Following Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party clear victory on December 12, watchers of British politics are now looking at how the government will achieve Brexit and heal the deep fractures within British politics.
The House of Commons will be opened today. The Parliament will have to contend with Prime Minister Boris Johnson top priority: to get Brexit done. The 2019 general election last Thursday followed the predicaments faced by the Conservative Party, having failed to obtain a majority in the 2017 general election. The party had faced a prolonged parliamentary deadlock over Brexit while it governed in minority with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
Johnson and the headache of Brexit
Johnson was elected as the Conservatives’ leader in July 2019. He was then appointed as Prime Minister, after Theresa May’s resignation. Johnson could not get Parliament to approve a revised withdrawal agreement by the end of October and chose to call for a snap election. The House of Commons supported the Early Parliamentary General Election Act 2019 by 438-20, setting the election date for 12 December.
Johnson needed to obtain an overall majority in the election in order to accomplish his main goal of taking the United Kingdom out of the European Union by the end of January 2020. Opinion polls up to polling day showed a firm lead for the Conservatives against Labour throughout the campaign.
Conservatives’ win and Labour’s loss
The election resulted in a Conservative win with a landslide majority of 80 seats (their largest majority since 1987), with the party making a net gain of 48 seats and winning 43.6% of the vote (the highest percentage by any party since 1979). The Labour Party performed poorly, making a net loss of 60 seats while winning 32.1% of the vote. The Scottish National Party (SNP) made a net gain of 13 seats and won 3.9% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats improved their vote share to 11.6% in the election but made a net loss of one seat. The election also saw both the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Alliance Party of Northern Ireland re-gain representation in the Commons.
The result of the election saw the Conservatives strengthening their position on Brexit, with Johnson committing himself to ensure the UK’s departure from the European Union by 31 January 2020. However, 74 MPs who held seats at the end of the Parliament did not stand for re-election.
The most diverse parliament
In terms of gender, race and sexuality, the group of MPs elected last Thursday is the most diverse so far, although women still lag way behind men in terms of equal representation in the House of Commons. The proportion of MPs from ethnic minorities, although growing, is also lower than that of the UK’s population as a whole. There are 140 first-time MPs in the 2019 intake and 15 who are returning to the benches, having sat previously, although not in the last Parliament. Most of these are new Conservatives, but only the Greens and Plaid Cymru are returning without any new MPs.
More women than ever before
A total of 220 female MPs were elected last Thursday, 12 more than the previous record of 208 in the 2017 general election. For the first time, both the Liberal Democrats and Labour have more women MPs than men. Of Labour’s 202 MPs (excluding Speaker Lindsay Hoyle), 104 are women – and of the Liberal Democrats’ 11 MPs, seven are women.
A record number of ethnic minority MPs
One in ten of the 650 MPs elected this year are non-white. Ten years ago, just one in 40 MPs was non-white, according to research by the independent think tank British Future. There are 13 more non-white MPs than in the last Parliament, but all represent English seats. There are no black, Asian and minority ethnic MPs in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
Despite losing MPs overall, Labour increased their representation of black and minority ethnic MPs. Half of the 26 new Labour MPs are from ethnic minority backgrounds. That figure includes Sarah Owen, Labour’s first British Chinese MP, and Kim Johnson, the first black MP in Liverpool. One in five Labour MPs is now black or minority ethnic, compared with 6% of Conservatives. The non-white population across the UK as a whole was 14%, according to the 2011 census.
Labour leadership takes blame over the result
Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell have, however, apologised over Labour’s “catastrophic” defeat in the election, which saw them lose 59 seats. Corbyn said he was “sorry that we came up short”, while Mr McDonnell told the BBC he “owns this disaster”. The leader and shadow chancellor said they would step down in the new year. The race for their replacements has already begun, with Wigan MP Lisa Nandy saying for the first time she was “seriously thinking about” running. Labour Party officials have suggested that Corbyn’s successor will be in place by the end of March.
New and old faces
Former Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow, famous worldwide for his red-faced shouting of “Order!” over the noise of rowdy lawmakers, stepped down at the end of the last parliamentary session. All eyes will be on his replacement, former Labour MP Lindsay Hoyle, to see if he can live up to his predecessor’s reputation. The Speaker is in charge of running debates in the House of Commons.
A disunited kingdom
Following Johnson’s clear victory on December 12, sights are now set on how Johnson will achieve Brexit and how his government will attempt to heal the deep fractures within British politics.
The Scottish National Party, which want Scotland to secede from the UK, saw a landslide last week, taking 48 out of 59 Scottish seats, while Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru returned four MPs. Additionally, seven Northern Irish nationalist MPs from the Sinn Fein party will refuse to take their seats as usual, in protest of being part of the UK.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has also argued that the Scotland “cannot be imprisoned in the union against its will” by the UK government. She said the SNP’s success in the general election gives her the mandate to hold a new referendum on independence.
However, UK ministers are opposed to such a move with Michael Gove saying the vote in 2014 should be “respected”. Ms Sturgeon told the BBC that if the UK was to continue as a union, “it can only be by consent”. She told The Andrew Marr Show that the UK government would be “completely wrong” to think saying no to a referendum would be the end of the matter, adding: “It’s a fundamental point of democracy – you can’t hold Scotland in the union against its will.” The SNP won a landslide of Scottish seats in the snap general election, making gains from the Conservatives and Labour and unseating Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson.
There is a lot more to come regarding the terms and details of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, but the underlying political dynamic has changed irreversibly.
Attitudes to Brexit will play a major role in determining the future of the opposition Labour Party.
Relations between the UK government in London and Scotland’s devolved government in Edinburgh are likely to lead to a constitutional crisis over whether Scotland should have a fresh referendum on independence. The application of Brexit to Northern Ireland will require some very creative thinking and some very delicate treatment to ensure there is no disruption to the twenty-year-old peace process.
In England and Wales, third parties and rebel groups within the two major parties had a significant impact on the 2019 election, but they are now left with little or no influence.
The prime minister now has almost unfettered power, with little or no restraints from either the formal opposition parties or from within his own party. But he can be expected to come under heavy pressure from the European Union and the Irish government to do everything possible to ensure the maintenance of agreement and the preservation of an almost invisible border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic that is such a potent symbol of that agreement.
EU parliament warns to Johnson
European parliament chief Guy Verhofstadt yesterday threatened to withhold consent for Johnson’s Brexit deal unless problems with EU citizens’ rights are resolved. Even after succeeding in tackling the home-front, Johnson will have to contend with the EU and its Parliament. All eyes are on the Prime Minister as the Parliament opens today.
Leave a Reply