-called PDP reclamation of the Southwest rather than in a vengeful Ekiti full of vendetta. Though he has tried his valiant best to put on the Fayose airs – of spontaneous roadside meals, of wisecracks and rural jocosity, and of a risible attachment to indefinable pragmatism – the fact remains that he is not Mr Fayose, and Osun is not Ekiti.

    Governor Aregbesola, on the other hand, and in spite of his fondness for leftist/Marxist regimentation, has managed to capture popular imagination in Osun. More, he is a workaholic, someone genuinely interested in affecting the course of history, in overthrowing the citadel of privilege, making a name for himself, touching lives, and demystifying governance. His passion sometimes makes him overreach himself, but he at least shows courage in tackling societal problems even at the risk of alienating sections of his society. I doubt whether Osun will punish him for this. Even after the election, the fight for societal redefinition will continue, and I think by and by, he will have to face reality and reach an accommodation with his critics.

    But perhaps the main reason I expect him to win is because Osun, more than Ekiti, recognises that the battle for the soul of the Southwest is raging fiercely. They recognise that if the tide is to be turned, Osun will have to set the pace, similar to what they did during the 2011 presidential poll. They recognise instinctively the consequence of the return of Mr Fayose. They know it is a harbinger of bad news for the zone, a return to vagrant politics, mediocrity, and social and cultural anomie. They know a vote for Omisore, especially with the unresolved Chief Ige murder for which he was at a time detained and even interdicted, will open the door for the return of Adebayo Alao-Akala and other underachieving politicians without programmes and without reputation. They know Senator Omisore and Mr Fayose will get the Southwest sucked once again into the vortex of another silly season.

    To prove that Ekiti made a grave error of judgement, Osun will likely and very sensibly re-elect Governor Aregbesola. It will not be a wholesale endorsement of all his policies in his first term. But it will be their way of repudiating Senator Omisore who is so unfit for high office it is inconceivable he is at all fit for anything. It will also be their way of showing the federal government that the unconstitutional madness of militarising polls does not intimidate them, let alone yield anything productive for the Jonathan presidency. Finally, it will be their way of showing they recognise that the disinformation and misinformation that perverted the Ekiti poll will not be accommodated in Osun. I endorse Governor Aregbesola without reservation. I would rather reason and disagree with an Aregbesola who can feel the weight of criticism, notwithstanding his sometimes inflexible approach, than a pliant and dissembling Omisore whose lack of character and distorted worldview make him inured to criticism and change.

  • Boko Haram: Time is running out

    I don’t envy President Goodluck Jonathan and his officials when they have to respond to the continuous attacks by the Boko Haram insurgents and other terrorist groups in the country.  Their reactions have become so predictable that there seems to be a template for such statements that what is required is for the name of the state where the latest incident is recorded to be inserted and some paragraphs moved around.

    I imagine that if the presidency has its way, it would prefer not to keep issuing the embarrassing statements which contain promises it has found hard to fulfill. If the promises so far made by the federal government of being on top of the security problems in the country are anything to go by, terrorist attacks should at least have subsided by now.

    Unfortunately instead of being checkmated, the terrorists from all indications are gaining more grounds by killing so many people that it is hard to compute how many innocent Nigerians have died in suicide bomb blasts.

    Despite the joint security cover provided by the military and the police, the terrorists have become so sophisticated that they have recently unleashed female suicide bombers on some states. No one is sure when the next suicide bomber will strike.

    Last week, some graduates checking their National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) postings in Kano were killed when a female suicide bomber ran into their midst and diffused the bomb on her. That is how bad the security situation in the country has degenerated that it is difficult to believe that the federal government knows what next to do.

    Like the president noted in one of his anti-Boko Haram pronouncements last week, years ago, it is difficult to imagine that any Nigerian will agree to be a suicide bomber like we used to read about. However, this is the sordid situation we have found ourselves and there is an urgent need to do everything possible to stop the terrorists from further endangering the fragile peace and stability in the country.

    The president said the country would have been in turmoil if former Head of State, General Muhamad Buhari, had been killed in the recent attack in Kaduna. He was right as it would have been difficult to stop the spontaneous reaction by Buhari’s supporters who despite all denials still believe that the attack was sponsored.

    At the launching of the Victims Support Fund in Abuja last week, President Jonathan made a firm promise that he will lead the battle to defeat Boko Haram.  He has no choice but to fulfill this promise in accordance with the oath of office he swore to.

    More than ever before, Nigerians are worried about their safety in various parts of the country and the needed confidence has to be restored as quickly as possible.

    It used to be that graduates were usually excited about being posted to any part of the country, but that is no longer the case. To be posted to some states now is almost equated to a death sentence.

    Nigerians are tired of reading condolence messages from Aso Rock.  They want permanent solutions to the security challenges in the country and federal government cannot afford to fail in this matter if it wants to be taken seriously.

  • Jonathan’s war, from Buhari’s perspective

    Jonathan’s war, from Buhari’s perspective

    After observing the ruling party’s open and unremitting war against the opposition, Gen Muhammadu Buhari last week felt compelled to warn President Goodluck Jonathan not to take the country on the misguided path of tyranny and dictatorship. The president will be reluctant to listen to the general, for he would probably think that once he wins the 2015 presidential poll, then he would be in a position to offer concessions and make amends. But even the hypothetical offer of concessions would be a far-fetched idea should he win the poll, for Dr Jonathan naturally loathes the opposition, sees the presidency as an office to be revered rather than respected, uses the words criticism and abuse interchangeably, and is willing to bring every national institution to the service of his private political goals.

    Said Buhari: “Our country has gone through several rough patches, but never before have I seen a Nigerian President declare war on his own country as we are seeing now. Never before have I seen a Nigerian President deploy federal institutions in the service of partisanship as we are witnessing now. Never before have I seen a Nigerian President utilise the common wealth to subvert the system and punish the opposition, all in the name of politics.” The trigger for the Buhari warning was of course the impeachment of Murtala Nyako, until recently the Governor of Adamawa State, in circumstances that were clearly political, and also the ongoing impeachment effort against Governor Tanko Al-Makura of Nasarawa State, again in circumstances that are evidently immature and political. Both impeachment plots, as well as a few others in the pipeline, are widely believed to be aimed at crippling the opposition APC and making the re-election of Dr Jonathan in 2015 much surer.

    The president and his aides have denied that Dr Jonathan is behind the unsavoury plots. But Gen Buhari is unimpressed by the subterfuge. He reiterates that, “Whether or not President Goodluck Jonathan is behind the gale of impeachment or the utilisation of desperate tactics to suffocate the opposition and turn Nigeria into a one-party state, what cannot be denied is that they are happening under his watch, and he cannot pretend not to know, since that will be akin to hiding behind one finger.”

    Then the general warns apocalyptically: “I, along with many other patriotic Nigerians, fought for the unity and survival of this country. Hundreds of thousands of patriotic souls perished in the battle to keep Nigeria one. The blood of many of our compatriots helped to water the birth of the democracy we are all enjoying today. Let no one, whether leader or led, high or low, a member of the ruling party or the opposition, do anything to torpedo the system. Let no one, whether on the altar of personal ambition or pretension to higher patriotic tendencies, do anything that can detonate the powder keg on which the nation is sitting. It is time for all concerned to spare a thought for the ordinary citizens who have yet to see their hopes, dreams and aspirations come to reality, within the general context of nationhood.”

    Was Gen Buhari unduly harsh, or did he overstate the problem? I doubt very much. Other former heads of state recognise the problem, but have perhaps chosen to engage in private but unproductive engagement with the president. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, even though he was partly responsible for the foisting of Dr Jonathan on Nigeria, has shouted himself hoarse over Dr Jonathan’s poor judgement and lack of wisdom. The alarming fact is that Dr Jonathan is the least sensitive to just how close Nigeria is to fracturing. If the other former presidents and heads of state will not weigh in to compel the president to a high degree of moderation and constitutional discipline, we could soon all discover that there is after all nothing inevitable or irreversible about the peace, stability and unity the country glibly confesses.

  • External loan to fight Boko Haram a hard sell

    External loan to fight Boko Haram a hard sell

    If proof is required to show how and why Nigeria has been misgoverned, last week’s request by President Goodluck Jonathan to the National Assembly to be allowed to borrow one billion dollars from external sources is indisputably the most convincing. Writing to the National Assembly, the president had reasoned: “You are no doubt (familiar) with the ongoing and serious security challenges which the nation is facing, as typified by the Boko Haram terrorist threat. This is an issue that we have discussed at various times. I would like to bring to your attention the urgent need to upgrade the equipment, training and logistics of our Armed Forces and Security Services to enable them more forcefully to confront this serious threat. For this reason, I seek the concurrence of the National Assembly for external borrowing of not more than $1bn, including government to government arrangements, for this upgrade.”

    Predictably, the request has stirred controversy. The government apparently banks on the fact that everyone will be so worried by the security situation in the Northeast and elsewhere that the country would be compelled, if not blackmailed, into granting quick and easy approval. In particular, the presidency hopes that no one in the National Assembly would like to be seen as standing in the way of equipping and motivating Nigerian troops in the anti-terror war. But if approval is secured as fast and as easy as the presidency hopes, it would be a mockery both of legislative processes and citizen involvement in governance. Both civil society and the parliament should press the government for full explanations on why the Jonathan government thinks the nearly one trillion naira it has budgeted for defence this year is inadequate, and why an estimated 10 percent only is allocated for capital spending.

    Importantly too, the government needs to provide adequate proof it has not been profligate with public funds. In my opinion that proof would be difficult to provide. For instance, rather than offer proof of prudence in the use of public funds by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, especially as it relates to the chartering of aircraft for the use of its minister, the government has engaged in vexatious subterfuge. Then there is also the about $20bn the former Central Bank governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, alleged had not been accounted for by the Jonathan government in the past few years. All the government has said through the Minister of Finance is that only about $10bn or $12bn is yet to be accounted for. Let the government find the missing money and take one billion dollars out of it for the purposes it is seeking authorisation.

    By every yardstick, the Boko Haram war cannot be compared with the Nigerian Civil War. While the current anti-terror war has lasted for about five years, it only assumed the dimension it has become in the last two or three years. Conversely, Nigeria’s finances were so well managed during the civil war that no penny was borrowed from outside the country. There is nothing to show that the Jonathan presidency has managed the finances of the country and run the military efficiently to guarantee that in borrowing more money we would not be throwing money at the problem. For instance, the government wants more troops, and has begun a recruitment exercise, yet it could spare troops to seize newspapers from vendors in parts of the country, while it also needlessly deployed tens of thousands of soldiers and other security forces to police election in only one small state, Ekiti.

    Reports from the Northeast do not indicate that the government has managed the Boko Haram war as efficiently as Nigerians have demanded. Giving the government more money other than for developmental needs would amount to an indefensible waste. In his justification for the loan request, the Coordinator of National Information Centre, Mike Omeri, offered this trite argument: “Even the United States goes for this kind of facility. For any country involved in such military expedition, not just the Boko Haram issue, but engaged in a number of military exercises, its stock will deplete. Every country must restock to reinforce its capability.” He also tried to link the request with the need to expedite action in rescuing the abducted Chibok girls. No one is convinced. The schoolgirls have spent more than three months in captivity because the government approached the problem wrongly and incompetently. The public should not be made to underwrite the government’s wastefulness and slothfulness.

    If the Jonathan government cannot explain where the $10bn missing money has gone, nor bring the wasteful Petroleum minister to account, nor give infallible proof it is capable of running the military efficiently, it should not be allowed to commit the country to more debt or be allowed to blackmail us with the rising spectre of insecurity. What the country needs is probably not more money, but more sense in managing its affairs and the many challenges confronting it. As the May 1970 lecture given by Chief Obafemi Awolowo at the University of Ibadan shows inferentially, the quality of Nigerian ministers and public servants has declined horribly. Their arguments, appreciation of issues and understanding of the social contract are so elementary that it is not surprising the country is plunging into more mess by the day.

    The Awolowo lecture in reference showed how, without external borrowing, Nigeria financed the civil war. The late sage estimated that in terms of the ‘calculable and visible cost of the war’, about three hundred million pounds sterling was spent, and it was made up of two hundred and thirty million pounds sterling in local currency, and seventy million pounds sterling foreign exchange. In his opinion, the country shunned external borrowing in order to save ‘national honour and pride, and (avoid) corrosion of our sovereignty and self-confidence.’ The question today is, where is our national pride and self-confidence?

    It is not certain how the National Assembly will treat the Jonathan request for foreign loan to prosecute the Boko Haram war, but Nigerians must urge their lawmakers to ask Dr Jonathan to instead plug the leakages in the military itself and especially in the NNPC. Enough money has been declared missing or embezzled to finance more than five Boko Haram wars. At any rate, it must be remembered that when Nigeria financed its civil war without foreign loan, the size of its military concomitantly grew from less than 20,000 before the war to about 250,000 after the war. A proper audit of the current personnel strength and finances of the military may even show that it is unnecessary to engage in any recruitment exercise. If Dr Jonathan can’t run Nigeria, and can’t get the people who can do it to join him, and can’t muster the patriotism, vision, and determination to do what is right, he should step aside rather than seek to commit the country to fresh debt and insolvency.

    Boko Haram war is the creation of this generation; it must not pass the financing of it to future generations. One stupidity, if my readers will forgive this coinage, is enough for one generation.