Author: The Nation

By Marc Thiriet

There has been much discussion about Africa’s ability to ‘leapfrog’ the way power systems have been built in the western world. For over a century, traditional power systems have been based on centralised power generation, with a limited number of large thermal power plants providing baseload electricity through a massive transmission network. This way to generate power is however coming to an end: the climate emergency is calling for a 180-degrees paradigm shift in which renewables replace thermal power plants as the baseload source of energy.

 This new power generation paradigm is, in many ways, a perfect fit for Africa. The continent enjoys some of the highest wind and solar energy resources on the planet, which means that the renewable energy plants built here boast some of the best productivity rates in the world. Almost anywhere in Africa, renewables are the cheapest power generation option available today by a significant margin.

Although relatively ambitious renewable energy targets have been set by most governments across the continent, there is still widespread scepticism that renewable energy, which is intermittent by nature, can provide a reliable source of baseload power. This scepticism is unjustified. With the appropriate deployment of grid balancing technologies like gas engine power plants or energy storage, huge amounts of renewable energy can be built in the system while at the same time ensuring a stable and reliable network. Energy experts at Wärtsilä, who have built 76 GW/ of power plant capacity/ in 180 countries around the world, certainly know a thing or two about that.

 Building reliable power systems

Yes, renewables are intermittent, but it’s a challenge that we have long known how to solve, providing the need for flexible power capacity is not underestimated.

 As intermittent renewable energy becomes the new baseload, the system will have to cope with a large amount of variable power that can disrupt the grid. Flexible power must therefore be available to ramp up production at the same rate that wind or solar production fluctuates, but also to match the fluctuating energy demand within the day. System imbalances can be at times huge, but the system will stay safe as long as renewable energy deployment is matched with corresponding levels of flexible power capacity.

Flexible engine power plants are the only technology designed to work hand-in-hand with renewables, as they can efficiently cope with multiple daily start and stops. They also offer the significant advantage of being able to run on different fuels, from natural gas and heavy fuel oil today, to locally produced hydrogen and biofuels tomorrow as they become competitive and broadly available. Thanks to this multi-fuel capability, not only do engine power plants provide a great hedge against fuel supply risk, but they are also the ultimate “future-proof” technology for energy leapfrogging, as the gas engines can simply be converted to run on green fuels like hydrogen to reach 100% renewables. Engine power plants offer a solid, long-term foundation on which African countries can build modern and resilient clean power systems.

Energy leapfrogging requires a tailor-made approach

Delivering on energy leapfrogging is going to be a complex, multi-decade process. Each country in Africa features its own unique mix of natural resources, geographical opportunities and constraints, population density, alongside a myriad of other parameters. Each country will therefore require its own tailor-made and optimal power system expansion plan to accomplish its leapfrogging.

What would such a plan look like in practice? Let’s take Nigeria as an example. Using advanced energy system modelling techniques, Wärtsilä’s analysts have designed a detailed roadmap showing how Nigeria could proceed to build a 100% renewable energy power system and meet its 2060 net zero target.

According to our models, by 2060 Nigeria’s power capacity should consist of 1,200 GW of renewable energy and require a total of 283 GW of energy storage and 34 GW of flexible engine power plants for grid balancing purposes. On the other hand, inflexible sources of power like coal, oil or gas turbine power plants have now become the exception rather than the norm.

For this plan to succeed, Nigeria’s domestic gas must still play a crucial transition role: It will be mobilised as an inexpensive bridging fuel for engine power plants, in support of intermittent renewable energy generation, until these plants can be converted to run purely on green hydrogen in the early 2040’s.

This is the soundest power system from both an environmental and economic standpoint. Our research indeed shows that investing in renewable energy and flexibility from gas engines and energy storage is the most cost-effective way for Nigeria to reduce energy costs, increase energy access and improve grid reliability. For the plan to succeed, however, the country will have to greatly improve its power transmission infrastructure, develop a strong and dependable policy framework, and attract significant investment.

 The global shift to renewable energy provides Nigeria, and Africa as a whole, with a unique opportunity to leapfrog the carbon-based power systems that have been the norm in the West. Delivering on this opportunity would represent a giant step forward in the country’s development. But an adequate and carefully planned deployment of flexible power technologies to balance the intermittency of renewables is the sine qua non condition for energy leapfrogging to succeed in Nigeria, as anywhere else on the continent.

•Thiriet is director, Africa, Wärtsilä Energy.

By Olalekan A. Babatunde

Last week, the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu issued a signed statement titled, “Nigeria: At the Cusp of Renewed Hope”, that was captured in the media by various headlines. In the 1,346-word treatise, it was the part that mentioned, ”There has been talk of a government of national unity. My aim is higher than that. I seek a government of national competence. In selecting my government, I shall not be weighed down by considerations extraneous to ability and performance”, that invoked various headlines. 

While some said the president-elect would place more priority to national competence than national unity in selecting political office holders in his government, others captioned it as national competence and not national unity will determine the selection. The debates that followed the reports on mainstream media, social media, private and public spaces made the reports worse. Expectedly, while some supported the plan, others did not. 

But reading the whole document, the president-elect says that his incoming administration would place more priority to national competence and character than national unity in the selection of political appointees including women and youth to build a safer, more prosperous and just Nigeria. This indicates the time of gaining sympathy or entitlement into political positions through propaganda and gamesmanship is long gone.

Based on our nation’s history, past wrongs, and the principles and practices of peacebuilding, this write-up explains how competence can actually foster unity as against some of the opinions generated in the debates in a country earnestly yearning for unity and harmony.

Comparatively, Tinubu’s competence-centric plan can be likened to Professor Kishore Mahbubani’s description of the secret formula behind Singapore’s transition from a poor developing country to a first world country. According to the former dean of Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, MPH (meritocracy, pragmatism and honesty) is the formula. The best are selected to run the country. He attributed the downfall of third world countries to the leaders’ penchant for appointing relatives and friends instead of the best people to positions of responsibility. Pragmatism portends adopting ideology once it is effective in accomplishing expected results regardless of where it comes from, while honesty is just the opposite of corruption. Whoever in government position found to be dishonest should go to jail no matter whose ox is gored. This will send a deterrent message to others. The combination of the formula is at the heart of nation-building.  

In Nigeria, part of the problems of nation-building has been the inability to adhere to the Singapore’s formula. Putting capable and efficient persons (meritocracy excluding mediocrity) to govern public institutions with relevant approach (pragmatism) and discipline (honesty and patriotism) will nurture cordial relationships among ethnic groups. Leaders will be able to harness groups’ competencies to promote fairness, social justice and peaceful co-existence. Appointees who do not have understanding of the specialized knowledge needed for a particular field and the discipline are bound to encounter challenges inimical to Nigeria’s interests and values. Nigeria must be re-invented into a society governed by people selected according to merit, and not by wealth or birth. 

It suffices to reflect back. The prevailing conflict and violence can be attributed to the inability of the democratic dispensation since 1999 to address decades of marginalization, rights abuses, political alienation, and subversion of public institutions witnessed during the decades of military dictatorship. Initiatives to build a strong, virile democracy are thwarted mainly due to mediocrity and unpatriotic motives. For example, the report of the Human Rights Violations Investigations Commission (Oputa Panel) set up in June 1999 by the Olusegun Obasanjo administration to heal the wounds of the past, assuage the aggrieved individuals and ethnic groups and rebuild relationship through love, forgiveness, reconciliation and reparation did not see the light of the day. 

In his inauguration, President Obasanjo charged Nigerians on the task ahead while giving a glimpse of what to expect (Selected Speeches of President Obasanjo, Federal Ministry of Information, 2001, p.18): 

I shall end this address by stressing again that we must change our ways of governance and of doing business on this eve of the coming millennium. This we must do to ensure progress, justice, harmony and unity and above all, to rekindle confidence amongst our people. Confidence that their conditions will rapidly improve and that Nigeria will be great and will become a major world player in the near future.

Instead of peace, the democracy began to generate inter and intra-communal conflicts as grudges, frustrations and grievances over past misgovernment led to violent agitations like the Niger Delta militancy, Odu’a People’s Congress, Arewa Peoples’ Congress, Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), and other ethnic militias and religious bigots. Nigerians became angry, bitter and intolerant of one another. The mistrust among groups escalated to tensions and violence in many communities as Jos, Kaduna, Sagamu, Ijaw-Itsekiri, and Ife-Modakeke. Some saw imbalance and injustice in the federating units, political appointments, federal allocations, resource control, and other related issues. The resurgent violence, kidnapping, banditry and terrorism that followed years after have consumed several lives and property including displacement from homes and livelihoods. The report of the 2014 National Conference is also lying fallow.

The inability of institutional mechanisms to manage the transition through public policies and programmes could also be attributed to incompetence and politicization. Meeting the hopes and aspirations of Nigerians demands meritocracy, pragmatism and honesty. In fact, Tinubu is elected because of the past. The past is so important to the incoming administration in its promise to build national unity. “The ills of the past” mentioned in his statement can be healed by good governance in which the competent appointees will promote.

Thus, the incoming administration should extend its hand of fellowship and friendship to all Nigerians. All the ethnic groups have competence. Talents, education and ability abound in Nigeria especially given their exploits in developed countries. For instance, Nigerians are appointed into Biden and UK governments. They are in legislative houses in Europe and Canada. What is most needed is patriotism and discipline, which must be exhibited by both the leaders and the led. 

Path to peace and unity is assured when the cabinet’s top down demonstrates competence in regular monitoring and assessment across political and administrative positions. Otherwise, corruption, injustice and impunity that incompetence brews would further fuel the deep-seated hostilities among the over 250 tribal groups. Competence and truth in governance should advance historical dialogue, nurture trust, confidence, openness and transparency capable of reconciling those who feel excluded by the past political appointments, aggrieved at elections’ outcomes and restore harmony in our country.

That is, I will like to see more focus on monitoring of competent people. Highlighting competence and delivering its success largely depends on follow up. If our institutions are to serve equality and justice, we need to monitor the appointees. Competent officials can seize the opportunity presented by weak leadership to polarize the politics through conflicts and insensitivity to other groups’ values, interests and needs. The president-elect must be ready to take on this demanding task by mobilizing and extending the knowledge, experience and resources of past responsibilities.

Mobilizing the knowledge on a national scale will build national unity. Competent administration will provide governance and direction to encourage national consciousness and patriotism needed for development and harmony.

In other words, Nigerians expect un-politicized competence from the incoming administration. Those who worked for its success are stakeholders who when appointed to run affairs of the state should be conflict sensitive in development programming. Indeed, this is the core area where national competence will be brought to bear. Bridges and roads should not only to be built in the corners and crannies of the country, but also in the minds and hearts of the people who are often suspicious of one another over their backgrounds and orientations.

National unity is the intersection of truth, equality, justice, good governance, and inclusion in which competent officials can bring to bear. Putting right peg in the right hole, that is, positioning capable and efficient persons to govern public institutions will maximize the influence, benefit and impact of the next government. We need new ways and skilled technocrats of promoting national cohesion and inclusive government. Competence will help to mitigate the socio-cultural and political divisions. There would be an all-round development that will rebuild trust among the tribal groups and foster national unity. The key element is this scenario is good governance. To deepen the root of democracy and build a virile and united Nigeria, political appointees should see their calling as national obligations to salvage a country on the cusp of renewed change.

•Babatunde, PhD, is a fellow and peacebuilding strategist at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Abuja.