Tag: Presidential election

  • Buhari congratulates Benin president-elect

    President Muhammadu Buhari has congratulated the President-elect of Benin Republic, Mr Patrice Talon, on his electoral victory in Sunday’s presidential run-off as announced by the Autonomous National Electoral Commission.

    This is contained in a statement issued in Abuja by Mr Femi Adesina, Special Adviser on Media and Publicity to the president.

    Buhari commended the government and people of Benin Republic on the peaceful and orderly conduct of the presidential poll.

    He saluted the courage and statesmanship of Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou and presidential candidate of the ruling coalition, in upholding the democratic process by promptly congratulating his main challenger, Talon, on his electoral victory.

    He also commended President Boni Yayi for his “leadership throughout the electoral process and for his invaluable contribution to democratic governance in the sub-region, evidently demonstrated in the successful conduct of the presidential elections.’’

    The president said that he was impressed and encouraged by the determination and exemplary conduct demonstrated by Beninese in coming out en masse to perform their civic duties.

    According to him, the successful conclusion of the electoral process marks an important step in consolidating democracy in the sub-region and a beacon for other African countries to emulate.

    Buhari expressed the hope that the Beninese would give the incoming government all the necessary support to succeed.

    He reaffirmed that Nigeria, as a beneficiary of the dividends of democracy, would continue to build strong partnerships with her neighbours for the peace, progress and prosperity of its citizens.

     

  • FIFA confirms five candidates for February election 

    FIFA confirms five candidates for February election 

    FIFA’s ad-hoc Electoral Committee has formally admitted five candidates to stand for the presidency of soccer’s global governing body at an election on Feb. 26, it said on Tuesday.

    Their names are Prince Ali Bin Al Hussein of Jordan, Sheik Salman Bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa of Bahrain and Jerome Champagne of France.

    Gianni Infantino of Italy and Switzerland and Tokyo Sexwale of South Africa are among the approved candidates, it said in a statement.

    There are five formally admitted candidates.

  • Presidential election: An analysis

    The 2015 presidential election was, perhaps, one of the most keenly contested in the annals of our country’s electoral history. The election occurred after a controversial six-week postponement, following insistence by security agencies that it should be pushed forward for them to accelerate the battle against the insurgency in the north east.

    It was possibly the most divisive election, drawing Nigerians into a devious web of mudslinging as well as ethnic and religious chauvinism. Eventually, the election turned out to be largely a referendum on key national issues pertaining to the state of the country’s economy and security. This historic election was fought and won by Nigerians who appeared to bestrongly determined to assert their positions as the real employers of those in power, and on whose behalf and whose benefits power should be exercised.

    The lesson of who truly wields power and whose interest should really matter in a democracy has definitely been affirmed.  President MuhammaduBuhari has his job cut out for him. He will need to swiftly work very hard in addressing the deep divisions in the country while simultaneously addressing the economic crisis and security challenges facing the country. This is not the time to revel in triumphalism or adopt a winner-takes-all approach to governance that has been the graveyard of relationships across Nigeria’s multifarious political, social and economic constituencies.

    The election has been a clear revelation on how best to exercise the franchise by Nigerians. The utilisation of the biometric capabilities of permanent voter’s cards and card-readers made the polls Nigeria’s first technologically compliant elections, with a greater success, despite initial hitches and distraction. The ferocity with which the enemies of free and fair elections fought the utilisation of the new technology was a real revelation about the determination of some politicians to continue to steal the people’s mandate. The subsequent perfection of the biometric voting system in Nigeria would clearly improve the integrity of elections in the country.

    The election was historic because for the first time in the nation’s history, an incumbent president was defeated in the polls. It is a huge signal bursting the presumed invincibility of our leaders. Now that Nigerians have demonstrated that they can remove presidents through electoral process, the accountability of leaders to the people is placed on the front burner. Poor governance can henceforth be sanctioned through the ballot. This simple civic message on the power of the electorate could be a decisive turning point in consolidating our democracy. The value of coming out “en masse” to vote, but also staying back in the polling centres to protect the votes and ensure that they count is becoming clearer. These are significant indices of the progression of our democracy. It is also important to note that another historic element in these elections is the emergence of a united opposition platform. Previous attempts to form a united opposition party have always hit the rocks. This time around, the emergence of a virile opposition in the form of the All Progressive Congress(APC) made it possible to challenge and defeat the People’s Democratic Party(PDP) after 16 years of virtual one-party rule at the federal level. The PDP got so arrogant as to announce that its rule would last at least 60 years. The lesson here for the APC is that its longevity would depend on its capacity to promote good and democratic ideals in Nigeria.

    Despite the hitches and distractions in the election, the main heroes of these elections are the Nigerian people who showed commitment and discipline by coming out to vote and staying on in their polling units sometimes into the second day as the process dragged. Dr GoodluckEbele Jonathan also exhibited a gesture signalling restraint to his followers and indicating the  wish of many Nigerians as greater than individual desire or ambition. By so doing, he left Aso Rock on the high note and would enter Nigeria history as the first President to accept defeat. Also, another important hero to note is the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and its chairman, Prof Attahiru Jega. Their heroism spoke so loud in the conduct of the 2015 elections. They were able to deploy technology to achieve credible, free and remarkably fair elections, while maintaining calm in face of subtle intimidation and turbulence.

    For Nigerians, this year’s election have restored our bragging rights. We the people are the employers of those holding power in trust for us and we can dispense with or refuse to renew their contract when they cease to act on our behalf and for our benefit and progress. This has been the most important lesson of the elections.  God bless Nigeria.

     

    •Emmanuel, 200-Level Mass Comm., BOWEN

  • June 12, 1993, and June 9, 2015

    June 12, 1993, and June 9, 2015

    The June 12, 1993 presidential election heralded a new dawn in Nigerian politics.

    Forsaking tribe and tongue and creed and station, a decisive majority of Nigerians voted to entrust their destinies to the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Bashorun MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe, of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

    In eight years of virtually unchallenged rule, the duplicitous regime of military president  Ibrahim Babangida had led Nigeria to the edge of economic ruin and destroyed the value system. The election offered Nigeria a chance to chart a new course, founded on the principle that governance shall be based on the consent of the people freely given.

    Babangida annulled the election, with help from a suborned faction of the SDP, which was only too willing to bargain away its electoral victory and with it, the hopes and aspirations of millions of Nigerians who had given it their mandate.

    The rest is history.

    Of the many political figures complicit in the annulment, two have not only remained in circulation, their stock has risen.  I have in mind Brigadier General David Mark who, as a key player in the Babangida regime, is on record as having vowed to shoot Abiola to death if Abiola was allowed to take power

    David Mark has served as a member of the Senate for 16 years and as its president for the last eight, in which latter capacity he designated himself or was designated His Excellency the Right Honourable David Mark.

    I have also in mind Chief Tony Anenih, whose renown as a fixer had been established long before he took the leading part, as national chairman of the SDP, in bargaining away the party’s victory in the 1993 presidential election. He has since then made a lucrative career as a fixer for every season.

    Wherever a political job of the most unsavoury kind is to be done, like turning winners into losers and losers into winners, there you will find Anenih in his true element.

    In a way, June 8, 2015, some 22 years removed from the historic 1993 poll, also signalised a new dawn. The two houses of the legislature were to be inaugurated under new management as it were, the APC having wrested them decisively from the PDP.  These are the organs through which the APC was going to pursue the agenda of Change on which it had fought and won the election.

    To drive the agenda and pursue it faithfully, the APC had to have as the heads of these organs persons whose dedication, loyalty and commitment it can vouch for. In its judgment, Bukola Saraki did not pass that test. He had brought considerable assets to the APC through the ACN when he defected from the PDP, but he was for all kinds of reasons not his party’s candidate for Senate president.

    As if to prove prescient those elements in the APC who thought him unfit for that high office and to confirm what his fellow Ilorin kinsman Is’haq Moddibo Kawu has written about him, namely, that the only thing Saraki cares about is Saraki, the aspirant surreptitiously cut a deal with the PDP minority, which then voted en bloc with some renegades in the APC to steamroll him to the third rank in the national order of precedence.

    To get this dubious support, Saraki bargained away to the PDP the APC’s prerogative of selecting the deputy senate president from its own ranks. And in grateful appreciation of his role in facilitating this tawdry enterprise, the conclave elected David Mark “leader” of the   Senate, a position that does not exist. A little bankrolling also helped, I gathered.

    It took 57 of 108 senators, all the 49 from the PDP and eight from the APC, presumably including Saraki, to consummate this subversive deal. There was no dissenting vote. Before many in the attentive audience realised what was going on, Saraki was already ensconced in the Senate president’s chair and wielding the gavel.

    Such was the rush, the indecent haste with which an event that should have resonated with solemnity and symbolism came across instead as the parliamentary equivalent of a street mugging.

    The 51 APC senators who were not on the floor had not willfully absented themselves.  They were assembled at another venue, to which all APC senators had been summoned, for an appeal by President Muhammadu Buhari for party unity in the run-up to the election of leaders of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

    Saraki may still have won if the election had been conducted with all APC members present and voting. But Saraki being Saraki, he left nothing to chance. Why wait for a vote of the full house and an uncertain outcome when you can achieve your goal through a Faustian bargain?

    As in the 1993 presidential election, David Mark, and according to media reports Tony Anenih, who was brought out of retirement to do what he does best, played pivotal roles in up-ending established process to achieve partisan, if not personal goals.

    It is in truth scandalous that David Mark who had served in the Senate since it was set up 16 years ago and presided over it for eight aided and abetted this flagrant abuse of process when he should have stood up robustly for propriety.  Where was the “elder statesman” in him?

    There was a time when the standard justification for a military coup was that politicians or the political class had learned no lessons. Were any lessons taught?

    The storied careers of David Mark and Tony Anenih, and indeed Bukola Saraki, whose rap sheet with the EFCC is about a mile long, show clearly that no lessons were taught. That is why Nigeria has been going round and round in an ever -shrinking circle.

    The usual pettifoggers have been justifying Saraki’s coup – for that is what it is at bottom —claiming that it accords with the rules and regulations in force. Even President Buhari has said that it was “somewhat constitutional.”

    Everything Saraki did may well have accorded with the letter of the law. But did it also accord with the spirit of the law?  And is fidelity to the spirit of the law not as important as, if not more important than, fidelity to the letter of the law? Fidelity to the letter of the law, like the sleep of reason, often brings forth monstrosities like the 12 and 2/3 formula that the Supreme Court relied upon to determine the winner of the 1979 presidential election.

    When the “anything goes” brigade claims that the coup is good for democracy because it will ensure the independence of the legislature, the retort must be: Independence from whom or from what? Independence for what?

    To return to the June 12, 1993 presidential election, the 22nd anniversary of which was marked last Friday largely in the Yoruba country:  President Buhari’s acknowledgement was a desultory tweet that had all the markings of an afterthought.

    We now know, thanks to Humphrey Nwosu who conducted the poll, that Abiola won it indissolubly. So, the claim that the election was “inconclusive” is no longer tenable.

    Nor can anyone in good faith now refer to Abiola as the “presumed winner” of that election. In the books of the National Electoral Commission, and in the records of accredited observers, domestic and foreign, Abiola was the actual, outright, undisputed winner, in truth a president-elect, a president–in-waiting.

    He died defending his mandate, after years of detention in solitary confinement, in the most barbarous of conditions. He rejected shabby and ignoble compromise, the kind that Saraki embraced to win election as Senate president.

    A long line of Nigerian rulers, from Babangida to Abdulsalami Abubakar, through Ernest Shonekan and Sani Abacha, suborned the institutions and instrumentalities of the state to persecute, and ultimately murder Abiola and his wife Kudirat, not sparing his global business empire, all because he won an election and would not surrender the people’s mandate.

    There is only one way to expiate this crime.

    It begins with Nigerian state marshalling all its institutions to acknowledge and honour that indissoluble fact.

    Thereafter, it should officially recognise Abiola as a president-elect who died before he could take office, and accord him all the rights and privileges of a president.

  • The presidential election in perspective

    Every leader sooner or later faces the Julius Caesar situation – beneficiaries of his most noble and patriotic efforts stab him in the back. However, leaders with a treacherous streak, take it in their stride more than leaders like Julius Caesar, who was without guile. Such leaders as Caesar are victims of the truism that to the pure all things are pure; they live their lives believing that everyone is good. When their “Brutuses” bare their fangs, the weight and depth of their ingratitude and betrayal vanquish them. Such was the case with President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in the last presidential election.

    He conceded defeat with the feeling of “et tu Brutus.” The list of betrayers is endless… et tu Prof Jega, et tu some northern PDP Governors (particularly the one who voted openly for APC and showed his ballot paper shamelessly to the people), et tu some PDP senators etc. He was not defeated by the conspiracy of the leaders of some of the majority tribes against the South South. Everyone saw that as plain as a rain cloud on a sunny day. The traitors from the South South who failed to understand the consequences of today’s action for their posterity did not defeat him.

    President Jonathan was vanquished by the shocking depth of treachery and betrayal to his noble and patriotic cause by persons who were close confidants and who assured him of their support. These were wolves in sheep clothing.  It is to Jonathan’s credit that in the campaigns, he was indicted for omission, not commission. He should have armed himself and rescued the Chibok girls like Arnold Swazzenager armed himself and rescued his daughter in the film “Commando.” He should have declared a full emergency in the three insurgency-ravaged states (like Chief Obasanjo did in Jos), but he did not. He should have known better than to seek to end insurgency in the three APC states and give them the opportunity to vote, knowing fully well that these were states, which could swing the votes away from him – but he did not. He did not want to disenfranchise them at the expense of his ambition.

    He could have stopped the governors (Amaechi et al) and others from decamping from the PDP to APC, but instead of defending the Constitution in line with his oath of office, he went to court.  But all his accusations resembled an oily paper parcel, containing a hamburger, wrapped hurriedly in a driving rain – it had many holes. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who claimed that there was an agreement that President Jonathan should go for only one term, let the main burger out of the bag. Why was his fate sealed before his journey of service? The most pertinent answer is because he is from the South South. It was the first time a South South man was ascending to power and it was through a force majeure (act of God). Yet the Obasanjos of this world had to use this opportunity to prove to all and sundry that though all regions are equal, some are more “equal” than others. It was heart-breaking to hear him (OBJ) say repeatedly that it was agreed that the South South should do only one term. Is he not the man who did two terms and wanted to tweak the Constitution for a third term?

    Nigeria needs zoning and zoning should reflect justice in structure and content. In America, when George Bush was president, his sons-George Bush Jr was the governor of Texas while Jeb Bush served as the governor of Florida. In America you can come from anywhere and contest for office anywhere. In Nigeria, even if your grandfather was born in Sokoto and your father never visited Imo State and you never visited Imo State and your name were Okechukwu, you could never claim to come from Sokoto State – do not even mention contesting for any office there. That is the way the card is stacked against commonsense and nationalism. We are too attached to our ancestral homes and we think in terms of that – that is why we need zoning as a principle – not as tokenism to some regions. It is also why some regions conspire to rob other regions in their inordinate struggle for power and supremacy in the Nigerian political space. There is a sense of belonging when someone from your region is the President. A sense of “Hey, the President is from my area! Everyone has a fair chance and one day my son or daughter can also be president.” The president may not do anything for your area, but his merely occupying that office inspires your confidence in the Nigerian project.

    Confidence in the Nigerian project gave way to a new found sense of brotherhood and solidarity with the South East. That sense of solidarity is strengthened by a common sense of distinctiveness and grievance. Gowon’s three R’s (reconstruction, reconciliation and rehabilitation) still sound to the people of the South East like a bad joke about Santa Claus. It will remain so until Nigeria accedes the presidency to an Igbo man.

    GMB’s first task should be to heal the wounds and scars of the election. It was an acrimonious campaign laden with single-perspective arguments. War drums were sounded and emotions were driven high. Echoes of the fight now reverberate around the country, particularly in Ekiti State where the APC members of the House of Assembly are bent on sacking Governor Ayo Fayose – apparently for his virulent attack on the President-elect during the campaigns. The timing of the impeachment smacks of vendetta.

    This is the time GMB should prove himself a statesman by calling the APC members there to order and offering Fayose the kind of forgiveness Nelson Mandela offered to his white captors who jailed him for 27 years. He should follow Jonathan’s example. He won in 2011, but no one suffered because of his victory. That, among other things, is why Jonathan has already established his credentials as the first global statesman to come from our shores.

    President Jonathan is on his way out. But the problems of Nigeria will outlive him. Let Jonathan return home in the knowledge and comfort that he reigned and left without shedding anybody’s blood and without allowing anybody’s blood to be shed because of his ambition. The traitors are still celebrating and clinking glasses. That was how Anystus and company celebrated when they dealt with Socrates. But today Socrates’ name is in the Hall of Fame and the names of Anystus and his accomplices are in the Hall of Infamy. Nobody trusts a traitor, and even GMB will be wary of them. Such are the real losers in this election – not Jonathan. May God give GMB the wisdom to rule well and follow the path of true statesmanship.

    • Ukpe is an Uyo-based commentator on public issues.)

     

  • The gains and pains of Presidential election

    The gains and pains of Presidential election

    SIR: Wednesday, April 1st 2015 will remain a great day in our democratic history, not only because it was the first time an opposition party defeated an incumbent president in a presidential election but because it was a day Nigeria joined the privileged few African countries where the idea of competitive electoral politics is becoming gradually institutionalized.

    Let me use this medium to congratulate the people’s general, Muhammadu “Okechukwu” Buhari on a well-deserved victory. You are the change that we seek. May your reign bring the desired change.

    My support for the president-elect became appallingly obvious when he emerged as All Progressive Congress (APC) presidential flag bearer. In one of my articles in December last year titled, General Muhammadu Buhari: “The Wind Of Change”, I averred that “General Muhammadu Buhari is the Moses of our time who is confidently living out his life of grace, this explains his wide acceptance this time around across the federation which has made him remain resolute in his mission and vision to stamp out corruption once he’s elected president”.

    I postulated further that, “General Buhari’s charismatic authority is a phenomenon, he is a man of untainted integrity, a strong distinct personality, with an unlimited amount of passion, he has the ability to inspire people to key into his vision. His cult of followership is on the increase. It cuts across ethnic, religious and party affiliations, it is a demonstration of his extra-ordinary insight and accomplishments”.

    One then urged Nigerians wherever they are in the yuletide season- north, west, east or south, to drum, sing, shout and write about the man. However they can, they should spread the good news about General Muhammadu Buhari. I give kudos to all those that shunned parochial sentiments and supported the people’s General till the last day-it wasn’t an easy decision to make. To the narrow minded, it was strange for someone from my region to be a die-hard supporter of an assumed Muslim fanatic. Many of us passed through the fire in defence of General Buhari they hardly know other than the hate documentaries and contrived propaganda some paid apologists of the out going government used to get at him.

    On social media platforms like Facebook and twitter, I wasn’t spared at all, the insults were beyond reproach and in the process of defending the people’s general, tempers ran high and friendships were severed. I lost friends who did not see reasons with me why we should look beyond religion and ethnicity and vote for a change.

    Due to ignorance or outright refusal to see the impossibility of such, majority of Christians were irreversibly paranoid of an “Islamic agenda” in Nigeria if GMB emerged president of Nigeria courtesy of repeated sermons in their various places of worship. On Monday 30th March, while many awaited the announcement of the winner of the presidential election, I was in my comfort zone celebrating the victory of the people’s General on my face book page, many that doubted me from the onset started coming to terms with the reality as results from states were collated.

    You and I were witnesses to the celebration of Nigerians both at home and abroad on Tuesday, 31st March. The emergence of GMB as the president-elect of the Federal Republic Of Nigeria is a strong reminder that “failure is indeed an orphan”. Many that never saw anything good in the opposition APC before now are already identifying with the party and before May 29th hand over date, there will be an exodus of politicians from other political parties to the soon to be governing/ruling party.

    After the elections, the biggest shame won’t be who won or lost, but the friendships or relationships that were damaged over politics while the campaigns lasted. Same politicians we supported that made us severe our friendships may defect to the soon to be governing party and it will be business as usual. I may have had the last laugh but the truth remains that friendships lost may never be regained again. It’s not worth the stress. Let’s drop our hatred for one another and move on, there’s life after politics.

    To friends that have been asking me all over the social media, “the gains of supporting General Buhari now he has won?”. The answer is very simple and brief, “It is not what I will gain, it is what Nigeria will gain, a great and better Nigeria for us all. Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though chequered by travails… than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat according to Theodore Roosevelt.

     

  • 2105 presidential election and Nigeria’s destiny

    2105 presidential election and Nigeria’s destiny

    If yesterday’s elections were free and fair by national and international standards, President Jonathan would have pushed the country in the direction of its destiny

    If the presidential election yesterday was free, fair, and credible, Nigeria as a country would have moved very close to its destiny of a peaceful, stable, unifiable, multi-ethnic modern state that is pro-development. The euphoria ignited by a free, fair, and transparent election would be of immense pleasure to the nation as a corporate body, its citizens and friends across the globe.

    The distance between the country and its destiny since independence can be traced to several factors. One was the desire in the first republic for a one-party state by a ruling party that wanted to dominate the rest of the country. Another was the rise of military regimes that succeeded in changing the character of the country from federal to quasi-unitary system of governance, most of which in the process became more corrupt than the civilian regimes they ousted from power.

    The last factor was recurrence of fraudulent or manipulated elections between 1959 and 2014. It is on record that the 1959 election supervised by the departing colonial master was rigged in favor of the section of the country that Britain preferred to succeed it. Similarly, the 1964 federal election was rigged in favor of the ruling party, just as the 1979 and 1983 presidential elections were adjudged by many citizens to have been manipulated in favour of the ruling party at the center. The June 12, 1993 presidential election claimed by its organiser, General Ibrahim Babangida, as the freest in the nation’s electoral history was also ‘rigged’ against the winner, MKO Abiola at the end through annulment. The other four elections: 1999, 2003, 2007, and even 2011 were all perceived by national and international observers as below the average standard of democratic elections in the so-called third world. No wonder, one of the earliest promises of President Jonathan after he assumed the presidency in 2011 was to ensure conduct of free and fair elections. If yesterday’s elections were free and fair by national and international standards, President Jonathan would have pushed the country in the direction of its destiny, but more on this later.

    In many ways, corruption, believed to be the cancer that has been destroying the country, cannot be isolated from the type of governments that the country has been saddled with since 1959: military dictatorships and civilian administrations brought into being by questionable elections. Citizens for too long have known that a government created by fraud cannot but be fraudulent. Consequently, many citizens, if not most, view all the governments since independence as lacking in legitimacy. Such citizens see corruption as part of the political fabric of the country and joined their leaders on the bandwagon of political and bureaucratic corruption. If by chance or design yesterday’s elections were free and transparent, legitimacy would finally come to the governments that grow from them.

    The first vital step in rebuilding governments at all levels in the country is a free and transparent election. It will stop the tradition of personalistic and neo-patrimonial state that has been in existence in the country’s independent life till now. In other words, the culture of impunity that has raged for decades will be over. Citizens’ consent to their governance through free and fair ballot will further energise them in their demand for full accountability from those who govern them. Not only at the executive level will a new culture emerge from fair election, the legislative culture in the country in the last sixteen years will have to bow to the expectations of citizens who own the mandate now freely given to the executive and the legislature.

    Whether the incumbent is the winner or loser of a free and fair election, he will come out as the moral winner. He will write his name in gold as the first president that respected citizens’ fundamental human right to choose their leaders in an unfettered election. President Jonathan will, despite the muscular and vitriolic campaign of the last two or so months by his supporters,  be able to beat his chest in any part of the country while saying that he has become one of the builders of a free modern polity. If he loses, he will be one of the many democratic leaders across the globe that failed to win re-election, something that has never happened in our own country before him.

    Should General Buhari win a free and fair election, he is likely to be humbled by the trust of the people in giving him the opportunity to rule the country several decades after he had ruled it as a military dictator. He will no longer see his power as deriving from the barrel of guns but from the hearts of voters across geopolitical and ethnic lines. Consequently, he will be more likely than not to listen to the wishes of the electorate, knowing full well that without them, he could not have become president in the last quarter of the life of an average ruler. There will be no space in his government for any manner of ethnic or cultural domination but only for the building of a modern democratic multiethnic nation.

    As for the average citizen, he or she will feel invigorated by free and fair elections. The feeling of political impotence on the part of the electorate which has created an I-don’t-care attitude over the years will disappear. It will become easier for the electorate to demand accountability from their president and lawmakers. It will become easier for citizens to join policy debates about how much should their lawmakers earn directly and indirectly. Citizens will have more opportunities to bring the issue of re-federalising the country for unity and development on the table with the hope of stimulating a process that is inclusive in terms of how to make the country work and keep it united for progress and development.

    International friends of our country will be more likely to be partners than what they have been. Our immediate neighbours in the ECOWAS will feel relieved that the giant of the region has finally risen to the challenge of accepting the nuances of democratic process and governance. No longer will our West African neighbours feel threatened that post-election violence will create another wave of refugees that can destabilise smaller countries in the region. A Nigeria that has finally joined the ranks of Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Benin, etc., in moving away from the culture of impunity to one of accountability and the rule of law will certainly become a friendly lever of economic power in the region.

    With respect to our other international friends in Europe, the Americas, and the Orient, Nigeria’s free, fair, and transparent election will have to disabuse their minds about the facile generalisation about Nigeria being largely a rogue, failing, or failed state. The feeling in the outside world that a country that cannot conduct a free and fair election lacks legitimacy and cannot be trusted to respect accountability will diminish and gradually disappear as the culture of allowing citizens to choose their leaders grow in the country.  Nigeria will be able to see more genuine investors, instead of hearing about them on government-controlled radio and television announcements.

    Finally, millions of Nigerians at home and abroad who have been worried stiff about the future of the country will now sleep without the fear:”what are we going to do if things suddenly fall apart.”

  • Presidential election: Opinion poll places Buhari ahead of Jonathan

    AN opinion poll conducted by Alliance for Credible Election (ACE) on the rescheduled presidential election has placed the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, ahead of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan.

    Presenting the pre-election poll report yesterday, ACE said it was conducted through telephone interviews with 1,000 randomly selected Nigerians between February 23 and 27, 2015.

    Abdulwahab Ekehide, who presented the report, said Buhari got 44 per cent, while Jonathan got 36 per cent from the poll.

    “Respondents were asked which candidate they plan to vote for in the 2015 presidential elections, 44 per cent said Gen. Buhari, 36 per cent said President Jonathan and 19 per cent refused to give an answer to the question, while one per cent was undecided.

    “Across the geo-political zones, the highest proportion of respondents planning to vote for Gen. Buhari were in the Northwest, (56 per cent) and the lowest proportion in the Southeast (31 per cent).

    “For President Jonathan, the highest proportion was in the Southeast (57 per cent) and the lowest in the Northwest (25 per cent),” he said.

    Fielding questions from reporters, chairman of the occasion and Chairman, Partner for Electoral Reforms, Ezenwa Nwagwu, said: “All our engagements with electoral process is to improve and develop the nation.”

    On the use of 1,000 randomly selected Nigerians, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared that over 52 million voters were with the Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), Nwagwu said: “Size does not have anything to do with the outcome.”

    He argued that the outcome of the poll would motivate the political parties to do more and work harder to improve their chances.

     

     

  • Buhari’ll win presidential election, says Eurasia Group

    We change our election forecast from a narrow win for incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to a victory for opposition leader Gen. Muhamadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) (60 per cent probability).

    The electoral map is tilting towards Gen Buhari of the APC in the swing regions of the Southwest and Middle- Belt, while high turnout in his core northern base will offset President Jonathan’s advantage in the Niger Delta.

    While a Gen Buhari administration’s reliance on technocratic, business-oriented senior officials will lead to constructive policy initiatives, we keep our long-term trajectory at neutral given the downside risks to oil production and policy implementation challenges.

     

    Buhari edges ahead

     

    We had long viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favorite to win reelection, but a number of factors now lead us to believe the edge has swung in Gen Buhari’s favour. The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow President Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.

    Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling party. While this still helps incumbent Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Gen Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New Permanent Voting Cards (PVCs) and Smart Card Readers (SCRs) will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Gen Buhari in a landslide. Equally important are the enthusiasm gap between the candidates and widespread desire for change. Tepid support for President Jonathan, even within his own party, means there is no guarantee that patronage will translate into votes. This is especially the case in the North where influential PDP governors and other leaders are taking the money but barely campaigning for Jonathan because of Gen Buhari’s overwhelming popularity in the region.

    While we expected the electoral map to favour Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Gen Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily populated Southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election. Dr. Jonathan won the Southwest and Middle Belt handily in 2011, but faces an uphill task now. Gen Buhari has reached out to the Southwestern Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a political alliance of the country’s two largest ethnic groups (the Hausa and Yoruba). In contrast, Jonathan has struggled to make inroads with either group.

    The spotty polling data which is available is also trending in favor of Gen Buhari.

    A recent poll by a credible local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, showed a heavy 58-32 per cent lead for Gen Buhari in Lagos State — a state in which Jonathan handily defeated Buhari last election. While a national poll by Afrobarometer in January showed a statistical dead heat at 42 per cent for each candidate, economic conditions with the weakening naira continue to deteriorate, along with the security environment. According to an IPSOS/Eurasia Group model for predicting elections, incumbents have a hard time winning reelection when their approval ratings are below 40 per cent. We do not have polling data to confirm where President Jonathan is now, but given he was at around 50 per cent at the end of last year, our best guess is that he is below 40 per cent now.

    In addition, the APC has suffered few defections during the campaign despite plenty of PDP inducements, suggesting a relatively united coalition whose members have confidence in the prospects of victory. In contrast, the PDP has been weakened by internal power struggles, including the dramatic departure from the party by former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Another obstacle for the PDP is the downturn in the economy, especially the naira devaluations that have hit pocketbooks hard in the import-dependent country. That has played into the APC’s rallying call for change at an inopportune time for the ruling party.

    Despite some important military gains against Boko Haram in the Northeast and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) audit of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the PDP is starting to look desperate. Examples include: forcing the election delay; seeking (unofficially) the resignation of respected Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission (INEC) head Prof Attahiru Jega; questioning Gen Buhari’s health status; playing sectarian politics and casting doubts about the PVCs. This raises the possibility of another election delay, but we think that is relatively unlikely, in part because it would probably backfire politically and would certainly do so internationally. While some of his aides and military leaders may feel otherwise, President Jonathan himself is unlikely to support such a maneuver.

     

    Expect a contested

    election outcome

     

    The above does suggest, however, that the administration will contest the election if it loses, especially if it is close. Whether that contestation is violent and protracted, or limited to a court challenge (which would likely uphold INEC’s election verdict) remains to be seen; it will likely be somewhere in-between the two. Worst-case scenarios like a military seizure of Abuja or a self-declaration of victory by the PDP and the de-facto partition (like Cote d’Ivoire in 2011) cannot be discounted entirely but are unlikely. That is in part due to the enthusiasm gap for President Jonathan and also because of his own temperament. The concern, though, is if his administration is hijacked by hardliners in the PDP, who will do whatever it takes to stay in power and forestall a dreaded Gen. Buhari presidency that they fear will prosecute them for corruption.

     

    A look ahead at a possible Buhari presidency

     

    Gen Buhari is a radically different politician and leader than President Jonathan, and his approach to security and corruption will be a sharp departure from the status quo, most likely for the better. When it comes to policies, however, there may be less divergence than meets the eye, especially in the economic realm. Many of President Jonathan’s priorities — power and agriculture reform, local content regulations, and selective liberalisation of the economy — will also be priorities under a Buhari administration, with differences of emphasis. Gen Buhari may additionally look to liberalise the rail, refinery and gas pipeline industries, none of which will be easy.

    Even though a Gen Buhari win may be the better outcome for investors over time, we are keeping our short-term trajectory (six months) at negative and long-term political outlook (two years) at neutral. In the near term, the post-election climate will be tense and likely contested regardless of who wins. But in contrast to President Jonathan, a Buhari administration has a different mix of assets and liabilities. On the plus side, a Buhari administration would be stronger in tackling corruption, more reformist in the oil sector, and less likely to allow politics to swamp the business climate.

    The reason we are not upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari’s policy agenda in a highly polarised political climate. His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta (Jonathan’s home region) that targets the oil sector. Former Niger Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats. The former Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND) barely exists, but it could be reconstituted. It is likely in the aftermath of a Buhari win that pro-Jonathan ex-militants disrupt oil production, potentially on a market-moving scale. The risk may not be sustained for long, as most of the former militants are more interested in collecting their amnesty payments, enriching themselves from oil bunkering, and tending to business interests in oil and security. Opportunists may see a chance, though, to gain leverage for future amnesty deals, especially as the current amnesty program rewards militants roughly in proportion to their rank and ruthlessness.

    Second, even though fiscal management is likely to be constructive, there are still some uncertainties about the broad direction of his economic team. The austere 2015 Budget proposal that now includes a low $52 oil benchmark (in the Senate version in consultation with the Ministry of Finance) is likely to be broadly compatible with Buhari’s own vision for fiscal policy in the near term. Despite some expansive welfare and public works pledges in his campaign manifesto, the oil price climate, together with Buhari’s top economic advisors, will dictate austerity at least this year. That’s also consistent with his track record when he was in office in the 1980s.

    It is not clear, though, that Gen Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors. Two different camps from inside his campaign will likely vie for control of economic (and other) policy. In short-hand, one camp is dominated by Southwestern (Lagos and surrounding states) technocrats and businesspeople while the other is an old guard of Northern aides and politicians with longstanding ties to Gen Buhari. The policy gap between the two is vast, with the first group pro-business and pro-liberalisation and the latter group more statist and nationalist in orientation. The signal from the campaign is that the Southwestern group is ascendant when it comes to the economy while the Northern group will get important posts outside of the economic realm, including national security. Such a division of labor would be positive for the investment climate, particularly since Gen Buhari is known as a delegator outside of his core issues of national security and to a lesser extent, petroleum.

    Gen Buhari’s likely approach to tax policy and tax enforcement is instructive. His emphasis, at least at the outset, will not be on raising or lowering taxes but rather enforcing the current tax regime, which is widely ignored by companies and individuals alike. Using successful tax enforcement models from Lagos and elsewhere in the Southwest, the administration would look to combine a zero tolerance approach (stiff penalties) with greater transparency in the collection effort to “plug leakages.” Plugging leakages is a recurring mantra among Buhari’s economic advisors, who are convinced that tax/customs enforcement, revenue transparency, and tough anti-corruption measures will bring billions of dollars into the treasury without raising taxes or even including oil revenues in the equation. That may be a hopeful assessment in the current oil price climate, but there is conviction behind it from the economic team.

    Having been the Petroleum Minister previously, Gen Buhari is likely to take a more hands-on approach to the sector. He will push for reforms on multiple tracks — reform of the NNPC, reform of oil revenue transmission to the state (plugging leakages), and reform of the fiscal/regulatory climate for oil companies, perhaps in that order. Buhari’s platform calls for restructuring of the NNPC so that it is leaner and has less regulatory authority (and conflicts of interest) in the sector. This could allow for the commercialisation of its upstream operations, allowing it to borrow on international markets to make its joint venture cash calls.

    The process is likely to be slow, with some pushback from vested interests. That will be countered by the president’s discretion to appoint the Petroleum Minister, the head and board of the NNPC, and many others in decision-making positions. While corruption will not magically disappear, there will be fewer sweat-heart deals for favored local companies or opaque oil swaps, and high-profile prosecutions will set a tone of accountability that has been absent under the Jonathan administration.

    A Buhari administration would funnel oil revenues to the Central Bank through the Single Treasury Account (STA) rather than through dozens of banks as is currently the norm. The Petroleum Investment Bill (PIB) will again be reformulated and probably streamlined into a far less expansive reform package; fiscal terms will improve of necessity for International Oil Companies (IOCs). This will open up a window of opportunity for passage of a far narrower PIB, especially if the opposition APC gains a parliamentary majority. Failing that, a Buhari government will focus on unblocking the many oil and gas disputes with the IOCs (blocked by vested interests) that are forestalling additional exploration and development.

     

    Philippe de Pontet is Practice Head, Africa, Eurasia Group.

     

     

     

  • Kwankwaso: PDP can’t  win presidential election

    Kwankwaso: PDP can’t win presidential election

    Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso is the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial candidate in Kano Central District. In this interview with KOLADE ADEYEMI, he speaks about his ambition, former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s exit from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the APC’s chances in the general elections.

    You are the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial candidate in Kano Central District. Why do you want to become a senator? 

    The idea came after the APC presidential primaries, which by the grace of God and the support of Nigerians, I came second. Many people were surprised because, initially, it was thought that the fight was between our two leaders, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. When we came back from Lagos, so many people came here and suggested that, under the circumstance, they thought I was much better than the person who got the ticket. In fact, one of the candidates was part of the team that came to me to say that it was based on the experience that I have had over the years; don’t forget that I was in the National Assembly as Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. I was also elected delegate to the National Conference in 1994/1995; and of course, I was Governor here before now and I was Minister of Defence. I was in the NDDC, before coming back as Governor again. Having told you my experience, you can judge to find out who is in a better position to serve the people at the Senator. I know the sitting Senator very well; we were together in the same party. We supported him in 2011 when he became the Senator. When we were moving out from the PDP, he was one of those who stayed back. Of course, he is not in our party. But, he made several efforts to secure the ticket (under the platform of our party), through so many friends. He even came here directly, but I felt at that time that it was fair for us to bring him in just because he wanted to get the ticket. Therefore, he had to go back and stayed there and contested to go back to the seat. I believe the Senatorial seat requires an experienced politician; somebody who have been tested and trusted and I also believe that my being in the National Assembly again is not just for Kano Central or the state of Kano, but I believe is for this country. As time will tell, we have done well in other capacities and I am sure we will do even better in the National Assembly. There are many national issues that require people with a lot of experience. In addition to what I have told you, don’t forget I was a civil servant for 17 years and I’m sure all these will come together to boost the performance of Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso at the National Assembly.

    What is your reaction to the exit of former President Olusegun Obasanjo from the PDP?

    His exit from PDP was another huge blow to that party for  obvious reasons. Obasanjo has got supporters not only in Ogun State, not only in the Southwest region, but across the country. For him to say what he said (because most of us who have worked closely with him know that he is somebody who always tolerate a lot of things) meant that something is wrong. I have not seen him since he decided to leave the PDP, but I can comfortably say that so much must have happened in the party for him to come out to tear his card and say he has left the party. Some of these people who made those mistake at the time of our exit, now, they are making the same mistake, and I hope that they will handle it in such a way that it would not create more problems for them and even for the country. So, I think the PDP has a serious challenge on its hands. In those days, when we were telling them to correct few things, many of them were telling us that whether we stay or leave, it doesn’t matter to them. Now, they have realised that there are some challenges. I had an opportunity to speak to one person then who was the National Chairman of the party. Then, he was telling me that the PDP was like an elephant, if it had one problem or the other on any part of its body, you will hardly notice it because it is an elephant! Then we were talking in the context of Kano—meaning whether there is Kano or no Kano, the PDP was an elephant, and can do very well without Kano; and you can see Kano being the most populous state in this country. Anybody that made that statement, then, didn’t really understand. Now, the realities are here and I can assure you that they are becoming jittery. Now, this is how it should be: everybody counts, everybody should be important. That time we were thinking of  16 years, they were so comfortable thinking of 60 years—now, let any chairman of the PDP go out and talk in that direction.

    But, Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido said the PDP has no business with the five governors that defected to the APC. What do you make out of Lamido’s view?

    Well, I don’t want to talk too much about the Governor of Jigawa State. Everybody knows that he was part of us. He worked so hard. In fact, he was the leader of the group. He took us to a level that we felt there was no going back, and we were surprised that he had different things in mind. He stayed in the PDP and we felt we had no business being in the PDP. I think if there is anybody who should criticise our exit, I believe it shouldn’t come from him or the governor of Niger State. I don’t want to join issues with any of my colleagues. Nigerians are the best judges on our actions and utterances; and of course what we have done. I believe that that part of the judgment will manifest during the next election. What we have done is not a secret; it is not something that anybody can hide; and I believe that we have done the right thing. We have contributed our quota towards deepening democracy. The PDP is no more the monster it used to be where nobody was important, where people were not respected. Even the governor of the most populous state who won election almost single-highhandedly within the party to come back as a governor, I was not being respected; they see me as an irritant and so on. But, I can tell you now if there is anything they can do under the sun to take me back to their party, I can assure you now that they know the importance of  Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso  in Nigerian politics. So, I have no business talking about my colleagues.

    How would you describe your relationship with the people at the grassroot?

    I am one of those who were not supporting autonomy for local governments, at least for now. Local governments need to work with state governments; and they need to work closely. Look at what we have been able to achieve in Kano in the last four years, working together with local governments. We have done so many projects and programmes that are beneficial to the state government and local governments and the good people of Kano State. Most of the local governments today find it very difficult to pay salaries across the country; even state governments. Now, we are working together, we  are giving them the guidelines they require to do very well now, and do more and better in the future.  If you look at our progrmmes and projects that we guided them to do—for example, you take the issue of IPP—generating electricity from Tiga and Challawa Dams—government spent billions of naira to construct all these dams, and in terms of power generation which facility was being provided, nothing was being realised over the years. Now, the IPP is a joint project. We were able to spend N14.2 billion to bring in the turbines. They are already on the ground, civil works have gone far, and now, it is just to couple them together, bring them together, and then, build the power house. Some of you can go to Tiga and see what we are doing. This is an investment, not for Kano alone, but the country at large will tap from the billions that have already been spent on these dams. Electricity is key in this country. We will have 10 mega watts from Tiga dam and 25 mega watts from Challawa Dam, making 35 mega watts. This channel from Tiga will automatically come to Challawa Water Works and Tamburawa Water works. They require five mega watts and five will to the streets of Kano in the night and in the morning we will sell it to companies who are interested. Now, these things are huge investment where these local governments will be getting income. Look at the micro-finance banks in 37 local governments in the state—all these have been done and it is an investment for the future of the local governments and of course of the state. We are not talking of five kilometre of dualised roads. It was unthinkable for any local government together with state to construct such roads in all the 44 local government areas—it is a heavy investment. Most of these projects are nearing completion; some local governments have already started putting street lights. Of course, drainages are being done. In fact, if not because of the issue of New Year break and some of the contractors who refused to come back because of the issue of February 14, thinking that there will be problem, most of the projects would have been completed by now. But, we are still pushing them to see that most of them, if not all, will be completed before  May 29. Look at technical schools—this is a huge investment with classrooms, with furniture, hostels, principal offices, workshops and what have you. So also School for Islamic Studies — 44 of them, one in each Local Government—this is a very huge investment in the area of education. Look at this foreign training and so on and so forth. So, we have invested whatever we got as state government—we work together closely with the local governments because these 44 local governments are the same thing as Kano State. So, we work together as partners and we are able to achieve so much in the last four years and these results are there for everybody to see. I am very happy that our state is probably the only state that is putting on the table every kobo we spend for everyone to see and verify.

     As somebody who is close to Gen. Buhari, do you think he is fit to rule this country, considering his health status?

    Okay, I am sure you must know that I am a civil engineer; I am not a medical doctor. So, my judgment is a lay man’s judgment in that area. But, I think the facts now are on the ground for everybody to see. My own judgment is that in the last couple of months, in fact, since the December 10 when we finished our primary election, there was this very rigorous campaign, rallies from state to state; and I think, everyday, it was two states or so. All these states were being visited by Gen. Buhari. In fact, he was highly impressed when he came to Kano; he was here very early in the morning. You have gone round the state; you have seen the mood of the state in terms of that visit. We were together with him up to at least, 5 to 6 p.m. on that day. All of us who participated were so tired at the end of the day. On that same day, he left here to go Jigawa by air; and he came back dead in the night by road, after the Jigawa rally. The following morning, together with him by road, we went to Katsina. From there, I left them and they proceeded to Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi and so on and so forth. So, initially, when they were saying he was sick, I was wondering whether he could pass this test! To me, I don’t think those guys were right, because a sick man would not do what I have seen Buhari doing or did in the last few months. Of course, I base my judgment on what I have seen practically; I’m not a medical doctor, and I have not seen records, so I cannot talk about that. But, I can talk about his performance in the last few months from December 10. In fact, even before the December 10, he went round almost all the states—and that was one of the success that I think the APC got. You know in those days, then in 2003, some people sat down and gave ticket on a platter of gold; in 2007, the same thing happened, even in 2011. But, this time around, he went round like any aspirant and that is how democracy should be.