By Akintayo Balogun
The attempt by the outgoing administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to conduct a last-minute long overdue population census in Nigeria met its Waterloo when the administration was forced to announce an indefinite postponement of the exercise, and a possible conduct of the census by the incoming administration. The census had been fixed for May 3 – 7, 2023, across the 36 states in Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Population census, which had been recommended by the United Nations to hold every 10 years, has not been achievable for successive governments in Nigeria. Nigeria, for most of the time, has depended on population estimations to determine its population which currently stands at 220 million based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.
Knowing the country’s population strength is a fundamental requirement for the running of the government, the determination of economic policies, and the distribution of allocation from the federation account.
Since the inception of Nigeria as an entity, no census result has been entirely acceptable to all the regions of the country. There has always been protest from regions that believe their population was reduced while the population of other regions was inflated.
Although from the sample of the forms that have been in circulation, religion and ethnicity are not issues, there will still be allegations of manipulation of figures in favour of one state, one geo-political zone, one region or the other.
Talking of the 2023 population census and the resultant postponement, there are notable problems. Firstly, the population census was not met with much enthusiasm by many Nigerians, particularly in the wake of the 2023 general elections that were marred with a series of irregularities, protests, malpractices, killings, snatching of ballot boxes and inflation of results and the resultant deflation in the confidence that Nigerians had reposed in the ability of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to execute free and fair elections.
Is it a country that failed to carry out an election involving registered voters of about 93 million persons, both dead and alive, that now seeks to conduct a population census involving nearly 250 million persons? A higher percentage of Nigerians are not even aware that there is a plan by the Federal Government to conduct a population census of its citizens.
Secondly, the kind of funds being pumped into the population census is mind-boggling and extremely humongous. It is budgeted that an estimated sum of $1.8 billion would be required to execute the exercise. This is just to count Nigerians? This is absolutely unacceptable and disappointing for a government that came into office on the mantra of fighting corruption and wasteful expenditure of the government. The funds being committed to counting Nigerians can be used to fix the epileptic power sector that has been a thorn in the flesh of Nigerians and a cankerworm to industrial growth in Nigeria. It could have been used to fix every single road in Nigeria. Instead, it is being used to do a population census whose result will not be acceptable to many Nigerians. Why waste so much resources on a futile mission?
Thirdly, it hurts so much that a good chunk of the budgeted sum has been expended for a census that may not hold in the nearest future unless the incoming government shows an interest in the exercise. The National Population Commission (NPC) chairman, Isa-Kwarra, had disclosed to journalists that the commission had yet to get all the devices needed to carry out the census, noting that some devices will be procured in a few days. He stated further that about 800,000 PADs would be needed to execute the exercise, however, about 500,000 PADs have been acquired and the remaining is expected in a few days. Training has been carried out for ad hoc staff in some quarters, and training fees paid as well according to some of the officials of the NPC at state levels. What if the next government has no interest whatsoever in the counting exercise?
Fourthly, the government has failed to deal with some of the problems that have bedevilled Nigeria. Basic amongst them is the issue of insecurity, kidnapping, killings, and wanton destruction of properties. Who will go to volatile regions to do a head count? It is of note that INEC ad hoc officials were kidnapped during the last 2023 general elections. Nothing was done to secure their immediate release by the government, yet the results of elections from these regions were announced. Who wants to embark on a suicide mission? Would they not meet their Waterloo like the 9 innocent health workers who were killed when they went to administer polio vaccines to children? Who would go to some places in the southeast where some agitators have destroyed their Nigerian identities and are now claiming citizenship and allegiance to another? The challenges ahead of any census to be conducted in Nigeria are enormous and dealing with these challenges should have been the priority before considering a leap at the census.
Fifthly, what happens to the several millions of full-blooded Nigerians based outside the shores of Nigeria? Do they not form part of the exercise? Do they lose their citizenship having been absent in the course of the population census? Are there modalities to have Nigerians outside the shores of Nigeria counted?
Going by the recent development and the indefinite postponement of the population census in Nigeria, the entire clamour and uproar about the census has turned meaningless and a waste of valuable resources that would have been channeled into a more productive course for Nigeria. The funds already pushed into the exercise are already wasted because any government that wishes to embark on the same process would more or less be starting afresh.
There are unconfirmed reports that the National Population Commission plans to meet with the President-elect, Bola Tinubu, even before his inauguration to discuss possible new dates for the population and housing census. This will only depend on the interest of the incoming administration in carrying out the said census. In the face of issues bedevilling the nation, from insecurity to high-level inflation that has befallen the nation in recent years, the least of what the incoming government would be expected to embark upon is a population census.