The Nation Newspaper

Category: Baba Yusuf

  • Expectations for new cbn leadership

    Expectations for new cbn leadership

    I am impressed by the choice of Mr. Cardoso as the Governor of CBN and also his deputy, because together, I am of the opinion that they are round pegs in round holes. Together, the new team have combined diverse still sets cumulative vast experiences that will complement each other in delivering their mandate. As a team leader, Mr. Cardoso is bring onboard an excellent academic and professional pedigree of competence and capacity. A track record in Board room of leadership and corporate governance excellence, high level of integriIty which are seriously needed in the person of the Central Governor which have been lacking for a long time in the CBN. I am optimistic that the team will reclaim the integrity and credibility of our Central bank, going forward. I also commend the Senate of the of the National Assembly for for a robust screening process of the Governor and his Deputies with hours of questioning questions spanning different sphere of the economy, leadership, corporate governance, accountability, strategy, respect for institutions, respect for the rule of law, etc.

    We look forward to a positively impacting new administration at the CBN, that will hit the ground running, but not running to nowhere but running to somewhere. This is because is dire need for quick actions. I look forward to seeing the new CBN blueprint soonest. Naira is free falling, the economy is in dire straits.

    Meanwhile, there is currently a lot of leaning on tasking the CBN by stakeholders to focus a lot on the monetary policy part of the CBN mandate. I urge the new CBN and the stakeholders to also have a critical look at the fiscal policy to pari-pasu the monetary part of the mandate for optimum impacts

    While a lot of Nigerians are interested and even most times fixated on/about the number-crunching aspect of where we are I terms of the economics of the foreign exchange stabilization viz-a-viz strength of the Naira, I am of the opinion that we should also consider other critical success factors to have a successful CBN which are corporate governance, integrity, credible data/evidence driven strategy and policy formulation, policy coherence, transparency and accountability, and the synergy between fiscal policy and monetary policy. There is a lot of ongoing conversation about the monetary policy (and rightly so), getting the balance for the Naira, etc. I believe that unless we critically consider the overall national fiscal policy, the balance we are looking for on the monetary side will not happen. That is why I appreciate the decision by President Tinubu setup the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms as part of Mr. President’s strategy to turn around the economy of this Country. Factors like fiscal discipline, cost of governance, catalyzing the productive sector of the economy, etc. It is on the basis of the aforementioned logics that I advise the CBN Governor and his team to consider the overall governance framework and policies, corporate governance, integrity, firm compliance with the provisions of the CBN Act, to be as far less political as possible  and rather be more strategic and technocratic, to be far more sensing, engaging, emotionally intelligence and result-oriented – those were clearly lacking in the immediate past CBN leadership which significantly contributed to woeful performance over the past 10 years. Critical stakeholder engagements and a smart communication strategy are very important at this point in time due to the situation in the Country and the high expectations. Therefore, managing expectations is key.

    As a thoroughbred strategic thinker, banker, administrator, and doer, I expect that the Governor will lean on the skills and competencies of the economists in his team to add value to robust critical thinking and practical and pragmatic strategy and policies formulation and execution for optimum socio-economic impacts. I believe with this balance the CBN will be more productive and impactful.

    Managing expectations

    As I noted that Mr. Cordoso is very much aware (as he stated suring his screening process at the Sentae two days ago, credible data is the foundation of sold strategy that will be result-oriented in any situation especially at this point in time in our Country when the CBN is bedeviled by about 10 years of rot. Therefore the only way for Cardoso to make sense of his appointment is rely on credible data to drive the thinking of the team of the CBN and build the strategy of CBN based on that so that they will achieve the set objectives. If they work on wrong or false data they will be completely off-course and lead Nigeria into the abys of the backwardness that we have been sliding into in the past years. Importantly, the credibility of Mr. Cardoso, his track record of achievements has triggered high expectations and hope that we will see a 180 degrees turnaround from what we have been seeing coming out of the CBN in the past 10 years which leave much to be desired.

    I also note Mr. Cardoso’s response to a distinguished Senator’s question with regards to corporate governance. His response was apt, very re-assuring and commendable. One of the critical failure factors with regards to the CBN and in a wide context with regards to Nigeria is leadership at the top. In the case of the CBN, corporate governance capacity, the capacity to say no to vested interests, the ability to comply with acts and ethics of the CBN acts and the rule of law and the ability to operate at the highest ethical professionalism, standards and performance. To have a Board of the CBN that will be strategic, robust, thought provoking and constructively engaging than transactional, impulsive and meddlesome policies and actions is very important to the CBN in moving Nigeria’s economy forward.

    Read Also: How I will tackle inflation, naira, forex crises, by Cardoso

    My thoughts with regards to exchange rates stabilisation strategy:

    First of all, it is to face reality, be very transparent with regards to what the CBN leadership tell Mr. President and Nigerians. Transparency and accountability will aid to manage expectations because there is no silver bullet to get out of our current economic doldrums. We look forward to see short to long term strategies with practical and pragmatic pathways to get out of the doldrums. For the short term, we talk about the monetary policy, the foreign exchange stability is a function of other factors such as the productivity of the economy, our ability to bring in Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) which we President Tinubu has deftly done in the last 2 weeks from his trip to the G20 in India, his stop-over in UAE and his engagements at the just concluded United National General Assembly Summit at the USA where he has secured Billions of US Dollars investment commitments which we hope will be fast-tracked to bring in US Dollars in the short to mid-term.

    Some critical work need to be done which will not be the focal point of the CBN, for instance the issue of insecurity. The insecurity situation in Nigeria need to be dealt with as a matter of critical priority so as to engender more confidence and trust for FDIs and also the domestic investments and productivity. The insecurity issue must be dealt with  for the productivity of the country in terms of agriculture and other non-oil sectors and also interms or stoping Crude Oil theft. These are all factors that will impact on the stability of the Naira. Unless the criritcal works are done, theories, rhetoric and mantra with regards the stabilization of the Naira will no make any positive impact.

    Ours Macro and micro economic tactics in the short to mid-terms are also critical and facing those realities are important. The solution has to be multi-dimensional and natonal security is one of the critical pillars for success, others are credible data, anti-corruption, a sure-footed strategy that will based on our realities and peculiarities. Fiscal diesoline is also very jey to the stabilization of the Naira. There should be fical disciple at federal and subnational levels of governance and also impact our monetary policy.

    End to Round tripping scam

    Almost all Nigerians of age knows about the canckerworm of roud tripping that became worse in the history of Nigeria during the immediate past CBN leadsership. For any progress to be made to shore up the value of the Naira, the round tripping scam must be stopped at and by the CBN forthwith. And This is not just CBN, I use this opportunity to call on Mr. President to take a drastic action on he stoppage of rund tripping. I also call on Mr. President to esnre to retun all of all the millions of US Dollars that have been fretted away  by and through the CBN and any other institution are returned soonest so that we can have crititcal oimpacts of the value of the Naira in the short to mid terms.

    But for us to be sure footed, we need to allow the new CBN to formulate a new staregy and blueprimnyt to exit out current situation and get us out of the words.

    Curbing rising Inflation Informa; sector value

    Focus on the core mandate of cbn and avoid distractions anchir borrowers, turf wars and infighting, meddling, etc

    The CBN team have their jobs cut out for them. The tasks ahead of them are enormous and the expectations are high. I wish Mr. Cardoso and his team well, and I hope that these are signs of days to come for Nigeria.

  • Revenue crisis and task before FIRS

    Revenue crisis and task before FIRS

    “A hero is judged by his or her performance and by the positive impacts achieved” …Professor Ali Mazrui.

    Dimensioning some of economic the challenges:

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration is inheriting the following situation:

    •Debt stock of over N77 Trillion; Debt to GDP ratio of over 23%; Interest rate of over 20% and rising; Economic growth rate is currently at about 3.1% but projected to contract to about 2.9% next year (according to IMF); 41% unemployment rate; over 133 million (about 65% of the national population) of Nigerians multidimensionally poor, etc.

    •Additionally, according to the President of Africa Development Bank, Mr. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria now spends about 96% of its revenue servicing debt, with the debt-to-revenue ratio rising from 83.2 percent in 2021 to 96.3 percent by 2022. It is also worthy of note that out of the entire Nigeria’s 2023 budget; only 30% of total expenditure will be spent on critical capital projects. The non-debt recurrent expenditure (NDRE) of over N8 trillion is the largest expense in the budget (amounting to about 40%), i.e,16% higher than the 2022 revised budget of N7.11 trillion. This includes overhead cost of N4.99 trillion, which accounts for over 60% of non-debt recurrent expenditure, etc.

    The above-stated statistics amongst other negative indices paint a gory situation. Therefore, urgent and drastic institutional reforms which hitherto could not be done by previous administrations of the past 10 years must be undertaken as a matter of priority, for any meaningful progress to be achieved in this dispensation.  The commendable decisive actions taken so far by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu such as; the setup of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, the appointment of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy of Nigeria, appointment of a new Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the appointment of the new Acting Chairman of the FIRS are part of the steps to institutional reforms in the right direction, that could ensure that we get out of this socio-economic logjam and the best way forward for Nigeria. 

     Dr. Zacchaeus Adedeji’s appointment as the Acting Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS)by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came at a critical time in the history of Nigeria. 

     Upon his appointment, Dr. Adedeji was very succinct, further reiterating what almost all Nigerians know; that we are facing the vagaries of having to use about 96% of national income on payment of a rising debt stock of over the past 10 years culminating in where we are today which largely due to corruption, lack of fiscal discipline and wasteful style of government which leads to our inability to manage our resources and budgets and spending. Therefore, Dr. Adedeji has his job cut out for him to bring in a significant increase in tax collections considering the fact that only about 40% of Nigerians and Nigerian businesses are taxed. I wish you success in your tenure.

     However, in my opinion, Nigeria’s revenue and debt doldrums are beyond increasing tax collections. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO) of Nigeria, Nigeria’s total public debt could rise to 37.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP) this year, nearing the government’s self-imposed 40% limit. If the current debt-to-GDP trajectory continues unchecked the consequences will be dire because the Government is almost at a standstill. Running the Government with 4% of total revenue while consistently in debt is a disaster about to happen.

     So far so much has been said about the dwindling revenue and rising debt profile in Nigeria. I think all Nigerians (leaders and other citizens alike) should start talking about solutions.

     Dr. Adedeji has rolled out an action plan for his administration at FIRS, which includes the following:

     •Key into the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms mandate

    •FIRS to embrace efforts being made to design a tidy fiscal landscape

    •address some of the obstacles impeding the effective operations of the FIRS

    •Innovate and build operations on foolproof technology

    •Block leakages, we need to strengthen internal processes and control mechanisms 

    •To surpass Africa’s average tax-to-GDP ratio of 16.5% and achieve an impressive 18% within three years.

    •To reduce our nation’s reliance on borrowing and ensure financial sustainability,” 

    •To go after tax defaulters in his resolve to aggressively drive compliance. “For those who deviate from their tax obligations, rest assured, we will enforce our responsibilities judiciously,” 

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    •Implement a robust enforcement model that effectively defers tax evaders while maintaining fairness and transparency in the processes of the service.

    •Simplifying Nigeria’s tax system, making it accessible and comprehensible, with a focus on facilitating voluntary tax payments and fostering a sense of civic responsibility.

     The above action plan looks good, though, I reckon that the above action plan could be expanded as the Acting Chairman settles down and things become clearer and more practical to him from inside the FIRS.

     Tax collection will not be enough

    It is worthy of note that the issues of revenue, debt, and resource management are beyond the FIRS. Therefore, to my mind, the issue of revenue collection and management should be expanded beyond tax. This is because when we focus so much on tax, it will appear that in the end the downtrodden citizens of this Country will be made to pay more. The strategy should be all-compassing. Some of my thoughts as follows:

    •Apart from increasing tax collections, the entire fiscal discipline framework must change going forward.

    •Quintessential leadership at the top

    •Cutting/ containing the cost of governance

    •Prudence in government spending at the top, across, and to be cascaded down the structure and system of governance

    •Blockage of leakages and wastages in government

    •Blockage of leakages in the entire government (Federal and State levels). Because the more you get money and throw it into a bottomless purse, you cannot retain anything. Therefore, if we do not take seriously the issues of leakages/ wastages and prudence and Government behavior with regard to governance. 

    •Sincere, objective, result-oriented, and transparent fight against corruption. Because if we do not deal with these fundamental issues, all the efforts of Dr. Adedeji and his likes in this Government will be insignificant.

    •I would also like to see creativity by the revenue-generating government agencies and departments with regard to reigning in more revenue for Nigeria

    •Zero tolerance by Mr. President for non-performance by the regulatory agencies/ agents that are found to be in cahoots with the culprits that allow our revenues or incomes to leak away which is a form of economic sabotage.

    •Zero tolerance to non-performance across all MDAs

    •Total stoppage of budget padding between the Executive arm and the legislative arms of government at federal and sub-national levels, whereby, according to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); in the 2021 budget, a budget padding of about N300 Billion was inserted in the Budget, while a budget padding of about 100 Billion was inserted in the 2022 budget by MDAs.

    •In the case of the Private Sector, for the Government to ensure that those in Government who play with operators in the private sector circumvent the system to help “big businesses”, including the multinationals who do not pay tax or undercut the tax they pay and rein-in our revenue.

    •Zero tolerance to all forms of economic sabotage

    •The regulatory and law enforcement agencies like the EFCC and ICPC should be more result-oriented so that they move from the days of continuous prosecutions without tangible outcomes due to defective investigation, case-building, and prosecution strategy and operations. The fight against corruption should no longer be lip service but actionable and more impactful.

    •Increasing the tax net to go beyond the current 40% of the population, but by applying the principle of equity, fairness, and justice in considering the informal sector which constitutes almost 80% of Nigerians, albeit they are constrained by the current global and national insecurity and socio-economic headwinds. And to also note the over 133 multidimensionally poor Nigerians.

     Expectations

    Dividends of Democracy: People need to see that the Government is actually using the taxes collected and other national and state incomes to add value to the quality of life and properties of citizens, add value to governance, and to and for the progress of and for the growth and development of Nigeria.

     The Communication Strategy of Mr. President and the MDAs in this case the FIRS should be transparent, show clarity, and be concise on what they are doing with revenues collected., That will engender confidence and trust in the citizens which will encourage citizens to see reasons why they should pay taxes

     Deployment of Technology. Dr. Adedeji was on point with regard to leveraging technology to ensure total collection, monitoring, and evaluation. Technology will also capture and block leakages. I do hope that there will be robust integration of the relevant platforms of ALL the agencies of government so that we will be able to harmonize and have a common-user platform that will ensure that we capture all the people who should pay taxes, track their activities, effectively value and tax and collect accordingly. 

     Transparency and Accountability: Here again, transparency is critical, impactful projects and initiatives are critical and constructive engagements with the citizens are key. If the big businesses and corporations pay the appropriate taxes people know that they are paying, and the government is delivering dividends or democracy, it is easier to make individuals, Nano, small, and medium-scale enterprises (NSME) pay taxes.

  • Take outs of 2023 G-20 summit for Nigeria

    Take outs of 2023 G-20 summit for Nigeria

    “We will improve existing industries and sectors. We will be brave and innovative enough to see how new economic vistas powered by today’s technology can create jobs and provide goods and services that will propel us towards greater prosperity and development.” ¯ President Bola Ahmed Tinubu… Renewed Hope Manifesto, 2023 – Action Plan for a Better Nigeria.

    • Building critical momentum

    With the excellent steps taken by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu build-up and during the G20 Summit with positive outcomes and great potential; it is becoming clearer that President Tinubu understands that the socio-economic situations that we are in today in Nigeria require constructive disruption by the top-level leadership of the Country, for us to make any significant progress as a nation. 

     According to the World Bank, the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) profile of Nigeria plunged to almost 60% within 11 years between 2010 to 2021 from about $5.8Billion to about N2.8 Billion, and to make matters worse, Nigeria’s FDI inflows plunged further down to about $840million last year (according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The woeful FDI track record of the last 12 years is a clear indication of our dire need to reverse the trend in order to turn around the socio-economic situation of Nigeria and subsequently put it on a progressive trajectory. So far Mr. President is moving in the right direction.

     Last week I wrote about the expectations from the 2023 G20 Summit which was attended by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Recall that Mr. President and his team left Nigeria on Tuesday, 5th September 2023 for India to attend the G-20 Leaders’ Summit amongst other engagements. Barely 48 hours after his arrival in India (Asia’s 3rd largest economy) President Tinubu secured over $ 14 billion in investment commitments from various Indian Companies across sectors like Solid Minerals, Steel and Mines, Digital Economy, Agriculture, Defense and Security, etc. Furthermore, by the end of the summit, Mr. President had also gotten the attention of top world economies, namely; Germany, (Europe’s largest economy), and South Korea (Asia’s 4th largest economy), who also made investment, trade and economic development pledges. To further buttress the commitment, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz proposed to visit Nigeria in the next month. In addition, President Tinubu also met with Mr. Joe Biden, the President of the United States of America (the biggest economy in the world) on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, where both Presidents had discussions on critical bilateral matters. I reckon that apart from bilateral economic conversations, other strategic discussions with regard to the support of the United States of America in the fight against terrorism and insecurity. I believe that Mr. President will follow through so that we can have good traction and outcomes in that regard.

     The icings on the cake are the “low hanging fruits” move by Mr. President when he stopped over at Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)  where he and this team met with the President of the UAE Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan where Mr. President was able to melt-down the lingering diplomatic and bilateral economic logjam that of the past over one year between the two countries which lead to the stoppage of flights to and from Nigeria by Emirates Airlines, the ban of the issuance of Visas to Nigerians, and other diplomatic soft issues that were allowed to crystallize into hard issues by the immediate past administration with negative impacts. Consequently, the UAE Visa ban on Nigerians will be lifted immediately, and both Etihad and Emirates Airlines will also resume regular flights to Nigeria including the resumption of other bilateral economic engagements. The UAE visit is a big quick win for President Bola Tinubu’s administration. I am of the view that if President Tinubu sustains the current trajectory, amongst other critical socio-economic foundation-laying and pillar settings, we will witness an economic turnaround in the mid-term starting from the first quarter of next year. 

    Read Also: Brazil ’ll invite Russian, Chinese leaders to 2024 G20 Summit, says Lula

     It is worthy of note that President Tinubu reiterated the importance of effective execution of bilateral agreements sealed or which will be sealed. This note of caution Mr. President is very important because the content and execution of bilateral agreements and the materialization of the benefits of the partnerships will lead to the achievement of set visions and objectives. Therefore, the President is telling Nigerians, and his team that he will ensure that bilateral commitments are executed for the betterment of Nigeria. Based on that, the team of Mr. President on the public side and the captains of industry and businessmen and women of Nigeria, all have to do the needful to ensure success. The important point is that Mr. President is forward-thinking and front-facing with a high level of political will and execution quotient. Therefore, he will ensure that he works the talk. We look forward to the days when we don’t just have FDIs coming through foreign investors that come with portfolios and agreements that are lopsided in their favor, but FDIs that will have an overall significant impact on the socio-economic growth and development of our Country.  Mr. President has a skill set that is different from the previous Nigerian Presidents. As an Accountant, Consultant, Businessman, and Political leader, he has the mix of skills to ensure the vision, strategy, numbers, and execution fit for Nigeria and all critical stakeholders. This is part of the overarching strategy of this administration to achieve a quick and sustainable turnaround of the economy especially in the mid to long-term

     In the case of defense and security, it is a very clear item of the agenda of engagement between President Tinubu and President Modi of India. It was an all-encompassing national development conversation. Execution is key and Mr. The President is saying that he will ensure that Nigeria benefits immensely from all the engagements- short to long term.

     Mr. President has indicated his interest in returning to the glory days of a thriving manufacturing industry in Nigeria to boost our production capacity and reduce import dependency. His intent is not just to bring in transactional investment portfolios that will bring the foreign exchange in the short-term but to bring in investments that will boost the economic stay power of Nigeria, and its consequent growth in the mid to long term, which will largely depend on our production value chain across sectors. The glory days of the textile, car assembly, plastic industries, etc. are what Mr. President is trying to bring back with the Power sector as the nexus and driving force to catalyze the return. That is why his discussions with Germany and South Korea with regard to manufacturing, Fintech, Digital economy, etc. are key. 

    It is also worthy of note, that in the past 4 years, major investors have left Nigeria due to the aforementioned challenges. Examples of such investors include Shoprite, one of the major oil and gas companies Exxon Mobil is moving to Egypt, and recently GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced plans to discontinue operations in Nigeria, ending its 51-year existence in the country. It is my view that Mr. President wants to reverse this ugly trend immediately, and his achievement at the G20 will boost investors’ confidence, not just in the case of injecting capital for the short term but to secure “patient” investments for Nigeria for the long term; To build critical infrastructure and catalyze production, value-addition, standardization and competitiveness in the domestic and export markets. Therefore, I am very excited about the developments. 

    In the last week, Mr. President has taken major strides to achieve major milestones. He needs the big numbers to set up a solid foundation and set up strong pillars for the administration’s socio-economic drive and also importantly with regard to security, and that is exactly what he is doing. Germany and South Korea have critical technologies needed to support the fight against insecurity in areas of equipment, intelligence gathering, surveillance, etc. capacities. While we are at it, let us not be fixated on only the US Dollar and Naira conversations. The importance of strategic investments in terms of security (even though the summit is basically an economic summit), and foreign relations are very critical and I dare say that foreign relations is the nexus of any nation’s progress in terms of national security (external and internal), investment and trade, economic diplomacy and our stance in the committee of nations. We saw what happened two days ago in UAE, just a few hours of discussions between President Tinubu and President Mohammed Zayed Bin Nahyan turned around a hitherto diplomatic stalemate that had lingered for over a year. How you are respected and the outcomes you achieve is a factor of how you present yourself and your value proposition and that starts with your leader and that is what President Tinubu did at the 2023 G20 Summit. I commend Mr. President for his achievements.

    Points to note

    The next critical steps are to come back home and put our “house” in order, in terms of our behaviors, dispositions and how we run our public service and security agencies going forward with productive institutional reforms with regard to law and regulation enforcement, and genuine and impactful fight against corruption are critical success factors. Without the aforementioned critical success factors, all the good efforts of Mr. President, his team, and indeed all well-meaning Nigerians will go down the drain. I am of the view that Mr. President will not let all the ongoing huge efforts go to waste.

  • Expectations from 2023 G.20 summit

    Expectations from 2023 G.20 summit

    “With each new day in Africa, a gazelle wakes up knowing he must outrun the fastest lion or perish. At the same time, a lion stirs and stretches, knowing he must outrun the fastest gazelle or starve. It is no different for the human race. Whether you consider yourself a gazelle or a lion, you simply have to run faster than others to survive.” ¯ Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Monarch of Dubai and Prime Minister of United Arab Emirate (UAE)…

    The essence of good vision critical and strategic thinking

    When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his team left Nigeria on Tuesday, 5th September 2023 for India to attend the G-20 Leaders’ Summit amongst other engagements, some people were claiming that Mr. President went too early and had embarked on a wasteful journey, while others claimed that he was dodging the outcome of the Presidential Elections Petition Court judgment. I believe that it is a strategic move, because it turns out as of close of business yesterday, that barely 48hours after his arrival in India, President Tinubu has already secured over $ 14 billion in investment commitment from various Indian Companies across sectors like Solid Minerals, Steel and Mines, Digital Economy, Agriculture, Defense and Security, etc. “Now, that’s what I am talking about!” The feats achieved by Mr. President demonstrate his sure-footedness in building critical momentum by resolutely pursuing his agenda to turn around the economy of Nigeria. As a good strategist, he arrived days ahead of the Summit in order to achieve some key business and economic milestones for Nigeria, even before the Summit began. One could imagine the potential opportunities and deals that Mr. President will close during the Summit! This has shown clearly that Mr. President has a master plan, has already activated the blueprint, and is already marking the milestones for mid to long-term impacts.

     Against what happened in the past, Mr. President’s visit to India and the attendance at the G20 Summit is not just about handshakes and talk shops, it is about closing deals for Nigeria – securing investments and trade commitments and volumes; amongst other national development objectives.  Performance is not only measured by events but ultimately, performance is measured by results and outcomes! Mr. President is already demonstrating performance with this visit and the outcomes achieved so far. These engagements will be catalysts to changing the current negative economic fortunes of Nigeria to the return of injection of Foreign Direct Investments, production, value-chain improvements, exports, and create jobs with positive impacts on our GDP. Strategic partnerships, win-win alliances, and ultimately international economic and financial cooperation will be forged and consolidated by Mr. President and his team at the Summit. Meanwhile, the G20 has not even started! This is a sign of days to come – Moving Nigeria from potential to prosperity.

     One of the key statements that stuck with me is Mr. President talking about “breaking down the barriers of investment” in Nigeria and his commitment to “working the talk”. This is a critical success factor. It is delightful to hear such a statement coming from our President because it will further motivate and encourage not just the Indian investors but investors from all over the world to come/or return to Nigeria; which will bring to us the much-desired FOREX while bolstering the value of our Naira. As a man who has a track record of achievements in public and private sectors – as a political leader, business leader, and Consultant; President Tinubu is in familiar territory and is already upscaling his capacity to deliver bigger and better performance at national and international levels. I believe that the take-outs of the Summit will be impactful. Increase the volume of Nigeria’s trade to match and surpass her volume of imports to target a significant reduction of imports in the mid-to-long term. Beating that curve and changing that balance is a critical success factor 

    Read Also: I ran for President to fix leadership deficit – Tinubu

     Like every other Country around the world with no exception, Nigeria is not insulated from the global security and socio-economic headwinds. Therefore, it is strategic that Mr. President went ahead of the commencement of the Summit as we can see the impacts he is already making.

     In an increasingly interconnecting world, our national security, international trade, and investment strategies should synergize with our foreign policy for quick, sustainable, and maximum impact, going forward.

     How can nigeria key into the opportunities and rein in the benefits? 

    Considering the fact that the G20 is composed of most of the world’s largest economies finance ministries, including both industrialized and developing countries; accounting for around 80% of Gross World (GWP), 75% of international trade, two-thirds of the global population,  and 60% of the world’s land area; it remains a critical platform to signpost, standpoint and leverage the platform for the achievement of our national development objectives.

    The G20 was founded in 1999 in response to several world economic crises.  Since 2008, it has convened at least once a year, with summits involving each member’s head of government or state, finance or foreign minister, and other high-ranking officials; the EU is represented by the European Commission and the European Central Bank, other countries, international organisations and non-governmental organizations are invited to attend the summits, some permanently.

    It is worthy of note that, this year, the G20 India has put forth six agenda priorities for the G20 dialogue in 2023, namely: 

    • Green Development, Climate Finance & LiFE

    • Accelerated, Inclusive & Resilient Growth

    • Accelerating progress on SDGs

    • Technological Transformation & Digital Public Infrastructure

    • Multilateral Institutions for the 21st century

    • Women-led development

    Interestingly, the African Union’s inclusion in G20 may happen, giving it voting rights. From all indications, the G20 nations support this proposal If this happens this will be a game-changer for Nigeria and Africa. African leaders should individually and collectively harness this huge opportunity that will result in benefits that include debt restructuring through the G20’s Common Framework for debt, and a strategy for regulation of global cryptocurrencies. This is part of the main agenda in the 2023 Delhi G20 Summit. I am optimistic that during the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria will be better primed to tap and benefit from such strategic game-changing opportunities.

     Points to note

    • New data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that FDI in the country fell by 33 percent in 2022. This is more worrisome due to the fact that the trajectory has been dwindling since 2015, as foreign direct investment (FDI) to Nigeria has plunged to $468.91 million, the lowest in at least nine years, according to official data. This has been having dire consequences on socio-economic growth.

    • The lack of a purpose-driven foreign exchange management framework has weakened investors’ confidence over the past 9 to 10 years and is one of the key de-motivations for investors. For example;  

    • Over $500million of foreign airline funds are trapped in Nigeria, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). 

    • In addition, in the past 4 years major investors have left Nigeria due to the aforementioned challenges. Examples of such investors include Shoprite, one of the major oil and gas ‘companies Exxon Mobil is moving to Egypt, and recently GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced plans to discontinue operations in Nigeria, ending its 51-year existence in the country 

    • Nigeria is in a critical situation that requires urgent actions to be taken at the highest level of decision-making in the Country. Attendance of the 2023 G20 Summit by President Tinubu and the action plan he rolled out is a step in the right direction.

    • The way forward for Nigeria, is to as a matter of priority improve and upscale our competitiveness in terms of our critical infrastructure i.e., intermodal transportation network; power; logistics and supply chain platforms i.e. the airports and the entire aviation value chain; seaports and the entire maritime value chain, land borders; products value addition and processing.  Therefore, our preparedness domestically is very critical. There should be a holistic approach in collaboration with relevant stakeholders to formulate an overarching strategy to achieve the key objectives and importantly reining in the benefits for Nigeria and consequently for Africa. To improve our trade volumes and increase incomes, we need to improve the state of our not-so-competitive manufacturing and industrial sectors that are struggling under multiple global socio-economic variables, it is a major red flag. Multiple taxation and leakages; and tax policy incoherence are other major barriers to success. 

    Some other critical success 

    • Upscaling our logistics and supply chain capabilities by improving and  upscaling our airports, seaports, intermodal transport  network, and land borders infrastructure and management capacities

    • Modernising customs and border processes: Streamlining intra-Africa crossings 

    • Technology

    • Improvement of our laws through Legislation, Policy, and Regulation reviews

    • Standards and Quality Assurance – Monitoring, Compliance, and Enforcement

    • Building in-country Trade Facilitation capacity

    • Sensitisation strategy for the critical stakeholder

    • Harmonisation of standards and regulations

     Based on the aforementioned, Nigeria’s over-arching national strategy needs to change, especially with regard to Finance, Economy, Foreign Policy, Defense, Trade and Investment, etc. with our Foreign policy as the nexus. Therefore, the economic diplomacy trip by Mr. President is a welcome development. We look forward to deepening the relationships and actioning win-win commitments for the betterment of Nigeria.

  • Notes for ministers

    Notes for ministers

    The opening remarks of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the inaugural meeting of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) four days ago, gave clarity as to the quality of FEC deliberations and the impacts Nigerians should expect. Mr. President’s 8-point agenda to achieve his overarching vision for “economic growth, prosperity for all, and ending poverty” in the next 3 years is quite significant; especially considering the current security and socio-economic challenges in the country. With the inauguration of the FEC, the clock is already ticking as Nigerians eagerly (if not desperately) look forward to getting out of the current multi-dimensional national doldrums. As Nigerians from various strata are adding their voices in trying to set the tone for the administration, especially in this case of the Honorable Ministers; I wish to respectfully speak to the Honorable Ministers follows:

     Mr. President has made it clear that he intends to drive a performance-driven FEC with a performance management and consequence management framework and processes. This is a welcome development. What remains to be seen is the performance of the FEC, individually and collectively in living up to the expectation of Mr. President and Nigerians.

     I commend the initials steps already taken in the last 48 hours since you resumed duties, with some bold and impactful policy statements and actions taken by some Ministers, particularly, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Minister of Finance, and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Minister of Works, and the Minister of Federal Capital Territory. These Ministers have started building critical momentums. I am also aware of the top-gear action planning by other Ministers. I hope the critical momentums that are building up will be maintained for sustainable and productive outcomes 

    Read Also: ECOWAS denies approving transition proposal for Niger

     However, it is worthy of note that while momentum is good; a thorough sectoral situation analysis is a critical success factor for the achievement of sustainable success. This is especially so in the case of those of you who are holding portfolios that are not your areas of specialization. While I do not doubt the capacity of all of you to effectively head the Ministries that have been assigned to you, I advise that a thorough situation analysis should guide your strategy and blueprint formulation, while you are making the quick win moves.

     In addition, you should also be cautious and listen to the “right voices” of critical industry stakeholders in the various sectors. Each sector has professionals of proven integrity and track records of achievements from the public and private sectors; and as you are aware, they will surely be key contributors to your success. Be that as it may, let me remind you to be wary of what I call the “entrapment of the conspiracy of corruption”. The conspirators are a most likely combination of a few unscrupulous civil servants and some industry stakeholders (from the private sector) who deliberately/ inadvertently connive to mislead political appointees through misinformation and/or sycophancy for their parochial interests. Indeed, as we have seen time and again, whenever political officeholders get into trouble, they mostly face those troubles alone. Ironically, most of the so-called advisors or supporters who basically “escort” the political office-holders to their exits/downfall (as the case may be) will be the same people who will criticize them/ blame them for failure/ corruption after they must have benefitted from whatever schemes they have plotted. Interestingly, they do not waste time rushing to the next Minister/Political office-holder to set up shop for the next scheme. I am sure that you are all senior and experienced enough to detect such industry/ sector “booby traps” and avoid them.

     Furthermore, I advise that you use credible premises, data, and information to craft your strategies and formulate your policies so that you can achieve set objectives. Your communication strategy should also be clear, engaging, empathetic, professional, far-reaching, and importantly sensitive to the situation that we, as Nigerians, have found ourselves. Gone should be the days when Ministers will speak outright fallacies to Nigerians with no regard for the consequences of such actions. I commend the inaugural speech of the Minister of Information and National Orientation, wherein he stated clearly and on record, that he will not lie to Nigerians. I hope that all Ministers are on the same page on this assertion. Because Nigerians are watching and taking notes.  The political consciousness of Nigerians is at its highest in history, with citizens in dire need and demanding good governance more than ever before. Mr. President has unambiguously demonstrated consciousness of this fact in his actions thus far, I hope this consciousness has already permeated into the entire FEC.

     You are all tested and accomplished men and women in your various areas of endeavor. You all have demonstrable capacities and competencies. This is yet another opportunity to serve your Country with integrity and make positiveimpact. I am also of the view that all of you have the good intention to perform excellently based on your antecedents, premised on which you are today members of the FEC. Nevertheless, power sometimes makes us forget our promises and/or mandates; not because we don’t know, but because of the allure and trappings of power. I, therefore, advise that you have periods of introspection so as to guide your steps, as the Hausa proverb that literally translates; “Reflection of the past, aids to guide movement into the future”. The mistakes of the past FECs can also guide the current FEC to upscale performance. This is because, for the past 15 years, Nigerians have been lamenting that the previous administrations were better than the ones they are experiencing, at every point in time; sadly, so. It is the fervent prayer and expectation of Nigerians that the vicious circle will be broken by this administration. This can only be achieved by taking lessons from the mistakes, oversights, and/or impunity of the past administrations and ensuring that the mistakes are not repeated or the worst decisions are taken – This is a critical success factor. 

     Accordingly, it is also important to admit to mistakes when they are made and make decisions to address them. So far Mr. President has demonstrated this virtue, by retracing some steps and also reversing some critical decisions he took since he resumed office as Mr. President. While some people see such actions as signs of weakness, I see his actions as a reflection of a sensing leader who is not afraid to take critical steps/actions and also indicating he is not ego-driven or arrogant to quickly take corrective actions if and when it is necessary. It also shows that he is a President who listens and is sensitive to the feelings of his people. I recall that Mr. President reiterated this point during the maiden EFC meeting last week. I commend Mr. President for that thinking and disposition. His action reflects the high level of situational awareness and the readiness to learn and take corrections while being bold and decisive. We hope that this leadership style will be sustained by Mr. President and emulated by the members of the FEC.

    Other critical next steps/critical success factors

     Quick wins (starting immediately and to be achieved within the next 3 months)

    •Political Will and high execution quotient at the top starting with Mr. President to all leaders at all strata of governance

    •Immediate tangible downward review of expenditures by topline leaders (the cost of running their various offices and institutions – Leadership by example

    •Cost reduction/ containment/ blockage of operational and transactional leakages

    •Reduction of operating costs of Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs).

    •Streamline Capital expenditure through prudent costing, while balancing cost with quality

    •Enforcement of laws and regulations 

    Mid to long-term (starting from the next 3 months)

    •Elimination of Budget Padding by the Executive and Legislature

    •Elimination of procurement malpractices

    •Streamline MDA structures and functions to eliminate duplicity of functions and costs

    •Ensure collection of all revenues that should accrue to the Government

    •Zero tolerance to sharp practices of non-remittance of revenues by revenue-generating entities of government and also by government private partners, i.e. Concessionaires and other PPP partners 

    •For revenue-generating MDAs to be creative by generating diverse revenue pipelines

    •Ensure collection of all taxes due from the big businesses (local and foreign). 

    •Zero tolerance to all forms of economic sabotage

    •Transparency and Accountability in public service, resource allocation and utilization

    •Anticorruption Strategy and value reorientation: Beyond mantra to action through realistic, practical, and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management, and execution.

    •Cultural change and value re-orientation

    •Transformation of the Civil Service to be in tune with global best practices 

    •Performance management and consequence management (reward and punishment in line with public service rules).

    •Entrenchment of the culture of meritocracy, competence, federal character, and performance.

     As Nigerians, we will continue to commend good governance and also make constructive criticisms if and where necessary. I expect that you all take onboard such contributions in good faith, with a sense of service and understanding of the dire situation we are currently in as a nation – so that they add value to your performance and consequently this administration. This is so due to recognizing the fact that, nation building is a collective responsibility of all citizens.

     I wish you all well. May Almighty God Continue to Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Crucial points to note on the N180 billion palliatives

    Crucial points to note on the N180 billion palliatives

    • Profile of the palliatives so far

    Last week, Thursday, 17th August 2023, the federal government announced that it would give each state of the federation a sum of N5 Billion palliatives to cushion the impact of the removal of the payment of subsidy on fuel – The total cost implication amounts to N180 Billion.

     The decision to share the palliatives is a consequence of the vagaries of the escalation of cost of living crisis occasioned by global and national economic downturn and more so due to the removal of fuel subsidy by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is a key policy direction of the new administration aimed at enabling the socio-economic turnaround of the Country. 

     One of the provisions of the N5b funding is that, the state governors are to procure 100,000 bags of rice, 40,000 bags of maize, and fertilizers to share with the most vulnerable citizens in the state.

    The above subventions are additions to other initiatives that were rolled out by President Tinubu during his national broadcast on 31st July 2023.

    While the above initiatives are laudable and reflect the readiness of the administration of President Tinubu to mitigate the impact of the subsidy removal and other economic downturns, it is important that decision-makers, leaders at various strata, and critical stakeholders note the following critical points:

    The need for transprency and accountabity

    With regards to the 100,000 bags of Rice and 40,00 bags of Beans: A quick calculation shows that: on average a bag of Rice is about 50 kg, while a bag of Beans is about 40 kg. Therefore, 100,000 bags of Rice could amount to 5 million Kg of Rice per State. By applying a rule of thumb and saying the State Government could share 10 kg per homestead, that means that about 500,000 vulnerable citizens will get the 100,000 bags of rice. The implication of this hypothesis is that, as an example, in the case of the poorest State in Nigeria according to the NBS 2023 multi-dimensionally poor index, i.e. Sokoto State with an estimated over 4.3million multi-dimensionally poor citizens, only about 20%% of the multi-dimensionally poor of the poorest State in Nigeria will get a share of the bag of rice and/or beans. Another poser is; if the 100,000 and 40,000 bags of rice will be a one-off exercise. If so, what are the other interventions that will be provided for the over 133 multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians for example in the next 6 months? Do state governments have robust plans and pathways to exit the vagaries of the removal of the fuel subsidy? These are bearing in mind that the IMF has told us that the economic growth rate of Nigeria for 2023 is 3.9%, while the growth rate may contract to 2.9% by next year. Please note that this projection did not cater to the current impact of the removal of the subsidy. With the further socio-economic headwinds, we are facing, it is important that the interventions are more far-reaching and sustainable as far as the 133 million multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians are concerned – given that the concept is that no vulnerable Nigerian should be left behind. To this extent, the methodology and integrity of the social registers, vis-à-vis, what NBS has already done, will be amongst the critical success factors. The fact that if we juxtapose the sharing formula of the bags of rice and beans with the 133 multidimensionally poor index, the expected impact will be on less than 1% of the poorest people in Nigeria is a very worrisome situation. I worry that we may end up with a palliative-driven economy while running out of a subsidy-driven economy. 

    Read Also: FG vows to end hyper inflation and GDP per capita less than 30%

    I am aware that the Governors have their own respective plans, but due to the aforementioned statistics and realities, the Governors are obviously struggling to roll out and action them. The actions of some of them are very laudable, for example, the Executive Governors of Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, and Lagos States. 

    Another important point to note is the possibility that the palliatives may not reach the multidimensionally poor if the palliatives are hijacked to settle politicians and their loyalists (this applies to all political parties). Let us not forget what happened during the COVID-19 period with regard to the palliatives that were stockpiled and hidden and the gory outcomes that we all saw on local and international media of poor people breaking into those warehouses. May we not witness such occurrences, even though it happened already in Adamawa State some weeks ago. That is an indication of potential outcomes if things are not handled properly.

    Even though States have their peculiarities, it will be good if the Nigeria Governors Forum comes up with an overarching strategy based on which they can generate workable and impactful templates that will apply to all. For example, I appreciate the methodology adopted by the Governor of Yobe State, as follows: assessment of intervention, identifying vulnerable persons, identifying the areas of intervention, and how to ensure that it reaches those people. It will be highly commendable if the aforementioned parameters are followed transparently, and equitably with proper accountability frameworks and systems, albeit the total package is still meager because it appears that the bags of rice and beans may only last households for two weeks and then we have 6 months of headwinds to contend with to get out if the first phase of the doldrums because the economic indices will get worse before they start getting better, i.e. the issue of the rising price of PMS due to market forces will remain on the table, the price of US Dollar will increase due to traditional global impacts as we inch towards to end of the year, and other economic variable that are still in the negative until the interventions and solutions kick-in. 

    Value creation at state levels

    The genuineness of the Governors and Local Government Chairpersons and their legislators; and commonality of purpose across party lines will determine how far they will go in making the needed impacts of sentence and bettering the lot of Nigerians. There should be government-to-government collaborations at subnational levels for socio-economic stability and sustainability of states.

     The Federal Government cannot do it alone, state governors must think out of the box, because all the states in Nigeria are so blessed with man and material resources such that no state has any business being poor.

     Citizens should demand more transparency and good governance at subnational levels to catalyze better service by their respective governors and legislators. We pay too much attention to the Federal Government, such that we forget the immense responsibility placed on the Governors to deliver good governance. In the past 24 years of return to democracy, some Governors stood out as a model of progress and development. We should demand more so that more Governors  sill perform. So far, I see that some Governors have been demonstrating capacity, empathy, and patriotism. We implore them to do more and for others to step up.

     Fight against insecurity and corruption and the importance of foreign policy

    It is important that the Governments (at the Federal and State level) include security as part of their short—, mid-, and long-term strategy. Apart from national kinetic insecurity, the issue of food insecurity is escalating due to global warming, geopolitics (war between Ukraine and Russia, Sudan meltdown, the rising coups in West Africa, and the potential military intervention in Niger, etc.), is another key rising concern. 

     For instance, the fertilizers that will be shared will be worthy of note that the fertilizers will be useless if the farmers cannot go to the farms to produce due to insecurity. Farmers need to return to their farms as soon as possible to produce more food and raw materials for the economy to mitigate the looming food shortage with dire consequences.

     In my opinion, we should not lose sight of the significance of national security, the fight against corruption, and our international relations strategy (security, socio-economic, trade, investment, etc.) in which foreign policy (Nigeria-First) should be the nexus – going forward.

    The role of organised labour and civil societies

    I wish to call on organized labor and civil societies as levers that should control government and governance, to step up and re-strategize. As times are changing so should you change. Your engagements and agitation strategies should also change with the nuances of the government you are engaging in and our current realities. Importantly please do not forget that the multi-dimensionally poor citizens are also in the informal sector which, according to the IMF, constitutes about 89% of our populace. 

     Reduction of cost of governance

    Leadership by Example: Citizens eagerly await the immediate tangible downward review of expenditures by topline leaders (Executive and Legislature) on the cost of running their various offices and institutions.

     In conclusion, how the Federal Government and importantly State and Local Governments think, plan, and implement with a holistic view and pragmatic approach will determine the outcomes, positive or negative. I pray that our leaders at all strata will think, plan, and execute with fear of God, empathy, and a high level of political will for the sentence and betterment of our people. 

  • Critical points in Niger junta crisis

    Critical points in Niger junta crisis

    On Tuesday, 15th August, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as Chairman of the ECOWAS, received the Special Envoy of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, (who doubles as the Chairman of ECCAS) and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Gabon, Mr. Hermann Immongault, at the State House in Abuja. It was a solidarity visit on behalf of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) with regard to the ongoing efforts to restore democracy in the Republic of Niger. I was excited to hear President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s response which partly read, ”We are working not to compound the problem. We have well-meaning people who have intervened. “I understand the fear of our people on any form of military action. We are working to keep the sanctions in place and we are following them to the letter.”

    Accordingly, I wish to draw the attention to Mr. President, and other ECOWAS member Countries and citizens as follows:

    I hope that the sanctions that are being meted out on the Nigerien Junta, are such that they will impact only the junta, and will not in any way impact negatively on the innocent citizens of Niger. Because it appears some of the sanctions may have adverse consequences on the citizens of Niger who are not supposed to bear the brunt of the sanctions in any way. If the objective is to protect the welfare and well-being of the citizens of Niger, who have their global and national rights in line with their constitution, and in line with provisions of the ECOWAS Revised Treaty, I implore ECOWAS to tread with caution with regard to the sanctions. If the sanctions will have an adverse impact on the citizenry of Niger, then the objective of the sanctions will be defeated. Pain and misery should not be escalated to the already terrible situation that the citizen is facing. Therefore, we need to be very strategic in applying the sanctions. In addition, within the revised Treaty of ECOWAS, I am yet to see provisions for military interventions within the ambit of ECOWAS. If so, what modalities are we talking about to ensure that we do not set a bad precedent that may haunt the West African sub-region.

    Read Also: Coup: ECOWAS force to invade Niger, say Defence Chiefs

    Another point to note is the impact of the reactions by the junta to the sanctions that are being meted out and the potential military action by ECOWAS on the Junta. It is obvious that the Junta had a strategy before it made the move. Therefore, it is essential that we consider their actions and inactions in formulating the way forward to restore democracy and relationships in the overall interest of ECOWAS. The consequence of military action will be dire not just to the people of the Republic of Niger, but to Nigeria as the country with the largest land border with Niger in West Africa (over 1,600 Kilometers), and subsequently to the entire West African subregion. Innocent people will die and their properties will be lost/ destroyed. The lives of generations of families will be truncated. Over 500 years of relationships between Nigeriens and Nigerians will be soiled and dangerously affected with long-term negative socio-economic consequences that we should not contemplate. I am raising the cautions without prejudice to the action plan of ECOWAS. Because it is highly unlikely that the junta will be taken out without inflicting a high level of damage on the meager infrastructure of Niger and importantly the citizens of Niger, the majority of whom have been expressing support to the junta. The life of President Mohammed Bazoum and his family should also be considered, given that the junta has threatened to kill him if any attempt is made to take them down.

    Instances:

    As a reaction to the sanctions and the posturing for military actions and saber-rattling against the Nigerien junta, the junta closed their airspace. Nigeria is part of ECOWAS and our President is the current Chairman of ECOWAS, and it appears yet again like most times, Nigeria takes leading roles to provide interventions but ironically, we end up bearing the highest brunt rather than benefits of such interventions/ leadership roles. 

    By geographical positioning, Almighty God has positioned Nigeria in a strategic location such that our travel time from Nigeria to Europe, the USA, and to the Middle East is very strategic, efficient, and cost-effective. With the closure of the Nigerien border, the time and cost of travel from/Nigeria to/from Europe and also the USA by air (where the flights are not direct flights) will significantly escalate with a ripple effect on the cost of travel, cost of doing business, and cost of living. This will also have adverse consequences on the Nigerian aviation sector and all the critical sectors the aviation sector enables/supports. Because if you look at the mapping and the trajectory of travel by air, the closure of the Nigerien Airspace is already impacting Nigerian travel time and economics. Interestingly, the closure of the Nigerien airspace has rather conferred advantage to the likes of Togo and Ghana which are competing with Nigeria in the regional and continental aviation sector. This is an important point to note by all critical stakeholders. 

    In addition, with the closure of the Nigeria/ Nigerian land border, Nigeria and Niger citizens are already significantly impacted socially and economically. Niger has the longest land border with Niger in ECOWAS. The Niger–Nigeria border is 1,608 kilometers (999 miles) in length and runs from the tripoint with Benin in the west to the tripoint with Chad in the east (source Wikipedia). There are seven northern States of Nigeria bordering Niger, with a total estimated population of over 55million people (source Wikipedia and NBS). There are 6 southern States of the Republic of Niger including the capital where the Junta is situated, Niamey sharing a border with Nigeria with an estimated population of over 13 million people. It is worthy of note that the immediate potential impact of military action will affect the region covering over 1,600 Kilometers with a combined population of about 77 million people, and subsequently spread throughout Nigeria. The consequences will be cataclysmic on Nigeria and the sub region

     Four days ago, The Arewa Economic Forum (AEF) cried out over a weekly N13 billion loss of agricultural produce at the Nigeria-Niger border closure. This is apart from the huge number of job losses in the northern part of Nigeria where the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics have stated in the last quarter of last year, that about 60% of the about 133million, multi dimensionally poor Nigerians are living and are already struggling to survive. Interestingly, amongst all the ECOWAS nations, it is only Nigeria that is suffering these huge socio-economic losses and impacts in an already critical socio-economic situation that Mr. The President is battling to come to terms with.

    It is also worthy of note that Niger is the buffer between Nigeria and the troubled Republic of Libya which has since become a hotbed and breeding ground of hundreds of terrorist cells and groups (thousands in number) that have since been filtering into Nigeria and the Sahel region, further exacerbating our dire national security situation. How we manage the Niger crisis could further make or better our national security in Nigeria. A few days ago, a military helicopter was gunned down by suspected terrorists and the next day about 23 officers and soldiers were ambushed by terrorists. With the largest and very porous land border with Niger, this is another poser for our President and his strategists to ponder while formulating the next moves.

    Recommendations on the way forward – “Nigeria first”

    In closing, I humbly advise that Nigeria thread with caution, because Nigeria provides the majority of the funding of ECOWAS, and if peradventure a military action is to be taken to take out the junta in Niger, Nigeria will certainly carry the chunk of the cost, and bear almost 80% of the negative impact based on the aforementioned points and more.

    Therefore, I urge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to consider holistically, our entire foreign policy strategy going forward. I agree with the big brother role we play, but most times we tend to over play that role with zero value except mostly negative consequences on Nigeria. We have seen examples in our interventions in South Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, etc. In my opinion, going forward the Nigerian foreign policy should be about ”Nigeria First. In this instance we have a “conjoined twins” neighborly relationship with Nigeria. Therefore, we need to be strategic while considering the overall ECOWAS strategy and action plan, lest we shoot ourselves in the foot. The best approach should be Nigeria’s interest first before any other interest(s). We can still play the big brother role, but more strategically with tangible and intangible benefits. 

    I look forward to a fast track return to democracy in Niger through robust and forward-thinking diplomatic engagements. I pray as I believe that there is a diplomatic answer to the Niger imbroglio and not military action, because Military action will not be in the best interest of Nigeria and the sub region.

  • Aviation sector needs presidential intervention

    Aviation sector needs presidential intervention

    “With each new day in Africa, a gazelle wakes up knowing he must outrun the fastest lion or perish. At the same time, a lion stirs and stretches, knowing he must outrun the fastest gazelle or starve. It is no different for the human race. Whether you consider yourself a gazelle or a lion, you simply have to run faster than others to survive.” ¯ Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Monarch of Dubai and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)…

    Mr. President, I wish to commend you for setting up the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, which clearly indicates the importance you place on our fiscal policy and tax systems for better revenue and resources management, going forward. I am hopeful that you will continue to add value to the socio-economic development of Nigeria. Sir, it is on this platform that I stand yet again to respectfully and humbly draw your attention to a very critical area that requires such high-level presidential attention – the aviation sector. This request is coming at the heels of the hue and cry on the events of the past 6 to 7 years in the aviation sector which left in its wake crises and controversies, which unless addressed by Mr. President, the sector will further plunge into more crisis. 

     Aviation is at the intersection of national and global economy, security, social development, and foreign policy. This became more noticeable during the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020; where the Aviation value chain was arguably the strongest link and enabler in the global and national fight against COVID-19, and beating the COVID curve on the journey to global and national socio-economic recovery. It was and remains a critical driver of national and global economies. Aviation is an enabler, a facilitator, and a catalyst. Mr. President. I also use this opportunity to request Aviation be integrated into all national economic development initiatives. 

     Mr. President, the Aviation sector needs to be given the attention it deserves as a critical enabler and support platform for you to achieve your vision for Nigeria. I note, however, that so far, there haven’t been aviation specialists/ technocrats in this administration, particularly your Ministerial designates and nominees. Mr. President Aviation is a Sine qua non for national development. Accordingly, there is an urgent need to upscale the quality and standards of our airports’ infrastructure, facilities, and services from economic, social, and political points of view. Our Aviation is not competitive, viable, or sustainable. 

     For over 10 years, so many investments have been made in the aviation sector by the Federal Government, corporate organizations, and individuals running into Billions of US Dollars. Billions of USD of taxpayers’ money, national income, foreign, and local loans have been incurred and procured all in the name of reforming the sector and yet, we are yet to achieve the initial desired objectives. More worrisome is the fact that,  if critical steps are not taken now at such a high level, we may not be able to rescue such a critical sector in the next four years (short to mid-term) in terms of infrastructure deficit, systems, and services.

     Some examples of key issues are as follows:

    According to   Mordor Intelligence, a market research, intelligence, and consulting firm, the aviation market size is expected to grow from USD 333.96 billion in 2023 to USD 386.21 billion by 2028, at a CAGR of 2.95% during the forecast period (2023-2028). Nigeria needs to be positioned for key opportunities going forward.

    • The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is currently, the largest trade market in the world, giving a single market access to about 1.2 billion people, across 52 Countries having a collective GDP of $ 2.5 trillion. Aviation will play a critical role for Nigeria achieving its AFCTA visions and objectives

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    ·•About $500m China load overhang for the upgrade of key Nigeria Airports that is still a work in progress while the project. Is getting more completed with no clear solution and end in sight.

    • Issues of petitions, litigations, etc on the Airport Concessions and Nigeria Air projects, etc 

     It is based on the aforementioned points and more, that I please and beseech you, Mr. President to set up a presidential committee on aviation sector reform. The presidential committee will be more immune to retrogressive elements. The Committee can be given a shorter timeline (e.g. 6 months) than is given to the fiscal policy and tax reform committee. This is because there have been templates that have been set up by previous administrations and a lot of work and money have been invested. The Committee can review and make recommendations  of improvements and propose a better way forward for the industry. I believe that within 6 months or less, the Committee could come up with recommendations for a quick turnaround of the sector.

     In addition, the Committee can become an important support for Mr. President and helps the incoming Minister to achieve a successful sector. Importantly also, Mr. President, I believe such Committee will be a critical value-add because it will be a different layer that will support you and support the new Minister while the new Minister is settling down.

     Mr. President, it is worth of note that of the 48 Ministerial nominees, Honorable Nkieruka Onyejeocha is the most likely the only person that had a tangential aviation experience which is only from a legislative perspective, as the Chairman of the House Committee on Aviation from 2015 to 2019. While I do not doubt the capacity of all Ministers-designate to head any Ministry assigned to them effectively, I believe that legislative oversight of aviation is not enough to equip Ministers to easily weather the current aviation sector minefield. Therefore, the Presidential Committee will facilitate a faster learning curve process for the incoming Minister of Aviation, who may not “hit the ground running. 

     Sir, there is a need to look at our aviation sector from strategic regulatory, operational, and business perfectives because of the sensitivities, and technicalities around the industry, I urge you to declare a state of emergency in the aviation sector 

     The Committee should be made if proven character and performance track record in their various areas of specialization in aviation, in governance, and business. Members could also be drawn from agencies like FIRS, NCS, ICRC, etc., and both public and private sectors so that the recommendations could be robust and far-reaching.  Accordingly, the support of such a critical presidential committee of subject matter experts and technocrats will be very key for “real” aviation reform at this point in time. 

     With regards to regulation of the industry, some legislations over the past 8 years have been passed into law while some legislations remain works in progress with a lot that needs to be done There are also some legislations and/ laws that are incongruent to today’s aviation and in some cases are in parallel to the overall objective of the industry and ICAO provisions, and that is part of the reasons why he impact of aviation on the overall national economy is considered marginally transactional rather tangibly strategic and economically impactful. Another important point to note Mr. President, is what I term, “the minimum acceptable standards” for aviation in Nigeria which should be in line with globally acceptable practices because if we want to remain relevant and competitive, Mr. President, you should take nothing less than that. It is a sector that requires precision, consistency, and sustainability.

     Non-inclusion of aviation in the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform

     Your Excellency, I noted that NCAA and FAAN were not included in the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms. In my opinion, there are serious Fiscal Policy and Tax issues to be addressed in the aviation sector. In addition, as a key revenue collection point, just like NPA and NIMASA, Nigeria Customs, etc., there is a need for input from the two agencies from Aviation to the Presidential Committee. I am sure that the two organizations will provide clarity and add value to the very important assignment of the Committee.

     Additionally, from a Strategic perspective, because Aviation is an enabler for critical sectors, the specialist insights and data from aviation is a critical success factor for broad and all-encompassing Fiscal Policy and Tax reform initiatives and strategies. The inclusion of Aviation will help to achieve tax policy coherence. 

    Your Excellency, as I leave you to decide Mr. President, please accept my best regards and wishes as you lead this Country at a very tough time. These are some of my contributions Mr. President. Thank you and God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Upscaling good governance in states

    Upscaling good governance in states

    Your Excellencies, the Executive Governors of all the States of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I once again congratulate President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, all of you, and fellow Nigerians for the peaceful transition to a new political dispensation. Mr. President and all of you, especially those that have taken new mandates, are settling down to the business of governance, at a critical time in the history of this Country when it is most polarized along ethnic, tribal, religious, regional, and other parochial lines; At a time when the Country is facing the global and national of insecurity and strong socio-economic headwinds.  

    On the 16th of June, 2023 episode of my Column, titled, “So far, so good”, I spoke to Mr. President on some key points which I believe are relevant to our case of nation-building.

     Accordingly, and with the utmost respect to you, your excellencies, please also permit me to speak to you on the following key points as my initial thoughts with regard to upscaling the quality of good governance at the subnational levels (irrespective of political party affiliations) and consequently, the entire Country under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. In doing this, I will yet again lean on the quote by Mr. Lee Kwan Yew (stated above), which to my mind remains relevant to our case of nation-building:

     Dimensioning some of the challenges:

    As you are aware, the Federal Republic of Nigeria is currently facing multiple challenges including:

    •Debt stock of over N77 Trillion; Debt to GDP ratio of over 23%; interest rate of over 20% and rising, Economic growth rate is currently at about 3.1% but projected to contract to about 2.9% next year (according to IMF), over 133million (about 65% of the national population) of Nigerians multidimensionally poor, etc.

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    •Additionally, according to the President of Africa Development Bank, Mr. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria now spends about 96% of its revenue servicing debt, with the debt-to-revenue ratio rising from 83.2 % in 2021 to 96.3 % by 2022. It is also worthy of note that out of the entire Nigeria’s 2023 budget; only 30% of total expenditure will be spent on critical capital projects. The non-debt recurrent expenditure (NDRE) of over N8 trillion is the largest expense in the budget (amounting to about 40%), i.e.,16% higher than the 2022 revised budget of N7.11 trillion. This includes an overhead cost of N4.99 trillion, which accounts for over 60% of non-debt recurrent expenditure. Etc.

    •It is worthy of note that according to the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC), the current revenue-sharing formula is as follows: The Federal Government takes 52.68 % of the revenue share, states get 26.72 %, while local governments get 20.6 %.

     Due to the aforementioned challenges and also with the removal of fuel subsidy by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, (which is a welcome development), it is very important for Governors to “think out of the box” over and beyond monthly subventions from the Federal Government, and find ways to reduce reliance on donations, loans and “grants” from multilateral organization and other Countries, except if and when necessary; to rather focus more on value creation and value-innovation within the available and potential resources  (material and human) to your respective States. Interestingly, every State in Nigeria is blessed with abundant natural resources like solid minerals, agriculture, human capital, etc. which if properly harnessed, leveraged, and nurtured will drive the socio-economic progress and development of your respective States in the short-to-long term. This is the time for Governors to demonstrate the capacity, creativity, and love for their people and Nigeria – individually and collectively a better Nigeria. 

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    Nigerians are also expecting accelerated interventions at State levels. I commend the efforts of some Governors who have already taken proactive steps to mitigate the impact of the removal of fuel subsidy on their populace. The notion that the President is the only one responsible for the welfare and well-being of the citizens of Nigeria is not correct. The Governors are also key to the delivery of good governance as is evident in your various activities and interventions. But there is a need for more action and performance, with consequent positive impacts and more visibility.

     The execution quotient of your excellencies with regards to the promise you made to Nigerians during your campaigns will determine the speed and quality of the dividends of democracy that the people will enjoy in your respective states during your tenure. It is also worth noting that the political consciousness of Nigerians is at its highest since independence, and therefore the citizens are watching and will be sensitive to developments (positive or negative).

     With the current global and national economic challenges that are increasingly impacting on our national income and other economic inflows/ receivables which are used to drive governance and deliver dividends of democracy at federal and subnational levels, it is important that I remind your excellencies of some very important critical success factors:

     Critical success factors

    •I believe that more quick wins will be achieved at the subnational level to complement the efforts of Mr. President at the Federal level. Mr. President signed into law some legislations that done at the twilight of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari by the 9th National Assembly, that gives the States of Nigeria for powers for example to generate, transmit and distribute their own electricity and other support systems so that they can be more impactful at the subnational level because you are closer to the people.  While I propose some policy coherence and correlation between the States and the Federal Government, I also look forward to your excellencies, operating in modular ways by applying some critical and strategic thinking to catalyze the socio-economic development of your various States in a way and manner that there will be succor and sustenance for the people. 

    •Value innovation through Public Private Sector (PPP) initiatives. In this case, I dare say the “real, people-oriented and impactful PPP” models (and not white elephant projects) if used viably and efficiently used as strategic tools, will change the dwindling fortunes of the States, especially in terms if critical infrastructure like roads, bridges, agriculture, solid minerals exploration and management, health care systems etc.

    •Another critical success factor is in the area of Youth Empowerment. I urge you to continuously harness the skills of Youths and channel them to productivity and development, from technical skills acquisition, talent hunting, value, and job creation, entrepreneurship, and importantly education in all its ramifications, value re-orientation, and leadership by example. To enable them to earn sustainable good lives and livelihoods.

    •In addition, at the National Executive Council level, to see some new strategic synergies of creativity to engender productive states and national economies in the short to long term. 

    •Inter-state collaboration and partnerships regardless of party affiliations is very important going forward. I expect to see more of such collaborations by individual states and also by leveraging platforms like the Nigerian Governors Forum, for governors to look beyond party lines and to look at the constitutional mandate of governorship and align the provisions with the visions and aspirations of Governors. Such partnerships could result in an increase in the income of your respective states, create more jobs, and better welfare and well-being of your people.

    Review of the structure and cost of governance for an efficient public sector – Upgrading and streamlining governance framework (across all strata of the public Sector). For example, emulating the recommendations of the Orososanye Report. 

    •Entrenchment of the culture of excellence and prudence in the public sector by providing quintessential leadership, i.e. starting the reforms from the top and setting examples with zero tolerance to indolence, mediocrity, nepotism, and sycophancy.

    •Transparency and Accountability in public service, resources allocation, and utilization

    •Anticorruption Strategy and Value-Reorientation: Beyond the mantra to action through realistic, practical, and pragmatic plans and actions with the requisite strategy, management, and execution.

    •Local Government Autonomy: While this topic remains a thorny issue in line with the principle of devolution of powers, I will still urge your excellencies to ensure the entrenchment of the autonomy of the Local Government Administrations as a critical success factor for governance at the State level. This will remove a pile of blames from Governors for the non-performance of some Local Government Chairmen and their Councilors.

     Conclusion

    In conclusion, your excellencies, I know that governance at this critical time in the history of Nigeria is not easy, and I commend you for taking the bold and tough decision to serve as Governors in the Federal Republic of Nigeria. I am also sure that you prepared for this moment knowing the challenges that you will face, and more importantly, your people elected you with a lot of expectations. Therefore, to whom much is given, much is expected.  I leave you with this quote by Mr. Jack Welch, “When you are made a leader, you weren’t given a crown, you were given the responsibility to bring out the best in others”. I wish you all, Mr. Present and all Nigerians, God’s Guidance and Grace. May Almighty God Continue to Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • How ready is Nigeria for AFCFTA?

    How ready is Nigeria for AFCFTA?

    “With each new day in Africa, a gazelle wakes up knowing he must outrun the fastest lion or perish. At the same time, a lion stirs and stretches, knowing he must outrun the fastest gazelle or starve. It is no different for the human race. Whether you consider yourself a gazelle or a lion, you simply have to run faster than others to survive.” ¯ Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Monarch of Dubai and Prime Minister of United Arab Emirate (UAE)…

    Today, I will reflect on Nigeria’s preparedness to participate in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA); in doing so, I wish to lean on my credentials as the first substantive MD/CEO of arguably the first operational airport free trade zone (FTZ) in Nigeria (not Export Processing Zone – because FTZs are more all-encompassing), and also as member of the World Free Trade Zone  Organization (WZO) amongst other relevant professional experiences out of over 25 years of my professional career across various sectors including International Trade and Investment, Aviation, Logistics and Supply chain, ICT, Agriculture, and Solid Minerals.

    The journey so far

    The African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) has been ratified by Nigeria, joining other 52 African Countries to form the biggest single continental market for goods and services in the world.  This is a welcome development considering the benefits of creating the largest trade market in the world giving access to over 1.2billion people with a collective GDP $2.5Trillion. At full implementation, AFCFTA is expected to boost intra-regional trade to at least 33% from the current 10% in the next decade.  AFCFTA is also projected to lift at least 50 million people out of extreme poverty by 2035, according to analysts, however, the slow pace of action is becoming a source of worry.

    In addition, AFCFTA is also aimed at facilitating free movement of persons, capital, and investment to deepen economic integration, promote and attain sustainable and inclusive socio-economic development, gender equality, industrialization, agricultural development, food security, and structural transformation.

    President Muhammadu Buhari took initial steps to ensure successful take-off especially with the setup of the National Action Committee on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) and the appointment of Mr. Olusegun Awolowo as Secretary, in the last quarter of last year.

    The essence of good vision critical and strategic thinking

    About 20 years ago President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as the then Executive Governor of Lagos State, conceptualized and setup the Lekki/ Lagos Free Trade Zone. It was a visionary and courageous move – highly strategic. About twenty years after the conceptualization of arguably the largest Free Trade one in Africa, the AFCFTA was berthed, as if that is not enough, the $19bn Dangote Refinery, the largest refinery in the world is sitting in the Lekki Free Trade Zone; moreover, the construction works on phase-1 of the $1.5 billion Lagos multipurpose deep seaport located on the Lekki Free Trade Zoe is also completed. In addition, the space and preparation for the Lekki International Airport is ongoing – the next level Airport that will be part of one of the biggest logistics hub in  Africa. The Lekki Free Trade Zone has become a game-changing platform for game changing projects that will not only turnaround the economy of Nigeria but will certainly be the best foot that Nigeria will put forward in the AFCTA competitive space going forward.

    Based on the aforementioned antecedents, I am optimistic that during the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria will successfully key into the AFCFTA and achieve the objectives.

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    How can Nigeria key into the opportunities and rein-in the benefits?

    According to AFCTA Secretariat, the current value chain priorities for the ACFTA secretariat towards job creation and industrialization on the continent are; Agriculture and agro-processing, Transport and Logistics, Pharmaceuticals, Automotive sector.

    To further contextualize the initiative, in the words of the Secretary General of AFCFTA Mr. Wamkele Mene, “The private sector creates jobs, not governments, not the AFCFTA secretariat. Collectively it is our job to establish the requisite investment climate so that African businesses can take advantage.”. To that extent, the private sector will be key to the achievement of the AFCFTA.

    The way forward for Nigeria, is to as a matter of priority improve and upscale our competitiveness in terms of our critical infrastructure i.e., intermodal transportation network; power; logistics and supply chain platforms i.e the airports and the entire aviation value chain; seaports and the entire maritime value chain, land borders; products value addition and processing.  Therefore, our preparedness domestically is very critical. There should a wholistic approach in collaboration with relevant stakeholders to formulate an over-arching strategy to achieve the key objectives and importantly reining-in the benefits for Nigeria and consequently for Africa.

    To improve our trade volumes and increase incomes, we need to improve the state of our not-so-competitive manufacturing and industrial sectors that are struggling under multiple global socio-economic variables, it is a major red flag. Multiple taxation and leakages; and tax policy incoherence are other major barriers to success for AFCFTA. I believe that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, already has in his mind the objective of making our AFCFTA participation a success, as he stated some weeks ago during his maiden speech as the Chairman of Economic Communities of West African States (ECOWAS), wherein he talked about leveraging on the opportunities provided by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA).

    Points to note

    • Nigeria is blessed by a unique strategic geographical location, arable land; huge, skillful and productive human capital and abundant natural resources. With the right strategic planning, performance-driven execution, and ultimately political will, Nigeria will be primed to contribute immensely on AFCFTA, while earning maximum socio-economic values.

    • Appropriate funding is very important. I expect to see robust and viable PPPs what will support critical infrastructure and sectors

    • Cost of doing business in Nigeria is high and will impact on the cost of items produced thereby making them expensive and not competitive. This so especially when such products and services have to compete favorably in at the global and continental markets.

    • As at 2021, about 50% of the Africa GDP was driven by the Services sector. Therefore, a lot need to be done to encourage players by introducing incentives to scale down the cost of doing business, because countries like Ghana, Togo, etc. are slowly becoming hubs that are eating deeply into Nigeria’s market share in sectors like Aviation, Maritime, etc.

    • Because of the lead time it takes to plan, invest, setup and operate the critical infrastructure and systems, the time to start actions should be immediate.

    • Project execution from a project management perspective is another key point to note..

    • What will be our international trade and investment strategy and endgame? What are the strategies to ease business and ensure positive outcomes and impacts?

    • It is worthy of note that many years before AFCFTA, Nigeria has been providing goods and services to the West African Countries and also some other Countries in sub-Saharan Africa for example, Niger to Mail, Benin to Sierra Leon; Nigeria to Chad, Cameroun up Sudan. These trades have been happening majorly informally. Therefore, this is an opportunity for Nigeria to gain immensely from AFCFTA.

    • We need to have synergies and coherence in terms of policies conceptualization, formulation and execution. Using our international airports in Nigeria as an example. Instead of having the single window platform in line with best practices and also inline of the Ease of doing business policy, in practical terms you have layers and layers of bottlenecks and over-arching regulations that otherwise should have been streamlines and made seamless, transparent, efficient and accountable for the ease of doing business

    • Some of the inhibitors that will continue to draw us back if not addressed in short to long term objective if AFCFTA the “US” factor. The competing, conflicting and/ or parallel intra-Africa trade policies and actions including air bi-lateral agreements amongst member nations of the African Union (AU) will remain a key inhibitor. Therefore, there is the need for sincerity of purpose and practical synergies amongst member nations with regards to international trade, insecurity.

    Based on the aforementioned, Nigeria’s over-arching national strategy has to change especially with regards to the Economy, Foreign Policy, Trade and Investment. Foreign policy as a nexus for international Trade

    Other critical success factors incude

    • Upscaling our logistics and supply chain capabilities by improving and upscaling our airports, seaports, intermodal transport network and land borders infrastructure and management capacities

    • Modernising customs and border processes: Streamlining intra-Africa crossings 

    • Technology

    • Improvement of our laws through Legislation, Policy, and Regulation reviews

    • Standards and Quality Assurance – Monitoring, Compliance, and Enforcement

    • Building in-country Trade Facilitation capacity

    • Sensitisation strategy for the critical stakeholder

    • Harmonisation of Standards and Regulations

    Conclusion

    I request that all the aforementioned factors need to be considered in crafting the strategy blueprint and roadmap – it must be a wholistic strategy starting with building our internal capacities, competencies and other resources. The infrastructure, economic gateways, support for our local industry, other sectoral investors and service providers will be cataclysmic to the achievement of the objective of AFCFTA, and to also effectively reap the full political, and socio-economic benefits of AFCFTA.