The Nation Newspaper

Category: Baba Yusuf

  • It’s time for NNPCL to let go

    It’s time for NNPCL to let go

    The incessant shutdown of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) refineries with the attendant waste and loss of billions of US dollars with no real “turnaround” after the so-called “turnaround maintenances” were undertaken, and the macabre dramas to follow, are clear indications that the NNPC refineries are no longer productive or viable but rather they have become special purpose vehicles for corruption and waste. Therefore, it is time for the NNPC to let go of the refineries. This should have been done over 20 years ago.

     Dimensioning the issues

    Between March, 2021 to 12th of August 2021, the Federal Executive Council (FEC), under the leadership of former President Muhammadu Buhari, approved a total sum of 2.96 billion US Dollars for the turnaround maintenance of the three Nigerian Refineries, as follows: 1.48 billion US Dollars for Port Harcourt Refinery, 897 million US Dollars for Warri Refinery, and 586 million US Dollars for Kaduna Refinery. At that time, 1.48 billion US Dollars could be used to build a brand new 60,000-barrel refinery.

     In May, 2023, the then outgoing 9th National Assembly stated that, over a period of ten (10) years (from 2013 to 2013) Nigeria spent $25 billion to fix the three “moribund” refineries which amounted to about 11.35 trillion Naira (at the prevailing exchange rate at that time) on “repairs” of the country’s refineries, as the outgoing parliament called for a forensic audit of the matter (I wonder what they did to stop the slew during their eight years reign out of the ten years).

     Since January this year (2025), the Warri Refinery has been shut down, due to safety issues with its Crude Distillation Unit Main Heater. As if that was just the beginning of another meltdown, last week, around the 26th of May, the NNPC announced the shutdown of Unit 10 in Area 5 of the Port Harcourt Refinery (PHRC), officially citing sustainability concerns.

    We should also recall that, out of the above mentioned $2.96 billion that was approved by FEC in 2021, $1 billion was borrowed, syndicated from AFREXIMBANK; $450 million was borrowed through a crude oil swap agreement where a company that has a license to lift crude oil advanced the NNPC cash in exchange for giving it crude oil over a period of time as repayment with interest to do rehabilitation and maintenance. And to date, the values or impact of such huge sums of money expended for “turnaround maintenance” cannot be accounted for, seen, or felt. This is in addition to the deceptive drama of continuous failed operations of the refineries after churning out small quantities of refined products over a month or two, while the previous administrations of the NNPC keep telling Nigerians stories.

     This is a sad and unfortunate situation for Nigeria, of the inability if the NNPC to properly operate such low-capacity state-owned refineries, in comparison to ARAMCO of Saudi Arabia (as a classic example) that has continuously successfully operated, scaled, and sustained its large capacity 630,000 barrels per day refining capacity.  Indeed, other state-owned refineries in other countries are operating efficiently and profitably. Of course, Nigeria has the human and material capacity and competencies to successfully operate new, bigger, and better functional refineries, but corruption and the lack of political will have rendered almost all well-set-up, state-owned institutions and ventures either unproductive or unsuccessful.

     Around the year 2004, when President Obasanjo mandated an evaluation of the refineries, the experts’s Valuation and Opinion were that the assets (refineries) were qualified as “dead”, and that the refineries, as at that time (about 20 years ago), were no longer “going concerns”. We already know the story of how the administration of the then-President Olusegun Obasanjo approved the sale of the refineries. Companies like Dangote Group bid and won, amongst others. But that process was cancelled by President Umar Musa ‘Yar’Adua. 20 years down the line and with over 27 billion US Dollars down the drain, the refineries are worse off, and Nigeria is further short-changed.

     A call to action

    Based on the aforementioned facts and other justifications that I will highlight below, I believe that the right way to go for the NNPC under the new leadership of the Group Chief Executive Officer, Engineer Bashir Bayo Ojulari, and Engr. Ahmadu Musa Kida, as Chairman of the Board of Directors, is to recalibrate the NNPC strategy with new thinking, and focus. Certainly, for the team to effectively deliver the mandate given by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, with regard to the volume of crude oil output of 2.5 million barrels per day, etc., those refineries would be huge distractions for the NNPC with all the entanglements and encumbrances around them. For a long time, the NNPC refineries have been overdue for decommissioning, sale, or concession.

    Read Also: Tinubu can build ‘Nigeria of our dreams’ – Wike

     Therefore, I urge the new leadership of the NNPC, ers who I believe are practical and pragmatic leaders, to immediately, as a matter of priority, take a position and submit to Mr. President a proposal to sell off or concession all of the refineries to interested private companies and completely hands off the refineries which have become pipelines for slush funds for some vested interests.

     Some key justifications

    Economic and Finance perspective

    The refineries in their current state only impair the NNPC balance sheet, and therefore, they should no longer be considered as “critical national assets”, but rather “highly contentious liabilities”.

     Strategic Considerations

    Operational viability, product availability, supply chain reliability, and predictability are key determinants of decisions as well as commercial calculations. Hence, the incessant failures of the NNOC refineries should no longer be part of the NNPC’s current plans, operational framework, or strategic outlook. Going forward, I expect that the NNPC should be more focused on the upstream exploration and production strategies and exploits, and other key focus areas in line with the mandate of Mr. President, rather than for the NNPC to be burdened by the horror of what I call “the midstream deadweights” of failed refineries.

     Cost-benefit Analysis

    The emergence and success of the records-breaking and game-changing 650,000 barrels per day (BPD) Dangote Petroleum Refinery with the huge multi-refining capacity, and other upcoming refineries in Nigeria is a clearly demonstration that the NNPC refineries are no longer a productive part of Nigeria’s current midstream and downstream oil and gas value chain and they will certainly not be part of the future.

    More importantly, the fact that the 650,000 barrels per day (BPD) Dangote Petroleum Refinery was set up with about $20 billion is telling of the level of rot in the erstwhile NNPC, whereby over $28 billion have so far been sunk into our state-owned refineries with a combined refining capacity of 445,000 barrels per day (bpd) with obsolete and “dead” equipment over a period of 12 years with NO VALUE to show. This should be unacceptable.

     Way forward advice

    Consequently, it is no longer strategic, economically viable, morally correct, or even politically expedient for the NNPC to continue the “symbolism” of holding on to the ailing, unproductive, and wasteful NNPC refineries. In my opinion, this is especially so, given that most of the equipment has reached the “end of life” status, especially given the Billions of US Dollars that have been wasted/ stolen for decades under the pretext of “repairs” and “turnaround maintenance” by successive administrations. This vicious circle of corruption and evil should stop, just like the Fuel subsidy was stopped by President Tinubu. The “repairs” and “turnaround maintenance” are no longer defensible under any logical or responsible justification. Even the optics are offensive to Nigerians and deplorable to Nigeria’s partners and the international community.

      I urge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to approve the sale/ concession of the ailing and “cancerous” refineries, with the gusto and decisiveness that Mr. President stopped the Fuel subsidy, which I supported. I believe that it will be one of the quick wins for the new NNPC leadership, and more importantly, it will be a critical success factor for the reform of the Oil and Gas sector under the leadership of President Tinubu, which will be in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2023. Let’s cut our losses as a nation and move on. Else, the administration of President Bola Tinubu will again be bedeviled with this vicious cycle of throwing money into a bottomless pit. The refineries have become sources of embarrassment for successive leaderships of the NNPC, and indeed, they have also become sources of graft, humongous loss of our national revenue and income. Indeed, the refineries in their current state have outlived their usefulness and are now clogs in the wheel of progress of the NNPC in particular and Nigeria in general.

     Another key reason why the cyclical grafts and rot continue to happen with regards to the management of our refineries is the fact that to date, nobody has been held properly to account for the mismanagement of the NNPC and indeed for continuously playing the game of deception with the NNPC refineries.

     Hence, there is the urgent need for decisive consequence management by President Tinubu with regards to what had been happening in the NNPC, to demonstrate clearly that gone are the days that the NNPC as Nigeria’s critical national income pipeline which key to our national existence and sustainability; will be allowed to be toyed with by anyone or any group of vested interests.

  • North West Commission a golden opportunity

    North West Commission a golden opportunity

    The NWDC Mandate within the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Tinubu

    It is interesting that the North West Development Commission (NWDC), has become active after successful legislation, enactment into law and the appointment of a leadership team that is driving the Commission. The Commission’s leadership has hit the ground running at a very important time in the political history of Nigeria. Certainly, this is an important milestone for the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. I commend Mr. President for balancing the regional intervention initiatives across all the six (6) geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Consequently, as we approach the midterm of President Tinubu’s administration, all eyes are on all the regional development commissions, to witness how they perform and make high tangible impacts in line with their mandates, build up to the 2027 general elections.

    Indeed, the NWDC is part of the strategy of President Bola Tinubu to ensure the delivery of not just of good governance, but deepening and widening the scope and the impacts of development and good governance in all the nooks and crannies of Nigeria. It therefore behooves on the Board of Directors, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, and other top executives of these development commission to succeed.

    I commend Mr. President for the consolidation of the regional development agencies or corporations under the Ministry of Regional Development, it is also a welcome development. Indeed. the regional development Commissions will be streamlined, more organized, efficient, and effective under the current federal executive structure.

    I am particular about the North West, because where there’s a lot of work cut out for the NWDC in terms of poverty alleviation, support for infrastructural development, in terms of the addressing the serious education deficit in the north, which is a fulcrum of the dwindling, the backwardness of the northwest in the scheme of things in northern Nigeria.

    It is important to note that out of the about 70% of the over 100million multidimensionally poor Nigerians (according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics), about 70% are in northern Nigeria, out of which about 50% of them are from the northwest. The vagaries of the insecurity which has pushed a significant number of our farmers from farms thereby impacting food security and other economic variables, natural disasters like flooding, the teeming unemployed youths, increasing number of out-of-school children including the almajris, increasing number of adults, adolescents and children beggars on the streets of the Northwest are all pointers to the dire need for developmental impacts of very important institutions like the North West Development Commission, and by extension, the North East Development, and the North Central Development Commissions.

    Read Also: East-West road for completion in December, Eleme axis opens in 10 days, FG assures

    In addition, the reason why I am reflecting on the NWDC in particular is because I am from Kano State in North West Nigeria. Plus, I believe that the North West, having delivered the highest number of votes to President Tinubu, and indeed to almost every Nigerian that had become a president in this country; the NWDC is a golden opportunity for the northern political leadership in this administration improve good governance impacts. They have no choice but deliver in the next two years.

    Setting the Agenda:

    What is the vision and what are the Strategic Objectives?

    The question is, what is the vision of the current board and the CEO of the NWDC? What is the strategic blueprint NWDC to ensure that they are front-facing, sure-footed, decisive, and speedy in delivering the mandate?

    In my humble opinion, we expect the NWDC to come up with a communication strategy that will key into the overall strategy which will ensure that in the next three months, six months, one year, etc.; the entire North West region and all Nigeria are able to see and feel the footprints and impacts of the NWDC across North West region.

    Moreover. I look forward to synergies between the Commission and all the state governors of North West. I am delighted that the executive governors of states in the North West, are fully cooperating and ready to support to this commission across party lines because actually the NDWC is about governance and it is also about the progress of Nigeria. It is also highly impressive that some well-meaning business leaders of Nigeria, from the North West, particularly Ahaji Abdulsamad Isyaku Rabiu, the Chairman, BUA Group of Companies, and Professor Adamu Abubakar Gwarzo, the President and Founder of the MAAUN Group of Universities, have demonstrated yet again high level of patriotism by donating an entire building blocks of buildings at different locations in Kano State, to the NWDC for their management and operations. I comment the two model indigenes of North West, and model citizens of Nigeria for the very laudable display of uncommon patriotism and love for there people. Certainly, Alhaji Abdusamad Isyaku Rabiu, and Professor Adamu Abubakar Gwarzo have set a good precedence for other leaders of the region to emulate, and I am confident that they. We have a lot of good men and women of sterling character in the North West as always.

    The truth is that this Commission is not about political party, ethnicity, tribe of religion, and should not be so or made to be so in any way. The NWDC and other regional development commissions are about developmental impacts on the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Accordingly, I advise the Commission to, as a matter of urgency, convene a strategy session to review their situation. Look at the vision, and what they intend to do with their resources allocated the NWDC and timelines for performance. I expect, that a strategy blueprint in ready or will be ready the next 1 month.

    One of the banes of our developments as a nation and as a polity, especially in most part of the past 25 years of this 4th Republic; is the lack of adequate and proper planning, and worse lack proper execution, measurement of performance, and demonstrable impacts. Many leaders fail o communicate properly to Nigerians, and more importantly for the people to feel the impacts. Impacts are dimensioned at different levels, and it is very important for the NWDC to demonstrate a sense of responsibility with a sensing strategy to deliver their mandate. With profound respect, may I remind the NWDC that, “to whom much is given, much is expected”. I am optimistic that the current leadership of the NWDC will succeed. We will continue to support to the NWDC to succeed, as I wish them good luck. I also hope and pray that this will be yet again another layer that will bring succor to the people of the North West in particular and people of Nigeria in general

    Critical Success Factors

    Here are some of my initial thoughts with regard to some key focus areas some of which actually align with the NWDC’s priorities:

    •I will use this opportunity to still reiterate the importance of governors to the success of the NWDC. They are the leaders of the region, and they have their core responsibilities as enshrined in the 1999 constitution. I urge them, as many Nigerians, to give the ultimate support, which I know they will, to the Northwest Development Commission across party lines.

    •Tackling the issue of rising out-of-school children and almadjiris, should be a high priority focus area for which; education, poverty alleviation, and youth empowerment are very critical success factor. On the issue of education, the focus I suggest in my view should be on primary school and secondary school education. Of course, I note clearly that it is a key responsibility or the primary responsibility of state governors.

    •A collaboration, with respect to the kind of specific interventions that will be clearly delineated from what the governors are doing is very key in trying to provide interventions for the states to ensure that the teeming uneducated children, and youths are educated, and gainfully employed, in terms of the core academics and more importantly, in technical education. and vocational skills. These is also another critical success factor the NWDC in collaboration with the state governments, for this to be part of the sates’ economic recovery and growth strategy.

    •Simultaneously, addressing the issues of unemployment and poverty alleviation, wholesome, recognizing that Northwest Nigeria is one of the major locations of the majority of the multidimensionally poor people of Nigeria.

    • Providing healthcare support system interventions is another a critical success factor; specially in the areas of infant maternal mortality, communicable diseases, waterborne diseases, etc.

    •Dealing with the issues the issue of agriculture which is directly related to the level of insecurity in Nigeria and therefore dealing with insecurity, is very crucial and it’s a key priority area for the northwest of Commission to collaborate with state governments to see how they can also support, you know, to deliver this issue.

    I will be closely watching developments in NWDC and I hope and pray that this will be the be one of the ways for a turnaround of the socioeconomic situation of our region which is a very critical stakeholder in the scheme of political and socioeconomic structure of schemes and dynamics of Nigeria.

    In a subsequent episode I will share more of my thoughts on the very important government initiative.

    Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • The Nigeria First procurement policy

    The Nigeria First procurement policy

    Last week, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu mandated the “Renewed Hope Nigeria First” policy on all federal government procurements. I commend Mr. President for reactivating this policy vide an Executive Order, which will certainly add value to the economic reforms by President Tinubu. The policy will certainly catalyze the return of Nigeria’s manufacturing value chain, which is critical to our productive sector as the only way to economic prosperity.

     However, it is worth noting that the “Nigeria First” procurement policy was enacted by the previous administrations, but the policy implementation failed. It is therefore important that the government takes note of the pitfalls so as to ensure its success during this administration. The pitfalls include lack of political will, lack of a properly crafted strategy to ensure that the strategic objective is achieved. Another reason why is the previous attempts have failed is also due to lack of proper national development plan to ensure that the productive sector is reactivated having been comatose for decades, to be able to provide those required materials that will ensure that we buy only Nigerian products.

    Most of the time, policies must be ingrained within the polity before they can be successfully implemented and impactful. That is the crucial pillar that will ensure that the “Nigeria First” policy works. In 1933, the United States of America, under the leadership of President Franklin Roosevelt, implemented the “Buy American” policy. To ensure the success of the policy, there was a robust strategy to also ensure that local production was boosted to ensure that the policy was sustainable. Therefore, I expect the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) who has been mandated to look at the entire federal government procurement list and come up with a proper plan for restrictions to also ensure that we are working pari passu with enabling the critical infrastructure that will drive our productive sector and to also ensure that the federal government is looking policy side by side with Nigeria’s multilateral trade policy and agreements with our allies so that we don’t also shoot ourselves in the field around the risk of losing strategic advantage and other issues.

     Another key point to note is that part of the strategy to ensure the success of this policy is that we should just let the principles of the reality of demand and supply drive our internal supply standards. By the supply side, I mean “quality”. Over time, we all know that some of the key factors that determine demand availability, cost and quality. In the case of the “Nigeria First” policy, I am particular about cost and quality. Because cost and quality are also products of the economic vicious cycle of the cost of production. Inflation is driving the cost of almost everything higher as it is today. So how government is able to enable production, like I stated earlier, in a way and manner that it scales down the cost of products and services while ensuring that various agencies of government like the SON, NAFDAG, etc ensure that the quality and the standards are maintained, so that consumers will be happy to continue patronizing locally made products.

     We should also note that there are some products that may not be within the restriction bracket, but the fact that we have them locally made qualitatively and with good competitive pricing will naturally push consumers to the locally made ones rather than the foreign goods and services. Thus, it is very important that while this policy is implemented, the strategic pillars are put in place to ensure success and sustainability, i.e., ensure the productive sector is active, ensure the standards, and ensure that we scale down all the economic variables that are high. Of course, with President Trump’s global tariff war, the “Nigeria First” policy is also good because all countries are looking inwards to see how they can be creative to retain foreign exchange and to also guarantee that we boost exports in the long term.

     The strategic and economic objectives of the “Nigeria First” can only be achieved if we have a strategy for it. Otherwise, it will fail. What do I mean by that? In the short term, the big players in the local industry, like the Dangote Refinery, BUA, Cement, Innocent Motors, etc., will likely be the ones that will be able to make the impact. But suffice it to say that some of the industries are facing challenges of capacity, for example, Innoson Motors and others who still require some materials for them to keep up with the demand, because there’s high demand already. We should recall that even for the administration of President Tinubu, there was an attempt by the federal government and some state governments to procure vehicles from Innoson, but the order level was so high that Innoson could not keep up with the rate of orders. 

     Accordingly, increasing the capacity of the productive sector remains a critical success factor on the top line. Another critical success factor is the medium-scale and the small-scale industry in the productive sector, because those subsectors have a high impact in terms of production and supply of products and services. Furthermore, the agriculture value chain is also a critical success factor. For instance, there are about 30 million pupils and students who attend primary, secondary, and tertiary schools in Nigeria. At the beginning of every new session of classes, most of them make new uniforms. What makes uniform is the Cotton. Hence, we can note the intersectoral links across value chains in Nigeria. That is why we have a need for a strategy, not silo-driven policies that may be impactful and/ or sustainable, as we have seen over time due to the gaps across the value chains. Otherwise, the policy could fail within the next two years.

    Read Also: BPP rallies MDAs, others on compliance with ‘Nigeria First’ procurement policy

     Available and sustainable electricity/ energy remains a pillar for the success of our economy, or any policy that supports it, for that matter. If the government does not address the power deficit in Nigeria, this policy and all other economic recovery and development strategies and policies will not succeed. Without available, scalable, and sustainable electricity, Nigeria will not make any progress as a nation. Therefore, due to the power deficit in Nigeria, the federal government should be creative in providing “bridges to compensate for any shortfall in the policy implementation, pending when Nigeria achieves optimal availability of electricity. For instance, within the framework of a bilateral/ multilateral framework/agreement with other countries, Nigeria will not take complete products, but 50% will be made within the country. Maybe Nigeria will import what are called “Completely Knocked-Down” (CKD) items. Then we assemble that items in Nigeria. That will reduce the cost of production.

     Moreover, it is very important that part of the policy are timelines to measure performance and impacts and conduct economic and social impact assessment to ensure that, the policy is working in terms of driving government expenditure down, in terms of adding value to the economy, and also in terms of building capacity, and when and if necessary, rejig the policy to ensure sustainability. That is the only way to succeed.

    Another very important point is the political will to sustain the policy. Because the rhetorical question has failed before. Let us recall that during President Jonathan or President Buhari, when they banned the importation of furniture, for example. Public officials were still importing furniture for official use. Senators and other public officeholders were still bypassing this policy. And if that continues to happen in this particular instance, then the objective will be defeated. As we have seen many times, it is political will that will ensure the success of such very important policies. Quintessential leadership from the top to ensure that not just the procurement of the items, but the process itself ensures that no public official, no matter how highly placed, could bypass or violate the policy. Unless you measure the impacts time to time, and I like the point when you talk about timeline, not just timeline of execution but timeline of measuring impacts and measuring performance is the only way that you will ensure sustainability along the lines of those crucial you know pillars of success otherwise in the next one year we are going into elections that will not be the focus and before you know it will also go the same way the previous executive orders went all right thank you gentlemen.

  • Identity Politics versus National Development

    Identity Politics versus National Development

    Some thought leaders and well-meaning Nigerians are of the opinion that identity politics is the bane of our polity and development, and I agree. By identity politics, I mean a societal culture whereby the political, social, environmental, and economic dynamics are influenced and/ or determined by racism, tribalism, ethnic jingoism, religious extremism, chauvinism, and other forms of bigotry and parochialism. However, Nigeria and indeed any other Country or society will be better if they are able to overcome parochialism, ethnic jingoism, and other forms of identity politics.

     Global Perspective

    Identity politics has been part and parcel of the political evolution of the entire world. It is part of global sociology. Interestingly, rather than diminishing, identity politics is becoming a more prominent global reality. Certainly, identity politics has always been driving global, national, and subnational politics and socio-economic power dynamics from time immemorial, but more so in the past 60 years. Even though it is being hypocritically downplayed, we witness and experience it everywhere in public and private sectors, including our workplaces and communities. Like other parts of the world, identity politics is part of African culture. The current and historical political dynamics in almost all African countries are the stark reality of the global socio-political situation, which are the indications that national and global geopolitics will continue to be run along the lines of nationalism and protectionism rather than globalization, which in my view are other forms of identity politics.

     Accordingly, globally, we are seeing a reversal of the achievements made in the past 60 years of trying to break down the barriers of race, religion, ethnicity, prejudice, etc. We are witnessing what is happening in Gaza for the past over 50 years between the Israel and Palestine and the position taken by the global superpowers, especially the western powers, and even the middle-east power blocs, who play the ostrich when it comes to those interests that satisfy their strategic objectives, regardless of how inhumane and how horrible the situation is for the less fortunate countries, states, communities and/ or people. The same scenario is playing out in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, etc. These hypocrisies in conversations and actions are amongst the reasons why I believe that the politics of identity will continue to drive political systems and the emergence of political leaders in societies and nations, including “democratic” societies/Countries.

     Identity politics hinders or destroys societies or national development, fosters polarization, disunity, inequality, and injustice, with the attendant negative consequences.  It narrows the view and progress of any nation or society. Therefore, in my view, in trying to address the issue of identity politics, from a strategic perspective, it is for us to see how we can bring what I call a “balance”, rather than trying to eliminate it or trying to pretend that it is the only problem, or trying to think that some people can actually just stop it. This is because politics of identity is part and parcel of our moral and societal fabric across the world, regardless of race, religion, and regardless of how old or how deep the so-called “democratic tenets” are. The politics of identity remains a key element, leverage or driver of political campaigns and the determinant of electoral victory, or attainment of political power even in the United States of America, United Kingdom, Germany, France, China, etc.

     Consequently, if it is something we cannot do away with, then why shouldn’t we have a system that will manage the process for all of us? Even within the boundaries of countries of the superpowers or the top economies of the world, the politics of identity is what is driving those countries, whether they are at war or they are at peace. From the United States of America to the United Kingdom to Europe to the Middle East to the Far East, Africa, or anywhere else. The re-emergence and growing popularity of the right-wing political parties and power blocks sweeping elections across Europe is key evidence of the prominence of identity politics in the global scheme. Hence, the politics of identity is a key factor that determines the political direction of the entire world. Additionally, the return of President Donald Trump as the President of the United States of America (Trump 2.0) will further clear the doubts of those who think that identity politics is growing in prominence.

     Nigeria and the 2027 Elections

    Read Also: FULL LIST: Nigeria, others not indebted to IMF

    Identity politics in Nigeria is so strong that it cannot be overshadowed even by the power of incumbency at the subnational, state, or national level. It guides our political awareness, determines our political, social, and economic directions. A classic example is the fact that even though Nigerians are aware of the failures of political leaders at the federal and subnational levels. But because of identity politics, we ignore the mistakes or failures of our political leaders at our own peril. For instance, during the tenure of President Goodluck Jonathan, and the tenure President Muhammadu Buhari, or the incumbent President Bola Tinubu, citizens will mostly to be sentimental and never complain or criticize the President, if he comes from their region, state, tribe or religion, even if they are eating from the dustbin or dying in droves. Conversely, citizens are also reluctant to celebrate or commend the President or Governor, even if he is performing well, if he is not of their region, state, tribe, or religion. It is even worse at the state levels, because in the States; the most of the people that are suffering the most are the people that are defending the state governors, no matter how poorly they perform. That is what is identity politics does to a society.

     The politics of identity is a topic of discussion in any political forum and any democratic process. The only difference is that in the more advanced democracies, it is done more sublimely/ hypocritically than in a country like Nigeria. So, to contextualize this perspective, to the buildup to the 2027 general elections, as we approach the mid-term of President Tinubu, I wonder if should we could easily de-emphasize or wish away identity politics. In fact, in my view identity politics will play a huge role in the 2027 general elections, more than ever before.

     It is highly likely that in the 2027 general elections, we will witness how identity politics may tip the dynamics even more than population. While population has been driving and determining political directions and electoral victories, whether it is in terms of official census numbers, which some citizens challenge its veracity or in reality where the numbers are actually true; political permutations and manipulations will ensure that identity politics will be a critical success factor for the incumbent or for those that want to upstage the incumbent in Nigeria at Presidential, State government, and even local government levels.

     Most times, for strategic or diplomatic reasons, we outwardly downplay the politics of identity only so as to give a sense of “unity and/ or “fairness” or maybe a sense of “justice. But the identity politics always manifests, especially buildup to and during elections, as it has been from time, only more so as the political evolution of Nigeria is becoming more and more complex rather than simplistic due to the failure of successive administrations to deliver the crucial political reforms and socio-economic development.

     Moreover, the politicians have recognized identity politics as a very important tool for electoral success, and political control, not just in Nigeria but in many countries across the world.

     Meanwhile, it is worthy of note that some countries like Singapore, Switzerland, etc., have achieved some level of political balance based on ideals like unity in diversity, properly domesticated political systems and structures, meritocracy, etc. Such achievements were also not without costly sacrifices that have remained indelible scars in their histories and evolution. While political idealism is more in the realm of theory; countries like Singapore and Rwanda has demonstrated that societies and countries can overcome identity politics and succeed. Therefore, it is essential that well-meaning and forward-thinking Nigerians should continue advocating for inclusivity, unity in diversity, proper domestication of political systems and structures that will suit our national peculiarities, meritocracy, etc., as the possible best ways forward.

     Way forward for Nigeria

    Change the Political system with a significant reduction of power from the center

    One of the best ways to dilute or neutralize the politics of identity in Nigeria is to change the political system and structure of the Country. Even though changing the political system and structure may not immediately eliminate identity politics, but it will certainly downplay it in the mid to long term, and will provide some level of balance in restructuring the political system of Nigeria from the current presidential system. This is because identity politics is even more pronounced at the local levels, and that is why thinking that we can wish away identity politics at the national level is only wishful thinking.

     In subsequent episodes of this Column, I will continue to espouse more with my views about identity politics, especially with regards to the 2027 general elections in Nigeria and some of the best ways to significantly downplay identity politics in Nigeria.

  • Rising insecurity and imperative of state police

    Rising insecurity and imperative of state police

    The resurgence of insecurity across the state of Nigeria, From Kebbi to Zamfara, to Katsina, to Niger and the recent unfortunate developments in Borno are very worrisome. Furthermore, insecurity has resurged in Plateau, and it is escalating in Benue. We are also witnessing pockets of insecurity in some parts of southern Nigeria. The unfolding scenarios have yet again brought the need for State Police to the front burner. For some of us who are proponents of state policing, I am again adding my voice to the need for this very important structural provision to be expedited and activated, as initiated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This very crucial requirement to bring about internal security in Nigeria should be fast-tracked as a matter of national priority. Undeniably, the number of boots on the ground of our armed forces across the strata and the services cannot, I repeat, cannot actually take up this insecurity effectively and efficiently, talkless of sustainability. As we all know, sustainability is key. The timeline that is required deal with legislation, activation of the policy and enhancement of national and state strategies, the hiring processes, indoctrination, tooling and kitting, salary and compensation package, welfare and assimilation of forces into the battlefield to make impacts are the reasons why State Police should be treated as a matter of a national emergency. States must immediately start strategic planning by recognizing that when and if the legislations are passed, they will be able to take necessary actions in their respective states and then hit the ground running to do all that is necessary to have internal security in their respective states as soon as possible. Meanwhile, I sense and note the concerns of Governors as they face the daunting task of providing security and safety for the people in their States, which is their core constitutional mandate.

     As it is today, the governors of the states of the Federal Republic of Nigeria are only chief security officers of their states on paper. There is little or nothing they can do without federal intervention. The governors are at the mercy of the availability of resources to be deployed to the States by the President of Nigeria. Indeed, where a President has other priorities, then there is another issue to be dealt with. The political considerations, which are also of concern to most well-meaning Nigerians, that governors will abuse State Police, have taken a back seat considering the importance and the criticality of enabling all the state governors to have the powers to protect their states against threats and dangers, including natural disasters. Therefore, I am reiterating the support of this laudable move for constitutional review to activate state policing. We can ensure that the issues of funding and the issues of the framework that would de-risk this very important requirement, insulate it from abuse, and also ensure that it is done in ways and manners that will actually serve the purposes for which it will be promulgated.

    Read Also: SEC warns Nigerians against suspected Ponzi scheme Tofro.com

     The issue of funding for Security, whereby some states are struggling to pay salaries, is a matter of fact. However, the recent disclosure by the Special Adviser to the President on Policy Communication, Mr. Daniel Bwala, that some state governor ares not effectively utilizing their huge security votes to tackle insecurity, has also thrown on the front burner a very a credible and worrisome scenario whereby, if governors are being stingy with the security votes by pinching money to security forces to deliver such crucial mandates at such a crucial time then we will have even bigger issues even with the State Policing in place, because indeed adequate funding is a critical success factor for effective and efficient defense and security. That is why we are advocating as a matter of priority to offload state policing on the laps of governors as a strategic way of pulling out the security vote monies out of the pockets of governors who are not ready to deploy the huge amounts of money allocated to security votes for the purpose that the money should serve, by hiding under the guise that it is Mr. President or the Federal Government that should provide security across Nigeria. Because with the State Police in place, the governors must utilize allocated funds to fund state policing. State policing cannot just be a mantra. When promulgated, it will not be the responsibility of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to make provision in the budget to support state policing. Accordingly, that will also put governors on their toes. And by that, Mr. President and Nigerians will also have the full right to challenge governors to do the needful.

     Indeed, if State Police is activated, the numbers of boots on the ground in the states that will providing those interventions will complement the boots on the ground at the federal level and allow the Nigerian Armed Forces, to refocus on their core mandates of providing territorial integrity, defending Nigerians and providing internal security Nigeria (in the case of the Nigerian Police Force). Of course, this change will be done in phases, such that the Nigerian armed forces will not immediately pull out of the states. The change-over will be part of the political of the overarching strategy of state policing that the governors I mean the armed forces will continue providing those support and intervention for a period of time after which they are weaned off the states and then there will be a layer as at whenever the federal interventions will be needed. But as the case is today, we are already in the second quarter of 2025, and the insecurity is escalating, negating all the laudable achievements of the administration, as it has done in previous administrations.

     If we don’t take the issue of State Police seriously and fast-track the process of legislation and have an executive process that will surely ensure expedient activation of this very crucial requirement to fight insecurity, Nigeria will be doomed. While we are at it, may I use this opportunity to again call on the federal government to significantly increase the number of armed forces boots on the ground. I know there has been an increase in the recruitment process of the Nigerian armed forces and the Nigerian police, but we need more troops in terms of the numbers and frequency of recruitment, training, kitting, indoctrination, salary and compensation package, welfare, and support after service. This is one of the most important imperatives required to beat the curve of the insurgents and to fight this highly fluid, volatile, guerrilla warfare with the insurgents and the terrorists.

     The Nigerian Armed Forces are performing exceptionally well given the resources available to them and the circumstances they find themselves in. However, it is an asymmetrical war that is almost becoming symmetrical. Because the terrorists are gaining ground. They are reviewing their strategy. They are getting more resources and logistical support for their onslaught in comparison to the Nigerian armed forces. This should be a food for thought for any well-meaning Nigerian. Indeed, the issue of homeland and national security is the core responsibility of governments at the federal and state levels. But it is also the responsibility of all Nigerians to support national security, because, together we stand on this and divided we will fall. This matter is beyond political affiliations, religious divisions, or ethnic sentiments. Therefore, I urge all of us to look at it from a unified lens and break the barriers of politics, ethnicity, and parochial sentiments to deal with this cankerworm. Definitely, terrorism does not recognize ethnicity, religion, tribal, or political sentiments. We are all victims of the situation. We are all faced with this multidimensional challenge, and I urge all stakeholders to move with the speed of light to dispense with this issue.

     When State Policing is promulgated, Nigerians will hold the governors to account to deliver their mandate. But I dare say again, the legislation should provide buffers and provisos to ensure that state governors who want to become emperors do not misuse the opportunity, and plunge their States and Nigeria at large.

     May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Increased telecoms tariffs and inconsistent quality service

    Increased telecoms tariffs and inconsistent quality service

    Four months ago (in January 2025), the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) approved a significant telecom tariff of 50%, which was implemented on 11th February, 2025. Some of the justifications given for the decision were due to rising inflation and foreign exchange volatility, resulting in higher operational costs for telecom operators. The objective of the approval of the increase is to ensure the sustainability of the industry. Accordingly, the NCC mandated that telecommunication companies (telcos) must improve their network quality within three months, with intensified scrutiny and heavier penalties for non-compliance. This condition was part of the tariff increase approval process. Consequently, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) insists that the “telecom tariff increase must result in significant service improvements”. Furthermore, the FCCPC and NCC signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to ensure robust consumer protection, fair competition, and the eradication of exploitative practices in the telecommunications sector.

     Nigerians and other telco customers have accepted the increase in telecommunications tariffs on calls and data. This is despite initial resistance by a lot of Nigerians and also the Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC), who at one point threatened to go on strike if the telecommunication companies did not return to old tariffs.

     However, while some of us were not against the increase in the telecommunications tariff, I believe that the very important issue of quality service delivery and actual value for money should have been the issue on the front burner. As it is, call drops, poor data connections, and incessant network downtime are continuing, without tangible sanctions or pay back to telco customers for call drops or data loss. Consequently, Nigerians lose Billions of Naira daily due to call drops, poor call or poor data network quality, and outright network downtimes without consequences.  These are the critical issues that I expect the NLC and all telco customers to focus on and push back on because telecommunication companies are not taking responsibility for service failures. This should no longer be acceptable!

     Nigerians should not be made to continue losing money without remediation or explanation by the service providers or the regulators as to why things should continue this way. This should no longer be acceptable, given the justification given to stakeholders in support of the increase in telco tariffs. If nothing is done by the relevant agencies of Government, i.e. Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCP), Nigerians will continue losing money with the attendant socio-economic impacts because life is almost now entirely dependent on telecommunication whether it is security economy, business, health, social activities, etc.

    Read Also: Nigerian women date for survival, not romance – Erigga claims

     It is a fact that for about twelve years, the telecommunication companies did not increase their call and data tariffs. It is a fact that Nigerians have been facing brutal socioeconomic conditions, which have escalated in the last ten years. But suffice it to say that the latest increase in the tariff is huge. So, on one side, the telecommunication companies may say that the increase in tariffs is justifiable. However, the increase in the cost of living and the cost of doing business in Nigeria have affected all businesses, not just telcos. Of course, the cost of Diesel and other forms of alternative power, the cost of providing security to telecommunications base stations and other sites all add to the operational costs of telcos. However, the question is: “Over the years, have Nigerians been really getting actual value for the money they pay for the communication services (calls and data)? We all know that the service qualities we get from all the service providers, vis-à-vis the costs of data, are not up to par.

     In my view, and most Nigerians will agree with me, the service providers are making a lot of money on data without an empirical commensurate value to customers in terms of the quality of service, and also in terms of the throughput that customers should get. For example, if a person or business pays for 1GB of data, will they get the actual value for the money they pay for 1GB of data? And/ or if there are incessant downtimes or poor quality of service, are there remediations to cover for the poor service delivery, apart from periodic apologies? Indeed, the service providers will not accept apologies for even 1 Kobo less of the money for whatever service they provide!

     Therefore, NCC, FCCPC, the organized labor, civic society, consumer forums, and citizens should be more proactive in engaging the telecommunication companies to ensure that they provide services in Nigeria in line with best practices. So, I think there is a need to step up surveillance of service quality and consistent engagement to achieve best practices and outcomes. There is also a need for improved regulation enforcement. This is especially so given the fact that all the telecommunication companies have been making the highest revenue and profits in Nigeria, above and beyond other countries that they operate in on the entire African continent in the past 25 years. This is also even while taking cognizance of the income downturn they experienced last year or 2. Indeed, the over 20 years that they have been posting Billions of US Dollars in profit over-compensate the short-term losses. I therefore urge all the relevant regulatory institutions to do the needful, particularly in the area of the quality of service, and remediation upon failure. By the way, I wonder if we have empirical ways to determine that everybody is getting value for their money for the telecommunication services.

     In fairness to the telcos, we know that they’ve been making losses recently due to increased cost of operations, as I mentioned earlier, but having been allowed to increase the tariffs, they have no excuse for providing sustained, inconsistent service quality. My advice to the NLC and other advocacy groups is that while the conversation is going on, the focus should be on the quality of service we are getting, on data, and on calls. Key areas to clarify should include: “What are the values we are getting for each service. I believe that remediations should be given by the service provider and/ or penalties should be imposed on the service provider for poor service, as some of the ways to ensure that customers get the best value for money. Customers have the right to challenge the telcos through the appropriate mechanisms/ channels if they don’t deliver value as promised. Customers also have the right to put the NCC and FCCPC on their toes to ensure that when we pay N100 Naira for a call or data we get value for our N20 Naira.

  • Rising insecurity is not about ethnicity, religion

    Rising insecurity is not about ethnicity, religion

    In the last couple of months, the insecurity in Northern Nigeria has resurged and increased across the North Eastern, North Western, and North Central regions of Nigeria. This situation is evident with the recent onslaught by the Lakurawa terrorists that killed and injured people and robbed and destroyed properties in Kebbi and Zamfara States, some attacks and destruction in Katsina and Niger States, and the re-appearance of Boko Haram in Borno State. The resurgence of Boko Haram in Borno State resulted in the outcry last week by the Executive Governor of Borno State, Professor Babagana Zulum, raising concern with regards to this ugly development and calling on the federal government to make sure that we don’t lose in the war against terrorism.

     The resurgence of killings in Plateau State adds to the worry lines on the faces of Nigerians and adds another layer of concern and responsibility on the state and federal governments in Nigeria to contain this dangerous situation that is becoming combustible on the Plateau. The recent horrible killings and destruction of properties in Bokkos and Bassa Local Government Area (LGAs), which have spread to other LGAs like Kanam and Wase, require a serious review and quick action. There is a need for serious and sustained interventions. Just 48 hours ago, 11 people were killed in Otukpo LGA in Benue State. The extrajudicial killing of some hunters from Kano State in the Uromi LGA of Edo State was less than a month ago. The laudable achievements made so far since the commencement of President Bola Tinubu’s administration with regard to the war against terrorism and insurgency are not lost within these two years.  However, as we approach the second-year milestone of this administration, it is imperative that all hands are on deck to efficiently and effectively tackle insecurity in Nigeria.

     I use this opportunity to commiserate with the families of all those who have lost their loved ones and properties in all the states where these horrible situations are happening. I also commiserate with those who are injured and those who have lost their properties. I pray that Almighty Allah SWT will repose the souls of all those who have been murdered in cold blood in all situations across this country. 

     I commend the Governor of Borno State, His Excellency Governor Zulum, and the Governor of Plateau State, His Excellency Governor Caleb Mutfwang, based on the way and manner they consistently stay on top of situations in their respective States, recognizing the enormity of the challenges of this hydra-headed monster of insecurity in Nigeria. While I consider Governor Zulum the most proactive, brave, and consistent Governor in Nigeria, given the sustained onslaught of terrorists since he assumed office 6 years ago, I also commend Governor Mufuwang’s high level of emotional intelligence at such a crucial moment.

     The resurgence of insecurity is happening at a crucial time when the rainy season has commenced, with the early warning systems of flooding that will occur due to projected heavy rains. The situation in Borno State is clearly the resurgence of Boko Haram with the return of the use of IEDs, attacks on our military personnel, etc. I use this opportunity to also commiserate with the Nigerian armed forces for the loss of gallant soldiers on the battlefield. The ultimate prices that these patriotic Nigerians and their families are paying require deep introspection to contain this situation. We are losing critical national assets in terms of hardware, man, and material. This is happening at a time when the numbers of men and material in the armed forces are so meagre that losing even one soldier every day is a big blow to our armed forces and our Country. I do hope that there is to address the unravelling scenario.

     It is my opinion, that the lull in attacks by terrorist and kidnappers that the we experience from time to time in Nigeria, is part of the strategy of the terrorists to take tactical retreats, which the States and Country consider as quick wins, and rightly so, albeit, the terrorists actually retreat so as to regroup and return; which is one of many guerrilla warfare tactics that the Boko Haram insurgents, ISIS, ISIL, Lakurawa, etc. use to rest their troops, heal their wounded, retool, restock food, medical supplies, weapons, etc. They also retreat so as to re-energize/ re-align their logistics and supply chains and essentially re-strategize when necessary. This is a critical point that we should note. Therefore, I strongly advise that anytime there is a lull, we should consolidate our positions and also retool, re-kit, and upstage our resources and capacities to ensure that when the terrorists regroup, we don’t lose the ground we have gained. Consistency and sustainability are critical success factors.

     While ethnic and religious sentiments are key root causes of crises across Nigeria, it is also important to note that another critical cause of insecurity in Nigeria, as it is globally, is economic objective, which I term “economic terrorism”.  Therefore, the trend of always giving religious or ethnic connotations to the crisis on the plateau, for example, in my own humble view, is a huge mistake. I think we should expand our views and mindsets beyond ethnic and religious connotations. The concern that some well-meaning Nigerians have been raising is that we should be wary of giving all attacks, religious and ethnic connotations, lest we run into the trap of the perpetrators of this evil of multidimensional terrorism. I share the view that those terrorists are not actually religious or ethnic bigots; they are economic saboteurs and terror merchants who hide under the guise of religion or ethnicity as part of a “divide and conquer” strategy. For example, they could sometimes attack the Fulanis and their Cattle pretending to be other tribes, and then attack the Fulanis pretending to be other tribes, thereby pitching communities and tribes against each other to create a situation for plunder in the midst of the crisis. This is an age-old war strategy.

     From my experience of that terrain (North West, North East, and North Central), most of the crises are about the mineral resources in the region, and this has been happening for over 30 year. It is also important to note that various leaders and citizens of the various localities know where and when the economic sabotage is taking place, but they mostly looked away or pretended not to know. This is because they are either benefiting, or out of fear for their lives and the lives of their families.  The methodology of economic saboteurs and resource plunderers is very simple. They come, they cause distress, they scatter the place, and they take control, then continue plundering as the situations get worse. What better way for them to perpetuate their evil projects than to perpetrate religious and ethnic crises in a location that is sensitive to these issues, like Plateau State, for example.

     I am therefore sounding a strong word of caution in alliance with the position of His Excellency, Governor Caleb Mutfwang, that we must approach the issue in Plateau State and indeed other States, with a strategic mindset, to note that the issue is beyond ethnic and religious sentiments. Because when the terrorists attack or kidnap or kill or maim, they don’t ask for the tribal or religious identity of the victims. They don’t care what tribe or religion the victims are.

     To those who are trying to use the crises to score cheap political points, I say to them that it is not the fault of a particular administration. This is a long-standing issue, and Nigerians should rise above political, religious, or ethnic sentiments to score cheap political points. Of course, to whom much is given, much is expected and therefore I totally agree that we must remain consistent in constructively engaging incumbent administrations to deliver their mandates

     Importantly, political leaders should deliver their promise of good governance to citizens. Multidimensional poverty remains a critical divisive force and tool for terrorists to indoctrinate and radicalize our teeming, frustrated youths, especially when they are failed by their leaders.

     Furthermore, there should be a nationwide enlightenment campaign to bring to the attention of the citizenry the evil plot by these economic plunderers and their co-travelers within the establishment and the support they get from outside Nigeria. Based on what we have witnessed in the past years, there has been the involvement of some bad politicians, traditional rulers, and also some bad members of the armed forces. The approach should be holistic in trying to ensure that we get to the roots of the issues with a view to tackling the issues. Unless we rise above parochialism, ethnic and religious bigotry, and deal with corruption and bad governance, we will not defeat the hydra-headed monster of insecurity in Nigeria.

     The leaders of Nigeria, across all strata, all have a duty to work lockstep in the same direction for a better Nigeria. There can only be opposition figures and political parties if there is a united and prosperous Nigeria. There can only be sustainability of power of incumbency if there is a united and prosperous Nigeria. Indeed, there can only be Nigerians if there is a united and prosperous Nigeria. I hope this will sink in for all concerned.

     May Almighty God continue to Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Could Trump’s Tariff put world in reverse gear?

    Could Trump’s Tariff put world in reverse gear?

    In the past couple of months, since the inauguration of President Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States of America (US), the world braced itself to the rhetoric of tariffs war that heralded the beginning of the Trump 2.0 administration. Subsequently, some days ago, President Trump converted rhetoric to action by rolling out a series of “reciprocal tariffs” across the globe, from the US neighbors, i.e. Mexico, Canada, Colombia, to the European Union Countries, and the United Kingdom, and more pointedly he placed the highest tariffs on China. President Trump did not spare US allies in the European Union, the Middle East, and Far East, including Jordan, India, Japan, and South Korea, who have shown unalloyed support for the US and also for President Trump over time.

     Trump is basically emulating the pre-2nd World War (WW2) global trade order, which became the precursor to WW2. With this dramatic trade tariff shift by the US, President Trump has triggered a global trade and investment disruption that will most likely reset global trade dynamics with concomitant effects on global supply chains, geopolitical, and socio-economic consequences.

     President Trump has basically gone to war with the world with his tariff offensive. Suffice it to say that President Trump stratified the various tariffs, which, according to him, are based on the reciprocity of the level of tariff, i.e., trade deficit or trade surplus as the case may be, between the US and other Countries. Of course, the understanding of trade deficit or trade surplus depends on how one sees the cup, “half full or half empty.”. Indeed, it appears that President Trump’s basis for going on with this tariff war is particularly based on the balance of trade of products, while ignoring the fact that there is a key component of global trade, which is “services”. The United States of America is the leading global beneficiary of global services trade, in which it is always in surplus to other Countries, and yet no Country has taken any adverse role against the US.

    Read Also: Court affirms Egwu PDP Southeast NVC, restrains Odefa from parading self

     The scale and scope of the tariff is sweeping, even to the awe of some US citizens, including the US Congress, as they try to fathom how to proceed with the unravelling scenarios. This is especially so given that President Trump is using Executive Orders, thereby bypassing the constitutional requirement of legislation that should back such a far-reaching national economic policy. In the past couple of days, there have been protests by tens of thousands of citizens of the US, across almost all the States of the US, against President Trump’s Tariff policy

     Can tariffs really make America great again?

    There is a global consensus by economists, political strategists, and other thought leaders across the board that “in tariff wars there are no winners”. Already, the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has stated that the US-China tariff war could slash global trade by 80%, especially given that the US and China (the two biggest economies in the world) account for 3% of world trade.  The DG, WTO also projected a 7% contraction of global GDP in 2025 based on Trump’s Tariff onslaught, which will essentially plunge the entire world into recession. This is in addition to other geo-political, environmental, and climate change dynamics that are already impacting the world in ways not experienced in recent human history.  Dr. Iweala’s position resonates with other global institutions like the World Bank, IMF, JP Morgan, etc. Indeed, this tariff war will also not be beneficial to the US, especially its citizens. The US stock market, as well as stock markets across Europe and the Far East, were plunging due to the uncertainties occasioned by this development.

     Within two days, the US Stock Market recorded the worst two days in US stock market history, when it lost about $6.6 trillion in value. The self-inflicted wounds are just the beginning. Critical stakeholders, including US businesses and economists, are raising concerns about the potential devastating impacts of the tariffs on jobs, including US jobs. For example, the American Soybean Association, through its President, Mr. Caleb Ragland, is already raising concerns that the tariff war will impact their market share and profitability.

     The US will certainly not be insulated from this tariff war, and the biggest victims of this tariff war will most likely be the US citizens.

     Canada Stands up to the Tariff War

    Canada has been consistently assertive on its readiness to counter all tariff escalations by President Trump, which is concerning given the close affinity and strong trade ties between the US and Canada before Trump 2.0.

     EU Finally Takes a Position

    Leaders of Europe, like the Danish Prime Minister, the UK Prime Minister, the outgoing and incoming German Chancellors, the President of France, and others have been taking hardline positions against the tariffs.  Two days ago, the EU countries reluctantly decided to implement countermeasures against Trump’s Tariffs by taking a position to apply a 25% tariff on the US, which could impact about 13.3 billion US Dollars’ worth of exports, with effect from the 15th of April, 2025. From the tariff framework of the EU, the tactic would particularly impact some US states that produce soybeans, Poultry, and motorcycles, which are among US’s major exports.

     However, the EU has suspended the countermeasures as Trump pauses the Tariff for 90 days. It is possible that President Trump is beginning to contemplate the consequences of his decision. Meanwhile, global markets immediately rose in response to the tariff pause, notwithstanding the uncertainties that continue.

     Trade dynamics will shift Eastwards

    Naturally, President Trump’s policy is redirecting global trade traffic from West to East. This is because President Trump has triggered a domino effect that could change the world trade order. Indeed, we have seen the overt and sublime shift of trade gears from West to East as the key drivers of trade, i.e., materials availability, cost, and availability of technology like AI, cost of production, more acceptable terms and conditions of trade, etc., will result in shifting alliances. The hostile rhetoric and actions of President Trump, including the Tariff slaps, will certainly cause forward-thinking countries to recalibrate their strategies to have a plan B and plan C, etc., at least for the next four years that Donald Trump will be in power.

     Accordingly, this could be the beginning of the end of West post-war globalization and the emergence of a new world trade order tilted more towards the East with better economic shock absorbers. Trump is overestimating his ability to maintain a chokehold on the world

     Some countries are already establishing free trade zones as safe trade (win-win-win) corridors

     China’s Response

    Expectedly, President Trump has made China the focal point of his global tariff war, Obviously, President Trump’s intention is to squeeze China into submission. But China has been preparing for Trump’s tariff war as it has been taking countermeasures to have economic shock absorbers in place to be able to weather the storm. China’s leadership has stated clearly that China will fight the tariff war to the finish, as can be seen by the retaliatory 84% Tariff in response to President Trump’s increase of China’s tariff to 145% three days ago.

     The days ahead are bleak for consumers of goods and services around the world, including US citizens who will feel the effects of the tariff in their pockets and livelihoods as an increase in inflation is imminent. Already one of Trump’s allies, Billionaire Elon Musk, has made a tacit cautionary remark about the need for a global free trade framework rather than the tariff war. It goes without too much saying that the tariff war will certainly backfire on the US. According to a US former Treasury Secretary, “the US is likely to slip into recession due to escalating tariffs – potentially costing 2 million jobs nationwide”, in the US. If that happens, it will be devastating for US economy.

      How ready is Africa?

    President Trump’s trade war is yet another wake-up call to Africans and their leaders to step up and face their realities. The withdrawal of aid by President Trump and the trade war will be a blessing to Africa when we step up the quality of governance across Africa. The beggarly way with which African Countries conduct themselves across strata of leadership and value chains, i.e., geo politics, resources management, economic growth and development, human capital and social development, security and safety, etc. MUST CHANGE and be undertaken from sovereign and strategic positions. WE MUST CHANGE OUR MINDSETS. We should not be crying as “victims” forever lest we remain the victims of our own actions or inactions forever.

     African Countries MUST address the fundamental issues of critical infrastructure deficit in terms of energy/power, and intermodal transportation, which are linked to energy as well. We must not just be productive, we must be competitive and self-sustainable. We must also deal with corruption. This sounds like a cliché, but that is the only way to prosperity.

     In conclusion, effectively and successfully navigating and outmaneuvering Trump 2.0 Tariffs strategy will be a function of building internal reliance and re-aligning global partnerships.

  • Some notes on emergency rule in Rivers State

    Some notes on emergency rule in Rivers State

    Those who foolishly sought power by riding on the back of a Tiger, will end up inside it” … John F. Kennedy, the 35th President of the United States of America

    In my view, His Excellency, the Governor of Rivers State, Mr. Similayi Fubara, made a strategic mistake when he triggered a situation that culminated in the political logjam. I am saying this because, whether we like it or not, Governor Fubara is a political godson of former Governor and current Honorable Minister of Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria (FCT), Barrister Nynesom Wike. We should also recall that in the build-up to the 20203 elections, Governor Fubara who was then the Accountant General of Rivers State, as an appointee of Governor Wike, was playing the “cat and mouse” game with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), whereby he was being investigated for some allegations of financial crimes; and from available information in the media, the then Governor Wike was giving Fubara political cover. Ironically, how the relationship between the godson and his godfather melted down is a function of how Governor Fubara was not able to apply emotional intelligence and political strategy to manage his boss and political godfather for the long game.

     Being a man who appointed him as the Accountant General of River State from the position and having worked with him for over 4 years, those years as one of his key allies and right-hand men, Governor Fubara should have understood the personality type and temperament of his boss. The fact that the then Governor Wike, in 2023, ensured the emergence of Mr. Fubara as the PDP Gubernatorial candidate for Rivers State against all odds, should have also been a food for thought for Governor Fubara. This is notwithstanding the fact that Mr. Wike was also supported into Government by someone else. But that should not be the reason why Governor Fubara should have played the same template that Governor Wike played. There is a Hausa proverb that says, “Where someone goes to dance and he is given money, if another person goes to dance in the same place, he will be beaten up”. In other words, “different strokes for different folks”. Therefore, Governor Fubara should have been more circumspect of his understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of his boss as well as the threat that his political godfather could pose to his tenure as Governor, and as such, he could have mapped out a better political survival strategy ab initio.

    Read Also: Akpabio not aware of planned rally in Akwa Ibom, says aide

    Now, I am not excusing Governor Wike for lack of patience or lack of introspection. But in my own humble view, the heap of the responsibility of patience and wisdom is more on Governor Fubara than Governor Wike. Indeed, for the cheerleaders of Governor Fubara, they did not help Governor Fubara from a strategic perspective to recognize that much as he is in a hurry to wean himself off his political godfather and mentor, and be independent; detaching himself from his political godfather should have been done strategically with a long-term vision in mind. After all Governor Fubara would have been naïve or reckless (I say this with all due respect) to have assumed that such political patronage was coming to him freely at no cost (whether he remained loyal to Minister Wike or not). By cost, I am not basically talking about financial cost, but including social and political implications. 

    Therefore, the decision of Governor Fubara to take up his former boss should have been made with a sense of history and a sense of reality. Governor Fubara knows that even in other climes, not in Nigeria, it is certainly a Herculean task for one to detach himself/ herself from his political godfather/ mentor, especially when the political father is responsible for his ascension into office in the way and manner that it mostly happens in Nigeria. Otherwise, the best play would have been for Governor Fubara to have gone to seek the Governorship on his own, get a nomination of the PDP or other political parties, and fund his campaign and work to win his election. For example, how President William Ruto was able to detach himself from President Uhuru Kenyatta to stand on his own, build a political movement, and win elections against the odds of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his power of incumbency in 2022.

     Furthermore, from a logical perspective, he who goes for equity should go with clean hands. It was not strategic for Governor Fubara to have immediately taken his boss head-on less than 2 months after he succeeded his boss, Minister Wike. Knowing the kind of person Governor Wike is – a dogged, determined, unforgiving, highly resourceful, and strategic man- the question is, was Governor Fubara suddenly realizing who Governor Wike is after he accepted and benefited from all the opportunities given to him by Governor Wike? How come Governor Fubara could not work with or manage Governor Wike even if it is one more year or 1 term for him to gather his senses of reasoning, logic and direction for him to be able to reposition himself, even if he wants to upstage his boss – which in my opinion is going to be a tall order.  Clearly, Governor Fubara fell into the trappings of his ego and what I call the allure of “political cheerleaders” who hide under the disguise of fighting for the betterment of River State (while using Governor Fubara as a Cannon Fodder for their individual and collective fights against Minister Wike) and pushed him into the pit of fight with his political godfather and now we have a political cul-de-sac in Rivers State.

     It would have been more politically expedient for Governor Fubara to have played the long game. I can give instances of case studies as follows: the former Governor of Kano State, and current national Chairman of APC, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and his hitherto political leader, former Governor of Kano State, Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso. Dr. Ganduje didn’t start fighting his former boss. He took his time and mapped out his strategy, the inevitable fall-out that ensured. That way, Dr. Ganduje is able to survive his two terms in office and extend his political relevance to the national level. We also have the case of the first executive Governor of Kano State (from 1979 to 1983), late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, and his then political godfather, late Mallam Aminu Kano. When late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi realized that there is no way he could upstage his political godfather in Kano  State and within the political party of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) at that time, towards the end of his first tenure, build up to the 1983, he decided at to resign from the PRP and decamped to Nigeria’s Peoples Party (NPP) and contest the elections for his second term (not at the beginning) as Governor of kano state which he failed albeit he was able to safe face to have more better political survival (having created the “Santsi” movement even within the PRP). That was a neater clean cut out than what Governor Fubara is doing. Indeed, even late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi ended that political stage of his political career with political scars. In the case of the former Governor of Oyo State, Dr. Rasheed Ladoja versus his hitherto political leader, late Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu; Alhaji Rasheed Ladoja took a little bit more time before he reacted against late Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu. The rest is history because indeed at the end of that saga, even though Alhaji Rashed Ladoja was impeached and the Supreme Court returned him, he could not get a second term, and since then he has never returned to political reckoning at the state and national level in the past 18 years. My point is, Fubara should have been more circumspect in managing his boss over and beyond the cheerleaders who were hitherto even against him during the build-up for his gubernatorial campaign in Rivers State, where some of the people claimed that he didn’t even win the election, that the election was rigged in his favor. And then suddenly some of them have come to his side, nudging him and kneading him, and now they cannot help him.

     In this write-up, my objective is not to be politically correct, but to be practical in the circumstance and for us to look at how we get to where we are today with a view to understanding the political dynamics and the potential outcomes of taking such positions.

     So, going forward, political actors should think deeply when they are offered opportunities to aspire for public or political office so as to decide whether they are ready to go for the long run or if they want to test their political sagacity to go on their own without the so-called political godfathers.  Otherwise, by taking the mouthwatering offer of political office by playing rodeo on the back of a tiger, thinking that you can outsmart the tiger, will be at your own peril!

     My hope is that in the end, this political logjam will be in the overall interest of the people of River State, and it will be a lesson to all of us. Because in the end, no matter how badly they fight, politicians always ultimately settle somehow, somewhere, someday.

  • Opposition leaders should stop wishing away Tinubu

    Opposition leaders should stop wishing away Tinubu

    As we approach the midterm of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tenure in office, some very important and notable opposition political parties and leaders have started attempting to put their parties in order as they prepare for alignments, build-up to the 2027 Presidential elections. This is a natural tendency during the midterm of any administration globally. Consciously or subconsciously, the crucial players have started positioning, posturing, and strategizing. So, you can say that the organic political movement towards 2027 has begun. How the movement will evolve and make the requisite impact, i.e. upstaging the incumbent, whether it is the President or the State Governors, is what remains to be seen. In my view, the opposition parties are mostly currently in tatters, due largely to the lack of internal democracy, which is basically destroying the structures of the parties. It is also true the APC has its own internal crisis (particularly at some State levels). But suffice it to say that the APC is on “high grounds” due to the power of incumbency, So, the APC is so far able to manage its crisis better.

     However, when I sit with a strategic thinking cap for the opposition, they are on “low grounds”, if you are looking at a war games scenario. Therefore, the opposition parties at this point in time should be united, consolidated, and more importantly, to demonstrate to Nigerians that they are the credible and veritable alternative. Indeed, if opposition parties have internal crises, they are unable to resolve them. Indeed, if you have presidential candidates who cannot be able to apply political sagacity and political dexterity to unify their parties. Indeed, if they cannot apply political strategy to hedge against the incursion of the ruling party, whether subliminally or directly, covertly or overtly, then what I will ask myself is, do they really have the capacity to effectively and successfully manage a diverse and highly polarized Country like Nigeria with the inherent political, social and economic challenges? Just like we have witnessed time and time again, some politicians say they can bring us all the goodies of democracy and good governance, but when they take over power, the delivery of what they promise becomes a problem. So, what I am concerned about for the opposition is that you have, the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, in the person of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu – a tested opposition political figure who has become a President. Like him, or hate him, you cannot wish President Tinubu away. He is a political colossus, and he currently has the instruments of office. Therefore, the opposition politicians should stop wishing away President Tinubu. It is by strategy, hard work, consistency, perseverance, and discipline that they can become formidable; just like President Tinubu did during his hay days as a fiery, consistent, and effective opposition figure in the political history of Nigeria. How the other political colossuses and gladiators in Nigeria are able to learn from the past and strategize, re-organize, coordinate, and consolidate themselves and their political parties, such that they can give Nigerians a veritable alternative is crucial to their success. After all, in the last 25 years, almost every leading politician has been into one incumbent political party or another opposition political party. Hence, the question is, what is the ideology? What are the principles? And what are the actual interests? Are they for Nigeria or for personal interests?

     Recently, there have been a lot of movements in the Social Democratic Party (SDP), with the likes of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the former Governor of Kaduna State leading the defection movements. Assuming a coalition does materialize, because according to the calculations of some people, the SDP appears to be a cohesive party at the moment. If you ask me, I don’t know how cohesive the SDP is, because it is early days yet, especially given that the SDP is a legacy Party. I wonder if the SDP will rise from its ashes like a phoenix and become a formidable political party. That remains to be seen, as the party has not had major impacts in the 25 years of the 4th Republic, especially during presidential contests. As it is, it seems as if some of the key political gladiators that are moving into SDP presumably have presidential aspirations, including the former presidential candidate of the SDP in the 2023 Presidential elections, i.e. Barrister Adewole Adebayo. He is still very much the party, and he has recently re-iterated his intention to contest to be the President of Nigeria in 2027. Having said that, in my opinion, the reason for the coalition or alliance may be the reason why the coalition will fail. Because the inordinate ambition of some key political leaders in Nigeria may thwart the substance of the opposition parties and figures from achieving their objectives.

     By the way, as a Nigerian and as a northerner, I am saying that in the interest of fairness, equity, and justice, if we don’t want to turn this country into a joke, we should align with the principles of power shift, i.e. let us allow the Southern part of Nigeria to hold on to the presidency of this country for the remaining four years after 2027. That is the way that will demonstrate seriousness for the unity, equity, and justice of the forward-thinking movement of Nigeria. The point is, we must start making those sure-footed movements in a direction, as a country. Now, coming back to the coalition, in my own opinion, I am already isolating the northern political leaders, and I am saying this with all profound respect to them, without demeaning their fundamental rights to aspire to any office in Nigeria. For instance, to say, as the elder statesmen they will practice what they preach, and allow the South to have a four-year run. Post-2027 while they prepare for 2031.

    Read Also: Nigerian Idol return for season 10 as Iyanya joins judges

     What I believe is that all political leaders in Nigeria do not have to be the President of the Country before we can add critical values. What is important is to identify the right people with the right credentials, competencies, capacities, and credibility to efficiently, effectively, and successfully lead this country in the right way; whether Muslim or Christian or whatever because indeed each one of us is adding value to the progress of Nigeria. When it comes to coalition, they need to identify common denominator issues and deal with them. Otherwise, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will have what they call in football a “work over” (easy win) in the 2027 Presidential elections. This is because the same scenario that played out in 2023 will play out. Already we are hearing snippets that the National Secretary of the SDP is already voicing out concerns that possibly some power brokers are already trying to take his position of National Secretary in the party. Now, if that is the case, the cracks are already forming around this fragile pot before it is heated up enough to accommodate the very hot and fluid contestations it will have to contain.

     We are already in the midterm, and I was expecting re-alignments by the opposition parties that are happening now to have started earlier, so as to apply the pressures for critical reforms to happen to our electoral and judicial processes and systems, which are amongst the critical success factors for the opposition parties, for the incumbent, and for all Nigerians. All of the body movements and emotions flying high will amount to nothing if we do not have a process that will be transparent and will have the credibility to get accepted by the people of Nigeria and the international community. Consequently, it is not just about opposition leaders and parties labeling the APC as this and that. It is a national culture that needs to be dealt with. As I said earlier if opposition parties are not able to put their houses in order, doing something as simple as adhering to their political parties’ constitutions and having internal democracies; then they will not inspire confidence that some of the opposition political parties will be able to evolve and bring the changes.  As I always said, Nigerian politicians are the same actors in different costumes! Unless we change that mindset, they will continue to sell us the dummies. After all, some politicians who campaigned and told us just two years ago, that President Tinubu is the Messiah, are now telling tongue in cheek, telling us that he is a failure.

     Building up to 2027, improvements in political, electoral, and judicial processes are crucial because they will be the precursor for the improvements in the quality of the recruitment processes in Nigeria.

     In conclusion, Nigerians should recognize that the politicians alone will not bring the change that we want. It is we, the citizens who will wake up and take our individual and collective destinies in our hands and decide how we want to shape our Country. This is because all the politicians eat from the same pot, sit on the same boards, inter-marry, and in the end shake hands and hug each other no matter what. That should be food for thought.