I have read the scathing criticisms that have trailed the comments made by the former Governor of Kaduna state, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai with respect to his decision to run a Muslim-dominated government between 2019 and 2023 when he handed over the reins of government in the state and what played out during the presidential election in 2023.
As a Southern Christian, I was almost taken in by the hoopla and hysteria that greeted the comments and wondered why any leader would make such comments at a time like this in a divided and diversified country like ours.
But, upon a careful analysis of the contents and context of the comments made by El-Rufai, I came to the conclusions that I would espouse presently.
Broadly speaking, El-Rufai spoke about the politics of Kaduna state, his analysis and what has worked for him and his team since 2019; and how the same played out at the national level in 2023.
First, it was reported that his audience were Muslim clerics. For those schooled in the field of communication and the art of public speaking, they would know that the audience is key just as the medium is said to be the message. If you do not speak the language of your audience or talk to them in the language they would understand, then, you have not communicated.
Secondly, he spoke about what has worked for him since 2019 and was replicated in the 2023 elections, not just in Kaduna state but also at the federal level. Whether anyone likes it or not, what he said are indubitable facts staring us in the face. We may resent or even deride it but it does not change the cold facts. What do I mean? When El-Rufai ran for the first term in 2015, he had a Christian running mate in the late Architect Barnabas Bala (a.k.a Bantex) who was the deputy governor until 2019 when he resigned to contest the Kaduna South Senate seat on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) but lost to Senator Danjuma La’ah of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Has anyone bothered to find out why the same El-Rufai who had a Christian running mate and deputy governor during his first term turn round to prefer a Muslim-Muslim ticket that has won elections twice and now projecting into the future? Instead of taking the message and learning useful lessons, most of us are ignoring the message and toeing the easy path of attacking the messenger.
Now, according to El-Rufai, he did his calculation and found that most of those who are not Muslims do not vote for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kaduna state. His words, “Why did I pick Dr Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe to be my deputy in 2019? First, I did a thorough calculation that most of those that are not Muslims don’t vote for our party (The All Progressives Congress). Most of them. So, why should I give them the deputy (governor) position? I did my calculation and I knew we could win the election without giving them (position of deputy governor). That’s first. That’s a purely political issue. It’s politics. You want to win an election, you’re looking for people that will vote for you. We have observed that since we started practising democracy, we know places we used to win elections and those places we don’t. We’ve done that calculation politically. That’s the political point of it.”
The operative words are “calculation” and “non-Muslims”. One would have expected that those excoriating El-Rufai will provide their numbers that would put a lie to his assertions. But, no. However, what we do know which is in the public domain was that in what looked like a political suicide, El-Rufai picked a Muslim woman to be his running mate in 2019 and got re-elected. It is fact! Yet again, a further extrapolation of “non-Muslims” could be stretched to mean Christians, traditional worshippers, atheists and the like. But even if it meant Christians, the deed has been done; the next most important thing is: beyond the name-calling, what are my brothers and sisters in Christ doing to change the narrative?
Then El-Rufai went on to declare that he and his team wanted to prove that a Muslim-led or dominated government would not cheat Christians and would be fair and just to all, regardless of their religious beliefs. Of course, the next question that comes to mind is: why would anyone ever contemplate a government led or dominated by a particular religion in a complex state like Kaduna? But the reality and bitter truth is: it is in the nature of politics and democracy that people are rewarded for their votes, loyalty and merit or if you like value addition – in no particular order – and at the discretion of the appointing authorities.
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Yet, it is not the case that Christians were not appointed into positions of authority in Kaduna state. For instance, I heard that the Account-General of the state, Commissioner for Education, Commissioner for Internal Security and Deputy Chief of Staff, among others, were Christians. My little research about Mallam as he is fondly called showed that some of his close aides and associates are Christians from the South who have been his friends for decades.
Reflecting further on his second term, the election of his successor and projecting into the future, El-Rufai urged his audience to ensure not just the return of Senator Uba Sanni and Dr. Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe at the completion of their first term but to repeat the same feat for another eight years, making it a 24-year rule. Now, this to me is a mere wish or at best a plan that has been let out of the bag. Again, I ask: beyond the tagging and name-calling, what are those opposed to this wish or plan doing to counter it and make their own wish or plan come to fruition? After all, is it not said that democracy is a game of numbers? Is the plurality of opinions and choices no longer one of the beauties of democracy?
Whereas there has been much Ado about the Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna state, nothing is being said of the Christian-Christian ticket in the neighbouring Plateau state where the Christian-Muslim population is like the Muslim-Christian population in Kaduna state.
The other leg of El-Rufai’s comments was about what played out at the national level during the 2023 general election. We were all living witnesses to how one of the presidential candidates started going to churches and attending church organised programmes that he had never attended and may never attend again except during electioneering. We also saw the prevarication of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and religious bodies who wanted a Southern Christian as President but lacked the courage to either say so or are without the wherewithal to make it happen. Even where they preferred the other Muslim-Christian ticket, they lacked the balls or conviction to categorically say so or work for it. I know for a fact that while some clerics and christian bodies spoke against the same faith ticket, many of them could not tell their adherents or members who to vote for. So, they were caught in-between voting for Labour Party’s Southern Christian and Northern Muslim ticket or PDP’s Northern Muslim and Southern Christian ticket. Although some clerics may have directly or indirectly told their followers who to vote for, there was no proof they heeded such admonition or directive.
As it is often said there is no use crying over spilt milk. The 2023 elections have been won and lost. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Southern Muslim and Senator Kashim Shettima, a Northern Muslim contested and won the presidential election. It is an undeniable fact. And some persons made it happen. Mallam Nasir El-Rufai was one of them. He gave insights into how it happened. Instead of digesting it and draw useful lessons from it, some are shouting on the rooftops and abusing him. The man has made his point and has since moved on. People may argue and haggle over what he said, but the point has been well made.
Some may deride El-Rufai, criticise and even call him names but it does not change the essence of the man. It is a fact that the totality of our background, training, beliefs and experience form who we are and our worldview. Some may lie and pretend to be who they are not. But, from the little I have seen and read about El-Rufai from afar, he is one Nigerian who is ever true to himself, his friends and whatever he believes in. He does not pretend. He speaks his mind and does whatever he believes in, no matter whose ox is gored. Above all, once he gives his words on anything, he does not waver, no matter what happens.
Already, the aggrieved are at the election petitions tribunals to ventilate their grievances as provided by extant laws. Until the tribunals give contrary verdicts, we can only reflect on what happened in the past, relate it to the present and then project into the future. That is all Mallam Nasir El-Rufai has done. He has pricked our minds with his account and reflections on the politics of Kaduna state and Nigeria as a whole. Let the debate begin. Perhaps, we should start asking some salient questions: why was it that a Muslim-Christian ticket did not win the last two governorship elections in Kaduna state? Why was it that a Northern Muslim-Southern Christian ticket did not win the 2023 presidential election? Why didn’t a Southern Christian and Northern Muslim presidential ticket also win? Why was it a Southern Muslim and Northern Muslim ticket that won? Would it be possible to have a Southern Christian and Northern Christian win an election in the nearest future? These should be the stuff that the political class, scholars, analysts and all lovers of democracy should be interested in.
° *Oniyokor, a journalist and public affairs analyst writes from Lagos.
