Arguably, for the first time in Nigeria’s political history, the nation will on May 29, barely three weeks away, have someone who earnestly desired to be a democratically elected president assume power. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the president-elect, confessed that he has coveted presidential power all his (political) life. So, most Nigerians anxiously await to see what he will do with the enormous presidential powers, when he assumes the authority and power of the president and commander-in-chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Historically, it is claimed that the First Republic prime minister, Alhaji Tafewa Balewa, was conscripted by his political leader, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Sardauna of Sokoto, to head the federal government in Lagos, while he secures the redoubt of Northern Nigeria. At the return of democracy in 1979, the winner, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, was conscripted from his senatorial ambition to the presidency. Again in 1999, the winner, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, was dragged from prison to the presidency. He in turn foisted the ailing ex-president Umaru Yar’Adua, when he finished his second term in 2007.
In similar tradition, ex-president Goodluck Jonathan was catapulted by forces beyond his control from deputy governor to the presidency in a miraculous manner. The outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari, initially coveted presidential power, but gave up after several failures, only to be propelled to power by forces around him. While Obasanjo and Buhari may have willingly sought their second terms, there is little doubt that their first terms in office showed their unpreparedness. So, what difference would Tinubu’s preparedness make?
While Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope 2023 – Action Plan for a Better Nigeria,” which is the presidential campaign manifesto, says a lot about the plans and programmes of his incoming administration, Nigerians are intently listening to and clutching at every statement the president-elect makes, to know the direction of his incoming administration. Among the burning issues is the insecurity across the country, which blossomed under the Buhari presidency. What will Tinubu do differently from the current era to stem the killings, banditry and kidnappings that overwhelmed many parts of the country under Buhari?
The APC’s manifesto talks about decentralising the police by amending the constitution to create state and community policing to complement the federal police. Obviously, amending the constitution is a long-term project, and even with the best of goodwill, may take years to achieve. So, Nigerians would be interested to know what the Tinubu presidency would do immediately to deal with the marauding kidnappers that have made roads in the countryside an unfriendly route to ply.
Closely connected is the issue of herders-farmers clash, which has become intractable across the country, with many believing that the Buhari regime has been an accomplice in favour of the Fulani herders. No doubt, majority of Nigerians believe that because President Buhari is a Fulani, he has overlooked the atrocities his kith and kin are committing in their determination to have unlawful access to pasture around the river banks of Benue and Niger, and further down south, especially during dry season.
So, what will Tinubu do differently, without incurring the countervailing claim of oppressing the Fulani, whose political elites helped put him in power? Again, the permanent solution of ranching and outlawing open grazing, which the Buhari government failed to push through, in eight years, would require time to implement. So, what will Tinubu’s government do in the interim to contain the deadly Fulani militants who have rendered many villages desolate, and caused the displacement of many Nigerians, now exposed in Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camps, more so as the rainy season is fast approaching?
Another great challenge facing the incoming administration is fuel subsidy palaver. Though the Buhari government achieved giant strides in legacy infrastructure projects, it came at prohibitive cost to the nation’s economy. While Nigeria’s debt portfolio was tamed by the Obasanjo regime with the debt repayment it achieved under the direction of Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as finance minister, the Buhari government has effectively returned the country to a new era of debt peonage, as the country is owing over N77 trillion, across portfolios by 1st quarter of 2023.
With such a debt portfolio, the nation is in economic quagmire with an unmaintainable fuel subsidy regime, now estimated at over N3.36 trillion, for one half of 2023. The Buhari administration, which projected itself as a fearless reformer and corruption-free, came short in implementing the hard decision of removing fuel subsidy, and cleaning up the corruption-laden petroleum sector. Tinubu will, on May 29, inherit the economic mess that the mismanaged fuel subsidy regime represents. So, would Tinubu summon the courage to remove the fuel subsidy and contend with the backlash of strikes and public angst that would follow?
It would be interesting to see how Tinubu would deal with the corruption that is associated with the departing Buhari administration Many commentators believe that members of the administration are engaging in last-minute looting. Questions are being asked why many big projects like population census, new national airline, over N23 trillion ‘Ways and Means’ expenditure and similar heavy financial outflows are all happening in the last days of the Buhari regime. For skeptics, what is going on is the last bazaar of the Buhari regime.
So, would Tinubu set off a rash of probes to recover the loot, or would he let bygones be bygones? Again, how would he deal with the likely economic implication of starting off with an empty treasury and yet meet up with satisfying the great expectations of economic and social miracle from the disconsolate Nigerian populace? Feelers from the incoming administration indicate that Tinubu would be taking very hard decisions to contend with the economic mess the Buhari administration is leaving behind, and that would include rationalisation of the federal government agencies and workforce.
One group that should be hopeful is the judiciary, considering the promise made by Tinubu during the recent commissioning of the Magistrates’ Courts in Rivers State. As a practising lawyer, this writer can authoritatively confirm that Tinubu and his successors successfully transformed the Lagos State judicially from decrepit court houses to comfortable court rooms. The judges, who used to drive around in nondescript cars, had since transformed to owners of brand-new SUVs, who live in their own houses in choice parts of town.
Tinubu has promised: “We must fight corruption and we definitely must look at the other side of the coin. If you don’t want your judges to be corrupt, you have got to pay attention to their welfare.” He went on: “You don’t expect your judges to live in squalor, to operate in squalor, to dispense justice in squalor.” This writer urges Tinubu to gear up to deliver the majority of Nigerians from squalor.