Several factors would determine the outcome of Saturday’s governorship election in Imo State. Governor Hope Uzodimma, who is seeking a second term on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), remains the candidate to beat for many reasons. But, he has to contend with factors such as the insecurity in the state, the clamour for power shift or zoning and the growing popularity of the opposition parties. Correspondent CHRIS NJOKU reports.
Saturday’s governorship election in Imo State is expected to be a keenly contested one. All eyes are on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct the election in a manner to achieve transparency and restore the confidence of the people in the electoral process. Against the background of INEC’s conduct during the just concluded general election, there are question marks over the capacity of the electoral umpire to achieve transparency.
The commission has however assured that it has concluded all processes that will enable it to conduct a free, fair, transparent and credible election. The commission said about 2.3 million people have collected their permanent voters card (PVC); out of the 2. 42 million registered voters.
Elections will take place in 4,720 polling units out of the total number of 4,758 polling units, according to the commission. It added that there will be no elections in 38 polling units where voter registration did not take place due to insecurity. So far, INEC has concluded 11 activities out of the 13 on their programme. The two outstanding activities are the last day of the campaign and the election itself.
Eighteen candidates have been cleared to contest the election. The prominent ones are the incumbent Governor Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Samuel Anyanwu of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Senator Athan Achonu of the Labour Party (LP).
The forthcoming off-cycle governorship election has put Imo State in the spotlight. Some of the issues that will determine the outcome of the election are personalities, power of incumbency, strength of the political parties, insecurity, voter participation and zoning.
Personality:
Personality may well be one of the biggest factors that would determine the outcome of the election. It is important, given that Imo voters have emphasised during this election cycle that they want candidates who are perceived as honest, caring, and competent.
Uzodimma:
Governor Uzodimma’s performance in office in the last three and half years, particularly in the area of road construction and his campaign strategy are key factors in the election.
Anyanwu:
Senator Anyanwu is also the PDP national secretary. His popularity and some of his campaign promises, such as that of revamping the healthcare system by providing adequate facilities and equipment, as well as training and retraining of healthcare workers could also be pivotal in determining the outcome of the election.
Achonu:
The LP candidate’s popularity and some of his campaign promises, such as conducting local government elections within six and the idea of 45 per cent inclusion of women in his government could be an advantage in the contest.
Power of incumbency:
The biggest factor that may propel Governor Uzodimma’s re-election is his power of incumbency. The power of incumbency is a big factor in elections in this clime. This is such that it will take a lot for a candidate of an opposition party to unseat a sitting governor in Nigeria.
The ruling APC is well entrenched in the nooks and crannies of Omo State; it controls 25 out of the 27 local governments.
Strength of the parties:
The three major parties in the election have suffered setbacks due to intrigues and internal party crises. Imo State has a history of political campaigns that have been characterized by intrigues and internal crises within political parties. Disputes or lack of it within the major parties in this contest can, therefore, be one of the biggest factors that could determine the outcome of the election. This includes disagreements over candidate selection, party leadership, and policy positions.
The majority of the parties in the race have been weakened by crises emanating from their governorship primaries because of a lack of ability to manage such internal conflicts effectively. This is likely to impact strongly on the outcome of the election.
Voter participation:
The number of voters that turn out to vote on election day usually determines the outcome of an election. In this particular case, Imo has a history of voter apathy. A civil society organization, Yiaga Africa, recently observed that some parts of the state, including Orlu, Orsu, Ehime Mbano, Oru East, Oru West and Okigwe Local Government Areas are particularly noted for voter apathy.
This is because they are prone to violence as a result of security challenges in the state. In some cases, violence and insecurity can prevent people from voting. In others, people can be intimidated into voting for a candidate against their wishes. So, the insecurity in the state could adversely affect the conduct of the election.
Imo State has been a battleground in recent times, with both the ruling and the opposition parties winning and losing interchangeably in different elections.
Zoning:
The raging debate on zoning is another crucial factor that may affect the outcome of Saturday’s election in Imo State. It is centred around which senatorial district should produce the next governor. There has been a clamour by political leaders for the governorship position to be zoned to the Imo East Senatorial District this time around. But, it remains a contentious issue because there are disagreements among political stakeholders over which zone should produce the next governor.
The Imo Charter of Equity, which was initiated in 1999 and truncated in 2011 is meant to clear the path for a smooth transfer and rotation of the office of governor between the three senatorial zones of Okigwe, Orlu, and Owerri. But, it has not. The stakeholders of the Owerri Senatorial District, for instance, have rejected the new charter, alleging that it was being foisted on the state by the incumbent governor who hails from the Orlu zone that has produced the governor in the last 20 years. They argue that Okigwe has tasted the seat for four years while Owerri zone has only occupied the seat for seven months.
Uzodimma has challenged the leaders of Owerri zone to unite and forge a common front to enable them to succeed him. He has pledged to implement the Imo Charter of Equity after his second term. As a result, he has enjoined them to back him to secure his second term. Some analysts believe that the endorsement the governor has received from the Owerri zone may swing the pendulum in his favour. So, the zoning debate may play a significant role in the election, as people may turn out to be either for or against the incumbent governor.
Overall, Saturday’s governorship election is likely to be shaped by a range of other factors, including those related to security, the economy, and infrastructure. The incumbent governor’s record on these issues is likely to tip the scale in his favour.
