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Tag: President Muhammadu Buhari

  • Abia APC to cash in on Buhari’s visit

    As part of his desire to get to the electorate across the 36 states of the federation, the campaign tour of President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday, January 29, hit Abia State. Sunny Nwankwo, who was at the Enyimba Stadium, venue of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential rally filed the report.

    On Friday January, 11 the Governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr. Uche Sampson Ogah flagged off his campaign rally which saw the Umuahia Township Stadium in the state capital of about 5000 capacity filled to the brim with many who were in anticipation of seeing Mr. President waiting anxiously even outside the stadium.

    At the venue, it was expected that the President and other members of the party would be in the state with the vice President, Prof. Yemi Osibanjo.

    Unfortunately, because of the tight schedules of both the President and his vice, they couldn’t make it, except the National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole who came with a few national officers of the party.

    The ripple caused by the absence of the President was hijacked by the ruling party in the state who claimed that President Muhammadu Buhari’s absence at the rally was a clear indication of his jittery that Abia is a PDP state.

    They equally mocked that the President’s absence was also because he wasn’t at home with the choice of Ogah as the guber candidate of the party.

    And when the news came that Buhari was visiting Abia on Tuesday, January 29, many rumoured that the President was not going to come. This is even as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Monday night issued a mini sit-at-home in Aba in protest of the president’s visit.

    The story changed when the President visited the commercial city for his campaign tour as Abians and supporters of APC from the seventeen local government areas of the state as the campaign train of President Muhammadu Buhari visited the state ahead of the February 16, presidential poll.

    This is however contrary to the sit-at-home orders of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) who asked Abians to observe a mini sit-at-home from 6am to 4pm Tuesday, in protest of the visit of the president.

    President Buhari came in the company of former governors of Abia State; Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu and Ogbonnaya Onu (Minister of Science and Technology), Senator Ken Nnamani, Otunba Niyi Adebayo, former Governor of Ekiti State, Senator Chris Ngige, National chairman of APC; Adams Oshiomhole, the lawmaker representing Isiukwuato/Umunneochi Federal Representatives, Hon. Nkeiruka Onyejiocha, former Minister of Labour and Productivity, Hon. Emeka Wogu, Senator Nkechi Nwaogu among others.

    Speaking at the event, President Buhari vowed to continue to tackle infrastructural problems in Nigeria and to ensure that Nigerians do their businesses without stress.

    The president who maintained that businesses would be improved as soon as infrastructure challenges of the country was tackled, said that despite the limited resources available to his Government and total fall in oil revenue, his government have been able to justify their promises to Nigerians and are ready to do more when given the mandate to continue in power.

    He urged all the people of Abia State to ensure that APC is voted for in the forthcoming elections to enable them continue the fight against corruption, infrastructural decay and ensure adequate security for proper management of the country.

    In his words: “I’m impressed with all the speakers because they’ve articulated what this administration is able to do. When we came in, we approached governance with three point agenda of security, economy and fight against corruption.

    “We tried to justify these by trying our best within the time available to us from 2015 to now with the resources available to us. You can all recall that the production of 2.4 million barrel per day, was cut short to half a million barrel per day. In the world market which is outside our control, the cost of petroleum per barrel went down from 40, 38, 28 dollars per barrel.

    “It is in this context that I want you to see how this administration has been committed to development of this country. Upon all these, we are doing the roads now, we are doing the railways which was neglected and virtually killed and we are doing power which is one of the projects I’ve came here to commission today.

    “I assure that if we get infrastructure correct; the roads, the railways and power, Nigerians will mind their businesses. It all depends who is in the Government. We have identified this and we are committing available resources to make sure we get the infrastructure right and we are doing as much as possible to secure the country so that we can properly manage it. I thank you for your commitment and I expect you to this time around, vote APC.”

    APC National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole who could not hide his joy over the reception that Buhari got in the state said that it was an indication that Abians have embraced the change mantra of the APC administration, stressing that the Buhari government has done well in the southeast geo-political zone through some of the completed and ongoing developmental projects the APC government is doing in the zone.

    Oshiomhole, who blamed the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for years of decay in the southeast despite the support that the southeast gave to PDP, urged the people of the state and the southeast not use 2019 to correct the mistakes of 2015.

    He said: “I’m very happy at the testimonies I’ve heard today about what this administration has done in Igboland and Abia State in particular. You can bury the truth ten meters deep, but you cannot kill the truth.

    “The truth is that in this state, PDP has governed for 19 years just as they controlled the country for 16 years. In those 16 years, this part of the country that was most loyal and committed to voting PDP was abandoned and Federal dual carriage road in the zone was turned to a cassava farm.

    “No one could commute from Aba to Port Harcourt. Everything was destroyed under PDP. My message is simple, the beauty of Nigerian democracy is that if you elect by mistake, it cannot last for more than four years. The last mistake of 2015 must now be corrected in 2019.

    “What we need in leadership are men and women who can serve Nigeria as their constituency. The development literature of the Federal Government in Southeast is very clear. It’s not rocket science. The Ariaria International Market Power Plant is there for all to see. The basis for sustainable economy is to build durable infrastructure and President Buhari is ensuring that.”

    Also speaking, a Chieftain of APC and former governor of the state, Dr. Orji Uzor-Kalu lambasted the PDP led administration in the state for what he termed as total neglect of infrastructure in the state and none payment  salaries and  pensions which he said has left many people who served the state with all their hearts in perpetual poverty.

    Kalu, who is the Senatorial candidate of APC for Abia North District also blasted former president Olusegun Obasanjo for his constant criticism of President Muhammadu Buhari.

    “I always call the PDP administration in Abia State liars because in this state, they rumoured that I was dead and gone and I’m alive today to the glory of God. Again I call them liars because they always pay Abia civil servants on radio.

    “When I was Governor, there was free education, our darling team Enyimba which was why I built this stadium became champions of Africa twice. In my days, workers and pensioners never begged for their monies.

    “I heard a man called Olusegun Obasanjo attacking Mr. President and this man Obasanjo forgot that it was him that brought corruption to Nigeria as a president.

    “He was the first President who started thwarting democratic processes in Nigeria. My Problem with him was when he called me and some other persons to support his third tenure bid and I refused and urged others never to accept it. He turned himself into a dictator. How can someone compare Obasanjo and Buhari? Buhari wants the Judiciary to be perfectly independent.

    “The judges in my state told me that they are at the process of receiving their monies directly from Abuja. Since I left office as governor, we never heard roads in Abia because subsequent administrations left Abia to decay.

    “They’ve told a lot of lies about APC in Abia and come the 16th of February, we shall test the popularity of every party in this soil. Uche Ogah has been tested in the private sector and he won and he’ll win squarely here. President Buhari has no comparison and Abia will give him 70 percent vote in Abia State,” he said.

    The APC gubernatorial candidate, Dr. Uche Ogah, APC Governorship candidate in Abia State said that he would invite Julius Berger Construction Company into the state within the first days of his assumption of office.

    Ogah who stated that he would correct the 16years mal-administration of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state within two years of his administration, stated that the president would come back to the state to commission projects within the six months he is elected sworn into power.

    He urged the president to disregard any information that there is another party in Abia capable of winning elections outside APC. He declared Abia as an APC state.

    “Abia people have resolved to unanimously move to APC and there is no other party that can stop it. You’ll get our votes in Abia and the mistake of 2015 will never repeat. We shall be first in giving you votes. We’ve felt your love through numerous Federal Government projects here.

  • Choose wisely, Buhari advises Nigerians

    President Muhammadu Buhari has advised Nigerians to choose wisely as they go out and vote in the 2019 Presidential Elections.

    He urged Nigerians to make a decision that will consolidate growth for the country.

    He made this appeal during his nationwide broadcast to Nigerians on Thursday evening, In Abuja.

    The President assured Nigerians that a free, fair and credible election is guaranteed under his administration.

    According to Buhari: “In making your choice this time, please ask yourself whether, and in what ways, others will do anything different to address the issues of Agriculture, Infrastructure, Security, Good Governance and Fighting Corruption. If they are only hoping to do what we are already doing successfully, we are clearly your preferred choice. Think carefully and choose wisely. This time, it is a choice about consolidating on growth for Jobs and Prosperity

    Speaking on work done by his admistration in the last three years, Buhari mentioned that although the nation had revenue shortages caused by major drop in international oil prices, the government managed to fulfill their promises of improving the country’s security which was a setback to the national development.

     “The damage that insecurity and corruption have done, over time, to our collective livelihood is incalculable. However, it is pleasing to note that our frontal attack on these twin evils is gaining momentum and bringing about visible progress,” he added.

    Furthermore, he mentioned that the country is back on the path of steady growth and out of recession completely. He said the government has embarked on several projects that include manufacturing, mining and agriculture which would lead to creation of major jobs, thereby improving the efficiency of the country’s industries.

    However, he said “we believe that Governments cannot simply proclaim jobs into existence. Job creation will only expand as a result of economic policies that enable the private sector to flourish, and this is the approach our Administration has taken.”

    Buhari told Nigerians that” the country is back on the path of steady growth and out of recession completely. The government has embarked on several projects that include manufacturing, mining and agriculture which would lead to creation of major jobs, thereby; improving the efficiency of the country’s industries.”

  • Buhari’s last minute campaign full of fabrications, false claims, says PDP

    The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has described President Muhammadu Buhari’s speech on Thursday as a last gasp of a drowning administration.

    In a statement on Thursday by the spokesman for the PDP, Kola Ologbondiyan, the party said the President’s speech was laced with fabrications and false performances claims, “characteristic of a failed leader, who has been rejected by the people”.

    The statement said, “It rather too late in the day for President Buhari to redeem himself with an academic speech as Nigerians, having moved ahead with the people’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar, are no longer ready to listen to his list of false promises and a  long claim of non-existent achievements.

    “It is ludicrous that at a time President Buhari should be remorseful and apologize for his failures that led to the biting economic hardship, hunger, job losses, killings and escalated bloodletting in our country, under his watch, he chose to engage in a last-minute attempt to sway Nigerians with falsehood.

    “Nigerians watched a President Buhari, who, having seen the handwriting on the wall, struggled with false economic growth figures and sought to blackmail the people with claims of non-existent food security and false assurances of safety in a nation heavily plagued by unemployment, loss of jobs, poverty as well as escalated insurgency and banditry.

    Read also: Election: Police deploy 55 CPs to States

    “Nigerians watched as President Buhari claimed a rise in foreign reserves but failed to accept responsibility for the huge rise in our nation’s debt and the fact that our nation has become the poverty capital of the world.

    “Furthermore, how would President Buhari want anybody to take his assurance of safety of members of global democratic institutions working for peaceful elections in our country after his presidency threatened the international community and endorsed the threats by Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai, that such foreigners will return to their country in body bags.

    “The PDP counsels President Buhari to note that he has come to the end of the road and that Nigerians are no longer with him. He should, therefore, end all his rigging plots and allow Nigerians to rebuild our nation under the leadership of Atiku Abubakar, whom they have reached a consensus to vote in as the next President of our country.

    “After all, he will not be the first President to lose in an election”

  • Keep trust or quit, Buhari tells public officials

    President Muhammadu Buhari on Thursday in Katsina warned public officials, particularly those elected and appointed into office, that they must keep public trust or leave.

    The President spoke at the palace of Emir of Katsina, Alhaji Abdulmumini Kabir, as he arrived to an epic reception in his hometown for the grand finale of the APC presidential campaign rally before the elections on Saturday.

    The President had earlier visited all the other 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

    In a statement by the Senior Special Assistant on Media and publicity, Garba Shehu, the President said “Those who betray the people’s trust, we will not spare them, they would be fished out and dealt with.”

    President Buhari told the Emir and members of the Emirate Council that the promises he made before his election in 2015 have been met, adding with certainty that all he needed was a second term and would not ask for more.

    “There is hope in the future of this great country,” the President said, appealing to all Nigerians to ensure a peaceful conduct of the election.

    The President highlighted his administration’s achievements in infrastructure development including improved power supply, as well as empowering artisans, craftsmen, tailors, barbers and battery chargers to increase output and better their own lives.

    “The local production of rice and the increased agricultural production have helped the country to achieve food self-sufficiency,” he said.

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    The President thanked the people of his home state for the “unprecedented” turnout of men and women from both rural and urban areas and the intensity of support shown by them.

    The President said it was humbling to see a mammoth crowd line the streets of Katsina and fill the Karakanda Stadium to see and listen to him give a scorecard of his stewardship in the last three and half years.

    In his remarks, the Emir of Katsina noted that the massive support, enthusiastic following and the hero’s welcome received by the President was a clear testimony of the people’s approval for his leadership, personality and integrity.

    He said no other major political figure in Nigeria was anywhere near the President in popular acceptance, adding that honesty can never be defeated.

    The Emir pledged 100 percent Katsina support to the President’s re-election.

  • Fears over Obasanjo’s link with foreign poll observers

    There is anxiety in political circles over the composition of some of the international observer missions deployed in the country for the general elections. The presidential election is slated for Saturday.

    The popular thinking is that former President Olusegun Obasanjo may have been influential to the composition and emergence of some of the chairmen of some of the observer groups.

    The ex-President, who is backing former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, is suspected to have sold an agenda to these observers, based on a  perception of what a source described as a “willy-nilly” regime change.

    Some of the groups are suspected to be in the country to “work to the answer” by prejudging the election as “not free, fair and credible” — a perception that has been debunked.

    But it was gathered that the Federal Government is “paying keen interest” to their activities.

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has accredited 144 observer groups, including 116 domestic and 28 international teams.

    The foreign groups are:  African Bar Association;  African Parliament of The Civil Society; African Union; British High Commission; Democrat Union of Africa; ECOWAS; Elections Cameroon, Republic of Cameroon; and the  Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa.

    Theere are also Embassy of France; Embassy of Japan; Embassy of the Arab Republic of Egypt; Embassy of The Republic of Korea; European Centre for Electoral Support; European Union; German International Agency;  High Commission of Canada;  and the International Foundation For Electoral System.

    The International Human Rights Commission; International Peace Commission; International Republican Institute; the National Democratic Institute; the Network for Solidarity; and the Empowerment and Transformation for All were also accredited to cover the elections.

    Other international observers are Nigerians in Diaspora Organisation; Pan African Women Projects;  Pan African Youth Training and Enlightenment Centre;  Queen Zara Foundation for Human Resources Development; The Commonwealth; and the United States Embassy.

    Some of the observer groups are being led by some ex-leaders, including  ex-Tanzanian President Dr. Jakaya Kikwete (Commonwealth Observer Group); former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn (African Union);  ex-Liberian President Ellen  Johnson-Sirleaf (ECOWAS); and Maria Arena (the Chief Observer, European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) to Nigeria).

    Ms Arena is a member of the European Parliament from Belgium. Kikwete is “a well known friend of Obasanjo” a source said, adding: “He was regular at the Ota Farm House Dialogue in the eighties. They even worked together at the African Union on the NEPAD programme.

    Obasanjo is also believed to be close to Mrs Johnson-Sirleaf. “We all know Nigeria’s role in Liberia during the Obasanjo Presidency,” the source said, pleading not to be named because he is not permitted to talk to the media.

    Another source spoke of an intelligence report that some of the observer groups are in Nigeria to work in line with “pre-determined agenda” of their countries. Besides, the source noted that it was wrong for some ambassador to be moving round the country on “election tourism” without the foreign minister’s permission.

    The Federal Government had last week raised the alarm that the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party( PDP) was planning to send a delegation to some western capitals.

    A source, who spoke in confidence, said: “The security report available to the government indicated that some foreign observer groups are already biased and they are in the country to act out a script already written for them.

    “Some countries already accused of interfering in the internal affairs of Nigeria have exerted much influence on the observer missions to discredit the poll.

    “These groups have prejudged the election as not free, fair and credible. This is going to be their ultimate verdict, irrespective of what the Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC) does.

    “The most disturbing in the security report is the fact that some chairmen and members of these observer groups have links with a former President who is suspected to have influenced their choices for a purpose.

    “A few of them had been visiting the ex-President in the past and some were even helped to power through the international goodwill of the ex-leader.”

    The intelligence source added that some of the observers may have been playing into the hands of those plotting “an electoral stalemate and drag Nigeria into a political crisis to put an interim government in place”.

    “They are ready to do whatever they can to get President Muhammadu Buhari out of power.”

    Responding to a question, the source said the surveillance on some observer groups showed that they were violating the code of conduct put in place by INEC.

    On its website, INEC says: “All accredited observers shall abide by the code of conduct for election observers, which is available for download on the INEC website (www.inecnigeria.org).

    “INEC reserves the right to cancel and withdraw the accreditation of any organisation if its members or agents breach the code of conduct.’’

    But some missions have already assured Nigerians that they will be impartial.

    The  Chair of the Commonwealth Observer Group, Dr. Jakaya Kiwete, on Monday said the mission will be impartial in its assessment of the elections.

    He said the group will  issue an interim statement on its preliminary findings on the first set of elections on February 18.

    He said the18-man team of observers was  drawn from Africa, Asia, Europe, the Caribbean and the Pacific.

    They were deployed to observe the opening, voting, closing, counting and the results management processes.

    This is the sixth time a Commonwealth Observer Group will be observing elections in Nigeria since 1999.

    Kikwete, a former President of Tanzania,  made the clarifications  in a statement in Abuja against the backdrop of anxiety over the roles of the group and others.

    He  said: “Our Group was constituted following an invitation from the Independent National Election Commission, drawing together 18 eminent persons from across the different regions of the Commonwealth, including Africa, Asia, Europe, the Caribbean and the Pacific.

    “We come in our own individual capacities, bringing a wide range of expertise in the areas of election administration, political development, law, human rights, civil society, gender, youth, as well as media.

    “As a group, we are here to observe the organisation and conduct of the election process as a whole, and will form an impartial and independent assessment of its credibility.

    “The Commonwealth Observer Group will consider the pre-election period, polling day itself, as well as the post-election period. Our main task is to assess whether the elections have been conducted according to the national, regional and international standards to which Nigeria has committed itself, including its own laws.

    “On election day, we will observe the opening, voting, closing, counting and the results management processes.”

    The group will submit a final report to the Commonwealth Secretary-General and, thereafter, share with the Government of Nigeria, INEC, political parties, Commonwealth governments, then make it public.

    The group expressed hope that its presence will confirm the unwavering solidarity of the Commonwealth with Nigeria as the country conducts the elections.

    The group however encouraged all citizens to “play their part in ensuring peaceful and credible elections this weekend.”

    The Head of EU EOM, Maria Arena, said: “It is a great honour for me to lead this important EU Election Observation Mission to Nigeria. I am hopeful that our observation will provide a meaningful contribution to the electoral and democratic process in Nigeria.”

    In a statement, the EU EOM said: “The EU only deploys an election observation mission when it is invited to do so by the authorities of a country.  The EU has been invited to observe all of the general elections in Nigeria since 1999. Thus, this is the sixth time the EU is observing elections in Nigeria.

    “The Independent National Electoral Commission invited the EU to deploy an observation mission for the 2019 general elections.

    “EU election observation missions give commentary and analysis, and make recommendations about the electoral process. EU election observation missions are impartial, do not interfere in the electoral process, and operate according to a strict code of conduct.”

    But the Buhari Media Organisation( BMO) has cautioned Kikwete against being used by Obasanjo former President.

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    A statement  by the Chairman, Niyi Akinsiju and Secretary of BMO,  Cassidy Madueke, the group said: “Many Nigerians are worried that the head of the Commonwealth observer group may be swayed by Obasanjo’s skewed pre-election position that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) does not have the integrity to conduct free, fair and credible elections.

    “This concern, we know, is as a result of the long-standing friendship between the two former Presidents which began long before Kikwete became the head of the Tanzania government in 2005. But we are encouraged by the values that the Commonwealth holds sacrosanct, and the fact that the head of the election observer team has a track record as a peacemaker, especially in the Great Lakes region of East Africa.

    “So we hope that Kikwete would resist the pressure that will surely come from former President Obasanjo who believes that he has a divine role to determine the winner of the Presidential election.”

  • APC, PDP in two-horse race: How the states may vote

    The presidential election holds on Saturday. Although over 60 parties are participating in the poll, from all indications, it is a two-horse race between President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Here is an updated analysis of how the states may vote. Yusuf Alli, Sam Egburonu and Dare Odufowokan report.

    NORTH EAST ZONE

    BAUCHI STATE

     

    Ordinarily, this is an electoral fortress for Buhari who garnered 931,598 votes in the state in 2015 compared with a paltry 86,085 votes received by ex-President Goodluck Jonathan. But the coalition which brought Governor Mohammed Abubakar to power during the last poll collapsed – leading to a major crack in APC and the dwindling of the party’s fortunes.

    Until Buhari and the APC pulled a fast one, the state was almost lost to the PDP going by massive defections from the ruling party to the opposition. Among those who left was the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara. Armed with an impressive war-chest, a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed, also revved up the PDP in the state with the choice of Baba Tella (a grassroots politician) as his running mate for the governorship race. The ex-minister, who is from Bauchi South Senatorial District like the governor might split the votes from the zone.Other factors in favour of the Bauchi PDP are Dogara (who commands the strong following among Christians and minorities in the state) and a former Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, Abdul Ningi.

    However, in recent weeks, Buhari and APC have embarked on a salvage mission which is paying off for the party. Apart from wooing ex-Governor Isa Yuguda to the ruling party, the President has also courted aformer National Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the immediate past Deputy National Chairman (North) of PDP, Sen. Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu. The major heavyweights in Bauchi politics are back in APC to give more bite to the campaign of the party.

    Verdict: Buhari to win.

     

    BORNO STATE

     

    In spite of the insurgency, Borno is still a stronghold of the APC and Buhari. The people of the state have undiluted loyalty to the president and his commitment to the war against Boko Haram has strengthened their political bond with him. The humble and unifying disposition of Governor Kashim Shettima in governing the state have also left APC more united for a straightforward victory at the polls. Initially, there were fears that the imposition of a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum as the APC governorship candidatemight create crisis, but the governor managed the stakeholders with maturity.The return of a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC, which he assisted to form, has been a game-changer which has left PDP in quandary.

    The seemingly intractable crisis in opposition party in the state has affected its fortunes. Since the ill-fated governorship primaries of the party, it has broken into two factions led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively. The PDP is not only in bad shape to promote its governorship candidate, Mohammed Alkali Imam, it is yet to win the confidence of the masses of the war-torn state. The defection of the highly-respected ex-Governor of old Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) from PDP to APC has made the victory of APC a fait accompli.There are 2,315,956 votes available in the state and APC may win with a landslide.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    YOBE STATE

     

    A politically homogenous enclave, Yobe State has been traditionally progressive since 1999. It has always voted against PDP despite its political transformation from All Peoples Party (APP) to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and APC.  The smooth transition of power laid down by the first civilian governor of the state, Senator Bukar Abba Ibrahim has helped in consolidating its progressive credentials.  The Kanuri-Fulani collaboration has made the state impregnable for the opposition. But the Kanuri have been governing the state since its creation.Although the PDP is rebranding itself with the emergence of Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum as its consensus gubernatorial candidate, the party is still weak. Its weakness was fueled by the crisis of confidence between ex-Minister of Police Affairs, Adamu Maina Waziri, who has been the sole gubernatorial flagbearer of the party since1999, and the current Senator representing Yobe South Senatorial Zone, Mohammed Hassan. They both emerged from parallel primaries.In 2015, APC received 446,265 votes as opposed to just 25,256 for the PDP. This pattern is set to repeated as Buhari’s appeal remains strong here.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    TARABA STATE

     

    This is one Northeastern state where analysts expect PDP to do well. Governor Darius Ishaku is still popular and former Minister of Defence, Lt. General Theophilus Danjuma who is the governor’s political godfather, remains highly influential. He has not hidden his opposition to a second term bid by Buhari.The security problems which the state underwent in the last three years with ethnic undertone have not helped electoral chances of the APC. The defection of ex-Minister of Women Affairs, Aishatu Jummai Alhassan from APC to United Democratic Party (UDP) has made the latter to lose its soul. The internal wrangling within APC has not put it ingood stead for next month’s election. Still, the massive turnout for last Thursday’s APC presidential rally in Jalingo, the state capital, has become a talking point. While the PDP is still expected to prevail here, the ruling party would give it a close fight. In 2015, the difference between the parties was roughly 50,000 votes. PDP raked in 310,800, while APC managed 261, 326 votes. A re -enactment is likely.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    GOMBE STATE

     

    Initially, it was thought that the contest between APC and PDP in Gombe State would be a keen one. The outgoing Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo is trying to assert himself as the new kingmaker.  The party on October 3 lost Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna who defected from PDP to APC. Gwamna’s parting of ways with PDP has made the race keener.For the presidential poll, ethnic fault lines will be sole determinants. The ethnic groups in the state are Fulani (Northern part); Tangale (Southern part); Hausa, Tera, Waja, Bolewa, and Kanuri. Both Buhari and Atiku are of Fulani stock.

    However, Buhari’s mesmerising connection with the masses of the people would see him win the state handily again. In 2015, APC polled 361,245 votes as against 96,873 for PDP. Watchers of politics in the state expect a similar thing on Saturday.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    ADAMAWA STATE

     

    Adamawa has been a PDP State since 1999 until the APC’s 2015 bandwagon altered its political focus. The next poll in the state will draw more attention than elsewhere because the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar is from there; Buhari married from the state to make the First Lady, Hajiya Aisha Buhari, equally a factor in the presidential race.

    The likely factors in the state are religion, ethnicity, security challenges, the political elite, money, and good governance. If performance is anything to reckon with, Governor Jibrilla Umaru Bindow’s achievements will make it an easy ride for APC.

    Although Atiku attempted to install a governorship candidate in 2015 under the banner of APC, he failed in his bid because Bindow defeated his preferred candidate twice at the primaries.

    Expect a major electoral battle here. Adamawa may be too close to call.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NORTH CENTRAL ZONE

    KWARA STATE

     

    In 2015, President Buhari, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the presidential election in Kwara State, polling 302,146 votes, while the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP polled 132, 602 votes. It was the first time the state voted against the presidential candidate of the PDP since 2003 , and the party lost to APC with almost 200, 000 votes.

    Today, the state is a major focus point following the return of Senate President Bukola Saraki to the PDP. It is also attracting attention because the threat to the status quo in Kwara politics, as symbolized by Saraki dynasty, is real today more than ever before. The rate at which the APC’s ‘O To Ge’ (Yoruba for Enough is Enough) mantra caught fire like dry leaves in the harmattan, is reportedly a source of worry for the Senate President and his political family.

    The emergence of the APC’s candidate, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, from a noble family like the Sarakis has changed the usual scenario where Saraki would confidently boast of the support of the royals and elites in the state. Today, the creme de la creme in Ilorin are sharply divided in their support for APC and PDP ahead of the general election on account of Abdulrazaq’s candidature.

    Despite the power of incumbency and over reliance on money politics, it won’t be an easy ride for Saraki in Kwara Central District. In the last one month, the Senate President has retreated to fault lines for political survival and to retool his campaign machinery, but the people of Ilorin Emirate who dominate the district, are now sharply divided for and against him.

    The exodus of his loyalists and strategists to APC; the “O To Ge” (Enough is Enough) revolution; and the imposition of PDP governorship candidate, Razaq Atunwa, on the party.

    Factors that may swing electoral behavior this time include the looming protest votes from Offa and its environs over the recent bank robbery which claimed many lives; the spiral effect of losing Irepodun/ Ekiti/ Isin, Oke-Ero Federal Constituency to APC; and the neglect of the district in the scheme of things. The Ibolo, the Igbomina and the Ekiti in this district naturally detest the politics of the Sarakis.

    Against this backdrop, the relative strengths of the APC and PDP in the different senatorial districts is likely to impact the outcome of the February 16 contest. As things stand the race between Atiku and Buhari in Kwara is too close to call.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    KOGI STATE

     

    It came to many as a surprise in 2015, when INEC declared Buhari of the APC as the winner of the presidential election conducted in the state. In an unexpected victory, he won by 60.3 % of the total votes. It was unexpected largely because Kogi at the time was governed by a PDP administration that appeared ready to be re-elected.

    But as the February 16 date of the next presidential contest draws nearer, it is uncertain if the APC under Governor Yahaya Bello can repeat the winning streak of the last general election in the state. Surprisingly, the PDP in the state appears to have woken up from its slumber, ready to chase Buhari’s men out of town if they are not careful.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    BENUE STATE

     

    At the onset of the 2015 presidential election, Benue State was one of the few remaining states through which the then President Jonathan and the PDP were hoping to defeat the APC and its presidential candidate, Buhari. Most pundits gave the state to PDP. Surprisingly, and unfortunately for the PDP, the people of the state opted to follow the APC.

    Today, the two frontline political parties have huge tasks on their hands in their bid to take their campaign to the nooks and crannies of 23 local government areas in the state. The politics has largely been personality-based, but has also been coloured by economics, ethnicity and religion in the light of the herdsmen killings witnessed in the last two to three years.

    The scenario in the state is being monitored because the three senators from the state, who are leaders with massive support in the grassroots, are treading different political paths.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    PLATEAU STATE

     

    Few days to the next presidential election, the political climate in Plateau State is as uncertain as it was in 2015, but Governor Simon Lalong’s leadership qualities have reunited and restored peace to the state. The main issue in Plateau for February poll is how to curtail the security challenge in the state. The people of the state are divided in their opinion as regard how well the APC administration has handled the menace of killer herdsmen across the country.

    Another issue playing a key role is religion which ex-Governor Jonah Jang has exploited in the past to sustain PDP. Being a Christian-dominated state, Buhari’s candidacy is seen from the prism of Hausa-Fulani /Muslim sentiments. But that approach may no longer work for the PDP as neither Buhari nor Atiku is a Christian this time around.

    To most observers, the presidential race might be neck and neck with PDP having a little edge.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NIGER STATE

     

    In spite of the fact that Governor Abubakar Sani Bello has a lot of political baggage that could make him lose his re-election bid, the goodwill of Buhari is his asset. The president is still adored in the state more than his PDP challenger, Atiku.

    Despite the well-advertised opposition of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida to Buhari’s re-election bid, the incumbent’s lopsided win in 2015 is expected to be repeated come February 16. Four years ago, he received 657,678 votes – dwarfing the PDP’s 149,222 votes. Our investigations show that the president’s popularity is still holding steady.

    A former PDP commissioner in the state said: “There is no doubt that Buhari will win Niger State. This has been his political terrain and voters in the state have not changed in following him.”

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    NASARAWA STATE

     

    During the 2015 presidential election, the then President Jonathan of the PDP, surprisingly won the presidential election in Nasarawa State, defeating main challenger Buhari of the APC. It was a surprise because the state has always been a stronghold of Buhari’s even when he had no formidable political platform to contest on.

    Not even the widespread opinion that Governor Tanko Al-Makura has done well in office had changed that status quo.

    Al-Makura’s decision to stamp his feet and allow power to shift from Nasarawa South District to Nasarawa North District for fairness and equity has deflated the anticipated winning formula of the opposition. This has in turn shored up the popularity of the ruling party in the north where the PDP held sway before now. This is expected to impact in favor of President Buhari in the presidential election.

    The harmony within the rank and file of APC in the state notwithstanding, it is still uncertain if Buhari can floor Atiku in the state.

    Verdict: Battleground

     

    NORTH WEST ZONE

    KANO STATE

     

    If there is any state giving PDP a headache, it is Kano which has been a hard nut to crack. In the heat of the recent gale of defections, the opposition had toyed with the idea of taking over the state which has about 5,457,747 votes in its kitty.

    The PDP has employed all sorts of political gimmicks but it suffered a big setback in the way it conducted the governorship primaries that led to the coronation of Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf, a son-in-law to ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. Following the loss of the APC presidential ticket by Kwankwaso, he left the party with his disenchanted supporters.

    But that triggered a counter reaction: the mass movement of ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and his supporters from PDP to APC. It was the last straw that broke the carmel’s back. Others who have deserted PDP are Prof. Hafiz Abubakar, a former Deputy Governor to Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, a former Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority, Aminu Dabo; the immediate past National Treasurer of PDP, Bala Mohammed Gwagwarwa; Security Adviser to Kwankwaso, Gen. Danjuma Dambazzau (rtd); Sen. Isa Zarewa; and Mu’azu Magaji Dan Sarauniya, who was a former Senior Special Assistant to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan on SURE-P.

    But in an embarrassing turn of events, almost all of aforementioned who initially left APC with Kwakwaso, have since beat a retreat to the ruling party.

    No doubt, APC has a robust edge over PDP in Kano because of Buhari’s factor, the influx of new influential defectors, and the incumbency influence of Governor Ganduje who is more popular among the masses and Islamic clerics.

    Since 2003, Buhari has never lost in Kano State and this year’s poll will not be an exception. What remains to be seen if he can once again receive the 1,903,999 votes he got in 2015. PDP only managed 215,779 votes in that contest.

    Kwankwaso is now on the opposing side but he will be fighting against the combined forces of Buhari, Ganduje, Shekarau and his erstwhile lieutenants. It is not looking good for the PDP and Atiku.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    ZAMFARA STATE

     

    The irreconcilable intra-party crisis in the APC in Zamfara State almost left PDP waiting to be crowned as the next ruling party until the Appeal court gave APC a lifeline yesterday by recognising its primary election earlier nullified by the High Court. Governor Abdulaziz Yari and all the APC stakeholders threw decorum to the wind and the center did not hold again. Not even the intimidating presence of two ex-governors (Sen. Ahmed Sani Yerima and Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi) and the Minister of Defence, Gen. Mansur Dan Ali could help find a solution to the division.

    Four years ago Buhari received 612,202 votes to 144,833 for the PDP’s Jonathan.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    KADUNA STATE

     

    The political scenario in Kaduna State is complex in view of some dynamics in the last three and a half years.  The tense security situation in Southern Kaduna and Birnin Gwari axis has compounded the political permutations. The issues beclouding politics in the state are performance;  security challenge; the prolonged Hausa-Fulani/ Southern Kaduna cat and mouse relationship; religious factor especially mutual suspicion by Muslims and Christians; the rising Shiites clan and its attendant grave security implications; and distrust among political elites.

    Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai has controversially trudged on since 2015, his greatest asset is the enthronement of new governance modules which have reduced waste in government. Apart from pruning the size of his cabinet, he has cut frivolous expenses and his performance is appreciable. But his garrulous, uncompromising and dictatorial leadership style at a point alienated him from the masses.

    There are no old politicians in Kaduna State who are with him.  Members of the old brigade who were with him in 2015 like Suleiman Hunkuyi, Isa Ashiru, Yaro Makama, and Ambassador Sule Buba are now in PDP against him. These old hands have teamed up with ex-Vice President Namadi Sambo, a former National Chairman of PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, and ex-Governor Ramalan Yero.

    But, Buhari is likely to retain his grip on the state albeit with a lesser margin in February.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    KATSINA STATE

     

    Despite the formidable nature of PDP in Katsina State, APC would still emerge victorious because of the Buhari factor. The people of the state want power to continue to reside in their domain for the next four years. The party boasts of a majority in the House of Assembly, it also controls all available seats in the National Assembly. Of recent, the APC won by-elections conducted in the state.

    Although ex-Governor Ibrahim Shema and the PDP governorship candidate, Garba Yakubu Lado, are pulling some strings, they are unlikely to erode Buhari’s grip on his home territory. Four years ago, he polled 1,345,441 votes here to PDP’s paltry 98,937. The landslide victory of 2015 is likely to be repeated on February 16.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    KEBBI STATE

     

    The sterling performance of Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State in the last three and a half years has surpassed all permutations. He has brought his experience in the private sector to bear in managing the economy of the state. His focus on agriculture has led to massive employment and a rice boom. His ability to bring more supporters into APC, especially ex-Governor Saidu Dakingari and his deputy, Ibrahim Aliyu has sealed whatever hope was left for PDP.

    The recent attacks on the late Emir of Gwandu by the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar and the PDP over the 53 suit cases ferried into the country in 1984, have made things difficult for the main opposition party.

    Buhari won handsomely here in 2015, receiving 567,883 votes to the PDP’s 100,972 votes. He remains hugely popular in the state and is expected to win comfortably.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    SOKOTO STATE

     

    The battle in Sokoto State is between Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and his estranged godfather, ex-Governor Aliyu Wammako – with each of them having stakeholders in the state split between them.

    Besides his solid structure, some of those with Wammako are some ex-ministers, lawmakers and APC leaders including Umar Nagwari Tambuwal, Muhammed Maigari Dingyadi, Yusuf Suleiman, Abubakar Shehu Wurno, Jibril Gada, among others. His asset, however, is his closeness to the grassroots.

    The APC had an impressive campaign outing in the state recently and look set to repeat the comfortable victory of 2015. Back then, Buhari received 671, 926 votes compared to 152,199 votes for PDP. Nothing on the ground suggests that this pattern would change dramatically.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    JIGAWA STATE

     

    What is at stake in Jigawa State is a struggle for the soul of the state between ex- Governor Sule Lamido and Governor Abubakar Badaru whose rice production revolution has empowered many citizens. His problems are the alienated political elite and some royal fathers who are not enjoying as much largesse as they used to do in the past.

    Both APC and PDP attracted massive crowds when their presidential campaigns stopped over in the state capital, Dutse. However, for Atiku to win here, he would have to cover the margin of over 600,000 votes by which Buhari defeated Jonathan in 2015.

    Back then APC polled 885,988 votes to the PDP’s 142,904 votes. That seems, at this point, an insurmountable objective.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    SOUTHWEST ZONE

    OGUN STATE

     

    The presidential contest in Ogun state is already showing flashes of being an unusual one, but the result is most likely to be same as it was in 2015 when the APC defeated PDP by a hundred thousand votes. Buhari polled 308, 290 votes while former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP took 207, 950 out of 559, 613 total votes cast. According to formal results announced, Buhari won in 13 local governments while PDP won in 7 local government areas.

    Save for a few changes expected to happen here and there, the outcome of the next presidential election in Ogun State may still remain close to what obtained in 2015. In spite of the support currently being enjoyed by Atiku and the PDP from former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Buhari will still win the presidential election in Egbaland convincingly.

    With the APC and APM in the state working towards the victory of President Buhari, and the two factions of the PDP unable to come together and galvanize their members towards the presidential election, the APC is looking good to win the presidential election in the state even with a wider margin that it posted in 2015.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    LAGOS STATE

     

    Not minding the threat to “take over Lagos” by the opposition PDP, it is convenient to predict that APC will win convincingly in Lagos State at the presidential poll. Pundits are even of the opinion that the opposition PDP will perform poorer than it did in 2015 when it gave the ruling APC a good fight in all the elections.

    APC scored 792, 460 to defeat the PDP which had 632, 327 in the presidential race back then.

    Although the PDP governorship candidate is working had to garner the votes for Atiku, the personality of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, national leader of the APC, and the recent restructuring carried out within the party, will do the trick once again and Buhari will win more votes in Lagos. Also, unlike in 2015 when some fallouts of its party primaries caused serious frictions within its ranks, the APC is today more united that it was four years ago.

    Also working against the PDP in Lagos State is the loss of majority of its prominent leaders to the APC. Chieftains like Chief Mrs. Remi Adiukwu, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and its then state chairman, Moshood Salvador, are now in the APC ready to work for Buhari’s re-election. Even Chief Bode George, though still in the PDP and openly supporting Atiku, is on a self-imposed political holiday, leaving the party without a known leader in the state.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    OYO STATE

     

    APC won the presidential election in Oyo during the last presidential poll. APC scored 528, 620 while PDP got 303, 376. The state used to be the stronghold of the opposition PDP until recently. But today, majority of those chieftains who made the party tick in the state have jumped ship or gone into political oblivion, leaving the party in limbo.

    The likes of former governors Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala are no longer with the party. While Ladoja now leads the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) in the state, Alao-Akala is the gubernatorial candidate of the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Both leaders have also lost some of their chieftains to the ruling APC in recent times, especially Alao-Akala, who joined the APC briefly after dumping the PDP.

    Other erstwhile PDP top guns like former Senate Leader, Senator Teslim Folarin and former Secretary to the State Government, Chief Ayodele Adigun are now in the APC working for the success of its presidential candidate. Observers of the politics of the state say PDP in Oyo State is today a ghost of its glorious past and cannot put up any serious challenge to the victory of President Buhari on Saturday.

     

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    ONDO STATE

     

    In spite of the state not being under the control of the party, the then presidential candidate of the APC, Buhari was declared winner of the presidential election in Ondo State. He polled 299, 889 votes to beat former President Jonathan of the PDP, who got 251, 368 votes, according to results declared by INEC.

    The result came as a surprise to many pundits who had thought the PDP would ride on the popularity of the then governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, to clinch victory.

    The state is still firmly in the political grip of the ruling party under Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Political observers say the PDP which used to control the state until 2012, is struggling to stay alive even in Akure, the capital.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    OSUN STATE

     

    After giving the impression that it was ready to take over the political leadership of Osun State during the last governorship election in the Southwest state, the opposition PDP appears to be fading away from the political firmament of the state so soon. The party in Osun shocked many people when it almost snatched the governorship seat of the state from the ruling APC last year in a keenly contested election.

    The APC appears to be repositioning itself for new electoral challenges ahead. Governor Oyetola, who took over from Rauf Aregbesola has embarked on a number of fence-mending missions that analysts say are yielding fruits.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    EKITI STATE

     

    In 2015, PDP won the presidential election in Ekiti State. Today, the scenario is totally different. Kayode Fayemi of the APC is governor and the federal government is also under Buhari’s APC.

    The PDP in the state is now divided into two groups led by ex-Governor Ayo Fayose and Senate Minority Leader Abiodun Olujimi. As it stands, the APC appears to have the advantage.

    VERDICT: Buhari

     

    SOUTHEAST ZONE

    ANAMBRA STATE

     

    Although Anambra State is currently governed by an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) government, a political party whose leader, Governor Willie Obiano currently supports APC presidential candidate, Buhari, we can report that the PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is better positioned to win in the state during this week’s presidential election.

    Since the death of APGA’s former Presidential candidate, Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, in 2011, the party had been aligning with the then ruling PDP in most of the presidential elections. So, though APGA has continuously governed the state, it has somehow remained largely a PDP state.

    PDP evidently has a boost because the former governor of the state, Peter Obi, is its vice presidential candidate. It is a fact that in Anambra, Obi is well loved and has incredible grassroots support. This, added to the sentiment that ‘PDP has fielded our own son’ will go a long way in securing a chunk votes for PDP’s Atiku.

    A major snag for PDP in the state, however, is that Governor Obiano, the estranged former political godson of Obi, is backing APC’s Buhari, a move his critics say is primarily to slight Obi. He is closely supported in this assignment by the senator representing Anambra Central Senatorial District, Senator Victor Umeh, also a former political ally of Obi. The governor and the former National Chairman of APGA are some of the forces that will battle Obi and PDP in this coming presidential election. How far they would go remains to be seen.

    It is, however, believed that with APGA’s alliance in Anambra State, APC chieftains like Senator Chris Ngige, the Minister of Labour and Employment will be further empowered to win more votes for APC and Buhari in this week’s presidential election.

    Besides the sentiment that “Obi is our son,” sources confirmed that the former governor enjoys much support from the people because of his achievements when he was governor. He is also known to be highly loved and supported by the Catholic and even Anglican faithful because of his unrivalled personal investment in the church while he was in power and ever since then.

    Besides the Church, Obi, according to sources, will garner massive votes from youths, most of who benefitted immensely from his support during his tenure as governor, when they were still in secondary schools or in the universities.

    Given these realities, it seems difficult to imagine that the Atiku/Obi ticket can lose in Anambra State, where Obi hails from, Obiano’s factor notwithstanding.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    ENUGU STATE

     

    In Enugu State, Atiku is poised to win in this week’s presidential election, notwithstanding the recent progress made by the APC in the PDP stronghold.

    Since the return of democracy in 1999, Enugu has remained a PDP state. In 2015, for example, PDP garnered 553,003 out of the total 573,173 viable votes cast in that year’s presidential election, leaving the other 13 political parties that contested that election to share the remaining 20,170 votes.

    The PDP, which has power of incumbency and age-long loyalty, has greater chances of winning in the state, not only because of the internal dynamics that still favours it but also because PDP’s Vice Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, from the neighbouring Anambra State, also enjoys wide acceptability in the state.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    ABIA STATE

     

    Abia State has been another PDP stronghold since 1999. But as we reported earlier, reports of under-performance or near total lack of dividends of democracy there have resulted to outcry from across the state for far reaching change.

    This feeling will ultimately affect the result of the forthcoming presidential election in the state. We gathered that most stakeholders are furious to note that Abia, though an oil-producing state, is today one of the least developed in the country, physical infrastructure wise, a development that has resulted in aggressive agitation for change of leadership. How that change will affect the result of this week’s presidential elections, promises to be intriguing.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    IMO STATE

     

    Imo is the only Southeast state currently under the leadership of an All Progressives Congress-led government. But following the intricate power struggle amongst its leaders, there is the fear that APC may not take it for granted that it would win the presidential race in the state. Unlike in Abia, where some analysts believe APGA may be persuaded to support either APC or PDP candidate, the political rivalries in Imo may make such a possibility more difficult. As at today, it is not yet certain which of the two leading presidential candidates Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, the APGA governorship candidate and his supporters will support. So, the two candidates, Buhari and Atiku may have to rely on the strength of their political parties and their individual popularities for victory.

    Whatever may be the case, the picture will certainly not be a repeat of 2015 scenario, where, out of the 702,964 valid votes, PDP, with the cooperation of APGA, garnered 559,185 votes, leaving only 133,253 votes for APC which eventually took the governorship election.

    This time, APC and PDP will have to fight hard to win the presidential election, but latest intrigues and inability of APC current leaders in the state to reconcile with Governor Okorocha, may neutralize incumbency factor, which would have worked in its favour. .

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    EBONYI STATE

     

    Ebonyi State has remained a PDP state since 1999 and there is no definitive factor that suggests there would be a change in this year’s presidential election. Of the 363,888 valid votes cast in the state in 2015, PDP, in collaboration with APGA, harvested a whopping 323,653 votes, leaving only 19,518 for APC, which came second.

    Observers said since Dave Umahi, the governorship candidate of PDP, cannot openly work against his party during the presidential election; his personal reverence for Buhari may not translate into significant votes.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE

    BAYELSA STATE

     

    Since 1999, Bayelsa has remained a PDP state. It produced the last president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and still boasts of PDP faithful at the grassroots.

    Out of the 367,067 valid votes cast in the state in 2015, PDP got 361,209 votes, leaving only 5,194 votes for APC, which came second.

    However, so much has happened in the state politically since then. For example, the competition during the January 9, 2016 governorship bye election, which followed the inconclusive substantive election held on December 5, 2015, confirmed the growing influence of APC in the state.

    At the end of the hot contest however, the incumbent governor and the candidate of PDP, Seriake Dickson, emerged the winner. Dickson polled 134,998 votes to defeat Timipre Sylva, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress who scored 86,852 votes.

    Also, the ruling PDP has been battling with some internal disagreements that have threatened its fortunes in this week’s presidential election. One of the issues that threatened the unity of the party in the state was the automatic return ticket ripples. Late last year for example, some concerned stakeholders of the party in the state had to call on the National Chairman of the party, Uche Secondus, to intervene in the internal crisis rocking the party to protect its chances in the 2019 elections. One of the groups, Bayelsa State PDP Stakeholders Forum (BSPSF), particularly made the appeal in a statement signed by its Chairman, Chief George Amaibi, in Yenagoa.

    This week, PDP’s candidate, Atiku, will depend on the leadership of Governor Dickson, and former President Goodluck Jonathan whose influence still looms high in this region.

    The APC candidate, President Buhari, will depend on the diligence of the leader of the party in the state and former governor, Chief Timipre Sylva, and of course on the Minister of State for Agriculture and Rural Development, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    RIVERS STATE

     

    In this week’s presidential election, Rivers is one of the states observers will take special interest in. This is because of the complexities that now define the politics of the oil-rich South-south state.

    Rivers, which started out in 1999 as a PDP state, became a major APC state under the then governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who governed it for eight years. However, Amaechi’s erstwhile political son, Nyesom Wike’s emergence as the state governor, on the ticket of PDP, not only returned the state to PDP but marked the beginning of an intriguing political rivalry that has held the breathe of Nigerians.

    Because Amaechi, the current Minister of Transportation, is also the Director-General of Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential Re-election Campaign, the expectation is high that he ought to ensure APC’s victory in the state during the presidential election. Both because of the high offices he currently occupies and the fact that it has become a personal battle between him and his former ally, it is certain that Amaechi will put in all he has to deliver Rivers to Buhari.The same pressure is on Wike to deliver Rivers to PDP.

    As it stands however, PDP still remains set to claim the state once again. of the 1,565,461 valid votes cast in the state in 2015 Presidential election, PDP garnered 1,487,075 votes while APC got 69,238 votes to come second. It remains to be seen if the figures can change significantly in the coming election even as Amaechi and Wike continue their ongoing epic political rivalry.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    DELTA STATE

     

    Delta has also remained a PDP state since 1999. Given that the party has continued to grow under the leadership of Governor Arthur Ifeanyi Okowa, there is likelihood that it would still win this year’s presidential election.

    Of the 1,267,773 valid votes cast in the state during the 2015 presidential election, PDP got 1,211,405 votes, while APC got 48,910 votes. Looking at this figure, one would ordinarily write off any party contesting with the ruling party, PDP, in Delta.

    But today, so much has happened in the politics of the state, especially within the opposition APC. For example, the defection of the former governor of the state, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, to APC last year is considered a major plus for the party.

    But informed observers wonder if such gains are enough to defeat PDP leadership in the state and win votes for Buhari? In all, PDP, which enjoys incumbency advantage, is still popular enough to win the presidential election in the state.

    Verdict: Atiku

     

    EDO STATE

     

    President Muhammadu Buhari will easily garner the majority of votes in Edo state given the popularity of his party, the ruling All Progressives Congress across the state. The APC’s political hold on the state, from the days of former Governor Adams Oshiomhole, who is now its National Chairman, supported by the rave reviews currently being enjoyed by Governor Godwin Obaseki, should work in the party’s favour.

    Before the 2015 general elections, the PDP could boast of pockets of strongholds in the Southern Senatorial District of the state, but all that faded with the defeat of the party by APC that year. The death of PDP strongman and former political leader of the state, Chief Tony Anenih, late last year, may have completed the demystification of PDP in a state it controlled for nearly 12 years before Oshiomhole took over.

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    AKWA IBOM STATE

     

    In the opinion of political pundits, Akwa Ibom State, the nation’s biggest oil producer, has made a right about turn politically, moving away from the PDP, which has ruled the state since 1999, to become an unmistakable APC enclave. A number of factors are responsible for the shift in political colouration in the oil-rich state.

    Gale of Defections: In the last three and half years, the ruling PDP in the state has suffered unrelenting gale of defections. The state started out in 2015 with three PDP senators; now it has one, two of them having defected to the APC in the last one and a half years, the last senator to defect being Godswill Akpabio, former governor of the state and former Minority Leader in the Senate. Many house members, political leaders and ordinary rank and file members of the party have moved over to the APC. Last week, the entire serving local council members in Essien Udim Local Government Area decamped to the APC. Essien Udim is the home council area of Senator Akpabio.

    The stage is thus set for a keen contest, a local derby of sorts, in the district. Pundits see a 50-50 split for the two parties in the district.

     

    Verdict: Buhari

     

    CROSS RIVER STATE

     

    In Cross River State, the PDP still looks good to repeat its 2015 landslide victory in the state in spite of some improvement in the visibility of the opposition APC after the last general election. Governor Ben Ayade and his predecessor, Liyel Imoke, appear to still have their firm grips on the politics of the state. The harmonious relationship between the duo, in spite of insinuations that they have fallen apart, helped the ruling PDP to wax stronger after the last election. Across the state, the governor is also adjudged as having done well. So, PDP looks good to get the votes to prevail on February 16.

    Verdict: Atiku

  • The die is cast

    IN 48 hours, we will go to the polls to elect our president from the large crowd of candidates seeking to occupy the exalted seat. President Muhammadu Buhari is leading the pack of candidates. The President is seeking re-election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Closely following on his heels is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    Pundits have since reduced the election to a two-horse race between Buhari and Atiku. They have written off the other candidates, who they have been referring to as also-rans, even before the election holds. To the pundits, it is a two-horse race because the duo are tested politicians, who have been in the corridors of power for long,  and also count among their associates money bags and other influential people that can swing things in their favour.

    What they lack in charisma and finesse, they have in abundance in their connections within and outside the country. Even the outside world also sees the election as a race between Buhari and Atiku. This is why external comments have always been on what relates to these leading candidates. They latch on to whatever either side says about the election, using it to implore us to conduct a free, fair and credible election. I do not like it when foreign powers try to dictate to us how to run our democracy because they have not really been shining examples when it comes to that.

    With what has been happening in the United States (US) since the election which brought President Donald Trump to power, we cannot say that his country is a perfect example of what a democracy should be. But we cannot discountenance what the US, the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU) are saying, no matter how imperfect their own systems may be. As bad as things may be in their countries and continents when it comes to democracy, we should credit them for their ability to manage things well without resorting to bloodshed.

    The world is afraid of our impending elections because their outcome may result in violence. Violence because of one side’s refusal not to accept defeat if it loses. It is only in Africa that elections are treated as war. A do-or-die. But should it be so? The answer, of course, is no. So, we know where the foreign powers are coming from when they don their high hat and tell us how to conduct elections. We brought it upon ourselves because of our politicians penchant for winning at all costs. They do not see elections for the contest they are. Like every contest, there must be a winner and a loser and the beauty of it is for the loser to accept defeat, congratulate the winner and life goes on thereafter.

    The February 16 presidential and National Assembly elections will kick start the general polls, which will be rounded off on March 2, with the governorship and House of Assembly contest. The focus is on the presidential race, which over 70 candidates are contesting, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Many of the candidates are unknown. This is why all the attention is on the more popular Buhari and Atiku. Are the two the best of the lot? In terms of brilliance and ability to deliver, they are not, but they have power, money, structure and connection behind them. The business community will not say it, but it will always support those in power because it is the politically correct thing to do.

    We have among the contestants young and vibrant Nigerians, who if given the chance can turn things around for good for our country, but the system may not allow them to emerge. I am talking of the Kingsley Moghalus, the Gbenga Olawepo-Hashims, the Fela Durotoyes, the Omoyele Sowores et al. These are new politicians on the block who with the right structure can win election and provide quality leadership for our country. We need leadership that can think out of the box. A president that can stand his own among his fellow presidents and not bring shame to our country. In a country of almost 200 million people, we have such people, but the obnoxious system we operate is not allowing them room to blossom.

    This is a presidential race with a difference. In the past, it would have only been the same old faces running. Today, we have the new breed also on the ballot. This is some consolation that we are growing as a nation. If the Moghalus, the Olawepo-Hashims and the Oby Ezekwesilis, before she withdrew from the race, can come out today, all  hope is not lost for our country. Very soon, the old brigade will know that their time is up and they will quietly quit the scene for the next generation. For that to happen, the technocrats too must be ready to give them a run for their money just as Moghalu and co., are doing because as APC stalwart Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is wont to say “power is not served a’la carte”. To get it, you must go for it.

    Even if the Moghalus, the Durotoyes, the Olawepo-Hashims do not get it eventually, history will be kind to them that they walked  where angels feared to tread. As it happened in 2015, we pray that at the end of the day, the election will be free and fair, with the losers having the courage to concede defeat and hug the winner to the admiration of the world. All is set for the election and may it be conducted without hitch. By this time next Thursday, it should be all over, with the winner known to the world. Who will that be?

    Those trying to play God, may yet be shocked by the outcome of the election. One thing is for sure, it will be a peaceful exercise to the chagrin of the prophets of doom.

  • Ohanaeze, Afenifere, Southsouth groups endorse Buhari

    LEADERS of ethnic socio-cultural groups yesterday endorsed President Muhammadu Buhari for a second term, urging Nigerians to vote for him in the Saturday election.

    “We hereby endorse President Muhammadu Buhari as the consensus candidate of our coalition and without any fear of contradiction, we state that he will win the presidential election overwhelmingly on February 16,” the group said.

    The groups are Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Afenifere, Middle Belt Coalition of Progressives (MCOP), Oodua Nationalist Coalition (ONAC) and Niger Delta Alliance for Justice.

    Ohanaeze Ndigbo Secretary Uche Okwukwu, a lawyer, who addressed reporters in Lagos on behalf of the coalition, called on the international community to respect the will of Nigerians as they exercise their freewill.

    He said the outcome of the poll is important to Nigeria and the rest of the world, adding that it has a particular implication for the stability of Africa.

    Okwukwu said the importance has made it compelling for the country to organise a peaceful, free, transparent, credible and violence-free election.

    Lamenting that the conservative People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ruined the economy through corrupt practices for 16 years, he said its legacies are the widening gap between the rich and the poor, frustration, social dislocation and unemployment.

    He said: “We must prevent the return of our country to the inglorious years of reckless corruption and unbridled rape of public resources. Nigeria should not return to the dark era of brigandage.”

    Okwukwu described the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as the party of change, adding that its leaders, including President Buhari, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, have exhibited courage in the face of political tribulations.

  • Tomorrow never dies

    America and Europe are again falling for easy lies over awkward truths

    President Muhammadu Buhari has campaigned in this election exactly as he has governed since 2015, true to the values in which he has believed all his adult life: our security, a diversified economy and an administration free from the scourge of corruption and the sleazy mediocrity it fuels.

    Buhari has not changed, and with good reason. Without these attributes, Nigeria will not know peace, prosperity or the rule of law: the only real foundations on which free and fair elections and genuine democracy can thrive. He is stubborn and resolute in defence of these values. This irritates quite a number in the elite, and especially those who, four years ago, thought that they could play the President and use his popularity to continue to steal and cheat the people.

    These players have failed. They are angry but they have not yet given up. They have some unlikely allies. Our traditional friends in the US and Europe say they want nothing from Nigeria except free and fair elections. But if you look at what their representatives here actually do rather than what they say, the unmistakeable signs of a quite different agenda are plain to see.

    It’s easy to forget where we were, a country falling apart, unable even to protect school girls and where corruption defined every aspect of so much of our public life and private business. Today our media ignore the revelations in a Milan court of how oil companies and fixers stuffed cash in suitcases and the nine-figure bank accounts of former PDP justice ministers and spy chiefs and Presidents. This failure goes beyond individuals or particular political parties, although it is true that our decline accelerated under the PDP after the end of military rule in 1999, a betrayal that Atiku Abubakar and many of his allies hope forlornly to revive and celebrate.

    Our young people see only the devastation that has been visited upon them, too young to remember the vibrant rural economy that once gave us the wealth for the schools and hospitals we are only now beginning to revive.

    They cannot imagine the rubber plantations where for decades Dunlop and Michelin made tyres for Nigeria and the world. The factories are long since closed. Our palm oil was once a world leader but it is only now, under this government, that we are reviving an industry on life support. We have timber, we have hardworking people – and yet we came to be importing even simple school desks and bedframes. We have so much of what we need for fertilisers, yet government after government preferred to let the plants we had already built go to waste for easy commissions on second-rate imports. Textiles used to employ thousands, and will do again, when we allow our talent fairly to compete on the international stage.

    A major crude producer with four refineries that once delivered petroleum products for home consumption and export, Nigeria was reduced to importing petroleum products as if we were Burkina Faso or Bangladesh, not a leading member of OPEC. Our golden goose was starved. The military and the PDP took all the money, they didn’t pay oil partners what we owed and only now, after this government’s efforts, speaking plainly and finding real solutions, can we begin to grow exports that have stagnated for 30 years.

    When our private banks collapsed (again) in 2009, the outstanding liabilities were N5.7 trillion. It is hard to imagine a sum of money, so vast, owed by so few, to so many. The list of decay is long. And yet this was the inherited culture of government – ‘to those that have, give more’ – that we have challenged, a culture where every declared reform was in fact a disguise to privatise profit and leave the rest of us with all the risk.

    Nigeria has almost as many problems as we have people. But it also has all the resources to meet our needs, if they are properly managed and honestly marshalled. Think where we would be today, but for all the time wasted, the prosperity we would enjoy and the better partner we might have been to our friends in the region and further afield! Buhari is not a populist but he is popular because he is delivering on our most basic needs first.

    Do our foreign friends simply not understand what is at stake, or do they actually want us to fail? We know we are not equal partners, and do not pretend to be so. In our own time in government, the US, the UK and the EU let us know subtly, and often not so subtly, what we should be doing on everything from currency reform to fuel deregulation and the import of toothpicks.

    They have their own subsidies to protect key strategic interests, their farmers and steel plants,  but condemn our own efforts to protect the poorest and most vulnerable from an unregulated market for food, transport and housing, or to create and protect space for new opportunities and innovation to flourish. This is not so much a question of policy, but integrity: we, at least, mean what we say. So many past governments in Nigeria did not.

    Our transition has been difficult because Nigeria needs radical change, which we have been delivering, despite ingenious and often disingenuous resistance from vested interests and the business-as-usual brigade. Which begs the question: is there a difference between what suits Nigeria’s real national interest and what suits the interests of the Great Powers? The years of failure were characterised by hypocrisy and betrayal by our leaders, who were in turn easy targets for manipulation – much easier for foreign powers to manage than a government genuinely looking to repair and revive today so that we can build tomorrow. And tomorrow never dies.

    I always knew that business-as-usual had a powerful self-interest in resisting CHANGE. I had hoped their tentacles did not stretch so far or so easily beyond our borders, that a good case, well made, would receive a fair hearing. In three and a half years in government, I have learned that decent argument and hard facts face stiff competition from vested interests that seem so easily to sway people who should know better. A convenient lie is not better than an uncomfortable truth.

    Nowhere is this more clear than the contrived debate on the conduct of elections. Buhari’s commitment to the democratic process is a matter of record, time and again. All of the work to rebuild our public institutions, restore our values and recalibrate our future prospects can succeed only in a democracy in which the integrity of elections is sacrosanct.

    Instead of judging Nigeria by our actions, it seems altogether too easy for foreign partners to be swayed by the expensive words of lobbyists. Riva Levinson has been hired by Bukola Saraki. She was trained by Paul Manafort and Roger Stone (both caught up in the probe into interference by foreign powers in the US elections in 2016) and guide earlier in her career to dictators like Siad Barre, unprincipled warlords like Jonas Savimbi, or frauds like Iraqi exile Ahmed Chalabi, the man who neo-conned the Bush White House. We are meant to be believe that Ms Levinson, like the others who are paid by one of the contestants, wants only to promote a free and fair race. And that it is only a coincidence that this language for hire is identical to what we hear from accredited diplomats!

    By omission or commission,  it appears it may actually suit our friends, deep down, below the pious words, to see Nigeria a basket case, begging bowl in hand, than the partner we could, should and will prove to be. And we have been here before. At the end of 1984, British diplomats predicted a coup against the then Buhari government, with whom London was quarrelling over everything from apartheid to economic policy (as we knew then, and as it turned out, Buhari was right). Glowing profiles of Ibrahim Babangida were prepared and telegrams of congratulation were drafted. Mrs Thatcher put the project on ice, at least for a few months, but it was not long before foreign powers concluded that their best interests would be served by people who told them everything they wanted to hear on democratisation and reform, but, as they could and should have known, meant precisely none of it. Nigeria lived through the consequences of this systemic deception. We lost so much in the 30 years after 1985, but nothing so precious as the loss of confidence in our values and what we as a nation could be.

    In the 19th century, Lord Palmerston, Britain’s Prime Minister and one of the country’s most celebrated diplomats, observed that “nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.” We have been delivering on a programme to restore the rule of law, to build democracy and strengthen security, to deal with corruption and to create opportunity in a new meritocracy. It is a platform that helps tackle violent extremism, illegal migration, trafficking and financial crime. These  are the very issues that are central to the interests of our foreign friends, and we are producing results.

    Nigeria will make its choice on Saturday. It has never before had a government that has more clearly demonstrated through words and actions its commitment to transparency and the rule of law, protecting good judges and decent public office-holders from the corruption of their peers. Voters are free to move forwards to a better future or back to the desperate past from which we are now beginning to emerge. Our election commission is independent and has all resources it needs to do its job. We should all be wise to the risks, including partial and premature announcements of unofficial results from unverifiable sources, especially when one party has already declared well in advance that it cannot lose unless there is rigging. There should be no interference from any quarter, including foreign powers who say one thing but do another – exactly the formula that their friends here have employed for years to bring us so close to despair.

     

    Abba Kyari is Chief of Staff to President Muhammadu Buhari

  • ‘Buhari committed to private sector driven economy’

    President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is committed to a private sector driven economy, the Director General, Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE), Alex A. Okoh, has said.

    He called on local and international businessmen to take advantage of the government’s open door policy to establish businesses in the country.

    Okoh, who spoke at the handover of the Terminal ‘B’ Warri Old Port to the concessionaire- Ocean & Cargo Terminal Services Limited –on Monday, said Nigerian ports are the main gateway to the country; and are key to the Federal Government’s objective of diversifying and growing the economy.

    He said the objective of the government’s concession, is to increase efficiency at the ports with the ultimate goal to modernise the ports to make them more competitive.

    Okoh, in a statement issued by BPE’s Head of Public Communication, Amina Othman Tukur,  said the concession is for a period of 25 years at an annual lease fee of $1,621,500, in addition to the entry fee and monthly throughput fee chargeable on the volume of cargo handled.

    He assured that the implementation of the covenanted development plan for the Concessionaire would be closely monitored by the relevant government agencies, including the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), BPE and Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) to ensure compliance.

    NPA Managing Director, Ms. Hadiza Bala Usman, represented by the Executive Director, Marine and Operations, Sokonte Davies, said the concessioning of ports’ facilities was carried out to enhance productivity and attract more cargos to the hitherto abandoned port.

    She appealed to the people in the port community to support government’s initiatives aimed at developing the maritime industry, saying the port concession would enhance the economy of Delta State and create jobs for people in the host communities.

    “We, therefore implore the communities, in making the government’s efforts a success; they should work positively with the concessionaire; the communities should try not to put any pressure on them because pressures can shut the business down.

    “But if the communities support them, they will see that as activities increase and vessels come, it will increase the engagement of young men and women and even several other people.

    “The communities will be positively impacted because the economy will grow and it will have positive effect on every area of life of the people.

    “We are using this opportunity to appeal to the host communities to help this one to work. It is working in other places, don’t let yours be different”, he added.