After an exact prediction of how the Oyo State governorship election would go on this page last week, BISI OLADELE, examines the factors and strategies that helped Ajimobi break the second term jinx to become a man of history
When Abiola Ajimobi threw his cap into the political ring in 2003 after a fulfilled career in the oil and gas industry where he retired as the Managing Director of National Oil, little did the people of Oyo State know that the Ibadan-born Management expert was a man of history waiting to be unveiled.
After winning his first election as the senator representing Oyo South Senatorial District in 2003, Ajimobi gave the governorship contest a try in 2007. He fought a good fight but he did not make it, though he was adjudged to have won the election against the then candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Adebayo Alao-Akala. He tried again in 2011 and won convincingly.
His victory again in last Saturday’s governorship election produced a new man of history as he broke the second term jinx. The jinx had reigned for decades in the state like a strong curse, weakening the hands of previous governors in their battle to win a second term.
Other Southwest states – Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Ekiti – had experienced two-term governors but it never happened in Oyo State until last Saturday. It became so popular at a stage that it looked impossible for any governor to achieve even as residents sang it like a traditional song to let any governor aspiring for a second term realize the futility of his dream. In a way, it was seen as a mark of political awareness and sophistication of indigenes, sometimes giving them a sense of pride. But others saw it as a reason for the stunted growth the state has been experiencing since the return of democracy in 1999.
But Ajimobi broke the jinx at the weekend, defeating his two predecessors – Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala – who also fought tooth and nail to be the first to emerge the man of history.
He beat them for the second consecutive time to make history as the first governor to be re-elected back-to-back, sending the two of them to retirement from the state’s political landscape. He had polled 420,852 votes to beat Alao-Akala who polled 387,132 and Ladoja who scored 275,773 in 2011.
This time, he scored 327,310 votes to beat his closest rival, Ladoja who polled 254,520 and his immediate predecessor, Alao-Akala, who scored 184,111 votes to clinch the third position. Ajimobi’s APC also won 18 seats at the House of Assembly to operate at a comfortable position as the party with the vast majority. The combination of Accord’s eight seats and Labour Party (LP)’s six seats are less than half of the Assembly’s 32 seats.
The Assembly result was a clear departure from the 2011’s where the PDP and Accord secured a total of 19 seats, a development that forced Ajimobi to enter into an alliance with Accord to enjoy stability in the state legislature. This time, APC’s 18 seats totally leave the two other parties in the minority.
Interestingly, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) came fourth without winning any seat at the House of Assembly.
Ajimobi’s victory is particularly symbolic because all other political juggernauts in the state contested against him in the election. Unlike in other states, there were five major candidates for the governorship seat in Oyo State. The remaining four were top political influencers who are strong enough to swing the results. They include two former governors who still have large number of followers across the state, a former Senate Leader and a top business man. But Ajimobi defeated them all to write his name in history.
The factors
Ajimobi’s performance
Ajimobi’s performance in the area of peace and security, particularly in Ibadan, a city that used to be known for violence, was a major factor. His accomplishments in urban renewal, infrastructural development and environmental management also spoke for him in the election. His administration constructed quality roads across the state, revived the abandoned Agodi Garden which has now become the only standard government resort centre in the state as well as beautified the environment.
These resulted in APC gaining more votes in Ladoja’s strongholds in Ibadan such as Egbeda, Akinyele, Ona-Ara, Lagelu and Ibadan North East local governments which ultimately reduced the latter’s chances of recording unusually high number of votes in the areas.
Consequently, unlike in 2011, Ajimobi gave Ladoja a close run in such councils. For instance, in Egbeda, while Ladoja scored 15,811 to defeat others, Ajimobi polled 13,495. In Akinyele where Ladoja polled 14,793 to lead others, Ajimobi polled 12,367. The results were similar in Ona-Ara, Ibadan South East and Lagelu where Ladoja won. The only different council was Ibadan North East where Ladoja led Ajimobi with about 10,000 votes.
With the performance, Ajimobi sustained his popularity in Ibadan and Oke-Ogun.
The Buhari factor
The consummation of the APC, its highly successful presidential primary and eventual victory at the federal level earned more votes for the APC in Oyo State. It contributed to the party’s strength and further weakened the opposition.
For the first time, some voters saw wisdom in allowing the state to enjoy the reward of being in a progressives’ party that produced the president. Going to the opposition, some argued, was needless and would further hinder the rate at which the state should develop.
This factor also helped in a way to produce three senators and 12 members of House of Representatives who returned to their constituencies to campaign vigorously for Ajimobi’s victory.
Weak opposition
One important factor that helped Ajimobi rewrite history is that the opposition is weak in Oyo State. But the weakness is not about lack of criticism or monitoring of government activities. It is in the popularity or otherwise of its candidates.
His closest rival, Rashidi Ladoja is only popular in Ibadan, the state capital. His party, Accord, won in only one local government outside Ibadan in the just concluded governorship election. Even at that, his popularity is restricted to Ibadan less cities and Ibadan North East Local Government.
As for Alao-Akala, his popularity is restricted to Ogbomoso and a part of Oke-Ogun where he eventually won a House of Assembly seat.
The PDP in the state broke down completely when Akala and Seyi Makinde defected to other parties to contest as candidates.
Hence, for voters who might not like Ajimobi, many of them had problem of finding a better candidate in his opponents who could match the person of the incumbent governor and the strength of the APC whose popularity is soaring across Nigeria.
These and other factors contributed to Ajimobi’s unprecedented success.
The strategies
Against expectation, Ajimobi attracted so much criticism and condemnation from opposition parties and a section of the populace. His urban renewal policy was singled out for virulent criticism. So was his decision to award some contracts to non-politicians. His second term ambition also pitted him against some others who believed that such ambition would affect theirs or negatively affect their future political career.
Realizing this midway into his four-year tenure, Ajimobi employed some strategies to beat his opponents.
Establishing direct relationship with traditional rulers, associations, groups and communities
From the time the governor realized that he was losing some party supporters to the opposition due to the reasons stated above, he developed a personal relationship with opinion leaders including traditional rulers, associations and groups. He invited them for meetings regularly, listened to their criticism and advice and borrowed from their wealth of advice.
He also visited communities, observing his Jumat service at their central mosques. After the service, the governor held town hall meetings with them, offering opportunity for heart-to-heart discussions on the needs of the communities. It also allowed locals to have a personal feel of their governor.
Ajimobi also visited popular markets, using the same technique to listen to market women, other traders and offered solution to their challenges where possible.
The meetings also offered him the opportunity to clear air on certain criticism and condemnation by the opposition.
Interest-free loans for traders and artisans
Realizing that women and artisans vote more than the elite, the governor deliberately facilitated interest-free trading loans for traders and artisans across the state. He gave over N500 million. They are to borrow a lump sum, use for some months and return to the coffer of the unions to enable others access it. The loans rejuvenated the business of many of them and endeared them to Ajimobi.
Meeting specific needs of communities
Ajimobi deliberately enhanced economic strength of many communities to earn their support. For instance, while he could not establish a tertiary institution in Oke-Ogun which is the people’s topmost desire, the governor granted full autonomy to the existing Saki campus of The Polytechnic, Ibadan, renaming it Oke-Ogun Polytechnic. He also established a school of nursing at Kisi in Irepo Local Government area of the zone.
The governor also completed the permanent orientation camp of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) located in Iseyin which he described as the best in the country and also constructed the first dual carriage way in Iseyin.
In Ibarapa Zone, he granted full autonomy to the Eruwa campus of The Polytechnic, Ibadan as well as the Lanlate campus of the state’s college of education. He also repaired the abandoned water works in Ayete.
In Ogbomoso, Ajimobi dualized the main road into the town in addition to those he dualized around the Soun’s palace. He also renovated the town hall.
In Oyo Zone, aside dualization of two major roads, the governor established an FM radio station under the state’s broadcasting corporation, renovated the town hall and constructed a silo for agricultural produce.
Appointment of more politicians
Ajimobi ranks first among governors who patronized politicians with appointments. Aside creating new ministries which gave room for more politicians to be commissioners, the governor appointed liaison officers for each local government in addition to the 33 local government chairmen and caretaker committee members. He appointed so many special assistants and senior special assistants who were drawn equally from the five zones across the state. Ajimobi still gave appointments as late as January this year to those he considered important to his success.
Women mobilizing women
His wife, Mrs Florence Ajimobi has been a strong mobilizer of the women folk since she became the First Lady in 2011. By starting off with programmes such as Ajumose Food Bank through which she distributes food to rural women and Educate a Rural Child with which she provides school uniform and books to rural school pupils, Mrs Ajimobi has had personal encounter with women and children across the 33 local governments. She also organizes regular Christian women prayer services for the state.
When election came, she found it so easy to have the ears of the women in large markets, local communities and across the two major religions. She devoted good time to mobilizing women all over the state for the cause of her husband.
She accomplishes this with the support of all appointed women in the government including wives of local government chairmen.
Scaling down the ladder
Former leader of the party, the late Lam Adesina and business mogul, AbdulAzeez Arisekola Alao were strong pillars of support for the Ajimobi’s administration. They managed the political aspect of his leadership while he concentrated more on governance. But the two died before election came.
As soon as Arisekola died last year, Ajimobi threw his door open to all. He entertained all manners of visitors who wanted one form of assistance or the other. He maintained a personal contact with people on individual level, a decision that helped him gain a better insight about perception of his leadership.
Within a short time, a once distant performing but misunderstood governor became one that bonded closely with even the common man on the street.
Teachers for their communities
One strategy that worked for the governor was the employment of 5,300 teachers at once. The beauty of the move was that teachers were recruited from their localities and posted there. The decision was taken to redress a similar gesture by the Ladoja administration in 2005 which created a serious problem of huge application for transfer back to their localities.
Aside providing employment on a large scale, the teaching and non-teaching staff filled several vacancies in public primary and secondary schools to bring an end to such complaints.
Appointees’ input
All the appointees were last year given order to come up with strategies to mobilize support from their localities. By the time they finished their assignments after a few months local support grew tremendously for the administration.
The strategies created a sense of belonging for all stakeholders as the leaders became so close to the led, perhaps on a scale that is unprecedented in the history of the state.
The outcome
As predicted last Wednesday, the results in each zone is given below.
Oyo Zone
Ajimobi won by polling 35,857 votes to beat Ladoja who scored 22,661 votes. Others came behind them.
Ibadan Zone
Ajimobi won by polling 162,207 as against Ladoja’s 159,350 votes. Others came behind them.
Ibarapa Zone
Ajimobi won. He scored 17,364 to beat Ladoja who polled 15,813. Others scored less.
Oke-Ogun Zone
Ajimobi defeated others by polling 87,254 votes. Ladoja polled only 41,391 votes to come second.
Ogbomoso Zone
Alao-Akala won by polling 73,553 votes to beat Ajimobi who scored 24,628 votes to come second.
The results confirmed this reporter’s prediction last Wednesday.
Oyo zone
APC: 35857
Accord: 22661
Labour Party: 17935
PDP: 5940
SDP: 2495
Ogbomoso zone
APC: 24628
Accord: 15305
Labour Party: 73553
PDP: 10493
SDP: 11611
Oke-Ogun zone
APC: 87254
Accord: 41391
Labour Party: 38460
PDP: 26856
SDP: 10095
Ibarapa Zone
APC: 17364
Accord: 15813
Labour Party: 7767
PDP: 9071
SDP: 4659
Ibadan zone
APC: 162207
Accord: 159350
Labour Party: 46396
PDP: 26639
SDP: 33070
