The Nation Newspaper

Author: The Nation

  • Foreign inflows propel NGX turnover to N11.3tr

    Foreign inflows propel NGX turnover to N11.3tr

    • Result doubles 2024 figures
    • Experts attribute success to policy reforms

    Nigerian Exchange (NGX) total turnover doubled to all-time high of N11.23 trillion last year as foreign investors increased stakes on equities, it was learnt yesterday.

    Trading data obtained by The Nation yesterday indicated that total value of transactions at the Exchange rose by 101 per cent from N5.587 trillion in 2024 to N11.23 trillion in 2025, the highest in the history of the market.

    The transactions had stood at N3.578 trillion, N2.324 trillion, N1.899 trillion and N2.168 trillion in 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 respectively.

    The record market performance was driven by upsurge in activities by foreign portfolio investors, whose participation in the Nigerian market had risen to the highest level in the past four years.

    The market also recorded another breakthrough as the country made net positive flow in the two-way trading by foreign investors. Compared with the previous trend where outflows were more than inflows, inflows surpassed outflows in 2025, showing that foreign investors were becoming more comfortable with retaining their funds in Nigeria.

    The turnover further illustrated the positive outlook for the Nigerian market, after Nigerian equities closed 2025 as one of the world’s five best-performing stock markets. The All Share Index (ASI) of the NGX- which doubles as Nigeria’s sovereign equities index, closed 2025 with a full-year return of 51.19 per cent, equivalent to net capital gain of N32.13 trillion.

    Group Managing Director, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) Plc, Temi Popoola, attributed the sustained rally at the stock market to investors’ confidence in the country’s macroeconomic outlook.

    He said: “The Nigerian capital market in 2025 demonstrated resilience despite domestic and global economic headwinds.

    Read Also: NGX’s non-interest board to channel funds to productive sector

    “This performance underscores the importance of policy consistency, purposeful reforms, and strategic collaboration in strengthening investor confidence and sustaining market growth.

    “During the year, efforts to advance economic reforms and improve market structures helped support a stable environment for capital formation, while our continued investment in technology played a critical role in expanding access, enhancing transparency, and improving operational efficiency across the market.”

    He commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for providing the policy clarity and reform momentum that have bolstered investor confidence.

    According to him, the capital market has responded positively to improved macroeconomic coordination and clear reform direction, creating an enabling environment for sustainable investment.

    Popoola assured that the NGX Group would continue to collaborate with regulators and stakeholders to attract quality listings, deepen liquidity, and expand retail participation, reinforcing the market’s position as a catalyst for sustainable economic growth.

     Chairman, Association of Securities Dealing Houses of Nigeria (ASHON), Mr. Sehinde Adenagbe, said the market performance has strong correlation with the economic reforms of the current government.

    He said: “There is no gain saying that since President Tinubu took office in May 2023, Nigeria’s stock market has experienced strong growth and renewed investor interest.

    “The NGX All-Share Index more than doubled, rising by around 136 per cent between 2023 and 2025, with market capitalisation expanding sharply and local and foreign participation strengthening”.

    He added that further digitisation of the economy and the capital market has smoothen the onboarding of the youthful demography of the country, especially through the fintech gateway created by the NGX Group, which has tremendously increased inclusiveness in the market.

     According to him, the market performance reflected improved macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and investor appetite.

    Adenagbe said: “We believe that these strong performances signal enhanced market confidence, partly driven by broader economic measures under the administration.”

    He highlighted the enactment of the Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025 signed into law by President Tinubu, removal of Nigeria from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)’s “grey list” and the reforms in the foreign exchange (forex) market as major impetus for the market.

    According to him, the transparency and stability in the forex market have helped to reduce distortions, improving the predictability of pricing for foreign investors and businesses.

    “Stable forex conditions have been widely cited as a contributor to increased foreign capital flows into equities and other financial instruments,” Adenagbe said.

     He, however, called for more supportive policies that encourage new listings, including moribund state-owned-enterprises that can be turned around as well as incentives for long-term institutional investment.

    Adenagbe said: “We also need more structural reforms, coordinated implementation, market infrastructure improvements and inclusive growth measures to sustain momentum and position Nigeria as a competitive driver of national economic growth and development.

    “The issue surrounding the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) should be revisited to give the market clarity. More intentional approaches are needed to stamp out insecurity and acts of terrorism from the country as investors want to put their resources in secured environment.”

    Managing Director, GTI Capital, Mr. Kehinde Hassan, said investors appeared confident about the outlook for the Nigerian economy.

    He noted that the stock market is the closest reflection of a country’s global economic rating as investors are sensitive to risks.

  • Why I’m at peace despite impeachment notice, by Fubara

    Why I’m at peace despite impeachment notice, by Fubara

    • Rivers Assembly alleges plot to stop proceedings

    “I am unperturbed by the impeachment proceedings initiated by the House of Assembly,” Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara declared yesterday.

    He spoke during the  Inter-Denominational Church Service in commemoration of 2026 Armed Forces Celebration and Remembrance Day at St Cyprain’s Anglican Church, Port Harcourt.

    He also said that he would not comment on the resurgence of political crisis.

    Fubara and his deputy, Prof. Ngozi Odu, have been served with impeachment notice by the Assembly over alleged gross misconduct.

    Although the governor insisted that he would not complain about the logjam, the House of Assembly raised the alarm that his agents have began moves to truncate the procedures through a court order.

    He said the order is targetted at preventing lawmakers from hold plenary.

    A statement by the Chairman, House Committee on Information, Petitions and Complaints, Dr Enemi Alabo George, said the plot was to obtain the exparte order from the state High Court outside Port Harcourt, the state capital, against the process.

    Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike, chided critics who have called for his removal by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and reaffirmed his leadership of the state.

    ‘Why I am not disturbed’

    Fubara urged Rivers people to remain calm, assuring that peace will be restored “by God’s grace”.

    He alluded to his New Year remarks that “dogs bark when they don’t understand,” insisting that many people in the state lacked comprehension.

    Fubari said: “At the new year banquet, I said something, that dogs bark when they don’t understand. A lot of you don’t understand. The reason why I don’t shout and I don’t complain is that I know what I have. I know that I have what is Supreme and that is God.

    “So, I want everyone to be relaxed. What is important is peace for this our dear state and we will get it by the grace of God.”

    Odu, who was also asked to address the congregation by the governor, hailed the priest, Rev. Blessing Enyindah, for his message that “we are remembered by what we have done.”

    She said: “It is a thing that we should go back and reflect on in our heart, and it should guide our attitudes, how we relate to people bearing in mind that there will be a day of reckoning. A day when people will reflect on what you have done, whether it be good or bad. But let us by God’s grace be remembered for good.

    “Let’s leave this Cathedral and let it resonate in our hearts that we should think of the good we should be remembered. It doesn’t matter whatever else, but let’s be remembered for good. What we do that we look at life more positively and do things more positively and more impactful”.

    Read Also: Rivers lawmakers adamant as stakeholders move to stop Fubara’s impeachment

    Plot to stop removal thickens

    House of Assembly Spokesman George alleged plots by some persons linked to the executive arm to get a court order stopping the lawmakers from performing its functions.

    He said the move was dead on arrival because it would amount to an attempt to subvert the 1999 Constitution (as amended).

    George said the move was illegal, insisting that it ran foul of Section 272 (3) and 188 (10) of the constitution as well as some judicial decisions of the Court of Appeal.

    He said instead of running from pillar to post, the governor and his deputy should respond to the allegations of gross misconduct.

    Wike knock critics over call for sack

    Wike took an exception to the calls for his sack, describing those behind it ‘jokers’.

    He said it is not within their power to advise Tinubu on what to do on his appointment as minister.

    The minister also dismissed criticisms trailing his political choices, insisting that politics is driven by interests, power and the will of the people, and not sentiment or emotions.

    Wike, who spoke during his “thank you” tour of his home local government  – Obio/Akpor –  said that his decision to venture into politics was deliberate and not accidental.

    The minister explained that he chose to be a politician and not a pastor, a trader, a public commentator or journalist, urging them to allow him play his politics.

    He said: “I did not say I wanted to be a journalist. I did not say I wanted to shape public opinion through writing. I said clearly that I wanted to be a politician and that is what I am.

    “For those who are crying left, right,and centre, it’s your business. You can not be a politician and the same time a trader, and the same time a pastor. No, you must choose what you want to do”.

    Wike said his visit to Obio/Akpor was borne out of gratitude, noting that acknowledging support is a fundamental principle of leadership.

    The Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Kingsley Chinda, said Obio/Akpor has over 684,000 votes of the 3.5 million registered voters in Rivers State.

    Chinda, who represents the LGA in the Green Chamber, said that with the voting strength, nobody would challenge the power of the LGA in the state.

    Turning to Wike, he said: “Just go home. Tell us what you want us to do and we will do it.”

    The chairman of the council, Dr Gift Worlu, described Wike as a “gift” to the local government, the state and the country, due to his outstanding performance in public service at the local, state and national levels.

    The Speaker of the House of Assembly, Martin Amaewhule, reassured the minister of the full support of people in the local government area.

    He said the lawmakers would continue to pray for him and support his call for the President’s re-election.

  • Hospital opens probes into death of Chimamanda Adichie’s son

    Hospital opens probes into death of Chimamanda Adichie’s son

    A detailed probe into the death of Chimamanda Adichie son’s death at Euracare Hospital has been lauched by the facility, its management confirmed at the weekend.

    The hospital, which expressed its deepest sympathies to Adichie and her family, said the investigation was in consistence with its clinical governance standard and best practices.

    It described the passing of the boy – Nkanu – as profound and unimaginable

    In a statement issued by the hospital’s management, Euracare acknowledged the deep distress surrounding the incident and extended its heartfelt condolences to the parents and entire family, noting that the loss of a child is beyond words.

    The hospital stated that it has become necessary to clarify, for the record, certain inaccuracies on what transpired.

    Read Also: Rivers lawmakers adamant as stakeholders move to stop Fubara’s impeachment

    The statement reads: “The patient, who was critically ill, was referred to the hospital for specific diagnostic procedures after receiving treatment for a period of time at two pediatric centres. Upon arrival, Euracare’s medical team immediately provided care in line with established clinical protocols and internationally accepted medical standards, including the administration of sedation where clinically indicated”.

    The hospital further explained that during the course of care, it worked collaboratively with external medical teams as recommended by the family and ensured that all necessary clinical support was provided. Despite these concerted efforts, the patient sadly passed away less than 24 hours after presenting at the facility.

    Euracare disclosed that it has commenced a detailed investigation consistent with its clinical governance standards and best practices and remains committed to engaging transparently and responsibly with all relevant clinical and regulatory processes.

  • Tinubu in Abu Dhabi for sustainability summit

    Tinubu in Abu Dhabi for sustainability summit

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has arrived in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to participate in the 2026 edition of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW 2026), a global forum dedicated to advancing sustainable development.

    The President arrived the UAE capital last night  at about 11:30pm local time and was received on arrival by the Minister of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Shakhboot Nahyan Al Nahyan.

    President Tinubu is attending the summit at the invitation of Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates.

    Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week is a weeklong global platform that convenes leaders from government, business and civil society to advance conversations and actions on sustainable development.

    Read Also: Rivers: Wike knocks critics over call for his sack by Tinubu

    The summit provides a forum for mobilising ideas, partnerships and investments aimed at shaping the next phase of global sustainability efforts.

    This edition will be held under the theme, “The Nexus of Next: All Systems Go,” with a focus on linking ambition to practical action across innovation, finance and people.

    It will also showcase pathways for countries and institutions to move forward with confidence in a rapidly evolving global environment.

    President Tinubu’s participation is expected to place Nigeria’s perspectives on sustainability, energy transition and inclusive development on the global stage, while also creating opportunities for engagement with international leaders and potential partners.

    The President who flew from his holiday in Europe, is expected back in the country on completion of summit.

  • Consolidation or consideration

    Consolidation or consideration

    Sustained disinflation, stable foreign exchange (forex), improving energy situation, growing reserves, bullish financial markets and new impetus to revenue in new tax laws and ports’ initiatives have set up Nigerian economy for momentous period in 2026. But it’s also a pre-election year, or more appropriately, the election year. The implementation of the new Nigerian Tax Acts, which started on January 01, is already symptomatic of the policy environment for the year. Politicking will moderate policy decisions- accentuating, decelerating, compounding and confusing, leaving the public the additional burden of shifting grains from the shafts.

    Despite the downside risks, most analyses see growth and stability. The economy is expected to continue on growth path, with almost a consensus estimate of more than four per cent. Inflation will remain curtailed, fluctuating downward to nearly single digit. That should stimulate monetary easing, with positive multipliers on corporate earnings and returns. The naira is projected to remain stable, with a lean towards considerable appreciation.

    Read Also: Senate halts consideration of Cocoa Management Board Bill after Tinubu’s request

    Downside risks exist. The fiscal template depends on government meeting its revenue targets. Recent conflicts have heightened global oil risks, leaving less chances for domestic foibles. The N58.47 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill rests largely on expectations of higher revenue. The 2026 Appropriation Bill projected total revenue of N34.33 trillion, total expenditure of N58.18 trillion, including N15.52 trillion for debt servicing, recurrent non‑debt expenditure of N15.25 trillion, capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion and budget deficit of N23.85 trillion, representing 4.28 per cent of GDP.

    The budget was premised on crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day; and exchange rate of N1, 400 per dollar. Key sectoral allocations included defence and security, N5.41 trillion; infrastructure, N3.56 trillion; education, N3.52 trillion and health, which got N2.48 trillion. The fiscal space for borrowings is already tight, and the government’s fiscal balance depends on disciplined implementation of headlining policy initiatives in ports’ revenue, taxes and remittances. Security remains the big elephant in the room, and everything else may depend on government’s handling of security issues.

    In 2026, it’s either a consolidation of the macroeconomic reforms or a consideration for political leverage.

  • Seventh year of the bulls

    Seventh year of the bulls

    The Nigerian capital market glided through 2025 in bright points, headlining positive reviews domestically and internationally. Is 2026 the seventh year of the bulls? In a pre-election year that will expectedly be nuanced with more pro-politics decisions and controversies, will the market stay the course and deliver higher performance? In the first full year for the implementation of new capital market and taxation laws, Deputy Group Business Editor, Taofik Salako, examines the underlying dynamics that will drive the bulls and the bears in new fiscal year

    Nigerian capital market rose to new highpoints in 2025. Driven by stronger inflows of foreign capital and steady domestic demand, the capital market strode through the odds to deliver record performance. Average equities’ return was 51.19 per cent, one of the world’s five best-performing stock markets. New capital raisings stood at about N7 trillion, with the market becoming a crucial support for government and corporate growth plans. Record turnover at the secondary market and a steadily active primary market combined to shape a market that has increasingly become relevant. The All Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) – which doubles as Nigeria’s sovereign equities index, closed 2025 with a full-year return of 51.19 per cent, equivalent to net capital gain of N32.13 trillion.  The performance at the Nigerian market more than doubled returns across several advanced and emerging markets, including the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France and China where average indexed returns were below 25 per cent. Instructively, the MSCI All Country World Index- a global index that tracks large-cap stocks across developed and emerging markets, closed the year with average return of about 20 per cent. Both the debt and equities markets have shown stronger resilience, with more companies relying on short-term capital market-based debts to bridge gap created by high interest rates and less accessible bank loans. Commercial paper issuances, for instance, clocked almost N1 trillion in 2025, with the largest chunk from unquoted, private businesses.

    The year is starting on a strong momentum for the market. Despite the traditional year-end and early-year spending, the bulls appear unrelenting. Continuing rally pushed the Nigerian equities valuation to a milestone of N100 trillion, in a starter hailed by several analysts as indicative of the general outlook for the year. But it is an early call.

    Year 2026 is intriguingly loaded; a pre-election year, it is the first full fiscal year for the implementation of the new Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025 and the new Nigerian Tax Acts. Newness comes with a risk, of uncertainty, of flips and flops. Where regulatory understanding differs with operators’ perception, such tautness often comes with visible market reaction. Especially in a market increasingly susceptible to foreign portfolios’ adjustments. Nigeria’s thrilling foreign capital destination is a gain in a stable macroeconomic environment, but it’s also a major risk in case of policy changes and new implementation.

    This year also comes with the cumulation of major policies in the financial services industry, especially the recapitalisation programmes in the banking and insurance sectors. The full extent of the recapitalisation exercises will dominate the first half of the market- in public and private equity raising, mergers and acquisitions, takeovers and splits.

    While most analyses expected less casualties in the banking sector’s recapitalisation compared to the previous exercises, there is still the fear of dilutions, distress sales and complete loss; in the event of regulatory takeover or forced liquidation. These are the themes that will dominate the market in the months ahead. Still substantially undervalued relative to peers, the market obviously is running ahead of the economy in resilient forward-pricing. Such outlook tends to defy minor flops and fluctuations in fiscal and monetary environment. But a major misstep, in a pre-election year, will have more profound effect on the market.

    Seventh year of the bulls

    Most analysts expected the Nigerian market to continue its bullish run. Most projections saw average equities’ return remaining within positive double digit, stretching Nigerian market’s bullish run to its seventh consecutive year. Average equities’ return is expected at between 30 and 50 per cent. Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa stated that sharper disinflation, stronger foreign exchange (forex) inflows and stable macroeconomic environment should sustain the rally.

    “In our base case scenario, we project a 40.9 per cent gain in the NGX-ASI, supported by sustained price and naira stability, gradual monetary policy easing, improved corporate earnings, elevated pre-election liquidity, and aggressive capital mobilisation by insurance companies and pension funds adminsitrators (PFAs), with additional upside from anticipated listings such as Dangote Petrochemicals,” Afrinvest stated. It however cautioned that renewed inflationary pressures, forex volatility, weak foreign participation, and delays in expected listings could undermine the market.

    Cordros Capital Group, which predicts average return of 34.9 per cent for the ASI in 2026, stated that a firmer macro backdrop, earnings growth and attractive valuations should continue to underpin equity performance in the months ahead.

    “For equities, while risks remain present, the balance of probabilities remains favourable. All told, 2026 is positioned to extend the market’s recovery cycle as a progressively easing policy environment, firmer macro stability and deepening investor confidence reinforce both earnings resilience and valuation expansion across key sectors,” Cordros Capital stated.

    GTI Capital Group added that with the potential listings of major new issuers expected in 2026, including the 10 per cent landmark offer of the Dangote Refinery, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), alongside the Dangote Fertilizer Plant and fintech heavyweight, Flutterwave, Nigeria’s equity market could see a meaningful expansion in depth, liquidity, volatility, and sectoral diversification.

    Nigerian market had broken its previous regressive pre-election pattern in previous circle, and most analysts expected 2026 to sustain the new trend. A double-digit return in 2026 will mark the seventh consecutive bullish run for the Nigerian market. The ASI had made the top global chart in 2024 with average return of 37.65 per cent, equivalent to net capital gain of N15.4 trillion.  The ASI had closed 2023 as one of the three best-performing markets globally. Average return for Nigerian equities in 2023 stood at 45.90 per cent, equivalent to net capital gains of N12.81 trillion.

    The market had broken its well-known previous cycle of decline in pre-election year to record its third consecutive positive performance in 2022, with full-year average return of 19.98 per cent, equivalent to net capital gain of N4.455 trillion. It had closed 2021 with average return of 6.07 per cent, equivalent to net capital gains of N1.278 trillion. In the throes of the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it had recorded average return of 50.03 per cent, representing net capital gains of N6.483 trillion. ASI closed 2023 at 74,773.77 points as against its opening index of 51,251.06 points for the year. It had opened 2022 at 42,716.44 points. Aggregate market value of all quoted equities had also risen from 2023’s opening value of N27.915 trillion to close the year at N40.918 trillion. It had recorded N22.297 trillion as opening value for 2022.

    Voices of hopes

    President Bola Tinubu, whose pro-market stance has been credited as a major force behind the increasingly positive perception of the market, has promised to sustain the momentum. Tinubu said the market is the economy and as such the government’s focus would remain unwavering in promoting attractive environment. “With the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) crossing the historic N100 trillion market capitalisation mark, the country is witnessing the birth of a new economic reality and rejuvenation”, Tinubu said, noting that the stock market performance underscored a fundamental shift in how Nigeria is perceived by global investors.

    Tinubu expected a more robust outlook in 2026.

    He said: “The pipeline for new and upcoming listings looks robust. More indigenous energy firms, tech unicorns, telecoms, and infrastructure-heavy entities are seeking to access the public market to fund their expansion. As these firms are listed, they will boost market capitalisation and deepen democratic ownership of the Nigerian economy”.

    He assured that 2026 would deliver even stronger returns as the government’s economic reforms continue to gather momentum.

    He said: “Nation-building is a process, not a destination. Hard work, sacrifices, and the focus of its citizens build a nation. The N100 trillion market capitalisation is a signal to the world that the Nigerian economy is robust and productive.

    “As your leader, I pledge to continue working unrelentingly to build an egalitarian, transparent, and high-growth economy that will be further catalysed by the historic tax and fiscal reforms that came into full implementation from January 1”.

    The President said that the government would consolidate on the gains of the previous year with sustained focus on key fundamentals of the economy.

    He said: “Indeed, inflation is likely to fall below 10 per cent before the end of this year, leading to improved living standards and accelerated GDP growth. The year 2026 promises to be an epochal year for delivering prosperity to all Nigerians”.

    Read Also: Black Bulls’ coach  admits ‘unforced errors’ in loss to Enyimba

    Many of the new listings should come from the Tinubu’s government’s push for reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and commercial interests. At least, the government has said it was concluding arrangements to list two electricity distribution companies (DisCos) and one generation company (GenCo) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).  Director General, Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE), Mr. Ayodeji Gbeleyi, who was appointed by Tinubu mid 2024, said there would be unbundling of government’s equity stakes in two DisCos and a GenCo in first phase of transactions aimed at unlocking values and enhancing operating efficiency of national assets and state-owned enterprises.

    He explained that the unbundling would be done by offering part of government’s residual equity stakes in the three power companies to the investing public through initial public offerings (IPOs). The transactions would involve part of 40 per cent equity stake and 30 per cent equity stake jointly owned by federal and state governments in the DisCos and GenCo respectively.  A more market-driven Tinubu government could see full or partial privatisation of scores of SOEs, including such agencies such as the National Parks Service, Nigeria Film Corporation, Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), and the Federal Housing Authority (FHA).

    Group Managing Director, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), Mr. Temi Popoola said the market remains focused on sustaining the upward trend.

    He said the NGX would remain focused on deepening partnerships with regulators, issuers, market operators, policymakers, and the wider financial ecosystem to sustain the bullish momentum.

    “We are optimistic about the opportunities ahead and committed to positioning the Nigerian capital market as a key driver of economic growth and wealth creation, while advancing NGX Group’s vision as Africa’s preferred exchange hub,” Popoola said. The transition to a shorter trading settlement cycle, from four days, T+3, to three days, T+2, should enhance liquidity and price discovery.

    Chairman, Association of Securities Dealing Houses of Nigeria (ASHON), Mr. Sehinde Adenagbe however noted that while the market outlook remains positive, government should prioritise policy clarity to sustain investors’ confidence.

    “We need more clarity on the issue of capital gain tax (CGT) which dragged the market down by about N4.8 trillion in a single market day. We support stricter compliance reviews, faster reporting timelines, and unified digital reporting platforms to reduce information gaps. The Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025 is a landmark reform. It expands the definition of securities, strengthens investor protection, and brings new products, including digital assets, under regulation. ISA 2025 also enhances Securiteis and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s oversight powers and has contributed to Nigeria’s removal from the FATF grey list in October 2025, supporting smoother international transactions. Stable forex reforms and exchange-rate unification have improved pricing predictability for foreign investors, supporting increased capital inflows. Going forward, policies are needed to encourage new listings, long-term institutional investment, market infrastructure improvements, and security measures to create a safe investment environment,” Adenagbe said.

    He pointed out that while progress is evident, more work lies ahead.

    He said: “Policies encouraging new listings, long-term institutional investment, improved infrastructure, and enhanced security will be critical. Our association is committed to safeguarding investor interests, enhancing transparency, and driving reforms to make the capital market more competitive, inclusive, and resilient”.

    Director General, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Dr. Emomotimi Agama said the apex capital market regulator would intensify implementation of the ISA 2025 with a view to strengthening investor confidence and market integrity.

    According to him, the commission would apply the new laws “firmly and impartially” to address market abuse, insider dealing, fraudulent investment schemes, and other forms of misconduct in the capital market.

    He however stressed that enforcement actions would be guided by due process and the rule of law, adding that predictable and consistent regulation remains critical to building trust among investors.

    “We will regulate not to stifle, but to catalyse. We will enforce not to punish, but to protect and build trust,” Agama said.

    As the political campaigns hot up, a stable macroeconomic environment may be enough to keep the bulls coming.  And despite recent global frictions, there is a strong basis to assume stability.

  • Dr Muda Yusuf-Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE)

    Dr Muda Yusuf-Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE)

    The CPPE’s 2026 economic outlook is that of cautious optimism. With reform momentum sustained, Nigeria is expected to transition more decisively from stabilisation to growth. GDP growth is projected between 4.0 and 4.5 per cent, supported by continued moderation in inflation and stronger non-oil sector performance.

    Moderating inflation should strengthen domestic demand and create room for gradual monetary easing, potentially lowering interest rates and stimulating private investment. Services—especially telecommunications, finance, construction, real estate and trade—will remain the primary growth engine.

    Capital-market prospects are positive, supported by the potential listing of Dangote Refinery, which could deepen market liquidity and attract domestic and foreign portfolio inflows. Policy credibility remains strong, reinforcing investor confidence and capital inflows.

    Read Also: Muda Yusuf bows out of LCCI

    Key risks to the outlook include security challenges as insecurity continues to constrain agriculture, logistics and investment. Fiscal performance remains sensitive to oil shocks. High power, energy and logistics costs will continue to weigh on real-sector productivity. Debt service—estimated at over N15 trillion in the 2026 appropriation, about 50 per cent of projected revenue, continues to constrain fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions could affect trade flows, commodity prices and capital movements. Pre-election pressures exist as fiscal and political uncertainties in the pre-election year could heighten risks. Besides, emerging resistance may undermine tax revenue expectations for 2026.

    Overall, 2025 laid a solid foundation of macroeconomic stability. The outlook for 2026 is reassuring, with expectations of stronger growth, easing inflation, improving investor confidence and a gradual shift toward more inclusive expansion. If reform momentum is sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed, 2026 could mark the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards.

  • Cordros Capital Group

    Cordros Capital Group

    The 2026 outlook reflects a shift from a rebound to a measured economic renewal. The difficult reforms of the last few years, including currency realignment, fuel price liberalization, tighter monetary policy and renewed efforts to strengthen public finances, have begun to bear fruit in the form of firmer confidence, improving macro stability and a broader base of growth.

    In 2026, Nigeria’s economy is expected to gradually move beyond shock absorption and begin rebuilding around emerging drivers of expansion.

    On the real side, growth is expected to be anchored by three reinforcing pillars – a more reliable energy sector, a slow but steady industrial growth, and an expanding services economy. In oil and gas, the transfer of onshore and shallowwater assets to domestic operators, the construction of new evacuation and storage infrastructure, and improved security in producing areas are laying the groundwork for more stable output and fewer supply disruptions. Improved farmer access to mechanized farm tools is expected to spur farm output, though security and climate risks will remain binding constraints.

    Read Also: Stock market capitalisation hits N101 trillion

    Manufacturing stands to benefit from easier access to credit, a more stable exchange rate and improved availability of fuel and feedstocks as large private refineries ramp up operations. At the same time, incremental reforms in logistics, digital infrastructure, housing finance, and public–private partnerships are poised to drive growth in the services sector – particularly trade, real estate, ICT, finance, and transport -thereby reinforcing its position as the main driver of non-oil activity.

    Nigerian financial markets should remain resilient in 2026. Generally, we expect the fixed income market to be shaped by the expected disinflationary trend, slowly easing monetary policy stance, improving foreign exchange conditions, and continued fiscal improvements. While we believe the directional bias is clearly downward, we cite that certain factors could disrupt the trajectory. Factors such as, elevated fiscal deficits, renewed forex inadequacies, reversal in disinflation which could force the monetary authority to delay or moderate rate cuts. All in, we see NTB and bond yields trending toward c.12.5 per cent and c.12.9 per cent by end-2026.

    For equities, while risks remain present, the balance of probabilities remains favourable. All told, 2026 is positioned to extend the market’s recovery cycle as a progressively easing policy environment, firmer macro stability and deepening investor confidence reinforce both earnings resilience and valuation expansion across key sectors.

  • GTI Capital Group

    GTI Capital Group

    Nigeria’s domestic economy is navigating a reform-defining phase shaped by macroeconomic adjustment, demographic pressure, and policy realignment. After years of subdued growth driven by structural rigidities, foreign exchange distortions, and fiscal stress, the economy is gradually re-anchoring around market-based reforms that are reshaping growth dynamics, labour outcomes, and capital pricing.

    For investors, Nigeria remains a paradoxical market: short-term volatility is elevated, yet medium- to long-term fundamentals remain compelling, underpinned by scale, population growth, and sectoral depth. Understanding the interaction between inflation, exchange rates, GDP growth, unemployment, and interest rates is therefore critical to assessing domestic demand resilience and investment timing.

    In 2026, GDP growth is projected to accelerate to around 4.00 to 4.50 per cent as macro stabilization gains traction. Services are expected to remain the dominant growth driver, supported by recovering consumer purchasing power, digital adoption, and telecommunications expansion, including ongoing 5G rollout. Agriculture is projected to grow modestly at 3.50 to 3.80 per cent, constrained by insecurity but supported by targeted credit schemes and potential productivity gains if farmer-protection initiatives are sustained. Manufacturing remains the most vulnerable sector, with growth likely capped at 1.50-2.00% due to high borrowing costs and energy prices, although the full operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries could meaningfully reduce fuel-related input costs. The oil and gas sector is poised for a rebound, with crude production expected to stabilise around 1.70-1.80 million barrels per day as the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) implementation matures and pipeline security improves.

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    Nigeria’s domestic economy presents a cautiously constructive investment narrative. Structural reforms are improving transparency and policy credibility, growth is broadening beyond oil, and macro stability is gradually strengthening. However, material risks persist, including security challenges, infrastructure deficits, policy execution risks, pre-election and extra-budgetary outlay, and external shocks from global financial conditions such as rising protectionism and oil price volatility.

    For investors, this environment favours strategic selectivity, long-term positioning, and alignment with sectors that enhance productivity, employment quality, and domestic value creation. Nigeria remains a high-risk, high-potential market, but for patient capital with informed execution, the domestic economy continues to offer pathways to sustainable returns across the cycle.

  • Afrinvest West Africa Limited

    Afrinvest West Africa Limited

    Nigeria is heading into 2026 with the federal budget still in “patch-up” phase, following repeated extensions of the 2024 capital expenditure (CAPEX) implementation to December 2025. As a result, execution of the 2025 CAPEX has lagged significantly, with only about 24.8 per cent of the N23.4 trillion allocation expected to be implemented by year-end, leaving a sizable rollover into an uncertain 2026 fiscal framework. This misalignment reflects persistent revenue underperformance, fuelled partly by overly ambitious assumptions, and on the other hand, escalating expenditure pressures.

    Notably, while the Federal Government celebrated gross non-oil revenue collection overperformance in third quarter 2025 (N24.2 trillion versus N20.0 trillion budgeted), oil revenue component – projected to account for 50.3 per cent of the N40.9tn total revenue target – likely underperformed by at least 24.0 per cent, given average output of 1.66mbpd and an oil price of $70.92/bbl. as against 2.06mbpd and $75.00/bbl. budgeted. A notable insight from the 2026 budget presentation speech of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the National Assembly on December 19, 2025, was that actual revenue as of the end of Q3:2025, N18.2 trillion, trailed budgeted pro-rata by 40.7 per cent. The immediate consequence of this development is the overshooting of the estimated fiscal deficit for the year by 5.7 per cent to N14.8 trillion at the end of Q3.

    Looking ahead, effective fiscal management will be critical to sustaining the economic recovery, particularly amid pre-election dynamics and a resurgence in security challenges. Nonetheless, we project growth to strengthen to 4.3per cent in 2026, supported by improved inflation anchoring, FX stability, and sustained private-sector investment, particularly in the oil & gas, telecommunications, and agriculture sectors.

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    The fixed income landscape is expected to remain selective. Inflation moderation, stabilising policy expectations, and disciplined issuance provide support for returns; however, heavy domestic funding needs and active liquidity management by the CBN are likely to keep system liquidity structurally constrained. Market performance is therefore expected to favour carry efficiency, roll-down strategies, and medium-tenor positioning, with gradual scope for duration re-engagement contingent on the pace of policy easing and the balance between yield compression and inflation dynamics.

    Our outlook for 2026 is constructive, anchored by favourable macroeconomic and market dynamics. In our base case scenario, we project a 40.9 per cent gain in the NGX-ASI, supported by sustained price and naira stability, gradual monetary policy easing, improved corporate earnings, elevated pre-election liquidity, and aggressive capital mobilisation by insurance companies and PFAs, with additional upside from anticipated listings such as Dangote Petrochemicals. Upside risks include sharper disinflation and stronger FX inflows, while downside risks stem from renewed inflationary pressures, forex volatility, weak foreign participation, and delays in expected listings.