All eyes appears to be on the April 11 governorship election in Oyo State, but from all indications, the battle for the three senatorial seats in the state would be not be less fierce and unpredictable, reports Remi Adelowo
The political climate in Oyo State has been turbo-charged in the last couple of weeks, no thanks to the heated campaign by the leading political parties all aiming at winning the hearts and souls of the electorate ahead the next general elections.
While the major focus is on the governorship seat currently occupied by Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the race into the National Assembly, particularly the Senate, has equally reached a feverish pace, with none of the major candidates leaving anything to chance.
Without any prejudice to the other registered political parties fielding candidates for the Senate, it is incontestable that candidates of four parties-the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the Accord Party (AP)-are, unarguably, the frontrunners for the three senatorial seats comprising of Oyo Central, Oyo South and Oyo North.
Another factor that would make the race even more interesting is the quest for another term by the current occupiers of the seats, all of who are household names in the politics of the pacesetter state.
The three senators are Olufemi Lanlehin of the Accord representing Oyo South; Ayoola Agboola popularly known as Halleluyah of the PDP and Ayoade Adeseun, also of the PDP, representing Oyo North and Central zones respectively.
In the run-up to the primaries of the respective parties, Lanlehin and Adeseun had defected from the APC following irreconcilable differences with Governor Ajimobi.
Would these men retain their seats or get swept off by new comers?
Oyo Central
The intense jostling for this seat currently held by Ayo Adeseun would, no doubt, be too close to call. The election in the district, which cuts across three major towns of Ibadan, Oyo and Ogbomoso, is between Adeseun, who hails from Ogbomoso; Speaker of the House of Assembly, Monsurat Sunmonu of the APC and Oyebisi Ilaka, the AP candidate, both of whom hail from Oyo town.
The dark horse in the race is Comrade Olu Abiala, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), who is banking on the influence of his party’s governorship candidate, Adebayo Alao-Akala, to clinch the seat.
Adeseun’s strength and weaknesses
A former member of the House of Representatives where he held the Chairmanship of the powerful Committee on Appropriation, Adeseun is vying for a second term in the Red Chamber of the National Assembly.
In 1999, he was a member of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and in 2003, he defected to the PDP before joining the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (now APC) on which platform he contested for the Senate in 2011.
Very popular across the district, he is an experienced politician with a solid structure strong enough to deliver on Election Day.
Beside his goodwill among his constituents, the lawmaker is also counting on his goodwill among constituents, support of the Presidency and his party’s governorship candidate in the state, Teslim Folarin, to retain his seat come March 28.
But unlike his election in 2011, Adeseun may find it tougher this time around. Not only has party’s popularity decline in the state, his fall-out with Akala, who wields a larger than life influence in Ogbomoso, may also count against Adeseun when the chips are down.
In Ogbomoso, his home town, three people are vying for both governorship and senatorial seats on the platforms of different parties. While Alao-Akala is vying under the LP platform, Hon. Fatai Buhari is the APC’s senatorial candidate for Oyo North. He is the third candidate from the town. Obviously, votes in the town will be divided across the three lines.
Adeseun is not likely to pull any meaningful votes in Oyo, where Sunmonu and Ilaka hail from and the remaining two local governments in Ibadan.
The senator would, however, count on the PDP’s strength in Ona-Ara, Oluyole and perhaps, Egeda local governments to get sizeable chunk of votes.
Ilaka’s best chance
A United Kingdom-trained tax consultant, Ilaka contested and lost to Adeseun in 2011. But the fortune of Accord has risen in the last two years in Oyo, making him a strong contender once again.
The candidates fielded by Accord are mostly riding on the fame of Senator Rashidi Ladoja, who is well known in the state. With the possibility of getting reasonable votes in Oyo, Ilaka is also likely to enjoy Ladoja’s goodwill in some parts of Ibadan.
Sunmonu, no pushover
A former employee of the British Immigration Service, she returned to Nigeria in 2010 to join politics. She represents Oyo East/Oyo West Constituency in the House of Assembly.
Described as a no nonsense politician, her tenure as Speaker has witnessed unprecedented peace in the House, judging by the vices that have assailed the parliament since 1999. This, no doubt, has boosted her popularity in the district and the entire state.
The APC and Accord had zoned the senatorial slot to Oyo due to the fact that it is the only town in the district that has not produced a senator since 1999 and this factor, pundits argue, would work in the speaker’s favour.
Her party, the APC also seems to be waxing stronger in two local governments in Ibadan among the five that make up the district in the capital city. They are Lagelu and Akinyele.
With her grassroots style and gender appeal, Sunmonu stands a good chance in the race.
The major hurdle she is likely to face is the opposition from Ilaka, whose popularity in Oyo has been on an upward swing in the last few months. It is, however, expected that with the alleged support of the paramount ruler of the town, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi, to her aspiration, the speaker could still record a good showing in her hometown.
Abiala stands an outside chance
Abiala, a renowned labour unionist, is in partisan politics for the first time.
An unlikely victory for the former Secretary of the Nigerian Union of Teachers (NUT), Oyo State chapter, analysts say, would be a major upset. But that is almost an improbable task for the Ibadan-born former unionist.
Oyo South
Can Lanlehin win another term?
The senator joined Accord from the APC earlier this year. An experienced politician, the distinguished senator hopes to win another term with his power of incumbency and popularity. He may also enjoy some goodwill in Ibadan because of the Ladoja factor, say political analysts.
But on the other hand, Lanlehin, who rode to victory on the platform of the defunct CAN, may not find it smooth sailing this time. The political space is not only sharply polarised today, the APC-run administration in the state is working harder daily to win more voters.
Another big minus against Lanlehin’s candidacy is what many perceive as his unprincipled political philosophy due to his flirtation with many political parties since the advent of democracy in 999.
From being a member of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in 1999, Lanlehin has crisscrossed across other political parties including PDP to ACN and now Accord.
Adedeji Otiti
The PDP candidate relies mostly on her party and gender appeal to win the election. The PDP candidate in the 2011 election, Kamorudeen Adedibu, was defeated by the incumbent, Lanlehin.
A relative greenhorn in the politics of the state, her political inexperience and lack of a strong network may ultimately be her undoing at the polls.
Soji Akanbi
The APC candidate, Soji Akanbi, was a governorship aspirant in 2011. Since he picked the APC ticket, he has been working to entrench himself within and outside the party across the senatorial district.
A follower of the late Alhaji Lam Adesina, a former governor of the state, Akanbi is close to key players in the Lam Adesina political family.
His party is an added advantage because it is popular in the district. But he must work very hard to defeat Lanlehin and also need to warm himself into the hearts of voters outside his immediate political camp.
Nurudeen Akinyo
Nurudeen Akinyo, who recently defected to the LP, is also new in Oyo politics.
A former Special Adviser to the current governor, he hails from Ibadan, but that may not count much when the poll gets underway on the basis of his weak political structures and inexperience.
Keen contest expected in Oyo North
Hosea Agboola
The incumbent Senator Hosea Agboola is, unarguably, the candidate to beat in this senatorial election.
A grassroots politician who is well entrenched in the district, the power of incumbency may also count for him.
He, however, faces a huge hurdle in his Oke-Ogun constituency, because the LP candidate, Hon. Tajudeen Abisodun Kareem, who represents Atibo/Saki East/West in the House of Representatives, is also a grassroots mobiliser.
Both former political associates of Alao-Akala, Kareem however followed his boss to LP from the PDP.
The major hurdle Agboola faces in the election is getting foothold in the three local governments in Ogbomoso, which Alao-Akala delivered for him in 2011.
Fatai Buhari banking on APC appeal
A former member of the House of Representatives, he is the immediate former Commissioner for Local Governments and Chieftaincy Affairs. He relies on his popularity and that of his party, the APC, in Oke-Ogun and Ogbomoso to win the election.
But, Buhari will need to work extremely hard to win the three councils in Ogbomoso, where Alao-Akala also hails from. Sources also say he must go the extra length to garner enough votes in Oke-Ogun to win the election.
