‘He will win, who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”.. Sun Tzu, Chinese Military General, Strategist and Philosopher’
Look before you Leap!
The recent escalation of imbroglio between the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike and his political godson, Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, with the resumption of impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara, by the Rivers State House of Assembly; is a Zero-Sum Game by Nyesom Wike. This will most likely be the defining moment the power tussle between the political godfather and his political godson.
The imbroglio has taken a new dramatic dimension, as Minister Wike has unleashed verbal attacks and threats on the National Secretary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Ajibola Basiru and anyone who shows any form of support for Governor Fubara, or anyone that calls for reasoning, logic or political solution to prevail.
With the verbal attack on the APC Scribe, Mr. Wike has opened a new front to add to the growing number of fronts in his ongoing numerous political battles. For Minister Wike to openly declare a political war with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political party leaders and members while Wike remains in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is an indication that Minister Wike is unraveling with no holds barred. This is especially so given that, in the past 3 years Wike has practically destabilized the PDP, while burning political bridges in his wake. It appears that this latest fight by Nyesom Wike is a fight to finish. Indeed how Wike handles this episode of his multidimensional political battles will define his political future – he will either re-assert himself as a political leader to be reckoned with, or he will experience a bitter political anticlimax that could potentially end his political relevance in the politics of Rivers State and at national level.
As I stated in my previous analyses and opinions on this topic (eg. The 4th of April 2025 episode of this Column), I also partly blame the political crisis in Rivers State on the initial strategic mistakes made by Governor Fubara. However, Governor Fubara’s deft defection to the APC and how he executed the move was strategic and it has changed the game for him so far.
In one of his lessons on strategy and warfare, Sun Tzu also stated that, “No nation survives from prolonged warfare.” And to that extent, for the past 3 years since the resumption of his political godson Siminalayi Fubara, the people of Rivers State have not enjoyed good governance and the full benefits of having a democratically elected Governor. I believe that this protracted and continuing fight between the Minister Wike and, Governor Fubara will continue to deny the people of Rivers State the good governance.
In my view, the impeachment proceeding is a calculated attempt to oust Governor Fubara is a zero-sum game played by Minister Wike’s camp to ensure that the incumbency and political career of governor Fubara are upended. Sadly, initial attempts by President Tinubu to resolve the impasse have not worked out, and I am not sure other entreaties will work.
“Roforofo” fight is not strategy:
It is true that Minister Wike played crucial roles to the success of President Bola Tinubu during the 2023 Presidential elections. But it is also profoundly true that President Tinubu has been adequately compensating Minister Wike and his Allies. The rhetorical question is what will be enough for Nyensom Wike? Your answers are as good as mine.
As it is today, I dare say that Mr. Wike is overplaying his hands. He cannot fight everybody at the same time and expect to win all the time. Therefore, Wike should smell the coffee, face the realities, recalibrate his strategy, and readjust his position.
Furthermore, Minister Wike’s behavior, to the leadership of the APC, with the insults and the threats he is showering on the principal actors in APC, particularly the National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, is an indication of what will happen even if Nyensom Wike decamps into the APC. I reckon that even if Nyensom Wike decamps to APC, he will carry this toxic behavior and style into the APC, and that will certainly be a disaster for the APC. This is because, even though Wike may be tamed by Mr President, he is creating too many distractions for Mr. President and unnecessarily heating the polity. Indeed, Minister Wike’s behavior if unchecked, could be contagious and it may likely permeate into other power blocks within the APC at states and the national level. This will be a very bad influence at this particular time when there is the need for more cohesion to manage the power blocks and power dynamics within the APC as new entrants and support build up to the 2027 elections. Indeed, managing these power blocks is already a big task for Mr President and for the managers of the APC.
Emotional Intelligence and political sagacity are key to sustainable political stay power as demonstrated by President Tinubu in the over 30 years of his political career. Love him or hate him, President Bola Tinubu has a high level of emotional intelligence. That is how, for decades,he has been able to make and keep friends and allies across Nigeria, and even work with his enemies and/or those that hitherto fought against him. I hope that Minister Wike will learn some emotional intelligence and political sagacity from Mr. President.
APC unity and discipline must be sustained:
President Bola Tinubu is also a core party man, who believes in political party discipline and loyalty. Therefore I do not expect President Tinubu to allow Minister Wike to take the “roforofo” fight mentality to the APC or to continually fight and insult the APC leadership at the highest level while claiming he is loyal to Mr. President. As it is today in Nigeria, Mr. President is the APC, and the APC is Mr. President! Therefore attacking the APC leadership is attacking Mr. President.
Consequently, I totally align with the position of the National Chairman and the National Secretary of the APC, because any political party that intends to consolidate power and be sustainable MUST imbibe and entrench political party unity and discipline. Over the years President Tinubu has been able to maintain the discipline that has been responsible for the level of cohesion, unity and successes of his political structure over for many years in Lagos, the entire southwest and across Nigeria, including the build-up to the APC merger in 2014. Minister Wike should also learn from that.
Therefore, commend the unanimous position take by the garrison commanders of APC, i.e, the National Chairman of APC, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, the National Secretary of APC, Senator Ajibola Basiru, have taken positions, at the national level to protect the APC from the emerging toxic narratives and actions by Wike, lest his actions could permeate into the APC and cause cracks and disaffections, and also set a bad leadership example to the members of the APC across Nigeria.
By the way, Minister Wike has been meddling into the politics of other States as he clearly stated himself in his verbal attack of Senator Ajibola Basiru, when he spoke tacitly about Osun politics. There are also news about his unsuccessful attempt to meddle into the politics of Imo State. His activities in the national, regional and state levels in the PDP are in public domain. Yet Minister Wike is threatening that “nobody” can or should meddle in Rivers State politics, as if Rivers State is his private property. Certainly, the National Chairman and/ or National Secretary of the APC or any other political party will always be involved in political party activities in ALL the 36 States in Nigeria and the FCT. Certainly Mr. President has and will continue to lead the entire country and intervene on matters of States including Rivers, if and where necessary. In fact, it is President Tinubu’s interventions that prevented Rivers from descending into anarchy.
It is also noteworthy, that the importance of Rivers State in the permutations and combinations build up to 2027 elections, has changed from the 2023 elections scenario. Because the APC currently has about 30 incumbent governors as members. So the numbers and power dynamics that were critical in 2023, will not be the same in the 2027 elections.
I also don’t expect the APC under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu to allow an APC lead State House or Assembly to impeach the Rivers State Governor who is a brand new entrant of the APC. That is not how the APC operates.
Please let the people of Rivers State Breathe:
I hope that this Wike Versus Fubara power tussle will be ended so that the people of River State, and by extension the people of Nigeria, will have good governance in Rivers State . That should be the real objective of any well meaning politician in Rivers State.
