ON paper, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has 13 governors. The figure shows how bad the party has fallen from the height it hitherto occupied on the governorship ladder. In its glorious days, all you needed to do was to reverse the figure 13 and you will get the number of governors in PDP’s kitty.
We are talking of 15 years ago when the party held sway in the country, with 31 of the 36 state governors, leaving the remaining five for the other parties to share. Faced with a shrinking number of governors, an affliction brought upon itself by its internal wranglings, the party is heading to the 2023 elections sharply divided.
Its Chairman, Dr Iyorchia Ayu, and presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, are fighting a battle of their lives for the support of the party’s governors – five of whom have since parted ways with them. It can be safely said that it now has only eight governors left and of this figure, one may be on his way to team up with the Group of Five, otherwise known as G5 led by Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike.
Wike is the party’s nemesis and by extension that of its presidential candidate. He has made up his mind to work against Atiku against whom he contested for the ticket in May. Wike fought a good fight and if things had gone as he planned, he would have upset the apple cart. But the owners of PDP had other plans which they did not reveal to him as a leader of the party.
Until then, he did not know that the owners of the party are different from the leaders. Wike thought that because he had often bailed the party out of financial mess in the past, he was in the inner caucus of PDP where the elders rule the roost.
The scale fell off his eyes at the convention, where at the 11th hour, his friend, associate and ally, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto, dumped him for Atiku in line with a northern agenda, which is against the party’s principle on zoning. The party had always ensured balancing in its leadership positions.
Since its inception 24 years ago, its chairman and candidate had never come from the same geopolitical zone. If the chairman comes from the north, the candidate is picked from the south and vice versa. But at its May convention, it broke with this tradition. What is more, Ayu, who had promised to resign if a northerner emerged candidate, reneged on his promise. This marked the beginning of the rift between him, Atiku and Wike.
Ironically, Wike had worked for the emergence of Ayu as chairman, with Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom standing as his guarantor in the governors’ calculation to smoothen the path for a southern candidate. Their plan misfired. With Wike’s presidential ambition aborted at the convention, he, Ortom, Governors Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) took to the trenches to fight what they perceived as injustice.
Before the primary, the PDP governors from the south had made a case for a Southern president. But they did not get the buy-in of all their northern counterparts, who feel that power should remain in their region. With other southern governors like Ifeanyi Okowa (Delta), Emmanuel Udom (Akwa Ibom), backing out of the deal, the north’s hand was strengthened in its quest to hold on to power.
Okowa was compensated with the running mate slot and Udom, director-general of the presidential campaign council (PCC). In all of this, the G5 was a mere onlooker. It watched as events unfolded. Even in their states, the governors claimed that they were not consulted before people were conscripted into the PCC. According to them, the message being sent across was that they were irrelevant in their own states.
To show that they are relevant, they have vowed not to work for Atiku. Their main condition is that Ayu must go. But it has got to a stage that even if Ayu quits today, the G5 may still not support Atiku. Its tribe may increase soon, with Bauchi State Governor Bala Muhammed being wooed by the group. The G5 did not go out of its way to get Muhammed. He may be brought in through fortuitous circumstance.
Muhammed, who also contested for the presidential ticket, is embittered that Atiku is sidelining him. Atiku, he claimed, did not visit him after the primary to seek his support for the main election. Besides, the governor alleged that Atiku is against his second term bid. It is a dicey situation for Atiku and PDP. The party knows the implication of Muhammed’s statement. The governor is not happy with Atiku and may be forced to go the G5 way. Although, he has visited Atiku, that is no guarantee that he is happy with the candidate.
Politicians have a way of wining, dining and dancing together, as if all is well, only to stage a coup against themselves the next hour. Ask the late Chuba Okadigbo or Audu Ogbeh and they will tell you what became of them shortly after their feast with former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Between now and February 25, 2023, when the presidential election holds, anything can happen. Muhammed is now a beautiful bride being wooed by G5 and Atiku. Will he join his brother-governors or accept Atiku’s plea not to jump ship?