Tag: tinubu

• By Egajivwie Frank Odiri

AS the 2027 general elections inch closer, political realignments are intensifying, with opposition forces attempting to consolidate under a unified front to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s anticipated re-election bid. Central to this movement is a newly energized coalition of political heavyweights and estranged allies, now rallying under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has been adopted as the coalition’s official platform. Despite the growing momentum, declarations of intent, and calculated media optics, a realistic analysis of Nigeria’s current political terrain suggests that unseating Tinubu in 2027 remains highly improbable.

One of the pivotal figures driving the coalition’s resurgence is former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. His increasingly vocal opposition to President Tinubu, following his exit from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has transformed him into a symbolic figure for anti-establishment forces within and beyond the North. El-Rufai’s role in repositioning the ADC is widely viewed as a personal political rebirth following his exclusion from the federal cabinet. Once a key ally during the anti-PDP era, El-Rufai has now recast himself as a strategic adversary, aligning with similarly disenchanted figures across party lines. While some observers believe the two men—one a technocrat, the other a master tactician—could have collaborated for national development, it appears Tinubu is playing the long game, prioritizing loyalty and stability over risky alliances.

With El-Rufai and others working behind the scenes, the ADC coalition is reportedly weighing a shortlist of potential presidential candidates. Names such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, and a yet-to-be-named northern consensus figure have surfaced. However, each of these options presents its own set of political liabilities. Obi and Amaechi, as southern candidates, face the hurdle of regional sentiment in a country still heavily influenced by geopolitical balance. Despite Obi’s energetic youth support and Amaechi’s residual appeal in parts of the South-South, both would struggle to gain serious traction in the North, a region that remains electorally decisive. Northern power brokers, even those disgruntled with Tinubu, may be reluctant to back another southerner so soon after Buhari’s tenure ended just four years ago.

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This dilemma plays directly into the hands of Tinubu’s northern allies, who would deploy a simple but effective message: why replace a southern president with another southerner when the South is only halfway through its expected eight-year rotation? This sentiment would resonate not just with northern conservatives but also with swing voters in the Middle Belt and parts of the North-West, where regional loyalty often outweighs partisan ideology.

Alternatively, a northern candidate such as Atiku Abubakar might energize parts of the northern electorate, particularly in the North-East and some sections of the North-West. But this would immediately alienate large portions of the South-West and South-South, who widely believe that power must remain in the South until 2031. The memory of Buhari’s eight-year northern presidency is still fresh, and many southern voters, across political affiliations, would likely resist any attempt to return the presidency to the North prematurely. Even the North-Central region, traditionally viewed as a swing bloc, would be a tough sell. Atiku’s inability to win a single state in the zone during the 2023 elections remains instructive.

Beyond candidate dynamics, the coalition faces the formidable barrier of incumbency. President Tinubu occupies the most powerful office in the land, with access to the levers of federal power, appointments, security coordination, and project implementation. As with his predecessors, the sitting president has enormous tools at his disposal to build alliances, reward loyalty, and neutralize opposition. Federal appointments and strategic development interventions are already being deployed across key geopolitical zones, signaling a clear intent to expand Tinubu’s base ahead of 2027.

The APC, despite internal friction, remains the most organized political machine in Nigeria. It has nationwide structures, entrenched grassroots networks, and institutional knowledge of electoral battlefields. By contrast, the opposition is still fractured. The ADC, PDP, Labour Party, and SDP are all pulling in different directions without a unified ideology, message, or clear roadmap. The idea that this loose arrangement can produce a single, widely accepted candidate with a cohesive campaign strategy and viable path to victory is, at this stage, far-fetched.

Moreover, Tinubu is not a political novice riding on incumbency alone. He is a seasoned strategist who spent years building alliances, cultivating loyalty, and managing the political ecosystem from the shadows before stepping into the presidency. Since assuming office, he has continued to consolidate power through calculated appointments, policy manoeuvres, and outreach to previously skeptical constituencies. Even regions that gave him low support in 2023 are beginning to see increased federal presence—a deliberate effort to recalibrate regional sentiment ahead of the next polls.

Finally, there is the question of national mood and the unwritten rule of regional power rotation. There exists a widespread consensus, particularly in the South and Middle Belt, that the presidency should remain in the South until 2031. This is not just a political argument but one rooted in the country’s fragile sense of fairness, equity, and national cohesion. Any effort by the opposition coalition to reverse this sentiment by fielding a northern candidate could provoke backlash and drive moderate southern voters back into Tinubu’s camp, even if reluctantly.

While the adoption of the ADC as a coalition platform may give the opposition a semblance of structure, it does little to address the fundamental strategic and electoral challenges that lie ahead. Without a clear ideological foundation, credible nationwide structures, and a candidate capable of uniting both the North and South, the coalition’s mission remains aspirational at best.

President Tinubu, for all the criticisms his administration may face, retains a firm grip on power, a strategic understanding of Nigeria’s political terrain, and the advantage of incumbency. For now, the path to Aso Rock in 2027 is still his to lose.

• Egajivwie Frank Odiri is a Public Affairs Analyst. He writes from Agbor, Delta State. Contact: lymonfranky80@gmail.com