The Nation Newspaper

Tag: Presidential election

  • Those who’ll shape presidential election

    Those who’ll shape presidential election

    They are men of influence. They account for the political actions of majority of the electorate in various parts of the country. When they sneeze, their supporters catch cold. When they are upbeat, all is agog. In next month’s presidential election, all eyes are on them as analysts make attempts to predict who would wear the crown. In the two major political parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), they are men who are qualified to call the shots by virtue of the offices they hold or have held; how deep their pockets are; their experience on the political turf; and knowledge of what resources and devices to deploy in running the race. These steamrollers deserve attention in seeking to understand the contest.

    All Progressives Congress

    When the party was formally registered in 2013, many doubted if it had enough time to make impact in the 2015 election. Besides, the National Convention to elect the leadership and therefore give it form and structure was not held until late last year. But, the array of men it has attracted from other parties made up for that teething problem.  Apart from the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a splinter group from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and a strong force from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) broke off to team up with the new opposition party, thus making it a reckoning force in the election. The men behind the merger and the building of the party include the following:

    Gen. Muhammadu Buhari

    He was a General in the Nigerian Army and fought in the civil war, though he was then a very junior officer. He went on to acquire experience in running public affairs as he served as a Minister of Petroleum Resources in the military government headed by Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd). Before then, he had been posted to the old Borno State. Later, in 1983, following the sack of the lack-luster administration of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Gen. Buhari became  the Head of State and served in that capacity for 20 months.

    On three previous occasions, Buhari had attempted to return to the Government House as a democratically elected President. In 2003, he fought the battle against his erstwhile military supervisor, Gen Obasanjo. He lost the bid as the senior General was returned by popular votes.

    In 2007, he came close to winning again as he contested on the ticket of the ANPP. He believed he was robbed of the deserved victory and approached the courts. Even at the apex of the judiciary, it was a close verdict with four giving it to Umaru Yar’Adua of the PDP, and three saying there should be a re-run. Even then, the four Justices who felt Yar’Adua should be retained in office despite finding the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) derelict in discharging its duty.

    Again, Gen Buhari took another shot at the presidency in 2011 but lost to incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.  Besides, he and his party, the CPC, lacked the capacity to harvest votes that had been carefully cultivated. That election showed Gen. Buhari as the most popular personality in the Northern part of the country. Everywhere he turned, the people followed him and, when he was declared loser, the youth in a large part of the North went on spontaneous rampage. They believed that their hero had been rigged out of contention.

    If the election showed he was so popular in the North East and West, it also proved that he lacked sufficient support in the entire South. His running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare, could not complement him electorally. The man lost but picked up some valuable lessons. This election has proved that he has gained acceptance in all parts of the country. While the religion factor was effectively used against him during the 2011 electioneering process, a lot appears to have changed now. The name – Buhari – has become a household name.

    Asiwaju Bola Tinubu

    Is this man truly overrated? He is seen by many, opponents and supporters alike, as a tactician per excellence. He moves, breathes, eats and drinks politics. There is hardly anything he says or does to which partisanship is not read. When he travels out of the country, it is believed he went to make consultations with local and foreign powers. His Bourdillon, Ikoyi, Lagos home has received more diplomats, political office holders and religious leaders than many Government Houses. He is seen as the engine of the ACN wing of the party. He is probably the only member of the 1999-2007 set of governors who still commands so much followership. This is partly due to his sagacity and partly to the location of his sphere of influence – Lagos.

    The former Lagos helmsman is seen as invincible. As President, Chief Obasanjo sought to crush him. While he succeeded in supplanting the other Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors in the Southwest, he failed in the state considered the most important – Lagos. And, thus, Tinubu became the sole survivor of the avalanche. He led the revival of the progressive machine in the Southwest, both at the courts and at the polls. Through judicial processes, he retrieved the mandates from the PDP for Governors Adams Oshiomhole (Edo); Rauf Aregbesola (Osun) and Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti). At the polls, Senators Abiola Ajimobi and Ibikunle Amosun won the race in Oyo and Ogun states. Except for last year’s loss in Ekiti, the political wall of Tinubu has remained impregnable. In Lagos, the most populous city having the largest pool of votes, Tinubu calls the shots. In 2007, despite the conspiracy of foes, he succeeded in handing over to his political ward, Babatunde Fashola as governor. All the political structures in the state revolve around him. In 2015, again, despite threats of defection and disaffection, Tinubu saw in Mr. Akinwumi Ambode, a former Accountant-General of the state, the trait of somebody who would hold out the APC flag in the governorship election billed for February 28. Akinwunmi Ambode won the ticket at the party’s shadow election.

    In choosing the presidential running mate to Gen. Buhari, Tinubu put forward Prof Yemi Osinbajo, who served under his administration as Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice. He was able to convince those who were initially opposed to his choice.

    All is pointing towards his holding his flanks in the presidential poll. He is arguably APC’s most formidable leader in the six states in the Southwest.

    Alhaji Atiku Abubakar

    He first appeared on the political platform when the Peoples Front of Nigeria (PFN) was founded by the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua in 1989. He contributed to funding the party and toured all parts of the country with his late leader. Atiku or Turaki, as he is fondly called by his supporters, cannot be discountenanced with in Nigeria’s political calculations. In 1999, he joined the PDP but chose to contest for the governorship seat in Adamawa State. He won. He was busy trying to raise a team for governance in the Northeastern state as governor-elect when Chief Obasanjo tipped him as running mate for the presidency despite the interest shown by the likes of the late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and Prof Jibril Aminu.

    If Atiku was taken by surprise, he did not betray it. He set to work immediately and is believed to have supplied most of the most hardworking members of the Obasanjo government. He used the vice presidency to firm up his nationwide political structure, using the Yar’Adua political machine as the building block. By the end of Obasanjo’s first tenure, it was obvious that Atiku was a master of the game. Almost all the PDP governors were virtually eating from his palm. It took his intervention to get a return ticket for his principal.

    In 2007, he contested on the Action Congress (AC) platform to succeed Obasanjo, who would hear none of a Turaki Adamawa bid. Atiku lost as the AC challenge proved too feeble. Atiku was the third runner up behind Obasanjo and Buhari. But, everyone on the scene knew he only needed to bid his time, join in restructuring the party and he would be the man to beat in future. His return to the PDP might have been a gross miscalculation as many of those who had backed him refused to move. He lost the confidence of his friends in the progressive camp and was not fully re-integrated into the PDP. He lost on both sides. It is no surprise why his return to the APC did not generate as much ripples as the previous. His presidential bid lacked the steam of previous attempts and, at the presidential primary election; he was third behind Buhari and Rabiu Kwankwaso. But, the political soldier in Atiku showed as he resisted any attempt to come up with a consensus candidate. The contest went the whole hog and the other aspirants gave credit to the man who has more political battle scars than anyone in the Fourth Republic.

    The Jada-born ‘Political General’ will be 68 this year. He remains a repository of knowledge and a great strategist, who the APC is lucky to have on board. He remains relevant in Adamawa State and is a known name nation-wide. At almost 68, he might not roll out of the APC again as he builds towards future elections. Would he still be contesting the presidential election? This is difficult to say as the factors that would unfold before 2019 are yet unknown. He remains a man of great means. He probably has more personal associates in all parts of the country than any other politician and is so sturdy that no politician would feel safe having the Turaki among his foes. If, Buhari wins, even if he is not contesting at the end of his tenure, he would have a very large say in deciding his successor. Besides, would Nigerians want another septuagenarian? It is too early to speculate on the future. For the present, the Turaki Adamawa is a formidable force in the APC.

    Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso

    Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, an engineer, has managed to construct a political structure that would stand the test of time in Kano State. He was elected governor of Kano State in 1999, defeated by Ibrahim Shekarau in 2003, but bounced back to reckoning in 2011 as he was swept into office by a political movement. It is difficult to understand the Kwankwaso magic. Even his opponents concede that he has posted a stellar performance in his second term, thus consolidating on the popularity that saw him defeating the ANPP backed by Shekarau and CPC backed by Buhari in 2011. Both Buhari and Shekarau were presidential candidates of their political parties, facts that could have swung the governorship race in favour of their candidates. But Kwankwaso won.

    He is said to have a rare charisma and a touch recognised and respected by the common man in the state. He contested on a packed field and surprised those who had thought he could make no impact. He was second to Gen Buhari and appears set to build on that. Kwankwaso appears to be holding tight his corner, and, with the Buhari magic equally sweeping across the country, his ascendancy on the political plane seems assured. In Kano, he is in charge. However, his impact seems limited to that populous and important state.

      Senator Chris Ngige  Until recently, the Southeast turf was believed to be reserved for the PDP and APGA players. This might have changed significantly given the performance of Dr. Ngige at the 2011 senatorial and 2013 governorship elections. He won the senatorial and put up a stiff fight in a governorship poll where the APC was given no chance. Yet, he has continued to support the party at all times. He is seen as a man of integrity having fought off a battle led by PDP chieftains early in his term as governor in 2007.  Within the APC, he is seen as a reliable and dependable leader.

     His popularity is rubbing off on the APC and could have penetrating effect in parts of the Southeast.

    Owelle Rochas Okorocha

    Equally, Imo State Governor Owelle Rochas Okorocha is a man made for the soap box. Every opportunity, before and during electioneering is used to whip up support for his political plan, irrespective of platform. He was in the PDP at the inception of this political dispensation, moved to found the Accord, then retraced his steps to the PDP, before leaving to contest the governorship of Imo on the APGA platform in 2011 election. Today, he is in APC and in fact the leader of the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF). He has gained a foothold for the APC in the state. All elections in the state are too close to call among APC, PDP and APGA.

      Many pundits would say the APC stands an outside chance of winning majority of votes in the presidential election in the state, but the fact remains that only an Okorocha magic could give the party a 35 per cent of the votes in the state.

    Peoples Democratic Party

    The party has many things going for it just as the baggage is sufficiently heavy. It is the ruling party and controls the agencies of coercion; it has raked in so much money that the challenge is how to expend it without attracting public odium and could use public policy to attempt to sway voters.

    Besides, it has some heavyweight politicians, who could make changes in their areas. They include:

    President Goodluck Jonathan

    The man appears to have learnt so much since he ascended power in 2010, first as an Acting President, then as an accidental President and finally as elected President in 2011. He could be faulted on the count of charisma; he could be said to have disappointed in crafting relevant policies; he could even be said to be lacking in presidential gait, but what cannot be denied is that he is a legendary survivalist.

    Starting from Bayelsa where he was made a deputy governor in 1999, he went on to succeed his principal, Chief Diepreye Alamieyeseigha as governor by sheer twist of fate. In 2007, against all permutations, he emerged the running mate to the late President Yar’Adua and fortune again smiled on him as YarAdua lost the ballet to live to a terminal ailment. The man died and Jonathan sprang up.

     In 2011, incumbent President Jonathan survived a campaign against his re-election bid. First, within the PDP where a vocal group wanted him denied the ticket, and later in the presidential election.

      Would he survive the swelling plot against his return? If he loses, he would be the first in the country’s history. He has solid support from his kinsmen in Bayelsa State, where the people he identified him as a worthy ambassador on the political field. This is the gospel being spread in the entire Southsouth. The solidarity in the oil-rich region is one factor working in the favour of this man who is the only one so far to have occupied political office as deputy governor, governor, vice president, Acting President by legislative proclamation and President. How far would the good luck carry him?

        Chief Tony Anenih

    He was once reputed as Mr. Fix It. His word, then, was law within the ruling PDP as he was a notable ally of President Olusegun Obasanjo. He was made Chairman of the Board of Trustees after serving as Works Minister in the administration’s first term.

    He had a mystique built around him until he was roundly defeated in the Edo governorship election of 2009. Many still remember the role he played in the trade-off of the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola’s mandate in 1993 when he was national chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SDP)

    Now advanced in age, not mush remains of that electoral value acquired somewhat, but he remains a major voice in the party, and buoyed by the Jonathan support in the Southsouth, Chief Anenih could still come out of this game claiming some votes in his clime.

    Governor Godswill Akpabio

    The Akwa Ibom State Governor is reputed to have performed well in the state. He points to having transformed the state. Although his opponents would call attention to the allocation received from the centre as the secret behind the achievements, he has managed to sell the perception of an achiever to the people of his state. He is today one political enemy many would think twice before acquiring in the state.

    Besides the perception and the political capital thus accruing, the money available to him is enough to crush any political enemy. However, a bid to impose a ward has divided his camp and may still count against him. But, in the presidential election, Akpabio, who is seen as an unofficial campaign manager of President Jonathan, has the advantage of the Southsouth sentiment serving as the wind behind his sail. He is one of the human capital being effectively deployed by the President.

    Governor Olusegun Mimiko

      The Governor of the Sunshine State who was officially a member of the Labour Party until last year is the anchor man of the President’s campaign in the Southwest. He is combining with Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose in this role. The duo might fail to make the desired impact but the party is counting on them to win substantial votes in their respective states.

    Governor Babangida Aliyu.

    The Niger State Governor is also chairman of the Northern Governors Forum. He lost some steam when he played games with joining the train out of the party and then backed out at the last minute. His deputy has ditched him and his party and the last election into the vacant Niger East Senatorial seat showed that the state is tossed up. In the presidential election, Aliyu is unlikely to measure up in the attempt to stop the Buhari train. However, his stay in the party would count for something.

    Vice President Namadi Sambo

    Perhaps, before the APC rally in Kaduna on Monday, it could be said that the Vice President, who once ran the government of the state, could attract sufficient votes on sentiment in the state. That would now be an illusion as almost all those who matter in the politics of the state  and party have defected.

      It remains to be seen, however, how much votes the Vice President could rake in to save the Jonathan/Sambo bid to retain power.

  • 2015 Presidential election and the southwest vote

    2015 Presidential election and the southwest vote

    Even though the Yoruba had never benefited, in a collective sense, from any PDP government, its current, undeniable strangulation under the Jonathan administration, has been as total as it is unprecedented

    Dr Doyin Okupe, my  dear brother  and  the gregarious spokesman of  President Goodluck Jonathan, could not have done  more harm to the  president’s  cause  than  epoch ally  dividing this campaign  and making it  one of  old Vs new,  good Vs  evil, of  a squeaky clean  past  Vs a filthy now,  a  past  of pristine morality and national discipline Vs a now of serial scandals, of  over 200 chibok  girls  stolen and  the consequent  crippling paralysis etc.  Okupe had beautifully pidgeon-holed his boss as the ‘now’, and GMB, the APC Presidential candidate, as the past, in a curious effort to present the latter as being archaic; forgetting what the present represents for millions of Nigerians who do not know where the next meal would come from or had been turned to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in their own country due to no fault of theirs except you want to hold them vicariously responsible by voting Jonathan in 2011. Before  telling  Doyin how much Nigerians have come to regret that vote, let me ask if he would, in all good conscience and with God as his witness, choose to have something like the present Nigerian circumstances instead of  the past, in his personal affairs? However, I expect that nobody is surprised that he listlessly categorised the candidates into a glorious past of a GMB-inspired order, discipline and anti -corruption and a Jonathanian present of unmitigated corruption, insufferable insecurity and total lack in which life has become extremely short and brutish.  The lacuna here, as in most of the  administration’s flip flops, is the failure to think through policy actions, even something as simple as properly categorising a campaign.

    While these thoughts should now concentrate his mind, let us quickly go to today’s subject matter – that is, the place of the Southwest vote in the forthcoming presidential election; an issue which, happily, President Jonathan’s crying neglect of the geo-political zone, and his unkind treatment of his Southwest party members to whom he doles out miserable preferments, have helped to shape in no small measure. Even though the Yoruba had never benefited, in a collective sense, from any PDP government, its current, undeniable strangulation under the Jonathan administration, has been as total as it is unprecedented.

    The president personally confirmed that much in Ekiti last June when he belatedly apologised to the people.

    Dr Olusegun Mimiko, the Ondo State governor, was quoted this past week, as saying that the Southwest will vote massively for President Jonathan. He was so sure he even suggested that it wouldn’t matter at all if the APC chose it’s Vice Presidential candidate from the zone. How he came to that conclusion, despite saying, in the same breath, that the Southwest has a long history of progressive political engagement, can only be attributable to a momentary loss of attention. Or how does President Jonathan or the PDP remotely represent anything progressive unless that word has lost its meaning?

    Although the governor was quoted in The Nation of Wednesday, 17 December, 2014, I had, a whole 48 hours earlier, reacted as follows to discussions on the Ekitipanupo web portal on the same issue: ‘are we by these predictions saying Yoruba do not know what is good for them – their collective interest? Haven’t we seen enough of President Jonathan in close on six years to keep deceiving ourselves? Are we saying that because one Lagos boy will be made a Minister of State for Defence or even an Ekiti a full blown Minister of Police Affairs, we Yorubas will forget what is in our collective interest? Are we saying Ekiti or any other part of Yoruba land must have a PDP government before President Jonathan promises to develop that state as he said in Ekiti during the governorship campaigns? And since that ‘victory what has changed? Because of the importance I attach to this matter, and, especially to remind my Yoruba compatriots that collective interest is ingrained on us and underpinned all of Awo’s polices, it will be my topic for the week in The Nation on Sunday’.

    The above was my reaction to some speculative allocation of Southwest 2015 votes which would see Jonathan win in Lagos, Ogun, Ondo and share the votes in Ekiti and Oyo. All these because of a rather uncritical reliance on Jonathan winning in those states in 2011, conveniently forgetting the massive happenings in these states and in Nigeria in general on top of which is  the horrifying conditions pervading the entire Nigerian landscape, from the swamps in the Niger-Delta to the grasslands, if not, the desert of the north.

    In my view, an unbiased evaluation of the extant condition and circumstances of the average Nigerian today would never arrive at such projections but I must say I perfectly understand the pundit’s reasons which I shall now proceed to discuss at some length.

    The first is his reliance on the 2011 presidential election. But it  is now well known that the president won in the Southwest in 2011 for two reasons: The first was Yoruba’s well-known empathy for equity and the underdog syndrome – candidate Jonathan was coming from a beleaguered Niger Delta whose oil sustains the economy, and two, that  picture of a seemingly penitent president, kneeling before a highly regarded man of God who happens to be of Yoruba extraction when, in reality, it was a premeditated political scam to deceive the Yoruba. Today, all those pious shibboleths have been completely blown to smithereens by the president himself. Witness, for instance, the peoples’ representatives having to scale the fence into the hallowed grounds of the National Assembly. I hope they know that Nigerians did not buy into that funny attempt to hang it on the Inspector General of Police. I am equally aware that the projections arose, in part, from the historic Yoruba Omoluabi respect for elders which led the author to completely exaggerate the electoral worth of some Yoruba leaders; leaders  who, though have paid their dues, but have failed dismally at elections in which their parties participated. Even though in six years the president has done nothing for the region which gave them their acclaim, they have nonetheless  become such fans of the president that they now eagerly endorse every of his policy and had, in fact, became the architects of some thus further eroding their electoral worth in Yoruba land. More amazing is the fact that even when the military high command says election 2015 will hold all over Nigeria, some of them are preaching a deferment of the  elections since it became obvious that the real reason for the convocation of the national conference was no longer achievable. For over a decade now, beginning from Pa Ganiyu Dawodu, these elders have formed political parties, many of them still existing as fringe political parties, they are yet to win a single House of Assembly election in any Yoruba state.  Any electoral analysis, therefore, based on the aforementioned assumptions which inspired the  projections, will only maximally hurt the president as it would encourage him to throw good money after bad as such effort will yield no  dividends in a Southwest where the serving APC governors have demonstrated uncommon acumen in ensuring a gargantuan, multi-sectoral development.  Concerning these developments, you need go no further than the ramifying infrastructural and other socio-economic developments going on, pari pasu, in all the APC-controlled states in the zone as well as the massive, all round development Ekiti witnessed under Governor Kayode Fayemi.

    The only way President Jonathan could attempt to make any impact in Yoruba land will be through rigging because, as my teacher recently put it,  ‘each Nigerian president believes it is his right to go and rig elections in any part of the country whatever the consequences’.

    I just hope they won’t dare this time around, no matter the level of militarisation.

  • Tunisians Elect President For First Time

    Tunisians Elect President For First Time

    In just the third free election since the early 2011 revolution in Tunisia that ended the 10 year regime of autocrat Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisians will on Sunday vote for a new president.
    A total of 27 candidates are vying for office but a race is emerging between a rights activist who says the election is a chance to stop the return of old-regime stalwarts and a veteran ex-Ben Ali official.
    According to statistics from the Tunisian electoral commission, out of the 5.2 million citizens who are eligible to cast ballot in the presidential election, 1.2 million registered voters are concentrated in capital Tunis and the provinces of Manouba, Ariana and Ben Arous.
    Meanwhile, next to this areas are the southeastern Sfax 1 and 2 electoral districts with some 441,000 registered voters, while the eastern Nabeul 1 and 2 districts have a combined 370,000 voters.
    However, just after about three years after the end of Ben Ali’s one-party rule, Tunisia has become a model of transition for the region by adopting a new constitution and avoiding the turmoil facing its neighbours.
    The election is an aftermath of a general election in October when the main secular Nidaa Tounes party won the most seats in the parliament, besting the Islamist party Ennahda that won the first free poll in 2011.
    Among the 27 presidential candidates, two candidates appear to be the frontrunners in the upcoming polls — interim President Moncef Marzouki, who was voted into office a few months after Ben Ali’s ouster by members of the elected Constituent Assembly, and Beji Caid Essebsi, who served as parliament speaker under Ben Ali.
    Lead by Essebsi, the Nidaa Tounes Party clinched the most seats by a single party in last month’s parliamentary polls, winning 86 seats. Nidaa’s victory knocked Ennahda into second place with 69 seats, according to definitive official results.
    With about 70% turnout of registered voters, the Free Patriotic Union (UPL), led by entrepreneur Slim Riahi, emerged third with 16 seats in the election to the 217-member parliament while the leftist coalition Popular Front coalition took 15, while another 15 parties divided up the balance.