Was the state of the Nigerian economy really healthy and buoyant on May 29, 2015 or heading for the rocks?
This was the crux of the controversy between the immediate past administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan and the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.
The fresh hostility started when Jonathan spoke at the 2017 PDP Special Non-Election Convention in Abuja penultimate weekend.
He appeared to have stirred the hornet’s nest with his claim that his administration handed over a healthy and robust economy to President Muhammadu Buhari in May 2015.
He declared that Nigeria’s economy would have been more robust if the Buhari’s administration had consolidated on the achievements of his administration.
He said, “On the economic front, we provided focused leadership, through institutional and sectoral reforms which impacted positively on the fundamentals for growth, especially in the last four years of our time in power.
“The effect was that we tamed inflation at a single digit, maintained price stability, grew the economy to become the largest in Africa with a GDP of over half a trillion US dollars, and the number one foreign direct investment destination on the continent.
“And I tell all PDP members that from the days of Obasanjo, through the days of Yar’Adua to Jonathan, we have done well. Nobody should intimidate you.
“I learnt that some people said that if PDP had remained in power beyond 2015, the economy would have performed worse. This couldn’t have been the case, because we had a sound economic team in place, managing the economy,” he said
On 2019, he said “Let it be known, in all nooks and crannies of our country, that the PDP is back to claim its rightful place in the affairs of the nation. As we have always done, we are ready to return Nigeria to the path of unity, peace and prosperity,” he stated.
But the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and publicity, Malam Garba Shehu, wasted no time to react to Jonathan’s claims.
He said “With due respects to the former President Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, these are the facts about the economy you left behind, in case you have forgotten.
“I hope this will help to erase the wrong statement credited to you at your party, the PDP Convention at the Eagle Square last weekend that you handed to President Buhari a robustly healthy economy.
“To the same extent, this should also help to erase yet another false statement by Senator Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi, the Caretaker Chairman of the party, to the effect that under the previous administration there was money but now things are very hard.
“Let me start by reasserting an obvious statement, which is that the President Muhammadu Buhari administration was handed an economy ravaged by years of mismanagement and corruption.
“It is understandable that Dr Jonathan kept his comments short, because a cursory look at any sector clearly indicated that he and his Government presided over the most monumental and tragic economic mismanagement recorded in our national history.
“The oil sector boomed under his tenure, with oil prices as high as US$ 120 and peace in the Nigeria Delta. Nigeria earned unprecedented dollar revenues. Sadly, that is where the story turns sour. There is nothing to show for the revenues earned, no major capital project was completed, neither power generation, road development, rail or agriculture benefitted from the windfall earnings.
“Rather the administration presided over the diversion of oil revenues on a such a massive scale, that even without the protection now accorded to Whistle blowers, the then Central Bank Governor blew not only a whistle but a trumpet. He was hurriedly shown the door.
“Meanwhile, the acquisition by public officers and their cohorts of private jets, luxury yachts and the accumulation of expensive property portfolios world-wide continued unabated. Indeed the President once celebrated having the largest number of private jets, whilst our youth languished without jobs, our fields stood idle and our factories began the layoff of workers.
“Government simply reticulated oil revenue through personal spending by corrupt leaders, wasteful expenses and salaries. This was done rather than investing in what would grow the economy.
“Economies grow due to capital investment in assets like seaports, airports, power plants, railways, roads and housing. Nigeria cannot record a single major infrastructural project in the last 10 years. In short the money was mismanaged.
“Such was the looting that even the goose that was laying the golden egg was being systematically starved. The direct contractual costs of oil produced , in the form of cash calls, remained unpaid.
“The incoming , President Buhari’s welcome from the oil majors included demand for US$6Bn owed by Nigeria for oil that had already been sold or stolen.
“At the inception of the current administration, 21 States were unable to meet their salary bills and the spectre of workers arrears had commenced.
“The PDP solution was the raid the Ecological Fund and selectively grant N2Bn each to the PDP States. It was only aggressive borrowing by the Ministry of Finance under Dr Okonjo- Iweala that prevented Federal Government from also owing salaries.
“The economic wisdom of borrowing to pay recurrent bills is a questionable one, particularly as those paid would have included over 45,000 that have subsequently been removed by the Buhari led administration as ghost workers.
“It also included the lavish costs of chartering private jets, first class travel and other wasteful acts that have been eliminated under this administration.
“To compound the problem the government was borrowing heavily and owed contractors, and international oil companies. When this government took over we had accumulated debt back to the level it was before the Paris Club Debt Forgiveness.
“All these factors were building up to Nigeria heading for a major crisis if the price of oil fell. Nigeria did not have fiscal buffers to withstand an oil shock.
“The oil shock should and could have been foreseen. When Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS crisis started, it was clear that the United States of America wanted to cut off funds to terror groups by crashing the price of oil. When America granted permission for exploration of oil on land ( Shale) the warning signs were evident, but these were ignored by Nigeria’s economic managers.
“In summary Nigeria earned a lot of money when oil prices were high but there is nothing to show for it. Now oil prices have fallen we are suffering.
“The Buhari administration has taken a long term strategic view of supporting a stable naira on both the supply and demand sides. President Buhari has driven Import substitution to reduce demand for dollars to buy things we can produce thereby creating thousands of rural jobs in rice and other staples.
“In addition, there is a credible plan to diversity our revenue sources away from oil, with focus on export crops as well as solid minerals, with the release of US$100M fund to develop solid mineral extraction.”
With the resumption of the crossfire between the present administration and members of the major opposite party, spearheaded by the former President, it is becoming glaring that the race for 2019 has begun.
But Nigerians are wiser and before informed now and would be very difficult to mislead for upcoming general elections.
