The idea of a third force seemed like a joke when former President Olusegun Obasanjo mooted it. But it is gradually becoming a reality, as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is gradually gathering momentum and attracting key figures from across the political divide. With the influx of new members into the party, can it withstand the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in next year’s general elections? Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the chances of the party.
THE spate of defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and other smaller parties to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has given the party a new lease of life. The party only won a seat in the House of Representatives through Hon. Kwamoti Laori representing Demsa/Numan/Lamurde Constituency of Adamawa State. It did not win any executive office or any senatorial seat. As a matter of fact, the SDP did not field a presidential candidate during the polls; it was one of the smaller parties that had an alliance with the PDP in the last general elections.
Before now, the SDP was just one of those fringe parties that are used by aspirants from one of the two major parties who lose the ticket of their parties at the primaries. After the last general elections, the image of the party had been tainted by the revelation that its National Chairman, Chief Olu Falae, was among the politicians accused of collecting money from former National Security Adviser (NSA), Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd), from the $2.1 million allegedly meant to buy arms to fight Boko Haram insurgents. The sun of N100 million was allegedly traced to Falae from the arms fund.
But, that is no longer the case today, as it has become the beautiful bride overnight. Among the prominent defectors to the SDP are two founding members of the former ruling party, Prof. Jerry Gaga and Prof. Tunde Adeniran. A former National Publicity Secretary, Prof. Ahmed Rufai Alkali, was also in the defection train. Others are: former Military Administrator of Katsina State, Sen. Joseph Akaagerger; Chief Mike Oghiadhome, who was a former Chief of Staff to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan; ex-Governor Saminu Turaki of Jigawa State; and ex-Minister of Defence, Dr. Olu Agunloye and a former Deputy Speaker of Ondo State House of Assembly, Hon. Dare Emiola.
Also teaming up with SDP are a former member of the House of Representatives, Dr. Junaid Mohammed; Sen. Bassey Ewa Hensaw; a member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Olamide Oni; a former leader of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the House of Representatives, Hon. Dipo Olaitan; a former Speaker, Oyo State House of Assembly, Kehinde Ayoola; Amb. Yemi Farounbi; Mr. John Dara; the leaders of the National Intervention Movement led by Dr. Tafawa Balewa; Amb Bejide; Shehu Gabam and leaders of the Middle Belt Forum.
The SDP National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Alpha Mohammed, said seven serving governors and 15 serving senators are on their way to joining the party. The SDP spokesman added that the National Intervention Movement (NIM) was equally negotiating with his party.
The SDP’s claim of being the ‘third force’ former President Olusegun Obasanjo talked about in his letter to President Muhammadu Buhari recently was reinforced when Hon. Emmanuel Bello, a former member of the House of Representatives, led over a thousand APC members in Adamawa State to join the party.
Today, there is palpable tension in the two major parties over the political future of the likes of the Senate President Bukola Saraki, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Yakubu Dogara, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue and others currently occupying top positions in the APC. Close watchers of the development say the above politicians were initially negotiating to return to the PDP. But, the emergence of the SDP as the third force is believed to have altered the equation. Obasanjo is believed to be spearheading the move to bring them to the SDP.
Adeniran also disclosed that members of the Coalition for New Nigeria Movement (CNM) will join the SDP for next year’s general elections, “because Nigerians will reject the PDP and the APC at the polls.” Former Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Chief Akin Osuntokun, who is also a member of CNM, corroborated Adeniran’s position, when said the group will collaborate with SDP in the July governorship election in Ekiti State. Osuntokun said: “We are doing that with the SDP because it is inevitable that election is coming and we have to be mindful of the timeline. It does not mean we (CNM leaders) have finally resolved to work with the SDP. We have only asked our people to contest on the SDP platform.”
It appears that many Nigerians are enamoured by the idea of a fresh option. The momentum generated by the call for a third force to challenge the APC next year shows to what extent the people have become disillusioned with the ruling party and the PDP. Observers say the two parties have in the space of 19 years alienated Nigerians from governance, thereby making democracy an exclusive preserve of the elite.
Owing to its misdeeds while in power, particularly the impunity it exhibited in its 16 years in power, the PDP is currently struggling to redeem its image. Though the numerous cases of corruption against members of the PDP are yet to be proven, they have generated negative publicity for the party, as the country gradually approaches the next general elections. Besides, the party is yet to fully recover from its internal crisis.
The APC is equally facing a credibility crisis. Some commentators believe the party has performed woefully in the last three years. For instance, in spite of the humongous amount of money being spent to upgrade the country’s security architecture, they argue, the situation is not getting better. They say insecurity in the land has become worrisome, despite the claim by the government that it has defeated the Boko Haram sect.
Even more worrisome is the heightened spate of killings in various communities, particularly in the Middle Belt region, by persons suspected to be Fulani herdsmen. Some commentators have argued that the country today is more divided than it has ever been in the history of its existence, due largely to the way and manner the APC government at the centre have been handling the matter. Serious accusations have been made against the security agencies, which are incidentally headed by mostly by members of the same ethnic group.
These were some of the reasons adduced by Obasanjo in the letter where he hinted about the possibility of a ‘third force’, after voicing his frustrations about the government and advised President Buhari to consider stepping down in 2019, by not contesting for a second term. Former military President Ibrahim Babangida also expressed similar views. It was however the accusation by Gen. Theophilus Danjuma (rtd) that members of the military that were sent to trouble spots to keep peace are colluding with the killer herdsmen that brought the message home to many Nigerians. In his statement, Danjuma asked the victims to defend themselves against the herdsmen.
The SDP has pledged to address the national question, by restructuring the country into a functional federalism, if it is given a chance by the electorate. The party stated this at its maiden National Communications Strategy meeting in Abuja, describing itself as the only ideologically-driven political party in the country. Its spokesperson, Adakole Ijogi, said the SDP will put to an end all forms of corruption, noting that the government of President Buhari has brought nothing but untold pain and hardship on Nigerians.
Ijogi said: “We have observed that the gross lack of capacity in managing the economy and the political immaturity in governance by the APC-led Federal Government has brought untold hardship, increased sectarian violence and polarised the nation into ethnic and religious camps.”
In fact, the last three years have been tales of disillusionment, despair and disenchantment. “The meeting unanimously resolved to be issue based in all its media and communications engagements, in its bid to firmly re-positioned the SDP, which is the only ideology driven political party in Nigeria.”
But, can the SDP withstand the APC in next year’s general elections, even with the influx of new members into its fold? Former Minister of Transport, Chief Ebenezer Babatope, does not believe that the SDP would evolve to be a dominant party before 2019, because political parties need time to develop. He added however: “If at the end of the day, the SDP develops into a dominant party, like its chieftains have claimed, good. Then, we will have three dominant parties. We will all be competing together for the votes of Nigerians. I think that will be good for democracy.”
A public affairs analyst, Mr. Jide Ojo, said it is too early to say whether the SDP would eventually emerge as a ‘Third Force’ in 2019 or not. He said: “I think that if five governors and about 20 senators are on their way to the SDP as they claimed, that will boost the fortunes of the party. But, whether they will be able to clinch the presidency is another issue entirely.
The National Chairman of one of the opposition parties, the United Progressives Party (UPP), Chief Chekwas Okorie, agrees that only a coalition of political parties, the SDP inclusive, can effectively challenge the APC in next year’s general elections. He said neither the PDP as it is presently constituted, “the SDP that is just beginning rear its head”, nor the UPP can go it alone.
He said: “Buhari is a very hard sell for the APC; I’ve never minced words about this. But the incumbency factor is also something I do not want to waive aside. But one thing remains clear — and John Odigie-Oyegun is beginning to allude to it – that it would be a tough encounter. The 2015 election was a different ballgame, because Buhari was the only candidate from the North. In that election, it was a matter of the North versus the South. The South was divided in that election because majority of the people of the Southwest had queued up behind Tinubu who was the pillar of support behind Buhari.
“Thus, it took the backing of the Southwest for him to meet up with the constitutional requirement and win; a feat he was not able to achieve in his three previous attempts. But this time around, there would not be less than three or four formidable presidential candidates from the North; I see about two of them coming from the Northwest and two others from the Northeast. I also see four of them coming from the Fulani stock. So, it won’t be an easy ride for Buhari, because he would not have the loyalty of the entire Fulani population or that of the entire North.”
Okorie said the APC has not met the expectations of Nigerians in the last three years. He said: “The party has divided Nigeria more than ever before. From the time of Lord Luggard till today, Nigeria has not been so divided. Today, regional loyalties have returned to the prevailing situation before independence and the First Republic era. Apart from regional loyalties, the level of religious sentiment in the country today is unprecedented.
“Even though campaigns have not begun officially, it is currently raging in churches and mosques across the nation. It has never been so before. The development is being fueled by the level of nepotism and the lopsided appointments that President Buhari introduced. I wonder what he would be telling Nigerians when he embarks on the campaign train.
“Be that as it may, we are in a Third World country, where so many other issues influence the way people vote. At the moment, Nigerians are so impoverished that the flash of the naira may make many people to buckle.”
Elder statesman and Second Republic politician, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, said the SDP may not be able to effectively challenge the APC in next year’s general elections. He said: “If you look at the way the APC emerged, it succeeded in winning the last general election due to the sentiment in the North then that power should shift to the region. There is no such sentiment in favour of the SDP for now.
“Besides, those coming together to form the coalition are not on the ground, in the sense that it is a group of elites that do not relate with the common man. So, I don’t see them as people with electoral value. How many of the leaders will win even their local government in an election? They only have the nuisance value of being able to harass the party in power. They usually feel too big to go out and vote on election day. Besides, they cannot subject themselves to party discipline; they feel too big to be under anybody.
“The evolving coalition is made up of people who are looking for patronage. These people became big men as a result of the political offices they occupied. But, after leaving office, they have become more or less political nonentities, because they have lost touch with the grassroots.”
Be that as it may, Yakasai does not believe that the APC’s position going into the election is unassailable. He said: “I can tell you honestly that the APC would rely on its ability to rig election in 2019. In the last three years, they have installed their supporters in strategic positions; most of them are people who served under Buhari before.
“In terms of performance, the APC has not lived up to the expectations of Nigerians in the last three years. They know they didn’t perform, that is why the President and a number of key officials are always pleading with the electorate to be patient with the administration. Such statement is an admission that they did not perform; otherwise why calling on the electorate to bear with them? So, in a free and fare election, it will find it difficult to win as it did four years ago. But, as I told you, the party is relying on its ability to rig elections to win, as it did in 2015.
“There are different ways of rigging. In the past, politicians used to connive with officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to rig. But that has been exposed. So, in the last general election, the APC changed the strategy. They deliberately created tension in the North, to scare away non-indigenes from the South who they believe would vote for the PDP. If you look at the statistics of the 2011 elections, particularly places like Kano, Sokoto, Katsina, Kaduna, Plateau and Bauchi, and compare it with that of 2015, you will realize that there was a sharp drop in the figures of those who voted for Jonathan. “Owing to the tension created before the election, most of the non-indigenes travelled back to the South, particularly the East, before the 2015 election. Some of them who could not leave the North for one reason or the other stayed at home during the election, because of the fear of violence.
“Besides, Buhari got high figures in the North because Card Readers were generally not used and everyone who turned up was allowed to vote. But in the South, electoral officials adhered strictly to the use of Card Reader machines. Prospective voters who had difficulty having their finger prints authenticated by the Card Reader machines were delayed, but later allowed to vote after filling the incident form. The strategy was to frustrate some people to leave without voting. So, even in the South and Northcentral, there was also a drop in the figures of those who voted for Jonathan in 2015, compared to the 2011 election.”
But, in spite of its perceived inability to deliver on its promises, it is not certain yet whether Nigerians are ready to turn their back on the ruling party for now. There is no doubt that there is widespread discontent with the APC administration, but it is not certain whether this would translate to a tectonic shift away from the party. Some observers believe it is not unusual for a government that rode to power on the crest waves of “change” to come unstuck after taking over power. It is up to the government, they say, to adjust to the reality, by injecting fresh blood through a cabinet reshuffle and by reviewing its policies. They argue that it took the PDP 16 years of mismanagement to get people to finally abandon them at the polls.
Thus, leaders of the SDP may be savouring the turn-around in their party’s fortune, but only time will tell if it will translate to electoral victory in the forthcoming elections.