Despite the havoc the 2012 floods wreaked on Nigerians, seasonal climate predictions (SCP) released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) have often been ignored. This attitude has resulted in massive human and material losses witnessed in the 2022 flood disaster. FAITH YAHAYA reports that adhering to these warnings will boost economic growth and prevent human and material losses
Yearly, calls to heed the seasonal climate prediction (SCP) released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) heighten. Despite these year-on-year warnings toward averting natural disasters such as floods, Nigerians seem to regard them as mere ineffectual speculations. Their approach to these calls or warnings is usually total disregard. This nonchalant attitude is not without sure consequences.
NiMet’s annual predictions provide accurate, timely, and quality weather and climate information which is aimed at proffering pieces of advice for different tiers of government and the general public on weather and climate-related issues. The predictions, if adhered to, are expected to boost economic growth and prevent human and material losses occasioned by adverse weather conditions.
Despite the release of the predictions yearly, Nigeria still records the loss of lives and properties in addition to displacements caused by flooding. According to the Director-General of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Mustapha Ahmed, 662 people lost their lives, 3,174 others suffered injuries and 2,430,445 individuals were displaced during the 2022 floods. Thousands of houses, hectares of farmlands, and several critical national assets were also destroyed by the floods.
On the economic impact of the flood, the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development, Sadiya Farouq, said the country lost about $6,681 billion to the 2022 flood. “The extent of the population affected and houses damaged or destroyed in 2022 is worse than the 2012 flooding in some localised areas. The analysis estimates that the total direct economic damage, based on current reported statistics as of November 25 is in the range of $3.79 billion to $9.12 billion with the best (median) estimate at $6.68 billion.
“This includes damage to residential and non-residential buildings, including building contents as well as damage to infrastructure, productive sectors, and farmlands. The number of people affected has risen over the season since June up to between 4.4 million and 4.9 million affected people as of November 25. All the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) were affected by the 2022 flood, with varying degrees of damage and people affected. States worse affected are Jigawa, Rivers, Taraba, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa,” she said.
In its 2022 assessment of flood reports, the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) also revealed that N700 billion was lost to the 2022 flood incidences in the food system of the agriculture sector. The report reveals: “The total amount of the loss of crops such as rice, plantain, maize, cowpea sorghum, vegetables, yam, millets, cassava, groundnut, sesame, soybeans, potatoes and, tomatoes were at the total cost of N384, 465,859,168, while assessment impact on livestock such as cattle, poultry, goats, sheep, pigs, and snails is put at N93, 049,641,000.
“Also, the assessment of flood impact on catfish and tilapia is put at N100, 256, 747, 500 as the total loss on agricultural structures and farmlands, including farmlands, roads and bridges, farm buildings, fish ponds, warehouses, farm stores, farm barns, thatched houses, huts and pens totalling N120, 022, 573,000.”
Continuing, the NAERLS report stated: “The 2022 floods in Nigeria were caused mainly by heavy precipitation, ill-managed runoffs and unregulated river flow, especially from River Benue. The assessment showed that the 2022 flood damaged crops; washed off farmlands and destroyed livestock and fish resources. The enormous flood is a potential threat to food security. An estimated sum of N700 billion was lost due to the flood.”
The data indicate that the loss recorded from the 2022 flood was enormous, though avoidable if the prediction was taken seriously and heeded.
What to expect this year
The Director-General of NEMA said: “It is going to flood again this year. There is no doubt about it. But how severe it will be is what we don’t know yet, but it is going to flood again.” He advised stakeholders to brace up and prepare to mitigate the likelihood of flood this year. “This year, I expect stakeholders, including the state governments to ensure early preparation and to match words with action.”
As usual, many sectors may be affected this year. The transport sector was hugely affected last year due to the heavy rainfall. Roads were impassable, which made travelling and other products trapped on the road for weeks. This situation also resulted in fuel scarcity and untold hardship.
The prediction from NiMet as it concerns the road sector reads: “The 2023 seasonal outlook projects a long rainy season, with prospects of near-normal to above-normal rainfall amount. This means that there may be more convective rains which are usually of high intensity and accompanied by strong winds. These can affect road transport as travel times will be longer.
“Heavy rains can lead to flash-flooding and temporal closure of roads. It can lead to the collapse of weak roads and bridges, thereby cutting off the passage from one location to another. Strong winds can pull down huge trees and communication masts which can block roads temporarily. The 2023 prediction indicates that temperatures are expected to be generally warmer than normal. This will have implications for road transport. The tarred roads will be more prone to warping when temperatures are extremely high.”
The projected rainfall pattern in 2023 implies that there would be frequent heavy rains during the long rainy season. The convective rains accompanied by strong winds will lead to more cases of flight disruption. The increased chances of aquaplaning following rainfalls on the runway have significant safety implications. Aquaplaning could cause the aircraft to skid off the runway. The projected high temperatures will increase the prospects of wind shear and air turbulence. The prospects of increased mid-latitude wave activity will also increase the spate of raising dust and dust haze conditions which can increase the chances of flight delays and cancellations due to the attendant poor horizontal visibility.
There will be more disruptions to flight operations because of more convective activities (wind shear, microburst, poor visibility due to heavy rain).
“The rail sector within the space of one week witnessed the derailment of the trains on its Warri-Itakpe corridor and the Abuja-Kaduna corridor. Though the reason for it is not made public, there are, however, indications that it was due to track expansion.
“The derailment caused discomfort, and loss of resources as that of Warri-Itakpe remains suspended. It is a trying time for the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) as the suspension has undoubtedly led to economic loss and reduced its projected revenue generation.”
To reduce further loss, NiMet, in its prediction stated: “Rail track buckling; rail tracks are made of steel, and they expand in hot weather. Without adequate expansion gaps in between tracks, the thermal expansion could result in the buckling of the tracks. Therefore, there are chances of rail line buckling with the warmer temperatures predicted over most parts of the country, especially in March, April, and May.”
NiMet advised the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC) and other relevant stakeholders adhere to an advisory from it, as well as other updates for planning and operations to reduce risk and increase efficiency. It added that there should be periodic monitoring of rail tracks for possible damage during hot weather.
The Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Mansur Matazu, said the early release of the SCP will give room for adequate planning. “We released the SCP for 2023 in January. We used to release it in February but this year, because what we passed through in 2012 was real and extremely rare for all of us, and almost all the states were flooded, and with loss of lives and property, damage to infrastructure nationwide, the President gave a marching order for improvement in providing early warning services and we took that directive.
“The early release of the document will give about two to three months for planning. It is called lead time. The lead time is the difference between the time you release a forecast and the time of occurrence of the season. So, for the southern season, we give two months of lead time and in the north, it will be around four to five months of lead time. So, the lead time is enough for all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) at the federal, state, and local government levels to key in and integrate the information into their planning activities in different sectors.”
The Director-General of Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), Clement Nze, in anticipation of the outcome of the prediction, urged residents of flood-prone areas to relocate. “If you are told to relocate, please relocate. It is someone alive that will lay claim to ancestral homes.”
