The Nation Newspaper

Category: Baba Yusuf

  • As AU plans AI deployment for peace, development

    As AU plans AI deployment for peace, development

    As the African Union (AU) commissioned its Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy around July last year (2024), and with the setup of an AU Advisory Group on AI by the AU Peace and Security Council also in June last year, it appears Africa is yet again playing catch-up. But, as the saying goes, “it’s better late than never”. The Continental Artificial Intelligence Strategy for Africa is properly crafted and implemented, and it will catalyze the transformation of Africa in the short to midterm and the achievement of the Africa Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Some of the key focus areas for the delivery of this project include entrenchment of democratic values, principles, and practices in politics; achievement of a capable institutional framework for leadership to be in place; achievement of peace, security, and stability for Africa, and more.

     How ready is Africa?

    To understand where we are in the global paradigm of AI, recall that about 3 months ago (in January 2025), when President Donald Trump was sworn in, within 24 hours, President Trump had secured over 500 billion US Dollars for AI infrastructure development in the United States of America. two days ago, during the biggest annual legislative strategy session for China, chaired by President Xi Jinping, to craft the 2025 strategy, the meeting deliberated extensively on AI and big data as one of the key policy directions. This will be China’s 15th five-year strategic blueprint (you can imagine how far they have come on AI). India has already done its own AI strategy since around 2018. So, this is where forward-thinking Countries are in terms of the conceptualization of the AI strategy, implementation, and impacts relative to where we are in Africa.

     The Continental AI strategy for Africa has a 5 years implementation plan. But suffice it to say that some of the critical priority areas that must be addressed before the AI strategy can work include critical infrastructure, the political structures across the continent, and the political will of African leaders. The rhetorical question is, “Do we have the political structures and the governance framework that will enable achievement of those strategic visions and objectives at a time when fragmentation is the order of the day across the world?”.  Specifically, in the case of Africa, there are conflicts across the Sahel, in Eastern Africa, specifically in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sudan, and South Sudan. We are witnessing the fragmentation of ECOWAS with the latest development in Guinea-Bissau, where President Umaru Sissoco Embalo, is threatening to pull out of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). There has to be a unified approach to the AI strategy. It should be aligned to individual and continental aspirations or initiatives. Consequently, we have a lot of work to do in Africa. More importantly, it is how the leaders of the countries of Africa will ultimately harness AI to deliver good governance to the over 1.2 billion citizens of the continent, whereas we have issues of getting leaders of most Countries to practice real democracy or apply a good governance framework to the betterment of their citizens. Over 60 years or less since independence, the majority of African Countries are still grappling with the provision of basic amenities like clean drinking water, steady electricity, education, security, free, fair, and credible elections, etc. Therefore, while the AI Strategy is a welcome development, it is important for us to note that the foundations and building blocks of our Countries and Continent are fundamental to the success of the Continental AI Strategy.

     There is a governance and regulatory framework in place for the execution of the AI strategy. How the respective countries key their strategy into the overarching continental strategy is the first step in the right direction. And how they are able to address the concerns of ethics and regulation of AI, especially when we already have the critical infrastructural deficit, and data integrity is very important. This is because the crucial data that will be used to populate the framework of AI are actually data that Africa mostly relies on the West or the Far East to give us, to leverage. Generating our own homegrown crucial and credible data that is very important; because in Africa, we put more “face value” on our data rather than looking at our realities and using the real critical data, and that is where and why we mostly lean on the data that are coming from countries or continents that may not like the data to be in line with our current realities for their own strategic objectives.

     Interestingly, Nigeria already has a national artificial intelligence strategy that was formulated by the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) and domiciled in one of its Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) – the National Center for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (NCAIR). South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and some other Countries in Africa have crafted or are crafting their AI strategies and policies. 2025 to 2026 is the timeline for all the Countries in Africa to craft their AI strategy as part of “phase-1” of the implementation plan of the Africa continental AI strategy.

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     Critical infrastructure Deficit must be addressed

    AI has come to stay. However, while we are plugging into AI, is energy/ electricity supply available, steady, or sustainable in the majority of African Countries? Critical Infrastructure deficit is a reality. Therefore, do all Countries in Africa have a national development strategy that has links or interlinks with these critical pillars for success? Infrastructure, in terms of energy, intermodal transportation, and even the bedrock of data for telecommunications (which are linked to energy as well), is fundamental. Thus, the dependencies and interdependencies are crucial to achieving the strategic national and continental AI objectives.

     Furthermore, Countries must achieve “policy coherence” in their public sector for them to achieve these seemingly disparate but relational sectors like technology, energy, digital economy, logistics and supply chains, etc. That being said, we need to face that reality and prepare for it because if we don’t prepare for the impacts of AI (positives and negatives), the negative consequences will be more devastating if we allow AI to evolve without Africa catching up fast.

     Human Capital Development

    Serious investments in human capital development, especially the youth who are the ones actually driving the tech and private sectors in China and the US. The youth of Africa are the ones who will scale new heights and push the boundaries of new frontiers.

    Public Service Culture and Political Will

    A point to note is that AI will not change our political system or corporate culture as African countries or Africa as a continent. It is our intentions that will drive the change that will bring peace and development, which technology and AI will enable. This is because the AI, robots, and technology are programmed to do exactly what we want them to do.

    Accordingly, the leaders of Africa should recognise that they have a role to play. Because AI is virtual reality. We need the human beings who are leading these countries to do the right things before we can safely, efficiently, and effectively deploy AI. With regard to how AI can be harnessed to achieve regional or continental security and peace, it is very important for us to understand that the technology is moving fast in terms of reconnaissance and surveillance, remote sensing, etc. Therefore, countries must build the capacities, competencies, and willpower to be proactive against risks and threats like terrorists so that they can be able to successfully react to risks and threats. Otherwise, AI will be just a buzzword in Africa. 

     Meanwhile, we should not lose sight of where we are in terms of our realities. For example, we are faced with heightening insecurity and conflicts across the continent. How have we leveraged the existing technologies to proactively quell potential crises or risks rather than allowing them to happen? As it is today, most national databases of countries across Africa are not up to par or synchronized across the board and effectively utilized for national security and development. This is worrisome considering the fact that the criminals, terrorists, and enemies are fully and effectively deploying technology in terms of communication, drones, deep fake AI, etc. Indeed, they are moving in tandem with the evolution of technology, and this makes them more formidable, as African countries are lagging behind. The risks and threats in Africa are escalating beyond any other region in the world.

    There must be Peace for Development to happen

    There must be peace before growth and development can happen. There must be stability in terms of the socio-economic well-being of our citizens across the countries in the continent for us to achieve the AI vision and objectives. Look at what is happening in Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC, for example, or in other parts of Africa. Even where there are no wars or battles, the socioeconomic headwinds in those countries MUST be addressed as part of the respective national and continental AI strategies because they are consequential to the achievement of the AI vision.

     Ethics and Regulation.

    The ethical and regulation issues of AI is a global concern. Nonetheless, with the ongoing international efforts to address the issues ethical and regulatory issues, I hope that it will be addressed on the continental and global platforms.

  • As some governors stop schooling during Ramadan

    As some governors stop schooling during Ramadan

    I am dismayed at how the governors of four northern States in northern Nigeria, namely Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, and Bauchi, have yet again closed down nursery, primary, and secondary schools in their States during the fasting period of the holy month of Ramadan. The schools are closed at a time when the quality of education in northern Nigeria has been nose-diving for decades. At a time when the rate of out-of-school children in northern Nigeria is the highest in Nigeria and in West Africa. For instance, the recent Multidimensional Poverty Index given by the National Bureau for Statistics puts Bauchi State at 54% of children lacking access to education, with Kebbi State next at 45%, Katsina has 38%, and Kano trails at 35%.

     I am shocked that some of the governors, in their wisdom, believe that it is good for the children to stay out of school for the entire month of Ramadan as a valuable addition to the States they govern. It is important to note that the youths are the greatest assets of any society.

     What does Islam say about the closure of schools during Ramadan?

    Indeed, the first Surah that was revealed to prophet Muhammad, Peace Be Upon Him (PBUH) in the Holy Qur’an is the 96th Chapter of the Holy Qur’an (Surah Al-Alaq) Where Almighty Allah Said to Prophet Muhammad PBUH “IQRA’A” meaning “READ or LEARN”. It is also instructive to note that the Holy Qur’an was first revealed to the prophet Muhammad PBUH, during the holy month of Ramadan. And if we are standing on the platform of Islam, then the reason for the closure of the school is not justifiable.

     May I remind those State Governors of the teachings of the leader of Islam, prophet Muhammad PBUH, whose educational model was more focused on youths of the society. During his days in Mecca before he performed Hijrah to Medina, especially after his Hijra and settling down in the city of Madina; majority of the people that drove the propagation. Of Islam (Da’awah), were the youths, who were highly educated in the school of the prophet Muhammad PBUH. Indeed, most of the companions/ followers of the prophet Muhammad PBUH became the knowledge reservoirs, teachers, leaders of thought, custodians/ librarians of Qur’an, Hadith, Islamic history, and Islamic jurisprudence, were young. Indeed, most of those companions/ followers of the prophet Muhammad PBUH, including women like his wives and others, acquired Islamic and other forms of education during their tender young , including during the month of Ramadan.

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     Therefore, there is no Islamic injunction in the Quran or in the Hadith that states that children should not go to school during Ramadan. Certainly, in Islam, children have to attain the age of puberty/maturity before they formally start fasting. So, if the concern is that the children will undergo a lot of stress during the month of fasting, about 90% (if we consider overage pupils) of the in Nursery and Primary schools’ pupils are not of fasting age. In fact, in the Islamic education system, pupils and students don’t go on holidays during Ramadan. Therefore, formal and informal Islamic schools (for example, Almajiri/ tsangaya schools) remain open during Ramadan except for the Eid-el-Fitri holidays. It is also strange and very worrisome to me as a Muslim and a northern Nigerian, that we are closing schools in some states in the north during the entire month of Ramadan, when indeed Islamic countries, or countries that run Islamic system of government, for example, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, etc. do not close their schools during Ramadan period. So, the question I ask is, what is the rationale behind closing schools for the entire month of Ramadan in those states? What value are we going to derive from closing our schools and keeping our children idle for a period of 30 days or more at a time when the minds and the brains of the children are open and ready to continue learning?

     Is it strategic or rational to close schools during Ramadan?

    At a time when we are trying to take more children (male and female), out of the streets and their homes and into the school system in the north, some governors are sending the pupils and students, home for a month. So, when you send back the child of a parents/guadians who would rather allow his child stay at home; as a Governor, what are you communicating to your people? You are actually inadvertently telling them that not going to school is a better option for that parent. Those children will be idle for a period of one month, doing nothing but playing or, in some cases, engaged in child labor. Hence, I wonder about the rationale behind keeping those schools closed. I would have loved to hear the reasoning that will align with my thoughts as a Muslim and as a northerner who believes that we are still lagging behind across all developmental indices in Nigeria. We are playing catch-up in terms of education, youth empowerment, and all other socioeconomic performance indices in this Country. And yet, we are closing schools for an entire month. Let us not forget, by the way, that during the course of the year, we have about 10 periods of public holidays in Nigeria; from Eid Kabir, Eid Fitri, Eid-el-Maulud, Christmas, Easter, New Year, Independence Day, Democracy Day, Workers Day, Children’s Day, etc. Of course, on some days that we have crises, we also shut down the national and/ or state economies.

     Accordingly, I urge those governors to have a rethink because as it is, we are fast losing ground, and catching up is becoming very difficult on a slippery pathway of socioeconomic headwinds. It makes no sense to me that children will be kept out of school in northern Nigeria, whereas their mates in other States across Nigeria are going to school, and attending extra classes/lessons. Those children will definitely lag behind. They seat for the same examinations, i.e. WAEC, NECO, JAMB, etc with other students from other States across Nigeria and in some cases even competing with other students across West Africa. How do we expect these children to catch up and keep up? And when the school resumes, the pupils and students will have to undergo crash programs (under pressure) as if it is their fault. I am amazed that some of our State Governors are taking this route at this crucial moment in the evolution of our society in northern Nigeria. Interestingly, just three days ago, the Federal Ministry of Education announced the approval of 11 new private Universities in Nigeria by President Bola Ahmad Tinubu. If you go through the list of the newly approved private universities, none of them will be located or situated in Northern Nigeria, except for the one that will be located in Abuja, which is owned by a southern Nigerian. The question is, are we not looking at our actions that speak of our vision and our strategy?

      Meanwhile, some northern states already have progressive, and forward-thinking plans for education and youth empowerment. Those models should be the models we should consider and improve upon rather than what I consider a retrogressive initiative of closing down schools for an entire month. If the consideration is socio-economic, the rhetorical question is, how much is the total money that will be spent in public schools for one month, feeding children during the holy month? Is it not worth it?

     Therefore, I urge those northern governors in those states where the school closure initiative is ongoing to have a rethink. I remember that around 1982 to 1983, during the tenure of the late Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, the former governor of Kano State, Kano State received the UNESCO Award for Literacy in Nigeria. Oh, my goodness. Oh! How the mighty have fallen. I remember while growing up in Kano State as a student representing Rumfa College, Kano, as the President of the Debating and Literary Society, and as the Chief Speaker of the school while also representing Kano State at the national level; engaging schools from across Nigeria, competing successfully in Literary and Debating competitions, as a proud northerner, as a proud Kano boy. Oh! How the mighty have fallen! Now we have gone so backward that we will spend an entire month without our children going to school. I also remember with nostalgia, the days of first Governor of Kano State, late Alhaji Audu Bako, and even before then, when the likes of Mallam Aminu, together with Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, Dan Masanin Kano Late Bello Maitama Sule, and Alhaji Aminu Dantata came together around 1967 to see how they could consolidate the educational system of Kano State by setting up the Kano State Community Commercial College, Goron Dutse, which later became Aminu Community Commercial College Kano State. The closure of schools during Ramadan will negate such noble and strategic education strategies and initiatives.

    I, therefore, urge the state governors concerned to reverse the decision of closing our schools at this important time of the year in the interest of our children, youth, and our future.

  • Hypocrisy of our expectations and the leadership question

    Hypocrisy of our expectations and the leadership question

    There are people within the leadership value chain that I call the “focal-point leaders”. Examples of focal point leaders include: The President, the Governors, the Chief Judge of the Federation, the Senate President, the Local Government Chairman, etc. These are leaders sitting at the top echelon of leadership, driving governance. But the focal point leaders can only drive effective, efficient, and impactful governance with the support of other leaders across the strata of leadership – vertical and horizontal, and those are the other critical leaders within the “leadership value chain”. If there is a failure within that leadership value chain, whereas the focal point leader may not have the leverage of the value chain to ensure/ enforce that which needs to be done, then that focal point leader will fail, no matter how intelligent, good-intentioned, or powerful he/ she is.

    I totally agree that; every administration must own its performance. People vigorously campaign for elections, promising milk and honey and all manner of things to citizens; especially with special reference to the 4th Republic, only for those politicians to turn around with excuses after winning the election, blaming their inability to perform on the previous administrations (at Federal and State levels). I also agree that going forward as citizens, we should not accept lame excuses from leaders that fail. But while we refuse to accept excuses from leaders who fail, we should also have the circumspection of recognizing that the rot did not start with the administration that is complaining. Indeed, the rot is longstanding. Therefore, we should have the introspection to manage the process of holding the leaders accountable to ensure that incumbent administrations at Federal and State levels, take the necessary steps to turn around the political and socioeconomic situation of the country. Of course, it should be without a doubt that continuously keeping leaders on their toes is what will ensure that politicians effectively deliver their mandates. Indeed, to whom much is given, much is expected.

    Furthermore, the optics of governance are also very crucial in managing the expectations of citizens. Therefore, It is very important that leaders within the Executive, Legislative, and Judiciary Arms of government; at Federal and subnational levels must demonstrate quintessential and pragmatic leadership. They must show that they are part of the State or Country that they lead; or part of the problem they are trying to solve. Consequently, they, their families, and allies must also demonstrate in their actions that they are not living in a bubble. They should empathize with the people and show the citizenry that they are living with the people in practical reality and not in virtual reality. Only when leaders are quintessential, practical, and empathetic that there be the synergy of visions and objectives between the leaders and citizens. However, sometimes even when the focal point leader (for example the President or Governor) provides quintessential and pragmatic leadership; the Ministers, Commissioners, or other officials within the leadership value chain behave differently (or even sometime irresponsibly) without consequences; this situation presents different optics that are in parallel to what the focal leadership is saying or doing. This type of situation causes problems, especially when there are no consequences for people who misbehave within the leadership value chain. An example is when leaders, whether at the ministerial level or other levels, live lavishly as if we are not living with over 165 million Nigerians who are multidimensionally poor. Now, that is part of the bigger problem! I saw a video trending the other day wherein a known politician was displaying piled up stacks bundles of money (cash) arranged on a table in the midst of the multi-dimensional poverty that the majority of his constituents are facing, I am sure that thousands of them did not eat that day. This audacity of irresponsibility puts the government in a bad light and makes it difficult for citizens to believe or respect the government and its good and well-meaning leaders and officials.

    Conversely, the citizens have not really helped themselves or the leaders of the leadership process with our actions, inactions of hypocrisies. For example, when a President refuses to do a jamboree to share people’s free money, he becomes a bad man. When a Governor refuses to loot money to share around to he/she people, he becomes a bad man/ woman. So, a society that celebrates criminality with chieftaincy titles, and honorary doctorate degrees is not a society that is ready for change. It is also not a society that is ready to hire the right leaders, because the actions of the people are such a society will continue to promote corruption and criminality. A society where corrupt people are at once at the first line in the church, at the first line in the mosque, or at the high table of events, should not expect any positive change. This is because you cannot eat your cake and have it! A corrupt people will not allow a good leader to do the needful. Hence, how do you expect society to change for the better? How do you expect the recruitment process to be right when you, the people, are the ones celebrating the corrupt ones, whether as their parents, as their family, or as their society? Indeed, a lot of the religious leaders and the traditional leaders are also in cahoots, and they are part of the leadership value chain. But, as citizens, conveniently point our accusing fingers at the political leaders. The political leaders are part of the society, and unless we continue to refuse to partake in the ills they do, then we have lost the moral right to challenge what they do.

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    Therefore, dear Nigerians, we should start looking at things from a broader perspective, building up to the 2027 general elections to recognize that just deciding to choose any person as a leader does not make our problems go away. We should also know that we also have roles to play. First of all, what are our priorities? What are our values as individuals, as families, as communities, and as societies? Then we can take it up a notch higher to start addressing the recruitment process of our leaders, then move on to demand accountability and performance

    The Paradox of Corruption

    The biggest inhibitor of the delivery of good governance over the years in Nigeria is corruption which is as a result of the erosion of our values. This long-standing issue did not start from 1999 but indeed has been embedded in our societies for over 60 years – things have just been getting worse. To be able to address the issue of corruption, we need to dimension the issue of corruption and how deep it has pervaded Nigeria.

     Historical perspectives:

    •In 1947, late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, wrote that “Corruption is the greatest defect of the Native Court system.” He complained that not only did judges take bribes, people used their connections to enrich themselves and avoid punishment for their crimes. Does that sound familiar?

     •In 1950, the late Sir Abubukar Tafawa, wrote that, “The twin curses of bribery and corruption pervade every rank and department of Government” … Does that also sound familiar?

     •I also gathered that in the 1950s, the word ‘awoof’ was already being used to describe how civil servants used their positions to enrich themselves.

     Therefore, from the above references, we can note that corruption is a long-standing issue in Nigeria. Even if the leaders at the top are good and capable, they cannot be able to force people within the leadership value chain to deliver, maybe by virtue of the system of governance or essentially due to what I call the “conspiracy of corruption.  Using the Civil Service as an instance; if the Civil Service is not in sync with the focal point leader, that leader is what I call an “entrapped leader”. Unless such a leader takes drastic steps, he/ she will be “restrained” by the conspiracy of the Establishment/ vested interests, which can trickle down to the society at large.

    In my humble view, the root cause of the national development problems in Nigeria is not just the failure of the leaders at the top. Part of the issue of bad leadership in Nigeria is what I term the failure of the “leadership value chain”. For example, if along the layers of the Civil Service, you have corrupt leaders, whether they are Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, Directors, etc. who collaborate to circumvent the system, the system will fail, and consequently the leader will fail, because he will ultimately become what I call, “an entrapped leader”.

  • Conflicts in DR Congo and across Africa

    Conflicts in DR Congo and across Africa

    The 38th African Union (AU) Summit kicked off two days ago 12th to 16th February 2025. Some of the key issues lined up for discussions include the ongoing conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the internal conflicts in Sudan, and peace in the Sahel region. Other major points of discussion will also include intra-Africa trade and development. I also reckon that the African leaders will discuss Trump 2.0 and the actions taken so far by President Trump on Africa e.g. withdrawal of Aid, suspension of USAID, etc.

    This meeting is happening as the 72hours ultimatum given by Mouvement du Mars (M23) rebels to the displaced persons to move out of camps in Goma and return to their villages will expire today, with the threat by M23 to escalate their offensive by advancing to take over the city of Bukavu, having taken over Goma, the capital city of the Northern Kivu region in eastern DRC, two weeks ago.

     The President of the DRC, Mr. Felix Tshisekedi, has been grappling with the situation as he tries to find a solution to this complicated and protracted situation that has kept the DRC on its knees for decades.  So far, the regional blocs of Southern and Eastern Africa have not been able to broker a cease-fire, talk less of a workable peace process. I hope that a workable and sustainable outcome will be achieved soonest so as to immediately scale down and subsequently stop the brutal socioeconomic and humanitarian crises in the DRC which will certainly have a negative concomitant impact on eastern and Southern Africa.

     The DRC is facing one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world today, with millions of internally displaced persons in the northern and southern Kivu regions. I do hope that the ongoing AU Summit will bring about a precursor to lasting peace in DRC. Of course, it will be a long process, due to the protracted and complicated nature of the situation with so many unseen hands from the neighboring countries and even the intercontinental “Deep States”.

     The disposition and intent of critical stakeholders like President Paul Kagame of Rwanda is crucial, to making any meaningful headway to achieve an effective cease-fire and peace process. This is because of previous unsuccessful attempts. For example, in December last year, the peace meeting that took place in Luanda, Angola, was unsuccessful. President Joao Lourenco of Angola, was not able to anchor a conversation, most especially because the DRC government was not really keen on engaging directly with the M23 rebel forces, while the Rwandan authority would like the M23 rebels to have a direct conversation with the DRC government. Rwanda is considered the unseen hand behind the M23 group with Paul Kagame backing them for over 25 years, even though the Republic of Rwanda has consistently denied so. Therefore, due to the non-inclusion of the M23 group, President Paul Kagame did not attend the summit, and consequently, the Summit was a flop. What remains to be seen is if some of the provisions for the meeting that failed in Luanda will be addressed in subsequent engagements, because of the complexities around the DRC situation. Another snag is the spat between Rwanda and South Africa, which happened over a week ago. The diplomatic tension between Rwanda and South Africa is another key issue to be addressed if any good progress is to be made. This is because South Africa is part of the intervention alliance that is supporting the DRC in fighting the M23 rebel forces. We may recall that in 2012, the M23 rebels took over Goma. Subsequently, the Congolese armed forces (FARDC) in alliance with the Kenyan forces and South African forces were able to push back the M23 out of Goma.

     It is worthy of note that pursuing lasting peace in those troubled regions of the DRC is a very tricky situation due to geopolitical, economic, and sociological reasons. For instance; while DRC and its allies are saying that they are committed to protecting and defending the civilian population in the DRC; one of the claims of the M23 rebels is that they are protecting the Tutsis ethnic minorities who live near around Eastern region of DRC bordering the Republic of Rwanda – from marginalization and victimization. How those sensitivities will be addressed in the overall interest of all the power blocs will be a critical success factor. I am not really that optimistic that a concrete peace process will be achieved at the AU Summit, but I look forward to an outcome that will placate all stakeholders as a good way forward.

     The DRC also accuses the M23 of looting the Country’s solid resources, which include Coltan.  The DRC supplies half of the world’s Coltan – the metal used in making mobile phones and laptops. So, the Western Countries and companies are also being blamed, for being amongst the unseen hands that are escalating the conflict in the DRC, and that is why the situation in DRC is so pathetic – just like the cases in other parts of Africa. That is why as I stated earlier, I am not really excited that a solution is in the offing just yet. There is so much focus on the M23 rebels, and rightly so because they have been more frontal and consistently impactful. But the alleged activities of the “Deep State” of the Western world and other “interest groups”, and power blocs, further complicate the DRC situation. For example, the Republic of Burundi is an interested party that is alleged to have some spots with some rebels across the border with DRC. Uganda is also fighting with some rebel forces across its border with the DRC. And there is the crisis in the Central African Republic, which is neighboring DRC and shares its eastern border with DRC – and the threat/ ripple effect that may pose to the DRC and vice versa. The huge “Deep State” players that are plundering the Country’s resources will never want the DRC to have peace. Of course, we know that the “Deep States” have direct and indirect connections with some of the conflicts so as to ensure that peace does not prevail in DR where there are abundant mineral resources that the West so much desires.

     In addition, across the northern border of the DRC, South Sudan is engrossed in communal crisis. There is also a huge humanitarian crisis in the Republic of Sudan which is at the northern border of South Sudan. The Republic of Chad which is neighboring Central Africa (Central Africa Republic is sandwiched between the Republic of Chad and the DRC) is fighting with ISIS terrorists and pockets of minor internal political tensions. Growing terrorist activities in the Sahel belt with the breakaway of the Military Juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS are other dimensions that threaten regional and continental peace and prosperity of Africa.

     Therefore, the leadership of Eastern and Southern Africa as well as the entire continent of Africa; must achieve regional and continental peace, if any meaningful intra-Africa trade and economic growth can be achieved for Africa. The major issues confronting Africa are multi-dimensional, and therefore require a holistic perspective, approach, and solution, in trying to find lasting peace and integration.

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     In the case of the DRC, what are more critical are those long-standing communal, ethnic, economic, and geopolitical issues right from the 1990s. From the genocide in Rwanda and the sociopolitical issues in Burundi to the breakup of the Uganda and Rwanda alliance, which was a long-standing pact between President Paul Kagame and President Yoromeri Mesoveni from way back in the 1980s. Opposing forces that are not ready to see eye to eye, either for social, geopolitical, or economic reasons, will continue to elude peace in the DRC. So, the stakes are varying, and the stakeholders are incongruent. More importantly, the “Deep States” – unseen forces that are empowering the opposing forces either financially or with weaponry. Those unseen hands will do what it takes to ensure that there is no peace in the highly mineral-endowed DRC or any part of Africa that is so enriched.

     Indeed, the sad and precarious situation of the DRC has been there right from independence. The DRC had never known overall especially because the past leaders of the DRC have not fared well; whether it is during the reign of former President, late Mobutu Sese Seko, during the Zaire era, or when the Country reverted to be DRC after, President Paul Kagame and President Yoweri Museveni were the key unseen hands that upstaged Mobutu Sese Seko. And then you have the former President, the late Laurent Kabila, and his son President Joseph Kabila.

     More Points to Note.

    It is important to note that in Africa, we must recognize that the lingering and growing crises across Africa will ultimately hamstring the growth of the continent because we are all connected. Invariably if one regional bloc sneezes the other part of the Continent ultimately catches the cold with the effects that follow. Therefore, United we stand, and divided we will continue to wallow in the abyss of backwardness.

  • Another wake-up call for opposition political parties in Nigeria

    Another wake-up call for opposition political parties in Nigeria

    The spectacle of a debacle that happened at the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) national headquarters during the PDP Board of Trustees (BOT) meeting, which took place last week was a show of shame, and a culmination of the crises that have rocked the party for about 2 years, with no end in sight. The “roof-rofo” fisticuff which looked like a scene out of a 2nd grade Nollywood movie was both funny and annoying – what a paradox! This is especially so because the fracas happened at the national headquarters of the PDP during the meeting of what is considered the highest advisory and decision-making body of elders and leaders of the party. So, what should we expect at the state and/ or local government levels?

    Many people do not know that I have political experience. As a bit of background about my political antecedents; I was a founding member of the All Peoples Party (APP) in 1998, and I was appointed as the first Information Analyst at the APP National Secretariat, working directly with the National Chairman and the National Secretary (within the National Working Committee). I worked with different Committees including Planning and Organising Committees, Mobilization Committees, National Convention Committee, the APP governorship elections Campaign team for late Engineer Magaji Abdullahi, the APP Governorship Candidate for Kano State in the 1999 Gubernatorial elections, etc. I was given level-1 confidentiality clearance and ran political assignments at the highest level. After the Presidential elections, In the second half of 1999, I followed some of my Principals, to switch affiliation to the PDP along with other party chieftains. In the PDP, I was also privileged to work at top levels with the likes of the late Ibrahim Aminu Saleh, and other party chieftains. One such instance was playing a key role in the emergence of Chief Audu Ogbe as the PDP National Chairman in 2001. Following that development, I became actively involved in partisan politics and undertaking national assignments. In 2005, midway into the second term of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, I decided to revert back fully to my professional career and stepped away from partisan politics.

     Having been a member of an opposition political party, as well as the ruling party, I understand the mechanics and dynamics of politics and party administration. Since the time I left politics in 2005, interestingly, today, all our political mentors, leaders, and colleagues from 1998 to date are in all the political parties, APC, PDP, Labour Party or NNPP because the politicians have all spread out. And that tells you the kind of politics we have in Nigeria.

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     The politics of ideology in Nigeria is still a work in progress. With the way the opposition political leaders and their parties are unraveling, unless something disruptive is done on the part of the opposition, it is highly unlikely that they will make any significant impact in the 2027 elections, i.e. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will most likely have what they call in football, “ a walk over “- in 2027 – easy win. Because, to be honest, what is currently going on in the opposition political parties is a joke. I say with all sense of responsibility, that I am disappointed with the kind of leadership that is provided at the political party levels. I am disappointed with the kind of engagements that are happening across opposition political parties. Selfishness, parochialism, and the pretext of nationalism or patriotism are most times reflected in their actions. And I have said it many times, and with all due respect, that whether it is His Excellency Atiku Abubakar, His Excellency Peter Obi, or His Excellency Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso; all of whom I have profound respect for, cannot effectively lead a country if you cannot manage a political party. For instance, with the ongoing spectacle of a debacle in PDP some days ago, does PDP currently look like a political party that can upstage the APC at the federal or even at the State level? So, the truth is if these political leaders really mean well for Nigeria, then they should have a solid and robust strategy that will unify their political parties, and they should put their differences aside and focus on building internal democracy which will ensure them the unity of purpose and prepare them for the herculean task of winning a highly strategic incumbent, like President Tinubu.

    According to former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the APC is enticing some opposition party leaders with money so that they could destabilize their parties. With profound respect, in my opinion, that allegation is laughable. If opposition political parties continue deceiving themselves by saying that it is the APC that is causing problems in their political parties, then that means that the opposition political leaders don’t have the capacity, political sagacity, political acumen, and fluidity to hold their party structures and hold their people together. I also expect that sometimes they should even do the politics of give and take. President Bola Ahmed had to step down his presidential ambition twice, for the long game – That is strategy! But every time Alhaji Atiku loses elections, then everything has to stop, or he will abandon the political party that gave him the ticket. Mr. Peter Obi is also beginning the move in that direction. We must understand our strengths and our weaknesses to effectively utilize opportunities, and ultimately achieve our strategic objectives. 

    We have a political colossus in the person of President Tinubu as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. We can talk and wish him away. We can lament and complain. But unless they put their heads together, like it happened in 2015, as we may recall it was l the APC, i.e. President Bola Tinubu and his political allies that upstage an incumbent President; then all the opposition can organize, will be talk shops. They can only upstage the incumbent President if they put their personal sentiments aside and look at Nigeria as a project. 

    By the way, let me be clear, that I will not support power going back to the North in 2027. As Nigerians, we agreed to a north-south shift of power in the interest of unity, equity, and justice. Therefore, let us work with that template so that the opposition will start putting a robust strategy, going forward. I am saying this without prejudice to the constitutional right of citizens to aspire for any public office in Nigeria. Essentially, leadership recruitment in Nigeria should be based on character, content capacity, unity, equity, justice, and about what a candidate has to offer Nigeria. Only when opposition political leaders and opposition political parties come together, that there be hope for the opposition to even put the APC on their toes.

     Accordingly, my humble “going forward” agenda-setting message to the opposition parties is; “Recognizing your reality is the beginning of success”. Real situational awareness is what guides successful strategic planning and execution in military warfare, business, and also politics. Toxic narratives, social media rantings, and cyberbullying will not lead to success. In essence, the opposition parties need to expand their vision, be more strategic, detailed, focused, determined, and resilient, and ultimately be united about selfish interests to succeed, because performance is measured by results and outcomes and not by events or activities.

     One of the indications of how the opposition parties are faring is how the members of the opposition parties in the National Assembly (Senate and House of Representatives) have completely disappeared from their political party structure, headquarters, or scheme of things. In the past few weeks Members of the opposition parties in the National Assembly in the Senate or House of Representatives are already decamping in droves to the APC. I expect some State Governors of the opposition will soon decamp to the APC.

     A lot of members of the opposition parties in the National Assembly, no longer associate themselves with the Presidential candidates who should be the rallying point of their party. I expect to hear or see them deferring to those leaders with regard to critical issues of national interests, but that is not happening except in the case of the NNPP, in fairness to them. For those who won elections on the platform of the PDP, I cannot remember the time that I saw most of them in a photoshoot together, talk less of hearing them going to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar for advice or guidance. The same situation is the case of those who won on the tide of the Obedient movement, the photo shoots with Mr. Peter Obi are becoming less talk less of constructive engagement with the LP leader.

     My parting words for the opposition political figures; United you stand, divided you fragment your votes and make it easy for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to coat into his second term the rhetorical question is, “Will our politicians ever rise above their selfish and parochial interested to actual do the needful?” Your answers are as good as mine.

  • China’s AI deployment versus Trump 2.0’s strategy

    China’s AI deployment versus Trump 2.0’s strategy

    Today, I will lean on my background in Information and Communication Technology (ICT), and over three decades of experience as a Chartered ICT Professional, as part of my diverse skills and competencies to reflect on the ongoing constructive in AI as China unveils Deepseek AI and other AI initiatives.

    Within one week of his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States (U.S.) (Trump 2.0), the emergence of the Deepseek AI platform suddenly sent President Trump’s Offensive strategy into a tactical defensive retreat. Like I said before, President Donald Trump soon realized that we are not in medieval times. China has dealt a strategic tech card that has disrupted not just Trump’s 2.0 strategy, but the entire global tech and AI space with the game-changing Deepseek moment. Deepseek is the main competitor to ChatGPT, and other AI models.

    Global stock markets are already reacting to the emergence of Deepseek which has sent shockwaves across stock markets, as tech stocks plunged, with about $1Trillion wiped out in a single day! According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) Research: $15.7 trillion is the projected global economic growth that AI will provide by 2030. In my vew, with the rate at which AI is moving, AI may exceed expectations.

    Deepseek AI is cheaper than other AIs, built on less advanced chips, yet it performs as well as other AI frontrunners. It is free as an open source and nimbler. Of course, as a first-time launch, it could still be considered a Work in Progress, as the platform will be finetuned as it progresses. In one fell swoop, Deepseek is demystifying AI, and making it available and accessible- that’s a game changer!

    Just like anywhere in the world; respecting and leveraging alliances (internal and external) will remain a critical success factor for the United States (U.S.) as it has been for centuries. Alienating Allies will backfire in the long run. Deepseek’s emergence has sent shockwaves across the global tech ecosystem so much so that it secured the full global attention, particularly that of President Trump as he acknowledges the disruptive power of the Deeepsek AI, by recognizing its emergence as a “wake-up call” to the U.S. This unexpected reaction from a normally defiant President Trump is a stark reminder of the uncertainties of global dynamics especially in this 21st century. One may say that it is still early days. But the domestic and international reactions to President Trump’s scare tactics are signs of days to come, that President Trump will not run the world as he thought he could.

    In my view, the timing of the emergence of Deepseek AI, is very strategic for China, especially within the context of the ongoing tech, trade as well as geopolitics wars between the U.S. and China. It is strategic that China waited until after the inauguration of President Trump, before they unleashed Deepseek AI full-scale onto the World Wide Web, countering or completely disrupting the initial plans of President Trump’s offensive strategy of domination. Instead of deploying a defensive strategy, China deployed a counter-offensive strategy from an unexpected flank by seizing the moment to deploy Deepseek AI. As if that is enough, just a few days ago, Alibaba, a Chinese Tech giant unveiled its AI model, “Qwen 2.5-VL”, which according to Alibaba, is even better than Deepseek’s V3, Open AI’s GPT 4.0, and Meta’s Llama. According to Alibaba, Qwen 2.5 VL is currently the best AI model in the world; which remains to be confirmed in the coming days. In addition, last week, Moonshot AI, a Chinese startup released its latest product, named “Kimi K 1.5”, which Moonshot claims is at par with Open AI’s best. Interestingly, these game-changing developments in China are unraveling at the beginning of the year 2025, within a week of President Trump’s administration and during the Lunar New Year in China which is a holiday period in China. Accordingly, China is basically making a power move and a strategic statement to the world, especially to the U.S.; that China will remain a force to reckon with in technology, trade, commerce, and supply chain climates, amongst others.

    Of course, it is worthy of note that within 72 hours of his inauguration, President Trump demonstrated political and strategic sagacity, by securing almost $500 billion in Private commitment and, amongst other multi-billion U.S. for infrastructure development of AI and other technology initiatives; President Trump also secured a $600 trillion from the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Muhammad Bin Salman which is “to expand investment and trade” between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. for the next four years. Additionally, President Trump also made a pitch for a 50/50 shareholding between TikTok and the U.S., he also gave the green light for Billionaire Elon Musk to be the American investor in TikTok, etc. These achievements speak volumes of the influence of President Trump, his commercial foresight and acumen in planning for further development of technology and empowering AI to consolidate the position of the US in the global Tech. However, it is obvious that President Trump is beginning to realize that his objective of easily subjugating the world under the threats of occupation and tariffs will not be that easy to achieve if at all it is possible.

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    It, therefore, follows, to note the change in President Trump’s mode of messaging on China, which in my view has changed from “aggressive” to “conciliatory”. For instance, he was the first to call President Xi of China and had discussions on how to move forward, and China also sent the highest-ranking Chinese official to Trump’s inauguration. This is an indication of the mutual understanding of the value each of the two largest economies of the world bring to the table, and the need to have more mutually beneficial trade relationships than the “take it all” approach on either side. The fact that President Trump’s aggressive approach to China could not be in the interest of his de facto right-hand man Elon Musk and other big American tech giants and businesses is an indication that there may not be a “Trade Armageddon”, after all, Mr. Elon Musk and other Tech American Tech giants who have major manufacturing and production plants in China will rather advocate for constructive trade engagements. I also reckon that Trump may be playing the bluffing game to secure a good deal for America at the end of the day.

    The cost-effectiveness and capacity of Deepseek AI, and its other capabilities at the initial launch has provided a vista into the potential things to come and has negated the assumption/theory or principle that the US alone will determine everything from technology commerce, and trade, investment regional and global security, etc. for the entire world. The emergence of DeepSeek AI is also a counter maneuver at the thought that America will use the availability of semiconductors to push China out of the market or to control the market in that regard.

    Furthermore, the fact that DeepSeek AI does not require expensive chips is a big game changer and also brings to the fore the need for partners and allies to look at how they can work together for mutual benefits in the global space. The illusion that one country alone will determine how other countries survive or exist is long gone. As I said before, even Genghis Khan, Julius Caesar, and Alexander the Great amongst others had the illusion of conquering the world, but indeed they could only do the most they could before they left.

    Security and privacy concerns for Deepseek AI versus cost and customer choice

    There is a valid concern that open-source AI platforms like Deepseek AI are not secure, endanger the privacy of user data, and could have data integrity issues. Basically, AI algorithms rely heavily on the quality and diversity of the data. Therefore, in my view, the growth of AI will further complicate and endanger our Cyberspace unless drastic, sustainable steps are taken by governments across the world and all concerned.

    Essentially, it is not only Deespseek that could be guilty of the aforementioned threats as we have seen in the case of Google, and almost all the social media platforms. It is a clear and present danger and the seriousness with which global leaders are discussing regulations and security AI; clearly demonstrates the importance of standardization, regulation, and security. But the reality is that the AI space is undergoing constructive disruption, breaking monopolies, and providing alternatives for users 

    China, Russia, India, and Japan are also playing major roles in the Tech space. Therefore, how President Trump is able to adjust his strategy will determine how the U.S. will continue maintaining its dominance. Because indeed maintaining leadership also requires building consensus with allies by giving and taking, and not only by just taking. So, the tariff war should be a subset of how President Trump is able to position the US by recognizing that the availability of raw materials and human capital in terms of skills, competencies, and capacities are critical success factors, and the U.S. does not have it all. For instance, Lithium and other critical raw materials are coming from Countries around the world, especially Africa, while gifted and talented human capital is available all over the world.

  • President Trump’s inauguration and some initial global reactions

    President Trump’s inauguration and some initial global reactions

    President Donald Trump is fast settling in as the 47th President of the United States of America (Trump 2.0), after his inauguration into office 4 days ago, on the 20th of January, 2025. He has hit the ground running by starting to deliver his campaign promises, starting with a bold speech in which he re-affirmed his Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda with sweeping statements on how he intends to use Tax and Tariff on foreign countries and foreign business to better the lot of Americans, etc. He undertook some saber rattling on geopolitics and global trade and Investment. Immediately after the inauguration speech, he went on to sign over 300 Executive Orders which included clamping down on immigration, pardoning the January 6 Capitol Hill insurrectionists, etc. 

    Accordingly, President Trump has ordered the immediate deployment of over 1,500 troops to the US-Mexican Border to block immigrants from entering the US, while a sweeping operation is underway to arrest and deport immigrants that are already within US soil. 

    Essentially, we are back to borders and tariffs. Globalization is now on the brink, as nationalization is becoming more prominent across the globe.

    Global stock markets and the world economic Forum Respond

    Global stock markets as well as the global trade and investment ecosystem are already reacting to President Trump’s inauguration and initial actions. President Trump, from day one secured $500billion US Dollars in Private commitment, amongst other multi-billion US for infrastructure development of AI and other technology initiatives; President Trump also made a Pitch for a 50/50 shareholding between TikTok and the US, he also gave a green light for Billionaire Elon Musk to be the American investor in TikTok, etc. Reactions have also been flowing from the annual World Economic Forum taking place in Davos Switzerland where world leaders have converged. What remains to be seen is President Trump’s action plan on how he intends to achieve his strategic objectives.

    As President Trump addressed the World Economic Forum yesterday, he reiterated his campaign promises, i.e. his anti-Immigration policy, US lowering interest rates, blasting the EU over tariffs taxes, and regulations, reaffirmation of the US opting out of the global climate change accord, etc.

     However, a very interesting development is that President Trump stated that his administration will slam more sanctions and tariffs on Russia if President Putin doesn’t stop the war against Ukraine. Although he didn’t provide specifics, this is a slight departure from his initial position on the Russia-Ukraine war before his inauguration. This is a noteworthy topic to watch considering President Trump’s position against the EU-NATO’s strategy on the Russia-Ukraine war. 

    Is Trumps Rhetoric, a real disruption or a deal tactic?

    It is important to note the change in President Trump’s mode of messaging on China, which in my view has changed from “aggressive” to “conciliatory”. For instance, he was the first to call President Xi of China and had discussions on how to move forward, and China also sent the highest-ranking Chinese official to Trump’s inauguration. This speaks volumes of the mutual understanding of the value each two largest economies of the world bring to the table, and the need to have more mutually beneficial trade relationships than the “take it all” approach on each side. The fact that their aggressive position of Trump on China could not be in the interest of his de facto right-hand man Elon Musk and other big American tech giants and businesses is an indication that it may not be a “Trade Armageddon”, after all. I also reckon that Trump may be playing the bluffing game to secure a good deal for America at the end of the day.

     Furthermore, at the core of President Trump’s national economic development strategy is to drive the US economy, by taxing sovereign nations and businesses and by applying Tariffs and sanctions. In my opinion, President Trump considers all the other countries around the world as subnationals of the United States of America. The $ 1 trillion question is “how” he will achieve that objective. President Trump wants to do a lot of audacious and disruptive things in terms of geopolitics, economy, investment and trade, technology, energy supply for Americans, re-energizing the manufacturing sector to compete with China and other manufacturing Countries, etc. But how he’s he will achieve those objectives, albeit some of them conflict with each other in this day and time of the 21st century, remains to be seen. Because even during the days of Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, etc., those imperialists could not control the entire world. Indeed, at some point, they had the illusions that they were controlling the entire world with Wars, Taxes, Tariffs, Sanctions, etc. But one by one they could only achieve the much they could, albeit without longevity. The world is watching President Trump’s tariff strategy and preparing to counter the strategy. Countries like China, Canada, Mexico, and Panama, are already reacting and strategizing to counter President Trump’s strategy. The days ahead will be interesting.

    Oil and gas politics

    President Trump will pump more oil and gas into the global market, as the USA is the largest producer of Crude oil in the world. We are beginning to see the impact of Trump’s presidency on the global oil market, as with a decline 2 days ago (24 hours after his inauguration) as the price of Brent Crude went down to about $79 from where it was. The impact that the oil glut has on an oil-producing nation like Nigeria which relies on crude oil for about 90% of its revenue will be significant. 

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    If we may recall, during his first administration, President Trump applied his “drill-baby-drill” concept of ensuring the global glut of oil, which scaled down the prices of oil globally. And he will do the same during Trump 2.0, by trying to control the demand and supply side of oil, playing the oil and gas politics. 

    For Oil and Gas producing countries like Nigeria, this is a threat. Because this will affect them in terms of the revenues. Accordingly, Oil and Gas producing Countries will need to hedge against the impact of “drill-baby-drill”. Countries that are forward-thinking with their economic diversification strategies have hedged the potential outcome of our Trump policies because everybody knew that if Trump won, these are the potential steps he’s going to take.  For countries like Nigeria, I expect to see a review of our economic diversification strategy, even though the outcomes or impacts of the diversification may be in the mid to long term.

    Consequently, countries that have prepared will just adapt. In my view, those countries that didn’t prepare will have to go back to the drawing board. I expect Nigeria to do so, i.e. to review some of the budget parameters and targets so that they could be more realistic.

    Global supply chains and trade

    There are already warnings coming from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank about potential disruptions due to the economic policies of President Trump. There will be disruptions, definitely global disruptions, due to the influence of the U.S. in many things. So, there will be disruptions in trade, investment, and supply chain with the concomitant effect on global and national inflations.

     In the case of Nigeria, we need to be more sure-footed, purposeful, and result-oriented. For instance, in the case of Nigeria’s budget proposal for 2025. The benchmark for crude oil that we use to project our revenue will be impacted by Trump 2.0.

     Importantly, in my view, from the big picture perspective, unless President Trump adjusts as backlashes ensue (I notice that he has scaled down the tariff he intends to slam on China from 50% to 10%), the US will be the ultimate loser IN the end, the ultimate loser. For example; In the case of President Trump’s Migration policy, chasing the migrants out of America may likely ease cheap labor out of America, which will increase the wage bill in the US. I also wonder how President Trump intends to turn around the US manufacturing sector within 12 calendar months or two years while fighting US Allies like Canada, and the EU; and other Countries like China and Africa that are US trade partners in terms of crucial raw materials. 

    So essentially, in my opinion; excessive taxing and the increase of tariffs by the US, on foreign countries and foreign businesses will be countered by the productive sectors of the world, which is China, India, and other countries. We know that the U.S. is one of the biggest consumers of Chinese and Indian goods and services, where Apple Inc., Tesler, etc. products are produced in China. This is what I mean by stating earlier, that the US could be the ultimate loser.

    BRICS

    The increasing popularity and relevance of BRICS, whether it is from the point of view of economic positioning or geopolitics in terms of oil production, in terms of the wealth that these countries hold as it is today, and indeed to provide an alternative platform to the US dollar or the dominance of the G7. With the emergence of Donald Trump and his tariff narrative, it is clear that the BRICS Alliance will grow membership to adapt new the global reality.

  • To those attacking me for supporting Tax Reforms

    To those attacking me for supporting Tax Reforms

    “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil, is that good men do nothing” – Edmund Burke an Irish Statesman.

    Insults and threats to my life will not change my quest for a better Nigeria

    This is a response to the backlash I’ve been receiving, which includes threats to my life with regard to my position supporting the tax reform Bill various Nigeria’s political class, particularly the northern political establishment and citizens to have a change of mindset with regard to how northern Nigeria should rethink northern Nigeria and change our current retrogressive trajectory of development to a positive trajectory. Indeed, it goes without saying that we are the most backward region in Nigeria, despite having produced more Presidents than any other region in Nigeria. The truth is the truth, no matter how much we deny it! And the sooner we face reality, the earlier we start sincerely taking the right steps to reverse the ugly trend for the better. Ignoring the reality will be at our own collective peril! By the way to those blindly insulting me and threatening my life, I am deterred. By the way, I am not known to shy away from speaking truth to power if I even stand alone.

    And then Nigerian Governors Endorse the Tax Reform Bill

    It is interesting that yesterday Nigerian Governors under the auspices of the Nigerian Governors Forum (across political party lines), finally endorsed the Tax contentious Tax Reform Bill. This is a very good development, especially after the pushback by some Governors and politicians who were vehemently against the Bill, so much so that the Governor Nasarawa State, His Excellency, Engr. Abdullahi Sule; a gentleman, and technocrat that I have high regard for; during a television interview called some of us, who are proponents for Tax reform as people looking for a job.  I am sure that his excellency’s perspective that we are “looking for a job” has changed since he has now joined “us” – the proponents of the Tax Bill (the so-called “job seekers”); as he is now in favor of Bill. In the past week, there was a growing number of politicians who are now accepting the Bill; having aligned with what I had consistently requested that we all do, i.e.; read the Bill, Consult, Engage, Debate and Negotiate, with a view to having a robust, acceptable, actionable and productive Tax reform in the interest of all Nigerians. Indeed, in the end, we will be vindicated.

    I commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for his political sagacity in managing the process and polity to achieve a positive outcome. This significant milestone of the acceptance of the Tax Bill (with some modifications) will set the tone for the acceptance of the Bill by Nigerians and the ultimate passage of the Bill for a better Nigeria.

    The tax reform will be an opportunity for northern Nigeria and indeed the entire States across Nigeria and the FCT to reposition for more competitiveness and derive more value from their contributions to the economy rather than “killing” the tax reform initiative. If so, the North would lose a golden opportunity.

    Food for Thought for our Northern Nigeria

    The backlash and verbal attack, including political leaders interestingly, requires that I respond to reiterate my position, and I will continue to speak to our people, even if it is a few of them as I have seen the massive responses from various well-meaning Nigerians and indeed Northern Nigerians, supporting the narrative that I have been passing, objectively seeing the reasoning, seeing the foresight and looking at the strategy I appreciate a lot of Northern Nigerians for speaking truth to power, with a view to having a better society, with a view to having a better country. My context of contestations, reflections, and contributions is mostly apolitical. Of course, man is a political animal. But if I want my region to grow, if I want Nigeria to prosper, then I would love northern Nigeria to grow. Because indeed, if northern Nigeria grows, then ultimately Nigeria will be better. I use this opportunity to say loud and clear, like I have said in other forms, that northern Nigeria is not the only region that requires reform, it requires a rethink for progressiveness and progression. As we have seen, some leaders of thoughts from other regions come together to rethink their region, to push a collective agenda for the progress of their region. Last week, Nigerians witnessed the emergence of the new President General of Ohaneze Ndigbo, Senator Azuta Mbata. This socio-cultural group has largely demonstrated cohesion (despite some dissenting positions), just like other regions enforced the agenda for the progress of their respective regions while not losing focus, you know, of the unity of our country. It is within that for over 30 years, I have been contributing my humble opinions, and trying to redirect our thinking and influence us to rethink our region for the betterment of our people, to rethink our region for the betterment of Nigeria, rethink leadership of Northern Nigeria with a view to adding more value so that we can also have a better strategic position, better than just political power in terms of population.

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    Northern Nigeria has a proliferation of interest groups that are here to be able to harmonize positions and move in one direction with one voice. I’m not saying that we should not have different interest groups with different thinking, but the earlier we start having a unity of purpose in our movements, the more likely we are able to have a mindset that will move us together in a unified, progressive direction. Otherwise, the mismatch of ideologies, visions, and misalignment of objectives will further polarize the North and further exacerbate the current spiraling of the North into the abyss of backwardness. From insecurity to increased infant maternal mortality, 70% of about 130% of the multidimensionally poor Nigerians are from the north, which translates to about 90 million or so, almost close to the total population of Sudan.

     Divergence of views and ideas is what makes societies more productive and successful. But only if those views and ideas are canvassed respectfully and constructively. Characterization of opposing ideas and views will not invalidate the substance of those views or ideas but could deny that society or nation some quality opportunities for growth and Development at the peril of the people and to the advantage of other societies or countries.

     The northern leaders must harness the wealth and potential of northern Nigeria and translate them into real core value or real social-economic value for Northern Nigeria and indeed for the entire country and even the Sahel. The history of Northern Nigeria is so rich and important that reducing the conversation the way we have been reducing it, discounting any valuable contribution and emphasizing the need for us to have these hard conversations, you know, leaves much to be desired, and speaks volumes with regards to how bad and how things are, you know, happening and becoming in northern Nigeria.

     The 1 billion US Dollar question for Northern Nigeria is, are we making any positive progress as a region? And if so, should we ask ourselves those questions as to why we are not making the right progress or moving in the right direction, to say the least, or should we continue living in self-deceit and pretend that all is well just because we don’t want some people don’t want to offend some people or we should allow some people to continue leading the north by the nose into the abyss of retrogression.

     The culture of weaponizing or demonizing constructive and progressive opinions by gaslighting the people by politicians, religious leaders, and traditional rulers is not only bad but antithetical to the progress of our societies and Country. The hallmark of critical thinking, especially in a diverse society is to engage a thought process of status quo a view to achieve a more desirable outcome.

     I have had cause to contribute to constructive criticism of some Policies of this administration and President Tinubu listened to us and either reversed or stood down those decisions in the interest of the policies. Some of the policies include the expatriate quota policy, etc. That should also be the attitude of Governors and political leaders, i.e to objectively listen and where necessary adjust strategies and policies in the overall interest of Nigerians, who are actually the mandate owners.

    Indeed, political leaders from other regions are also not different from northern political leaders. Having recognized that we have excellent, excellent political leaders who are governors and ministers but they indeed are in the minority and I will continue pushing you know the narration and the thought discussions you know along with other very eminent Nigerian patriots until we start listening. We must tell ourselves the truth, and that’s the bottom line.

    It is in the light of the foregoing that I have been speaking and it is in this light I’m still urging, with profound respect to our political leaders with profound respect to our leaders of thought, traditional religion, etc. to rethink Nigeria. God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria

  • Some key global determinants in 2025

    Some key global determinants in 2025

    GEO-Politics

    Trump 2.0

    In 2025; global and sub-regional peace and economics will continue to be impacted by geo-politics. Global geopolitics is significantly influenced by the strategic foreign policy direction of the United States of America (US), and it will continue to be so, under the leadership of the incoming President Donald Trump.

     President Donald Trump will be sworn in for his second term in office in the next 10 days to usher in the “Trump 2.0” era. The world is already witnessing the body language of President-Elect Trump, ramped up by his rhetoric and those of his allies within the United States of America and across the world. Billionaire Elon Musk, who Trump has assigned a role in his administration; is taking the lead in stirring up the hornet’s nest with provocative rhetoric, which are indicators of what will likely happen during the second tenure of President Trump. In the last couple of days, preparatory to his inaugural, he is posturing, and giving indications of his potential foreign policy strategic direction, which is more or less a furtherance of his position during his first tenure. He has consolidated the Make America Great Again (MAGA) mantra, by stepping up rhetoric against Canada, Panama, Greenland, etc., including the European Union with some verbal attacks on the UK Prime Minister, etc.

    Russia-Ukraine imbroglio

    In the case of Russia, President Vladimir Putin is not likely to shift ground but rather refine his mid to long-term strategy, especially with the emergence of President Trump as the 48thth President of the US, with whom he has had a better relationship than President Joe Biden. This is more so because, in my view, so far, President Putin’s strategy has been working more for him than the US and EU/NATO strategy for Ukraine. If the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio continues unabated without a change in the political strategy disposition, it will continue to impact negatively on global and national economies.

     During Trump 2.0, we also expect to see this year, a highly likely turnaround of events in the Russia-Ukrainian war, because of Donald Trump’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war, which is completely opposite that of President Joe Biden and his administration. President-Elect Trump did not hide the fact that he would like to bring to an end or force the hands of the players to see to an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war as against the push by President Joe Biden, the European Union and NATO who would rather continue supporting Ukraine, to continue  “fighting to a finish” against Russia, which in the opinions of many, including my humble self, will be costlier for Ukraine and Russia and indeed the global economy.

    Israel-Palestine conflict – The war in Gaza

    With regard to the Israeli-Palestinian war in Gaza, I don’t expect much to change, because the successive US Presidencies and administrations have maintained a fairly consistent strategic position and actions with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Therefore, in my view, in 2025 during Trump 2.0, I would not expect anything different. It will just be a scenario of the same actors in different costumes. I don’t expect the fortunes of the Palestinians to significantly change with regard to the US position to support or reduce support for the Israelis. In fact, in the last couple of days, President Trump has been very clear and unambiguous in saying he is going to be very brutal in fighting Hamas to the finish and be more assertive and decisive, which in his opinion will bring an end to the crisis. Whether that will be the solution or not will remain to be seen. But indeed, the position of the United States of America in this regard will not really change the fortunes of the Palestinians.

     Trump 2.0: What is in it for Africa?

    In my view, when it comes to Africa, whoever becomes the President of the United States of America, the US agenda for Africa will pretty much remain the same- nothing much of substance for us. The US and the Western powers will continue to feather their nests at the expense of Africa and Africa. Therefore, from the global geopolitical point of view, I do not expect significant positive changes.

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     Of course, it also speaks volumes with regard to the fact that “Africa is on its own”. We, the people of Africa in general and Nigeria in particular need to do the needful to come out of our political, and socio-economic doldrums. That being said, when the dynamics are escalated with global socio-economic impacts, for example, what is happening in Sudan, where the US and Russia are majorly unseen hands; then we should take note with regard to the political dynamism of the emergence of the next President of the United States of America, so that we can strategize, plan, hedge and position for better survival, growth and sustainable development.

    Sub-regional political impasse and rising insecurity in Africa

    The sub-regional political impasses and insecurity in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and Sudan. Indeed, the relationship between Trump, Putin, and the United Arab Emirates could likely play a role for Sudan, if the ruling Military regime is able to offer a deal to Donald Trump in trying to see how peace will come to the region.

    The European Union (EU) and NATO versus Trump

    The EU’s position as they engage President Trump with the threat of his “Tariff” strategy as his greatest political power leverage, will be another key determinant.

     With President-Elect Trump’s rhetoric regarding Greenland and his position regarding the Ukraine-Russia war; the EU and NATO need to recraft their strategy to counter President Trump’s strategy, in order to maintain a balance of political and socio-economic power around Europe. President Trump will have more allies in the European Union than he had during his first tenure; especially with the rise of popularity and rise to power of the far-right political parties, and movements across Europe; in Italy, Germany, France, the UK, etc. These far-right political leaders of some European countries, either as incumbents or as oppositions, will be key levers of power for Donald Trump to assert himself as a global game changer. How the EU is able to reposition itself or prepare itself for that will be interesting to watch

    Global economic trajectory

    According to the OECD’s (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) latest Economic outlook:

    •Global growth will remain resilient in 2025 despite significant risks due to; geopolitical tensions, high public debt ratios, etc.

    •The Outlook projects global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024, and 3.3% in 2026.

    •Inflation in the OECD is expected to ease further, from 5.4% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, supported by the still restrictive stance of monetary policy in most countries.

    •Headline inflation has already returned to central bank targets in nearly half of the advanced economies and close to 60% of emerging market economies

    •Growth prospects vary significantly across regions.

    BRICS

    The BRICS strategy is working, even though Donald Trump has been threatening sanctions for any Country that remains in BRICS. With 14 Countries joining the BRICS in the last 3 months with Indonesia being the latest to join some days ago, indicates the rising popularity of BRICS and its potential influence in the global geopolitics and economy. I reckon that BRICS will re-strategize to counter the potential counter-maneuver of Trump, which is critically driven by tariffs and sanctions.

    China

    According to China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE);

    In 2024, China experienced another year of economic slowdown, with the GDP growth rate declining to 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, down from 5.2 percent in 2023.

    China’s GDP growth rate will slow down further to 4.5 percent in 2025, with domestic demand playing a critical role in offsetting the slowdown in exports.

    A key point for China is Trump 2.0, which is based on incoming US President Trump’s consistent Trade War against China which he has ramped up, which could escalate power competition between China and the US. Trump is already calling for decoupling from China, which would not only have major negative consequences for China but also for the rest of the world. Trump will certainly leverage his Tariff Trade War strategy to counter China’s strategy to bypass US tariffs.

    Climate Change

    With the escalation of global warming in 2024 and the devastating humanitarian and socio-economic consequences on various countries and continents, the global climate change initiative will have to be consolidated, especially with the almost fallout and outcome of the COP29 which took place 2 months ago in Baku, Azerbaijan. Developing nations were not really dealt a good deal. To add more gloom to the fight against climate change is the emergence of Trump 2.0 because Trump is not favorably committed to the fight against climate change. The world has to move on without Trump in this regard and progress will depend on how the achievements made so far will be consolidated and progressed in the overall interest of the global stakeholders.

    Artificial Intelligence (AI)

    The rapid rate at which Artificial intelligence (AI) is growing and its impact across ecosystems and value chains is so fast that Countries and organizations that do not take the advent of AI seriously will not only be left behind in development but will suffer the devastating consequences of its threats and risks.

  • Critical succuess factors for 2025 budget

    Critical succuess factors for 2025 budget

    On Wednesday, 18th December 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Budget proposal in the sum of about N49.7 trillion to the National Assembly for consideration as the proposed 2025 Budget. The Budget which is the second budget of President Tinubu’s administration is a remarkable increase from the 2024 budget of N27.5 trillion. The President calls the 2025 budget, “The 2025 Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity”. Defense and Security, Infrastructure, Health, and Education Sectors have the highest budget allocations, highlighting the strategic priorities of the administration in 2025. as follows: Defense and Security: N4.91 trillion; Infrastructure: N4.06 trillion; Health: N2.48 trillion; Education: N3.52 trillion. Other key focus areas include; Investments in energy, transport, and public works, Human Capital Development, and Agriculture.

    2024 Budget Performance; According to Mr. President:

    •N14.55trn in revenue, meeting 75% of the target as of the third quarter, of 2024.

    •N21.60trn in expenditure, representing 85% in the third quarter, of 2024.

    •75% increase in revenue to the sum of N14.55 trillion

    •85% increase in expenditure representing 85% of its target.

    2025 Budget Assumptions:

    The proposed budget is based on the following Assumptions:

    •Base crude oil production assumption of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd).

    •Targeting N34.82trn in revenue to fund the budget.

    •Inflation will decline from the current rate of 34.6% to 15%

    •Exchange rate will improve from approximately N1,700/US$ to N1,500/US$

    •Reduced importation of petroleum products alongside increased export of finished petroleum products.

    •The Federal Government’s expenditure includes N15.81 trillion for debt servicing and a total of N13.08 trillion naira, or 3.89 percent of GDP.

    •Bumper harvests, driven by enhanced security, reducing reliance on food imports.

    •Increased foreign exchange inflows through Foreign Portfolio Investments.

    •Higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.

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    •Government expenditure in the same year is projected to be N47.90trn including N15.81trn for debt servicing.

    •A total of N13.08trn or 3.89% of GDP, will make up the budget deficit.

    The basis for Assumptions:

    The Federal Government is basing those projections on the following observations:

    •Projected reduced importation of petroleum products alongside increased export of finished petroleum products.

    •Projected Bumper harvests that will be driven by enhanced security, reducing reliance on food imports.

    •Increased foreign exchange inflows through Foreign Portfolio Investments.

    •Higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs.

     Critical Success Factors

    The Essence of the “Promise-Based Leadership” principle

    While the above assumptions and targets are highly ambitious; in my view, the high target setting will push the government to deliver the promises made to Nigerians.

     As a proponent of the “Promise-Based Leadership” principle, I urge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to ensure that some key tangible micro-economic and social impacts are achieved by the end of the first quarter of this year, in order to sustain the confidence and hope of Nigerians as they continue to brave the brutal socio-economic situations such as increasing cost of living, insecurity, corruption, unemployment, etc. Indeed Mr. President has restated his commitment to turning around the economy, as Nigerians continue to demonstrate uncommon resilience. But time is of the essence.

    Fiscal Discipline

    In addition to what I call, “Mr. President’s boldness of assertions”, I advocate for the inculcation of what I term, “the practicality of discipline, and the political will of execution”. By this, I mean that there should be an immediate alignment between Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Discipline. Budget performance is dependent largely on Fiscal discipline, without which; increased revenue, increased foreign direct investment, and investment in critical infrastructure will amount to nothing. Without Fiscal Discipline, the strategic visions of government, and action plans will either fail or will not be sustainable. Therefore, it is important that we continue remaining focused on prudence, containing wastages, blocking leakages eliminating procurement malpractices, and fighting corruption amongst other forms of Fiscal Discipline to ensure success

     Total stoppage of budget padding between the Executive arm and the legislative arms of government at federal and sub-national levels is another form of Fiscal indiscipline. For example, according to the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); in the 2021 budget, a budget padding of about N300 Billion was inserted in the Budget, while a budget padding of about 100 Billion was inserted in the 2022 budget by MDAs. Budget Padding must be contained or eliminated, if we are serious as a nation.

    Policy Consultation and Policy Coherence

    In order to consolidate the gains achieved in the 2024 budget and upscale that performance in 2025 so that Nigerians could feel the desired impacts; it is crucial for the government to pay attention to Policy Consultation, Policy Coordination, and Policy Coherence. They are key to achieving the set objectives in 2025 and beyond. To achieve policy coherence it is important to ensure that all existing policies and the policies that will be activated this year are not in conflict with each other, inconsistent, or counter-productive. As we have seen in some cases last year; where Mr. President had to backtrack on some policy decisions; such occurrences are avoidable if there is policy coherence. Policy inconsistencies are major weaknesses to governments, and threats to operating environments (public or private) with the attendant costly strategic, and socio-economic consequences.

     Going forward, there should be more interagency collaborations and policy consultations to ensure that government policies will not clash with other subsisting policies and to also ensure that new policies that will be approved, will not be counterproductive to/ or clash with existing policies – which in most cases further exacerbate the socioeconomic situation of Nigeria and Nigerians. It is therefore important for Ministers and Heads of Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to compare notes through policy consultation and coordination. We must also ensure that government policies either complement each other or add value to the entire policy framework or the overarching strategy of the administration of President Bola Tinubu. That is the only way to ensure sustainable success.

    Impact Assessments and Communication Strategy

    It is also worthy of note that public opinion is very important in a democracy. Therefore, as part of the communication strategy of this administration; in 2025, there should be consistent objective reviews of the impacts of policies, actions/inactions, and other decisions of government on the citizenry, the operating environments, and business climates.

     The feedback from the citizenry and public opinions regarding decisions of government or proposals of government are very important in gauging the impact of policies and governance and guiding the delivery of the mandate given to Mr. President by Nigerians. This is important, not just in the Executive Arm of government, but also in the Legislature and Judiciary. Hence, in 2025, I urge Nigerians to also dedicate time to continue holding political leaders at Federal, State, and Local Government levels accountable to ensure that they continue to deliver good governance.

    National Security

    Talking about insecurity is critical to ensuring territorial integrity and overcoming the socio-economic malaise in Nigeria. This is because the insecurity around the North-Western, North-Central, and also South-Eastern parts of Nigeria is hampering security, the well-being of citizens, food production, execution of major infrastructure projects, and the free movement of people, goods, and services. Insecurity has significantly impacted food security. The northern part of Nigeria is the food basket of the nation. There is a need for quick and sustainable solutions to insecurity. Unless the government tackles insecurity, we are taking two steps forward and three steps backward.

    Safeguarding Revenue Pipelines:

    I also hope that more drastic measures would be taken against anybody, group of people, or entities and their collaborators in government, who are involved in crude oil theft and crude oil pipeline vandalization, they should be treated and prosecuted as economic saboteurs without fear or favor.

    Ensuring the availability of Power to drive the Economy

    The issue of electricity production, transmission, and distribution, should be a matter of national priority for the administration of President Bola Ahmad Tinubu. We hope to see sustained efforts with clear, and tangible impacts in the short to mid-term Power is crucial to catalyze and reinvigorate the productive sector of Nigeria’s economy, and to support the provision of critical infrastructure going forward. Therefore, unless the issue of the availability of electricity is addressed, I dare say that President Tinubu will not achieve his objectives and Nigerians will continue to suffer.

    Efficient and Effective War Against Corruption:

    A sincere, objective, result-oriented, and transparent fight against corruption should be non-negotiable. Regulatory and law enforcement agencies like the EFCC and ICPC should be more result-oriented so that they move from the days of continuous prosecutions without tangible outcomes due to defective investigation, case-building, and prosecution strategy and operations. The fight against corruption should no longer be lip service but actionable, efficient, effective, and more impactful.

    Our Critical Success Factors include:

    •Quintessential leadership at the top

    •Cutting/ containing the cost of governance

    • Prudence in government spending at the top, across, and to be cascaded down the

    structure and system of governance

    •Blockage of leakages and wastages in government

    •Zero tolerance to non-performance across all MDAs

    •Zero tolerance to all forms of economic sabotage