By Niyi Akinnaso
A proper semiotic study of the recently concluded governorship election in Edo state throws up many interesting electoral signs. Some of the signs were symbolic (language, songs, dance, etc.), while others were iconic (pictures, images, videos, etc.). Yet other signs were hidden from view but had significant impact on the outcome of the election. These signs were used to convey denotative (explicit, direct) and connotative (implicit, deductive) meanings.
At the end of the day, Edo voters reacted more positively to the signs heard, seen, and Godwin Obaseki, incumbent Governor and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, by giving him as much as 307,955 votes against 223,619 votes for his rival, Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress.
A combination of various signs was key to Obaseki’s victory. First, he successfully played up his record of achievement as the incumbent Governor by contrasting it sharply with that of his predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole. He also successfully recruited both community leaders and ordinary folks on the street from the three Senatorial Districts to provide helpful testimonials.
The contrast he drew with Oshiomole benefitted from three background factors. One, Oshiomhole had far too hefty a negative baggage that easily drew Edo voter’s attention. One, he had become the disgraced ex-Chairman of the APC, a position to which he was dragged by the protracted cockfighting between him and Obaseki, the successor he hand-picked and imposed on the party and the voters. Their erstwhile cozy relationship fell apart with Obaseki presenting Oshiomhole as overbearing. And Oshiomhole’s style does appear to be overbearing.
Two, Obaseki capitalized on the godfather theme to buttress the overbearing oga message, by escalating, during the campaign, a theme he has been using against Oshiomhole in the course of their fight. It was a theme Oshiomhole himself had used to kill the leadership position of Chief Gabriel Osawaru Igbinedion and Chief Tony Anenih in Edo politics. Against this background, a video message to Edo people not to vote for Obaseki backfired, leading to the refrain, Edo no be Lagos.
Three, Oshiomhole’s marital recklessness was also invoked. After the death of his first wife, Clara, in 2010, he married Iara, a pretty lady from Cape Verde in 2015 in a Who is Who society wedding. However, the marriage did not last.The lady left him with bitter words in her mouth, according to reports. This generated a comic lyric, sung during Obaseki’s campaign to deride Oshiomhole, thus:
Oshi ooo, Oshi ooo.
Oshi carry money
Marry Oyinbo
Oyinbo run away
Oshi dey cry
Second, Obaseki’s self-marketing strategy was enhanced by a combination of signs used to de-market his rival, Ize-Iyamu. One, while Ize-Iyamu focused unconvincingly on Oshiomhole’s record as Governor, because he served on the administration, Obaseki focused on his own achievements as incumbent Governor, promising to build on them and do more.
Two, Obaseki successfully used the negative language Oshiomhole employed in de-marketing Ize-Iyamu in 2016, while foisting Obaseki on the party. Both candidates were rivals in 2016 but swapped political parties for the 2020 election after Obaseki was disqualified from the APC primary, apparently to pave way for Ize-Iyamu’s candidacy of that party. Obaseki quickly defected to the PDP, which gave him its ticket.
The shenanigans surrounding Obaseki’s disqualification no doubt drew some sympathy votes. Some voters wondered how Oshiomhole could sponsor Obaseki four years ago to be Governor with the same qualifications only to find him unqualified in 2020. The saga even drew the prestigious University of Ibadan to certify Obaseki’s degree from the institution.
Thus, while Ize-Iyamu appeared stuck on Obaseki’s putative disqualification, the latter wisely sidetracked the qualification issue by focusing his campaign ads on the positive testimonials Oshiomhole gave him in 2016, while battering Ize-Iyamu during the same 2016 campaign. The contrast was too sharp for voters to ignore, and it worked in Obaseki’s favour.
The implication for Oshiomhole’s image was strikingly obvious. The adverts portrayed him as speaking from both sides of the mouth, one praising A, while condemning B, and the switching four years later to condemning A, while praising B.
As a result, Obaseki successfully turned the election into a plebiscite on the relevance of Oshiomhole in Edo politics, having been earlier relegated in national politics by his removal by a Court of Law as the Chairman of the APC.
Obaseki’s contribution to Oshiomhole’s political demise is noteworthy. To start with, he refused to swear in the legislators reportedly sponsored by Oshiomhole. Second, he got the party executive in Oshiomole’s ward to expel him from the party. The expulsion was eventually dragged up to the Appeals Court, which ruled that appropriate procedures were followed and, therefore, the expulsion was upheld. The story threw the National Executive of the APC into turmoil until President Muhammadu Buhari stepped in to get a Caretaker Committee set up.
There were also hidden signs involving intrigues and permutations for the 2023 presidential election. There are viral stories online naming some key APC governors, who reportedly worked behind the scenes for Obaseki’s victory, with the hope that he would later cross over to the APC to assist in their presidential ambition.
Several lessons stand out about Obaseki’s victory and the APC’s loss of Edo to the PDP, thus constituting the South-south into a solid PDP bloc. APC leaders should have seen this coming. They should have called Oshiomhole to order early enough. They should have stepped in to stop his slow but gradual roasting by Obaseki. The party has a chance now to set the path straight for 2023 by preventing situations that would make party members engage in anti-party activities and by atoning member’ grievances and settling various intra-party disputes.
True, the election was adjudged to be free and fair and Obaseki’s victory resounding enough to warrant the concession of the rank and file of the APC, including the party’s candidate. Nevertheless, the political party remains the weakest link in Nigeria’s democratic growth. The shenanigans surrounding APC primaries and the ease with which members switch parties belie the standard of party politics in the country. Clearly, the political party remains only a platform for participating in elections. There is no party loyalty, because there is no ideology or set of values to which party members are philosophically or emotionally tied.
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