The Nation Newspaper

Tag: Russia

  • OPEC plans Russia meeting for output cut, says Kachikwu

    OPEC plans Russia meeting for output cut, says Kachikwu

    • Targets $50/bbl oil

    Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu has said some members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are planning to meet other oil producers in Russia by March 20 for new talks on oil output freeze.

    Kachikwu who fielded questions from reporters in Abuja, expressed optimism that the meeting would spark a dramatic reaction in crude prices up to $50 per barrel (bbl).

    Nigeria has been pushing for action by OPEC because the slump in oil revenue has undercut its public finances and currency, leaving the government struggling to pay civil servants, Reuters said.

    He said: “We’re beginning to see the price of crude inch up very slowly. But if the meeting that we’re scheduling, it should happen in Russia, between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers, happens about March 20, we should see some dramatic price movement.

    “Both the Saudis and the Russians, everybody is coming back to the table. I think we’re very humbled today to accept that if we get to a price of $50, it will be celebrated. That’s a target that we have.”

    The Russian Energy Ministry said it was ready for talks but the date and venue had yet to be agreed. “Currently, various options about the venue and date for the meeting, where measures on oil market stabilisation due to be discussed, are being worked out,” it said in a statement.

    OPEC and Russia are still to persuade Iran to join the output cut deal.

  • Russia’s might is seen, but outreach still missing

    Russia’s might is seen, but outreach still missing

    A week-long visit to the Russian Federation reveals the hidden strength and weaknesses of a nation; the thick and thin of a country’s amazing history, art and culture plus the global consequences of transition from monopoly to a market economy. Adewale Adeoye who was in St. Petersburg reports:

    We arrived to meet a mourning nation. The trees stood silent, the flowers did not respond much to the slow, chilly wind. The sky wore the colour of death; the cloud was mucky. 224 Russians had just been killed in a ghastly plane crash on the Saturday that our Emirate Airline touched town in historic St. Petersburg.  But instead of boiling with resentment against their leaders, the grief rather bonded a people raised to be tough, hard and resilient.  I was attending a United Nations, (UN) conference against corruption which drew close to 1000 participants, many visiting the Russian Federation for the first time ever.

    A visitor’s first impression is carved in gold right from the port of entry. We met an extremely courteous, efficient and dutiful retinue of immigration officials, in spite of the tragedy that has just befallen their country. As we drove through the thrilling boulevards of a city home to about five million people and one of Europe’s civilization pillars, my heart skipped intermittently in a miasma of shock and excitement.

    Is this Russia that I read so many odd stories about? After an hour drive from the Airport, a friend companion scribbled in his diary, “Oh Russia, why art thou hid thy strength and the burning firmament of thy might?”  Amazement! The Russia federation amazed many of us visiting for the first time. The worse thing is to visit a society with a shoulder-load of prejudices and stereotypes, sticking like a stubborn stain.

    Since we arrived at dawn, the city was half asleep.  But as we inched into her vast vowels, snaking through tributaries of roads, separated by heart-rending canals, the city gradually walked up warmly to visitors, like a strong, affectionate, but old grandma. The buildings bore antique images of history and majesty.

    What struck the visitors first were the huge, massive housing structures that stretch like an endless collection of sedimentary rocks. In Russia, government builds homes for her citizens. A diplomat in the Ghanaian Foreign Service told our correspondent that each building has an underground apartment reinforced with concrete and that each was built with underground compartments meant to shield the communities from possible wars that may involve atomic attacks.

    A West European official who had lived in Russia for years told our correspondent that Russian housing units were built with conception of war and peace, following the old axiom of the Chinese father of military science, Sun Tzu, whose motto was ‘when in war, prepare for peace; when in peace prepare for war”. Yes. This appears a nation built on the ashes of martyrs: in 1916, during the World War 1, Russia lost five million people; dead, taken as prisoners of war or missing. The country fought two bitter World Wars, in which over 27 million souls perished; 1, 710 towns and cities wiped off and 71, 000 villages burnt down. “We are a product of a tough history. This is why we value human rights; we are cautious about wars, we are also quick to confront enemies of our nation’, Peter Rochovish told me as we sat down for a meal of oriental shrimps, rice and desert in a Sunday evening held in awe by a zero temperature weather.

    He said the West ‘spreads wicked propaganda and lies” against Russia, portraying “our country as underdeveloped.” He said fiercely, but without any iota of arrogance: “We are a world power in economy, science and the military. The West sees Russia as a bitter rival and seeks to destroy us.”

    The Russian-West feud is legendary and for obvious reasons. The old Soviet Union pivoted the modern socialist revolution, thereby becoming the property-seeking and individualistic West’s chief Albatross. In 1917,  Vladimirovich IIya nicknamed Lenin led the momentum that altered the map of human history and civilization, a zeal that sharply redefined the form and content of world politics. The Soviet Union did not only become the model for peasants and the exploited poor in the entire Europe, leading to worker’s revolts, she gave impulsion to deadly uprising in the world’s most populous nation, China; stirred the revolutions in Cuba, Vietnam, the entire Latin America; strengthened revolutionary movements in  Africa and the Middle-East and provided an alternative economic paradigm to blood-faced capitalism. Though the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the remnants of the ideology remains and continue to fuel succeeding liberal democratic and anti-imperialist campaigns in Asia, Africa and a sizeable portion of Europe. To a large extent, Russia inherited the alternative ideology. So, within the context of influence, economic control and manipulation of the continent, to most of the western media and governments, Russia is the devil czar, an “underdeveloped and human rights violator.”

    But millions of visitors that throng this country are making new discoveries about Russia’s potential and opportunities. About 10 million foreign visitors scramble to visit Russia yearly in the post-Soviet era. And one great nectar is St. Petersburg , the second largest city in the Russian Federation; and by far the biggest city in Europe that is not a capital. Of attraction is also the bourgeoning market economy that is rich in cheap, qualitative made-in-Russia products, ranging from essentials to supersonic cars, building materials, heavy-duty equipment, aircraft to top class furniture; offering the cheapest costs in the entire Europe. Contrary to the impression that Russians do not eat well, food here is unimaginably cheap and qualitative. “I’m surprised that Russia stands shoulder higher than many Western European countries I have visited” a South African diplomat told our correspondent in a chat over dinner days after we arrived.

    However, we did not see the grandeur of St. Petersburg, our chief host until the night of a Thursday after we were honoured with a scintillating barley dinner dance arranged by our host, the aged governor of the St. Petersburg province, Georgy Poltavchenko. As he walked into the silhouette backed with glittering neon lights beaming on his rostrum, he charmed the audience with his magical voice: “I welcome you to St. Petersburg, a city of history, a city of proud and honest people.” He added that the strength of his country is that the fight against corruption has been part of the history of the Russian people which makes the country to endure. After the show, the former EFCC boss, Ibrahim Lamorde, sitting close to him told me: “This country is good, excellent.” Russians are believed to be largely friendly, morally upright and non-discriminatory.

    Hardly will any visitor come here without being enraptured by St. Petersburg’s own intriguing account.  Founded in 1703 by Peter the Great, St. Petersburg was the imperial capital of the country for two centuries. It is a city that has seen intrigues, betrayals, torture, wars and triumphs. All these, plus the 1917 revolution combined in defining her strength. Russian historical cities are legendary. For instance, the Hermitage Museum was built 250 years ago and remains one the world’s biggest and most prestigious museum; the Winter Palace was built in 1723 and was the official residence of the Russia monarch. The St. Isaac’s Cathedral or Isaakievskiy Sobor, which is the largest Cathedral in the world is located at St. Isaac’s square. It was opened in 1818. There are the Church of our Saviour of Spilled Blood, carved on the spot where Emperor Alexander II was murdered in 1818, with its colourful onion dinner, the Catherine palace, built by the czar who hired a German architect Johann Friedrick Braunstern to construct a summer palace for her. I had no answer to a poser by a friend:  these monuments were built after the Benin Empire and the Ife Dynasty. Ife was established over 1000 years after St Petersburg. How come we could not reach this height? Our king’s palaces are badly kept and poorly managed!

    Apart from the fact that Lenin’s 1917 revolution shot Russia hundred fold into global dominance, the current leaders, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, have ensured the dramatic growth in economy. To most Russians, Vladimir Putin is an electrifying leader, intelligence, honest and dependable. Since Putin came, the GDP, for instance, has gone to 70% of industrial growth. Investments under Putin have increased by 125%, making Russia among the 10 world economic powers. This has been backed by government’s control of substantial part of the oil and gas sector. Rosnoft, the country’s largest state controlled oil company went public in 2006. Russia employs about 600,000 in her automobile industry. In 2008, it produced 1,469,098 light vehicles, controlling about 3 percent of total world production. A top Nigerian official told our correspondent that the Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund was tailored after Russia’s Stabilization Fund. The fund has reached over 30 billion dollars and has now been split into Reserve Fund, to shield the country from financial stocks slide, and also the National Welfare Fund largely reserved for pension reform. One major challenge pointed out by many visitors is that little is known about Russia especially in Africa and little is done her government to tame the wrong sordid images being created about the country. Another Nigerian official told our correspondent that Nigeria needs to tap from Russia’s economic might. He said Russian goods are cheaper while the country’s leaders are honest and genuinely interested to see real development in Africa.  It appears President Muhammadu Buhari is looking towards this direction.  Only recently, Nigeria renewed the agreement between the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) and Interfax, the Russian News Agency. Russia, an official told our correspondent, is sending a team to do a documentary on Nollywood, apart from an exchange programme designed for Nigerian youths to learn more about Russia in 2013. The trade between Nigeria and Russia is a modest 350 million dollars, but observers believe this is only a drop in the ocean considering the huge, inexhaustible opportunities between the two sovereign countries. As the plane touched down at the Murtala Mohammed Airport, no one needed to tell me I was back home. The MMA was as hot as oven, angry and furious officials shout on one another, there were no scanning machines to check the luggage of visitors. Touts with red-shot eyes prowled. I saw two engaged in a brawl, one had his teeth broken as blood gushed.  Security officials watched. This was complemented by a huge rat that scurried through my legs as I hurried to meet suntanned faces waiting at the arrival hall. One of the children waiting for me exclaimed: “Daddy, what did you buy? No light. Mosquito nearly kill us.”

     

    • Adewale Adeoye

    waleadeoye90@yahoo.com

     

  • NATO ‘worried’ over Russia Syria role

    NATO defence ministers will assess the “troubling escalation of Russian military activities” in Syria, the alliance’s secretary-general said, ahead of talks in Brussels.

    Jens Stoltenberg said he is concerned about Russia’s use of cruise missiles as well as air strikes, and that NATO is ready to defend all allies.

    NATO member Turkey said Russian jets have violated its airspace recently.

    Mr. Stoltenberg urged Moscow to stop backing Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

    Moscow denies Western accusations that it has mainly targeted Assad opponents, insisting its strikes have hit Islamic State (IS) infrastructure, and other militant groups.

    IS militants have seized swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq.

    A United States-led coalition has been carrying out air strikes against IS in both Syria and Iraq for months. But Western countries support rebels who have been fighting to oust Mr. Assad since 2011.

    The Russian air strikes had “weakened” IS, Syrian Army Chief of Staff, Gen. Ali Abdullah Ayoub, said on Thursday, enabling the army to start a “big attack” to retake towns and villages.

    The BBC reports that NATO ministers are meeting amid a deepening sense of crisis.

    They are expected to express their solidarity with Turkey as well as to address increased concern among Baltic member states following Russia’s involvement in eastern Ukraine.

     

  • US, Russia and the Syrian dilemma

    US, Russia and the Syrian dilemma

    Syria’s troubles were inspired by the fallout of the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia in December 2010. From the time Syria got embroiled in the Arab Spring in January 2011 till today, more than 200,000 people are reported to have died. Yet, the end of the crisis is not in sight. Instead, thanks to foreign involvement by Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants, United States and its allies, Russia and Iran, the Syrian crisis is festering badly and threatening to spiral out of control. One of the chief reasons for the stalemate is of course the fact that the ruling family, the al-Assads, belongs to the minority Alawite tribe, which is about 10-12 percent of the 23 million Syrian people.

    The active entrance of Russia into the crisis, particularly its bombing raids, are predicated on two main grounds: the fear that al-Assad’s fall was imminent; and the hesitations of the US and its allies. Indeed, under President Barack Obama, the US has appeared to be in retreat in the Middle East. America’s Sunni allies are increasingly frustrated by Mr Obama’s indecisiveness, while its Shiite enemies are increasingly emboldened. Sensing that Mr Obama was unduly too calculating and reluctant to deploy American power in the restive region, and even beyond, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, inspiring a Russian revival, has become more assertive.

    It is not certain that Russia will necessarily succeed in Syria where the US and its allies have appeared to fail, but Mr Putin, though a little imprudent, is determined to ensure the survival of Russian ally, President Bashar al-Assad. Right from the presidency of George W. Bush, US policies in the Middle East have yielded ground to the less bashful and more pugnacious Mr Putin. That push has seen the Russians expand and consolidate their borders in some of the former Soviet Republics, including Georgia and Ukraine, and are now expanding more confidently into the Middle East. With the American society at war with itself over racism, loss of religious values, and shooting madness, the US is gradually losing ground and influence globally, and in particular in the Middle East, as the world’s policeman and moral custodian. That decline will continue for some time to come, propelled more by its internal contradictions than by external pressures.

    Meanwhile, sadly, Syria is being battered relentlessly by foreign forces with different motives and competing objectives. Mr al-Assad should have read the handwriting on the wall in 2011 and emplaced a transition to a new, more vigorous and open society. That chance is now lost, perhaps forever. The precipitous and unguarded collapse of Muammar Gaddafi of Libya consequent upon the Arab Spring and the deliberate orchestration of the fall of Saddam Hussein of Iraq by the US predisposed both countries to anomie. The dilemma for Syria is that, as Mr Putin argues, should Mr al-Assad fall, there are no guarantees the transition can be managed well. Yet, as long as he remains in power, peace cannot be assured. As many analysts have also argued, the rising influence of Iran in the region and the anomie in the Middle East are a product of the diplomatic folly and miscalculations of the US.

  • Russia defends weapon delivery to Syria

    Russia on Wednesday defended its supply of military equipment to Syria, saying it complies with international law.

    In a statement, Maria Zakharova, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Russia had long been supplying weapons and military equipment to Syria, which was done under the existing bilateral contracts and in full conformity with international law.

    She added that there were Russian military specialists in Syria instructing local troops in using the supplied armaments.

    According to Zakharova, Russia might consider extra counter-terrorism aid to Syria.

    “If additional measures are required to boost anti-terrorism efforts, then, undoubtedly, these issues will be additionally considered, but exclusively on the basis of international law,’’ she said.

    Earlier in the day, Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov claimed that Russia would continue sending humanitarian aid to Syria using alternative flight routes.

    He made the remarks in response to the recent move of the Greek government, which closed its air space for Russian humanitarian cargo flights heading for Syria, obviously under U.S. pressure.

    Bulgaria on Tuesday also refused Russian flights to enter its air space on suspicion that the planes might carry military other than humanitarian cargoes.

    “Some countries are deviating from, what I would call, their international duty, namely, the provision of air corridors to the aircraft involved in the settlement of humanitarian problems,” Ryabkov said

  • China, Russia target U.S spies via hacked computer databases

    The White House is considering applying sanctions against Chinese companies and individuals who have benefited from the Chinese government’s alleged hacking of valuable United States (.S). trade secrets, which China has denied doing.

    Spy services in China and Russia, among others, are collecting and scrutinizing hacked United States computer databases to target American intelligence agents and officers. Foreign spies have penetrated government websites and emails, social media accounts and massive data troves containing personal information on millions of Americans, including medical forms, Social Security numbers and airline records.

    These data files are used to identify and track — or even blackmail and recruit — U.S. undercover operatives and agents overseas. The foreign spy services employ sophisticated software to reveal “who is an intelligence officer, who travels where, when, who’s got financial difficulties, who’s got medical issues, [to] put together a common picture,” William Evanina, the top counterintelligence official for the U.S. intelligence community, said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times.

    Evanina declined to say which countries were involved, but other U.S. officials speaking on condition of anonymity said Chinese and Russian adversaries in particular were aggregating and cross-indexing vast U.S. computer files for counterintelligence purposes. The Russian Embassy did not respond to requests for comment, but Chinese Embassy spokesman Zhu Haiquan said Friday China’s government “firmly opposes and combats all forms of cyberattacks in accordance with the law,” the Los Angeles Times reported.

    The White House is considering applying sanctions against Chinese companies and individuals who have benefited from the Chinese government’s alleged hacking of U.S. trade secrets, which China has denied doing. U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration has said China is the top suspect in the hacking of a U.S. government agency that compromised the personnel records of at least 4.2 million current and former government workers, the Washington Post reported Sunday.

    The Obama administration has scrambled to boost cybersecurity mechanisms for federal agencies and vital infrastructure. American intelligence officials have urged Obama to express concerns about Chinese hacking during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the White House on Sept. 25. U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said the military also needs to increase its cybersecurity systems.

    “We’re not doing as well as we need to do in job one in cyber, which is defending our own networks,” Carter said Wednesday, according to the Los Angeles Times. “Our military is dependent upon and empowered by networks for its effective operations… We have to be better at network defense than we are now.”

  • Russia destroys foreign food imports

    Russia has bulldozed a pile of Western-produced cheese and tonnes of other foodstuffs imported in violation of sanctions.

    The country has also steamrollered fruit and burnt a huge pile of bacon.

    The actions come a year after Russia banned some Western food products in retaliation to EU and US sanctions applied after Moscow annexed Crimea.

    The destruction has caused an outcry from anti-poverty campaigners who say it should have been given to the poor.

    One steamroller took an hour to crush nine tonnes of cheese. Another consignment was due to be burnt. Boxes of bacon have been incinerated. Peaches and tomatoes were also due to be crushed by tractors.

    Religious leaders expressed outrage. One called the actions “insane, stupid and vile”.

    Russia has suffered notorious famines in its recent history which saw millions starve.

    More than 285,000 people have backed an online petition calling on President Putin to give the food away. The petition says that food sanctions have led to higher prices and shortages that are causing real hardship. Food price inflation is running at around 20 per cent.

    Former prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov, said that 20 million Russian citizens were below the poverty line, commenting that destroying food products was “some real triumph of humanism”.

    The EU is providing aid for European exporters of dairy produce, fruit and vegetables to ease the impact of the Russian ban on those goods.

    The EU Commission said last week the “safety net” for Europe’s dairy sector would remain in place until March 2016 and for fruit and vegetable growers until July next year.

    There have been daily road blockades by French farmers – and on Thursday similar protests erupted in Belgium. They want higher prices for their produce, saying they are struggling to stay in business.

  • South Africa, Russia sign agreement

    South Africa and Russia have signed two memoranda of understanding on nuclear power cooperation, as part of efforts by Africa’s most advanced economy to lessen its reliance on coal and overcome power shortages that threaten economic growth.

    The deals, signed at the summit of emerging BRICS nations in Ufa, Russia, are between Russia’s state-run nuclear energy company Rosatom and South Africa’s department of energy.

    They call for joint projects to educate and encourage “public acceptance of nuclear power” in South Africa, the South African department of energy said in a statement.

    They will also include programmes for training specialists in South Africa’s nuclear industry.

    South Africa is considering using reactors from Russia’s Rosatom and Westinghouse for its planned 9,600 megawatt nuclear fleet expansion, an energy advisor to the government said in June.

    The country plans to build six new nuclear power plants by 2030 for between 400 billion rand and one trillion rand ($32 billion and $80 billion).

    Critics contend South Africa cannot afford the price tag against the backdrop of rising debt and sluggish economic growth, which is constrained by power shortages that trigger periodic rolling blackouts.

    The government has said South Africa needs to not only expand its capacity but also diversify its power mix from coal, which provides over 85 percent of the country’s energy needs.

  • Africa Israel optimistic on Russia

    Israeli real estate developer, Africa Israel Investments moved to a profit in the first quarter on the heels of improvement in all its business activities.

    The company said  it earned 9 million shekels ($2.3 million) in the quarter, compared with a 0.5 million shekel loss a year earlier.

    Africa Israel, controlled by billionaire diamond dealer Lev Leviev, said income from rent and operation of properties was largely flat at 138 million shekels.

    It bounced back from an 851 million shekel loss in the final three months of 2014 due to a revaluation of investment property at its Russian unit, AFI Development.

    Chief executive Avraham Novogrocki noted that AFI made a $6 million profit in the first quarter despite a challenging Russian economy. It made profit of $24 million in the first quarter of 2014.

    “In light of a certain degree of stabilisation of the economic Russian economic situation, in the coming year we will continue operating with cautious optimism in this sector and examine our next steps depending on events,” he said without elaborating.

    Still, Africa Israel said it was able to maintain a high level of visitors – 60,000 a day – to its AFIMall in Moscow while its occupancy rate was 83 percent. At the same time, the company has already sold 627 units in a residential housing project in Russia and during this year, it will start construction of a second phase, it said.

    In Israel, its residential housing unit posted growth of 35 per cent for a profit of 12 million shekels. Profit at construction and infrastructure subsidiary Danya Cebus grew 34 per cent to 19 million shekels and income at its Africa Israel Properties, which builds offices and other commercial buildings, doubled to 49 million shekels.

  • Russia cuts key rate to 14% as inflation eases amid slump

    Russia cuts key rate to 14% as inflation eases amid slump

    Russia’s central bank lowered its key interest rate in line with most economist forecasts, as stabilising inflation clears the path to boosting an economy buckling under low oil prices and sanctions over Ukraine.

    The one-week auction rate was cut by one percentage point to 14 per cent, the central bank said in a statement on its website Friday. Seventeen of 32 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the move, with nine seeing no change and five forecasting a bigger reduction. Another analyst predicted a half-point cut. Policy makers will hold a news conference later in the day.

    The Bank of Russia is slowing the pace of decreases after a surprise 2 percentage-point cut at its previous meeting in January as oil prices slipped and inflation in February soared to the fastest since 2002. Even with price growth more than fourfold its mid-term target, the regulator is answering calls from business to unwind December’s emergency increase to 17 per cent to buoy an economy entering its first recession in six years.

    “The current monetary policy and low economic activity will be conducive to the slowing of annual consumer price growth,” the central bank said in the statement. “As inflation risks abate, the Bank of Russia will be ready to continue cutting the key rate.”

    Inflation has more than doubled from the start of last year following a 46 per cent drop in the ruble in 2014. The Russian currency traded 0.3 per cent weaker at 61.3520 to the dollar at 1:37 p.m. in Moscow.

    The ruble’s collapse and Russia’s bans on food imports in retaliation for U.S. and European sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine helped stoke inflation in February to 16.7 per cent from a year earlier, compared with 15 per cent in January. Even so, it’s started slowing on a weekly basis. Price increases in the weeks ended March 2 and March 10 fell to four-month lows of 0.2 per cent.

    Higher inflation readings are the result of past factors and the Bank of Russia estimates price growth will decelerate amid economic contraction and shrinking consumer demand, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Price growth may peak at 17 per cent to 17.5 per cent, according to the Economy Ministry.

    “There is no reason for the central bank to focus on current inflation, which will continue to accelerate for some time,” said Dmitry Polevoy, the chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Groep NV in Moscow, who correctly predicted a rate cut to to 14 per cent. “Its policy is traditionally based on inflation expectations.”

    Pushing ahead with the rate-cut cycle will enable policy makers to focus more on jumpstarting the economy and pulling loan growth from four-year lows. Some banks in Russia have been blocked from global debt markets by sanctions that are hobbling consumer spending and choking investments.

    Gross domestic product contracted 1.5 per cent in January from a year earlier, according to a preliminary estimate by the Economy Ministry. GDP may shrink 3 per cent this year after 0.6 per cent growth in 2014, according to the government’s official forecast.

    “While inflation is yet to peak, the unexpected 200 basis- point cut in January indicated that the central bank is determined to ease the burden on the economy as soon as possible to reduce the risk of severe recession,” said Piotr Matys, a London-based foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank International who correctly predicted the 100 basis-point rate cut.