The Nation Newspaper

Category: Baba Yusuf

  • Imperative of state, community policing

    Imperative of state, community policing

    The need for the establishment of state policing is long overdue. Therefore, the meeting convened by President Tinubu last week to initiate a process to set up state policing is a welcome development. However, I have some concerns about how the structure and setup of the state and community policing will be, so that we ensure that we have a state and community policing that will succeed.

     PROCESS AND MODALITIES

    I am of the opinion that some of the key next steps include; the setup of think tanks for state and community police at national and state levels; undertaking gap analyses at national and state levels and follow-up comparison of notes to ensure that common issues and also peculiarities are identified ab initio, so that the state legislations will address those common issues and also peculiarities to ensure the formulation of coherent policies and operational protocols that will handshake the federal policy framework for efficiencies, effectiveness and positive impacts; there should also be robust stakeholder engagements to get the buy-in of all stakeholders.

      I am aware that there are some papers and term sheets on community policing that have been done by some stakeholders. There are/were also existing community policing models in Nigeria that have been operational, for example, the Hisbah in Kano State, the Amotekoun in Ondo State, and the Ebube Agu in Ebonyi State. Therefore, Committees and national and state levels of people of proven experience, expertise, track record, and integrity, could be mandated as think tanks to come up with some concepts that would be reviewed at state and national levels as part of the process of achieving robust, practical, achievable and effective community policing models.

     The next crucial step is the legislative process, to enable the enactment of State and community policing at local government, state, and national levels. I recognize the fact that the 10th National Assembly and some states have already initiated processes of constitutional review and legislation to that effect. However, an important question for us to immediately address includes: what are the roles of the state and community police? What could be the interplays or interplaying roles between the local government, and the state and federal police? What will be the state of play? What would be the protocols and/ or standard operating procedures (SOPs)? What would be the escalation points, and what would be the boundaries of authority and accountability? What will be the safeguards to ensure that the state Governors do not abuse the powers of controlling the state and/ or local government police? etc.

     It is worthy of note that the role of community policing is largely information and intelligence gathering, fostering peaceful co-existence, ensuring some level of law enforcement, and taking pre-emptive and preventive measures/steps, to curtail or contain threats (kinetic and non-kinetic) while relating and keying-into the federal policy when and if necessary. There is the notion the state police could also be armed, and that is why the legislative process is very important. Readers may recall that in February last year, Justice Riman Fatun of the Federal High Court, Abakalaki, disbanded the Ebubeagu as a result of illegal arrests, extortions, possession of illegal firearms, human rights abuses, etc. This is a reminder of how important the process of setting up the state and community police will be in ensuring that it will not be abused.

     In addition, because it will be a new instrument of power and coercion at the subnational since its existence and abolishment in Nigeria over 60 years ago, we should expect and plan to deal with the teething problems of how such immense power of the state should be managed and if necessary contained especially given the fact that even the Nigerian Police Force is facing multiple cases of abuse of power, human rights abuses, etc. Therefore, the fundamentals of community policing have to be right strong, and the pillars have to be firm and enduring. I advocate for thorough legislation, I urge us not to “rush” the legislation and in the process enact weak laws to support our community policing which in the end could backfire on the good citizens and residents of Nigeria. We must be careful with the timeline of legislation before enactment into law, then the setup of the forces, the recruitment process, the tooling and kitting, doctrine and training, etc. before fully operationalizing the community police forces, and then we start feeling impacts. In my opinion, an expedited process could take up to 1 year or more before we start seeing and feeling the overall impact of Community policing depending on how seriously it is taken and how well it is set up and activated at the subnational level.

    THE BIGGER PICTURE OBJECTIVE- THE NIGERIA ARMED FORCES

     While the euphoria of the need for setting up community policing is overtaking us, we should not lose sight of the bigger objective. The Nigerian Armed Forces are seriously undermanned and under-served. There are currently about 370,000 policemen and women in the Nigeria Police Force with a ratio of 1 police officer to 600 Nigerians. Recently the IGP made a public declaration that the Nigeria Police force requires an additional 190,000 personnel which in my opinion is not even enough, we have less than 300,000 military personnel, and less than 30,000 Nigeria Immigration officers manning our land, marine, and air borders, with over 1,400 unmanned and illegal land borders. Secure borders are a critical success factor in securing the nation.  There are also less than 10,000 Nigerian Civil Defense Corps officers in the entire Country. The aforementioned law enforcement agencies have their statutory roles in maintaining law and order and also ensuring Nigeria’s internal security. The shortfall of boots on the ground of these agencies is reflecting the increasing state of insecurity in Nigeria.  Therefore, while we are addressing the issue of state and community policing, I urge President Tinubu and the National Assembly to as a matter of national priority increase the capacity of our military, police, immigration, civil defense corps, and other law enforcement agencies so that we don’t lose focus on the bigger picture and come back later to react to multi-dimensional challenges that we may not be able to contain.

    Read Also: EFCC chairman bags Fraud Investigators Institute’s Fellowship

     FUNDING IMPERATIVES

    While we are all excited about State and community policing, let us also note that for the past 5 years about 20 States of the Federation have not been paying the minimum wages of N30,000.00 agreed to between the Government and organized labor since 2019. Some states regularly owe the state employees monthly salaries sometimes for months. Now we have a very crucial national priority of tackling insecurity. The Community Policing project will test the resolve of the governors because state police have to be funded by the State Governments. The man and material resources requirement to set up and operate state police in terms of Capital Expenditure and operations expenses and recurring expenses must be properly planned and catered for. I believe that we should have robust, fully functional, efficient, and effective community policing and not a ragtag arrangement of some people who will not be able to deliver the mandate. 

     CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL ABUSE OF THE POWER OF COERCION BY THE GOVERNORS

    I share the concern of many Nigerians about the possible abuse of the State Police if and when enacted into law by some State Governors, to the detriment of democracy, and the fundamental human rights of the people. There are concerns that some Governors could abuse this instrument of coercion and power to their undue advantage while they use the same instrument to anybody or people that they consider adversaries. I have given an instance with the abolishment of Ebubeagu by the Federal High Court in Ebonyi. We have a political system that has given so much power to the Governors and to that extent, such powers are misused by some Governors.  Therefore, the concern is how these organizations will be properly and adequately used for the purpose and objectives that will be set and not for political and/ or parochial interests.

     Accordingly, it is important that the National Assembly make adequate provisions of safeguards during the amendment of the Constitution to ensure that there can be interventions by the 4 arms of the Federal Government (Executive, Legislative, and Judiciary) to save any state that will be unfortunate to have Governor who will use the State Police structure and machinery for monstrous purposes or any reason(s) other than to protect and serve the peoples. If this is not done then the State police will become a problem that will be worse than our mounting socio-economic and security challenges because we would have given constitutional backing to anarchy.

  • Cost of living, price control and other matters

    Cost of living, price control and other matters

    “If people cannot trust their Government to do the job for which it exists – to protect them and promote their welfare – all else is lost”- Barrack Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America.

    THE NEED FOR URGENT ACTION

    The cost of living crisis in Nigeria is rising to epic proportions which if not addressed decisively will plunge this country into a worse national dilemma.

     I applaud the increase in the level of seriousness with which President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is trying to tackle the issue with the convening of a meeting yesterday, with Governors and other critical stakeholders in Government yesterday to look into the issue, the setup of the presidential committee to review the minimum wage, the intervention of releasing over 24,000 tonnes of grains, etc. This is a follow-up to the declaration of emergency on food insecurity last year and also the action points with the NLC/TUC about 6 months ago, etc.

     While the above initiatives are laudable and reflect the readiness of the administration of President Tinubu to mitigate the impact of the subsidy removal and other economic downturns, it is important that decision-makers, leaders at various strata, and critical stakeholders note that urgent execution of the action points hitherto agreed to and committed to with follow-up milestones communication and corrective actions taken if and when necessary are essential to successfully managing this very worrisome situation which is actually a global malaise, albeit worsened in Nigeria by the bad choices and actions/inactions of previous administrations at Federal and State levels.

    MINIMUM WAGE SHOULD TAKE WORKERS HOME

    The current cost of living crisis in Nigeria is not a function of food scarcity, but a function of purchasing power due to the eroding value of the Naira and the non-increment of the wages and salaries of workers in Nigeria for over 14 years. This is more so despite the fact that the 2018/2019 increase of minimum wage to N30,000 is yet to be applied by about 20 States in Nigeria – and that’s the bottom line.

     Importantly, I hope and pray that the outcome of the work by the Minimum Wage Review Committee set up by President Tinubu with the Chairman Vice President Kashim Shettima as the Chairman will improve the welfare and livelihood of the Nigerian workers so that they get succor because the rising cost of living is a very big issue, Nigerians are really struggling.

     CONTAINING THE RISING COST OF LIVING VERSUS PRICE CONTROL

    The issues of price control can be traced to the fundamental issues of the erosion of our value systems in Nigeria. The fact that unscrupulous traders and businesses are looking for the slightest opportunity to over-price their goods and services due to the sheer wickedness of desire to profit on the suffering of their fellow citizens and yet they blame only the government for our woes is pathetic, to say the least. Therefore, I agree that we should have a mechanism that will be controlling those excesses or extortion.

    Read Also: How Wigwe’s aide escaped death

    However, if we continue chasing those wicked traders and businessmen/women without dealing with the foundational issues, we will perpetually continue to face these recurring issues.  Nigeria has a galloping inflation that is currently hovering close to 30% with no indication that it will slow down in the short to midterm, with the debt profile and issue of cost of borrowing, etc. We may be facing the vagaries of inflation and the consequent brutal economic impacts for the next 6 months or even more.

     Therefore, there is an urgent need to deal with the factors that drive inflation i.e. cost of production, availability of the products (e.g. food, or other goods and services), cost of logistics, cost of storage, availability and cost of power (electricity), insecurity, etc. In the case of food security and availability for example, currently, some farmers cannot go to their farms due to kidnappings, banditry, and other forms of terrorism. And for those farmers that go to the farms they end up most likely paying three or four types of taxes/levies, i.e. Local Government levies, State Government levies, Federal Government levies, and the levies they pay to terrorists/ bandits or kidnappers. We cannot expect those farmers/up-takers to sell the products at a “reasonable” price” without considering their cost of production. In terms of production, power is not available, people have to resort to self—help to generate power at a cost that is rising (e.g. Diesel) to be able to produce goods or provide services. The government needs to be practical and sincere and address the key drivers of production in the economy so that we can turn around the rising cost of living. But I agree that there should be a measure of containment and control of over-pricing which can only be feasible if we deal with the aforementioned issues. For example, tackling insecurity at national and state levels so that farmers can go back to the farms this year’s farming season should be the first step and will be a critical success factor.

     With regards to a proposal to establish a Price control Board, My opinion is that we should get our priorities right as a Country, and the National Assembly should rather focus on key priorities that will immediately result in the following: reduction in the cost of production of goods and services which will ensure supply to address rising demand, tackle insecurity, provide interventions that will support protect our farmers and traders to produce enough food and raw materials, availability of power, reduce cost of doing business, etc. Those should be the focus of the National and State legislature as a matter of national priority and not the creation of an agency of government that will be of no value or consequence in the short to long term.

     The truth is that endemic corruption in our Country is another causative factor of the rising cost of living. I dare say that we currently have enough laws and regulations in Nigeria. But the execution of the laws in terms of enforcement of laws and regulations, surveillance, monitoring, and evaluation, ensuring compliance with regulations and extant laws, taking proactive steps to prevent a breach of laws and regulations, and the lack of consequences of breaking the laws and regulations are the issues. We have solid organizations like the Standard Organizations of Nigeria (SON), NAFDAC, Nigeria Customs and Excise, Consumer Protection Board, etc. organizations that have full legal backing to ensure the delivery of quality goods and services and protection of consumers also in terms of overpricing, etc. What I will expect is that the Executive, Legislative, and Judiciary arms of Governments at the Federal and State levels ensure that organizations are living up to the expectations of their existence in line with the laws setting them up. 

      Accordingly, I strongly recommend that the government, at all arms and tiers, focus on the correct priorities with decisive actions in terms of good governance, and doing the right things. Otherwise, the Price Control Board will become another additional cost of governance with no value on an already over-bloated civil service that most Nigerians are calling for to cut down on the cost of governance. Because there will be a huge cost required to undertake the legislation that will create the Price Control Board, then the cost of activating the Board, appointing Board of Directors, Chief Executive Officer, other executives and staff, creating of offices, etc. which will ultimately be becoming another huge recurrent cost in our annual Federal and State budget. Additionally, the Board may become a political vehicle or a vehicle for corruption whereby there will be collusion to defeat the objective of setting up the Board in the first place. The key to solving this issue of price increase is to open up the value chains and supply chains, break barriers of trade, and ensure the ease of doing business which will in turn, ensure competition and enough supply to surpass demand which will ultimately naturized hoarding and speculation which are the key levers of price increase.

     IMPACTS AND VALUE CREATION AT STATE LEVELS

    More than any other arm or tier of government, the state government has a more direct and tangential role to play in alleviating the lives of their people. Going forward there will be more attention from the people on the state Governors and demand for good governance accountability and performance as will be seen in the coming months because citizens are becoming more aware of their rights and expectations of leaders at all arms and tiers of government. The coming months will be key indicators. 

     Citizens should demand more transparency and good governance at subnational levels to catalyze better service by their respective governors and legislators. We pay too much attention to the Federal Government, such that we forget the immense responsibility placed on the Governors to deliver good governance.

  • Issues on 2024 U.S. presidential election (1)

    Issues on 2024 U.S. presidential election (1)

    In today’s episode, I will reflect on some of the mechanics and dynamics of the political landscape in the United States of America (US, or USA) building up to the 2024 US Presidential elections. In subsequent episodes, I will delve deeper into the analysis of political permutations and combinations with the attendant potential homeland and global impacts.

     IS THE USA GOING THROUGH A PHASE OF POLITICAL METAMORPHOSIS?

    In my opinion, the US is undergoing a phase of political metamorphosis with both the Republican and Democratic political parties undergoing sublime internal ideological restructuring which will ultimately impact the mid to long-term political outlook of the United States of America. Indeed, the interest of the USA remains paramount to both political parties and their flag bearers. But what I call the ‘emerging game-changing personalities ‘, and “consequent tendencies” will determine the homeland and foreign priorities that are emerging in the political landscape of the US.

     The mechanics and dynamics of US politics are surely changing as is evidenced in the emerging political landscape of the past 7 years since the emergence of Donald Trump as the President of the US and especially after the emergence of President Joe Biden in 2021, which stopped Donald Trump from a second term in office, after a tight, bitter and toxic contest. Who would have thought that in modern-day America, the bastion of democracy, freedom, and liberty could have one of the most hotly contested and challenged elections in history leading the insurrection at Capitol Hill, the Legislative Arm of the Government and the cradle of democracy was attacked and desecrated, and the legislators and the then Vice President held hostage by aggrieved citizens who strongly believed it is their candidate, Mr. Donald trump that won the elections.

     For a long time, in the United States, the world did not hear such serious allegations or see evidence of election malpractice in the United States, like; voter suppression in some states, ballot numbers manipulations, voter intimidation, election violence, etc. We saw opposing sides violently fighting on the streets which was reminiscent of politics and elections in “developing nations/democracies” – It was an embarrassing moment for the USA. Indeed the 2021 US presidential elections was a watershed in the political history of the US. Over 3 years after the presidential elections and the emergence of President Joe Biden, the election results were contested in the courts of the United States of America by Mr. Trump and his supporters, while the prosecution of suspects of the insurrection of the Capitol Hill is ongoing as some of them have been convicted while some have been discharged and acquitted.

     CHANGING FACTORS OF CONSIDERATION FOR CHOOSING LEADERS 

    The parameters of candidates’ evaluation for selection of leaders in the US political leaders, especially the President, is changing daily as can be seen in the last two presidential elections. Mr. Donald Trump weathered the moral, and credibility storms to become the 45th President of the USA in 2017.

     Furthermore, it now appears that moral, reputational, age, and legal issues are no longer priority considerations for the American electorate because even the Hunter Biden allegations of illegal dealings with some foreign interests did not cause any significant damage to Joe Biden’s campaign. Interestingly, all the allegations of sexual harassment and financial misdemeanors against Mr. Donald Trump were inconsequential and did not stop Donald Trump from becoming the President of the USA in 2017. It appears from the foregoing, that for the average American, leadership is no longer about idealism or perfection, but about political ideology, capacity, and competence over and beyond integrity. It is not as if integrity does not matter, but that a good/ideal candidate without capacity and competence is likely to lose to a candidate with more capacity and competence than integrity. The downside of this theory is the continuous erosion of the value systems of that society, which is what we saw when President Trump gaslighted the insurrection of Capitol Hill, which will remain a sore part of American history for years to come.

    Read Also: What I fear most about 2024 U.S. presidential poll

     PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S CANDIDACY AND THE DARK HORSE SCENARIO

    The Democrats are struggling with an internal party crisis, with an increasing number of democratic party leaders feeling strongly against the candidacy of President Joe Biden who they feel will not be a strong candidate despite his power of incumbency given his age, seeming fragility, and some underlying health concerns as well as his failing foreign policies that are backfiring which are impacting on the popularity and salability of the Democratic party’s ideals to average Americans especially the undecided and upcoming voters and this could have a long-standing impact on the Democrats especially in sustaining the getting new members and supporters i.e. the youth and the some moderates and democratic socialists (radical) groups within the Democratic party.

     Accordingly, some of Biden’s allies and strategists are worried about the rising popularity and availability of potential alternative candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein who some believe will bring freshness and more competitiveness for the Democratic Party, especially in wooing some aggrieved or “concerned” Republican Party leaders and voters who do not like Trump’s style of politics and leaderships and the attendant consequences. Therefore, even though it’s highly unlikely that President Joe Biden will be upstaged as the Democratic party candidate, it is plausible that a “dark horse” candidate may emerge as the Democratic Party candidate. What is important for the Democratic party is unity of purpose and party cohesion. They don’t want to go into the presidential elections with disgruntled members, albeit to reduce the Party’s competitiveness given that every number should count in this tight and bitter contest. Some members may decide to abstain from voting which as far as am concerned is in itself a referendum. The scenario of voter apathy for the Republican party is also a possibility given how strongly some Republicans feel about Trump and his MAGA movement. Notwithstanding, I am of the opinion that the Democrats stand more chance of losing to their voters’ apathy than the Republicans. The Republicans will come out strongly this time to ensure that they cast their votes having learned the lesson of some of them staying back from voting in 2019.

     FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SWIMMING AGAINST THE TIDE

    Former President Donald Trump has knocked out all the major presidential aspirants and is bulldozing his way to be the most likely Republican Party candidate. Despite his legal tussles which he and his allies consider as a witch hunt and gimmick to stop him from contesting the elections, his popularity within the Republican Party and conservative electorates is soaring. He is also gradually gaining the sympathy of the undecided voters and young Americans who are just reaching the legally allowed voting age. These factors are significant deciding factors in the upcoming elections.

    With the party’s latest triumphs at the IOWA, and New Hampshire Caucuses despite the political optics and legal challenges he is facing, Mr. Trump looks set to give the incumbent President Joe Biden a good fight. This is especially so as Trump is further consolidating his grip on the Republican Party structure in the states across the United States. Indications and information are rife that Trump has concluded plans to upstage the current Chair of the Republican National Committee Chair, Ronna McDaniel who has already started discussing the possibility of stepping down during a private meeting with former President Trump, with both agreeing to delay a decision until after South Carolina’s primary later this month. This will be the final strategic move by Trump to take control of the Republican Party. Essentially, Trump’s grip on a third presidential nomination is tightening, as the MAGA voices are carrying more clout.

    McDaniel’s potential ouster confirms the growing influence of Trump’s MAGA group’s dominance in the GOP affairs on the eve of a new general election season, upstaging the longest-serving Republican Party chair since the American Civil War which happened almost 160 years ago, having served for about 7 consecutive years. The stage is now set for a new RNC with the likes of including North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley, who has ties both to the Republican establishment and Trump.

    The only major contender to Donald Trump in the Primaries is Nikki Haley, a 52-year-old former South Carolina Governor and Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations, and a solid conservative. The bottom line is that former President Donald Trump will emerge as the flag bearer of the Republican Party.

    We will continue with part-2 of the reflections on US Presidential elections in subsequent episodes.

  • Reinvigorating anti-terror war (2)

    Reinvigorating anti-terror war (2)

    “The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.” … Sun Tzu…A Chinese Military General, Strategist, Philosopher and Writer.

    In last week’s edition, I started a discussion titled “Reinvigorating anti-terror war (1)”, wherein I reflected on the worsening state of insecurity in Nigeria. I also promised to continue with Part- 2 in which I will continue to share insight, and also proffer some ways forward.

    KEY DRIVERS OF INSECURITY AND TERRORISM

     As terrorism and other forms of criminality are gaining critical mass in Nigeria worsening the state of insecurity, it is important that we dimension the key drivers of the evils. 

    Some key drivers of insecurity include drug trafficking, the proliferation of arms, porous borders, bad politics, lack of education, unemployment, the widened gap between social strata, socio-economic well-being and corruption, etc.

    The inflow of drugs and illicit arms due to porous borders (land, air, and sea) has been exemplified and evidenced by the daily interception of illicit arms, drugs, and illegal immigrants by security agents, which is a testament to the seriousness of our predicament.

    TERRORISM FINANCING

    The issue of terror financing is crucial to enable terrorism and insecurity which is a deeply rooted issue with international dimensions and ramifications. We are seeing how proactive and forward-thinking Countries are effectively dealing with these issues. Indeed, in Nigeria, there are laws and regulations in place to guard against evil financing of terrorism. But over the past 13 years; lack of political will, poor execution, inefficient and ineffective law enforcement, prosecution, and adjudication (which also has to do with our judiciary) have hampered a turnaround of the situation.

     Some law enforcement agencies like the DSS take years to secure convictions on issues of terrorism due to the nature of our judicial systems, which leaves much to be desired. Therefore, there is a lack of consequences for criminality and terrorism, which would have served as a deterrent. There is an ongoing prosecution by the DSS of an alleged collaborator in terrorism financing. Two days ago, the Executive Chairman of the EFCC, Mr. Ola Olukoyede stated that over N7Billion suspected terrorism finance has been traced to a religious sect in Nigeria, but the EFCC Chairman expressed his concern about how a Court has stopped the Commission from proceeding with the necessary actions for prosecution. Such bottlenecks, deliberate or not, are major inhibitors of the fight against insecurity and terrorism and must be stopped immediately. Moreover, more needs to be done with regard to investigations, arrests, prosecutions, and convictions of the financiers of terrorism and their collaborators. Unless there are convictions and consequences for acts of terrorism, security, and economic sabotage; the war against insecurity will remain ineffective.

     There is a need for more firm and impactful action in the financial services sector to ensure that they are not in any way used as platforms and pipelines for the financing of all elements of insecurity and terrorism. There should be sincere zero tolerance and consequences for aiding and abetting criminality in this Country. It is only when there are consequences that we can win this war.

    RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND OPTIMIZATION

    We need to be honest with ourselves with regard to the capacity of our Armed forces in terms of man and material resources i.e. number of personnel (i.e. boots on the ground), kits, equipment, weaponry, technological capabilities, operational capacities, etc. These are critical success factors for the Armed Forces from time immemorial. Therefore, an armed force that is hamstrung with resources and logistics challenges will not be effective in combating crime, terrorism, and the attendant insecurity.

    While I commend the Inspector General of Police’s (IGP’s) initiative of creating special intervention squads within the meager number of personnel he has to manage the escalation of insecurity challenges, I add my voice to the advocacy for adequate resourcing of our armed forces because they are all in dire need to support that they resource they require. The Service Chiefs of the Armed Forces are struggling with their man and material resources and do not have enough resources to contain and fight internal security. The Forces are seriously undermanned, with a lack of proper kitting and tooling, lack of proper and up-to-date equipment and technologies, and logistics support to enable them to function effectively. This situation must be reversed immediately. The Nigerian Armed Forces currently struggle to fend for themselves, most times they have to procure their kits (uniforms, boots, berets, etc.) from their own pocket money to perform their duties. A situation whereby bandits and terrorists and bandits carry AK49 will loads of other arms and ammunition against the AK45 used by the Nigerian Armed Forces is pathetic.

    The truth is that the personnel of the Armed Forces are over-stretched at the moment and unless the President and the National Assembly take drastic actions, the forces will soon be ineffective and helpless – that’s the reality.

     The gallant armed forces face dangers daily, risking their lives and that of their families. I get goose pimples when I see videos of our gallant armed forces, vigilantes, and other citizens risking their lives as they take on the terrorists who have superior firepower and yet they keep soldiering and struggling day-in and day-out despite the challenges including depleting resources and meager welfare provisions. This should not be the case.

    OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES AND ERROR BOMBINGS

    The overall operational framework can only be properly executed if the requisite man and material resources are provided for a timely and optimal way to deal with the situation. 

    In most cases, the response times to threats or to prevent a threat from becoming an active danger, or to quell actively dangerous situations are very poor due to a lack of adequate resources, the morale of the offers and men of the armed forces, lack of discipline and consequence for misconduct or negligence and wrong postings, i.e. “round pegs in square holes”. The cost of recruitment error, or posting incompetent officers to man positions and locations based on parochial interest is very costly and damaging which leads to disasters like error bombing of innocent citizens and wrong targets which is becoming too frequent and must be stopped forthwith.

    Read Also: Adeleke issues 24-hour ultimatum to warring communities to submit arms

     Another issue is the urgent need for value re-orientation of the Armed Forces. For example, in some cases, the response times to issues are either slow, nonchalant even sometimes dismissive until the damage has occurred and lives and properties are lost. There should be zero tolerance for acts of nonchalance, negligence, and total disregard for imminent dangers.

    WELFARE AND MENTAL HEALTH

    The welfare and well-being of the armed forces are also paramount in keeping the officers physically, mentally, and psychologically fit to continue risking their lives for their Country.

     I completely agree with the Chief of Defense Staff, General Christopher Musa who recently called for the increase in the Salaries and welfare of the Military whereby he revealed that he and other soldiers are paid N1,200 per day on operations. I am sure the same situation goes to the Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies. This leaves much to be desired considering the hazardous and risky situation that the armed forces are operating in, especially those in combat. I urge Mr. President to immediately look into this very important topic so that reasonable provisions will be made for our armed forces wherever they are

     The mental health of officers, especially those in combat or those who return from various operations suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) should be given the desired attention. PTSD is a major mental issue that has adverse consequences on the mental health of the armed forces soldier with dire impacts within the rank and file and the larger civilian society. The rate at which soldiers and policemen turn their guns against their colleagues, spouses, or the larger society is an indication of a clear and present danger that needs to be addressed by providing psychological, counseling, and other emotional and mental support for those who have dedicated their lives to protecting Nigeria.

     CORRUPTION

    Anticorruption Strategy and Value-Reorientation: Beyond mantra to action through realistic, practical, and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management, and execution to rid Nigeria of the cankerworm of corruption. It is so bad that we hear of allegations of government officials, public officers, politicians, traditional rulers, businessmen and women collaborating with bandits, illegal miners, kidnappers, and terrorists. This is the tragedy we face especially when all we hear is that the enablers of terrorism are known, yet we haven’t seen concrete actions taken against them.

     I conclusion, I urge Mr. President on whose table the bucks tops, that with robust strategy, and with decisive and effective execution – Nigeria shall overcome.

  • Reinvigorating anti-terror war (1)

    “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”… Sun Tzu…Chinese Military General, Strategist, Philosopher and Writer;

    The escalation of terrorist activities in the nation’s capital Abuja is an indication of worsening insecurity in Nigeria which must be handled as a matter of Number 1 national priority. This is because the quest to turn around the Country’s economy will remain a mirage unless insecurity is contained and that is the reality. Accordingly, it is on that premise that I decide to m share insights on what I consider root causes, and major inhibitors to tackling insecurity in Nigeria, and also proffer some ways forward. I will share my insights and humble opinions in a serialized reflection, starting with the episode of today as Part 1.  

    In the past 15 years insecurity in Nigeria has been deteriorating, consequent upon which insecurity has consistently gotten worse in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, the Capital of Nigeria, the seat of Power, and the headquarters of all the Armed Forces. The recent onslaught of kidnappers, bandits, and armed robbers in Abuja is what could potentially heighten the sense of urgency and the need at the leadership level to tackle insecurity head-on to avert the worst national disaster. 

     In May 2021, during the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, the residence of the Chief of Staff to the President was burgled and vital valuables were carted away, and since then Nigerians and the general public have been told that security agents have been at the heels of the criminals, and 3 years after we are yet to if they were apprehended and prosecuted. The significance of this example is that the residence of the Chief of Staff within the Presidential Villa, i.e. the residence and offices of the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. If the House of the Chief of Staff of the President within the presidential villa which should be a security fortress and one of the last lines of defense for the President and his family, and yet the perpetrators of such an act were not intercepted before they committed the act or arrested years after the act, then this portends the kind of clear and present danger that insecurity situation in Nigeria.  

    DIMENSIONING THE ISSUES 

    To dimension the issues so that we can appreciate the situation more than we think. Because unless we undertake sincere and professional root-cause analysis and take the right actions Nigeria will further plunge into the abyss of backwardness. 

    Security has been allocated 12% of the 2024 budget, which signifies the importance that President Tinubu’s administration attaches to National security. However, due to the depth of the insecurity and issues of transparency and accountability in the procurement and deployment of security assets over the past 15 years, the huge investments in defense and security assets and resources have not yielded a reasonable tangible return on investment or impacts. It is also instructive to note that the cost of defense and security is very high everywhere in the world. How our leaders prudently and effectively manage our investment in defense and security will determine how Nigeria will fare in the fight against insecurity. It  

    According to the Global Fire Power Index which rates the military power of any Country in the world, Nigeria is currently 4th in Africa, behind Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa respectively. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, standing fourth in terms of military firepower whereby the total population of Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa is less than that of Nigeria. That tells you how bad things have become from 25 years ago when Nigeria was standing ahead in military power in Africa and even globally, we can appreciate how dire the situation is today. 

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    In terms of the number of armed forces, there are currently about 370,000 police officers in the Nigeria Police Force with a ratio of 1 Police Officer to 600 Nigerians. Recently the IGP made a public declaration that the Nigeria Police Force requires an additional 190,000 personnel which in my opinion is not enough. I advocate that the NPF needs not less than 250,000 gallant boots on the ground are needed for the NPF to make any meaningful impact and contain the insecurity situation in the mid to long term not even in the short term because of the timelines for the hiring, training, kitting, and deployment processes.  

    In the case of the Nigerian Army, there are less than 300,000 boots on the ground at a time when we are facing multi-dimensional insecurity issues. While in the past week, there has been a hue and cry with regard to insecurity in Abuja, I would rather we expand our attention and discussions to the entire nation. We need to understand that the rate of kidnapping, banditry, armed robbery, etc. reflects an over-arching national security situation. 

     Moreover, there are less than 30,000 Nigerian Immigration Service officers manning our land, marine, and air borders, with over 1,400 unmanned and illegal land borders. Secure borders are a critical success factor in securing the nation.  There are less than 10,000 Nigerian Security and Civil Defense Corps (NSCDC) officers in the entire Country.

      Meanwhile, ISIL, ISIS, and Boko Haram have been holding sway, and expanding their reach carving out territories for themselves in states in the North West, North East, and North central with a potential incursion into the Southern region of Nigeria. They are already flying their flags in some northern states of Nigeria particularly Zamfara, Borno, and Niger while collecting taxes and royalties from innocent citizens of this Country due to some factors I will enumerate later in this submission. Therefore, the situation is a wakeup call to leaders at all strata in Nigeria under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that when we allow States to continue facing the vagaries of terrorists and economic saboteurs and we think it will not come to us the criminals and terrorists have brought the battle to the seat of power. 

    Bandits and kidnappers have been declared terrorists in Nigeria 

    The insecurity situation in Nigeria has been getting so bad that in January 2022, the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari declared bandits, rapists, kidnappers, and their likes as terrorists, based on the judgment granted by Justice Taiwo Taiwo of Federal High Court, Abuja in November 2021. The judgment was the verdict to a Suit instituted by the Federal Government due to the precarious situation of insecurity in Nigeria. Subsequently, in January 2022, all groups associated with or engaged in kidnapping, rape, and banditry were proscribed in a proscription order which in the Federal Republic of Nigeria Official Gazette dated November 29, 2021, volume 108 declared banditry and kidnapping to be terrorist acts and illegal in any part of Nigeria, and are proscribed pursuant to sections 1 and 2 of the Terrorism (Prevention) Act, 2011.” With regards to participation in the proscribed groups’ activities, the gazette stated that “any person or group of persons participating in any manner whatsoever, in any form of activities involving or concerning the prosecution of the collective intentions, or otherwise, of the groups referred to in paragraph 1 of this notice, will be violating the provisions of the Terrorism (Prevention) Act, 2011 and liable to prosecution.”.

    The above-stated judgment and subsequent gazette were expected to strengthen the fight against insecurity by the federal government, but insecurity has only been getting worse. 

    Furthermore, the bandits, kidnappers, criminal gangs, drug dealers, illegal miners, and terrorists are dominating our socio-economic spaces and have successfully set up an intricate organized criminal enterprise in Nigeria setting up their flags at various locations, imposing taxes and royalties or citizens in impeded, sacking villages communities and towns sometimes to extinction, etc. They are becoming bolder and stronger daily, and they are modifying their strategies, and forming local and international strategic technical and ideological alliances. 

     In addition, they use advanced and use the latest technology to drive their missions and achieve their objectives. 

    The terrorist have infiltrated our armed forces, regulatory and law enforcement agencies, our civil service, traditional and religious institutions, and our corporate world, especially the financial services sector. They have become a pandemic that if not handled properly will soon push Nigeria into doom and oblivion.

     The structure, logistics and other operational support of the terrorists are advanced, functional, and consistently effective. Their tactics though predictable are yet to be effectively countered and out-maneuvered. They are further emboldened daily due to the amount of money that they are able to turn over and launder to procure arms, ammunition, tactical gear and other equipment, food, Medicare, and other logistics support. They are carving out empires within our country unhindered and unperturbed.  

    What remains to be seen is how Mr. President and his team will fight this hydra-headed monster that is about to devour Nigeria. Unless we face these realities honestly, sincerely, and effectively, we will continue to circle these issues and the consequences will be dire. 

     In the next episode, I will continue to dimension the root causes and inhibitors. I will also subsequently share my thoughts on possible ways forward. 

  • Major determinants of the World’s direction in 2024

    Major determinants of the World’s direction in 2024

    Russia–Ukraine Imbroglio Global and sub-regional peace and economics will continue to be impacted by geo-politics. Geo-politics is significantly influenced by the foreign policy direction of the United States of America and its allies and the reactionary foreign policies or initiatives by China, Russia, and other Countries.  

    The Russia-Ukraine impasse (which in my opinion) is avoidable, has lingered on a seeming “stalemate” on paper. But in my opinion, Ukraine has suffered heavily in terms of infrastructure, human capital loss, and a wrecked economy which will probably take Ukraine almost 50 years to recover to become the Country that it used to be in the global economic and socio-political scheme of things before the onset of the war in 2022. The devastating consequence of this war, gets some people like me wondering, “if there could have been better options and approaches to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in the interest of Russians and Ukraine in particular and the entire world in general?” Certainly, the Russia- Ukraine Imbroglio has ravaged the global economy almost resulting in a global recession with devastating impacts on food security, supply chain disruptions, oil supply and pricing, energy supply to Europe, and the resultant effect of the cost of living crisis, etc.  

    In the case of Russia, President Vladimir Putin is not likely to shift ground but rather refine his mid to long-term strategy because so far, his strategy has been working more for him than the US and EU strategy for Ukraine.  

    If the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio continues unabated without a change in the political strategy disposition, it will continue to impact negatively on global and national economies.

    Israel-Palestine Conflict – The War in Gaza

    With the outbreak of the war in Gaza, the US and its allies have re-prioritized and re-focused the allocation and deployment of their man and material resources to seriously support Israel leaving Ukraine to struggle on its knees midway into the war without all the resources that Ukraine has been asking for or the requisite support. I hope that in the interest of global justice, peace, and prosperity; reason and rationale will prevail so that a better win-win strategy and action plan for global peace will be on the table. I am also an advocate of a two-state Solution to the Israel-Palestine logjam.   

    The escalation of issues in Gaza has boosted support for Palestine by Iran Houthi rebels etc. which will only continue to escalate the war and its effect on innocent non-combatants. This asymmetrical war will also have long-term negative impacts on Israel and its allies.

     Unless there is fairness and justice in addressing the Gaza situation, the world will not be insulated from the tangible and intangible dire consequences of this protracted crisis. 

     Sub-regional political impasse and rising insecurity in Africa

    The sub-regional political impasses and insecurity in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region may likely escalate unless the ECOWAS and AU come up with better stratagems for longer-lasting solutions to the multi-dimensional geo-political and insecurity challenges that are bedeviling the entire African continent.  

    UK Elections

    About 3 million overseas Britons are now eligible to vote in the upcoming UK general elections which will take place in the second half of this year. These new electorates will certainly make an impact on the outcome of the upcoming UK general elections that will determine the fate of the incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, especially with the sentiments and interests of the UK electorates on the current education, health, and immigration policies of Mr. Rishi Sunak’s administration. The ongoing latent civil war within the Conservative Party will also be a threat to the Party’s unity of purpose to be formidable going into elections against a more stable Labor Party (albeit they have their own internal wrangling that may be easier to resolve). The aforementioned factors as reflected in the recent outcomes of local elections in 2023 where the Labor Party candidates won are indicators of days to come. I reckon that there will be a review of Homeland (especially Immigration) and Foreign policies if the Labor Party wins the Prime Minister seat or even if the Conservative Party wins due to internal sub-ideological differences within groups in the Conservative Party. Currently, Prime Minister, Mr. Rishi Sunak is not enjoying the best of Polls or support within the Conservative Party. However, it turns out that the outcome of the UK PM elections will reflect global geopolitics and economics, especially in the US and Europe.

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    US Elections

    With former President Donald Trump’s latest triumph at the IOWA Caucuses despite the political optics and legal challenges he is facing, Mr. Trump looks set to give the incumbent President Joe Biden a good fight. If so, we may likely see the likelihood of a re-occurrence of the 1979 scenario whereby an incumbent President, Mr. Jimmy Carter, of the Democratic Party lost to the Republican Party candidate, Mr. Ronald Regan. If that scenario plays out, President Joe Biden may lose to Donald Trump. A dramatic return of Mr. Donald Trump to the White House will certainly lead to a 180-degree turnaround of USA policies, positions, and dispositions especially in areas of foreign policy, immigration, investment and trade, AI, homeland security, etc. There will be a total overhaul of the homeland security and foreign policies direction of the Biden administration. Of course, the aforementioned impacts are expected only if and when Mr. Donald Trump of the Republican Party takes over the presidency of the USA. However, forward-thinking Countries will be keenly watching the US politics and presidential election as it unfolds as they contemplate their strategy beyond 2024.  It is worthy of note Joe Biden is currently facing one of the lowest polls of an incumbent American President in history, especially in the areas of homeland security, immigration, and foreign.

     ECONOMIC GLOOM

    •The current global economy trajectory is not looking good based on geo-politics, and climate change which has impacted food security, infrastructure, human capital, etc. According to the World Bank;

    •The second half of 2024 will be the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years! 

    •Escalating geopolitical tensions could create fresh risks for the world economy. “Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades.” 

    •Cost of borrowing for developing economies—especially those with poor credit ratings—are likely to remain high with global interest rates stuck at four-decade highs in inflation-adjusted terms.

    •Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row—from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. Developing economies are projected to grow just 3.9%, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade.

    BRICS

    The BRICS strategy is certainly working as the BRICS countries include major world powers, such as China and Russia, and countries that are major powers on their continent, such as South Africa and Brazil. The group currently has a combined population of 3.5 billion i.e. 45% of the world’s population. It has a combined economy of over $ 28 trillion which is about 28% of the global economy. BRICS countries will also be producing about 44% of the world’s crude oil.

     The Russia-Ukraine war has further divided the world economically with consolation of the BRICS nations as a counter-measure to the globally dollarized economy which is slowly but steadily posing a threat to the US Dollar and certainly the US economy in the mid to long term – it is just a matter of time.

    CLIMATE CHANGE

    Global warming remains a big challenge to the world. Climate change has been having a devastating impact on our Agriculture. Climate change management should be. A key element of the Agriculture sectoral reform strategy will be risk assessment and mitigation as well as the sustainability modules. Climate change management from the point of view of early warning systems, disaster/crisis mitigation management, and proactive countermeasures and processes that should cover dependencies and counter-dependencies are critical to the existence and sustainability of our entire world going forward. 

    The collective execution of the action plan at the just concluded climate change conference COP 28 which took place in Dubai UAE last month will be a critical success factor

    ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 

    The rapid rate at which Artificial intelligence (AI) is growing and its impact across ecosystems and value chains is so fast that Countries and organizations that do not take the advent of AI seriously will not only be left behind in development but will suffer the devastating consequences of its threats and risks. 

    A POINT TO NOTE

    What should remain etched in the minds of world leaders (including Nigerian), is the fact that based on the aforementioned realities and projections; the earlier we seize the moment to deal with the fundamentals, and/ or the building blocks, the better our chances of keeping up or catching up (if possible) with the rest of the world.

  • President Tinubu’s tenacity of purpose

    President Tinubu’s tenacity of purpose

    “A hero is judged by his or her performance and by the positive impacts achieved” …Professor Ali Mazrui.

    CONSTRUCTIVE DISRUPTION

    On resumption of duties from the yuletide holiday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu started the year with a bang! Demonstrating clearly that, going forward, it will not be business as usual with governance under his watch. Within one week, Mr. President made some profound decisions and also achieved some milestones as follows:

    •He directed a full-blown investigation of the entire Nigeria’s social investment programs of the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) with effect from the immediate past administration. 

    •Based on his approval, nearly $2 billion have been paid by CBN in the last three months, out of nearly $7 billion outstanding foreign exchange liabilities (accumulated by the previous administration), to clear a backlog of trapped FOREX in a bit to stabilize the Naira and boost confidence in the foreign exchange market.

    •Approval of the immediate dissolution of the Board of Directors of Union Bank, Polaris Bank, and Keystone Bank with the appointment of new Boards to protect shareholders and depositors’ funds.

    •As part of his bid to cut down the cost of governance, Mr. President ordered the immediate cutting down by 60%, of the volume of the official entourage on local and international travels – of the President, the Vice President, and other leaders at the federal level while urging the Governors to do the same.

    •Etc.

     The above-mentioned actions and achievements are indicators of how Mr. President will drive governance, going forward. Through these actions, he is also sending a clear warning to members of his cabinet and administration that there will be zero tolerance for non-performance, high-handedness, and corruption. 

    Love him or hate him. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s actions in the last week have demonstrated his tenacity of purpose which has attracted commendations even from some of his political opponents and critics. Kudos Mr. President!

    A WAKE-UP CALL

    The actions of the President in the past week are also a wakeup call to all leaders and officials of this administration that Nigerians will not see and experience the level of impunity and abysmal performance of the previous administration that actually wrecked the economy so badly.

    LEADERS SHOULD BE MEASURED AND DISCIPLINED

    I wish to counsel public officeholders and other government officials that they should be more modest and circumspect in the way they behave in office. The display of affluence including cash (mostly US Dollars), and other irresponsible behaviors by top government officials in the face of brutal socio-economic challenges is an insult to Nigerians and sabotage to President Bola Tinubu’s efforts to turn around the socio-economic situation of the Country. Such delinquent and irresponsible behaviors also show, not only the lack of maturity to hold such public offices, but the conducts also show lack of capacity and readiness to live above board which is a core tenet of good leadership, especially at that level. People who do not share the vision, passion, respect, and empathy that Mr. President has for Nigeria and the seriousness with which he takes his job, should have no business being in his team.

     The lack of empathy and in some cases crassly irresponsible behaviors that even embarrass Mr. President and other Ministers and government officials who are of good standing, leave much to be desired. Such public office holders come across as if they are given office to enjoy jamborees or “largesse”. They are not no measured or mature in their utterances and conducts  as they do not demonstrate high ethical standards and respect for the office they occupy to serve their Country at the highest levels – It is saddening.

    OPTICS OF NIGERIA AT INTERNATIONAL ARENA

    The international community including multilateral agencies and donor agencies will never take us seriously when we go to beg for money, claiming that our Country is facing serious socio-economic challenges, while our leaders arrive at the location of the meetings and events displaying affluence and wealth, going on shopping sprees, etc. That is an anomaly and an anathema that should be stopped if we want to be genuinely respected and taken seriously by serious countries and organizations.

     Furthermore, I urge Mr. President to stop top government officials from attending functions, events, and meetings in which they have no place, relevance, or value to add. In any case, I look forward to the outcome of the performance review of the FEC and the action Mr. President will take on that, which I believe will give more clarity on the direction of Mr. President, because if indeed the performance review is done objectively, which I believe it will be; some of the “roaming” or “galivanting” officials will be shown the way out by Mr. President as he asserted during the inauguration of FEC. The focus should be on adding tangible values and not photo-ops, social media prop-ops, and presentations for managing perceptions.

    THE ROLES OF THE ACCOUNTANT GENERAL AND THE AUDITOR GENERAL 

    The Accountant General of the Federation and the Auditor General of the Federation should be more alive to their responsibilities of providing decision support for Mr. President, the Ministers and CEOs of MDAs. They should be more proactive in prevention rather than being more reactive, by exercising control and ensuring compliance with processes. I urge these two key functionaries who are crucial to the success or failure of any administration, to be more proactive in preventing wastages, blocking leakages, and even preventing crimes and economic sabotage. This is because the cost of remedying damages, and wastages caused by corruption is much more than the cost of prevention. 

    Based on the above mentioned, I advocate that Mr. President should add “cost efficiencies”, “savings”, “prevention of economic sabotage, etc. as a part of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the Accountant General of the Federation and Auditor General of the Federation going forward. The performance matrices should empirically show how much (in Naira, US Dollars and other values) they are able to save for the federation, or the leakages they blocked, processes they improved, level of compliance they ensured, etc. I am sure that Mr. President’s antecedents in Finance and Audit will add value.

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     I advise Mr. President to keenly watch these two roles because they are amongst the gatekeepers of our economy and are crucial to the ongoing economic reform strategy and initiatives. 

    BUDGET AND MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL

    I wish to remind our government functionaries that a Budget is a tactical planning document, and not a license or approval to go on spending sprees. We do not have to spend all the money in our purses or that we plan to borrow, as provisioned in the budget of MDAs.

     Accordingly, I also advocate that “cost efficiencies” and “savings” should be amongst the KPIs of budget performance which should be part of the overall performance management framework and system (in case they are not already embedded in the performance management system.

     In addition, I also recommend that in the interim, Mr. President should place a monthly cap on the expenditures of MDAs with a monthly limit of expenditure threshold beyond which approval must be secured from Mr. President or the FEC which will be subject to justifications and demonstration of values and impacts of the expenditures incurred. This will be an additional control to manage wastages and block leakages. I recommend that this practice should be an intervention given our current serious socio-economic dilemma. When the socioeconomic storm is over, the approval limits could be reverted to the status quo.

     OTHER CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS

    •Restructuring Nigeria and, Value re-orientation

    •Political Will and High Execution Quotient at the top starting with Mr. President to all leaders at all strata of governance.

    •Enforcement of regulations and the respect and compliance to the rule of law are a sine qua non to the progress of Nigeria.

    •Review of the structure and cost of governance for an efficient public sector – Upgrading and streamlining governance framework (across all strata of the Public Sector). For example, the execution of the Oronsaye Report. 

    •Entrenchment of the culture of meritocracy, competence, federal character, and performance.

    •Zero tolerance for procurement malpractices.

    •Stoppage of Budget padding

    •Entrenchment of the culture of excellence and prudence in the public sector by providing quintessential leadership, i.e. starting the reforms from the top and setting examples with zero tolerance for indolence, mediocrity, nepotism, and sycophancy. 

    •Transparency and Accountability in public service, resource allocation and utilization

    •Anticorruption Strategy and Value-Reorientation: Beyond mantra to action through realistic, practical, and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management, and execution.

    •Tight control on revenue-generating MDAs to ensure operational excellence, zero leakages, and high-level accountability are also critical.

    •Regulatory and Law enforcement agencies should also be proactive, result-oriented and impactful

    I hope that Mr. President will sustain this tenacity of purpose which will lead to positive impacts and will further win the support of Nigerians. May Almighty God Continue to Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Some critical issues on Foreign Direct Investment

    Some critical issues on Foreign Direct Investment

    “If people cannot trust their Government to do the job for which it exists – to protect them and promote their welfare – all else is lost” … Barrack Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been consistent that he will continue to use Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) as the key pillars of economic development if his administration. Mr. President has also made FDI a key component of the 2024 budget driver. 

    However, unless key factors are considered and addressed, I worry that the good intentions of Mr. President will not yield the desired outcomes. 

     FDI Trends and Outlook 

     According to Statista:

    •In 2011, a peak of 8.84 billion U.S. dollars was achieved. Moreover, in 2018, a considerable drop was registered, as FDI in the country amounted to 780 million U.S. dollars.

    •Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Nigeria registered a decrease of around 190 million U.S. dollars in 2022, compared to a surplus of 3.31 billion U.S. dollars in the preceding year. 

     New data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that FDI in the country fell by 33 percent in 2022. This is more worrisome due to the fact that the trajectory has been dwindling since 2015, as foreign direct investment (FDI) to Nigeria has plunged to $468.91 million, the lowest in at least nine years, according to official data. This has been having dire consequences on socio-economic growth.

     According to the United Nations

    •UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2023 reveals a widening annual investment deficit that developing countries face as they work to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

    •Africa’s FDI fell by 45% in 2022

    •After a strong rebound in 2021, global FDI fell by 12% in 2022 to $1.3 trillion, due mainly to overlapping global crises – the war in Ukraine, high food and energy prices, and soaring public debt.

    •On a positive note, greenfield investment project announcements were up 15% in 2022, growing in most regions and sectors.   

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    Some points to Note

    •The lack of a purpose-driven foreign exchange management framework has further weakened investors’ confidence over the past 9 to 10 years and is one of the key de-motivations for investors. For example;  

    •Over $ 800 million of foreign airline funds are trapped in Nigeria, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). 

    •In addition, in the past 4 years major investors have left Nigeria due to the aforementioned challenges. Examples of such investors include Shoprite, one of the major oil and gas ‘companies Exxon Mobil is moving to Egypt, and recently GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and lately Procter and Gamble (P&G) announced plans to discontinue operations in Nigeria, 

    •The way forward for Nigeria, is to as a matter of priority improve and upscale our competitiveness in terms of our critical infrastructure i.e., intermodal transportation network; power; logistics and supply chain platforms i.e. the airports and the entire aviation value chain; seaports and the entire maritime value chain, land borders; products value addition and processing.  Therefore, our preparedness domestically is very critical. There should be a holistic approach in collaboration with relevant stakeholders to formulate an overarching strategy to achieve the key objectives and importantly reining in the benefits for Nigeria and consequently for Africa. To improve our trade volumes and increase incomes, we need to improve the state of our not-so-competitive manufacturing and industrial sectors that are struggling under multiple global socio-economic variables, it is a major red flag. Multiple taxation and leakages; and tax policy incoherence are other major barriers to success. 

     CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS 

    I posit that there are 6 critical success factors that should be considered thoroughly in reining in FDIs. I am not saying that they are not currently considered but I am of the view that more attention should be focused on them so that we learn from past experiences. For example,  the recent assertion the by Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development is a confirmation of the concerns and reflags that my humble self and other stakeholders have severally raised during the immediate past dispensation with regards to concession of the Nigeria Airports Concession, and the Air Nigeria imbroglio as cases of instance.

    1.     Integrity and Transparency of The Process

    The opaqueness of running FDIs and PPPs should be removed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There should be transparency and accountability in the entire process and operations of the FDIs/PPPs so as to avoid further complications to Nigeria’s economy in addition to the burgeoning debt issues that are dealing brutal blows to our economy. Because defective FDIs/PPPs could transmute into another form of debt which will further subjugate our Country for vested interests.  Therefore, I expect the wealth of experience of President Bola Tinubu’s Strategy, Finance, Audit, Consulting, business, and track record of successful delivery of major FDIs and PPPS to come into play as he champions the FDIs as he has already been doing and most importantly in ensuring the successes and socio-economic impacts of FDIs and PPPs at national and subnational levels during this administration. 

     A robust stakeholder engagement with a transparent dashboard to show all concerned and indeed Nigerians the progress of the investments/ project on a need-to-know basis.

    2.     Investment, Business and Operational Modelling

    We need to be sure that the FDI/PPP models we are adopting are the correct models for the overall socio-economic interests of Nigeria. For example, from the snippets of what we have heard with regards to Air Nigeria as an example; you will note that issues started from the modeling of how Ethiopian Airlines was given a chunk of stake, the distorted local content value, etc. 

     The model is very important in all economic sectors because the model will determine factors like ownership structure, shareholding, Return on Investment (ROI), socio-economic benefits, etc. We should be thorough in considering and deciding which model to adopt depending on the investment portfolio and the sector, i.e. the model of the transaction, operational model, and model of the entire framework of the project; and in doing so we need to involve all the critical stakeholders to ensure that we think through the options over and above parochial interests. Therefore, going forward there should be new deal-making models to ensure responsible critical national asset management. 

    3.     Legal Framework

    I know that Mr. President has a track record of successful FDIs and PPPs at the subnational level when he was the Governor of Lagos State, but suffice it to say that at the national level, it is a different ball game because we don’t handle our FDIs/PPPs well. About two months ago, it was all over the mainstream media that one Mr. Pramod Mitta, the younger brother of the Billionaire Concessionaire that is behind the Ajaokuta Steel project, Mr. Lakshmi Mittal was able to leverage the legal loophole in the legal framework of the PPP and is able to a critical national asset access $500million to service a debt that he incurred in another country. This is a good example of How the lack of proper planning and efficient legal framework support system for our strategic and operational engagements with our foreign partners is costing us. Therefore, going forward, I advocate for the full involvement of subject matter experts and all relevant government agencies to x-ray the agreements to ensure that all the provisions in the legal framework save all the interests of Nigeria before we proceed, in essence, the outcome of the legal framework should be a win-win for Nigeria and for the investors and ensure that in the long run, Nigerians are not subjugated to foreign investors/ nations with no value to Nigerians. The situation whereby in some cases some MDAs operate in silos should no longer be acceptable in this administration.

     I hope that Mr. President will mandate the “dos” and “don’ts” of the FDIs and PPPs going forward.

    4.     Project management and Execution Quotient

    From a project management perspective, the project management framework and execution quotient of operating the FDIs/PPPs must be high with zero tolerance for laxity or slippages. This is So that the terms and conditions and deliverables of operationalizing the PPP, especially the EPCC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Commissioning) module is delivered timely and qualitatively with full value for money and impacts. This will ensure that people will not come under the guise of investing in our critical infrastructure and end up enslaving us. This will also safeguard our FDI projects and PPPs from becoming white elephant projects, an example is the Ajaokuta project that has been comatose albeit billions, if not trillions of Naira have been lost or wasted in the project to no avail. 

    5.     SECURITY

    The insecurity situation in Nigeria needs to be dealt with as a matter of priority so as to engender more confidence and trust in FDIs and domestic investments. The insecurity issue must be addressed for the productivity of the country in terms of increased crude oil throughput, agriculture, and other non-oil sectors. 

    6.     Corruption 

    Zero tolerance corruption and all forms of economic sabotage, otherwise, the FDI initiatives and the national development strategy will not be successful.

  • Nigeria and Artificial Intelligence Phenomenon

    Nigeria and Artificial Intelligence Phenomenon

    Artificial Intelligence refers to the ability of computers to perform tasks traditionally expected of humans.  The rapid rate at which Artificial intelligence (AI) is growing and its impact across ecosystems and value chains is so fast that Countries and organizations that do not take the advent of AI seriously will not only be left behind in development but will suffer the devastating consequences of its threats and risks. 

     In terms of opportunities and impacts, it is expected that AI will be a key growth and development driver of defense intelligence, business intelligence, business processes re-engineering, cost efficiencies, operational efficiencies, increased productivity, profitability, security, sustainability, resource allocation optimization, value chains optimization, etc.

     The emergence of AI is so important that on 2nd November (about 56days ago), some world leaders met in England, UK, where the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, hosted a two-day inaugural AI Safety Summit with leaders from 28 nations, including the United States and China, in attendance. The leaders agreed to work towards a “shared agreement and responsibility” about AI risks, with plans in place for further meetings to be held in South Korea and France shortly after. The summit has agreed on the importance of mitigating risks posed by rapid advancements in the emerging technology of artificial intelligence. It is worthy of note that one of the key game changers for a global paradigm shift is the emergence of Artificial Intelligence as a precursor to the 4th Industrial Revolution. 

    While the 4th industrial revolution is unraveling, Nigeria is grappling with socio-economic headwinds occasioned majorly by corruption and critical infrastructure deficit. Therefore, the following posers came to my mind as I pondered about the current and future situation of Nigeria at this critical phase of global evolution: 

    •What is Nigeria’s strategic outlook with regard to the production and digital economy,  and based on that;

    •What is the position of AI as a strategic enabler for the security, and socio-economic development of Nigeria, going forward? 

    •Will the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu leverage AI by laying the foundation and setting up the strategic pillars to build on? This is so, especially with the growing number of our youths going into the tech space with high levels of skill sets and potential. 

    •How is Nigeria currently positioned as a Country to leverage technology and key into the AI phenomenon in defense, manufacturing, financial services, transportation, logistics, Oil and Gas, Telco, Health, education, etc. in both Public and private sectors? 

     With the current momentum at which AI is growing, it is imperative for Nigeria to position itself properly for that reality. Therefore, the timing for the baby steps is very important at this point in time before the major steps are taken. Otherwise, AI will just be a mantra in Nigeria while the world continues to move on. If that happens, Nigeria – the African Giant will continue to stumble with disastrous consequences. 

     Ongoing AI Initiatives in Nigeria via NITDA

    I commend ongoing AI research and development initiatives by the Federal Ministry of Communications Innovation and Digital Economy through the Nigeria Information Technology Development Authority (NITDA), which includes the National Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics – in line with the National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy (NDEPS).

     Furthermore, in addition to some other AI initiatives, three months ago; NITDA unveiled the Nigeria Artificial Intelligence Research Scheme, which provides up to N5 million in grants to tech startups and researchers. The initiative is aimed at fostering a vibrant and sustainable AI ecosystem in Nigeria by providing financial support and facilitating knowledge sharing and collaboration among individuals and organizations in the AI industry to enable the building of a sustainable AI ecosystem. I hope that such initiatives will be more robust and sustained in a fair, equitable, and transparent manner across the entire Country with a level playing field and equal opportunities for all so that we can get the best.

    Some challenges and risks Cybersecurity

    Basically, AI algorithms rely heavily on the quality and diversity of the data. Therefore, the growth of AI will further complicate and endanger our Cyberspace unless drastic, sustainable steps are taken by the Government and all concerned. In essence, it is either we fully control AI or AI will take on us in ways and means that could be beyond our control. Cybercriminals and cyber terrorists will leverage and upscale their machinations to further escalate our current multidimensional insecurity situations. Securing AI models and ensuring data privacy will be key to maintaining trust in AI-driven solutions. Therefore, AI should be a key consideration by the stakeholders in Nigeria in trying to contain, anticipate, pre-empt and proactively deal with all the risks e.g. criminality, terrorism, etc. 

     Intellectual Property Protection

    AI presents a threat and risk to the intellectual property of humans in areas of patent, trademark, brand, copyright, etc. Therefore, it is imperative that organizations (public or private) formulate policies that will effectively protect the intellectual properties of creators, and innovators (individuals and entities). Otherwise, there are potential negative outcomes including the de-motivation to create and/ or innovate. The values that are created/ innovated MUST be PROTECTED to assure SUSTAINABILITY, and SUSTAINABILITY IS KEY.

     Strategic imperatives

    Trends and Outlook

    According to Statista:

    •The market size in the Artificial Intelligence market is projected to reach US$241.80bn 

    2023.

    •The market size is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2023-2030) of 17.30%, resulting in a market volume of US$738.80bn by 2030.

     According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) Research: $15.7 trillion is the projected global economic growth that AI will provide by 2030.

    Read Also: Artificial Intelligence: What teachers and students need to know

     The above-mentioned data underscore the importance of AI in national development. I am also of the opinion that one of the critical success factors to achieve the strategic objective of President Bola Tinubu’s administration to make Nigeria a $1Trillion economy in 7 years is the application of AI in Defense, Financial Services, Digital Economy, Manufacturing, Creative sector (which include art, crafts, design, fashion, music, advertising, architecture, performing arts, games, TV, Radio, etc.), the blue economy, etc. The availability of critical infrastructure, especially power with AI will be key to the achievement of this audacious objective of President Tinubu. Hence, it is very important to lay a solid foundation at this point in time, in terms of strategy, legislation, policy formulation, funding, and implementation. The AI phenomenon is a reality every Country and society should prepare to face, albeit Nigeria is far behind even in consolidating the 3rd industrial revolution phase.

     I hope that organizations in the private sector have already factored AI into their ICT and Corporate Strategic Blueprints as of 2021 or at worst from 2024. Otherwise, in the next 3 years Companies will not be able to cope with the speed of changes and the consequences of this strategic mistake will be dire!

     Critical infrastructure:

    The key inhibitor to Nigeria’s socio-economic growth remains infrastructure deficit particularly, Power, Intermodal transportation, etc. For decades the issue of infrastructure deficit has bedeviled Nigeria with negative impacts on the Digital and production economy thereby stunting the growth of the Digital Economy. So, addressing the Power issues as a matter of priority is critical for any meaningful progress.

     Governance: Legislation, Policies and Regulations

    I advocate that the 10th National Assembly and the Executive Arm of Government under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will fast-track the enactment of relevant legislation and policies to enable the entrenchment of AI into our national development strategy, going forward. However, it is also very important that we domesticate some of the policies to suit our national and subnational peculiarities. 

     With the increasing use of AI, there is a need for a comprehensive governance framework for AI strategies and operations. There should be a robust impact assessment, risk assessment, and management framework, established legal concepts, operational controls, and regulatory frameworks. Regulations must be in place to identify risks and issue guidelines and procedures on the usage of AI and the consequences for non-compliance. This should apply to the public and private sectors 

    Education

    The need to inculcate Machine Learning and other key skill sets in our schools’ curricula, especially from the Senior Secondary School level is very important.  So, from an Education/ human capital development perspective, inculcating the Machine Language, OPEN AI, ChatGPT and other AI tools at an early stage of the education of our youth will further increase the skillset opportunities for our youth to compete in the AI ecosystems. Domestically, we need those skillsets encrusted and to be part of our development plan going forward. While the G20 Countries are synergizing and collaborating in looking at the benefits, challenges, and threats of AI while contemplating how to contain the reality of AI from strategic, operational, and policy perspectives, Nigeria needs to consider, as a matter of national priority, the place of AI in our national development strategy. 

     Conclusion

    What should remain etched in the minds of Nigerians, especially leaders, is the fact that AI is a reality; the earlier we seize the moment to deal with the fundamentals and the building blocks, the better our chances of catching up (if possible) with the rest of the world.

  • Youths and corruption – notes for the EFCC chairman

    Youths and corruption – notes for the EFCC chairman

    “There are approximately 130 million Nigerians between the ages of 15-35. This is a vast army of able, energetic and willing people capable of putting this nation on the path to its finest destiny. From our first day in office, our administration will partner with them to make this happen.” …Page 57 of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Manifesto

    The above quote from the Renewed Hope Manifesto will be the thrust of my topic of reflection today. The appointment of Barrister Ola Olukayode as the Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), in October this year, by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, came with a lot of expectations of performance and high impacts under the new Chairman. Accordingly, Nigerians are looking forward to the new administration at the EFCC, hitting the ground running – but not running to nowhere, instead running to somewhere, because there is a dire need for quick action. Nigeria’s economy is in dire straits.

     It is against the background of the above-mentioned expectations, that most Nigerians read and heard with dismay, through the mass media, about a week ago, the statement credited to the EFCC Chairman, said “….. It is worrisome that seven out of ten students today are involved in cybercrimes,”. The EFCC spokesperson later denied that the Chairman made such a statement, and corrected the statement by stating that Mr. Olukoyede “did say that reports and intelligence available to him indicated that, unless this trajectory of youth involvement in internet fraud is addressed and reversed, the future of their leadership of our great nation may be threatened and if it continues in the next 10 years, 7 out 10 of our youths may be getting involved in cybercrimes’’. Indeed, the correction did not paint any better picture, especially because the projection is also not backed up by credible/verifiable data. The statement has left a worrisome negative impression, which in my humble opinion Mr. Olukayode should neutralize with action more than rhetoric.

     Notwithstanding the denial of the statement by the EFCC Chairman, the leadership of the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Students’ engagement, Hon Asefon Sunday, and other Nigerians expressed concern over such a negative remark credited to the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on Nigerian youths.

    Read Also; Our transformation efforts on economy succeeding with NASS cooperation – Tinubu

    Given the fact that the youths of any Country are the bedrock of development, critical national assets, beacons of hope, and the pride of that Country, I was really taken aback by that weighty statement. Even more so by the “correction” which gave a projection of what may happen in the next 10 years if the “trajectory of youth involvement in internet fraud is addressed and reversed”. Therefore, in essence, even if  Mr. Olukoayode’s statement is a projection; it pre-supposes the possibility that 70% of Nigerians could become criminals in the next 10 years. I couldn’t help but retort with “Seriously!?”. Because if so, then we wouldn’t have a country in the next 10 years. 

     I totally agree with the EFCC Chair that there is a need to create a sense of urgency for action, but I believe that it should be done based on empirical data, and evidence while taking into cognizance our current socio-economic realities in terms of the enablers and drivers of corruption as well as the critical success factors for fighting corruption in the short, mid to long term. Indeed the youths are also a reflection of that society.

     To put things in context, Nigeria currently has one of the largest populations in the world and a median age of 18.1 years. About 70% of the population is under 30, and 42% is under the age of 15. The World Bank, in a new report, states that 74% of global growth of the youth population aged 18–23 will be majorly in Nigeria and nine other countries from 2015 to 2035.

    The World Bank also reiterated that such a high number of young people is an opportunity for the continent’s growth – “but only if these new generations are fully empowered to realize their best potential. It is especially important that young people are included in decision-making and given appropriate opportunities for work and to innovate.  Involving young people in politics and society is not merely a question of inclusion, but one that is vital for economic growth, innovation, peace and security.”

    Based on the above-mentioned data and more, I expect that rather than the gloomy picture he projected, the EFCC Chair should have reeled out a “Call to Action” based on a strategy and action plan, in line with the mission statement of the EFCC, i.e. “To eradicate economic and financial crime through prevention, enforcement and coordination”; to ensure that the EFCC delivers its mandate under his leadership, in such a manner that the number of young people that are going into crime is significantly reduced while the good and patriotic youths who are in the majority, should be encouraged and supported, for a better Nigeria. 

     Furthermore, may I refer Mr. Chairman to the EFCC Strategic Plan 2021 to 2025, in which the following strategic objectives should serve as reminders for the EFCC to be proactive and not all the time reactive:

    • Strategic Objective 1; “To increase public engagement in the fight against Economic and Financial Crimes”

    • Strategic Objectives 2; “To improve systems and processes for the prevention of Economic and Financial Crime”

    • Strategic Objective 4; “To improve Law enforcement coordination and collaboration with relevant stakeholders are proved in the EFCC”

     Additionally,  I expect that Mr. Olukayode will have some contributions to make to the Nigerian National Youth Policy, which was activated in 2019, especially in the following areas: partnership building and effective collaboration to fight against corruption; promotive and protective environment for youth development; participation, inclusiveness equitable opportunities for all youths; etc – basically enhancing youth development in the context of sustainable development – such that the youth will be more empowered and further dissuaded from crime and criminality.

     Indeed, the assertion of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his Renewed Hope Manifesto build-up to the 2023 Presidential elections is the total opposite of the EFCC Chairman’s claim. In page  57 of the Renewed Hope Manifesto, Mr President (then a Presidential candidate) stated as follows: ”Youth will not be exploited to do the bidding of the government. Instead, our administration will work with and for the youth, providing them with a platform where they may fulfill their greatest aspirations. We shall do this by embarking on a coherent, structured policy of social, economic, and political empowerment of young people… The quoted excerpt on the Renewed Hope Manifesto encapsulates the truth about the Nigerian youth, recognizing the value that the Nigerian youths bring to the table of our political and socio-economic development today and more so in the future. Mr. President has also been consistent with his respect for the team of good youths of Nigeria and his readiness to work with the youth to build a better Nigeria. I recall an excerpt of his acceptance speech after winning the 2023 Presidential speech, in which he said; ”to the youth of this Country, I hear you loud and clear, together we shall chart the path”.

     It is also worthy of note that President Tinubu went on to appoint a federal Executive Council, with almost half of the Ministers being young, dynamic, and diverse in terms of gender, religion, and geographical spread. Therefore, there is no gainsaying that it is not correct that 70% of Nigerian youths may become criminals in the next 10 years. Granted that there is a small percentage of young people in Nigeria who are engaging in crime and criminality, and the number is indeed increasing, but the tendencies and the character of Nigerian youths do not support them in any way.

    Some key points to note:

    • Some of the negative impacts of such a damning projection coming from the Chairman of Nigerian EFCC is that it could demonize, de-market, the good hard-working, and patriotic Nigerian youths whence the international community of countries takes the assertion of the EFCC Chairman as credible in their considerations of young Nigerians applying to study or work in such Countries – this is counter-productive to our national image and international standing. If the situation of Nigerian youths could be so bad, what then becomes of other Nigerians could be worse.

    • The strategic focus of the EFCC should be to identify the root cause of the rising number of youths going into crime and criminality in Nigeria and what can be done to turn the tide in the short to long term. Otherwise, the statement could seem like the EFCC Chair is already making excuses before even spending 6 months in office. 

    •Based on the foregoing, I urge the EFCC Chairman to encourage and motivate the youth in rhetoric and action, rather than doing the opposite with the doom and gloom message which could further demoralize a lot of youth that are in dire need of inspiration, motivation and appreciation of their patience, perseverance, determination, and patriotism despite the societal challenges which are not created by them. The importance of a shared vision between the EFCC Chair and Mr. President cannot be over-emphasized.